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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Technoeconomic Opportunities in Automation for Nuclear Microreactors

Achieving full decarbonization of all economic sectors remains a challenge, especially in niche markets. For example, remote communities and industrial or mining activities detached from the main electric grid heavily rely on fossil fuels, similar to urban and industrial microgrids with combined heat and power needs. A combination of renewables and energy storage is often not suitable due to cost, reliability, intermittency, and large storage requirements. Small nuclear reactors with a flexible purpose could serve these applications. Microreactors (MR) are a class of reactors that are compact, factory manufactured, transportable, and self-regulating. Typically, they generate much less power than their large reactor counterparts. The main advantages of microreactors include the versatile nature of the energy produced, the reliability of supply, and freedom from having to transport and store large quantities of fuels on-site, coupled with the absence of dependence on an electrical grid. A strong business case is needed to move from the microreactor prototype to the commercialization phase. In fact, fossil fuels are still relatively inexpensive, and in the near term, carbon credits will be available to virtually compensate for emissions. For microreactors, one of the main costs in operation and maintenance (O&M) is their staffing levels. In this study, we investigate how to optimize the number (and thus the cost) of workers, moving from a traditional, fully manned, on-site personnel approach to an unmanned, remote personnel approach. We examine four different staffing models that can be implemented as the technology matures and evolves. We estimate the staffing needs of each model and build a business case to justify the substitution of on-site personnel with adequate technologies. To do so, we propose a cost model to quantify potential cost reductions from automating O&M activities. The model accounts for both the reduction in cost derived from the reduced number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) employees and the increase in cost derived from the need to buy new control hardware as needed. Applying the cost model that we created to different scenarios, an on-site O&M cost reduction exceeding 80% can be expected. Additionally, we found that it is more impactful to focus on automating routine O&M tasks rather than attempting to automate transient management (shutdowns, restarts, monitoring condition deviations). In fact, transients typically account for less than 1% of the total FTE time spent on the reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Life cycle analysis of polylactic acids from different wet waste feedstocks

Producing a valuable chemical product through diversion of wet wastes can simultaneously resolve the problems associated with increasing wastes and greenhouse gas emissions from conventional chemical production processes. In this work, we investigated the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, water, and fossil-fuel consumption for waste-derived polylactic acids (PLA) from three different waste feedstocks, namely wastewater sludge, food waste, and swine manure, using the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) model. The decarbonization potential of replacing fossil-based resins with the waste-derived polymer was also investigated. The results show that swine manure-to-PLA pathway was the least carbon intensive (—1.4 kgCO 2 e/kg) among the three waste-to-PLA pathways on a cradle-to-grave basis, followed by the food waste case (—1.3 kgCO 2 e/kg) and then by the wastewater sludge case (0.6 kgCO 2 e/kg). In the baseline scenario, all three waste-to-PLA pathways were less carbon intensive than both fossil-based PET and HDPE on a cradle-to-grave basis: 66% (vs. PET) and 56% (vs. HDPE), 171 and 192%, 181 and 205% reduction in GHG emissions for wastewater sludge-, food waste-, and swine manure-to-PLA pathway, respectively. For all sensitivity cases investigated, the food waste- and swine manure-to-PLA pathways were significantly less carbon intensive than their fossil-counterparts. In terms of the annual decarbonization potential of replacing fossil-based PET or HDPE, the wastewater sludge- and food waste-pathway showed higher mitigation potential than the swine manure-pathway: i) 18–28 kilotons CO 2 e-reduction per year for wastewater sludge pathway; ii) 23–26 kTCO 2 e-reduction/yr for food waste pathway; and iii) about 5 kTCO 2 e-reduction/yr for swine manure pathway depending on the type of conventional resin replaced. However, given the abundant availability of the swine manure feedstocks across the United States, the decarbonization potential of swine manure-based pathway can also increase as the plant capacity or the number of plants grow.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Hybrid Energy: Combining Nuclear and Other Energy Sources

