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NASA NTRS1987

Thermodynamic budget diagrams for the hurricane subcloud layer

The idealized hurricane boundary layer budget from Malkus and Riehl (1960) are reexamined using vector diagrams for the thermodynamic budgets in the light of recent observational studies. A large air-sea temperature difference can only be maintained with both large fluxes through cloud-base level and a large evaporative cooling of the subcloud layer. The high equivalent potential temperature values observed in hurricane eyewalls can be reached if these cloud-base and evaporative fluxes are reduced and the subcloud layer moves toward the sea surface virtual potential temperature.

Betts, Alan K.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Suggested hurricane operational scenario for GOES I-M

Improvements in tropical cyclone forecasts require optimum use of remote sensing capabilities, because conventional data sources cannot provide the necessary spatial and temporal data density over tropical and subtropical oceanic regions. In 1989, the first of a series of geostationary weather satellites, GOES 1-M, will be launched with the capability for simultaneous imaging and sounding. Careful scheduling of the GOES 1-M will enable measurements of both the wind and mass fields over the entire tropical cyclone activity area. The document briefly describes the GOES 1-M imager and sounder, surveys the data needs for hurricane forecasting, discusses how geostationary satellite observations help to meet them, and proposes a GOES 1-M schedule of observations and hurricane relevant derived products.

Menzel, W. P.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Automatic analysis of stereoscopic GOES/GOES and GOES/NOAA image pairs for measurement of hurricane cloud top height and structure

Results are presented from a baseline study using an synthetic stereo image pair to test the Automatic Stereo Analysis (ASA) technique for reproducing cloud top structure. The ASA analysis, display, and calibration procedures are described. A GEO/LEO (GOES/NOAA AVHRR) image pair from Hurrican Allen in 1980 is used to illustrate the results that can be obtained using the ASA technique. Also, results are presented from applying the ASA technique to a GEO/GEO (GOES/GOES) image pair of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

Hasler, A. F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

The influence of platform attitude dynamics on the Doppler frequency synthesis of SIR-B ocean data near Hurricane Josephine

The Space Shuttle Challenger was maneuvered into an SAR data-acquisition mode to capture a SIR-B scene of Hurricane Josephine, which presented itself as an unscheduled target of opportunity during NASA Mission 41-G during October 1984. Steeply sloped seas approaching 10 m in height were observed several hundred km in advance of the hurricane track. Mission attitude data indicate that the Shuttle pitch, roll, and yaw were unstable during the data take. The statistical clutterlock used by the ground SAR processor yields a Doppler frequency estimate that tracks the Shuttle yaw variation but is ambiguous with a single discontinuity equal to one multiple of the radar pulse repetition frequency. The SIR-B signal data have been compressed under several Doppler parameterizations to investigate the ambiguity of the clutterlock. Resultant ocean images are analyzed for their contrast and resolution properties.

Tilley, David G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The Split Window Microwave Radiometer (SWMR) for hurricane wind speed measurement from space

The monitoring of hurricanes demands considerable resources each year by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Even with the extensive use of satellite and airborne probing of those storms, there is still much uncertainty involved in predicting landfall for timely evacuation of people subject to the threat. The concept of the Split Window Microwave Radiometer (SWMR) is to add an additional capability of remotely measuring surface winds to hopefully improve prediction capabilities or at least define the severity of the storm while it is far from land. Some of the present science and observational needs are addressed in this report as are remote sensing limitations which impact the design of a minimal system which can be launched into low earth orbit by a low cost launch system. This study has concluded that wind speed and rain rate maps of hurricanes can be generated with an X-Band radiometer system with an antenna whose aperture is 2 m on a side.

Swift, Calvin T.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Probability-matched reflectivity-rainfall relations for a hurricane from aircraft observations

The relation between the distribution of equivalent reflectivity, Z(sub e), measured by an airborne C-band radar and that for rain rate, R, measured concurrently by a disdrometer on the same aircraft in the eyewall and outer bands of Hurricane Anita (1977) was investigated using the probability-matching method (PMM). It was found that the pdf of R is much narrower in the outer rainbands of Hurricane Anita than in the eyewall, and that the mean rain rates are also much smaller. It is shown that the use of PMM provides more realistic relations than the conventional power-law Z-R regression relations based upon scatter-plots of disdrometer measurements, showing higher eyewall reflectivities for the same rain rates at rates in excess of 6.3 mm/h.

Marks, Frank D., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1993

An adaptive multigrid model for hurricane track prediction

This paper describes a simple numerical model for hurricane track prediction which uses a multigrid method to adapt the model resolution as the vortex moves. The model is based on the modified barotropic vorticity equation, discretized in space by conservative finite differences and in time by a Runge-Kutta scheme. A multigrid method is used to solve an elliptic problem for the streamfunction at each time step. Nonuniform resolution is obtained by superimposing uniform grids of different spatial extent; these grids move with the vortex as it moves. Preliminary numerical results indicate that the local mesh refinement allows accurate prediction of the hurricane track with substantially less computer time than required on a single uniform grid.

