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NASA NTRS2012

The GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model: Mean Climate and Development from MERRA to Fortuna

This report is a documentation of the Fortuna version of the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). The GEOS-5 AGCM is currently in use in the NASA Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) for simulations at a wide range of resolutions, in atmosphere only, coupled ocean-atmosphere, and data assimilation modes. The focus here is on the development subsequent to the version that was used as part of NASA s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). We present here the results of a series of 30-year atmosphere-only simulations at different resolutions, with focus on the behavior of the 1-degree resolution simulation. The details of the changes in parameterizations subsequent to the MERRA model version are outlined, and results of a series of 30-year, atmosphere-only climate simulations at 2-degree resolution are shown to demonstrate changes in simulated climate associated with specific changes in parameterizations. The GEOS-5 AGCM presented here is the model used for the GMAO s atmosphere-only and coupled CMIP-5 simulations.

Molod, Andrea↗
NASA NTRS2011

Simultaneous Multi-Filter Optical Photometry of GEO Debris

Information on the physical characteristics of unresolved pieces of debris comes from an object's brightness, and how it changes with time and wavelength. True colors of tumbling, irregularly shaped objects can be accurately determined only if the intensity at all wavelengths is measured at the same time. In this paper we report on simultaneous photometric observations of objects at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) using two telescopes at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO). The CTIO/SMARTS 0.9-m observes in a Johnson B filter, while the 0.6-m MODEST (Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope) observes in a Cousins R filter. The two CCD cameras are electronically synchronized so that the exposure start time and duration are the same for both telescopes. Thus we obtain the brightness as a function of time in two passbands simultaneously, and can determine the true color of the object at any time. We will report here on such calibrated measurements made on a sample of GEO objects and what is the distribution of the observed B-R colors. In addition, using this data set, we will show what colors would be observed if the observations in different filters were obtained sequentially, as would be the case for conventional imaging observations with a single detector on a single telescope. Finally, we will compare our calibrated colors of GEO debris with colors determined in the laboratory of selected materials actually used in spacecraft construction.

Seitzer, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2013

Impact of Radiatively Interactive Dust Aerosols in the NASA GEOS-5 Climate Model: Sensitivity to Dust Particle Shape and Refractive Index

We investigate the radiative effects of dust aerosols in the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model. GEOS-5 is improved with the inclusion of a sectional aerosol and cloud microphysics module, the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA). Into CARMA we introduce treatment of the dust and sea salt aerosol lifecycle, including sources, transport evolution, and sinks. The aerosols are radiatively coupled to GEOS-5, and we perform a series of multi-decade AMIP-style simulations in which dust optical properties (spectral refractive index and particle shape distribution) are varied. Optical properties assuming spherical dust particles are from Mie theory, while those for non-spherical shape distributions are drawn from a recently available database for tri-axial ellipsoids. The climatologies of the various simulations generally compare well to data from the MODIS, MISR, and CALIOP space-based sensors, the ground-based AERONET, and surface measurements of dust deposition and concentration. Focusing on the summertime Saharan dust cycle we show significant variability in our simulations resulting from different choices of dust optical properties. Atmospheric heating due to dust enhances surface winds over important Saharan dust sources, and we find a positive feedback where increased dust absorption leads to increased dust emissions. We further find that increased dust absorption leads to a strengthening of the summertime Hadley cell circulation, increasing dust lofting to higher altitudes and strengthening the African Easterly Jet. This leads to a longer atmospheric residence time, higher altitude, and generally more northward transport of dust in simulations with the most absorbing dust optical properties. We find that particle shape, although important for radiance simulations, is a minor effect compared to choices of refractive index, although total atmospheric forcing is enhanced by greater than 10 percent for simulations incorporating a spheroidal shape distribution versus ellipsoidal or spherical shapes.

radiative forcing↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of GEOS-5 Sulfur Dioxide Simulations During the Frostburg, MD 2010 Field Campaign.

