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At least 271 records · Page 15

Tradeoffs between phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation influence the ecophysiology of the moss, Sphagnum magellanicum

Bryophytes are a diverse plant group and are functionally different from vascular plants. Yet, their peculiarities are rarely considered in the theoretical frameworks for plants. Currently, we lack information about the magnitude and the importance of intraspecific variability in the ecophysiology of bryophytes and how these might translate to local adaptation—a prerequisite for adaptive evolution. Capitalizing on two ecologically distinct (hummock and hollow) phenotypes of Sphagnum magellanicum, we explored the magnitude and pattern of intraspecific variability in this species and asked whether the environmental-mediated changes in shoot and physiological traits are due to phenotypic plasticity or local adaptation. Size, pigmentation, and habitat type that distinguished the phenotypes in the field did not influence the trait responses under a transplant and factorial experiment. In addition, the magnitude and pattern of trait variability (e.g., branch, stem and capitulum mass) changed with the treatments, which suggest that trait responses were due largely to phenotypic plasticity. The trait responses also suggest that the ecophysiological needs for mosses to grow in clumps, where they maintain a uniform growth may have an overriding effect over the potential for a fixed adaptive response to environmental heterogeneity, which would constrain local adaptation. In this paper, we conclude that extending the trait-based framework to mosses or making comparisons between mosses and vascular plants under any theoretical framework would only be meaningful to the extent that growth form and dispersal strategies are considered.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Largest Ever Recorded Heatwave—Characteristics and Attribution of the Antarctic Heatwave of March 2022

An unprecedented heatwave impacted East Antarctica in March 2022, peaking at 39°C above climatology, the largest temperature anomaly ever recorded globally. We investigate the causes of the heatwave, the impact of climate change, and a climate model's ability in simulating such an event. The heatwave, which was skillfully forecast, resulted from a highly anomalous large-scale circulation pattern that advected an Australian airmass to East Antarctica in 4 days and produced record atmospheric heat fluxes. Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures anomalies had a minimal impact on the heatwave's amplitude. Simulations from a climate model fail to simulate such a large temperature anomaly mostly due to biases in its large-scale circulation variability, showcasing a pathway for future model improvement in simulating extreme heatwaves. The heatwave was made 2°C warmer by climate change, and end of 21st century heatwaves may be an additional 5–6°C warmer, raising the prospect of near-melting temperatures over the interior of East Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical cyclone activity using the ENSO Longitude Index

Past studies have indicated that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a major role in the interannual variability of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. The primary mechanism being the eastward displacement of the warm pool during an El Nino, which carries warm water into that basin thereby creating favorable oceanic conditions. Despite this, the question of whether an accurate knowledge of ENSO enhances seasonal predictabiity of Eastern Pacific hurricanes has not been addressed specifically. In this study, we show that unlike traditional indices of ENSO, the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI) is able to predict Eastern Pacific hurricane activity at significant lead times. By capturing changes in the location of deep convection and associated thermocline processes more accurately, ELI explains the most variability in the upper-ocean heat content in the main development region of the Eastern Pacific basin compared to other ENSO indices. These results have substantial implications for operational seasonal forecasts of Eastern Pacific hurricanes.

Balaguru, Karthik↗

Tree root nutrient uptake kinetics vary with nutrient availability, environmental conditions, and root traits: a global analysis

Summary: Root nutrient uptake by trees is a critical process that couples carbon and nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems. Yet, root nutrient uptake traits are poorly constrained, and the dynamics of this process are often not represented in models reflecting sparse measurements and understanding of root nutrient uptake physiology that lags those of aboveground physiology in forest ecosystems. Here, we present a global dataset of published nutrient uptake capacity and affinity values for tree species, with the goal of describing global patterns and evaluating responses to environmental drivers and associations with root traits. Furthermore, the dataset contains observations for ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate uptake spanning 77 tree species. Nutrient uptake capacity and affinity varied by more than an order of magnitude for each nutrient. Notably, tropical forests are underrepresented in these observations. Nutrient uptake capacity was generally diminished under nutrient enrichment but enhanced with soil warming and root–mycorrhizal colonization. The magnitude and direction of these effects can depend on the duration of exposure to a given treatment. Species with thinner roots had a tendency toward greater uptake capacity and affinity. Overall, root nutrient uptake traits are highly variable across tree species, yet they depend on environmental drivers and life-history strategies.

