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Gene family expansions and transcriptome signatures uncover fungal adaptations to wood decay

Because they comprise some of the most efficient wood-decayers, Polyporales fungi impact carbon cycling in forest environment. Despite continuous discoveries on the enzymatic machinery involved in wood decomposition, the vision on their evolutionary adaptation to wood decay and genome diversity remains incomplete. We combined the genome sequence information from 50 Polyporales species, including 26 newly sequenced genomes and sought for genomic and functional adaptations to wood decay through the analysis of genome composition and transcriptome responses to different carbon sources. The genomes of Polyporales from different phylogenetic clades showed poor conservation in macrosynteny, indicative of genome rearrangements. We observed different gene family expansion/contraction histories for plant cell wall degrading enzymes in core polyporoids and phlebioids and captured expansions for genes involved in signalling and regulation in the lineages of white rotters. Furthermore, we identified conserved cupredoxins, thaumatin-like proteins and lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases with a yet uncharacterized appended module as new candidate players in wood decomposition. Given the current need for enzymatic toolkits dedicated to the transformation of renewable carbon sources, the observed genomic diversity among Polyporales strengthens the relevance of mining Polyporales biodiversity to understand the molecular mechanisms of wood decay.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Disentangling the effects of sulfate and other seawater ions on microbial communities and greenhouse gas emissions in a coastal forested wetland

Seawater intrusion into freshwater wetlands causes changes in microbial communities and biogeochemistry, but the exact mechanisms driving these changes remain unclear. Here we use a manipulative laboratory microcosm experiment, combined with DNA sequencing and biogeochemical measurements, to tease apart the effects of sulfate from other seawater ions. We examined changes in microbial taxonomy and function as well as emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in response to changes in ion concentrations. Greenhouse gas emissions and microbial richness and composition were altered by artificial seawater regardless of whether sulfate was present, whereas sulfate alone did not alter emissions or communities. Surprisingly, addition of sulfate alone did not lead to increases in the abundance of sulfate reducing bacteria or sulfur cycling genes. Similarly, genes involved in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycling responded more strongly to artificial seawater than to sulfate. These results suggest that other ions present in seawater, not sulfate, drive ecological and biogeochemical responses to seawater intrusion and may be drivers of increased methane emissions in soils that received artificial seawater addition. A better understanding of how the different components of salt water alter microbial community composition and function is necessary to forecast the consequences of coastal wetland salinization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forest residue harvest optimization: spanning the bridge between plant biology and biorefinery performance

Forestry residues have immense potential as alternative feedstocks to petroleum, yet their inherent complexity remains a major challenge to widespread use. Pairing the temporal rhythms of plant biology with biorefinery performance is critical to industrial-scale biorefinery development. Here, we provide the first report of a techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) for a model integrated reductive catalytic fractionation (RCF)–molten salt hydrolysis process for forestry residues varying in tree part, species, and phenophase. All forestry residues resulted in net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions vs. comparable petroleum feedstocks, with GHG emissions potentially reduced >4.0× through composition-based feedstock selection (e.g., harvesting American beech bark in spring vs. summer). Moreover, American beech twigs/branchlets and bark in leafed and emergence phenophases, respectively, had 7.9× lower predicted phenolic minimum selling prices (MSPs) vs. other feedstocks and MSPs within the current global phenolic market range. Hemicellulose content and RCF yield emerged as key parameters impacting GHG emissions and biorefinery revenue, identifying hardwood twigs/branchlets in the leafed phenophase as optimal biofeedstocks. Biorefinery expenses were dominated by purchased equipment, raw materials, and utility costs, highlighting essential areas for future study. Notably, RCF reactor pressures drove 85–90% of equipment costs, but sensitivity analysis revealed that decreasing the pressure 20% could reduce the phenol MSP 4-fold. Structural carbohydrate dynamics were also investigated using a two-step acid hydrolysis method to resolve tissue- and species-level patterns in biomass composition throughout the year to enable harvest optimization based on TEA/LCA findings. Ultimately, elucidating the impact of biofeedstock dynamics on biorefinery performance enables harvest optimization, informed engineering design, and progress towards an expanded bioeconomy.

