Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Error Rate Predictions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

Multisatellite attitude determination/optical aspect bias determination (MSAD/OABIAS) system description and operating guide. Volume 3: Operating guide

The Multisatellite Attitude Determination/Optical Aspect Bias Determination (MSAD/OABIAS) System, designed to determine spin axis orientation and biases in the alignment or performance of optical or infrared horizon sensors and Sun sensors used for spacecraft attitude determination, is described. MSAD/OABIAS uses any combination of eight observation models to process data from a single onboard horizon sensor and Sun sensor to determine simultaneously the two components of the attitude of the spacecraft, the initial phase of the Sun sensor, the spin rate, seven sensor biases, and the orbital in-track error associated with the spacecraft ephemeris information supplied to the system. In addition, the MSAD/OABIAS system provides a data simulator for system and performance testing, an independent deterministic attitude system for preprocessing and independent testing of biases determined, and a multipurpose data prediction and comparison system.

Joseph, M.↗

Single Event Effects in Highly Scaled Devices for Space Applications

This paper discusses single-event upset (SEU) in memories and microprocessors that are the "drivers" of highly scaled commercial integrated circuits. Despite the decrease in critical charge that occurs for highly scaled CMOS devices, recent test data has shown that SEU rates are actually somewhat lower for scaled devices compared to older devices with larger feature size. Hard errors, which are increasingly important for memories, are discussed along with conventional soft errors. Functional errors in memories and microprocessors are particularly significant, and tend to dominate the response of highly scaled devices from an application standpoint. Predictions for future devices are made using the Semiconductor Industry Roadmap along with recent modeling and radiation test results.

microelectronics↗

Effects of Increasing Drag on Conjunction Assessment

Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis relies heavily on the computation of the Probability of Collision (Pc) and the understanding of the sensitivity of this calculation to the position errors as defined by the covariance. In Low Earth Orbit (LEO), covariance is predominantly driven by perturbations due to atmospheric drag. This paper describes the effects of increasing atmospheric drag through Solar Cycle 24 on Pc calculations. The process of determining these effects is found through analyzing solar flux predictions on Energy Dissipation Rate (EDR), historical relationship between EDR and covariance, and the sensitivity of Pc to covariance. It is discovered that while all LEO satellites will be affected by the increase in solar activity, the relative effect is more significant in the LEO regime around 700 kilometers in altitude compared to 400 kilometers. Furthermore, it is shown that higher Pc values can be expected at larger close approach miss distances. Understanding these counter-intuitive results is important to setting Owner/Operator expectations concerning conjunctions as solar maximum approaches.

Frigm, Ryan Clayton↗

Thermal Model of Ice Growth in Vacuum for Lunar Water Production

To support NASA’s goal of sustained lunar presence, the use of in-situ resource utilization will reduce launch weight and frequency of resupply missions. With the discovery of water in the permanently shadowed regions of the moon, the prospect of harvesting water has generated particular interest. A more fundamental understanding of water storage and capture in lunar conditions is necessary for effective and efficient water capture and transport. The present study derives a thermal model for ice height, heat flux, chamber pressure, and mass flow rate in sub-atmospheric pressures below the triple point. The thermal model compares ice layer height against the results of the experiment at two pressures (300 Pa and 500 Pa) and temperatures from -18°C to -3°C. The thermal model predicts the trends seen experimentally with an overall root mean square error of 0.1135 cm and coefficient of efficiency of 0.994, indicating the model predicts the experimental results. The thermal model can be utilized to examine the impacts of varying pressure, temperature, and cold plate area to determine the most effective ice growth conditions for efficient capture of water on the lunar surface. The thermal model will provide a useful tool for NASA in the design of the lunar ice tanker and shows the promise of effective capture water on the lunar surface.

Ice growth↗

Thermal Model of Ice Growth in Vacuum for Lunar Water Production

To support NASA’s goal of sustained lunar presence, the use of in-situ resource utilization will reduce launch weight and frequency of resupply missions. With the discovery of water in the permanently shadowed regions of the moon, the prospect of harvesting water has generated particular interest. A more fundamental understanding of water storage and capture in lunar conditions is necessary for effective and efficient water capture and transport. The present study derives a thermal model for ice height, heat flux, chamber pressure, and mass flow rate in sub-atmospheric pressures below the triple point. The thermal model compares ice layer height against the results of the experiment at two pressures (300 Pa and 500 Pa) and temperatures from -18°C to -3°C. The thermal model predicts the trends seen experimentally with an overall root mean square error of 0.1135 cm and coefficient of efficiency of 0.994, indicating the model predicts the experimental results. The thermal model can be utilized to examine the impacts of varying pressure, temperature, and cold plate area to determine the most effective ice growth conditions for efficient capture of water on the lunar surface. The thermal model will provide a useful tool for NASA in the design of the lunar ice tanker and shows the promise of effective capture water on the lunar surface.

