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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15

Battery State of Health Estimator: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report

NREL has developed a software tool to enable Renewance to estimate the degradation of batteries from basic information such as the type of battery and the application of that battery during its first life, so that used batteries may be evaluated for potential repurposing at low cost. This software tool utilizes NREL's BLAST-Lite battery degradation modeling code, which was updated with additional models for commercially produced lithium-ion batteries as a part of this CRADA. The software tool enables users to input details such as battery type and application so that lifetime estimates can be made without any programming or expert battery knowledge. The application input loads in saved values for parameters such as cycles per year, depth-of-discharge, and other battery operating parameters from a file defined by Renewance. These parameters may be modified to refine simulations for specific batteries. The software tool also incorporates a degradation model optimization tool, whereby existing battery degradation models may be tuned according to measured battery health. This ensures that new models still predict degradation behaviors expected from a certain battery chemistry, but with the overall degradation rate tuned to a specific battery make and model. The new model can then be saved for estimating the degradation of other similar batteries. An additional task was planned to utilize machine-learning to enable battery health diagnosis from rapid EIS measurements to accelerate the screening of used batteries. This task was not completed due to lack of available data for training a machine-learning model. CRADA benefit to DOE, Participant, and US Taxpayer: Further development of open-source software tool BLAST-Lite for predicting the lifetime of commercially produced Lithium-ion batteries (NREL SWR-22-69).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Perspective on Traditional and Data Driven Electrochemical Modeling and Analysis

To understand the behavior of electrochemical systems, we need to reduce the dimensionality of the measured current-voltage-time (I-V-t) data by fitting models, thus enabling us to analyze and compare the governing physics. Traditionally, the process for this is an 'expert first' approach: defining the model and its explicit assumptions based on inductive reasoning or empirical observation, fitting small portions of the I-V-t data where assumptions are most valid or carefully designing experiments to enforce key assumptions, and then interpreting the model parameters. However, modern data-driven methods enable a new paradigm: a 'data first' approach, where the latent behaviors governing the system's measured response are identified directly using machine-learning models that optimize both model structure and parameters from the I-V-t data, guaranteeing that the learned model explains as much of the observed system response as possible. After model identification, the model can then be interrogated by an expert to connect observed behaviors with underlying physics. This talk will review several different types of electrochemical analysis (electrochemical impedance, differential voltage-capacity, electrochemical kinetics) and compare the traditional and data-driven methods for analyzing the data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of physics-consistent conditional diffusion model to overcome data scarcity in critical heat flux

Deep generative modeling provides a powerful pathway to overcome data scarcity in energy-related applications where experimental data are often limited. By learning the underlying probability distribution of the training dataset, deep generative models, such as the diffusion model, can generate high-fidelity synthetic samples that statistically resemble the training data. Such synthetic data generation can significantly enrich the size and diversity of the available training data, and more importantly, improve the robustness of downstream machine learning models in predictive tasks. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of diffusion models for overcoming data scarcity in nuclear energy applications. By leveraging a public dataset on critical heat flux which covers a wide range of commercial nuclear reactor operational conditions, we developed a diffusion model that can generate an arbitrary amount of synthetic samples. Since a vanilla diffusion model can only generate samples randomly, we also developed a conditional diffusion model capable of generating targeted critical heat flux data under user-specified thermal-hydraulic conditions. The performance of the diffusion model was evaluated based on its ability to capture empirical feature distributions and pair-wise correlations, as well as to maintain physical consistency. The results showed that both the diffusion model and conditional diffusion model can successfully generate realistic and physics-consistent critical heat flux data. Furthermore, uncertainty quantification results demonstrate that the conditional diffusion model is highly effective in augmenting critical heat flux data while maintaining acceptable levels of uncertainty.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗

Application of Modified Meshgraphnets for Subsurface Prediction during CO2 Sequestration

