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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15

Impacts of Spatial Resolution in a High-Fidelity Capacity Expansion Model: An ERCOT Case Study

Capacity expansion models are important tools in examining the evolution of the electric power sector. Embedded in these tools are many modeling choices with consequential impacts on computational burden and associated analysis. In this study, we adjust the spatial resolution of the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) to understand the implications of higher-fidelity modeling on energy system projections and model solve times. The native ReEDS regions capture the contiguous United States in 134 balancing areas whereas the regions in the higher-resolution version are defined by over 3,000 U.S. counties. Using both resolutions, we conduct a case study of the Texas Interconnection (The Electric Reliability Council of Texas [ERCOT]) to explore differences in model projections and to inform appropriate applications of high spatial resolution in a large-scale, applied capacity expansion model.

county↗

The Simons Observatory: forecasted constraints on primordial gravitational waves with the expanded array of Small Aperture Telescopes

We present updated forecasts for the scientific performance of the degree-scale (0.5 deg FWHM at 93 GHz), deep-field survey to be conducted by the Simons Observatory (SO). By 2027, the SO Small Aperture Telescope (SAT) complement will be doubled from three to six telescopes, including a doubling of the detector count in the 93 GHz and 145 GHz channels to 48,160 detectors. Combined with a planned extension of the survey duration to 2035, this expansion will significantly enhance SO's search for a B-mode signal in the polarisation of the cosmic microwave background, a potential signature of gravitational waves produced in the very early Universe. Assuming a 1/f noise model with knee multipole ℓ knee = 50 and a moderately complex model for Galactic foregrounds, we forecast a 1σ (or 68% confidence level) constraint on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r of σ r = 1.2 × 10 -3 , assuming no primordial B-modes are present. This forecast assumes that 70% of the B-mode lensing signal can ultimately be removed using high resolution observations from the SO Large Aperture Telescope (LAT) and overlapping large-scale structure surveys. For more optimistic assumptions regarding foregrounds and noise, and assuming the same level of delensing, this forecast constraint improves to σ r = 7 × 10 -4 . These forecasts represent a major improvement in SO's constraining power, being a factor of around 2.5 times better than what could be achieved with the originally planned campaign, which assumed the existing three SATs would conduct a five-year survey.

CMBR experiments↗

The Roles and Impacts of PV-Battery Hybrids in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity Supply

In this paper, we explore the potential impacts of growing industry interest in hybrid systems comprising PV and battery technologies on the results and findings of the Solar Futures Study (DOE 2021). We employ similar scenario definitions in the same ReEDS capacity expansion model, but we perform two versions of each scenario: one in which PV and battery technologies must be deployed separately (No Hybrids), and one in which the model has the option of deploying them together as PVB hybrids (With Hybrids). By comparing the No Hybrids and With Hybrids versions of each scenario, we isolate the impacts of hybridization on the outcomes and findings of the Solar Futures Study. We find that PVB hybrid configurations capture a sizable share of PV deployment, and the highest-net-value PVB hybrid configuration depends strongly on policy conditions. A power sector decarbonization policy generally increases the value proposition of a more forward-looking PVB hybrid configuration that involves significant oversizing of the PV arrays, a larger battery (which facilitates greater recovery and utilization of otherwise clipped energy), and a higher capacity factor. The growing deployment of PVB hybrid configurations primarily displaces standalone PV capacity, such that total installed PV capacity is largely unaffected by the availability of PVB hybrid configurations. However, the higher capacity factors associated with PVB hybrid configurations drive a modest (1-2 percentage point) increase in PV's share of U.S. electricity supply in 2050. Finally, introducing the PVB hybrid configurations influences the future role and makeup of battery storage technologies, and it reduces the required transmission expansion, particularly under scenarios that involve a power sector decarbonization policy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