Ice growth↗

Reanalysis of X-ray emission from M87. 2: The multiphase medium

In a previous paper, we showed that a single-phase model for the gas around M87 simultaneously explained most available X-ray data. Total enclosed masses derived from the model, however, fell well below the determinations from optical measurements. In this paper, we consider possible solutions to the inconsistency, including two multiphase medium models for the gas and the consequences of systematic errors of the Einstein Focal Point Crystal Spectrometer (FPCS). First, we find that when constraints from optical mass determinations are not considered, the best-fit model to the X-ray data is always the single-phase model. Multiphase models or consideration of FPCS systematic errors are required only when optical mass constraints are included. We find that the cooling time model of White & Sarazin adequately explains the available X-ray data and predicts total masses which agree with optical measurements. An ad hoc power-law multiphase does not. This shows both that the existence of mass dropping out of the ambient phase is consistent with the data and that the cooling-time model gives a reasonable parameterization of the dropout rate. Our derived mass accretion rate is similar to previous determinations. The implications of this result for cluster mass determinations in general are discussed. We then consider 'self absorbing' models where we assume that material dropping out of the ambient medium goes completely into X-ray absorbing gas. The resulting internal absorption is small compared to Galactic absorption at most radii. The models are therefore indistinguishable from models with only Galactic absorption. We finally show that it is alternatively possible to simultaneously fit optical mass measurements and X-ray data with a single-phase model if some of the observed FPCS line fluxes are too high by the maximum systematic error. This possiblity can be checked with new data from satellites such as ASCA.

Tsai, John C.↗

Solar models, neutrino experiments, and helioseismology

The event rates and their recognized uncertainties are calculated for 11 solar neutrino experiments using accurate solar models. These models are also used to evaluate the frequency spectrum of the p and g oscillations modes of the sun. It is shown that the discrepancy between the predicted and observed event rates in the Cl-37 and Kamiokande II experiments cannot be explained by a 'likely' fluctuation in input parameters with the best estimates and uncertainties given in the present study. It is suggested that, whatever the correct solution to the solar neutrino problem, it is unlikely to be a 'trival' error.

Bahcall, John N.↗

Soil surface CO2 fluxes and the carbon budget of a grassland

Measurements of soil surface CO2 fluxes are reported for three sites within the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE) area, and simple empirical equations are fit to the data to provide predictions of soil fluxes from environmental observations. A prototype soil chamber, used to make the flux measurements, is described and tested by comparing CO2 flux measurements to a 40-L chamber, a 1-m/cu chamber, and eddy correlation. Results suggest that flux measurements with the prototype chamber are consistent with measurements by other methods to within about 20 percent. A simple empirical equation based on 10-cm soil temperature, 0- to 10-cm soil volumetric water content, and leaf area index predicts the soil surface CO2 flux with a rms error of 1.2 micro-mol sq m/s for all three sites. Further evidence supports using this equation to evaluate soil surface CO2 during the 1987 FIFE experiment. The soil surface CO2 fluxes when averaged over 24 hours are comparable to daily gross canopy photosynthetic rates. For 6 days of data the net daily accumulation of carbon is about 0.6 g CO2 sq m/d; this is only a few percent of the daily gross accumulation of carbon by photosynthesis. As the soil became drier in 1989, the net accumulation of carbon by the prairie increased, suggesting that the soil flux is more sensitive to temperature and drought than the photosynthetic fluxes.

