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At least 271 records · Page 15

Measurement and Analysis of the Microphysical Properties of Arctic Precipitation Showing Frequent Occurrence of Riming

Detailed ground-based observations of snow are scarce in remote regions, such as the Arctic. Here, Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera measurements of over 55,000 solid hydrometeors—obtained during a two-year period from August 2016 to August 2018 at Oliktok Point, Alaska—are analyzed and compared to similar measurements from an earlier experiment at Alta, Utah. In general, distributions of hydrometeor fall speed, fall orientation, aspect ratio, flatness, and complexity (i.e., riming degree) were observed to be very similar between the two locations, except that Arctic hydrometeors tended to be smaller. In total, the slope parameter defining a negative exponential of the size distribution was approximately 50% steeper in the Arctic as at Alta. Sixty-six percent of particles were observed to be rimed or moderately rimed with some suggestion that riming is favored by weak boundary layer stability. On average, the fall speed of rimed particles was not notably different from aggregates. However, graupel density and fall speed increase as cloud temperatures approach the melting point.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the WFIP2 updates to the HRRR model using scanning Doppler lidar measurements in the complex terrain of the Columbia River Basin

The wind-energy (WE) industry relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models as foundational or base models for many purposes, including wind-resource assessment and wind-power forecasting. During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) in the Columbia River Basin of Oregon and Washington, a significant effort was made to improve NWP forecasts through focused model development, to include experimental refinements to the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model physics and horizontal grid spacing. In this study, the performance of an experimental version of HRRR that includes these refinements is tested against a control version, which corresponds to that of the operational HRRR run by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Protection at the outset of WFIP2. Furthermore, the effects of horizontal grid resolution were also tested by comparing wind forecasts from the HRRR (with 3-km grid spacing) with those from a finer-resolution HRRR nest with 750-m grid spacing. Model forecasts are validated against accurate wind-profile measurements by three scanning, pulsed Doppler lidars at sites separated by a total distance of 71 km. Model skill and improvements in model skill, attributable to physics refinements and improved horizontal grid resolution, varied by season, by site, and during periods of atmospheric phenomena relevant to WE. In general, model errors were the largest below 150 m above ground level (AGL). Experimental HRRR refinements tended to reduce the mean absolute error (MAE) and other error metrics for many conditions, but degradation in skill (increased MAE) was noted below 150 m AGL at the two lowest-elevation sites at night. Finer resolution was found to produce the most significant reductions in the error metrics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Continental rift evolution and drainage reorganization along the Dead Sea rift since the Miocene

The Dead Sea fault is a section of the Arabian-African plate boundary. Widespread field relations indicate that three major drainage systems (stages) occupied the landscape west of the Dead Sea fault since its initiation at ca. 20 Ma. Specifically, (1) an early to middle Miocene drainage system, only minorly reconfigured by the fault (all sediments of this system belong to the Hazeva Formation); (2) a late Miocene to early Pleistocene fault-parallel drainage system named Paran-Neqarot (all sediments of this system belong to the Arava and Zehiha Formations; and (3) the early Pleistocene to present drainage configuration. The temporal and spatial frameworks of drainage stage 1 are generally constrained by radiometric dating of interfingering volcanic units, and the onset and temporal and spatial frameworks of drainage stage 3 are well constrained by cosmogenic 10 Be surface exposure ages. The timing and longevity of the rift-parallel drainage (stage 2) have until now been evasive to direct dating. The overall time gap between stages 1 and 3 is ~12–13 million years. Thus, an early age (within this time gap) of stage 2 would imply an immediate response of drainage reorganization to rift tectonics, while a later age of this drainage system would imply a delayed response. We present 11 10 Be- 26 Al cosmogenic burial ages of alluvial and colluvial units related to the fault-parallel drainage system (stage 2), which collectively constrain the time of deposition of the Arava Formation sediments in the central Negev to ca. 8 Ma. The general lack of stratigraphic order, together with the large dispersion of ages both across and within the sampling sites, attests to significant recycling of sediments from drainage stage 1 into the Arava Formation deposits. The termination of Arava and Zehiha Formation sediment deposition at ca. 1.8 Ma was determined previously using cosmogenic exposure ages of desert pavements that cover the formations. Combining the previously published data with our new data, we established the longevity and character of the Paran-Neqarot drainage system. In conlcusion, this framework highlights the temporal aspect of drainage system build-up and collapse as it responded to transform and extensional plate boundary tectonics during the Neogene.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessment of the hydromechanical higher-order MPM for the simulation of geotechnical problems

