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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Big Wheel Farm: Farmland Scour Reduction

Flood irrigation benefits from low infrastructure costs and maintenance but the scour near the weirs can cause channeling of the flow preventing the water from evenly dispersing across the field. Using flow obstructions in front of the weir could reduce be a low cost solution to reduce the scour. The mitigation strategy was to virtually simulate the effects of various geometric changes to the morphology (e.g. holes and bumps) in front of the weir as a means to diffuse the high intensity flow coming from the gate. After running a parametric study for the dimensions of the shapes that included a Gaussian, semi-circle, and rectangle; a Gaussian-hole in front of the gates showed the most promise to reduce farm field shear-stresses with the added benefit of being easy to construct and implement in practice. Further the simulations showed that the closer the Gaussian-hole could be placed to the gate the sooner the high shear stress could be reduced. To realize the most benefit from this mitigation strategy, it was determined that the maximum depth of the Gaussian-hole should be 0.5 m. The width of the hole in the flow direction and the length of the Gaussian-hole normal to the flow should be 0.5 m and 3 m respectively as measured by the full width at half maximum.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Computational Investigation of Gear Windage

A CFD method has been developed for application to gear windage aerodynamics. The goals of this research are to develop and validate numerical and modeling approaches for these systems, to develop physical understanding of the aerodynamics of gear windage loss, including the physics of loss mitigation strategies, and to propose and evaluate new approaches for minimizing loss. Absolute and relative frame CFD simulation, overset gridding, multiphase flow analysis, and sub-layer resolved turbulence modeling were brought to bear in achieving these goals. Several spur gear geometries were studied for which experimental data are available. Various shrouding configurations and free-spinning (no shroud) cases were studied. Comparisons are made with experimental data from the open literature, and data recently obtained in the NASA Glenn Research Center Gear Windage Test Facility. The results show good agreement with experiment. Interrogation of the validative and exploratory CFD results have led, for the first time, to a detailed understanding of the physical mechanisms of gear windage loss, and have led to newly proposed mitigation strategies whose effectiveness is computationally explored.

Hill, Matthew J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Detritiation Strategies for Mitigating Tritium Releases

Tritium confinement is performed using different barriers to minimize releases to the environment. Primary confinement is usually performed by process piping and components, secondary confinement typically by inerted gloveboxes connected to a continuously operating tritium stripper system. Some facility designs employ tertiary tritium confinement by using process room confinement with a tritium stripper system activated after an accident to further mitigate tritium releases to the environment. Secondary confinement of some tritium systems such as radiation-hardened or shielded-cell enclosures are not easily achieved using designs for inerted glovebox. These enclosures can be challenging to seal for secondary tritium confinement due to heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) needs for temperature control, as well as feedthroughs for equipment and instrumentation, are potential pathways for tritium leaks or loses. Additional tritium leak paths can be created in secondary confinement enclosures due to a Design Basis Accident (DBA) seismic event. These new, larger tritium leak rates from the DBA event are usually not part of the stripper system design basis so all tritium released to the secondary confinement enclosure is assumed released to the environment. Detritiation strategies for shielded enclosures and/or gloveboxes with significant leak rates are necessary to minimize off-site radiological dose consequences. To address this, the relationship between the confinement system leak rate and stripper system (recirculating) flow rate was evaluated to meet prescribed maximum allowable environmental tritium emissions from the event. The simple analysis described assumes a constant leak rate from the confinement system (i.e. shielded enclosure or glovebox) while a recirculating stripper system strips tritium from the system– a competition between tritium release and tritium recovery. At a high level, the resulting expression summarizes the relationship between system leak rate (F L ) and stripper flow rate (F S ) relative to allowable tritium release (Q A ) and initial tritium release (Q 0 ): $\frac{F_L}{F_s}$ ≈ $\frac{Q_A}{Q_0}$. This report derives the relationship between these parameters, examines the impact of finite stripping times followed by purging of the stripped volume. The analysis provides example results for up to 30 gram tritium releases: the maximum tritium inventory of a Hazard Category III (Department of Energy) Nuclear Facility. The detritiation model presented represents a high-level analysis of tritium recovery versus losses for “leaky” confinement enclosures such as shielded cells after large tritium releases. Key parameters for doing the analyses are the system leak rate, stripper flow rate, initial tritium release, and allowable tritium release values. The analyses show a proportional decrease in releases with reduction in initial tritium release but a non-linear increase in tritium recovery with increased stripper flow rate or reduced leak-rate. The analyses also apply to glovebox confinement systems which could have significant increases in leak rates after a DBA. The analysis recognizes but does not include tritium absorption followed by re-emission from the walls of the confinement volume – an analysis which could be pursued in future studies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗
DOE OSTI2019