Shapiro, Alison J. [University of Delaware, Newark↗

Signatures of aerosol-cloud interactions in GiOcean: a coupled global reanalysis with two-moment cloud microphysics

Aerosols influence the Earth's radiative balance through direct interactions with radiation and by affecting cloud properties. Anthropogenic aerosols have led to cooling during the industrial era through aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI), including aerosol effects on cloud microphysical properties and the subsequent adjustments. However, large uncertainties remain in Earth system models (ESMs) regarding the magnitude of this cooling. In part, ESMs substantially disagree on cloud properties, thermodynamics, the hydrological cycle, and general circulation. Reanalysis provides a useful avenue for exploring the impact of ACI on clouds and radiation because its atmosphere is forced to match realistic conditions through the assimilation of observations. Here, we explore the impact of ACI on clouds in the GiOcean reanalysis – the first to incorporate aerosol-cloud interactions. We contrast variables important for ACI between GiOcean and satellite observations and develop 2-dimensional lookup tables of ACI for both using a source-sink budget perspective to attribute the changes in cloud droplet number (Nd) and liquid water path (LWP) to aerosol and meteorology. A compositing analysis using lookup tables shows that GiOcean captures key aspects of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, including (1) activation of aerosol into cloud droplets, (2) effective precipitation scavenging of Nd, (3) suppression of precipitation by high Nd in regions with heavy aerosol emissions. In contrast, satellite observations do not exhibit clear patterns for processes (2) and (3). Random Forest analysis shows that interannual variability in Nd and LWP over the Northern Hemisphere ocean in GiOcean is primarily driven by precipitation, consistent with satellite observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Paraburkholderia madseniana sp. nov., a phenolic acid-degrading bacterium isolated from acidic forest soil

RP11 T was isolated from forest soil following enrichment with 4-hydroxybenzoic acid. Cells of RP11 T are aerobic, non-sporulating, exhibit swimming motility, and are rods (0.8 µm by 1.4 µm) that often occur as diplobacillus or in short chains (3–4 cells). Optimal growth on minimal media containing 4-hydroxybenzoic acid (µ=0.216 hr -1 ) occurred at 30 °C, pH 6.5 or 7.0 and 0% salinity. Comparative chemotaxonomic, genomic and phylogenetic analyses revealed the isolate was distinct from its closest relative type strains identified as Paraburkholderia aspalathi LMG 27731 T , Paraburkholderia fungorum LMG 16225 T and Paraburkholderia caffeinilytica CF1 T . Strain RP11 T is genetically distinct from P. aspalathi , its closest relative, in terms of 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity (98.7%), genomic average nucleotide identity (94%) and in silico DNA–DNA hybridization (56.7%±2.8). The composition of fatty acids and substrate utilization pattern differentiated strain RP11 T from its closest relatives, including growth on phthalic acid. Strain RP11 T encoded the greatest number of aromatic degradation genes of all eleven closely related type strains and uniquely encoded a phthalic acid dioxygenase and paralog of the 3-hydroxybenzoate 4-monooxygenase. The only ubiquinone detected in strain RP11 T was Q-8, and the major cellular fatty acids were C 16:0 , 3OH-C 16:0 , C 17:0 cyclo, C 19:0 cyclo ω8c, and summed feature 8 (C 18:1 ω7c/ω6c). On the basis of this polyphasic approach, it was determined that strain RP11 T represents a novel species from the genus Paraburkholderia for which the name Paraburkholderia madseniana sp. nov. is proposed. The type strain is RP11 T (=DSM 110123 T =LMG 31517 T ).

