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At least 271 records · Page 15

Systems engineering and integration: Cost estimation and benefits analysis

Space Transportation Avionics hardware and software cost has traditionally been estimated in Phase A and B using cost techniques which predict cost as a function of various cost predictive variables such as weight, lines of code, functions to be performed, quantities of test hardware, quantities of flight hardware, design and development heritage, complexity, etc. The output of such analyses has been life cycle costs, economic benefits and related data. The major objectives of Cost Estimation and Benefits analysis are twofold: (1) to play a role in the evaluation of potential new space transportation avionics technologies, and (2) to benefit from emerging technological innovations. Both aspects of cost estimation and technology are discussed here. The role of cost analysis in the evaluation of potential technologies should be one of offering additional quantitative and qualitative information to aid decision-making. The cost analyses process needs to be fully integrated into the design process in such a way that cost trades, optimizations and sensitivities are understood. Current hardware cost models tend to primarily use weights, functional specifications, quantities, design heritage and complexity as metrics to predict cost. Software models mostly use functionality, volume of code, heritage and complexity as cost descriptive variables. Basic research needs to be initiated to develop metrics more responsive to the trades which are required for future launch vehicle avionics systems. These would include cost estimating capabilities that are sensitive to technological innovations such as improved materials and fabrication processes, computer aided design and manufacturing, self checkout and many others. In addition to basic cost estimating improvements, the process must be sensitive to the fact that no cost estimate can be quoted without also quoting a confidence associated with the estimate. In order to achieve this, better cost risk evaluation techniques are needed as well as improved usage of risk data by decision-makers. More and better ways to display and communicate cost and cost risk to management are required.

Dean, ED↗

Improving Simulated Annealing by Replacing Its Variables with Game-Theoretic Utility Maximizers

The game-theory field of Collective INtelligence (COIN) concerns the design of computer-based players engaged in a non-cooperative game so that as those players pursue their self-interests, a pre-specified global goal for the collective computational system is achieved as a side-effect. Previous implementations of COIN algorithms have outperformed conventional techniques by up to several orders of magnitude, on domains ranging from telecommunications control to optimization in congestion problems. Recent mathematical developments have revealed that these previously developed algorithms were based on only two of the three factors determining performance. Consideration of only the third factor would instead lead to conventional optimization techniques like simulated annealing that have little to do with non-cooperative games. In this paper we present an algorithm based on all three terms at once. This algorithm can be viewed as a way to modify simulated annealing by recasting it as a non-cooperative game, with each variable replaced by a player. This recasting allows us to leverage the intelligent behavior of the individual players to substantially improve the exploration step of the simulated annealing. Experiments are presented demonstrating that this recasting significantly improves simulated annealing for a model of an economic process run over an underlying small-worlds topology. Furthermore, these experiments reveal novel small-worlds phenomena, and highlight the shortcomings of conventional mechanism design in bounded rationality domains.

Wolpert, David H.↗

Research in the design of high-performance reconfigurable systems

Computer aided design and computer aided manufacturing have the potential for greatly reducing the cost and lead time in the development of VLSI components. This potential paves the way for the design and fabrication of a wide variety of economically feasible high level functional units. It was observed that current computer systems have only a limited capacity to absorb new VLSI component types other than memory, microprocessors, and a relatively small number of other parts. The first purpose is to explore a system design which is capable of effectively incorporating a considerable number of VLSI part types and will both increase the speed of computation and reduce the attendant programming effort. A second purpose is to explore design techniques for VLSI parts which when incorporated by such a system will result in speeds and costs which are optimal. The proposed work may lay the groundwork for future efforts in the extensive simulation and measurements of the system's cost effectiveness and lead to prototype development.

