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At least 271 records · Page 15

Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections that Caused Particularly Large Geomagnetic Storms Using ENLIL Heliosphere Cone Model

In our previous paper we reported the results of modeling of 14 selected well -observed strong halo coronal mass ejection (CME) events using the WSA -ENLIL cone model combination. Cone model input parameters were obtained from white light coronagraph images of the CME events using the analytical method developed by Xie et al. This work verified that coronagraph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival time prediction. In contrast to Taktakishvili et al., where we started the analysis by looking for clear CME signatures in the data and then proceeded to model the interplanetary consequences at 1 AU, in the present paper we start by generating a list of observed geomagnetic storm events and then work our way back to remote solar observations and carry out the corresponding CME modeling. The approach used in this study is addressing space weather forecasting and operational needs. We analyzed 36 particularly strong geomagnetic storms, then tried to associate them with particular CMEs using SOHO/LASCO catalogue, and finally modeled these CMEs using WSA-ENLIL cone model. Recently, Pulkkinen et al. developed a novel method for automatic determination of cone model parameters. We employed both analytical and automatic methods to determine cone model input parameters. We examined the CME arrival times and magnitude of impact at 1 AU for both techniques. The results of the simulations are compared with the ACE satellite observations. This comparison demonstrated that WSA -ENLIL model combination with coronagraph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival times for this set of 'geoeffective" CME events as well.

Taktakishvili, A.↗

Solar Wind Charge Exchange During Geomagnetic Storms

On March 31st. 2001, a coronal mass ejection pushed the subsolar magnetopause to the vicinity of geosynchronous orbit at 6.6 RE. The NASA/GSFC Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMe) employed a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model to simulate the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction during the peak of this geomagnetic storm. Robertson et aL then modeled the expected 50ft X-ray emission due to solar wind charge exchange with geocoronal neutrals in the dayside cusp and magnetosheath. The locations of the bow shock, magnetopause and cusps were clearly evident in their simulations. Another geomagnetic storm took place on July 14, 2000 (Bastille Day). We again modeled X-ray emission due to solar wind charge exchange, but this time as observed from a moving spacecraft. This paper discusses the impact of spacecraft location on observed X-ray emission and the degree to which the locations of the bow shock and magnetopause can be detected in images.

Robertson, Ina P.↗

Near-Earth Solar Wind Flows and Related Geomagnetic Activity During more than Four Solar Cycles (1963-2011)

In past studies, we classified the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types based on inspection of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters in the OMNI database and additional data (e.g., geomagnetic indices, energetic particle, and cosmic ray observations). These flow types are: (1) High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun, (2) Slow, interstream solar wind, and (3) Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections at the Sun, including interplanetary coronal mass ejections and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions. The solar wind classification in these previous studies commenced with observations in 1972. In the present study, as well as updating this classification to the end of 2011, we have extended the classification back to 1963, the beginning of near-Earth solar wind observations, thereby encompassing the complete solar cycles 20 to 23 and the ascending phase of cycle 24. We discuss the cycle-to-cycle variations in near-Earth solar wind structures and l1e related geomagnetic activity over more than four solar cycles, updating some of the results of our earlier studies.

Richardson, Ian G.↗

On the Relationship Between Global Land-Ocean Temperature and Various Descriptors of Solar-Geomagnetic Activity and Climate

Examined are sunspot cycle- (SC-) length averages of the annual January-December values of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index ( ) in relation to SC-length averages of annual values of various descriptors of solar-geomagnetic activity and climate, incorporating lags of 0-5 yr. For the overall interval SC12-SC23, the is inferred to correlate best against the parameter incorporating lag = 5 yr, where the parameter refers to the resultant aa value having removed that portion of the annual aa average value due to the yearly variation of sunspot number (SSN). The inferred correlation between the and is statistically important at confidence level cl > 99.9%, having a coefficient of linear correlation r = 0.865 and standard error of estimate se = 0.149 degC. Excluding the most recent cycles SC22 and SC23, the inferred correlation is stronger, having r = 0.969 and se = 0.048 degC. With respect to the overall trend in the , which has been upwards towards warmer temperatures since SC12 (1878-1888), solar-geomagnetic activity parameters are now trending downwards (since SC19). For SC20-SC23, in contrast, comparison of the against SC-length averages of the annual value of the Mauna Loa carbon dioxide ( ) index is found to be highly statistically important (cl >> 99.9%), having r = 0.9994 and se = 0.012 degC for lag = 2 yr. On the basis of the inferred preferential linear correlation between the and , the current ongoing SC24 is inferred to have warmer than was seen in SC23 (i.e., >0.526 degC), probably in excess of 0.68 degC (relative to the 1951-1980 base period).