Fulton, Scott R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Observations of lightning in convective supercells within tropical storms and hurricanes

Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning observations from land-based lightning detection networks now allow monitoring this component of the electrical structure of tropical storms and hurricanes within a few hundred kilometers of the United States coastline. Several case studies confirm the long-held opinion that lightning is rather common within the outer rainbands. The general absence of CG lightning within the interior of mature tropical cyclones is also apparent. On the other hand, bursts of CG lightning near the circulation center of developing storms appear to precede periods of further deepening. The CG events are associated with convective supercells, whose anvil canopies can often obscure much of the underlying storm. Near-eyewall CG bursts preceding periods of intensification were noted in Hurricanes Diana (1984) and Florence (1988). A detailed case study of the 1987 unnamed tropical storm that struck the Texas-Louisiana coastline reveals that lightning was associated with two large supercells. These supercells appeared to be the trigger for the development of a closed circulation that formed several hours after the apparent low pressure center made landfall. Further studies of lightning may provide additional insight into the role of convective supercells in tropical storm intensification. It may also provide a useful diagnostic of impending deepening.

Lyons, Walter A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

An experiment in hurricane track prediction using parallel computing methods

The barotropic model is used to explore the advantages of parallel processing in deterministic forecasting. We apply this model to the track forecasting of hurricane Elena (1985). In this particular application, solutions to systems of elliptic equations are the essence of the computational mechanics. One set of equations is associated with the decomposition of the wind into irrotational and nondivergent components - this determines the initial nondivergent state. Another set is associated with recovery of the streamfunction from the forecasted vorticity. We demonstrate that direct parallel methods based on accelerated block cyclic reduction (BCR) significantly reduce the computational time required to solve the elliptic equations germane to this decomposition and forecast problem. A 72-h track prediction was made using incremental time steps of 16 min on a network of 3000 grid points nominally separated by 100 km. The prediction took 30 sec on the 8-processor Alliant FX/8 computer. This was a speed-up of 3.7 when compared to the one-processor version. The 72-h prediction of Elena's track was made as the storm moved toward Florida's west coast. Approximately 200 km west of Tampa Bay, Elena executed a dramatic recurvature that ultimately changed its course toward the northwest. Although the barotropic track forecast was unable to capture the hurricane's tight cycloidal looping maneuver, the subsequent northwesterly movement was accurately forecasted as was the location and timing of landfall near Mobile Bay.

Song, Chang G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Airborne Radar Observations of Hurricane Georges during Landfall over the Dominican Republic

On 22 September 1998 hurricane Georges made landfall on the Dominican Republic (DR). Georges cost the DR at least 500 lives, made more than 155,000 people homeless and caused extensive damage to the country's main industries, tourism and agriculture. There was considerable wind damage, with wind gusts up to 58 m/s in Santa Domingo on the south coast, but most of the damage and deaths resulted from mudslides and the flooding of rivers. While this may have been the worst natural disaster to strike the DR, the sustained rapid storm movement saved the island from worse damage. Georges had previously affected several islands in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, but it had retained much of its circulation strength. Forty raingauge stations across the DR measured rainfall totals from Georges between 0.7 and 41 cm, the latter at the capital Santo Domingo, located on the south coast. At Herrera the maximum 1 h rainfall rate was 72 mm/h. It is suspected that much higher rain rates occurred in DR's mountainous interior. Before landfall the eye was clearly evident in satellite imagery. When the eye moved over southeastern DR, it filled rapidly, and the cloud top height decreased in all storm sectors except in the southern inflow sector, where a long-lived MCS, with a diameter larger than that of the eyewall, slowly became enwrapped in the hurricane circulation. The eye closure was most rapid between 16-18 UTC, when the eyewall circulation felt the mountainous terrain of the Cordillera Central, which rises up to 3,093 m. The estimated central pressure increased from 962 hPa at 15 UTC to 986 hPa at 03Z on 23 Sept, and the maximum sustained surface wind speed decreased from 54 to 36 in s-1 during the same period. The island of Hispaniola has a cross-track width of about 250 km, much wider than the diameter of the eyewall anvil (about 100 km before landfall). So the event can truly be considered to be a landfalling case, even though Georges recovered after crossing Hispaniola, albeit never to the same strength. This talk will summarize satellite and ground observations of Georges, as it passed the DR, and it will focus on EDOP data. In particular, we will try to estimate the rainfall rate over the mountainous terrain of the DR. And we will use detailed sounding data to explain the presence and characteristics of the massive MCS to the south, as well as the upper-level updrafts apparent over this MCS and over the mountains of the DR.