Mcewan, S. D.↗

Integrating Growth Stage Deficit Irrigation into a Process Based Crop Model

Current rates of agricultural water use are unsustainable in many regions, creating an urgent need to identify improved irrigation strategies for water limited areas. Crop models can be used to quantify plant water requirements, predict the impact of water shortages on yield, and calculate water productivity (WP) to link water availability and crop yields for economic analyses. Many simulations of crop growth and development, especially in regional and global assessments, rely on automatic irrigation algorithms to estimate irrigation dates and amounts. However, these algorithms are not well suited for water limited regions because they have simplistic irrigation rules, such as a single soil-moisture based threshold, and assume unlimited water. To address this constraint, a new modeling framework to simulate agricultural production in water limited areas was developed. The framework consists of a new automatic irrigation algorithm for the simulation of growth stage based deficit irrigation under limited seasonal water availability; and optimization of growth stage specific parameters. The new automatic irrigation algorithm was used to simulate maize and soybean in Gainesville, Florida, and first used to evaluate the sensitivity of maize and soybean simulations to irrigation at different growth stages and then to test the hypothesis that water productivity calculated using simplistic irrigation rules underestimates WP. In the first experiment, the effect of irrigating at specific growth stages on yield and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) in maize and soybean was evaluated. In the reproductive stages, IWUE tended to be higher than in the vegetative stages (e.g. IWUE was 18% higher than the well watered treatment when irrigating only during R3 in soybean), and when rainfall events were less frequent. In the second experiment, water productivity (WP) was significantly greater with optimized irrigation schedules compared to non-optimized irrigation schedules in water restricted scenarios. For example, the mean WP across 38 years of maize production was 1.1 kg/cu m for non-optimized irrigation schedules with 50 mm of seasonal available water and 2.1 kg/cu m optimized ion schedules, a 91% improvement in WP with optimized irrigation schedules. The framework described in this work could be used to estimate WP for regional to global assessments, as well as derive location specific irrigation guidance.

crop model↗

GeoXO Ocean Color Instrument (OCX) Spatial and Temporal Coverage Assessment

NOAA’s next generation Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) satellite system will advance Earth observations from geostationary orbit. GeoXO will supply vital information supporting the U.S. weather, ocean, and climate operations. The recommended three-satellite constellation includes spacecrafts at the current GOES-East and GOES-West positions that will carry an imager, lightning mapper, and an ocean color (OCX) instrument. In this poster we describe an assessment of U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) availability for OCX observations, based on EEZ view geometry, solar angle range over the year, sun glint, as well as cloud climatology. The availability for observations for each EEZ region is estimated per day of the year, as function of atmospheric mass factor (AMF) and sun glint. In addition, cloud climatology – based on statistics derived from three years of GOES-16 ABI cloud mask – is considered to determine the fraction of cloud-free OCX observations for each region as function of time of day and season. The results of such assessments can be used to optimize OCX collections and potentially explore regions outside the EEZ.

Boryana Efremova↗

On designing for quality

The problem of ensuring the required quality of products and/or technological processes often becomes more difficult due to the fact that there is not general theory of determining the optimal sets of value of the primary factors, i.e., of the output parameters of the parts and units comprising an object and ensuring the correspondence of the object's parameters to the quality requirements. This is the main reason for the amount of time taken to finish complex vital article. To create this theory, one has to overcome a number of difficulties and to solve the following tasks: the creation of reliable and stable mathematical models showing the influence of the primary factors on the output parameters; finding a new technique of assigning tolerances for primary factors with regard to economical, technological, and other criteria, the technique being based on the solution of the main problem; well reasoned assignment of nominal values for primary factors which serve as the basis for creating tolerances. Each of the above listed tasks is of independent importance. An attempt is made to give solutions for this problem. The above problem dealing with quality ensuring an mathematically formalized aspect is called the multiple inverse problem.

Vajingortin, L. D.↗

Internally insulated thermal storage system development program

A cost effective thermal storage system for a solar central receiver power system using molten salt stored in internally insulated carbon steel tanks is described. Factors discussed include: testing of internal insulation materials in molten salt; preliminary design of storage tanks, including insulation and liner installation; optimization of the storage configuration; and definition of a subsystem research experiment to demonstrate the system. A thermal analytical model and analysis of a thermocline tank was performed. Data from a present thermocline test tank was compared to gain confidence in the analytical approach. A computer analysis of the various storage system parameters (insulation thickness, number of tanks, tank geometry, etc.,) showed that (1) the most cost-effective configuration was a small number of large cylindrical tanks, and (2) the optimum is set by the mechanical constraints of the system, such as soil bearing strength and tank hoop stress, not by the economics.