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Mid-Latitude Ionospheric Disturbances Due to Geomagnetic Storms at ISS Altitudes

Spacecraft charging of the International Space Station (ISS) is dominated by the interaction of the high voltage US solar arrays with the F2-region ionospheric plasma environment. We are working to fully understand the charging behavior of the ISS solar arrays and determine how well future charging behavior can be predicted from in-situ measurements of plasma density and temperature. One aspect of this work is a need to characterize the magnitude of electron density and temperature variations that may be encountered at ISS orbital altitudes (approximately 400 km), the latitudes over which they occur, and the time periods for which the disturbances persist. We will present preliminary results from a study of ionospheric disturbances in the "mid-latitude" region defined as the approximately 30 - 60 degree extra-equatorial magnetic latitudes sampled by ISS. The study is focused on geomagnetic storm periods because they are well known drivers for disturbances in the high-latitude and mid-latitude ionospheric plasma. Changes in the F2 peak electron density obtained from ground based ionosonde records are compared to in-situ electron density and temperature measurements from the CHAMP and ISS spacecraft at altitudes near, or above, the F2 peak. Results from a number of geomagnetic storms will be presented and their potential impact on ISS charging will be discussed.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

AE Geomagnetic Index Predictability for High Speed Solar Wind Streams: A Wavelet Decomposition Technique

High speed solar wind streams cause geomagnetic activity at Earth. In this study we have applied a wavelet interactive filtering and reconstruction technique on the solar wind magnetic field components and AE index series to allowed us to investigate the relationship between the two. The IMF Bz component was found as the most significant solar wind parameter responsible by the control of the AE activity. Assuming magnetic reconnection associated to southward directed Bz is the main mechanism transferring energy into the magnetosphere, we adjust parameters to forecast the AE index. The adjusted routine is able to forecast AE, based only on the Bz measured at the L1 Lagrangian point. This gives a prediction approximately 30-70 minutes in advance of the actual geomagnetic activity. The correlation coefficient between the observed AE data and the forecasted series reached values higher than 0.90. In some cases the forecast reproduced particularities observed in the signal very well.The high correlation values observed and the high efficacy of the forecasting can be taken as a confirmation that reconnection is the main physical mechanism responsible for the energy transfer during HILDCAAs. The study also shows that the IMF Bz component low frequencies are most important for AE prediction.

Space weather↗

A Combined Solar and Geomagnetic Index for Thermospheric Climate

Infrared radiation from nitric oxide (NO) at 5.3 Â is a primary mechanism by which the thermosphere cools to space. The SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite has been measuring thermospheric cooling by NO for over 13 years. Physically, changes in NO emission are due to changes in temperature, atomic oxygen, and the NO density. These physical changes however are driven by changes in solar irradiance and changes in geomagnetic conditions. We show that the SABER time series of globally integrated infrared power (Watts) radiated by NO can be replicated accurately by a multiple linear regression fit using the F10.7, Ap, and Dst indices. This fit enables several fundamental properties of NO cooling to be determined as well as their variability with time, permitting reconstruction of the NO power time series back nearly 70 years with extant databases of these indices. The relative roles of solar ultraviolet and geomagnetic processes in determining the NO cooling are derived and shown to be solar cycle dependent. This reconstruction provides a long-term time series of an integral radiative constraint on thermospheric climate that can be used to test climate models.

Hunt, Linda↗

Geomagnetically Induced Currents Around the World During the 17 March 2015 Storm

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) represent a significant space weather issue for power grid and pipeline infrastructure, particularly during severe geomagnetic storms. In this study, magnetometer data collected from around the world are analyzed to investigate the GICs caused by the 2015 St. Patricks Day storm. While significant GIC activity in the high-latitude regions due to storm time substorm activity is shown for this event, enhanced GIC activity was also measured at two equatorial stations in the American and Southeast Asian sectors. This equatorial GIC activity is closely examined, and it is shown that it is present both during the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the storm sudden commencement (SSC) in Southeast Asia and during the main phase of the storm approximately 10 h later in South America. The SSC caused magnetic field variations at the equator in Southeast Asia that were twice the magnitude of those observed only a few degrees to the north, strongly indicating that the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) played a significant role. The large equatorial magnetic field variations measured in South America are also examined, and the coincident solar wind data are used to investigate the causes of the sudden changes in the EEJ approximately 10 h into the storm. From this analysis it is concluded that sudden magnetopause current increases due to increases in the solarwind dynamic pressure, and the sudden changes in the resultant magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems, are the primary drivers of equatorial GICs.