In the face of the increasingly dire consequences of anthropogenic climate change, capturing and storing carbon dioxide is paramount. However, several impediments exist to the safe and effective subsurface storage of CO2, such as cost of transport, identification of suitable sites for subsurface storage, and assessment of long-term risk from storage in subsurface aquifers. Accurate subsurface modeling is necessary to ensure that CO2 storage is both safe and effective. Still, such modeling has traditionally required either substantial time and computational power (numerical simulation) or a substantial amount of pre-existing data for training (machine learning models). Additionally, these models lack flexibility in dealing with both changes in discretization of the input data and generalizability beyond the data on which they are trained. In order to address these issues, this research applies graph neural networks (GNNs) to predict subsurface saturation and pressure during CO₂ injection in a model of the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP). GNNs provide a flexible, intuitive method for representing and manipulating complex unstructured data, which is often found in many practical domain problems such as fluid flow and subsurface characterization. These unstructured grids are easily represented in GNNs by representing spatially-localized features such as permeability, porosity, saturation, and pressure as nodes in a graph and relationships between these properties as edges connecting these nodes. This research applies a specific GNN model called MeshGraphNets (MGN) to model the change in CO2 saturation and pressure over a 50-month time period (36 months of injection, 14 months post-injection). The MGN model leverages a message passing process that allows the network to learn both the spatial and temporal dynamics of this system simultaneously. Additionally, training on a limited dataset (64 realizations, 20 time points each) resulted in a high degree of accuracy in saturation prediction both within the same timeframe as the training (20 months, 0.039 average RMSE) and when projecting out to the end of injection (36 months, 0.053 average RMSE). Temporal predictions such as those generated by MGNs and other similar models are prone to accumulated error over time; in order to address this, a multi-step rollout (MSR) training process was applied to calculate training loss. This method mimics the forward prediction during inference by “rolling out” multiple time points in a single training step using the previous prediction as input to the MGN model. By calculating the loss several time steps forward from the current prediction, the model is forced to find a more stable state over time. Application of MSR to the MGN model resulted in an average 15% reduction in inference error over time during forward prediction. This study showcases the immense potential of GNNs as a game-changing methodology for predicting pressure and saturation evolution in CCS projects, ultimately paving the way for more sustainable and effective carbon storage solutions. Presentation prepared for the 2024 AiChE Annual Meeting, October 27 to November 1 2024, San Diego, CA.

Holcomb, Paul↗

PopGNN: Graph Neural Network-Based Flexible Future Population Forecasting Model

Accurate population forecasts is important to plan critical infrastructure and services, from housing and education to healthcare and transport. However, traditional population prediction studies have only employed traditional machine learning models limited to capture complex spatial interdependencies and patterns. Althogh recently computer vision-based framework was introduced with with promising accuracy, it has critical limitations for real-world planning applications: it function only at fixed spatial resolutions, restricting their use in diverse boundaries such as census tracts, neighborhoods, or administrative zones. Therefore, this study suggests a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based population prediction framework, called PopGNN. This model recorded remarkable performance compared with state-of-the-art models and traditional baseline models in the grid and administrative boundaries. Furthermore, our framework achieved comparable predictive accuracy to a computer vision-based model in both the South Korea and Tennessee case studies. Consequently, this study is valuable in that a single model can provide accurate population forecasts that address diverse planning demands, ranging from granular grid-level estimates for precise service allocation and facility location planning to aggregate administrative-level forecasts for macro-scale regional policy and resource distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Developing machine learning for heterogeneous catalysis with experimental and computational data

Machine learning techniques have emerged as a useful tool for identifying complex patterns and correlations in large datasets, such as associating catalyst performance to its physicochemical properties. In the heterogeneous catalysis communities, machine learning models have mostly been developed using high-throughput quantum chemistry calculations, with only a few case studies resulting in experimentally validated catalyst improvements. This limited success may be due to the use of simplified catalyst structures in computational studies and the lack of comprehensive experimental datasets. In this Review, we bring together studies integrating high-throughput approaches and machine learning for the advancement of solid heterogeneous catalysis, leveraging both experimental and computational data. We systematically analyze trends in the field, based on the descriptors used as model input and output; the materials, devices, or reactions investigated; the dataset size; and the overall achievements. Furthermore, for models reporting unitless R 2 values, we compare the performances based on these mentioned trends.

Computational chemistry↗

The ab initio non-crystalline structure database: empowering machine learning to decode diffusivity

Non-crystalline materials exhibit unique properties that make them suitable for various applications in science and technology, ranging from optical and electronic devices and solid-state batteries to protective coatings. However, data-driven exploration and design of non-crystalline materials is hampered by the absence of a comprehensive database covering a broad chemical space. In this work, we present the largest computed non-crystalline structure database to date, generated from systematic and accurate ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) calculations. We also show how the database can be used in simple machine-learning models to connect properties to composition and structure, here specifically targeting ionic conductivity. These models predict the Li-ion diffusivity with speed and accuracy, offering a cost-effective alternative to expensive density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Furthermore, the process of computational quenching non-crystalline structures provides a unique sampling of out-of-equilibrium structures, energies, and force landscape, and we anticipate that the corresponding trajectories will inform future work in universal machine learning potentials, impacting design beyond that of non-crystalline materials. In addition, combining diffusion trajectories from our dataset with models that predict liquidus viscosity and melting temperature could be utilized to develop models for predicting glass-forming ability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SIGHT: Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies for Inferring Building Characteristics