Scott, O. L.↗

Parametric Study Conducted of Rocket- Based, Combined-Cycle Nozzles

Having reached the end of the 20th century, our society is quite familiar with the many benefits of recycling and reusing the products of civilization. The high-technology world of aerospace vehicle design is no exception. Because of the many potential economic benefits of reusable launch vehicles, NASA is aggressively pursuing this technology on several fronts. One of the most promising technologies receiving renewed attention is Rocket-Based, Combined-Cycle (RBCC) propulsion. This propulsion method combines many of the efficiencies of high-performance jet aircraft with the power and high-altitude capability of rocket engines. The goal of the present work at the NASA Lewis Research Center is to further understand the complex fluid physics within RBCC engines that govern system performance. This work is being performed in support of NASA's Advanced Reusable Technologies program. A robust RBCC engine design optimization demands further investigation of the subsystem performance of the engine's complex propulsion cycles. The RBCC propulsion system under consideration at Lewis is defined by four modes of operation in a singlestage- to-orbit configuration. In the first mode, the engine functions as a rocket-driven ejector. When the rocket engine is switched off, subsonic combustion (mode 2) is present in the ramjet mode. As the vehicle continues to accelerate, supersonic combustion (mode 3) occurs in the ramjet mode. Finally, as the edge of the atmosphere is approached and the engine inlet is closed off, the rocket is reignited and the final accent to orbit is undertaken in an all-rocket mode (mode 4). The performance of this fourth and final mode is the subject of this present study. Performance is being monitored in terms of the amount of thrust generated from a given amount of propellant.

Steffen, Christopher J., Jr.↗

Source circuit design considerations

The cost of several circuit configurations for large (5MW) array fields were investigated to assess the relative costs of high and low voltage configurations. Three source circuit NOC voltages were evaluated: 400V (ungrounded), 800V (+ or 400V center grounded), and 2000V (+ or - 1000V center grounded). Four source circuit configurations were considered for each of the three NOC voltages. The configurations correspond to source circuit currents of 15, 30, 45, and 60 amperes, respectively. Conceptual layouts for 5MW building blocks for each of the above configurations were developed. The designs were optimized to minimize BOS electrical and structural costs. Only the BOS electrical costs were evaluated. The designs were broken down into the following elements for cost: (1) basic source circuit intermodule wiring, bypass diodes and associated hardware, source circuit to J-Box wiring, etc; (2) J-Box blocking diodes, varistors, heat sinks, and housing; (3) disconnects source circuit disconnects, fuses, and housing; (4) bus cabling J-Box to PCU interface wiring, and trenching; (5) interface bus bar, group disconnects, and fuses; and (6) fault detection shunts, signal wire, electronics, and alarm. It is concluded that high voltage low current circuits are not economical, at higher currents high and low voltage circuit costs approach each other, high voltage circuits are not likely to offer near term advantage, and development work/manufacturer stimulation is needed to develop low cost high voltage hardware.

Noel, G. T.↗

A Vision and Roadmap for Increasing User Autonomy in Flight Operations in the National Airspace

The purpose of Air Transportation is to move people and cargo safely, efficiently and swiftly to their destinations. The companies and individuals who use aircraft for this purpose, the airspace users, desire to operate their aircraft according to a dynamically optimized business trajectory for their specific mission and operational business model. In current operations, the dynamic optimization of business trajectories is limited by constraints built into operations in the National Airspace System (NAS) for reasons of safety and operational needs of the air navigation service providers. NASA has been developing and testing means to overcome many of these constraints and permit operations to be conducted closer to the airspace user's changing business trajectory as conditions unfold before and during the flight. A roadmap of logical steps progressing toward increased user autonomy is proposed, beginning with NASA's Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR) concept that enables flight crews to make informed, deconflicted flight-optimization requests to air traffic control. These steps include the use of data communications for route change requests and approvals, integration with time-based arrival flow management processes under development by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), increased user authority for defining and modifying downstream, strategic portions of the trajectory, and ultimately application of self-separation. This progression takes advantage of existing FAA NextGen programs and RTCA standards development, and it is designed to minimize the number of hardware upgrades required of airspace users to take advantage of these advanced capabilities to achieve dynamically optimized business trajectories in NAS operations. The roadmap is designed to provide operational benefits to first adopters so that investment decisions do not depend upon a large segment of the user community becoming equipped before benefits can be realized. The issues of equipment certification and operational approval of new procedures are addressed in a way that minimizes their impact on the transition by deferring a change in the assignment of separation responsibility until a large body of operational data is available to support the safety case for this change in the last roadmap step.This paper will relate the roadmap steps to ongoing activities to clarify the economics-based transition to these technologies for operational use.