Microbiology↗

Soil Microbes Trade-Off Biogeochemical Cycling for Stress Tolerance Traits in Response to Year-Round Climate Change

Winter air temperatures are rising faster than summer air temperatures in high-latitude forests, increasing the frequency of soil freeze/thaw events in winter. To determine how climate warming and soil freeze/thaw cycles affect soil microbial communities and the ecosystem processes they drive, we leveraged the Climate Change across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the northeastern United States, where replicate field plots receive one of three climate treatments: warming (+5°C above ambient in the growing season), warming in the growing season + winter freeze/thaw cycles (+5°C above ambient +4 freeze/thaw cycles during winter), and no treatment. Soil samples were taken from plots at six time points throughout the growing season and subjected to amplicon (rDNA) and metagenome sequencing. We found that soil fungal and bacterial community composition were affected by changes in soil temperature, where the taxonomic composition of microbial communities shifted more with the combination of growing-season warming and increased frequency of soil freeze/thaw cycles in winter than with warming alone. Warming increased the relative abundance of brown rot fungi and plant pathogens but decreased that of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, all of which recovered under combined growing-season warming and soil freeze/thaw cycles in winter. The abundance of animal parasites increased significantly under combined warming and freeze/thaw cycles. We also found that warming and soil freeze/thaw cycles suppressed bacterial taxa with the genetic potential for carbon (i.e., cellulose) decomposition and soil nitrogen cycling, such as N fixation and the final steps of denitrification. These new soil communities had higher genetic capacity for stress tolerance and lower genetic capacity to grow or reproduce, relative to the communities exposed to warming in the growing season alone. Our observations suggest that initial suppression of biogeochemical cycling with year-round climate change may be linked to the emergence of taxa that trade-off growth for stress tolerance traits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing Molecular Level Understanding of Aerosol Processes in the Amazon and Integration with Modeling (Final Report)

The Amazon forest is being converted to urban and agricultural uses through land clearing including large scale burning. It is also the dominant source of biogenic hydrocarbons globally, which can chemically transform in the atmosphere to form secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Most aerosols (solid or liquid particles suspended in air) are organic and formed through secondary chemical processes. This means that SOA chemical composition and their physical properties can impact cloud formation, the hydrologic cycle, and radiative balance in this region. The 2014 GoAmazon field campaign at the DOE/ARM facility at T3 afforded study of chemical transformations in the region downwind of Manaus. Local biogenic hydrocarbons emissions are high, and their chemical oxidation can be studied with varying degrees of influence by the urban plume. We collected aerosol filter samples and made time-resolved molecular level measurements by deploying a sequential filter sampler and a Semi-Volatile Thermal desorption Aerosol Gas Chromatograph (SV-TAG) during Jan-Mar 2014 (wet season) and Aug-Oct 2014 (dry season).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Point Cloud Based Mapping of Understory Shrub Fuel Distribution, Estimation of Fuel Consumption and Relationship to Pyrolysis Gas Emissions on Experimental Prescribed Burns

Forest fires spread via production and combustion of pyrolysis gases in the understory. The goal of the present paper is to understand the spatial location, distribution, and fraction (relative to the overstory) of understory plants, in this case, sparkleberry shrub, namely its degree of understory consumption upon burn, and to search for correlations between the degree of shrub consumption to the composition of emitted pyrolysis gases. Data were collected in situ at seven small experimental prescribed burns at Ft. Jackson, an army base in South Carolina, USA. Using airborne laser scanning (ALS) to map overstory tree crowns and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to characterize understory shrub fuel density, both pre- and postburn estimates of sparkleberry coverage were obtained. Sparkleberry clump polygons were manually digitized from a UAV-derived orthoimage of the understory and intersected with the TLS point cloud-derived rasters of pre- and postburn shrub fuel bulk density; these were compared in relation to overstory crown cover as well as to ground truth. Shrub fuel consumption was estimated from the digitized images; sparkleberry clump distributions were generally found to not correlate well to the overstory tree crowns, suggesting it is shade-tolerant. Moreover, no relationship was found between the magnitude of the fuel consumption and the chemical composition of pyrolysis gases, even though mixing ratios of 25 individual gases were measured.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stability of tropical forest tree carbon-water relations in a rainfall exclusion treatment through shifts in effective water uptake depth

