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Prospecting for Habitable Worlds

NASAs Kepler Mission was launched in March 2009 as NASAs first mission capable of finding Earth-size planets orbiting in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars, that range of distances for which liquid water would pool on the surface of a rocky planet. Kepler has discovered over 2200 planets and over 2200 candidate planets, many of them as small as the Earth. Forty nine of these are less than twice the size of Earth and orbit in the habitable zone of their stars, all of which are cooler and significantly smaller than the Sun.Today, Keplers amazing success seems to be a fait accompli to those unfamiliar with her history. But twenty years ago, there were no planets known outside our solar system, and few people believed it was possible to detect tiny Earth-size planets orbiting other stars. Indeed, demonstrating that the science was feasible took four proposals to NASAs Discovery Program and extensive research and laboratory demonstrations. Motivating NASA to select Kepler for launch required a confluence of the right detector technology, advances in signal processing and algorithms, and the power of supercomputing. On August 23 2015 we reported the discovery of Kepler-452b, the first small, possibly rocky planet in the habitable zone of a G2 star very similar to our own. Kepler-452b orbits its star once every 385 days in an orbit just 5 larger than that of Earth. This discovery represents an important step towards finding and characterizing small habitable worlds orbiting Sun-like stars.

Jenkins, Jon M.↗

A Habitable-zone Earth-sized Planet Rescued from False Positive Status

We report the discovery of an Earth-sized planet in the habitable zone of a low-mass star called Kepler-1649. The planet, Kepler-1649 c, is 1.06(+0.15, -0.10.) times the size of Earth and transits its 0.1977 ± 0.0051 Mʘ “mid” M-dwarf host star every 19.5 days. It receives 74% ± 3% the incident flux of Earth, giving it an equilibrium temperature of 234 ± 20 K and placing it firmly inside the circumstellar habitable zone. Kepler-1649 also hosts a previously known inner planet that orbits every 8.7 days and is roughly equivalent to Venus in size and incident flux. Kepler-1649 c was originally classified as a false positive (FP) by the Kepler pipeline, but was rescued as part of a systematic visual inspection of all automatically dispositioned Kepler FPs. This discovery highlights the value of human inspection of planet candidates even as automated techniques improve, and hints that terrestrial planets around mid to late M-dwarfs may be more common than those around more massive stars.

Andrew Vanderburg↗

Herschel/PACS Photometry of Transiting-Planet Host Stars with Candidate Warm Debris Disks

Dust in debris disks is produced by colliding or evaporating planetesimals, which are remnants of the planet formation process. Warm dust disks, known by their emission at less than or equal to 24 micrometer, are rare (4% of FGK main sequence stars) and especially interesting because they trace material in the region likely to host terrestrial planets, where the dust has a very short dynamical lifetime. Statistical analyses of the source counts of excesses as found with the mid-IR Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) suggest that warm-dust candidates found for the Kepler transiting-planet host-star candidates can be explained by extragalactic or galactic background emission aligned by chance with the target stars. These statistical analyses do not exclude the possibility that a given WISE excess could be due to a transient dust population associated with the target. Here we report Herschel/PACS 100 and 160 micron follow-up observations of a sample of Kepler and non-Kepler transiting-planet candidates' host stars, with candidate WISE warm debris disks, aimed at detecting a possible cold debris disk in any one of them. No clear detections were found in any one of the objects at either wavelength. Our upper limits confirm that most objects in the sample do not have a massive debris disk like that in beta Pic. We also show that the planet-hosting star WASP-33 does not have a debris disk comparable to the one around eta Crv. Although the data cannot be used to rule out rare warm disks around the Kepler planet-hosting candidates, the lack of detections and the characteristics of neighboring emission found at far-IR wavelengths support an earlier result suggesting that most of the WISE-selected IR excesses around Kepler candidate host stars are likely due to either chance alignment with background IR-bright galaxies and/or to interstellar emission.

Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE)↗

From Pixels to Planets

The Kepler Mission was launched in 2009 as NASAs first mission capable of finding Earth-size planets in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars. Its telescope consists of a 1.5-m primary mirror and a 0.95-m aperture. The 42 charge-coupled devices in its focal plane are read out every half hour, compressed, and then downlinked monthly. After four years, the second of four reaction wheels failed, ending the original mission. Back on earth, the Science Operations Center developed the Science Pipeline to analyze about 200,000 target stars in Keplers field of view, looking for evidence of periodic dimming suggesting that one or more planets had crossed the face of its host star. The Pipeline comprises several steps, from pixel-level calibration, through noise and artifact removal, to detection of transit-like signals and the construction of a suite of diagnostic tests to guard against false positives. The Kepler Science Pipeline consists of a pipeline infrastructure written in the Java programming language, which marshals data input to and output from MATLAB applications that are executed as external processes. The pipeline modules, which underwent continuous development and refinement even after data started arriving, employ several analytic techniques, many developed for the Kepler Project. Because of the large number of targets, the large amount of data per target and the complexity of the pipeline algorithms, the processing demands are daunting. Some pipeline modules require days to weeks to process all of their targets, even when run on NASA's 128-node Pleiades supercomputer. The software developers are still seeking ways to increase the throughput. To date, the Kepler project has discovered more than 4000 planetary candidates, of which more than 1000 have been independently confirmed or validated to be exoplanets. Funding for this mission is provided by NASAs Science Mission Directorate.

supercomputers↗

The Featureless Transmission Spectra of Two Super-puff Planets

The Kepler mission revealed a class of planets known as "super-puffs," with masses only a few times larger than Earth's but radii larger than Neptune, giving them very low mean densities. All three of the known planets orbiting the young solar-type star Kepler 51 are super-puffs. The Kepler 51 system thereby provides an opportunity for a comparative study of the structures and atmospheres of this mysterious class of planets, which may provide clues about their formation and evolution. We observed two transits each of Kepler 51b and 51d with the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) on the Hubble Space Telescope. Combining new WFC3 transit times with reanalyzed Kepler data and updated stellar parameters, we confirmed that all three planets have densities lower than 0.1 g/cu.cm. We measured the WFC3 transmission spectra to be featureless between 1.15 and 1.63 μm, ruling out any variations greater than 0.6 scale heights (assuming a H/He-dominated atmosphere), thus showing no significant water absorption features. We interpreted the flat spectra as the result of a high-altitude aerosol layer (pressure <3 mbar) on each planet. Adding this new result to the collection of flat spectra that have been observed for other sub-Neptune planets, we find support for one of the two hypotheses introduced by Crossfield & Kreidberg, that planets with cooler equilibrium temperatures have more high-altitude aerosols. We strongly disfavor their other hypothesis that the H/He mass fraction drives the appearance of large-amplitude transmission features.

Jessica E. Libby-Roberts↗

Supercomputing in the Age of Discovering Superearths, Earths and Exoplanet Systems

NASA's Kepler Mission was launched in March 2009 as NASA's first mission capable of finding Earth-size planets orbiting in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars, that range of distances for which liquid water would pool on the surface of a rocky planet. Kepler has discovered over 1000 planets and over 4600 candidates, many of them as small as the Earth. Today, Kepler's amazing success seems to be a fait accompli to those unfamiliar with her history. But twenty years ago, there were no planets known outside our solar system, and few people believed it was possible to detect tiny Earth-size planets orbiting other stars. Motivating NASA to select Kepler for launch required a confluence of the right detector technology, advances in signal processing and algorithms, and the power of supercomputing.

exoplanet↗

Chasing Exoplanets

NASA's Kepler Mission was launched in March 2009 as NASA's first mission capable of finding Earth-size planets orbiting in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars, that range of distances for which liquid water would pool on the surface of a rocky planet. Kepler has discovered over 1000 planets and over 4600 candidates, many of them as small as the Earth. Today, Kepler's amazing success seems to be a fait accompli to those unfamiliar with her history. But twenty years ago, there were no planets known outside our solar system, and few people believed it was possible to detect tiny Earth-size planets orbiting other stars. Motivating NASA to select Kepler for launch required a confluence of the right detector technology, advances in signal processing and algorithms, and the power of supercomputing.