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a major atmospheric pollutant with a strong anthropogenic component mostly produced by the combustion of fossil fuel and other industrial activities. As a precursor of sulfate aerosols that affect climate, air quality, and human health, this gas needs to be monitored on a global scale. Global climate and chemistry models including aerosol processes along with their radiative effects are important tools for climate and air quality research. Validation of these models against in-situ and satellite measurements is essential to ascertain the credibility of these models and to guide model improvements. In this study the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) module running on-line inside the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model is used to simulate aerosol and SO2 concentrations. Data taken in November 2010 over Frostburg, Maryland during an SO2 field campaign involving ground instrumentation and aircraft are used to evaluate GEOS-5 simulated SO2 concentrations. Preliminary data analysis indicated the model overestimated surface SO2 concentration, which motivated the examination of mixing processes in the model and the specification of SO2 anthropogenic emission rates. As a result of this analysis, a revision of anthropogenic emission inventories in GEOS-5 was implemented, and the vertical placement of SO2 sources was updated. Results show that these revisions improve the model agreement with observations locally and in regions outside the area of this field campaign. In particular, we use the ground-based measurements collected by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) for the year 2010 to evaluate the revised model simulations over North America.

Air Quality Campaign↗
NASA NTRS2016

Comparative Analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB3GEO Tools for the Forecast of the Fluxes of High-Energy Electrons at GEO

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field B(sub z) observations at L1. The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast.

Balikhin, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Cloud and Sun-Glint Statistics Derived from GOES and MODIS Observations Over the Intra-Americas Sea for GEO-CAPE Mission Planning

Knowledge of cloud cover, frequency, and duration is not only important to study cloud dynamics, but also critical in determining when and where to take ocean measurements from geostationary orbits such as the Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission due to the challenges in achieving complete hemispheric coverage of coastal oceans, estuaries, and inland waters at hourly frequency. Using GOES hourly measurements at 4 km nadir resolution between 2006 and 2011, the number of cloud-free hourly observations per day (N(sub cf)) for solar zenith angle Theta(sub 0) less than 80 degrees was estimated for each 0.1 degree location of the Intra-Americas Sea. The number of Sun-glint-affected hourly observations per day [Ns(sub sg)] was also calculated based on the planned GEO-CAPE observation geometry and realistic wind speed. High-latitude and equatorial oceans showed the lowest N(sub cf) (less than 2.4) in all climatological months, and highest N(sub cf) was observed in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and Caribbean (greater than 4.5). Different regions showed differences in seasonality of cloud-free conditions and also showed differences in the hour of a day at which the satellite observations would have the maximal cloud-free and glint-free probability (Temperature maximum). Cloud cover from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 1 km measurements are greater than 10 degrees higher than those from the MODIS 250 m measurements, supporting ocean color missions at subkilometer resolutions to enhance both spatial coverage and temporal frequency. These findings provide valuable information for GEO-CAPE mission planning to maximize its science value through minimizing the impacts of clouds and Sun glint.

Feng, Lian↗
NASA NTRS2018

Prediction and Predictability of the Madden Julian Oscillation in the NASA GEOS-5 Seasonal-to-Subseasonal System