Km↗

Real-time optimization of multi-cell industrial evaporative cooling towers using machine learning and particle swarm optimization

Existing electrical generating stations must operate with greater flexibility due to increasing renewable energy penetration on the electrical grid, and many coal-fired power stations have transitioned away from baseload operation to load-following operation to aid in grid stability. In cases where multiple independently controlled cooling tower cells are used in parallel for the cooling purposes of such stations, there is an opportunity to increase plant efficiency through data-driven optimization across their full load ranges. This work presents a novel application of real-time optimization using machine learning and particle swarm optimization on a multi-cell induced-draft cooling tower servicing a coal-fired power station under variable load. This is the first work to demonstrate simultaneous optimization of a multi-cell cooling tower, in addition to using machine learning for closed-loop control on a cooling tower. A novel control configuration is presented that ensures original control logic is not adversely affected and that the overall plant process is not disrupted using only existing hardware and operational data. To verify this methodology, the 12 independent cooling tower cells are simulated in parallel using historic operating data to demonstrate the effectiveness of real-time optimization compared to current practice. An artificial neural network is trained to predict overall cooling tower power consumption using only operational data and ambient conditions with an R2 value of greater than 0.96. The real-time optimization using particle swarm yields 6.7% annual energy usage savings compared to current practices, although the extent of the real-time savings varies greatly with both plant load and environmental conditions. This is particularly significant for a variable load situation because frequent ramping typically results in reduced overall efficiency. Furthermore, this proposed AI-based solution presents an opportunity to improve the overall heat rate of a load-following coal-fired power plant without the need to perform extensive first-principles modeling or add additional hardware to the cooling tower, resulting in more resources conserved and less overall emissions per unit of electricity generated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Distribution of genetic variation underlying adult migration timing in steelhead of the Columbia River basin

Abstract Fish migrations are energetically costly, especially when moving between freshwater and saltwater, but are a viable strategy for Pacific salmon and trout ( Oncorhynchus spp.) due to the advantageous resources available at various life stages. Anadromous steelhead ( O. mykiss ) migrate vast distances and exhibit variation for adult migration phenotypes that have a genetic basis at candidate genes known as greb1L and rock1 . We examined the distribution of genetic variation at 13 candidate markers spanning greb1L , intergenic, and rock1 regions versus 226 neutral markers for 113 populations ( n = 9,471) of steelhead from inland and coastal lineages in the Columbia River. Patterns of population structure with neutral markers reflected genetic similarity by geographic region as demonstrated in previous studies, but candidate markers clustered populations by genetic variation associated with adult migration timing. Mature alleles for late migration had the highest frequency overall in steelhead populations throughout the Columbia River, with only 9 of 113 populations that had a higher frequency of premature alleles for early migration. While a single haplotype block was evident for the coastal lineage, we identified multiple haplotype blocks for the inland lineage. The inland lineage had one haplotype block that corresponded to candidate markers within the greb1L gene and immediately upstream in the intergenic region, and the second block only contained candidate markers from the intergenic region. Haplotype frequencies had similar patterns of geographic distribution as single markers, but there were distinct differences in frequency between the two haplotype blocks for the inland lineage. This may represent multiple recombination events that differed between lineages where phenotypic differences exist between freshwater entry versus arrival timing as indicated by Micheletti et al. (2018a). Redundancy analyses were used to model environmental effects on allelic frequencies of candidate markers, and significant variables were migration distance, temperature, isothermality, and annual precipitation. This study improves our understanding of the spatial distribution of genetic variation underlying adult migration timing in steelhead as well as associated environmental factors and has direct conservation and management implications.