Norman, J. M.↗

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

An experiment in software reliability: Additional analyses using data from automated replications

A study undertaken to collect software error data of laboratory quality for use in the development of credible methods for predicting the reliability of software used in life-critical applications is summarized. The software error data reported were acquired through automated repetitive run testing of three independent implementations of a launch interceptor condition module of a radar tracking problem. The results are based on 100 test applications to accumulate a sufficient sample size for error rate estimation. The data collected is used to confirm the results of two Boeing studies reported in NASA-CR-165836 Software Reliability: Repetitive Run Experimentation and Modeling, and NASA-CR-172378 Software Reliability: Additional Investigations into Modeling With Replicated Experiments, respectively. That is, the results confirm the log-linear pattern of software error rates and reject the hypothesis of equal error rates per individual fault. This rejection casts doubt on the assumption that the program's failure rate is a constant multiple of the number of residual bugs; an assumption which underlies some of the current models of software reliability. data raises new questions concerning the phenomenon of interacting faults.

Dunham, Janet R.↗

Optical phase-locked loop (OPLL) for free-space laser communications with heterodyne detection

Several advantages of coherent free-space optical communications are outlined. Theoretical analysis is formulated for an OPLL disturbed by shot noise, modulation noise, and frequency noise consisting of a white component, a 1/f component, and a 1/f-squared component. Each of the noise components is characterized by its associated power spectral density. It is shown that the effect of modulation depends only on the ratio of loop bandwidth and data rate, and is negligible for an OPLL with loop bandwidth smaller than one fourth the data rate. Total phase error variance as a function of loop bandwidth is displayed for several values of carrier signal to noise ratio. Optimal loop bandwidth is also calculated as a function of carrier signal to noise ratio. An OPLL experiment is performed, where it is shown that the measured phase error variance closely matches the theoretical predictions.

Win, Moe Z.↗

Development of Algorithms and Error Analyses for the Short Baseline Lightning Detection and Ranging System

NASA, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), developed and operates a unique high-precision lightning location system to provide lightning-related weather warnings. These warnings are used to stop lightning- sensitive operations such as space vehicle launches and ground operations where equipment and personnel are at risk. The data is provided to the Range Weather Operations (45th Weather Squadron, U.S. Air Force) where it is used with other meteorological data to issue weather advisories and warnings for Cape Canaveral Air Station and KSC operations. This system, called Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), provides users with a graphical display in three dimensions of 66 megahertz radio frequency events generated by lightning processes. The locations of these events provide a sound basis for the prediction of lightning hazards. This document provides the basis for the design approach and data analysis for a system of radio frequency receivers to provide azimuth and elevation data for lightning pulses detected simultaneously by the LDAR system. The intent is for this direction-finding system to correct and augment the data provided by LDAR and, thereby, increase the rate of valid data and to correct or discard any invalid data. This document develops the necessary equations and algorithms, identifies sources of systematic errors and means to correct them, and analyzes the algorithms for random error. This data analysis approach is not found in the existing literature and was developed to facilitate the operation of this Short Baseline LDAR (SBLDAR). These algorithms may also be useful for other direction-finding systems using radio pulses or ultrasonic pulse data.

Starr, Stanley O.↗

A note on the diurnal averaging of aeronomical models

An approximate technique for diurnally time-averaging atmospheric photochemical-dynamical models which eliminates the need for a detailed numerical resolution of sunrise and sunset transitions is developed. The scheme is equivalent to scaling certain chemical rate constants and photodissociation coefficients by appropriate aeronomical factors. To calculate the scaling factors, diurnal variations are parameterized with a step-function behavior, assuming that each species has a constant day-time and night-time concentration whose ratio can be determined by analyzing the chemical interactions occurring after sunset. The solution accounts for the effects of night-time reactions on the 24 h average values of species abundances, and on the average daily rates of the catalytic processes consuming ozone in the stratosphere. The accuracy of the technique is demonstrated by comparing its predictions to those of a full diurnal simulation; typically, the precision is better than 10%. By contrast, it is shown that the use of some other well-known computational schemes can result in significantly larger predictive errors.

Turco, R. P.↗

Applying EVM to Satellite on Ground and In-Orbit Testing - Better Data in Less Time

Using Error Vector Magnitude (EVM) in satellite integration and test allows rapid verification of the Bit Error Rate (BER) performance of a satellite link and is particularly well suited to measurement of low bit rate satellite links where it can result in a major reduction in test time (about 3 weeks per satellite for the Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellite [GOES] satellites during ground test) and can provide diagnostic information. Empirical techniques developed to predict BER performance from EVM measurements and lessons learned about applying these techniques during GOES N, O, and P integration test and post launch testing, are discussed.