Kepler Mission↗

Multi-Planetary Systems: Observations and Models of Dynamical Interactions

More than 600 multi-planet systems are known. The vast majority of these systems have been discovered by NASA's Kepler spacecraft, but dozens were found using the Doppler technique, the first multi-exoplanet system was identified through pulsar timing, and the most massive system has been found using imaging. More than one-third of the 4000+ planet candidates found by NASA's Kepler spacecraft are associated with target stars that have more than one planet candidate, and the large number of such Kepler "multis" tells us that flat multiplanet systems like our Solar System are common. Virtually all of Kepler candidate multis are stable, as tested by numerical integrations that assume a physically motivated mass-radius relationship. Statistical studies performed on these candidate systems reveal a great deal about the architecture of planetary systems, including the typical spacing of orbits and flatness. The characteristics of several of the most interesting confirmed multi-exoplanet systems will also be discussed.HR 8799's four massive planets orbit tens of AU from their host star and travel on nearly circular orbits. PSR B1257+12 has three much smaller planets orbiting close to a neutron star. Both represent extremes and show that planet formation is a robust process that produces a diversity of outcomes. Although both exomoons and Trojan (triangle Lagrange point) planets have been searched for, neither has yet been found.

planet candidates↗

Prospecting for Habitable Planets

NASA's Kepler Mission was launched in March 2009 as NASA's first mission capable of finding Earth-size planets orbiting in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars, that range of distances for which liquid water would pool on the surface of a rocky planet. Kepler has discovered over 1000 planets and over 4600 candidates, many of them as small as the Earth. Today, Kepler's amazing success seems to be a fait accompli to those unfamiliar with her history. But twenty years ago, there were no planets known outside our solar system, and few people believed it was possible to detect tiny Earth-size planets orbiting other stars. Motivating NASA to select Kepler for launch required a confluence of the right detector technology, advances in signal processing and algorithms, and the power of supercomputing.

Kepler Mission↗

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems: Towards a Multi-planet Model for Reproducing the Planet Radius Valley and Intra-system Size Similarity

Multi-planet systems provide crucial insights into the architectures and correlations within planetary systems, which in turn offer clues into their formation and evolution histories. Through the thousands of exoplanet candidates that it discovered, NASA's Kepler mission revealed that systems with multiple transiting planets are common. We describe a new model for inferring the exoplanet population observed by Kepler, which combines a semi-parametric description of planetary systems with a prescription for envelope mass-loss due to photoevaporation. This new model is a"hybrid" of the maximum AMD (angular momentum deficit) model in which the orbital excitations of the planets are drawn by distributing the system's critical AMD (He et al. 2020), and a photoevaporation model for sculpting the observed radius valley (Neil & Rogers 2020). This is an update to the SysSim suite of exoplanet population models derived from forward modeling the Kepler detection pipeline. The hybrid model is constrained by the observed statistics of multi-transiting systems, including additional constraints from the distribution of planet radii and their intra-system size patterns. This model is capable of producing a planet radius valley as well as a preference for planet size similarity. However, we find that the Kepler catalog exhibits features that are even more significant (i.e., it has a deeper observed radius valley and stronger size similarity) than the best-fit model. We use this model to infer the intrinsic planet radius valley as well as the distribution of primordial planet masses and core masses.

kepler↗

An Empirical Method for Determining the Lunar Gravity Field

A method has been devised to determine the spherical harmonic coefficients of the lunar gravity field. This method consists of a two-step data reduction and estimation process. In the first step, a weighted least-squares empirical orbit determination scheme is applied to Doppler tracking data from lunar orbits to estimate long-period Kepler elements and rates. Each of the Kepler elements is represented by an independent function of time. The long-period perturbing effects of the earth, sun, and solar radiation are explicitly modeled in this scheme. Kepler element variations estimated by this empirical processor are ascribed to the non-central lunar gravitation features. Doppler data are reduced in this manner for as many orbits as are available. In the second step, the Kepler element rates are used as input to a second least-squares processor that estimates lunar gravity coefficients using the long-period Lagrange perturbation equations.

Ferrari, A. J.↗

Lunar gravity derived from long-period satellite motion - A proposed method.

A new method has been devised to determine the spherical harmonic coefficients of the lunar gravity field. This method consists of a two-step data reduction and estimation process. In the first step, a weighted least-squares empirical orbit determination scheme is applied to Doppler tracking data from lunar orbits to estimate long-period Kepler elements and rates. Each of the Kepler elements is represented by an independent function of time. The long-period perturbing effects of the earth, sun, and solar radiation are explicitly modeled in this scheme. Kepler element variations estimated by this empirical processor are then ascribed to the non-central lunar gravitation features. Doppler data are reduced in this manner for as many orbits as are available. In the second step, the Kepler element rates are used as input to a second least-squares processor that estimates lunar gravity coefficients using the long-period Lagrange perturbation equations.