Carter, B. A.↗

Geomagnetically Induced Currents Caused by Interplanetary Shocks with Different Impact Angles and Speeds

The occurrence of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) poses serious threats to modern technological infrastructure. Large GICs result from sharp variations of the geomagnetic field (dB∕dt) caused by changes of large-scale magnetospheric and ionospheric currents. Intense dB∕dt perturbations are known to occur often in high-latitude regions as a result of storm time substorms. Magnetospheric compressions usually caused by interplanetary shocks increase the magnetopause current leading to dB∕dt perturbations more evident in midlatitude to low-latitude regions, while they increase the equatorial electrojet current leading to dB∕dt perturbations in dayside equatorial regions. We investigate the effects of shock impact angles and speeds on the subsequent dB∕dt perturbations with a database of 547 shocks observed at the L1 point. By adopting the threshold of dB∕dt = 100 nT/min, identified as a risk factor to power systems, we find that dB∕dt generally surpasses this threshold when following impacts of high-speed and nearly frontal shocks in dayside high-latitude locations. The same trend occurs at lower latitudes and for all nightside events but with fewer high-risk events. Particularly, we found nine events in equatorial locations with dB∕dt > 100 nT/min. All events were caused by high-speed and nearly frontal shock impacts and were observed by stations located around noon local time. These high-risk perturbations were caused by sudden strong and symmetric magnetospheric compressions, more effectively intensifying the equatorial electrojet current, leading to sharp dB∕dt perturbations. We suggest that these results may provide insights for GIC forecasting aiming at preventing degradation of power systems due to GICs.

Oliveira, D. M.↗

Thermospheric Heating and Cooling Times During Geomagnetic Storms, Including Extreme Events

We present the first quantitative calculations of thermospheric heating and cooling times for geomagnetic storms of different intensity, including extreme events. We utilize the neutral mass density database of the CHAllenging Mini‐satellite Payload and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment missions to produce thermospheric global system response to geomagnetic storms caused by coronal mass ejections via superposed epoch analysis during May 2001 to December 2015. Storm events are grouped in five different categories based on the minimum value of the SYM‐H index. We calculate the time from storm onset for the thermosphere to reach maximum intensification (heating time) and the time from onset for the thermosphere to recover (cooling time). We find that heating and cooling times decrease as storm intensity increases and the effect is more pronounced for the cooling times. For extreme storms, the thermospheric heating time is 9.5 hr, while the cooling time is 22 hr.

Zesta, Eftyhia↗

Electron Energy Interplay in the Geomagnetic Trap Below the Auroral Acceleration Region

This publication addresses the collisional superthermal electron dynamics below the auroral acceleration region (AAR). This region is the portion of an auroral field line with a field-aligned electric field that leads to the formation of precipitating monoenergetic keV electron fluxes that produce the discrete auroral displays observable from the ground. It is assumed that these precipitating electron fluxes are monoenergetic and accelerated through a potential drop, V, such that these electrons are peaked at an energy E0 = eV, where e is the electron charge. Monoenergetic electrons precipitating into the upper atmosphere degrade to lower energies via many different collisional processes and produce the secondary electron population with energies of 10–100s eV which escapes back to magnetospheric altitudes and becomes geomagnetically trapped between the AAR and the upper ionosphere. The secondary electrons in this geomagnetic trap transfer energy via elastic Coulomb collisions to the thermal electrons. That energy is then returned to the topside ionosphere as heat flux carried by the electron thermal conduction which is essential to maintaining the topside electron temperature.

George V Khazanov↗

A Century of Tidal Variability in the North Pacific Extracted from Hourly Geomagnetic Observatory Measurements at Honolulu

Previous analyses of hourly tide-gauge data taken at Honolulu since 1905 have shown that both sea level and the amplitude of the tides have increased synchronously over time, and a process has been proposed whereby the common cause is an increase in ocean temperature. Validation with independent data of this change in tides, as well as the proposed cause, has been lacking Ocean tides also generate magnetic fields that reach far outside the ocean, and tidal signals are clearly seen in the hourly data since 1905 from the Honolulu geomagnetic observatory. Here, it is found that the tidal amplitudes have increased synchronously in the tide-gauge and magnetic records, providing independent support for the previous results. Further information about the changing ocean is likely contained in the historical data from geomagnetic observatories as well as the global coverage of modern satellite magnetic surveys.