In this study, we examine the prediction skill and predictability of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in a recent version of the NASA GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean coupled model run at at 1/2 degree horizontal resolution. The results are based on a suite of hindcasts produced as part of the NOAA SubX project, consisting of seven ensemble members initialized every 5 days for the period 1999-2015. The atmospheric initial conditions were taken from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and the ocean and the sea ice were taken from a GMAO ocean analysis. The land states were initialized from the MERRA-2 land output, which is based on observation-corrected precipitation fields. We investigated the MJO prediction skill in terms of the bivariate correlation coefficient for the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices. The correlation coefficient stays at or above 0.5 out to forecast lead times of 26-36 days, with a pronounced increase in skill for forecasts initialized from phase 3, when the MJO convective anomaly is located in the central tropical Indian Ocean. A corresponding estimate of the upper limit of the predictability is calculated by considering a single ensemble member as the truth and verifying the ensemble mean of the remaining members against that. The predictability estimates fall between 35-37 days (taken as forecast lead when the correlation reaches 0.5) and are rather insensitive to the initial MJO phase. The model shows slightly higher skill when the initial conditions contain strong MJO events compared to weak events, although the difference in skill is evident only from lead 1 to 20. Similar to other models, the RMM-index-based skill arises mostly from the circulation components of the index. The skill of the convective component of the index drops to 0.5 by day 20 as opposed to day 30 for circulation fields. The propagation of the MJO anomalies over the Maritime Continent does not appear problematic in the GEOS-5 hindcasts implying that the Maritime Continent predictability barrier may not be a major concern in this model. Finally, the MJO prediction skill in this version of GEOS-5 is superior to that of the current seasonal prediction system at the GMAO; this could be partly attributed to a slightly better representation of the MJO in the free running version of this model and partly to the improved atmospheric initialization from MERRA-2.

Achuthavarier, Deepthi↗
NASA NTRS2017

Assessment of State-of-the-Art Dust Emission Scheme in GEOS

The GEOS modeling system has been extended with state of the art parameterization of dust emissions based on the vertical flux formulation described in Kok et al 2014. The new dust scheme was coupled with the GOCART and MAM aerosol models. In the present study we compare dust emissions, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and radiative fluxes from GEOS experiments with the standard and new dust emissions. AOD from the model experiments are also compared with AERONET and satellite based data. Based on this comparative analysis we concluded that the new parameterization improves the GEOS capability to model dust aerosols originating from African sources, however it lead to overestimation of dust emissions from Asian and Arabian sources. Further regional tuning of key parameters controlling the threshold friction velocity may be required in order to achieve more definitive and uniform improvement in the dust modeling skill.

Darmenov, Anton↗
NASA NTRS2018

Prediction Skill of the MJO Teleconnection Signals in the NASA GEOS Subseasonal Reforecasts

Tropical-extratropical teleconnections are considered key to advancing subseasonal prediction. The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO), characterized by large scale convective envelopes propagating along the tropical Indo-Pacific sector, is known to modulate midlatitude circulation and associated weather patterns. Although there is a general consensus on the MJO's influence on the midlatitude circulation, which is thought to be due to modulations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific North America (PNA) pattern, relatively less is known about the predictability of these teleconnection signals in dynamical forecast models. The composite evolution of the midlatitude circulation anomalies and associated wave train structure as the delayed response to tropical heating are reported in many studies that have examined reanalyses and long model simulations. However, it is yet to be determined whether they lend any beneficial subseasonal forecast skill, especially to weekly mean surface temperature and precipitation over North America. Investigating useful predictable signals from the MJO teleconnections is also complicated by the fact that the MJO is a moving heat source with an approximate periodicity of 30-60 days, and that the structure and amplitude of the midlatitude response can be sensitive to the longitudinal positioning of the heating anomaly as well as the propagation speed of the MJO. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of MJO teleconnections on forecast accuracy at 2-3 week lead over North America, with an emphasis on the above-mentioned lesser known aspects of these teleconnections. To this end, we utilize a suite of subseasonal reforecasts performed with the latest NASA GEOS-5 seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) system. These reforecasts were performed as part of the NOAA SubX project, wherein the NASA GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean coupled model was run at degree horizontal resolution, initialized every 5 days for the period 1999-2016. The GEOS-5 model shows skillful predictions of the MJO, with the correlation coefficient based on the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index staying at or above 0.5 up to forecast lead 26-36 days. The system is thus a useful tool for investigating MJO teleconnection processes.