Methodology Development for Cybersecurity Robustness and Vulnerability Assessment of University Research Reactors

In 2012, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) formed a working group in collaboration with the Test, Research and Training Reactors (TRTR) group to review cyber security programs at US nuclear nonpower reactor (NPR) facilities. Following their review of cyber security at four different university NPR (i.e. university research reactor (URR)) facilities, the NRC staff made recommendations for improvements at URR including 1) augmenting the URR licensees’ understanding of the protective features provided with their physical security systems, 2) educating URR facility staff on cyber security issues, and 3) developing guidance to help the URR facilities maintain adequate cyber security going forward. This three-year project to develop and implement a cyber-security risk assessment methodology and defense-in-depth mitigation strategy for application at URR facilities provides solutions effectively addressing each of the recommendations given in the NRC review referenced above. In support of this project, cyber security documentation and guidance from the NRC, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Industrial Control Systems (ICS) Cyber Emergency Response Team (CERT), National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), were reviewed. Most of this documentation did not take the unique resources, configuration, and infrastructure associated with URR facilities into account. The NRC-TRTR effective practices document provides useful guidance for implementing cyber security protections at URR, but lacks a structured framework for systematically auditing facility digital control assets (DCA) and evaluating associated cyber threats, vulnerabilities, and risk. The outcomes from this project, therefore, seek to build on the general resources above by providing a straightforward DCA auditing and risk assessment methodology, as well as mitigation strategies, that may be implemented to address the risk of cyber-attack at URR facilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Resolving hot spot microstructure using x-ray penumbral imaging (invited)

We have developed and fielded x-ray penumbral imaging on the National Ignition Facility in order to enable sub-10 μm resolution imaging of stagnated plasma cores (hot spots) of spherically shock compressed spheres and shell implosion targets. By utilizing circular tungsten and tantalum apertures with diameters ranging from 20 μm to 2 mm, in combination with image plate and gated x-ray detectors as well as imaging magnifications ranging from 4 to 64, we have demonstrated high-resolution imaging of hot spot plasmas at x-ray energies above 5 keV. Here we give an overview of the experimental design criteria involved and demonstrate the most relevant influences on the reconstruction of x-ray penumbral images, as well as mitigation strategies of image degrading effects like over-exposed pixels, artifacts, and photon limited source emission. We describe experimental results showing the advantages of x-ray penumbral imaging over conventional Fraunhofer and photon limited pinhole imaging and showcase how internal hot spot microstructures can be resolved.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bioenergy Technologies in Long-Run Climate Change Mitigation: Results from the EMF-33 Study

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in long-run climate change mitigation strategies as highlighted by many integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios. These scenarios, however, also show a very wide range of results, with uncertainty about bioenergy conversion technology deployment and biomass feedstock supply. To date, the underlying differences in model assumptions and parameters for the range of results have not been conveyed. Here we explore the models and results of the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum to elucidate and explore bioenergy technology specifications and constraints that underlie projected bioenergy outcomes. We first develop and report consistent bioenergy technology characterizations and modeling details. We evaluate the bioenergy technology specifications through a series of analyses—comparison with the literature, model intercomparison, and an assessment of bioenergy technology projected deployments. We find that bioenergy technology coverage and characterization varies substantially across models, spanning different conversion routes, carbon capture and storage opportunities, and technology deployment constraints. Still, the range of technology specification assumptions is largely in line with bottom-up engineering estimates. We then find that variation in bioenergy deployment across models cannot be understood from technology costs alone. Important additional determinants include biomass feedstock costs, the availability and costs of alternative mitigation options in and across end-uses, the availability of carbon dioxide removal possibilities, the speed with which large scale changes in the makeup of energy conversion facilities and integration can take place, and the relative demand for different energy services.