Robert H Tyler↗

Thermal Electron Heat Fluxes Associated with Precipitated Auroral Electrons During the Saint Patrick's Days 2013 and 2015 Geomagnetic Storms

The Rice Convection Model-Equilibrium (RCM-E) and SuperThermal Electron Transport (STET) are combined to investigate electron heat flux formation in the region of the diffuse aurora for the geomagnetic storms of 17 March 2013 and 17 March 2015. The primary electron precipitation into the atmosphere resulting from wave particle scattering in the magnetosphere are simulated by the magnetically and electrically RCM-E during these two geomagnetic storms. The primary precipitating electron fluxes are modified by the STET model by taking into account atmospheric backscatter processes. The modified electron energy fluxes and their mean energies are coupled to the STET code to calculate electron thermal fluxes associated with diffuse aurora on a global scale. We use the simulated heat flux to estimate electron temperatures at the upper ionospheric altitudes and compare them with corresponding observations from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellite.

George V. Khazanov↗

Observations of Solar Wind-Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling and Its Impact on Equatorial Ionospheric Electrodynamics During the March and April 2023 Geomagnetic Storms

The low-latitude ionosphere is effectively shielded from the high latitude convection electric field during geomagnetic quiet times because region-2 field-aligned currents associated with the partial ring current act to oppose the convection electric field associated with region-1 field-aligned currents. However, the low-latitude ionosphere can be directly coupled to the enhanced magnetospheric electric field through prompt penetration of convection electric field during periods of strong solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. The mechanisms that lead to the generation of prompt penetration electric field during enhanced solar wind-magnetosphereionosphere coupling are complex and not fully understood. We study the evolution of field-aligned currents and the equatorial electrojet during the March and April 2023 geomagnetic storm to understand the processes involving solar wind disturbances interacting with the magnetosphere and coupling into the polar ionosphere, and how the low-latitude ionosphere responded to the enhanced magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. We will present the observations in the solar windmagnetosphere-ionosphere system, in particular, field-aligned currents at high latitude ionosphere by Swarm and the equatorial electrojet by Swarm and ground-based magnetometers.

Guan Le↗

Global Magnetic Reconnection with Weakly Shocked Solar Wind During Geomagnetic Storms

The solar wind and magnetic field emanating from the sun typically reaches Earth moving at a super-Alfvénic velocity (multiple times the local Alfvén wave speed). This leads to the formation of a bow shock upstream of the planet where the plasma is slowed and heated and the interplanetary magnetic field is compressed before it interacts with Earth's magnetic field. However, a number of recent geomagnetic storm events have been associated with sustained intervals of nearly or indeed fully sub-Alfvénic flows. A weakly- or un-shocked magnetosheath changes the conditions for magnetic reconnection at the magnetopause and subsequently the storm-time evolution of the magnetosphere. We perform Multiscale Atmosphere-Geospace Environment (MAGE) simulations of three different geomagnetic storms each containing a period of nearly or fully sub-Alfvénic solar wind driving and examine the properties of global reconnection. The structure of the night-side magnetosphere and polar cusps are also examined. The dynamical evolution of the global magnetosphere during strong driving represents a key science target for the NASA Heliophysics System Observatory, particularly Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) targeting magnetotail/magnetopause reconnection and Tandem Reconnection and Cusp Electrodynamics Reconnaissance Satellites (TRACERS) observing ion dispersion in the cusps.

Brandon Burkholder↗

Geomagnetically Induced Current Field Test on Large Grid-Connected Power Transformers: Analysis, Model Development, and Simulations

Geomagnetic-induced current (GIC) flow in power grids can cause undesirable effects such as transformer overheating, harmonics, higher reactive power demand, etc. Many simulation models have been developed to study these effects, but real-world verification on modern transformer designs is rare. Here, this paper presents the first long-duration GIC field test in the U.S. performed on high-voltage, grid-connected transformers featuring winding clamps and tie rods instead of conventional tie bars. Field measurements were taken to evaluate GIC effects. These measurements also aided in developing and validating thermal and electromagnetic transient (EMT) models of the transformers. During the test, significant current and voltage distortions were observed along with considerable transformer reactive power losses. Analysis of the field measurements showed that the transformers’ hottest spot was at the inner windings, and their k-factors were close to factory test and software default values. Thermal simulations indicated that the transformers would not violate their thermal limits even for a GIC waveform that peaks at about 200 A/phase. EMT simulations revealed that increased transformer loading may reduce GIC-induced reactive power demand and harmonics in certain scenarios. The study also highlighted potential inaccuracies in using the k-factor method to calculate transformer reactive power losses.

EMTDC↗

Computational Analysis and Optimized Modeling of Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Power Transformers

In this project we aim to better understand the effect of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) on power transformers. Expanding upon our previous work focused on producing a methodology for accuracy-enhanced computation of GIC signatures (i.e., time-domain current magnitude variation for the event duration) from a combination of physics-based and data-driven computational tools, we propose the use of these GIC signatures as inputs for a physically-detailed and optimized model of the power transformer to investigate how GIC determination and transformer modeling influence the evaluation of GIC effects on the transformer operation, as well as in its interaction with the power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