The leading cause of global climate change is generally accepted to be growing emissions of greenhouse gas (GHG) as a result of increased use of fossil fuels [1]. Among various sources of GHG, the global electricity supply sector generates the largest share of GHG emissions (37.5% of total CO2 emissions) [2]. Since the current electricity production heavily relies on fossil fuels, it is envisioned that bolstering generation technologies based on non-emitting energy sources, i.e., nuclear and/or renewables could reduce future GHG emissions. Integrated nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems HES) are very-low-emitting options, but they are capital-intensive technologies that should operate at full capacities to maximize profits. Hence, electricity generators often pay the grid to take electricity when demand is low, resulting in negative profits for many hours per year. Instead of wasting an excess generation capacity at negative profit during off-peak hours when electricity prices are low, nuclear-renewable HES could result in positive profits by storing and/or utilizing surplus thermal and/or electrical energy to produce useful storable products to meet industrial and transportation demands. Consequently, it is necessary (1) to identify key integrated system options based on specific regions and (2) to propose optimal operating strategy to economically produce products on demand. In prioritizing region-specific HES options, available resources, markets, existing infrastructures, and etc. need to be researched to identify attractive system options. For example, the scarcity of water (market) and the availability of abundant solar radiation make solar energy (resource) a suitable option to mitigate the water deficit the Central-Southern region of the U.S. Thus, a solar energy-driven desalination process would be an attractive option to be integrated into a nuclear power plant to support the production of fresh water in this region. In this work, we introduce a particular HES option proposed for a specific U.S. region and briefly describe our modeling assumptions and procedure utilized for its analysis. Preliminary simulation results are also included addressing several technical characteristics of the proposed nuclear-renewable HES.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Ab initio based OH initiated oxidation kinetics of glycerol carbonate: A promising biofuel component

The global energy demand is steadily increasing because of the population explosion and economic growth. Fossil fuels supply around 85 % of global primary energy demand. On one hand, fulfilling the increasing energy demands is a big challenge for the next few decades. On the other hand, the continued burning of fossil fuels leads to higher CO2 emissions, severely impacting global warming. Therefore, the policymakers vow to shift from conventional fuels to renewable resources for economic, environmental, and future energy security reasons. In this context, biofuels from lignocellulosic biomass and/or carbon-neutral fuels produced in the sustainable carbon cycle can close the carbon cycle and reach net zero-carbon emission. Recently, glycerol carbonate has been proposed as a promising fuel or fuel additive for future sustainability. Therefore, we investigated the hydrogen abstraction reactions of glycerol carbonate (GC) by OH radicals using high-level ab initio and variational transition state theory calculations. We mapped out the potential energy surface using the CCSD(T)/cc-pV(D, T)Z//MP2/cc-pVTZ level of theory. Here we used the ab initio parameters to obtain the site-specific rate coefficients by employing the variational transition state theory. We observed that every hydrogen atom in GC displays a unique reactivity with OH radicals. We derived branching ratio of each channel that are difficult to access experimentally. The overall rate coefficients exhibit a strong non-Arrhenius behaviour, which can be represented as: $k^{CVT/SCT}_{ov}$ (T) = 3.39 x 10 -20 x T 2.659 x e$\frac{-750.0 Jmol^{-1}}{RT}$ $\frac{cm^{3}}{molecule s}$ This is the first reported rate data for the glycerol carbonate and OH radicals reaction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantification of regional net CO 2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements

Inverse model intercomparison projects (MIPs) provide a chance to assess the uncertainties in inversion estimates arising from various sources. However, accurately quantifying ensemble CO 2 flux errors remains challenging and often relies on the ensemble spread. This study proposes a method for quantifying the errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO 2 flux estimates from models taken from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 MIP by using independent airborne CO 2 measurements for the period 2015–2017. We first calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the ensemble mean of posterior CO 2 concentrations and airborne observations and then isolate the CO 2 concentration errors caused solely by the ensemble mean of posterior net fluxes by subtracting the observation, representation, and transport errors from seven regions. Our analysis reveals that the flux errors projected onto CO 2 space account for 55 %–85 % of the regional average RMSE over the 3 years, ranging from 0.88 to 1.91 ppm. In five regions, the error estimates based on observations exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of posterior fluxes by a factor of 1.33–1.93, implying an underestimation of the actual flux errors, while their magnitudes are comparable in two regions. The adjoint sensitivity analysis identifies that the underestimation of flux errors is prominent where the magnitudes of fossil fuel emissions exceed those of terrestrial-biosphere fluxes by a factor of 3–31 over the 3 years. This suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates associated with errors in the prescribed fossil fuel emissions common to all models. Our study emphasizes the value of airborne measurements for quantifying regional errors in ensemble net CO 2 flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 2 (Presentation)