bioenergy↗
NASA NTRS2023

Molecular Identification of Microbial Contaminants

Microorganisms can have significant impacts on the success of NASA’s missions, including the integrity of materials, the reliability of scientific results, and maintenance of crew health. Robust cleaning and sterilization protocols are currently in place in NASA facilities, but agency experts agree that microbial contamination is unavoidable and its impact on NASA’s missions and science must be minimized. Therefore, it is critical to understand: 1) what specific microorganisms are present, 2) how they may impact scientific objectives, and 3) how to select appropriate mitigation strategies. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Planetary Protection (PP) microbiology lab historically relied solely upon enumeration of culturable microbial contamination associated with spacecraft materials or cleanrooms. However, this process is time consuming, many microbes cannot be cultured, and very few can be identified with any fidelity using NASA standard microbiological methods. The work described in this white paper includes the establishment of molecular identification capabilities at MSFC, including DNA isolation, amplification, purification, and Sanger sequencing. This capability will not only improve planetary protection efforts at MSFC (i.e. by identifying contaminating microorganisms in cleanrooms or on spacecraft) but also offers a service center-wide for the identification of contaminants that arise in other projects, processing locations, or during set up and roll out of spacecraft. This work also lays the foundation for higher throughput efforts to identify large populations of microbes across the lifetime of a project and serves as the starting point for future work into whole genome sequencing, non-culture based methods, or additional characterization studies. Ultimately, accurate identification informs appropriate mitigation strategies, increasing the chances of success for NASA’s missions and objectives.

C. D. Cassilly↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamical Decoupling for Measuring and Suppressing Crosstalk

Dynamical decoupling (DD) is a noise-mitigating strategy in which sequences of pulses are applied to single qubits to average out their interaction with the environment. DD has been extensively studied and demonstrated for suppressing single-qubit decoherence and can be tailored for different noise spectrum. We report another important adaptation of DD where crosstalk between qubits are suppressed. We demonstrate the efficiency of this procedure on quantum circuits on superconducting transmon-based quantum devices. We designed a family of syncopated DD sequences that effectively suppress ZZ coupling between qubit pairs, which is the dominating crosstalk form on the device. We insert DD to a quantum circuit whenever single qubits are idle (often during two-qubits gates on other qubits). While standard periodic DD suppress crosstalk between these qubits and their neighbors, the syncopated DD further decouples crosstalk between these qubits. We further designed short sequences that maximize the application of DD without adding time to the quantum circuit execution. Such DD sequences yield significant improvement of the performance of the algorithm on the hardware. The performance is further boosted by combining DD with another mitigation strategy, randomized compilation. Our work demonstrated that syncopated DD is effective and practical way to suppress crosstalk in quantum circuits and serves as a great probe to characterize the crosstalk and inform hardware design.

Quantum Computing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Potential Effects of Climate Change and Solar Radiation Modification on Renewable Energy Resources

Solar radiation modification (SRM) is a possible deliberate approach to decrease or reflect incoming solar radiation with the goal of reducing global temperatures, which have increased over the last decades due to high atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Stratospheric aerosol injection, specifically, has shown potential for successfully reducing global temperatures in climate model simulations. Despite the growing literature in the areas of climate change and SRM, their combined effects on renewable energy generation, a climate change mitigation strategy, have not been addressed. In this review paper, we synthesize previous literature on the possible effects of climate change and SRM on renewable energy resources (i.e., wind energy, solar energy, biomass energy, and hydropower), review the status of climate change and SRM research, and explore potential effects of SRM on renewable energy primarily in the Continental United States (CONUS), but with global perspectives as well. We discuss the research challenges and impacts of SRM on renewable energy and conclude by discussing the potential implications of SRM for renewables for SRM governance and policy. This work is not advocating for or against SRM. It is highlighting an important potential impact for future decision makers.