The Material Point Method (MPM) has been increasingly used to simulate large strain deformations. Linear interpolation functions are commonly used to perform the spatial integration. It is well-known that the discontinuities in the interpolation function derivatives induce shock-like artifacts known as ‘cell-crossing’ error. These errors compound with volumetric locking errors when used with hydromechanical formulations for porous media, where different velocity fields are used for each phase. The capabilities of higher-order MPM frameworks have not been explored for real-scale geotechnical problems. As such, this paper aims to assess, validate, and further discuss a higher-order B-spline MPM (BS-MPM) framework. First, the BS-MPM framework is verified against the large-strain oedometer consolidation problem. Second, the framework is validated against a real-scale slope failure experiment triggered by pore water pressure recharge. Landslide features that are captured using the higher-order framework are specifically highlighted, and results (e.g., pore water pressure and deformation) are validated with field measurements. A generally convergent numerical solution is observed when using cubic interpolation functions. Third, a footing penetration problem is simulated using the multi-patch BS-MPM. Trends are examined with respect to penetration velocity and variation in hydraulic conductivity. The BS-MPM framework ultimately presents a stabilized numerical solution that captures plausible hydromechanical interaction trends important in geotechnical engineering applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Retrospective and Prospective Examination of the 1960s U.S. Northeast Drought

As the most severe drought over the Northeastern United States (NEUS) in the past century, the 1960s drought had pronounced socioeconomic impacts. Although it was followed by a persisting wet period, the conditions leading to the 1960s extreme drought could return in the future, along with its challenges to water management. To project the potential consequences of such a future drought, pseudo-global warming simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model are performed to simulate the dynamical conditions of the historical 1960s drought, but with modified thermodynamic conditions under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP585 scenario in the early (2021–2027), middle (2041–2047), and late (2091–2097) 21st century. Our analysis focuses on essential hydroclimatic variables including temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snowpack, and surface runoff. In contrast to the historical 1960s drought, similar dynamical conditions will generally produce more precipitation, increased soil moisture and evapotranspiration, and reduced snowpack. However, we also find that although wet months get much wetter, dry months may become drier, meaning that wetting trends are most significant in wet months but are essentially negligible for extremely dry months with negative monthly mean net precipitation. For these months, the trend toward wetting conditions provides little relief from the effects of extreme dry months. These conditions may even aggravate water shortages due to an increasingly rapid transition from wet to dry conditions. Other challenges emerge for residents and stakeholders in this region, including more extreme hot days, record-low snow pack, frozen ground degradation and subsequent decreases in surface runoff.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Cypress Sandstone Seal System