SOFIA: Flying the Telescope

The primary focus of this paper is how the flight test team for the Stratospheric Observatory For Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) re-cast an extensive developmental test program to meet key milestones while simultaneously ensuring safe certification of the airframe and delivery of an operationally relevant platform, ultimately saving the overall program from financial demise. Following a brief introduction to the observatory and what it is designed to do, SOFIAs planned developmental test program is summarized, including analysis and design philosophy, envelope expansion, model validation and airframe certification. How NASA used lessons learned from other aircraft that employed open cavities in flight is explained as well as how and why the chosen design was selected. The approach to aerodynamic analysis, including bare airframe testing, wind tunnel testing, computational fluid dynamics and finite element modeling proved absolutely critical. Despite a solid analytical foundation, many unknowns remained. History provides several examples of disastrous effects on both systems and flight safety if cavity design is not approached properly. For these reasons, an extensive test plan was developed to ensure a safe and thorough build-up for envelope expansion, airframe certification and early science missions. Unfortunately, as is often the case, because of chronic delays in overall program execution, severe schedule and funding pressures were present. If critical milestones were not met, domestic as well as international funding was in serious jeopardy, and the demise of the entire program loomed large. Concentrating on rigorous model validation, the test team challenged certification requirements, increased test efficiency and streamlined engineering analysis. This resulted in the safe reduction of test point count by 72%, meeting all program milestones and a platform that soundly satisfied all operational science requirements. Results from early science missions are shown and a proof of concept mission for which SOFIA was opportunely positioned is showcased. Success on this time-critical mission to observe a rare astronomical event proved the usefulness of an airborne observatory and the value in waiting for the capability provided by SOFIA. Finally, lessons learned in the test program are presented with emphasis on how lessons from previous aircraft and successful test programs were applied to SOFIA. Effective application of these lessons was crucial to the success of the SOFIA flight test program. SOFIA is an international cooperative program between NASA and the German Space Agency, DLR. It is a 2.5 meter (100-inch) telescope mounted in a Boeing 747SP aircraft used for astronomical observations at altitudes above 35,000 feet. SOFIA will accommodate a host of scientific instruments from the international science community and has a planned operational lifespan of more than 20 years.

Asher, Troy A.↗

Capabilities Development at the University of Texas at El Paso for Hydrogen Generation Research and Education

Gasification-based systems have recently received much attention due to their capability of converting wastes into useful fuels. The gasification of biomass, municipal solid waste (MSW), plastics, and other sustainable resources has shown promise in hydrogen production. When coupled to a CCU or CCS unit, these systems have the potential to achieve carbon neutrality or carbon-negative emissions. In addition, these systems have an edge over conventional incineration or landfill systems by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and recovering useful energy. However, the gasification of MSW and other wastes is still in its early stages. In particular, co-gasification of wastes with biomass has significant unknowns in optimizing the reaction kinetics, operability, design and performance improvements. Currently, Supercritical Water Gasifiers (SCWG) and Plasma Gasifiers are the major systems that are capable of producing high hydrogen amounts from Biomass and MSW, respectively. However, both systems have high capital and operating costs, adversely affecting efficiency and the hydrogen production cost. Additionally, due to lower temperatures, SCWGs are prone to tar formation and fouling in the heat exchangers. Hence, there is a need to look for alternative solutions for MSW and biomass gasifications, particularly in co-gasification. The current effort aims to develop a strategic plan to establish a sustainable gasification facility for hydrogen research at the University of Texas at El (UTEP). A major part of this effort involves an extensive literature survey to identify technological gaps and potential areas of interest. Several concepts were developed in accordance with the current demands from the literature survey. Based on the concepts, a center-wide capability assessment was conducted to measure the current capacity and feasibility of establishing hydrogen research. Afterward, a strategic research plan was developed, and a list of required resources was made for the expansion of hydrogen research at UTEP. In addition, successful partnerships with the local county and the city were developed to pursue hydrogen research. The strategic goal setting and planning of UTEP Aerospace Center resulted in securing $2.5 million in external support to expand the hydrogen research during the project performance period. In addition, during the project period, a course in Hydrogen Energy Systems was developed to expand the energy curriculum at the UTEP Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering Department. The course focused on hydrogen production, storage, supply and delivery and application. The cross-listed course was offered at both undergraduate and graduate levels during the Spring 2024 semester and had 27 enrolled students. Moreover, the students supported under this award were trained in gasification process modeling, CAD, CFD and FEA during the project period. The training enabled the students to move into new projects to support gasification design, integrated gasification combined cycle process plant analysis, gasifier structural and operational analysis, and digitally threading the systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Test results and flight experience of ball bearing momentum and reaction wheels

The required satellite mission durations and levels of reliability have been considerably increased: While in the beginning of the 70's 3 to 5 year missions were planned, the standard is now 10 years with an expansion to 15 years and more for such programs as INTELSAT VII. Based on a 20 year test and flight experience with basically the same design, ball bearing momentum and reaction wheels with the required 15 year mission capability can be provided.