Kumler, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2022

Oxygen Solubility in Aqueous Amine Solvents with Common Additives Used for CO 2 Chemical Absorption

Major sources of anthropogenic CO 2 are power generation and transportation industries where researcher continue to explore CO 2 emission mitigation strategies as applied to these CO 2 sources through carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS). The most mature CO 2 capture technology is post-combustion carbon capture (PCCC) using aqueous amine solutions/solvents, however solvent degradation and regeneration costs are slowing the widespread adoption of PCCC. Solvent degradation of the aqueous amine solutions is mainly caused from the temperature gradient between the absorber and stripper columns and common flue gas components such as SOx, NOx, and oxygen (O 2 ). The two main classifications of solvent degradation are thermal degradation, occurring when the amine reacts with itself at elevated temperatures and anaerobic conditions and oxidative degradation. Oxidative degradation reactions can occur from oxygen mass transfer and free radical oxidation. Metals, such as iron from the corrosion of steel structures used in industrial applications such as PCCC, can help to catalyze these reactions. Various oxidative degradation studies have shown how O 2 concentrations in flue gas and, to a lesser extent, temperature influence the extent of oxidative degradation. Accurately measuring the O 2 solubility, commonly referred to as dissolved oxygen (DO), in a quick, continuous, and efficient manner in aqueous amine solvents should contribute to determine the effectiveness of mitigation strategies for oxidative degradation. Knowing that commercial PCCC amine solvents contain components beyond water, amine, carbonate species and CO 2 , this investigation was conducted to determine the oxygen solubility changes of common aqueous amines solutions with commonly used and published solvent additives. The impact of carbon loadings with and without the additives was also examined. A commercial dissolved oxygen probe was used to measure the DO concentrations and compared them against standard Winkler Method titration values. The results show that antifoam shows minimal change in [DO]. MBT yielded lower DO values, and NaVO 3 showed a higher DO concentration due to interferences. These results indicate that most common amine solvent additives should be expected to minimally impact oxygen solubility and amine oxidative degradation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Long-Term Stability of Anion Exchange Membranes for Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction

Materials and cell components used in CO 2 electrolysis have largely been adapted from technologies initially developed for water electrolysis and fuel cells. However, electrochemical CO 2 reduction introduces distinct material challenges due to the unique chemical environment in this process. Here, in this study, we conducted ex-situ 1000 h stability tests on commonly used anion exchange membranes, exposing them exclusively to electrolytes and organic molecules used or produced during CO 2 electrolysis, at concentrations relevant to and compatible with postseparation processes. Notably, 15% w/w n-propanol and 5 M acetic acid caused complete dissolution or partial disintegration of the membranes unless cross-linking was present and remained stable throughout the test. When the membranes stayed physically intact, most of them exhibited excellent chemical stability in alkaline medium containing alcohols or formic acid, which was confirmed by vibrational spectroscopy and ion exchange capacity measurements. However, exposure to alcohol-and acid-containing solutions led to a substantial increase in swelling and water uptake, with potential implications for mechanical stability, ion/product crossover, and compression management of adjacent components. The potential effects of CO 2 electroreduction products on membrane stability, their subsequent impact on electrolyzer performance, and mitigation strategies are discussed.