Collins, Erin E.↗

Application of the Recharge Estimation Tool (RET) to Prepare Spatially and Temporally Variable Recharge Boundary Conditions for Hanford Site Composite Analysis Vadose Zone Models

This environmental calculation file (ECF) describes the development of a tool for translating recharge estimates into readable input for STOMP© (Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases) vadose zone models primarily supporting the vadose zone (VZ) facets of the updated Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) and the Hanford Site Cumulative Impact Evaluation (CIE). The recharge estimates are spatiotemporally variable and are produced by the Recharge Evolution Tool (RET) described in Hanford Site-wide Natural Recharge Boundary Condition for Groundwater Models (ECF-HANFORD-15-0019). Outputs from the RET are given in Esri’s™ feature class format with yearly estimates and associated metadata encapsulated in file geodatabase objects. For STOMP models, the translated output is a text file in the format of an input boundary condition card, consistent with STOMP software requirements. The text file contains assimilated spatiotemporal recharge estimates produced by the RET. The tool discussed in this document will be referred to as the “RET2STOMP” tool.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Ensemble modeling of global lake evaporation under climate change

Global projections of lake evaporation are typically based on simulations using single mechanistic models. However, because of its complex interactions with various lake physical properties, environmental and anthropogenic drivers, lake evaporation is highly variable and sensitive to the choice of model used. In this study, we present a multi-model analysis to investigate differences across global simulations of lake evaporation during the warm-season using three different lake models driven by outputs from four general circulation models (GCM) (i.e. 12 model combinations in total) for historic and future scenarios. Our results suggest substantial differences among lake-climate model simulations of lake evaporation. These differences varied throughout the 20th and 21st century, with model driver data explaining 74% of the variance in future projections of warm- season lake evaporation. Our projections indicate that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), global annual lake evaporation rates will increase by 10–27% under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. Finally, we highlight the importance of using a multi-model approach for the prediction of future global lake evaporation responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Disparities in the air quality monitoring stations and PM₂.₅ in Chicago’s air quality landscape

Fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) poses significant public and environmental health risks in urban areas. Chicago’s dense industry and traffic create variable air quality, yet monitoring is unevenly distributed, resulting in undersampling of air quality data in some city areas. This study applied a hybrid approach using GIS-based kernel density mapping, interpolation modeling (IDW, Spline, Kriging) of USEPA monitoring data, multi-scale temporal trend analyses (hourly to annual), and ESDA. Accordingly, the density surface showed that monitors are concentrated in the affluent north, northwest, and southwest sides of Chicago (up to ~ 0.07 stations per sq mile), while the south and southeast regions, with predominantly minority communities, have virtually no coverage. Overall, citywide coverage is minimal (~ 4–5 monitors total; ~0.02 per sq mile; ≈1 per 600,000 residents). Temporal analyses showed that the city’s mean annual PM₂.₅ (~ 10.8 µg/m³) exceeds USEPA/WHO standards (9 µg/m³), with summer means (~ 17.1 µg/m³) significantly higher than other seasons. Diurnally, a clear pattern was observed, with PM₂.₅ concentrations peaking overnight (00:00–03:00) and during the morning rush hours, and dipping during midday to late afternoon. Spatial distribution of PM₂.₅ identified hotspots near O’Hare Airport, the downtown Loop area, and south-side neighborhoods, contrasting with lower concentrations on the north side, revealing Chicago’s socioeconomic divides and resulting environmental inequities. The findings underscore the need for expanded monitoring and targeted interventions in under-monitored, high-pollution communities to advance equitable community health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Can socio-economic indicators of vulnerability help predict spatial variations in the duration and severity of power outages due to tropical cyclones?