Auer, W.↗

NASA GRC Cryogenic Seal Test Rig Capability

It has been about six years since any cryogenic seal tests were run at NASA GRC (Glenn Research Center). The Cryogenic Components Lab, where the cryogenic seal test rigs are located, has been shutdown due to the impending expansion of the Cleveland Hopkins International Airport. The current plan is to move the Cryogenic Components Lab (CCL), Cells I and 2 to NASA Plumbrook in Sandusky, Ohio. The purpose of this presentation is to inform the seal community of the cryogenic seal test rig capabilities available at NASA GRC for planning of future programs.

Proctor, Margaret↗

Hawai'i Pathways to Decarbonization: Act 238, Session Laws of Hawai'i 2022

Act 238 mandated the Hawaii State Energy Office (HSEO) generate a report analyzing the pathways to achieve state and economy-wide 50% emissions reductions from 2005 levels by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2045. NREL supported HSEO in analyzing the electric sector impacts of these decarbonization pathways by performing a capacity expansion modeling analysis for the Oahu, Hawai'i island, Kaua'i, Maui, Moloka'i, and Lana'i island electric grids. NREL used the Engage capacity expansion modeling tool and PRAS resource adequacy tool to perform these analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Translating MAPGEN to ASPEN for MER

This software translates MAPGEN (Europa and APGEN) domains to ASPEN, and the resulting domain can be used to perform planning for the Mars Exploration Rover (MER). In other words, this is a conversion of two distinct planning languages (both declarative and procedural) to a third (declarative) planning language in order to solve the problem of faithful translation from mixed-domain representations into the ASPEN Modeling Language. The MAPGEN planning system is an example of a hybrid procedural/declarative system where the advantages of each are leveraged to produce an effective planner/scheduler for MER tactical planning. The adaptation of the planning system (ASPEN) was investigated, and, with some translation, much of the procedural knowledge encoding is amenable to declarative knowledge encoding. The approach was to compose translators from the core languages used for adapting MAGPEN, which consists of Europa and APGEN. Europa is a constraint- based planner/scheduler where domains are encoded using a declarative model. APGEN is also constraint-based, in that it tracks constraints on resources and states and other variables. Domains are encoded in both constraints and code snippets that execute according to a forward sweep through the plan. Europa and APGEN communicate to each other using proxy activities in APGEN that represent constraints and/or tokens in Europa. The composition of a translator from Europa to ASPEN was fairly straightforward, as ASPEN is also a declarative planning system, and the specific uses of Europa for the MER domain matched ASPEN s native encoding fairly closely. On the other hand, translating from APGEN to ASPEN was considerably more involved. On the surface, the types of activities and resources one encodes in APGEN appear to match oneto- one to the activities, state variables, and resources in ASPEN. But, when looking into the definitions of how resources are profiled and activities are expanded, one sees code snippets that access various information available during planning for the moment in time being planned to decide at the time what the appropriate profile or expansion is. APGEN is actually a forward (in time) sweeping discrete event simulator, where the model is composed of code snippets that are artfully interleaved by the engine to produce a plan/schedule. To solve this problem, representative code is simulated as a declarative series of task expansions. Predominantly, three types of procedural models were translated: loops, if statements, and code blocks. Loops and if statements were handled using controlled task expansion, and code blocks were handled using constraint networks that maintained the generation of results based on what the order of execution would be for a procedural representation. One advantage with respect to performance for MAPGEN is the use of APGEN s GUI. This GUI is written in C++ and Motif, and performs very well for large plans.

Rabideau, Gregg R.↗

Space and the Frontier Mythos: A Re-Examination

Some modern space philosophies emphasize the historical parallels between the conquest of the Martian frontier and the expansion into the American West. These parallels are used as a rationale for planning the exploration and large-scale settlement of Mars. However, many of these historical allegories are in error. Vast differences exist between the geographical realities of Mars and the western frontier. Furthermore, westward expansion took place within a set of political, economic, social, and technological circumstances that are unlikely to be repeated in Martian exploration. The physical conditions and geographical realities of the Martian frontier in exploration and settlement terms are closer to the Antarctic continent. The American West, which had been inhabited by humans for thousands of years, offered a relative degree of comfort to new arrivals. We do not find large numbers of people migrating to the Canadian High Arctic or other polar regions to live. The inhospitable nature of these polar regions are the major limitation to the human desire to live there. The conquest of the American West took place within the context of a complex set of circumstances. Americans believed they had a 'manifest destiny' to extend their civilization across the continent. Many people also went west in search of a better life: for gold, land or other opportunities. The technology also existed at that point to allow large numbers of people to head west on their own at minimal cost. The settlement of Mars will be far different. It is for these reasons that we believe Antarctica is a much better analog for the exploration of Mars. Therefore, Martian exploration and settlement plans should be adjusted accordingly.