Ferrari, A. J.↗

New developments in astrodynamics algorithms for autonomous rendezvous

A the core of any autonomous rendezvous guidance system must be two algorithms for solving Lambert's and Kepler's problems, the two fundamental problems in classical astrodynamics. Lambert's problem is to determine the trajectory connecting specified initial and terminal position vectors in a specified transfer time. The solution is the initial and terminal velocity vectors. Kepler's problem is to determine the trajectory that stems from a given initial state (position and velocity). The solution is the state of an earlier or later specified time. To be suitable for flight software, astrodynamics algorithms must be totally reliable, compact, and fast. Although solving Lambert's and Kepler's problems has challenged some of the world's finest minds for over two centuries, only in the last year have algorithms appeared that satisfy all three requirements just stated. This paper presents an evaluation of the most highly regarded Lambert and Kepler algorithms.

Klumpp, Allan R.↗

The Dependence of Signal-To-Noise Ratio (S/N) Between Star Brightness and Background on the Filter Used in Images Taken by the Vulcan Photometric Planet Search Camera

The Vulcan Photometric Planet Search is the ground-based counterpart of Kepler Mission Proposal. The Kepler Proposal calls for the launch of telescope to look intently at a small patch of sky for four year. The mission is designed to look for extra-solar planets that transit sun-like stars. The Kepler Mission should be able to detect Earth-size planets. This goal requires an instrument and software capable of detecting photometric changes of several parts per hundred thousand in the flux of a star. The goal also requires the continuous monitoring of about a hundred thousand stars. The Kepler Mission is a NASA Discovery Class proposal similar in cost to the Lunar Prospector. The Vulcan Search is also a NASA project but based at Lick Observatory. A small wide-field telescope monitors various star fields successively during the year. Dozens of images, each containing tens of thousands of stars, are taken any night that weather permits. The images are then monitored for photometric changes of the order of one part in a thousand. These changes would reveal the transit of an inner-orbit Jupiter-size planet similar to those discovered recently in spectroscopic searches. In order to achieve a one part in one thousand photometric precision even the choice of a filter used in taking an exposure can be critical. The ultimate purpose of an filter is to increase the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of one's observation. Ideally, filters reduce the sky glow cause by street lights and, thereby, make the star images more distinct. The higher the S/N, the higher is the chance to observe a transit signal that indicates the presence of a new planet. It is, therefore, important to select the filter that maximizes the S/N.

Mena-Werth, Jose↗

Status of the TESS Science Processing Operations Center

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) science pipeline is being developed by the Science Processing Operations Center (SPOC) at NASA Ames Research Center based on the highly successful Kepler Mission science pipeline. Like the Kepler pipeline, the TESS science pipeline will provide calibrated pixels, simple and systematic error-corrected aperture photometry, and centroid locations for all 200,000+ target stars, observed over the 2-year mission, along with associated uncertainties. The pixel and light curve products are modeled on the Kepler archive products and will be archived to the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST). In addition to the nominal science data, the 30-minute Full Frame Images (FFIs) simultaneously collected by TESS will also be calibrated by the SPOC and archived at MAST. The TESS pipeline will search through all light curves for evidence of transits that occur when a planet crosses the disk of its host star. The Data Validation pipeline will generate a suite of diagnostic metrics for each transit-like signature discovered, and extract planetary parameters by fitting a limb-darkened transit model to each potential planetary signature. The results of the transit search will be modeled on the Kepler transit search products (tabulated numerical results, time series products, and pdf reports) all of which will be archived to MAST.