Achuthavarier, Deepthi↗
NASA NTRS2018

Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

We provide an introduction to a new high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition forecast produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). Previously, this combination of detailed chemistry and resolution was only provided by regional models. This system combines the operational GEOS-5 weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 11) to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

Knowland, K. Emma↗
NASA NTRS2018

Assimilating GCOM-W AMSR2 Radiance Data in Future GEOS Reanalysis

Surface and atmospheric radiation are being measured by space-borne conical scanning microwave radiometers with high accuracy and spatial resolution since 1980s'. These radiometers include Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) onboard various NOAA's polar-orbiting satellites, Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) onboard Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) onboard NASA and JAXA's satellites. Atmospheric temperature, humidity, clouds, and precipitation are retrieved using brightness temperature data at frequencies between 22 GHz – 183 GHz. Some of the brightness temperature and retrieved rain rate data made by these imagers are assimilated in NASA Global Modelling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)'s weather and climate data sets including the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and its version 2 (MERRA-2) data sets. However, those radiance data are assimilated with the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) only in clear-sky conditions. Recently, we started assimilate GPM/GMI radiance data with GEOS-5's atmospheric data assimilation system GSI under all-sky conditions in order to have better constraints in analyzed hydrological properties. GMAO plans to assimilate more microwave radiometers' brightness temperature data in its analyses. In this talk, we will discuss TMI and AMSR2 data's impact in temperature, humidity, clouds and precipitation under all-sky conditions in future GEOS reanalysis.

Jin, Jianjun↗
NASA NTRS2018

Implementation of the University of Miami Wave Model (UMWM) into the NASA/GMAO Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS)

Wind generated waves are integral element in air-sea interactions and affect exchange of momentum, heat, water, gases and production of marine aerosol. Motivated by the need to resolve the air-sea interface we have implemented the University of Miami Wave model (UMWM) into the NASA/GMAO Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS). The implementation of the wave model in GEOS aimed to facilitate coupling with the atmosphere and ocean model components with minimal changes to the existing system, while at the same time ensure correctness of the predicted wave energy spectrum and wave diagnostics. Here we describe the implementation of the GEOS/UMWM system and show results from model experiments and verifications. This work is a step toward development of a coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean GEOS system.

Darmenov, Anton↗
NASA NTRS2019

NASA GEOS Aerosol Modeling and Assimilation Activities

The current assimilation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) in GEOS involves very careful cloud screening and homogenization of the observing system by means of a neural network that translates satellite reflectances from MODIS into AERONET calibrated AOD. In this talk we will present an update of the GEOS aerosol assimilation system, with emphasis on the improved treatment of MODIS observations. We will then proceed to assess the impact of geostationary aerosol observations from the ABI and AHI sensors on the GOES-16 and Himawari-8 satellites. The GEOS assimilated aerosol fields will be validated by comparison to independent in-situ and remotely-sensed measurements (PM2.5 concentrations, surface dust concentrations, Maritime Aerosol Network, airborne and ground based lidars, UV based measurements, etc.).

Castellanos, Patricia↗
NASA NTRS2019

Developing Data Assimilated 4D Global Precipitation Products from the GEOS system in Support of the GPM Mission

This presentation is to report on the progresses made for the NASA Precipitation Measurement Mission (PMM) science team research tasks that are recently funded by NASA HQ. These tasks include (1) extending the existing GEOS all-sky analysis system to assimilate radiance data from other microwave sensors in GPM constellation satellites, (2) producing improved GEOS analyses of precipitation and downscaling of satellite precipitation estimates, and (3) providing the GEOS analyses to PMM Science team as prototype of GPM Level-4 products.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗
NASA NTRS2020

Assimilating GCOM-W1 AMSR2 and TRMM TMI Radiance Data in GEOS Analysis and Reanalysis

The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) observed the Earth in lower latitudes between 1997 - 2015. Its conical-scan radiometer has nine channels and measured microwave radiances between 10 and 89 GHz. These data provide information on atmospheric temperature, humidity, clouds, precipitation, as well as sea surface temperature. Radiance data from other microwave radiometers such as Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) onboard various Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites are assimilated in clear-sky conditions in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and its version 2 (MERRA-2) data sets at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The GMAO's Hybrid 4D-EnVar-based Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) is enhanced with an all-sky microwave radiance data assimilation capability in the real-time GEOS-Forward Processing (FP) system. Currently, the FP system assimilates Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) microwave imager (GMI) radiance data utilizing this all-sky capability, and is being extended to use more all-sky data from other microwave radiometers. In this presentation, we will focus on impacts of all-sky TMI radiance data on GEOS analyses of atmospheric moisture, precipitation and other fields, and discuss their applications for future GEOS reanalyses.