Cockell, Charles S.↗

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Duke Energy Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study

Duke Energy has partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate pathways to achieving their carbon-free targets and to assess the operational impacts of the resulting system. This report details findings from Phase II of the Duke Low Carbon Resource Integration study, which consisted of three separate but interrelated analyses: (1) a resource assessment exploring the technical and economic potential and characteristics of wind and solar resources in the Carolinas; (2) capacity expansion modeling identifying the least-cost investment pathways for achieving 70% CO 2 emissions reductions in North Carolina by 2030 and a net-zero electricity system by 2050; and (3) detailed production cost modeling of power system operations at the higher shares of low- and zero-carbon emitting generation sources, informed by the capacity expansion modeling portion of the analysis. The analysis finds that Duke Energy can approach the 2030 and 2050 emissions target in North Carolina through investment in a combination of solar, wind, and storage along with maintaining its existing nuclear fleet. The average cost of CO 2 abatement in the Carolinas through 2021-2050 is on the order of $\$27-33$ per metric ton (range of $\$9-34$ per metric ton across key sensitivities).Duke Energy can expected increased interchange with neighbors to help balance higher levels of solar, although the ability to do this will depend on whether neighboring regions also move to integrate more carbon-free resources. As Duke Energy moves toward both the 2030 and 2050 targets, addressing energy needs during the winter peak period becomes particularly important, and the system relies on the availability of resources such as renewable or hydrogen combustion turbines, seasonal storage, or other similar technologies that are dispatchable but able to operate at low capacity factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Long-Term Impacts of Constrained Transmission Deployment on the Cost-Reliability Tradeoff

Traditional Resource Adequacy (RA) frameworks in the U.S. undervalue the contributions of inter-regional transmission to resource adequacy during stress periods, focusing on the availability of nameplate capacity instead. However, availability of nameplate capacity does not always translate into electricity delivery, especially during tail events. Moreover, the rapid deployment of energy-limited resources and increasing electricity demand challenge existing resource adequacy frameworks and couple regional electricity demand and availability of supply via transmission. We propose a two-stage framework that goes beyond the existing capacity-centered approaches to reveal the RA contributions of transmission. In the first stage we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the merits of transmission expansion via Pareto Frontiers under alternative futures of no transmission investment, primary energy resources availability and demand growth. The second stage focuses on tail events and leverages the results of the first stage to characterize the risk profile of regional consumers across the U.S. under the alternative energy futures. We find that no new transmission can lead to a more expensive and less reliable national grid across scenarios, however, the impact on regional RA can vary. The probabilistic analysis reveals that transmission investments can alleviate the tail risk of consumers, however, the availability of fuel resources does not always alleviate regional tail risks. Our findings inform policymakers and utilities on the prioritization of transmission investments to mitigate the risk of widespread outages, also for tail events, and ensure reliable and affordable electricity delivery to all.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Scalable Stochastic Transmission Expansion: A Use Case for ExaSGD

The intermittent nature of renewable energy poses new challenges for power grids due to its variable and un- certain power output. These features of renewable generation are becoming more relevant to transmission planning as grids reach higher penetration levels of renewable energy. In this paper we present an approach for transmission planning based on scalable computational approaches which enable the explicit consideration of operational uncertainties in the planning process. Using three-stage stochastic programming and the progressive hedging algorithm, we compute transmission expansion decisions on a modified RTS-GMLC test system. We augment the grid with large amounts of wind generation and consider many operational scenarios subject to wind uncertainty. This is an example of a possible use of the ExaSGD security constrained AC optimal power flow solver.