Abstract Tropical cyclones are the leading cause of major power outages in the U.S., and their effects can be devastating for communities. However, few studies have holistically examined the degree to which socio-economic variables can explain spatial variations in disruptions and reveal potential inequities thereof. Here, we apply machine learning techniques to analyze 20 tropical cyclones and predict county-level outage duration and percentage of customers losing power using a comprehensive set of weather, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Our models are able to accurately predict these outage response variables, but after controlling for the effects of weather conditions and environmental factors in the models, we find the effects of socio-economic variables to be largely immaterial. However, county-level data could be overlooking effects of socio-economic disparities taking place at more granular spatial scales, and we must remain aware of the fact that when faced with similar outage events, socio-economically vulnerable communities will still find it more difficult to cope with disruptions compared to less vulnerable ones.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability

Monsoons affect the economy, agriculture, and human health of two thirds of the world’s population. Therefore, predicting variations in monsoon precipitation is societally important. We explore the ability of climate models from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project to predict summer monsoon precipitation variability by using hindcasts from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Component A). The multi-model ensemble-mean shows significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation from one year to 6–9 years ahead. However, this skill is dependent on the model, monsoon domain, and lead-time. In general, the skill of the multi-model ensemble-mean prediction is low in year 1 but increases for longer-lead times and is largely consistent with externally forced changes. The best captured region is northern Africa for the 2–5 and 6–9 year forecast lead times. In contrast, there is no significant skill using the ensemble-mean over East and South Asia and, furthermore, there is significant spread in skill among models for these domains. By sub-sampling the ensemble we show that the difference in skill between models is tied to the simulation of the externally forced response over East and South Asia, with models with a more skilful forced response capable of better predictions. A further contribution is from skilful prediction of Pacific Ocean temperatures for the South Asian summer monsoon at longer lead-times. Therefore, these results indicate that predictions of the East and South Asian monsoons could be significantly improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating Uncertainty in Simulated ENSO Statistics

Abstract Large ensembles of model simulations are frequently used to reduce the impact of internal variability when evaluating climate models and assessing climate change induced trends. However, the optimal number of ensemble members required to distinguish model biases and climate change signals from internal variability varies across models and metrics. Here we analyze the mean, variance and skewness of precipitation and sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific region often used to describe the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), obtained from large ensembles of Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate simulations. Leveraging established statistical theory, we develop and assess equations to estimate, a priori, the ensemble size or simulation length required to limit sampling‐based uncertainties in ENSO statistics to within a desired tolerance. Our results confirm that the uncertainty of these statistics decreases with the square root of the time series length and/or ensemble size. Moreover, we demonstrate that uncertainties of these statistics are generally comparable when computed using either pre‐industrial control or historical runs. This suggests that pre‐industrial runs can sometimes be used to estimate the expected uncertainty of statistics computed from an existing historical member or ensemble, and the number of simulation years (run duration and/or ensemble size) required to adequately characterize the statistic. This advance allows us to use existing simulations (e.g., control runs that are performed during model development) to design ensembles that can sufficiently limit diagnostic uncertainties arising from simulated internal variability. These results may well be applicable to variables and regions beyond ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric teleconnection associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability in summer: assessment of the CESM1 model

Observational analysis shows that the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is associated with climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere through a zonal atmospheric teleconnection extending from the North Atlantic Ocean and propagating eastward around the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we studied the fidelity of model simulations in reproducing the observed summer AMV and the associated impacts on the mid-latitude climate by analysing simulations using the National Centre for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1), including CESM1 North Atlantic idealized and pacemaker simulations, CESM1 large ensemble twentieth century uninitialized simulations and large ensemble initialized CESM1 decadal predictions. To further compare the fidelity of CESM1, we also analysed large ensemble simulations from three other models. Our results suggest that the uninitialized large ensemble simulations from all models can produce an AMV time evolution and its regional climate impacts similar to the observations to certain degree. By initializing the observed oceanic condition in decadal prediction simulations, the simulated AMV and its regional impacts are closer to the observed ones than those in uninitialized ensemble simulations. In addition, the pacemaker simulations that nudged the time-evolving observed North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies produce spatiotemporal characteristics of the AMV and AMV climate impacts closer to the observed ones than the uninitialized simulations. We conclude that although coupled models can produce AMV and its regional impacts similar to observed, proper initialization and bias correction of the sea surface temperature spatial and temporal structure can improve this capability.