Building characteristics are often absent in building stock datasets, particularly in regions most vulnerable to climate change and requiring effective disaster management strategies. Traditional machine learning approaches, while widely used to predict building attributes, typically neglect the spatial context of the data, leading to less accurate and reliable outcomes. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel algorithm, the Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies. This algorithm adapts a meta-learning framework to incorporate geospatial context into the predictive modeling process. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm through two primary use cases: building use type classification and building height prediction. The algorithm consistently achieved or exceeded a 0.94 macro average F1 score across five geographically distinct countries for building use type classification. For building height prediction, it accurately predicted heights with a root mean square error of 3.01 in a comprehensive study using roughly 3.6 million buildings in Japan. These results underscore the benefits of integrating spatial hierarchies into machine learning models, enhancing both predictive accuracy and reliability in geospatial modeling. This work introduces a new algorithm to address the pervasive data sparsity issue in existing building stock datasets.

Adams, Daniel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000196950577)↗

The high explosives & affected targets (HEAT) dataset

Artificial Intelligence (AI) surrogate models offer a computationally efficient alternative to full-physics simulations, yet no existing datasets are publicly available for training, testing, and validation of machine learning models of the dynamics of high-explosive driven shocks through multiple materials. Shock propagation through materials is a computationally challenging problem because simulations must include material-specific equations of state (EOS) along with descriptions of other physical processes such as plastic deformation, phase change, damage processes, fluid instabilities, and multi-material interactions. Shocks are typically initiated by high-velocity impacts or explosive loading. The latter case necessitates the addition of models of reactive materials to represent high-explosive (HE) detonation. Here, to address the lack of an expansive dataset for multi-material shock propagation in the AI/ML community, we present the High-Explosives and Affected Targets (HEAT) Dataset. HEAT is a physics-rich collection of two-dimensional, cylindrically symmetric, simulations generated using an Eulerian, multi-material, shock-propagation code developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The dataset includes two partitions: (1) the expanding shock-cylinder (CYL) simulations, Figs. 1, and (2) the Perturbed Layered Interface (PLI) simulations, Fig. 2. Entries in both partitions consist of time series of arrays of thermodynamic fields (pressure, density, and temperature), kinematic fields (position and velocity), and additional fields that depend on thermodynamic and/or kinematic fields (e.g., material stress). Materials in the CYL partition include solids (aluminium, copper, depleted uranium, stainless steel, tantalum, and a generic polymer), a liquid (water), gases (air, nitrogen), and a generic detonating material (high explosive, HE). The PLI partition spans a highly varying geometry but consists of fixed materials across entries: Copper, aluminium, stainless steel, generic polymer, and generic HE. HEAT captures critical phenomena such as momentum transfer, shock propagation, plastic deformation, and thermal effects, making HEAT a valuable benchmark for development of AI/ML emulation of multi-material shock propagation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Large Language Model for Determining Partial Tripping of Distributed Energy Resources

Knowing the status of individual distributed energy resources, i.e., being tripped or not, after a contingency can inform the development of an aggregated DER model. Here, this letter presents a large language model application to determine the partial tripping of distributed energy resources depending on the types, locations, and duration of faults in the transmission network. The large language model, or more specifically BERT-based approach can streamline the fault information into tokenized input, which not only reduces the complexity of the machine learning model but also demonstrates a robust performance with only limited data sets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrating Analytical Solutions and U-Net Model for Predicting Groundwater Contaminant Plumes in Pump-and-Treat Systems

Pump-and-treat (P&T) is a common technique for groundwater remediation involving the extraction and treatment of contaminated water above ground. Optimizing the design and operation of the P&T well network is essential for maximizing the system’s effectiveness and efficiency. However, this optimization often necessitates many model evaluations, leading to computationally demanding tasks. This study introduces a novel approach that integrates analytical solutions for groundwater dynamics with the U-Net (Ronneberger et al., 2015) deep learning framework to predict groundwater contaminant plume migration under dynamic pumping conditions. By incorporating the Thiem equation (Thiem, 1906) into the input preprocessing, the U-Net model transforms sparse well data into a continuous spatial field that captures the hydraulic impacts of pumping activities. This integration enables the model to leverage both deep learning capabilities and classical physics-based groundwater theories, enhancing prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. These advancements can facilitate rapid, large-scale evaluations of P&T optimization simulations, allowing for timely and effective decision-making in well placement and system management. We demonstrate the model's robust performance across both simplified transient 2D models and a more complex 3D heterogeneous site model at the 200 West P&T facility at the Hanford Site. The U-Net-based model offers substantial computational advantages, reducing simulation times significantly compared to full physics-based models and providing a powerful tool for rapid site evaluation and P&T system optimization, such as evaluating alternative P&T well network designs. Our findings highlight the potential of advanced machine learning models to significantly enhance the efficiency and sustainability of groundwater remediation efforts, offering a novel application of U-Net architecture in environmental science.