Geerts, B.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Comparison fo CO2 Lidar Backscatter with Particle Size Distribution and GOES-7 Data in Hurricane Juliette

Two NASA/MSFC continuous wave (CW) focused Doppler lidars obtained in-situ high resolution calibrated backscatter measurements in the upper levels of Hurricane Juliette as part of the 1995 NASA/Multicenter Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (MACAWS) mission on board NASA's DC8 aircraft. These were also intercompared with in-situ cloud particle size distributions obtained from NASA/Ames Research Center's forward scattering spectrometer probe (FSSP), the DC8 aircraft infrared (IR) surface temperature radiometer data, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-7) 11 micrometer IR emission images with their corresponding estimates of cloud top temperature and height. Two traverses of Hurricane Juliette's eye were made off the west coast of Mexico at altitude approx. 11.7 km on 21 September 1995. During this DC8 flight, late stages of eyewall decay-replacement cycles were observed, giving the appearance of an annular eye with clouds in the central region.

Jarzembski, Maurice A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Hurricane Directional Wave Spectrum Spatial Variation at Landfall

On 26 August 1998, hurricane Bonnie was making landfall near Wilmington, NC. The NASA airborne scanning radar altimeter (SRA) carried aboard one of the NOAA WP-3D hurricane hunter aircraft at 2.2 km height documented the sea surface directional wave spectrum in the region between Charleston, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC. The aircraft ground track included both segments along the shoreline and Pamlico Sound as well as far offshore. An animation of the directional wave spectrum spatial variation at landfall will be presented and contrasted with the spatial variation when Bonnie was in the open ocean on 24 August 1998.

Walsh, E. J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Hurricane Directional Wave Spectrum Spatial Variation at Landfall

Walsh, Edward J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Cloud-Resolving Simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991): Storm Structure and Eyewall Buoyancy

A numerical simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991) is conducted using the Penn State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 with a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 Km on the finest nested mesh The model produces a realistic hurricane that intensifies slowly during the period of fine-scale simulation. Time-averaged results reveal the effects of storm motion. vertical shear, beta gyres and deformation forcing on the structure of radial inflow, vertical motion, and precipitation. Instantaneous model fields show that radial inflow in the eyewall is very intense near the surface but transitions to strong low-level outflow near the top of the boundary layer. The low-level structure is modulated by a wavenumber 2 disturbance that rotates around the eyewall at half the speed of the maximum tangential winds and is consistent with a vortex Rossby edge wave. The statistical distribution of vertical velocity in the eyewall indicates that the eyewall is composed of a small number of intense updrafts that account for the majority of the upward mass flux rather than a more gradual and symmetric eyewall circulation, consistent with the concept of hot towers. Tongues of high equivalent potential temperature, Theta(sub e), are seen along the inner edge of the eyewall updraft and within the low-level outflow. This air originates from outside of the eyewall with the highest theta(sub e) air coming from the layer closest to the surface after penetrating closest to the center. Occasionally, high Theta(sub e), air within the eye is drawn into the eyewall updrafts. The high Theta(sub e), air rising within the eyewall is shown to be associated with positive eyewall buoyancy with sufficient convective available potential energy along its path to produce relatively strong convective updrafts. Although the requirements for conditional symmetric instability are met within the eyewall and the air parcel trajectories follow slanted paths, the radial displacement of air parcels in the low-level outflow moves the air parcel sufficiently far away from the upper- warm core that the air becomes unstable to vertical displacements. Hence, convective instability rather than symmetric instability accounts for the stronger updrafts in the eyewall.

Braun, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Midlatitude Cirrus Clouds Derived from Hurricane Nora: A Case Study with Implications for Ice Crystal Nucleation and Shape

Hurricane Nora traveled up the Bala Peninsula coast in the unusually warm El Nino waters of September 1997, until rapidly decaying as it approached Southern California on 24 September. The anvil cirrus blowoff from the final surge of tropical convection became embedded in subtropical flow that advected the cirrus across the western US, where it was studied from the Facility for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (FARS) in Salt Lake City, Utah. A day later, the cirrus shield remnants were redirected southward by midlatitude circulations into the Southern Great Plains, providing a case study opportunity for the research aircraft and ground-based remote sensors assembled at the Clouds and Radiation Testbed (CART) site in northern Oklahoma. Using these comprehensive resources and new remote sensing cloud retrieval algorithms, the microphysical and radiative cloud properties of this unusual cirrus event are uniquely characterized. Importantly, at both the FARS and CART sites the cirrus generated spectacular optical displays, which acted as a tracer for the hurricane cirrus, despite the limited lifetimes of individual ice crystals. Lidar polarization data indicate widespread regions of uniform ice plate orientations, and in situ particle masticator data show a preponderance of pristine, solid hexagonal plates and columns. It is suggested that these unusual aspects are the result of the mode of cirrus particle nucleation, presumably involving the lofting of sea-salt nuclei in thunderstorm updrafts into the upper troposphere. This created a reservoir of haze particles that continued to produce halide-saltcontaminated ice crystals during the extended period of cirrus cloud maintenance. The reference that marine microliters are embedded in the replicas of ice crystals collected over the CART site points to the longevity of marine effects. Various nucleation scenarios proposed for cirrus clouds based on this and other studies, and the implications for understanding cirrus radiative properties or a global scale, are discussed.