Increasing severity and frequency of drought is predicted for large portions of the terrestrial biosphere, with major impacts already documented in wet tropical forests. Using a 4-year rainfall exclusion experiment in the Daintree Rainforest in northeast Australia, we examined canopy tree responses to reduced precipitation and soil water availability by quantifying seasonal changes in plant hydraulic and carbon traits for 11 tree species between control and drought treatments. Even with reduced soil volumetric water content in the upper 1 m of soil in the drought treatment, we found no significant difference between treatments for predawn and midday leaf water potential, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, foliar stable carbon isotope composition, leaf mass per area, turgor loss point, xylem vessel anatomy, or leaf and stem nonstructural carbohydrates. While empirical measurements of aboveground traits revealed homeostatic maintenance of plant water status and traits in response to reduced soil moisture, modeled belowground dynamics revealed that trees in the drought treatment shifted the depth from which water was acquired to deeper soil layers. Finally, these findings reveal that belowground acclimation of tree water uptake depth may buffer tropical rainforests from more severe droughts that may arise in future with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Whole-tree dormant season nitrogen pools for different species receiving combinations of fertilization and irrigation after one short rotation

Our understanding of the accretion and distribution of tree tissue nitrogen (N) pools across a variety of species and genotypes suitable for short-rotation woody crop (SRWC) production in response to water and N availability remains limited. We measured dormant-season, rotation-length, whole-tree N pools for five tree genotypes from four species (two eastern cottonwood, Populus deltoides Bartr., genotypes; American sycamore, Platanus occidentalis L.; American sweetgum, Liquidambar styraciflua L.; and loblolly pine, Pinus taeda L.) receiving irrigation (I), fertilization (F), their combination (IF), or no resources manipulation (C). Our results demonstrate that foliar nitrogen concentration [N] responded to fertilization but was constrained within genotype-specific ranges and varied temporally. Tree genotypes differed in their composite and component tissue N content (N C ), and these differences mostly reflected tissue mass (i.e., larger components and trees resulted in higher N C ). Resource amendments (I, F, IF) resulted in up to 3.8-fold increases in N C compared with C, which were most pronounced for sycamore and sweetgum with F and IF treatments, respectively. By the end of the rotation, forest stands accumulated 73 to 452 kg N ha –1 in tree tissues with 40 – 78 % distributed aboveground and 22 – 60 % distributed belowground. A critical difference between genotypes was that all hardwoods exhibited larger belowground N distributions than the evergreen conifer. Our results stress the importance of belowground N pools and highlight differences among genotypes. Furthermore, our study underscores valuable information about N pools across genotypes suitable for SRWC production, which can be leveraged to inform fertilization plans and devise sustainable nutrient management as production expands across marginal lands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Invasive wild pig ( Sus scrofa ) diets on barrier islands in the southeastern United States