Initialization↗

Data from: 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed'

This package archives the core data used for analysis and inference in 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed' (Worsham et al., 2025). All data were collected in the East River, Washington Gulch, Slate River, and Coal Creek watersheds of Colorado. In the paper, we quantified the relative influence of climate, topographic, edaphic, and geologic factors on conifer stand structure and composition, and their functional relationships, at the watershed scale. We used waveform LiDAR data to derive spatially continuous stand structure metrics. We fused these with a species-level classification map to estimate tree species abundance. We applied generalized additive and generalized boosted models to evaluate the covariability of structural and compositional metrics with abiotic variables. The package contains the essential products required for reproducing our analysis and the tables and figures reported in the publication. The products comprise four classes: (1) geospatial data, (2) tabular data used for inferential analysis, (3) tabular data describing analytical results and performance statistics, and (4) a data user guide. (1) includes discretized waveform LiDAR data, locations and attributes of individual tree crowns, sampling locations and domain boundaries, a canopy height model, and raster files of estimated forest structural and compositional metrics at 100 m grid scale. (2) includes all response and explanatory variable values applied in inferential models. Response variables include conifer forest stand density, basal area, 95th percentile height, quadratic mean diameter, and others. Explanatory variables include climatic water deficit, actual evapotranspiration, elevation, heat load, soil available water content, and others. (3) includes results of training and testing several individual tree detection (ITD) algorithms, as well as inferential modeling results. (4) is a PDF user guide for this data package, including detailed descriptions and data dictionaries for all files. The data package root contains 17 assets: 8 compressed tape archive (.tar.gz) files, 5 comma-separated values (.csv) files, 3 Geographic Tagged Image File Format (GeoTIFF) (.tif) files, and 1 Portable Document Format (.pdf) file. The compressed .tar.gz archives contain ESRI shapefiles (.shp) .tif, compressed LASer (.laz), and .csv files. The archives must first be decompressed using the widely distributed command-line software utility TAR. All other files, including constituent files within the .tar.gz archives, can be opened in the open-source R statistical computing environment. Alternatively, .csv files may also be read in any simple text editor software or Microsoft Excel. Geospatial files including .shp and .tif files can also be opened in GIS software, such as QGIS (open-source) or ESRI ArcGIS (proprietary). The .pdf Data User Guide can be read with Adobe Acrobat Reader or other compatible readers.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement between National Energy Technology Laboratory and Gas Technology Institute (Abstract)

Hydrogen has the potential to play an important role in decarbonizing energy-intensive sectors, and credible and open-source protocols are needed to vet the environmental credibility of a specific production pathway, given the variability even among the same technologies. Stakeholders and markets lack consistent, transparent, technical tools and protocols to assess the carbon intensity of hydrogen production at the asset level. Gas Technology Institute (GTI) and S&P Global Platts have launched the Open Hydrogen Initiative (OHI), a new collaboration focused on brining industry within the hydrogen marketplace together to provide further transparency into the environmental greenhouse gas (GHG) impact of hydrogen production. As part of this initiative, GTI has invited NETL to participate in the effort because of NETL’s deep expertise and capabilities in Life Cycle Analysis. Therefore, NETL is joining forces with the Gas Technology Institute (GTI) to build a measurement tool, accompanying protocols, and confidence score of the quality of the measurement. This CRADA effort provides the technical research collaboration support with GTI that will be used in the broader Open Hydrogen Initiative that can provide stakeholders the technical tools and protocols to decarbonize energyintensive sectors.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Microwave resonance enhanced CO 2 reduction using biochar