Cotton, William B.↗

Solar dynamic power for the Space Station

This paper describes a computer code which provides a significant advance in the systems analysis capabilities of solar dynamic power modules. While the code can be used to advantage in the preliminary analysis of terrestrial solar dynamic modules its real value lies in the adaptions which make it particularly useful for the conceptualization of optimized power modules for space applications. In particular, as illustrated in the paper, the code can be used to establish optimum values of concentrator diameter, concentrator surface roughness, concentrator rim angle and receiver aperture corresponding to the main heat cycle options - Organic Rankine and Brayton - and for certain receiver design options. The code can also be used to establish system sizing margins to account for the loss of reflectivity in orbit or the seasonal variation of insolation. By the simulation of the interactions among the major components of a solar dynamic module and through simplified formulations of the major thermal-optic-thermodynamic interactions the code adds a powerful, efficient and economic analytical tool to the repertory of techniques available for the design of advanced space power systems.

Archer, J. S.↗

Total systems design analysis of high performance structures

Designer-control parameters were identified at interdiscipline interfaces to optimize structural systems performance and downstream development and operations with reliability and least life-cycle cost. Interface tasks and iterations are tracked through a matrix of performance disciplines integration versus manufacturing, verification, and operations interactions for a total system design analysis. Performance integration tasks include shapes, sizes, environments, and materials. Integrity integrating tasks are reliability and recurring structural costs. Significant interface designer control parameters were noted as shapes, dimensions, probability range factors, and cost. Structural failure concept is presented, and first-order reliability and deterministic methods, benefits, and limitations are discussed. A deterministic reliability technique combining benefits of both is proposed for static structures which is also timely and economically verifiable. Though launch vehicle environments were primarily considered, the system design process is applicable to any surface system using its own unique filed environments.

Verderaime, V.↗

Experiments on solar photovoltaic power generation using concentrator and liquid cooling

Calculations and experimental data are presented leading to the development of a practical, economical solar photovoltaic power supply. The concept involves concentration of sunlight up to about 100 times normal solar intensity in a solar tracking collector and directing this to an array of solar cells. The cells are immersed in water circulated from a thermal reservoir which limits cell temperature rise to about 20 C above ambient during the day and which cools to ambient temperature during the night. Experiments were conducted on solar cells using a Fresnel lens for magnification, a telescope equatorial mount with clock drive, and tap water circulated through the solar cell holder cavity. Test results show that cells operate satisfactorily under these conditions. Power outputs achieved experimentally with cell optimized for 25 suns were linear with concentration to about 15 suns. Cells optimized for 100 suns were not available, but a corresponding linear relation of power output with concentration is anticipated. Test results have been used in a design analysis of the cost of systems utilizing this technique.

Beam, B. H.↗

Laser-zone growth in a Ribbon-To-Ribbon (RTR) process. Silicon sheet growth development for the large area silicon sheet task of the low cost silicon solar array project

The Ribbon-to-Ribbon (RTR) approach to silicon ribbon growth is investigated. An existing RTR apparatus is to be upgraded to its full capabilities and operated routinely to investigate and optimize the effects of various growth parameters on growth results. A new RTR apparatus was constructed to incorporate increased capabilities and improvements over the first apparatus and to be capable of continuous growth. New high power lasers were implemented and this led to major improvements in growth velocity -- 4 inch/min. growth has been demonstrated. A major step in demonstration of the full feasibility of the RTR process is reported in the demonstration of RTR growth from CVD polyribbon rather than sliced polyribbon ingots. Average solar cell efficiencies of greater than 9% and a best cell efficiency of 11.7% are reported. Processing was shown to provide a substantial improvement in material minority carrier diffusion length. An economic analysis is reported which treats both the polyribbon fabrication and RTR processes.