BACKGROUND: Biological invasions are a leading cause of reductions in global biodiversity. Islands are particularly sensitive to invasions, which often result in cascading impacts throughout island communities. Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) are globally invasive and pose threats to numerous taxa and ecosystems, particularly for islands where they have contributed to declines of many endemic species. However, the impacts of wild pig diet on the flora and fauna remain understudied in many island systems. RESULTS: We used DNA metabarcoding of wild pig fecal samples to quantify the seasonal diet composition of wild pigs on three barrier islands in the southeastern United States. Wild pigs exhibited a diverse diet dominated by plants, but also including marine and terrestrial animals. The diet composition of plants varied seasonally and between islands. Consumption of invertebrates also changed seasonally, with a shift to coastal invertebrates, particularly crabs, in spring and summer. Vertebrates were found in <10% of samples, but spanned broad taxa including amphibians, fish, mammals, and reptiles. Species consumed by wild pigs indicate that wild pigs use a variety of habitats within barrier islands for foraging, including maritime forests, saltmarshes, and beaches. CONCLUSIONS: An observed shift to beach foraging during sea turtle nesting season suggests wild pigs have potential to hinder nesting success on islands without established management programs. These findings provide insight into the diverse diets of wild pigs on barrier islands and highlight the need for removal of wild pigs from sensitive island ecosystems because of their potential impacts to native plant and animal communities. © 2024 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Ectomycorrhizal and Dark Septate Fungal Associations of Pinyon Pine Are Differentially Affected by Experimental Drought and Warming

Changing climates can cause shifts in temperature and precipitation, resulting in warming and drought in some regions. Although each of these factors has been shown to detrimentally affect forest ecosystems worldwide, information on the impacts of the combined effects of warming and drought is lacking. Forest trees rely on mutualistic root-associated fungi that contribute significantly to plant health and protection against climate stresses. We used a six-year, ecosystem-scale temperature and precipitation manipulation experiment targeted to simulate the climate in 2100 in the Southwestern United States to quantify the effects of drought, warming and combined drought and warming on the root colonization (abundance), species composition and diversity of ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF), and dark septate fungal endophytes in a widespread woodland tree, pinyon pine (Pinus edulis E.). Our results show that pinyon shoot growth after 6 years of these treatments was reduced more by drought than warming. The combined drought and warming treatment reduced the abundance and diversity of EMF more than either treatment alone. Individual ectomycorrhizal fungal taxa, including the drought tolerant Cenococcum geophilum, were present in all treatments but the combined drought and warming treatment. The combined drought and warming treatment also reduced the abundance of dark septate endophytes (DSE), but did not affect their diversity or species composition. The current year shoot growth of the trees correlated positively with ectomycorrhizal fungal diversity, highlighting the importance of diversity in mutualistic relationships to plant growth. Our results suggest that EMF may be more important than DSE to aboveground growth in P. edulis, but also more susceptible to the negative effects of combined climate stressors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Context matters: Natural tree mortality can lead to neighbor growth release or suppression

Where competition suppresses tree growth, mortality of adjacent trees can release the surviving individuals, leading to a growth increase. However, primary forests are complicated systems, where trees interact in both competitive and facilitative ways mediated by their size, species, and the broad ecological context in which they grow. Thus, the magnitude and even direction of growth responses to the mortality of nearby trees may vary, which has implications for our understanding of community- and ecosystem-level dynamics following mortality events. Unfortunately, although many studies focus on the impacts of light availability and general crowding on tree growth, we know relatively little about the effects of naturally occurring mortality events on the growth of neighboring trees. To address this issue, we used 40 years of data from 15 permanent forest-monitoring plots in Mt Rainier old-growth forests, comparing observed to expected radial growth of individual trees following the death of their nearest neighbor. Although we found evidence of a general growth-release response, this was not universal among all trees, with small trees in particular exhibiting growth suppression (rather than release) following neighboring tree mortality. In addition to small size, growth-suppression was more likely if the dead neighbor was the same species, consistent with facilitative effects as mediated through belowground networks. At the stand level, the average growth release after nearest neighbor mortality was greatest in low-density stands with large trees, with elevation and community composition also playing a role. Decades more monitoring could reveal how long growth release (or suppression) is sustained by individual trees following neighboring mortality events, as well as potential response lags and the role of species identity in determining whether interactions with neighbors are competitive or facilitative. Nonetheless, our results suggest that although mature trees have competitive effects on their larger neighbors, they also have an important role in supporting the ingrowth of small trees. More broadly, we demonstrate that the nature of interactions between individual neighboring trees is highly context dependent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Differentiation strategies of soil rare and abundant microbial taxa in response to changing climatic regimes