Sassen, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS2002

Hurricane Erin September 10, 2001: Comparison of TRMM, AMSU-A and QUIKSCAT Data with an Extensive Aircraft Data Set, and Some Preliminary Results

A main purpose of this study is to compare satellite products from TRMM, AMSU-A and QuikSCAT with a unique, extensive aircraft data set in Category 3 Hurricane Erin on September 10,2001, and to draw some preliminary conclusions from the data. For the first time, dropwinsondes were obtained by the NASA ER-2 aircraft. There were 8 soundings in the eye, core and surroundings radially out to the edge of the Central Dense Overcast (CDO). Additionally, 11 dropwinsondes from the DC-8 aircraft at about 12 km documented the storm outskirts and environment. TRMM made a direct overpass of the eye as did both NOAA-15 and NOM-16 with AMSU on board. Among the most interesting results: Contours of the tropopause height (a first). As expected from earlier fragmentary results, the tropopause was approximately 1 km higher in the core than in the environment. The highest tropopause was about 2 km above the tallest towers in the eyewall, south-southeast of the eye center, suggesting that earlier convective towers had been higher than those measured by EDOP and TRMM during the flights. Surprisingly, the heaviest precipitation was on the opposite side of the eyewall from the tallest convective towers. The warm core was elongated in the vertical, and poorly retrieved from the AMSU-A data by the NESDIS profile retrieval algorithm. The eye of Erin was "dirty". A CCN/CN counter flown on the NOAA P3 at 14.3 km showed a concentration of 1500 aerosol particles per cubic centimeter. This is an order of magnitude higher than a sample in the hurricane environment. TRMM data are used to hypothesize an explanation.

Simpson, J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Variational Continuous Assimilation of TMI and SSM/I Rain Rates: Impact on GEOS-3 Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

We describe a variational continuous assimilation (VCA) algorithm for assimilating tropical rainfall data using moisture and temperature tendency corrections as the control variable to offset model deficiencies. For rainfall assimilation, model errors are of special concern since model-predicted precipitation is based on parameterized moist physics, which can have substantial systematic errors. This study examines whether a VCA scheme using the forecast model as a weak constraint offers an effective pathway to precipitation assimilation. The particular scheme we exarnine employs a '1+1' dimension precipitation observation operator based on a 6-h integration of a column model of moist physics from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system DAS). In earlier studies, we tested a simplified version of this scheme and obtained improved monthly-mean analyses and better short-range forecast skills. This paper describes the full implementation ofthe 1+1D VCA scheme using background and observation error statistics, and examines how it may improve GEOS analyses and forecasts of prominent tropical weather systems such as hurricanes. Parallel assimilation experiments with and without rainfall data for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd show that assimilating 6-h TMI and SSM/I surfice rain rates leads to more realistic storm features in the analysis, which, in turn, provide better initial conditions for 5-day storm track prediction and precipitation forecast. These results provide evidence that addressing model deficiencies in moisture tendency may be crucial to making effective use of precipitation information in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Strong Updraft Feature Associated with Hurricane Earl During Landfall

On 2-3 September 1998 hurricane Earl made landfall along the Gulf of Mexico coast, east of Panama City, FL. The University of Alabama in Huntsville Mobile Integrated Profiling System (MIPS) was located at the airport in Tallahassee, FL and made measurements of Earl with a 915 MHz Doppler wind profiler as the system moved across the Florida panhandle. As the center of Earl approached MIPS, a particularly strong updraft feature, having a magnitude of approx. 15 m/s within the lowest 3.0 km above ground level was associated with a rain band. An analysis of the changes hurricane Earl underwent as it made landfall are presented. Measurements used include surface thermodynamic and pressure observations, lightning data, National Weather Service Doppler Weather Surveillance Radar (WSR-88D) data, and Geostationary Earth Orbiting Satellite (GOES) data. Then an analysis focusing on the boundary layer properties and the updraft feature's depth, intensity and duration as measured by the MIPS 915 MHz Doppler wind profiler are presented.

Roberts, Barry C.↗