Exascale Computing Project↗

Analysis of Multi-Output Hybrid Energy Systems Interacting with the Grid: Application of Improved Price-Taker and Price-Maker Approaches to Nuclear-Hydrogen Systems

The growing recognition of the value of hydrogen as an energy intermediate in supporting future power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy has prompted many studies to quantify the economic potential of multi-output hybrid systems, which are one type of integrated energy systems (IES). Because of the complexity of modeling multiple sectors, these studies typically use simplified modeling approaches to capture the interactions between sectors. In this study, we explore the implications of alternative modeling approaches for nuclear-hydrogen IES focusing on a power system in the Midwest United States. We combine highly resolved capacity expansion and production cost modeling tools of the power system with a detailed hydrogen system optimization tool to determine the optimal electrolyzer and storage sizing and optimal operations of the nuclear-hydrogen hybrid resource across three future study years. We compare economic and operational outcomes across a spectrum of modeling approaches, including a non-hybridized base approach; a traditional price-taker approach that does not include the impact of hydrogen production on the electricity system; a power-system-focused price-maker approach that does not account for temporal hydrogen constraints; and two improved price-taker and price-maker approaches that each address the impact of revenue-optimal levels of electricity production on the resulting power system and temporal hydrogen constraints on the overall feasible solution. Results show how a traditional price-taker approach can overestimate the economic benefits of multi-output nuclear-hydrogen IES compared to our two improved approaches that estimate both hydrogen system constraints and power system interaction. We find that hydrogen output requirements and storage size limits are key drivers to overall operations and some economic outcomes. Under our assumed constant hydrogen output requirement, storage costs, test system, and modeling approaches, our results indicate that hybridization can provide a net benefit, but results are sensitive to the treatment of hydrogen revenues and electricity prices as impacted by the power system evolution.

capacity expansion modeling↗

The interaction of wholesale electricity market structures under futures with decarbonization policy goals: A complexity conundrum

Competitive wholesale electricity markets can help facilitate energy system decarbonization by incentivizing investments in clean energy technologies that meet evolving system needs. We explore market structure impacts on generator operations and deployment by risk-averse, heterogeneous investor firms using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite - Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Here we apply clean energy targets of 45%-100% by 2035 considering energy, ancillary services, capacity, and clean energy credit products and pricing and eligibility rules. Results highlight a complexity conundrum, whereby finding the "right" market design to achieve decarbonization goals and avoid unintended consequences can be a highly-nuanced, non-incremental challenge. Carefully designed energy-only markets can achieve the same clean energy targets as capacity market structures but with different revenue and profitability outcomes. Operating reserve demand curve-based scarcity pricing can substitute capacity markets for similar deployment outcomes. Carbon pricing alone is most effective at achieving decarbonization levels at low clean energy targets, and clean energy credit markets and carbon pricing are substitutionary at high clean energy targets. Restricting technology participation in capacity and operating reserve markets can impact deployment and operations, even for nonrestricted technologies. Adding an inertia product with fast frequency response yields insufficient provision at high clean energy targets, but work is needed to understand frequency requirements and capabilities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Exploring sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region

South America has abundant natural water and energy resources, and exploiting these resources to achieve a clean energy future is central to the continent’s economic and sustainable development objectives for the next several decades. Designing pathways to achieving this clean energy future requires better understanding the structural, techno-economic, and policy forces that may influence the future development of the electricity sector in the region. Here, we focus on an interconnected electricity system of five South American countries – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay – which represent major electricity generation, consumption, and trade dynamics in the region. We explore the implications of various forces that could shape the future composition of the power sector in the sub-region, including: evolving renewable energy cost and performance, natural gas prices, cross-border interconnection facilities, early retirement of installed hydropower, and different decarbonization goals. We use a model framework based on a power system planning platform (GridPath) to co-optimize investment and operations of generation, storage, and transmission facilities out to 2050. Our results in a Reference scenario indicate that the electricity system can maintain a relatively clean energy portfolio by leveraging existing hydropower capacity and integrating increasingly cost-competitive wind and solar power. However, dependence on natural gas in the region is likely to remain high. A low-carbon electricity system can cost-effectively be achieved through policy interventions (e.g., renewable portfolio standards) and by diversifying investments in wind, solar, battery storage, and some new hydropower capacity. We also find that existing hydropower is critical for maintaining reliable future grid operations. Enhanced regional electricity trade, mostly based on existing interconnection capacities with nominal investment in new transmission, can significantly benefit the clean energy transition in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