Despite the important roles of soil microbes, especially the most diverse rare taxa in maintaining community diversity and multifunctionality, how different climate regimes alter the stability and functions of the rare microbial biosphere remains unknown. We reciprocally transplanted field soils across a latitudinal gradient to simulate climate change and sampled the soils annually after harvesting the maize over the following 6 years (from 2005 to 2011). By sequencing microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicons, we found that changing climate regimes significantly altered the composition and dynamics of soil microbial communities. A continuous succession of the rare and abundant communities was observed. Rare microbial communities were more stable under changing climatic regimes, with lower variations in temporal dynamics, and higher stability and constancy of diversity. More nitrogen cycling genes were detected in the rare members than in the abundant members, including amoA, napA, nifH, nirK, nirS, norB and nrfA. Random forest analysis and receiver operating characteristics analysis showed that rare taxa may act as potential contributors to maize yield under changing climatics. The study indicates that the taxonomically and functionally diverse rare biosphere has the potential to increase functional redundancy and enhance the ability of soil communities to counteract environmental disturbances. With ongoing global climate change, exploring the succession process and functional changes of rare taxa may be important in elucidating the ecosystem stability and multifunctionality that are mediated by microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosols from anthropogenic and biogenic sources and their interactions – modeling aerosol formation, optical properties, and impacts over the central Amazon basin

The Green Ocean Amazon experiment – GoAmazon 2014–2015 – explored the interactions between natural biogenic forest emissions from central Amazonia and urban air pollution from Manaus. Previous GoAmazon 2014–2015 studies showed that nitrogen oxide (NO x = NO + NO 2 ) and sulfur oxide (SO x ) emissions from Manaus strongly interact with biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), affecting secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. In previous studies, ground-based and aircraft measurements provided evidence of SOA formation and strong changes in aerosol composition and properties. Aerosol optical properties also evolve, and their impacts on the Amazonian ecosystem can be significant. As particles age, some processes, such as SOA production, black carbon (BC) deposition, particle growth and the BC lensing effect change the aerosol optical properties, affecting the solar radiation flux at the surface. This study analyzes data and models SOA formation using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model to assess the spatial variability in aerosol optical properties as the Manaus plumes interact with the natural atmosphere. The following aerosol optical properties are investigated: single scattering albedo (SSA), asymmetry parameter (g aer ), absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) and scattering Ångström exponent (SAE). These simulations were validated using ground-based measurements at three experimental sites, namely the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory – ATTO (T0a), downtown Manaus (T1), Tiwa Hotel (T2) and Manacapuru (T3), as well as the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Gulfstream 1 (G-1) aircraft flights. WRF-Chem simulations were performed over 7 d during March 2014. Results show a mean biogenic SOA (BSOA) mass enrichment of 512 % at the T1 site, 450 % in regions downwind of Manaus, such as the T3 site, and 850 % in areas north of the T3 site in simulations with anthropogenic emissions. The SOA formation is rather fast, with about 80 % of the SOA mass produced in 3–4 h. Comparing the plume from simulations with and without anthropogenic emissions, SSA shows a downwind reduction of approximately 10 %, 11 % and 6 % at the T1, T2 and T3 sites, respectively. Other regions, such as those further downwind of the T3 site, are also affected. The g aer values increased from 0.62 to 0.74 at the T1 site and from 0.67 to 0.72 at the T3 site when anthropogenic emissions are active. During the Manaus plume-aging process, a plume tracking analysis shows an increase in SSA from 0.91 close to Manaus to 0.98 160 km downwind of Manaus as a result of SOA production and BC deposition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating soybean yields from high-temporal-resolution multi-source data using deep learning

Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for ensuring food security and maintaining stable agricultural markets. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in leveraging high-temporal-resolution, multi-source data for effective crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. A notable challenge arises from the difficulty in capturing the intricate interactions between variables across different time steps within these high-temporal-resolution time series datasets. This complexity hinders the reliable extraction of yield information from voluminous and often noisy datasets, especially during periods of extreme weather events. Here, in this study, we propose an Attention and Graph Isomorphism Network-enhanced Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory network (AGB-LSTM) for estimating county-level soybean yield in the United States. This model integrates a diverse set of remote sensing data, including Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRv), Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), along with environmental covariates. The AGB-LSTM effectively leverages information related to crop yield from high-temporal-resolution time series data (5-days), achieving an accuracy of R²= 0.67 and rRMSE = 14.46%. This approach significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest (RF) (R²= 0.52, rRMSE = 17.36%) and Bi-LSTM (R²= 0.58, rRMSE = 16.17%). Sensitivity experiments with different time steps and ranges demonstrated that our model could accurately and stably predict yields 1 to 2 months before harvest. Moreover, data with a finer temporal resolution consistently improved prediction performance, resulting in an approximately 20% increase in and an approximately 20% decrease in rRMSE compared to using monthly composites. We also evaluated the robustness of the model under extreme climate events and observed strong performance (R²= 0.50, rRMSE = 21.32%). Finally, yield mapping for major soybean-producing regions in North America in 2023 revealed spatial patterns that closely matched USDA yield reports. Our findings suggest that the AGB-LSTM model is a promising and effective method for estimating yield and has notable potential for global crop yield forecasting.

Deep learning↗

AFM Special Issue Summary - Integrating Surface Flux with Boundary Layer Measurements

To help bridge science topics related to land-atmosphere interactions, we organized a virtual special issue in this journal (Agricultural and Forest Meteorology [AFM]) entitled, “Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Integrating Surface Flux with Boundary Layer Measurements.” The motivation for the special issue was driven by existing disciplinary barriers between research areas that all address land-atmosphere interactions. In particular, it addressed research silos between those who study features of the land surface, surface fluxes (including water, energy, and trace gases), atmospheric boundary layer growth and thermodynamics, and atmospheric composition and aerosols. The special issue sought to bring these communities together to integrate multiple observations across the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with the aim of 1) improving broader understanding of land-atmosphere interactions, feedbacks, and coupling, 2) fostering new collaborations between atmospheric and surface flux scientists, and 3) identifying new paths for integrative research. In this report we provide an overview and synthesis of the special issue.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analyzing the impact of design factors on solar module thermomechanical durability using interpretable machine learning techniques

Solar modules in utility-scale systems are expected to maintain decades of lifetime to rival conventional energy sources. However, cyclic thermomechanical loading often degrades their long-term performance, highlighting the importance of effective design to mitigate thermal expansion mismatches between module materials. Given the complex composition of solar modules, isolating the impact of individual components on overall durability remains a challenging task. In this work, we analyze a comprehensive data set that comprises bill-of-materials (BOM) and thermal cycling power loss from 251 distinct module designs to identify the predominant design factors and their impacts on the thermomechanical durability of modules. The methodology of our analysis combines machine learning modeling (random forest) and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) to correlate design factors with power loss and interpret the model’s decision-making. The interpretation reveals that silicon type (monocrystalline or polycrystalline), encapsulant thickness, busbar numbers, and wafer thickness predominantly influence the degradation. With lower power loss of around 0.6% on average in the SHAP analysis, monocrystalline cells present better durability than polycrystalline cells. This finding is further substantiated by statistical testing on our raw data set. The SHAP analysis also demonstrates that while thicker encapsulants lead to reduced power loss, further increasing their thickness over around 0.6 to 0.7 mm does not yield additional benefits, particularly for the front side one. In addition, other important BOM features such as the number of busbars are analyzed. This study provides a blueprint for utilizing explainable machine learning techniques in a complex material system and can potentially guide future research on optimizing the design of solar modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