The Cypress Sandstone is the youngest and shallowest unit in the Illinois Basin that was featured in the United States Carbon Utilization and Storage Atlas IV as a target for saline carbon storage with an estimated 0.2 to 2.3 GT of storage potential. Additional research on a residual oil zone (ROZ) developed within the Cypress Sandstone has delineated 27 prospects with approximately 290.8 million m3 (1.8 billion barrels) of oil in place. 21 to 31 million m 3 (144 to 196 million barrels) of oil is estimated to be recoverable using carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR). Storage of CO 2 associated with EOR in these ROZ prospects alone, not accounting for associated main pay zones (MPZs), underlying brine formation, or intervals adjacent to or between prospects, is estimated to be up to 10.4 billion tonnes. The Cypress Sandstone is thus well understood to be a CO 2 injection target, both for EOR and associated storage. However, the seal system overlying the Cypress Sandstone is poorly understood. Unlike deeper formations such as the Mt. Simon Sandstone or the St. Peter Sandstone which are either in use as a CO 2 sink or being characterized for prospective storage, respectively, the Cypress is not overlain by hundreds of feet of impermeable shale. Rather, the Cypress is overlain by a lithologically variable interval that is composed generally of shales and limestones with some sandstone in the part of the Basin where the Cypress is deep enough to facilitate CO 2 storage. Also, due to its status as one of the shallowest and most prolific oil reservoirs in the Basin, the seal system overlying the Cypress Sandstone has a relatively high number of legacy well penetrations. The purpose of this report is to characterize the Cypress Sandstone seal system using well logs and available core. Gross thickness, lithology (facies), and mineralogy of seals is described and mapped across the Basin. The column height of CO 2 that can be held is calculated using capillary pressure data from a representative core.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A novel framework for elastoplastic behaviour of anisotropic solids

A general framework for developing nonlinear hyperelastic/plastic constitutive laws for anisotropic solids experiencing large strains and strain rates has been developed. The proposed framework does not rely on the “a priori” known strain energy function, but instead introduces a physical decomposition of the material element into seven physically independent stress bearing mechanisms, each of which has a constitutive law in terms of internal moments described by a scalar function of a single variable. Furthermore, the model has been encoded into a combined finite-discrete element method and tested against static geomechanical test data. The numerical validation experiments show the model can reproduce plastic anisotropic behavior in both biaxial and uniaxial loading of a geomaterial.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

3D fault architecture controls the dynamism of earthquake swarms

The vibrant evolutionary patterns made by earthquake swarms are incompatible with standard, effectively two-dimensional (2D) models for general fault architecture. Here we leverage advances in earthquake monitoring with a deep-learning algorithm to image a fault zone hosting a 4-year-long swarm in southern California. We infer that fluids are naturally injected into the fault zone from below and diffuse through strike-parallel channels while triggering earthquakes. A permeability barrier initially limits up-dip swarm migration but ultimately is circumvented. This enables fluid migration within a shallower section of the fault with fundamentally different mechanical properties. Our observations provide high-resolution constraints on the processes by which swarms initiate, grow, and arrest. These findings illustrate how swarm evolution is strongly controlled by 3D variations in fault architecture.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Changes in Climate and Its Effect on Timing of Snowmelt and Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Snow is a critical water resource for much of the U.S. and failure to account for changes in climate could deleteriously impact military assets. In this study, we produced historical and future snow trends through modeling at three military sites (in Washington, Colorado, and North Dakota) and the Western U.S. For selected rivers, we performed seasonal trend analysis of discharge extremes. We calculated flood frequency curves and estimated the probability of occurrence of future annual maximum daily rainfall depths. Additionally, we generated intensity-duration-frequency curves (IDF) to find rainfall intensities at several return levels. Generally, our results showed a decreasing trend in historical and future snow duration, rain-on-snow events, and snowmelt runoff. This decreasing trend in snowpack could reduce water resources. A statistically significant increase in maximum streamflow for most rivers at the Washington and North Dakota sites occurred for several months of the year. In Colorado, only a few months indicated such an increase. Future IDF curves for Colorado and North Dakota indicated a slight increase in rainfall intensity whereas the Washington site had about a twofold increase. This increase in rainfall intensity could result in major flood events, demonstrating the importance of accounting for climate changes in infrastructure planning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Early Stages in the Lifecycle of Polar Liquid-Bearing Clouds