This presentation accompanies Phase 2 of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, a follow-on to Phase 1, which examined the operational impacts of high penetrations of variable renewable generation on the electric power system in the West and was one of the largest variable generation studies to date. High penetrations of variable generation can induce cycling of fossil-fueled generators. Cycling leads to wear-and-tear costs and changes in emissions. Phase 2 calculated these costs and emissions, and simulated grid operations for a year to investigate the detailed impact of variable generation on the fossil-fueled fleet. The presentation highlights the scope of the study and results.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Strong regional atmospheric 14 C signature of respired CO 2 observed from a tall tower over the midwestern United States

Radiocarbon in CO 2 ( 14 CO 2 ) measurements can aid in discriminating between fast (<1 year) and slower (>5–10 years) cycling of C between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere due to the 14 C disequilibrium between atmospheric and terrestrial C. However, 14 CO 2 in the atmosphere is typically much more strongly impacted by fossil fuel emissions of CO 2 , and, thus, observations often provide little additional constraints on respiratory flux estimates at regional scales. Here we describe a data set of 14 CO 2 observations from a tall tower in northern Wisconsin (USA) where fossil fuel influence is far enough removed that during the summer months, the biospheric component of the 14 CO 2 budget dominates. We find that the terrestrial biosphere is responsible for a significant contribution to 14 CO 2 that is 2–3 times higher than predicted by the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach terrestrial ecosystem model for observations made in 2010. This likely includes a substantial contribution from the North American boreal ecoregion, but transported biospheric emissions from outside the model domain cannot be ruled out. The 14 CO 2 enhancement also appears somewhat decreased in observations made over subsequent years, suggesting that 2010 may be anomalous. Furthermore, with these caveats acknowledged, we discuss the implications of the observation/model comparison in terms of possible systematic biases in the model versus short-term anomalies in the observations. Going forward, this isotopic signal could be exploited as an important indicator to better constrain both the long-term carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems and the short-term impact of disturbance-based loss of carbon to the atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

WZ Sagittae, SN 1054 and SN 1006 space weather

Statement of the Problem: The earth’s atmosphere experience changes that are caused by pollution from debris streams from exploding stars, nova and supernova. The debris streams also cause global warming. Earth’s sensitivity to the energy added to the biosphere is shown by the areas of major sea ice loss through recent years. Methodology & Theoretical Orientation: By knowing the year of arrival of debris streams at planet earth the longitudinal locations of observations of changing sea ice can be correlated to specific debris stream’s termini. The actual termini points are identified for WZ Sagittae, SN 1006 and SN 1054. Findings: Global warming effects have been correlated with the arrival time of nova and supernova explosions through disappearing sea ice over the past nine years. Conclusion & Significance: The current trend for global warming specialist to blame fossil fuels and CO2 for the increase of planetary temperatures may be incorrect and the true source of our current global warming may be due to debris impact streams from nova WZ Sagittae, SN 1054 and SN 1006. The incentive to inhibit the fossil fuel industry could be changed to design a mechanism or system to stop the incoming particle stream from exploding stars to protect living organisms on our planet. The disappearance of sea ice areas that are correlated with the debris streams being studied is proof of the Supernova and Nova Impact Theory (SNIT).