Peters, Robert↗

Mechanistic Modeling of TEG Dehydrator Emissions in Oil and Gas Industry

This work presents a mechanistic modeling approach for simulating methane emissions from triethylene glycol (TEG) dehydrators used in oil & gas (O&G) operations. The model was developed as a modular component of the Mechanistic Air Emissions Simulator (MAES) tool, incorporating species-specific absorption and emission dynamics through two-level, second-order polynomial regression (PR) models trained on ProMax simulation data: (1) species-level regression models that track the transfer rates of individual gas species within the dehydrator unit streams, and (2) outlet flow stream regression models that predict the fraction of inlet gas distributed among the outlet streams of the dehydrator unit. These behaviors were characterized over a range of glycol circulation ratios, wet gas pressures, and temperatures. The model was validated using root mean square error (RMSE) analysis. The species-level PR achieved low root mean square error (RMSE) values (<0.03) for light hydrocarbon species across all dehydrator components, ranging from 0.0009 for methane to 0.029 for normal pentane. Similarly, the outlet-level PR yielded RMSE values below 0.002 for the dry gas fraction, 0.001 for the flash tank fraction, and 0.002 for the still vent fraction, demonstrating strong agreement between predicted and reference ProMax values. When deployed at field facilities, the model significantly improved MAES-simulated dehydrator emissions, revealing that gas-assisted glycol pump emissions are the dominant contributors to both dehydrator-level and site-level methane emissions under uncontrolled conditions. Further analysis of the 154 dehydrator units reported by operators under the AMI 2024 project showed that 54 units (31%) used gas-driven glycol pumps, of which 6 units (11%) operated with uncontrolled flash tanks, and 22 units (40.7%) were identified as potentially oversized. Of the six dehydrator units with uncontrolled gas-assisted pumps, pump emissions accounted for 90.25% of total dehydrator emissions and 63.10% of total site-level emissions. These findings highlight substantial opportunities for emissions mitigation through equipment upgrades.

MAES↗

Accuracy of the energy-corrected sudden (ECS) scaling procedure for rotational excitation of CO by collisions with Ar

The utility of the energy-corrected sudden (ECS) scaling method is evaluated on the basis of how accurately it predicts the entire matrix of state-to-state rate constants, when the fundamental rate constants are independently known. It is shown for the case of Ar-CO collisions at 500 K that when a critical impact parameter is about 1.75-2.0 A, the ECS method yields excellent excited state rates on the average and has an rms error of less than 20 percent.

Green, S.↗

Simulation and analysis of a geopotential research mission

Methods for the determination of the initial conditions for the two satellites that will satisfy Geopotential Research Mission (GRM) requirements are investigated. For certain gravitational recovery techniques, the satellites must remain close to a specified separation distance and their groundtracks must repeat after a specified interval of time. Since the objective of the GRM mission is to improve the gravity model, any pre-mission orbit predicted using existing gravity models will be in error. A technique has been developed to eliminate the drift between the two satellites caused by gravitational modeling errors and return them to repeating groundtracks. The concept of frozen orbits, which minimize altitude variations over given latitudes, was investigated. Finally, the effects of temporal perturbations on the relative range-rate signal were studied. At the proposed altitude of 160 km, the range-rate signal produced by perturbations other than the static geopotential field are dominated by the luni-solar effect. This study demonstrates that the combined effects of all the temporal perturbations does not prevent the orbit from being frozen or the satellites from obtaining a repeating groundtrack to within a specified closure distance.

White, Lisa K.↗

Predicting The Propagation Of Cracks

Advanced Crack Propagation Predictive Analysis Program, FLAGR04, developed as aid in predicting growth of preexisting flaws and cracks in structural components. Provides fracture-mechanics analyst with computerized method of evaluation of "safe crack-growth life" capabilities of structural components. Also used to evaluate tolerance-to-damage aspects of given structural design. Predicts growth of crack by use of two-dimensional model independently predicting growth of flaw in two directions based on calculation of stress-intensity factors. Input to FLAGR04 consists of initial definition of crack, type of rate solution, type and geometry of flaw, properties of material, data on load spectrum, load-stress functions, and design-limit stress levels. Output includes echo of input with any error or warning message and history of propagation of crack. Written in FORTRAN IV.

Tianlai, HU↗