Stratiform liquid-bearing clouds are ubiquitous over the polar regions, where they are predominantly mixed-phase. These polar clouds induce substantial radiative forcing on the surface and continuously modify the atmospheric thermodynamic budget, with direct implications for the polar ice pack resilience. However, the physical representation of these clouds is still a major challenge for climate models. A significant part of polar liquid-bearing cloud lifecycle is often manifested in a quasi-steady self-sustaining, persistent, and turbulent state, which is driven by longwave cloud radiative cooling and can last for multiple days. This self-sustaining cloud lifecycle stage has been thoroughly investigated in numerous studies, though some of its aspects such as precipitation still lack robust quantification and evaluation. The preceding cloud lifecycle stages, which may last up to several hours, have nonetheless remained widely overlooked. These preceding stages initiate at cloud formation, often in a stable and non-turbulent atmospheric layer and serve as a key junction between cloud persistence and cloud dissipation. These two contrasting cloud lifecycle trajectories pose the question if general circulation models (GCMs) can capture the full lifecycle accurately for the real physical reasons, a necessary condition to improve our confidence in climate projections given the changing polar climate. The purpose of this project was to improve the characterization and understanding of these early stages in the lifecycle of polar stratiform liquid-bearing cloud and to aid their representation in GCMs. This research relied on measurements from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) field campaign, as well as the observations from the ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) and the permanent ARM site at Utqiagvik, North Slope of Alaska (NSA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Soil organic matter is principally root derived in an Ultisol under oak forest

To a large degree, the sources and stability of soil organic carbon remain poorly constrained. A clear understanding of links among the components of the soil C cycle is hampered by the complexity of the system as well as challenges associated with partitioning bulk soil C into meaningful fractions. A large accidental 14 CO 2 release at the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee, USA provided a strong label pulse into adjacent, well-studied oak forests, resulting in highly elevated Δ 14 C values in leaf litter (~1000‰) and roots (~260–450‰). A four-year manipulative study was conducted to determine the relative contribution of litter versus roots to the bulk mineral soil C pool, as well as to free light, occluded light and heavy fractions. The heavy fraction was further split into fractions with densities of 1.7–2.4 g cm –3 and >2.4 g cm –3 to test the homogeneity of the mineral-associated fraction of C. Substantial concentrations of label were detected in all soil fractions within a year of the 14 CO 2 release, indicating rapid incorporation of newly fixed photosynthates in all fractions of soil organic C, regardless of differences in stability inferred by previous work. This rapid incorporation of label occurred only in treatments where roots were labeled, indicating that roots are the major source of inputs to mineral soil C stocks at these sites. Separation of the heavy fraction into subfractions of intermediate (1.7–2.4 g cm –3 ) and high (>2.4 g cm –3 ) density indicated that both subfractions incorporated label at similar rates, despite significant differences in degree of microbial processing. In general, the rate of label incorporation suggested a much faster turnover for all fractions than indicated by natural radiocarbon abundance values. This study suggests that within each soil fraction there are portions of slow-cycling and fast-cycling materials, and the determination of an average turnover time or mean age is dependent on experimental approach. The rapid incorporation of label into all fractions within a year regardless of inferred stability implies a high degree of heterogeneity in all fractions regardless of how finely the soils are partitioned. Further refinement of the nature and drivers of this heterogeneity could yield important insights into the soil C cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Connections Between Mean North Pacific Circulation and Western US Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate

Abstract Extreme precipitation has widespread impacts over the western US (WUS), which are expected to be exacerbated in the future given thermodynamically driven increases in atmospheric moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, internal climate variability complicates how these factors affect future projections of precipitation changes. In this study, we investigate late 21st‐century changes in mean‐state responses over the North Pacific Ocean and associated WUS precipitation extremes using the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, which is a recent and valuable resource to disentangle the effects of model structural differences from internal variability. We found that inter‐model differences in precipitation extremes over the WUS are large: from south to north (here, from California to Washington), models show different levels of increases for both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. In general, the Pacific Northwest sees a more consistent signal than California. We show that wet‐season mean circulation influences extreme precipitation, by using a decomposition of the relative contributions of thermodynamic (atmospheric humidity) and dynamic (large‐scale circulation) driven changes. The thermodynamic contribution dominates, however, the dynamic contribution varies with latitude and differs substantially between model ensembles. Inter‐model differences affect the spread in not only the magnitude, but also the sign of the dynamic contribution. This implies that mean circulation changes contribute to uncertainty in quantifying the regional structure of concentrated moisture flux and future extreme events. This result highlights the need to more accurately constrain projected North Pacific coupled circulation changes to narrow the spread in projections of future precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward Discovering the Structure and Dynamics of the Sun-Interstellar Medium System (Los Alamos LDRD Report)