Gurtler, R. W.↗

Grid-Tied Photovoltaic Power System

A grid-tied photovoltaic (PV) power system is connected directly to the utility distribution grid. Facility power can be obtained from the utility system as normal. The PV system is synchronized with the utility system to provide power for the facility, and excess power is provided to the utility. Operating costs of a PV power system are low compared to conventional power technologies. This method can displace the highest-cost electricity during times of peak demand in most climatic regions, and thus reduce grid loading. Net metering is often used, in which independent power producers such as PV power systems are connected to the utility grid via the customers main service panels and meters. When the PV power system is generating more power than required at that location, the excess power is provided to the utility grid. The customer pays the net of the power purchased when the on-site power demand is greater than the onsite power production, and the excess power is returned to the utility grid. Power generated by the PV system reduces utility demand, and the surplus power aids the community. Modern PV panels are readily available, reliable, efficient, and economical, with a life expectancy of at least 25 years. Modern electronics have been the enabling technology behind grid-tied power systems, making them safe, reliable, efficient, and economical with a life expectancy equal to the modern PV panels. The grid-tied PV power system was successfully designed and developed, and this served to validate the basic principles developed, and the theoretical work that was performed. Grid-tied PV power systems are reliable, maintenance- free, long-life power systems, and are of significant value to NASA and the community. Of particular value are the analytical tools and capabilities that have been successfully developed. Performance predictions can be made confidently for grid-tied PV systems of various scales. The work was done under the NASA Hybrid Power Management (HPM) Program, which is the integration of diverse power devices in an optimal configuration for space and terrestrial applications.

Eichenberg, Dennis J.↗

High density Schottky barrier IRCCD sensors for SWIR applications at intermediate temperature

Monolithic 32 x 64 and 64 x 1:128 palladium silicide (Pd2Si) interline transfer infrared charge coupled devices (IRCCDs) sensitive in the 1 to 3.5 micron spectral band were developed. This silicon imager exhibits a low response nonuniformity of typically 0.2 to 1.6% rms, and was operated in the temperature range between 40 to 140 K. Spectral response measurements of test Pd2Si p-type Si devices yield quantum efficiencies of 7.9% at 1.25 microns, 5.6% at 1.65 microns 2.2% at 2.22 microns. Improvement in quantum efficiency is expected by optimizing the different structural parameters of the Pd2Si detectors. The spectral response of the Pd2Si detectors fit a modified Fowler emission model. The measured photo-electric barrier height for the Pd2Si detectors is 0.34 eV and the measured quantum efficiency coefficient, C1, is 19%/eV. The dark current level of Pd2Si Schottky barrier focal plane arrays (FPAs) is sufficiently low to enable operation at intermediate temperatures at TV frame rates. Typical dark current level measured at 120 K on the FPA is 2 nA/sq cm. The operating temperature of the Pd2Si FPA is compatible with passive cooler performance. In addition, high density Pd2Si Schottky barrier FPAs are manufactured with high yield and therefore represent an economical approach to short wavelength IR imaging. A Pd2Si Schottky barrier image sensor for push-broom multispectral imaging in the 1.25, 1.65, and 2.22 micron bands is being studied. The sensor will have two line arrays (dual band capability) of 512 detectors each, with 30 micron center-to-center detector spacing. The device will be suitable for chip-to-chip abutment, thus providing the capability to produce large, multiple chip focal planes with contiguous, in-line sensors.