high performance computing↗

Exploring Beyond Earth's Atmosphere with Human-Machine Teams

NASA's highly successful Kepler Mission has revolutionized our understanding of the Galaxy. We now know that planets, even Earth-size planets in the habitable zone, are common. With the end of the Kepler Mission we now look to the future with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) which will discover thousands of exoplanets in orbit around the brightest stars in the sky. In a two-year survey, TESS will perform an all-sky search of more than 200,000 stars for temporary drops in brightness caused by planetary transits. With Kepler and TESS, humanity is finally at the verge of studying the masses, sizes, densities, orbits, and atmospheres of a large cohort of small planets, including a sample of rocky worlds in the habitable zones of their host stars which may prove to host life. The massive data sets generated by Kepler and TESS must be meticulously combed for the weakest planetary signals every month. While a daunting and error-prone task for humans, this is an exciting opportunity for the breakthroughs recently seen in machine learning. Specifically, traditional methods for identifying planet transits require extensive data processing pipelines followed by extensive human vetting. This manual process risks loss of information due to the data processing and to inconsistency and biases due to individual human vetters. The latest advancements in machine learning will allow an objective classifier to minimize the losses of information and greatly lessen the burden on the human vetters, in addition to providing assessment of quality and score to each planet candidate, freeing the humans to concentrate on border cases and other more interesting investigations.

Smith, Jeffrey C.↗

Comparison of Atmospheric Delay Statistics from Deep Space Network Arrays and Nearby Test Interferometers

Several techniques have been explored and demonstrated that allow for greater data return on space-to-ground links. Among these techniques, arraying several smaller diameter dish antennas together is one method used in several arenas. These arrays can achieve larger effective area and gain than are available from a single larger antenna. This technique is routinely used by the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) at 8.4 GHz where the incoming signals are much weaker than those experienced by the near-Earth satellite community. When considering arraying at much higher frequencies such as 32 GHz deep-space Ka-band, the phase alignment of the individual antenna signals is significantly disrupted by atmospheric turbulence. Since 2012, several downlink array demonstrations have been conducted using 32 GHz carrier signals emitted by the deep space probes Cassini and Kepler. Site test interferometers (STIs) that receive signals from geostationary satellites have been deployed at all three DSN tracking complexes for long-term monitoring of atmospheric delay fluctuations. In a previous DSN array demonstration study involving the Cassini spacecraft, it was shown that statistics of the adjusted STI phase fluctuations matched the statistics of concurrent array demonstration phase fluctuations. These adjustments accounted for differences in antenna separation, elevation angle and spacecraft frequencies. The STI antenna separations were about 200 m and the DSN antenna separations were about 300 m. These adjustments made use of the thick-layer turbulence model that was applicable to the Goldstone desert climate during the summer months for which the data were acquired. In this paper, we report on the results of additional array demonstrations involving the Kepler spacecraft and compare the adjusted STI phase fluctuations with those seen by a nearby two-element array of 34 m diameter antennas tracking Kepler’s 32 GHz signal at the Goldstone, California and Madrid, Spain DSN sites. We also discuss results from a demonstration using an array over a longer 12.5 km baseline. The Cassini and Kepler array demonstrations were found to validate the long term statistics acquired from several years of STI data as well as the models used to adjust the statistics for the conditions of an array. These statistics represent reliable estimates of the phase fluctuations that would be seen by an array tracking a deep space signal after applying appropriate adjustments for a given array configuration, elevation angle profile and observing frequency.

Morabito, David D.↗

Climate Modeling of a Potential Exovenus

The planetary mass and radius sensitivity of exoplanet discovery capabilities has reached into the terrestrial regime. The focus of such investigations is to search within the Habitable Zone where a modern Earth-like atmosphere may be a viable comparison. However, the detection bias of the transit and radial velocity methods lies close to the host star where the received flux at the planet may push the atmosphere into a runaway greenhouse state. One such exoplanet discovery, Kepler-1649b, receives a similar flux from its star as modern Venus does from the Sun, and so was categorized as a possible exoVenus. Here we discuss the planetary parameters of Kepler-1649b in relation to Venus to establish its potential as a Venus analog. We utilize the general circulation model ROCKE-3D to simulate the evolution of the surface temperature of Kepler-1649b under various assumptions, including relative atmospheric abundances. We show that in all our simulations the atmospheric model rapidly diverges from temperate surface conditions toward a runaway greenhouse with rapidly escalating surface temperatures. We calculate transmission spectra for the evolved atmosphere and discuss these spectra within the context of the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph capabilities. We thus demonstrate the detectability of the key atmospheric signatures of possible runaway greenhouse transition states and outline the future prospects of characterizing potential Venus analogs.

Astrobiology↗