We have taken major steps toward developing the tools necessary to explore with unprecedented resolution the plasma structure and dynamics of the Sun-interstellar medium (ISM) interaction region, known as the heliosheath. We have applied a rigorous imaging technique known as Generalized Ridge Regression (GRR) to construct statistically robust sky maps of hydrogen energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) emanating from this region and detected by the Los Alamos-led IBEX-Hi ENA imager [1] on NASA’s Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission [2]. Our methods go far beyond the map reconstruction process currently applied by the IBEX Science Operations Center (ISOC), opening up the possibility of new discovery science with the IBEX data set and positioning LANL for a lead science role for the upcoming Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) mission [3] for which LANL is providing two key experiments. We have successfully demonstrated that the new maps are higher resolution and are capable of revealing structures that are not presently resolveable in standard ISOC maps

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hydro-mechanical coupled modeling of hydraulic fracturing using the mesh fragmentation technique

The inclusion of special interface elements between standard finite elements is becoming a common technique to model discontinuities in porous media using the finite element method (FEM). Recently, it was proved that high aspect ratio (HAR) elements can reproduce very satisfactorily the main features of behavior observed in a single hydraulically-induced fracture. In this paper, the mesh fragmentation technique (MFT) is proposed to extend the application of HAR elements to simulate more general problems involving the formation of hydraulic fractures in rocks by introducing this type of element in-between the standard FE of a typical mesh. The proposed framework makes use of standard FE techniques. Therefore, it is relatively easy to upgrade an existing FE program for continuous porous media to deal with evolving discontinuities. The proposed approach is verified and validated against available analytical and numerical solutions. The crack patterns predicted by the MFT are also compared with the ones observed in the laboratory. The formation of multiple fractures is also analyzed. In all cases, the proposed technique was able to properly capture the main features of rock behavior subjected to hydraulic fracturing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Understanding the eco-geomorphologic feedback of coastal marsh under sea level rise: vegetation dynamic representations, processes interaction, and parametric sensitivity

A growing number of coastal eco-geomorphologic modeling studies have been conducted to understand coastal marsh evolution under sea-level rise (SLR). Although these models quantify marsh topographic change as a function of sedimentation and erosion, their representations of vegetation dynamics that control organic sedimentation differ. How vegetation dynamic schemes contribute to simulation outcomes is not well quantified. Additionally, the sensitivity of modeling outcomes to parameter selection in the available formulations has not been rigorously tested to date, especially under the influence of an accelerating SLR. In this paper, we used a coastal eco-geomorphologic model with different vegetation dynamic schemes to investigate the eco-geomorphologic feedbacks of coastal marshes and parametric sensitivity under SLR scenarios. We found that marsh platform relief increased with sea level rise rate. The simulations with different vegetation schemes exhibited different spatial-temporal variations in elevation and biomass. The nonlinear Spartina scheme presented the most resilient prediction with generally the highest marsh accretion and vegetation biomass, and the least elevation relief under SLR. But the linear Spartina scheme predicts the lowest unvegetated-vegetated ratio. We also found that vegetation-related parameters and sediment diffusivity, which were not well measured or discussed in previous studies, were identified as some of the most critical parameters. Additionally, the model sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters increased with SLR rates. The identified most sensitive parameters may inform how to appropriately choose modeling representations of key processes and parameters for different coastal marsh landscapes under SLR, and demonstrate the importance of future field measurements of these key parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Nowcasting Earthquakes: Imaging the Earthquake Cycle in California With Machine Learning