Sokeland, William P.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Today's Energy Challenges, Tomorrow's Solutions: Electrons to Molecules: Building a New Foundation for Industrial Processes

The vast majority of global goods and materials we use on a daily basis are manufactured from fossil fuel precursors - chemical building blocks strung together using combinations of heat, pressure, and chemical catalysis. NREL, along with energy industry partners, is exploring the use of renewable, affordable electricity as the driving force for the conversion of low-energy molecules - such as water and carbon dioxide (CO2) - to generate other molecules that could be used as chemicals, materials, fuels, or energy storage.Through this research, NREL and its partners are working together to determine the most efficient and cost-effective solutions for energy storage as well as safer ways to create chemicals and plastics that do not rely solely on fossil fuels.

affordable electricity↗
DOE OSTI2014

T-Q Diagram and Heat Source Assessment – Preliminary Evaluation

Presentation of a preliminary assessment of the fossil fuel heat sources for integration with the supercritical CO2 cycle: (1) PC, Air/Oxy, (2) CFB, Air/Oxy, (3) PFBC, Air/Oxy. It shows the development of T-Q diagrams to evaluate the effectiveness of various heat sources for the supercritical CO2 cycle. Heat sources include fossil fuels, Nuclear, and Solar. Conclusions include: (1) Current CFB (Air/Oxy) T-Q profile more suited to sCO2 cycle (for TIT < CFB furnace temperature), (2) PC/CFB design needs to be modified to take advantage of the high efficiency sCO2 cycle and (3) sCO2 cycle should be optimized to match the heat source better.

CFB↗
DOE OSTI2020

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66% for the present day to roughly 68% to 85% by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (~5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5°C warming on the other.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solar Canopy Expansion Project (Final Technical Report)

This project is a parking-lot canopy solar photovoltaic system, consisting of four canopy structures and 1,080 470-watt (W) modules. The nameplate rating of the project is 507.6 kilowatts direct current (kWDC) at Standard Test Condition (STC), and 448 kilowatts alternating current (kWAC). It is interconnected to the existing Tribe-owned medium-voltage micro-grid generation system via a step-up transformer and short medium-voltage line. This project offsets energy usage from more expensive existing sources, specifically the Tribe-owned gas-fired engine generators providing the primary power source for existing Tribal facilities and the electric utility, which provides an alternate source. The solar photovoltaic system is a renewable source, which has the benefit of reducing reliance on fossil-fuel burning sources. By reducing demand on existing Tribe-owned conventional generators, the project has avoided the need to add more conventional generation and has prolonged the lifespan of existing gas-fired engine generators. The project reduced energy costs and reliance on fossil-fuel burning power sources, increasing Tribe-owned generating sources and self-reliance, and prolonging the lifespan of existing generators. A side benefit to the project is the production of dozens of covered parking spaces in the existing parking lot.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

CO 2 Capture Going BIG

“Currently, the world is way off track in meeting the Paris Agreement climate goals. It cannot get back on track without CCS”. This statement, issued by the Global CCS Institute in its recent report on The Global Status of CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage), underlines the importance of developing new methods and technologies to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the atmospheric CO 2 concentration has increased from 280 to 410 parts per million (ppm), which is a 46% increase. Most of the added CO 2 can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions from energy production (i.e., burning coal, natural gas, and oil) and other industries (e.g., cement, steel). The CO 2 level will likely continue to rise in the coming decades, as the world population and the energy consumption continue to increase and rely on fossil fuels. While the Earth’s ecosystems have mechanisms for reducing the amounts of CO 2 present in the atmosphere, absorbing roughly half of our annual emissions, the other half, consisting of about 18 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year, will have to be addressed through CCS technologies. At the same time, the global average temperature has already risen about 1 °C over the course of the 20th century, and will likely exceed the 1.5 °C increase limit in a few decades. Undeniably, as the Earth is out of energy balance with the current atmospheric composition, there is more warming in the pipeline even if the global emissions were to be cut to zero today. A recent report from the U.S. National Academy of Sciences concluded that limiting the increase in the global temperature to less than 2 °C by the end of this century becomes exceedingly challenging without large-scale deployment of Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs). NETs, such as Direct Air Capture (DAC), remove CO 2 out of the atmosphere, in effect reducing past emissions. They also can address dispersed emissions from transportation and buildings, which currently account to about 50% of global annual emissions.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2016

