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NASA NTRS2014

Sensitivity of Air Quality to Potential Future Climate Change and Emissions in the United States and Major Cities

Simulated present and future air quality is compared for the years 2006e2010 and 2048e2052 over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Regionally downscaled present and future climate results are developed using GISS and the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. Present and future emissions are estimated using MARKAL 9R model. O3 and PM(sub 2.5) sensitivities to precursor emissions for the years 2010 and 2050 are calculated using CMAQDDM (Direct Decoupled Method). We find major improvements in future U.S. air quality including generally decreased MDA8 (maximum daily 8-hr average O3) mixing ratios and PM(sub 2.5) concentrations and reduced frequency of NAAQS O3 standard exceedances in most major U.S. cities. The Eastern and Pacific U.S. experience the largest reductions in summertime seasonal average MDA8 (up to 12 ppb) with localized decreases in the 4th highest MDA8 of the year, decreasing by up to 25 ppb. Results from a Climate Penalty (CP) scenario isolate the impact of climate change on air quality and show that future climate change tends to increase O3 mixing ratios in some regions of the U.S., with climate change causing increases of over 10 ppb in the annual 4th highest MDA8 in Los Angeles. Seasonal average PM(sub 2.5) decreases (2-4 microgram m(exp -3)) over the Eastern U.S. are accounted for by decreases in sulfate and nitrate concentrations resulting from reduced mobile and point source emissions of NO(sub x) and SO(sub x).

Projecting emissions↗

NASA NTRS1994

Modeling tropical Pacific sea surface temperature with satellite-derived solar radiative forcing

Two independent datasets for the solar radiation at the surface derived from satellites are compared. The data derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) is for the net solar radiation at the surface whereas the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data is for the downward flux only and was corrected with a space- and time-varying albedo. The ISCCP net flux is at all times higher than the ERBE flux. The difference can be divided into an offset that decreases with latitude and another component that correlates with high tropical cloud cover. With this latter exception the two datasets provide spatial patterns of solar flux that are very similar. A tropical Pacific Ocean model is forced with these two datasets and observed climatological winds. The upward heat flux is parameterized taking into account separately the longwave radiative, latent, and sensible heat fluxes. Best fit values for the uncertain parameters are found using an optimization procedure that seeks to minimize the difference between model and observed SST by varying the parameters within a reasonable range of uncertainty. The SST field the model produces with the best fit parameters is the best the model can do. If the differences between the model and data are larger than can be accounted for by remaining uncertainties in the heat flux parameterization and forcing data then the ocean model must be held to be at fault. Using this method of analysis, a fundamental model fault is identified. Inadequate treatment of mixed layer/entrainment processes in upwelling regions of the eastern tropical Pacific leads to a large and seasonally varying error in the model SST. Elsewhere the model SST is insufficiently different from observed to be able to identify model errors.

Seager, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1992

Estimating new production in the equatorial Pacific Ocean at 150 deg W

A major goal of the WEC88 cruise of the R/V Wecoma to the equatorial Pacific (made in February-March 1988) was to establish rates of new production along a meridional section at 150 deg W and to compare these measured rates with the relatively high values for the equatorial Pacific that had been reported previously using indirect methods and models. Production values were obtained from the traditional approach using N-15 labeled nitrate uptake, and by using C-14 fixation values multiplied by f (proportion of new production) from various sources: from N-15 data, from a C-14 fixation-versus-f relationship, or from a nitrate-versus-f relationship. The ratios of directly measured nitrate and carbon uptake and the ratios of nitrate to nitrate plus ammonium uptake, i.e., values of f, agree well; values of f calculated from carbon uptake or from nitrate concentration are overestimates for the equatorial upwelling region. Carbon-to-nitrogen uptake ratios measured with C-14 and N-15, respectively, approximate the Redfield molar ratio, 6.6 C:N. The overall mean value of f (0.17) helps confirm the view that the low primary production in the enriched eastern equatorial Pacific is due to failure of the nitrate-uptake system.

Dugdale, Richard C.↗

NASA NTRS1982

SEASAT views oceans and sea ice with synthetic aperture radar

Fifty-one SEASAT synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of the oceans and sea ice are presented. Surface and internal waves, the Gulf Stream system and its rings and eddies, the eastern North Pacific, coastal phenomena, bathymetric features, atmospheric phenomena, and ship wakes are represented. Images of arctic pack and shore-fast ice are presented. The characteristics of the SEASAT SAR system and its image are described. Maps showing the area covered, and tables of key orbital information, and listing digitally processed images are provided.

Fu, L. L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Observations of oceanic surface-wind fields from the Nimbus-7 microwave radiometer

Brightness temperatures from the five-frequency dual-polarized scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) on Nimbus 7 have been used to obtain surface wind fields over the ocean. The satellite-derived wind field for 1200Z, Feb. 19, 1979, in the eastern North Pacific has been compared with an operationally generated surface-wind analysis field. Previous point comparisons at selected locations have indicated that satellite winds are accurate to 3 m/sec. The results, although of a preliminary nature, indicate that SMMR-derived winds may be used to determine large-scale wind fields over the ocean, particularly in areas of strong wind gradients such as found in cyclonic systems.