We propose a new machine learning-based method for nowcasting earthquakes to image the time-dependent earthquake cycle. The result is a timeseries that may correspond to the process of stress accumulation and release. The timeseries are constructed by using principal component analysis of regional seismicity. The patterns are found as eigenvectors of the cross-correlation matrix of a collection of seismicity timeseries in a coarse grained regional spatial grid (pattern recognition via unsupervised machine learning). The eigenvalues of this matrix represent the relative importance of the various eigenpatterns. Using the eigenvectors and eigenvalues, we compute the weighted correlation timeseries of the regional seismicity. This timeseries has the property that the weighted correlation generally decreases prior to major earthquakes in the region, and increases suddenly just after a major earthquake occurs. As in a previous paper, we find that this method produces a nowcasting timeseries that resembles the hypothesized regional stress accumulation and release process characterizing the earthquake cycle. We then address the problem of whether the timeseries contain information regarding future large earthquakes. For this, we compute a receiver operating characteristic and determine the decision thresholds for several future time periods of interest (optimization via supervised machine learning). We find that signals can be detected that can be used to characterize the information content of the timeseries. These signals may be useful in assessing present and near-future seismic hazards.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the Correspondence Between Atmosphere-Only and Coupled Simulations for Radiative Feedbacks and Forcing From CO 2

Atmosphere-only experiments are widely used to investigate climate feedbacks simulated in more computationally expensive fully coupled global climate model simulations. We confirm that this remains a valid approach by comparing the radiative feedbacks and forcing between coupled and atmosphere-only simulations for the latest models taking part in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). For global-mean cloud feedbacks, we find a better than previously known correspondence between these experiments, which applies even to the response of individual cloud properties (amount, altitude, and optical depth) and holds even when considering atmosphere-only simulations of only 1 yr duration. For regional cloud feedbacks, the correspondence between the two experiments is generally present at every geographic location except for the tropical Pacific but takes longer experiments to reveal. For the lapse rate and surface albedo feedbacks, the correspondence between the two experiments is weaker due to the non-uniform warming pattern and loss of sea ice in the coupled experiment. For the across-model relationship between 4xCO 2 effective radiative forcing and feedback, we find a different behavior across experiments in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, casting doubt on the physical significance of previous results that highlighted an anti-correlation between the two quantities. Overall, these results confirm the utility of atmosphere-only experiments particularly to study cloud feedbacks, which are the dominant source of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of Supercritical CO2 on Matrix Permeability of Unconventional Formations

We studied the effects of supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO2) on the matrix permeability of reservoir rocks from the Eagle Ford, Utica, and Wolfcamp formations. We measured permeability using argon before exposure of the samples to scCO2 over time periods ranging from days to weeks. We measured permeability (and the change of permeability with confining pressure) when both argon and scCO2 were the pore fluids. In all three formations, we generally observe a negative correlation between initial permeability and carbonate content—the higher the carbonate content, the lower the initial permeability. In clay- and organic-rich samples, swelling of the matrix resulting from adsorption decreased the permeability by about 50% when the pore fluid was scCO2 although this permeability change is largely reversible. In carbonate-rich samples, dissolution of carbonate minerals by carbonic acid irreversibly increased matrix permeability, in some cases by more than one order of magnitude. This dissolution also increases the pressure dependence of permeability apparently due to enhanced mechanical compaction. Despite these trends, we observed no general correlation between mineralogy and the magnitude of the change in permeability with argon before and after exposure to scCO2. Flow of scCO2 through μm-scale cracks appears to play an important role in determining matrix permeability and the pressure dependence of permeability. Extended permeability measurements show that while adsorption is nearly instantaneous and reversible, dissolution is time-dependent, probably owing to reaction kinetics. Our results indicate that the composition and microstructure of matrix flow pathways control both the initial permeability and how permeability changes after interaction with scCO2. Electron microscopy images with Back-Scattered Electron (BSE) and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) revealed dissolution and etching of calcite minerals and precipitation of calcium sulfide resulting from exposure to scCO2.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