Elabd, H.↗

Zero Boil Off Cryogen Storage for Future Launchers

Zero boil off (ZBO) cryogen storage using both cryocoolers and passive insulation technologies will enable long-term exploration missions by allowing designers to optimize tankage without the need for excess cryogen storage to account for boil off. Studies of ZBO (zero boil off) have been on-going in the USA for several years. More recently, a review of the needs of advanced space propulsion took place in Europe. This showed the interest of the European community in cryogenic propulsion for planetary missions as well as the use of liquid hydrogen for large power electric propulsion (manned Mars missions). Although natural boiling could be acceptable for single leg missions, passive insulation techniques yield roughly a I% per month cryogen loss and this would not be cost effective for robotic planetary missions involving storage times greater than one year. To make economic sense, long-term exploration missions require lower tank capacity and longer storage times. Recent advances in cryocooler technology, resulting in vast improvements in both cooler efficiency and reliability, make ZBO is a clear choice for planetary exploration missions. Other, more near term applications of ZBO include boil-off reduction or elimination applied to first and upper stages of future earth-to-orbit (ETO) launchers. This would extend launch windows and reduce infrastructure costs. Successors to vehicles like Ariane 5 could greatly benefit by implementing ZBO. Zero Boil Off will only be successful in ETO launcher applications if it makes economic sense to implement. The energy cost is only a fraction of the total cost of buying liquid cryogen, the rest being transportation and other overhead. Because of this, higher boiling point cryogens will benefit more from on-board liquefaction, thus reducing the infrastructure costs. Since hydrogen requires a liquefier with at least a 17% efficiency just to break even from a cost standpoint, one approach for implementing ZBO in upper stages would be to actively cool the shield in the hydrogen tank to reduce the parasitic losses. This would allow the use of less expensive, presently available coolers (80 K vs. 20 K) and potentially simplify the system by requiring only a single compressor on the pad amd a single disconnect line. The compressor could be a hefty commercial unit, with only the cold head requiring expensive flight development and qualification. While this is actually a reduced boil off configuration rather than a zero-boil off case, if the cryogen loss could be cut significantly, the increase in hold time and reduced need for draining and refilling the propellant tanks could meet the vehicle operations needs in the majority of instances.Bearing in mind the potential benefits of ZBO, NASA AMES and SNECMA Moteurs decided to exchange their technical views on the subject. This paper will present a preliminary analysis for a multi-mission module using a fairly low thrust cryogenic engine and ZBO during cruise. Initial mass is 5.5. tons (in ETO). The cryogenic engine will be used near each periapsis in order to minimize the AV requirement. The payload obtained by this propulsion system is compared to a classical storable bipropellant propulsion system for several cases (e. g. Mars lander, Jupiter orbiter, Saturn orbiter). For the Jupiter and Saturn cases, the power source could be an RTG or a large parabolic mirror illuminating a solar panel. It is shown -that - due to its much larger specific impulse - the cryogenic ZBO solution provides much higher payloads, especially for exploration missions involving landing on planets, asteroids, comets, or other celestial bodies.

Valentian, D.↗

Cold Season Performance of the NU-WRF Regional Climate Model in the Great Lakes Region

As Earth’s largest collection of freshwater, the Laurentian Great Lakes have enormous ecological and socio-economic value. Their basin has become a regional hotspot of climatic and limnological change, potentially threatening its vital natural resources. Consequentially, there is a need to assess the current state of climate models regarding their performance across the Great Lakes region and develop the next generation of high-resolution regional climate models to address complex limnological processes and lake-atmosphere interactions. In response to this need, the current paper focuses on the generation and analysis of a 20-member ensemble of 3-km National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) simulations for the 2014-2015 cold season. The study aims to identify the model’s strengths and weaknesses; optimal configuration for the region; and the impacts of different physics parameterizations, coupling to a 1D lake model, time-variant lake-surface temperatures, and spectral nudging. Several key biases are identified in the cold-season simulations for the Great Lakes region, including an atmospheric cold bias that is amplified by coupling to a 1D lake model but diminished by applying the Community Atmosphere Model radiation scheme and Morrison microphysics scheme; an excess precipitation bias; anomalously early initiation of fall lake turnover and subsequent cold lake bias; excessive and overly persistent lake ice cover; and insufficient evaporation over Lakes Superior and Huron. The research team is currently addressing these key limitations by coupling NU-WRF to a 3D lake model in support of the next generation of regional climate models for the critical Great Lakes Basin.

Michael Notaro↗