Miller, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Equatorial long waves in geostationary satellite observations and in a multichannel sea surface temperature analysis

Geostationary satellite observations of a zonally oriented sea surface temperature front in the eastern equatorial Pacific were made between 1975 and 1981. Long waves appeared along the front mainly during the summer and fall, except during 1976, the year of an El Nino. The waves have averaged periods of 25 days and wavelengths of 1000 km. At the end of 1981, the long waves also were detected in a new sea surface temperature analysis based on multichannel infrared measurements from a polar-orbiting satellite. This quantitative analysis may improve the ability to resolve low-frequency equatorial wave motions from satellite observations.

Legeckis, R.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Application of satellite data to tropic/subtropic moisture coupling

The objective is to utilize various satellite products from a number of satellites together with data observed from platforms available during the FGGE Special Observing Periods to diagnose synoptic scale events in date void regions. The focus is on episodes of northeastward traveling cloud bands which move out of the ITCZ over the eastern North Pacific Ocean. These events are called moisture bursts.

Thompson, A. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Sea surface temperatures from VAS MSI data

A procedure is developed for estimating sea surface temperatures from multispectral image data acquired from the VISSR atmospheric sounder on the geostationary GOES satellites. Theoretical regression equations for two and three infrared window channels are empirically tuned using clear field of view satellite radiances matched with reports of SST from NOAA fixed environmental buoys. The empirical regression equations are then used to produce daily regional analyses of SST. Monthly mean SST's for the western North Atlantic and the eastern equatorial Pacific during March and July 1982 were produced for use in the SST Intercomparison Workshop Series. Workshop results showed VAS SST's have a scatter of 0.8-1.0 C and a slight warm bias with respect to the other measurements of SST. The VAS SST's show no discernible bias in the region of El Chichon volcanic aerosol cloud.

Bates, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The ARGOS system used for tracking gray whales

The development of satellite whale tags used to track gray whales in the eastern north Pacific Ocean is summarized. Two gray whales were radio-tagged in San Ignacio Lagoon (Mexico) and tracked on their northbound migration. One of the transmitters was modified to record and relay depth-of-dive information at 15 sec intervals throughout the course of the dive. Technical elements of data acquisition and analysis are outlined. The major biological findings are discussed.

Mate, B. R.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Error trends in SASS winds as functions of atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature

Wind speed measurements obtained with the scatterometer instrument aboard the Seasat satellite are compared equivalent neutral wind measurements obtained from ship reports in the western N. Atlantic and eastern N. Pacific where the concentration of ship reports are high and the ranges of atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature are large. It is found that at low wind speeds the difference between satellite measurements and surface reports depends on sea surface temperature. At wind speeds higher than 8 m/s the dependence was greatly reduced. The removal of systematic errors due to fluctuations in atmospheric stability reduced the r.m.s. difference from 1.7 m/s to 0.8 m/s. It is suggested that further clarification of the effects of fluctuations in atmospheric stability on Seasat wind speed measurements should increase their reliability in the future.

Liu, W. T.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Estimating ocean production from satellite-derived chlorophyll - Insights from the EASTROPAC data set

The EASTROPAC expedition took place in 1967-68 in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Primary production was related to near-surface chlorophyll in these data. Much of the variability in the relation was due to the light-history of the phytoplankton and its photoadaptive state. This was due to changes in the depth of mixing of the surface waters more than changes in insolation. Accurate estimates of production from satellite chlorophyll measurements may require knowledge of the temporal and spatial variation in mixing of this region.

Eppley, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Equatorial long-wave characteristics determined from satellite sea surface temperature and in situ data

SST maps and imagery derived from the NOAA 6 satellite AVHRR for June and July 1981 in the eastern tropical Pacific portray the wavelike structure of the cool water along the equator from 93 deg W to 125 deg W. Cusped waves of approximately 1000-km zonal wavelength and 25-day period propagated westward with a phase speed of 40 km/day. The observed meridional extent between the crest and trough of the waves is about 300 km. Details in the imagery show cooler water at the cusps advected north and then east with the north equatorial countercurrent (NECC), consistent with the suggestion of a series of anticyclonic eddies occupying the shear zone between the NECC and the westward flowing south equatorial current. Absolute SST estimates from the AVHRR data agree to within 0.6 C with shipboard data taken along 110 deg W between 5 deg N and 5 deg S. The wavelike structures in the SST maps are also in agreement at the surface with a vertical expendable bathythermograph temperature section made along the equator between 93 deg W and 125 deg W, which shows the phase of the waves tilting westward with increasing depth over the upper 75 m. Such a phase shift, if it extended 100-200 km meridionally in either direction from the equator, would be associated with an equatorward flux of heat. Similar phase shifts appear in temperature time series at depths of 20 and 50 m, from a mooring at 0-deg 33-min N, 110-deg 30-min W. Near-surface currents measured at this and a second mooring on the equator at 109-deg 40-min W indicate a regular pattern of northward advection when wave cusps pass them, followed by southwest flow during the passage of wave troughs, again consistent with an equatorward flux of heat, as well as with earlier theoretical and drift buoy findings.