CO2RR↗
DOE OSTI2017

Hotspots of soil N 2 O emission enhanced through water absorption by plant residue

N 2 O is a highly potent greenhouse gas and arable soils represent its major anthropogenic source. Field-scale assessments and predictions of soil N 2 O emission remain uncertain and imprecise due to the episodic and microscale nature of microbial N 2 O production, most of which occurs within very small discrete soil volumes. Such hotspots of N 2 O production are often associated with decomposing plant residue. Here we quantify physical and hydrological soil characteristics that lead to strikingly accelerated N 2 O emissions in plant residue-induced hotspots. Results reveal a mechanism for microscale N 2 O emissions: water absorption by plant residue that creates unique micro-environmental conditions, markedly different from those of the bulk soil. Moisture levels within plant residue exceeded those of bulk soil by 4–10-fold and led to accelerated N 2 O production via microbial denitrification. The presence of large (Ø >35 μm) pores was a prerequisite for maximized hotspot N 2 O production and for subsequent diffusion to the atmosphere. Understanding and modelling hotspot microscale physical and hydrologic characteristics is a promising route to predict N 2 O emissions and thus to develop effective mitigation strategies and estimate global fluxes in a changing environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

DESCQA: An Automated Validation Framework for Synthetic Sky Catalogs

The use of high-quality simulated sky catalogs is essential for the success of cosmological surveys. The catalogs have diverse applications, such as investigating signatures of fundamental physics in cosmological observables, understanding the effect of systematic uncertainties on measured signals and testing mitigation strategies for reducing these uncertainties, aiding analysis pipeline development and testing, and survey strategy optimization. The list of applications is growing with improvements in the quality of the catalogs and the details that they can provide. Given the importance of simulated catalogs, it is critical to provide rigorous validation protocols that enable both catalog providers and users to assess the quality of the catalogs in a straightforward and comprehensive way. For this purpose, we have developed the DESCQA framework for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Dark Energy Science Collaboration as well as for the broader community. The goal of DESCQA is to enable the inspection, validation, and comparison of an inhomogeneous set of synthetic catalogs via the provision of a common interface within an automated framework. Here in this paper, we present the design concept and first implementation of DESCQA. In order to establish and demonstrate its full functionality we use a set of interim catalogs and validation tests. We highlight several important aspects, both technical and scientific, that require thoughtful consideration when designing a validation framework, including validation metrics and how these metrics impose requirements on the synthetic sky catalogs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Antimicrobial Resistance Using Partial Genome Alignments

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an important global health threat that impacts millions of people worldwide each year. Developing methods that can detect and predict AMR phenotypes can help to mitigate the spread of AMR by informing clinical decision making and appropriate mitigation strategies. Many bioinformatic methods have been developed for predicting AMR phenotypes from whole-genome sequences and AMR genes, but recent studies have indicated that predictions can be made from incomplete genome sequence data. In order to more systematically understand this, we built random forest-based machine learning classifiers for predicting susceptible and resistant phenotypes for Klebsiella pneumoniae (1,640 strains), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (2,497 strains), and Salmonella enterica (1,981 strains). We started by building models from alignments that were based on a reference chromosome for each species. We then subsampled each chromosomal alignment and built models for the resulting subalignments, finding that very small regions, representing approximately 0.1 to 0.2% of the chromosome, are predictive. In K. pneumoniae, M. tuberculosis, and S. enterica, the subalignments are able to predict multiple AMR phenotypes with at least 70% accuracy, even though most do not encode an AMR-related function. We used these models to identify regions of the chromosome with high and low predictive signals. Finally, subalignments that retain high accuracy across larger phylogenetic distances were examined in greater detail, revealing genes and intergenic regions with potential links to AMR, virulence, transport, and survival under stress conditions. IMPORTANCE Antimicrobial resistance causes thousands of deaths annually worldwide. Understanding the regions of the genome that are involved in antimicrobial resistance is important for developing mitigation strategies and preventing transmission. Machine learning models are capable of predicting antimicrobial resistance phenotypes from bacterial genome sequence data by identifying resistance genes, mutations, and other correlated features. They are also capable of implicating regions of the genome that have not been previously characterized as being involved in resistance. In this study, we generated global chromosomal alignments for Klebsiella pneumoniae, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and Salmonella enterica and systematically searched them for small conserved regions of the genome that enable the prediction of antimicrobial resistance phenotypes. In addition to known antimicrobial resistance genes, this analysis identified genes involved in virulence and transport functions, as well as many genes with no previous implication in antimicrobial resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Assessment of landscape-scale fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane in subtropical coastal wetlands of South Florida