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

Here in this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO 2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010-2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO 2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO 2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO 2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts a 11.3% reduction under the ‘high’ carbon tax. The main reasons for this difference are differences in assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO 2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. In terms of technology pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. Finally, according to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials over the last decade. The industry’s current growth trajectory is exponential and plastic production is expected to double or triple by 2050. The rapidly increasing production of plastics and the continued reliance on fossil fuels for production, have contributed to numerous environmental problems and health harms. As a result, plastic pollution has become an increasing threat to natural ecosystems, human health and climate. However, there is a lack of granularity on the contribution of the primary plastics specifically to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on the remaining global carbon budget needed to stay below a 1.5°C or 2°C global average temperature rise. In this report, we explore the contribution of primary plastic production to climate change disaggregated by polymer and technology. To this end, we have developed comprehensive bottom-up modeling of GHG emissions from global primary plastic production, with a special focus on polymer value chains. We have analyzed the results under various growth scenarios in the context of carbon budgets compatible with a 1.5°C global trajectory. Modeling includes the material flows of all production stages, processes and technologies used in primary plastic production value chains, including from the extraction of fossil fuels required for production to shaping the final product. We specifically focus on nine major types of fossil fuelbased plastic polymers that are produced and consumed in large quantities: three types of polyethylene (PE) – low-density (LDPE), linear low-density (LLDPE), and high-density (HDPE) – as well as polypropylene (PP); polyethylene terephthalate (PET); polyvinyl chloride (PVC); polystyrene (PS) and other key styrene-based plastics such as styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). Together these account for about 80% of plastics production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A multi-model study of energy supply investments in Latin America under climate control policy

In this article we investigate energy supply investment requirements in Latin America until 2050 through a multi-model approach as jointly applied in the CLIMACAP-LAMP research project. We compare a business-as-usual scenario needed to satisfy anticipated future energy demand with a set of scenarios that aim to significantly reduce CO 2 emissions in the region. We find that more than a doubling of annual investments, in absolute terms, occurs in the business-as-usual scenario between 2010 and 2050, while investments may treble over the same time horizon when climate policies are introduced. However, investment costs as a share of GDP decline over time in the business-as-usual scenario, as well as the climate policy scenarios, due to the fast economic growth in that region. Business-as-usual cumulative investments of 1.4 trillion US$ are anticipated between 2010 and 2050 in energy supply, and increase when additional climate policies are introduced: under a carbon tax of 50 $/tCO 2 e in 2020 increasing with a rate of 4% per year, an additional 0.6 trillion US$ (+45%) investment is needed. Climate control measures lead to increased investment in low-carbon electricity technologies, primarily wind, solar, and CCS applied to fossil fuels and biomass. Our analysis suggests that compared to the business-as-usual case an average additional 21 billion US$ per year of electricity supply investments is required in Latin America until 2050 under a climate policy aiming at 2°C climate stabilization. Conversely, there is a disinvestment in fossil fuels. For oil production, a growth from 58 billion US$ to 130 billion US$ annual investment by 2050 is anticipated in a business-as-usual scenario: ambitious climate policy reduces this to 28 billion US$. Finally, mobilizing necessary additional investment capital, in particular for low-carbon technologies, will be a challenge, and suitable frameworks and enabling environments for a scale-up in public and private investment will be critical to help reach required levels. The economic case for such a transition still remains to be articulated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Determinants of CO{sub 2} emissions in ASEAN countries using energy and mining indicators

Carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is the main greenhouse gas emitted from human activities. Industrial revolution is one of the triggers to accelerate the quantity of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere which lead to undesirable changes in the cycle of carbon. Like China and United States which are affected by the economic development growth, the atmospheric CO{sub 2} level in ASEAN countries is expected to be higher from year to year. This study focuses on energy and mining indicators, namely alternative and nuclear energy, energy production, combustible renewables and waste, fossil fuel energy consumption and the pump price for diesel fuel that contribute to CO{sub 2} emissions. Six ASEAN countries were examined from 1970 to 2010 using panel data approach. The result shows that model of cross section-fixed effect is the most appropriate model with the value of R-squared is about 86%. Energy production and fossil fuel energy consumption are found to be significantly influenced to CO{sub 2} emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