The conventional process for CO 2 conversion requires high energy and expensive catalysts, and shows poor product selectivity. Here, in this study, we address these challenges by investigating an environmentally friendly method for CO production through the variable frequency microwave-driven CO 2 Boudouard reaction over biochar. We hypothesized that tuning the microwave frequency to align with the dielectric properties of biochar, and thereby induce a resonance effect, could significantly enhance reaction efficiency. Experiments were conducted to explore the effect of microwave frequency on CO 2 conversion efficiency in the variable frequency microwave reactor operating within a frequency range of 2430–6000 MHz. Results reveal a significant resonance effect at 4225 MHz resulting in an outstanding CO 2 conversion of 96.3%, in sharp contrast to the complete absence of conversion observed at the conventional 2450 MHz. The resonance frequency not only facilitated exceptional conversion but also remarkably improved energy efficiency, yielding a productivity of 1427.5 µmol/kJ of CO. This represents a remarkable 474-fold increase compared to electrical heating. Furthermore, continuous microwave irradiation at this optimized frequency demonstrated remarkable stability and induced substantial enhancements in the pore structure and surface area of biochar. This innovative approach provides promising insights into sustainable and efficient CO production processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Explainable machine learning to quantify the value of proximal remote sensing in latent energy flux estimation

Proximal remote sensing has the potential to provide critical information on vegetation biophysical factors that can predict land-atmosphere exchange of water and energy. Latent energy (LE) flux is traditionally estimated using process-based models which rely on vegetation parameters that change during the growing season. Data-driven models have the potential to address these issues by offering flexible predictor selection and more efficient utilization of the information in predictor sets. These models require careful choice of predictors to avoid redundancy and allow robust cross-validation. In this study we present a systematic and comprehensive evaluation of machine learning (ML) models to assess the capability of meteorological and proximal sensing data for predicting LE at a half-hourly temporal resolution across multiple growing seasons for an agricultural system. The results presented here demonstrate that a model using four environmental predictors in combination with two proximal sensing variables can capture 88 % of the variability in LE. ML models using only three predictors (one meteorological and two proximal remote sensing) captured 81 % of LE variability, offering the best trade-off between performance and complexity. An ML model utilizing only two predictors, one proximal remote sensing variable and downwelling radiation, captured 77 % of LE variability. These results demonstrate the power of proximal remote sensing and meteorological observations to estimate land-atmosphere water vapor exchange, providing a solution where more direct methods such as eddy covariance are not available and for evaluations of agronomic management and genotypic variations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A pathway to synthesizing single-crystal Fe and FeCr films

Nuclear reactor environments provide a unique scientific and engineering challenge wherein materials must tolerate prolonged exposure to concurrent irradiation, elevated temperatures, and corrosive media. However, uncontrolled variability in material composition and structure often prohibits truly single-variable experiments that can reveal basic aspects of environmental damage. Here, Magnetron sputtering is used to provide a more controlled model system for these fundamental studies, yielding reproducible single-crystal Fe and FeCr thin films containing 8 and 18 at.% Cr. Electron microscopy is used to determine the systematic correlations between growth conditions and the resulting film microstructure and surface morphology. It is found that the substrate temperature and applied radio frequency (RF) bias can be tuned to obtain consistent homogeneous and single crystal films with a minimal amount of Ar impurities from the RF bias process. Epitaxial, single-crystal Fe films are obtained on MgO substrates at 500 °C with 10 Watt (W) RF bias deposition. However, when Cr is alloyed with Fe, higher substrate temperatures (600 °C) and applied RF biases (15 W) are required to achieve a similar epitaxial single-crystal FeCr film. Accelerated molecular dynamics simulations reveal that Cr impedes surface transport, explaining the need for higher temperature and bias during the growth of the Cr-bearing films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