Pullen, Patricia E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Moisture transports and budgets of 'moisture bursts'

The paper discusses moisture fluxes and budgets associated with a pair of 'moisture bursts' in the eastern North Pacific Ocean area, described by Smith et al. (1985). The moisture fluxes were calculated using data obtained during the first Special Observing Period (SOP-1) of the FGGE. The area specifically examined extended from the equator to the latitude 20 deg N and from longitude 180 deg to 100 deg W, with concentration on the region south and southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. From the comparison of the calculations based on dropwindsonde and radiosonde data and reports from commercial and military aircraft, it is concluded that the calculations of water vapor flow across latitude lines probably provide a fair representation of reality, especially when based on the dropwindsonde data. However, water vapor flow out of small volumes is not well represented by the results from either data.

Thompson, A. H.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A predictive monsoon signal in the surface level thermal field over India

The mean monthly surface thermal field over India during the premonsoon months March-May, based on mean monthly-temperature/minimum-temperature/maximum-temperature data from the network of 119 stations, was examined with the objective of locating significant predictor parameters for forecasting Indian monsoon rainfall. The results of linear correlation analysis bring out three areas for which the relationships between Indian monsoon rainfalls and the area average of mean monthly minimum temperature for April or for May were found to be significant. The best correlation was found for the southern peninsular area, where the mean May minimum temperature is significantly related to the 500 mB April ridge, a tendency in the Southern Oscillation Index, and a tendency in eastern equatorial Pacific SST.

Mooley, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Large-scale cyclogenesis

The development of several major cases of persistent negative height anomalies over the extratropical central North Pacific and eastern North Atlantic regions was investigated. These events were manifested at the surface by the development of large-scale cyclonic circulations and, at upper levels, by the formation of anomalously intense zonal jets. The data for the analyses were obtained from the twice-daily NMC final analyses of Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure as well as geopotential heights, winds, and temperatures at all standard levels from 1000 mb to 100 mb for the fourteen winter seasons from years 1963-1964 through 1976-1977. The results indicate that, in many cases of cyclogenesis, baroclinic processes are likely to play an important role in the initial developments. At later stages, barotropic processes also provide significant contributions and play a role in the maintenance of the anomalies once they are established.

Dole, Randall M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A new method for estimating the turbulent heat flux at the bottom of the daily mixed layer

Temperature data in the mixed layer and net solar irradiance data at the sea surface are used to estimate the vertical turbulent heat flux at the bottom of the daily mixed layer. The method is applied to data obtained in the eastern tropical Pacific, where the daily cycle in the temperature field is confined to the upper 10-25 m. Equatorial turbulence measurements indicate that the turbulent heat flux is much greater during nighttime than daytime.

Imawaki, Shiro↗

NASA NTRS1989

On the statistics of El Nino occurrences and the relationship of El Nino to volcanic and solar/geomagnetic activity

El Nino is conventionally defined as an anomalous and persistent warming of the waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru in the eastern equatorial Pacific, having onset usually in Southern Hemispheric summer/fall. Some of the statistical aspects of El Nino occurrences are examined, especially as they relate to the normal distribution and to possible associations with volcanic, solar, and geomagnetic activity. With regard to the very strong El Nino of 1982 to 1983, it is noted that, although it may very well be related to the 1982 eruptions of El Chichon, the event occurred essentially on time (with respect to the past behavior of elapsed times between successive El Nino events; a moderate-to-stronger El Nino was expected during the interval 1978 to 1982, assuming that El Nino occurrences are normally distributed, having a mean elapsed time between successive onsets of 4 years and a standard deviation of 2 years and a last known occurrence in 1976). Also, although not widely recognized, the whole of 1982 was a record year for geomagnetic activity (based on the aa geomagnetic index, with the aa index registering an all time high in February 1982), perhaps, important for determining a possible trigger for this and other El Nino events. A major feature is an extensive bibliography (325 entries) on El Nino and volcanic-solar-geomagnetic effects on climate. Also, included is a tabular listing of the 94 major volcanic eruptions of 1835 to 1986.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Time scales and variability of area-averaged tropical oceanic rainfall

A statistical analysis of time series of area-averaged rainfall over the oceans has been conducted around the diurnal time scale. The results of this analysis can be applied directly to the problem of establishing the magnitude of expected errors to be incurred in the estimation of monthly area-averaged rain rate from low orbiting satellites. Such statistics as the mean, standard deviation, integral time scale of background red noise, and spectral analyses were performed on time series of the GOES precipitation index taken at 3-hour intervals during the period spanning December 19, 1987 to March 31, 1988 over the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The analyses have been conducted on 2.5 x 2.5 deg and 5 x 5 deg grid boxes, separately. The study shows that rainfall measurements by a sun-synchronous satellite visiting a spot twice per day will include a bias due to the existence of the semidiurnal cycle in the SPCZ ranging from 5 to 10 percentage points. The bias in the ITCZ may be of the order of 5 percentage points.

Shin, Kyung-Sup↗