Coastal wetlands play a significant role in the storage of “blue carbon,” indicating their importance in the carbon biogeochemistry in the coastal zone and in global climate change mitigation strategies. We present airborne eddy covariance observations of CO 2 and CH 2 fluxes collected in southern Florida as part of the NASA BlueFlux mission during April 2022, October 2022, February 2023, and April 2023. The flux data generated from this mission consists of over 100 flight hours and more than 6,000 km of horizontal distance over coastal saline and freshwater wetlands. We find that the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in CO 2 and CH 2 exchange is primarily influenced by season, vegetation type, ecosystem productivity, and soil inundation. The largest CO 2 uptake fluxes of more than 20 μmol m -2 s -1 were observed over mangroves during all deployments and over swamp forests during flights in April. The greatest CH 4 effluxes of more than 250 nmol m -2 s -1 were measured at the end of the wet season in October 2022 over freshwater marshes and swamp shrublands. Although the combined Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve region was a net sink for carbon, CH 4 emissions reduced the ecosystem carbon uptake capacity (net CO 2 exchange rates) by 11%–91%. Average total net carbon exchange rates during the flight periods were −4 to −0.2 g CO 2 -eq m -2 d -1 . Our results highlight the importance of preserving mangrove forests and point to potential avenues of further research for greenhouse gas mitigation strategies.

atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Modeling Framework for Evaluating the Drought Resilience of a Surface Water Supply System under Non-stationarity

The future resilience of water supply systems is unprecedentedly challenged by non-stationary processes, such as fast population growth and a changing climate. A thorough understanding of how these non-stationarities impact water supply resilience is vital to support sustainable decision making, particularly for large cities in arid and/or semi-arid regions. In this study, a novel modeling framework, which integrates hydrological processes and water management, was established over a representative water limited metropolitan area to evaluate the impacts of water availability and water demand on reservoir storage and water supply reliability. In this framework, climate change induced drought events were selected from statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, while future water demand was estimated by the product of projected future population and per capita water use. Compared with the first half of the 21st century (2000–2049), reservoir storage and water supply reliability during the second half century (2050–2099) are projected to reduce by 16.1% and 14.2%, respectively. While both future multi-year droughts and population growth will lower water supply resilience, the uncertainty associated with future climate projection is larger than that associated with urbanization. To reduce the drought risks, a combination of mitigation strategies (e.g., additional conservation, integrating new water sources, and water use redistribution) was found to be the most efficient approach and can significantly improve water supply reliability by as much as 15.9%.

Zhao, Gang (ORCID:0000000327370530)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Socioeconomic and atmospheric factors affecting aerosol radiative forcing: Production-based versus consumption-based perspective

There exist substantial differences in top-of-atmosphere direct radiative forcing of aerosols due to a region's economic production (RFp) and consumption (RFc), in the context of economic globalization, trade and globalizing air pollution. Yet an explicit systematic analysis of all socioeconomic and atmospheric factors determining the RF difference is lacking. Here, we evaluate five socioeconomic (population, per capita output, emission intensity) and atmospheric (chemical efficiency and radiative efficiency) factors that determine a region's RFp, RFc and their difference. We consider the RF of secondary inorganic aerosols, primary organic aerosols and black carbon by 10 regions worldwide in 2007. The population size varies by a factor of nine across the regions, and per capita output by 40 times from both production- and consumption-based perspectives. The cross-regional spread reaches a factor of 181 (species dependent) for production-based emission intensity and a factor of 96 for consumption-based intensity. From one region to another, production-based chemical efficiency changes within a factor of 5 and consumption-based efficiency within a factor of 3.5. Radiative efficiency varies slightly across the regions (within 2) from both production- and consumption-based perspectives. Although socioeconomic factors are often a greater driver for the difference between a source region's RFp and RFc, the atmospheric factors are also important for many source regions and species. Our results contribute to regional attribution of climate change and establishment of effective international collaborative mitigation strategies.

aerosol radiative forcing↗