Jin, Jianjun↗
NASA NTRS2019

Impacts of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on ENSO in the GEOS seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting system

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 introduced a perturbation of the Earth's global energy budget by increasing the stratospheric aerosol loading by an order of magnitude, with effects on the global climate. In this presentation we analyze the effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the seasonal forecast performed with Goddard Earth Observing System Seasonal-to Subseasonal (GEOS-S2S) system, an Earth System Model that includes an interactive ocean and a bulk aerosol model coupled to radiation. We performed 10-member ensembles for the year after the eruption (June 1991-May 1992) at ~0.5 horizontal resolution, with and without the inclusion of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. In GEOS-S2S, the eruption leads to ta strengthening of El Nino peaking in January 1992. The strengthening is mainly due to the weakening of the trade winds, which is caused by a attening of the temperature gradient across the Pacic due to a differential response to the volcanic forcing between the central and eastern Pacic (ocean-dynamical thermostat). This response largely depends on the assumed size for the volcanic aerosols. Indeed, we performed simulations assuming a volcanic aerosol effective radius of 0.35 m (similar to tropospheric aerosol, and the default in GEOS) and 0.6 m (closer to observations of volcanic aerosol from Pinatubo-sized eruptions). We nd that in the latter case the tropical radiative forcing is lower, since smaller aerosols scatter shortwave radiation more eciently than larger ones. Accordingly, the impact on ENSO is not statistically signicant when a larger and more realistic particle radius is assumed.

Aquila, Valentina↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sub/seasonal forecasts with a coupled interactive aerosol model in GEOS-S2S

The NASA/Goddard Subseasonal to Seasonal (GEOS-S2S) prediction model includes an interactive aerosol model that allows for prediction of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and PM2.5, as well as improved meteorological forecasts under certain conditions. A model intercomparison of the impact of interactive aerosol is under way, and results from retrospective forecasts with and without interactive aerosol were performed using GEOS-S2S as part of this intercomparison. Results from the GEOS-S2S system will be shown, demonstrating useful skill in AOD and PM2.5 and an example of the impact on a "forecast of opportunity". These results will serve as motivation for the participation of CESM in this interactive aerosol model intercomparison.

S2S↗
NASA NTRS2021

Impacts of the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo on Surface Temperatures and Precipitation Forecasts With the NASA GEOS Subseasonal-to-Seasonal System

A contemporary seasonal forecasting system is used to study the impacts of a volcanic sulfate injection into the stratosphere on the seasonal forecasts for surface temperatures, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and precipitation. The focus is a case study of the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines and the period from July 1991 to February 1992. Version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system is used in this study. GEOS-S2S includes the GOddard Chemistry, Aerosols, Radiation and Transport (GOCART) aerosol module, which allows to prognostically simulate aerosol distributions. GOCART is coupled to the radiation and cloud modules to include the impact of the eruption on forecasted radiation and precipitation. The coupled GEOS-S2S system was initialized in May 1991 with fields based on observations to produce ten-member 9-month forecasts with and without the volcanic sulfur injection. The results of these ensemble experiments demonstrate that including Mt. Pinatubo in seasonal forecasts would improve the forecasts of the 1991–1992 global mean temperature and precipitation but worsen the forecast of ENSO by strengthening of El Niño beyond what showed in observations. Most significant changes in the forecasts of temperatures and precipitation are limited to the tropics. The only land area where the inclusion of Pinatubo significantly lowered the forecasted precipitation is tropical Africa.

Mt. Pinatubo↗