Pump-and-treat↗

Next generation Arctic vegetation maps: Aboveground plant biomass and woody dominance mapped at 30 m resolution across the tundra biome

The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, placing tundra ecosystems at the forefront of global climate change. Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to changes in climate, closely tied to ecological function, and crucial for constraining ecosystem carbon dynamics. However, the amount, functional composition, and distribution of plant biomass are only coarsely quantified across the Arctic. Therefore, we developed the first moderate resolution (30 m) maps of live aboveground plant biomass (g m −2 ) and woody plant dominance (%) for the Arctic tundra biome, including the mountainous Oro Arctic. We modeled biomass for the year 2020 using a new synthesis dataset of field biomass harvest measurements, Landsat satellite seasonal synthetic composites, ancillary geospatial data, and machine learning models. Additionally, we quantified pixel-wise uncertainty in biomass predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and validated the models using a robust, spatially blocked and nested cross-validation procedure. Observed plant and woody plant biomass values ranged from 0 to ∼6000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 350 g m −2 ), while predicted values ranged from 0 to ∼4000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 275 g m −2 ), resulting in model validation root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) ≈ 400 g m −2 and R 2 ≈ 0.6. Our maps not only capture large-scale patterns of plant biomass and woody plant dominance across the Arctic that are linked to climatic variation (e.g., thawing degree days), but also illustrate how fine-scale patterns are shaped by local surface hydrology, topography, and past disturbance. By providing data on plant biomass across Arctic tundra ecosystems at the highest resolution to date, our maps can significantly advance research and inform decision-making on topics ranging from Arctic vegetation monitoring and wildlife conservation to carbon accounting and land surface modeling.

Climate change↗

Prediction of Dielectric Constant in Series of Polymers by Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR)

This work is devoted to the investigation of dielectric permittivity which is influenced by electronic, ionic, and dipolar polarization mechanisms, contributing to the material’s capacity to store electrical energy. In this study, an extended dataset of 86 polymers was analyzed, and two quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) models were developed to predict dielectric permittivity. From an initial set of 1273 descriptors, the most relevant ones were selected using a genetic algorithm, and machine learning models were built using the Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR). In contrast to Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)- and Partial Least Squares (PLS)-based models, the gradient boosting models excel in handling nonlinear relationships and multicollinearity, iteratively optimizing decision trees to improve accuracy without overfitting. The developed GBR models showed high R2 coefficients of 0.938 and 0.822, for the training and test sets, respectively. An Accumulated Local Effect (ALE) technique was applied to assess the relationship between the selected descriptors—eight for the GB_A model and six for the GB_B model, and their impact on target property. ALE analysis revealed that descriptors such as TDB09m had a strong positive effect on permittivity, while MLOGP2 showed a negative effect. These results highlight the effectiveness of the GBR approach in predicting the dielectric properties of polymers, offering improved accuracy and interpretability.

Ascencio-Medina, Estefania↗

Combining physics-based and data-driven models for quantitatively accurate plasma profile prediction that extrapolates well; with application to DIII-D, AUG, and ITER tokamaks

For design, scenario planning, and control, ITER and all other envisioned tokamaks rely on a variety of statistical and physics-based models to extrapolate to unseen regimes; most notably from low plasma current to high. A 'meta-learning' methodology for combining the accuracy of data-driven models with the generalizability of physics-based models is described and tested, yielding a 5–10 percent improvement in performance beyond either alone for the task of extrapolating time-dependent plasma profile prediction from low- to high- plasma current DIII-D tokamak discharges. Meanwhile, it is shown that both machine learning models extrapolated far-distribution and state-of-the-art 'physics-based' profile predictors fare worse than merely assuming plasma profiles do not change from their initial values. Finally, a variety of other mechanisms for helping data-driven models generalize—transfer learning, adding contextual information from physics simulators, and adding data from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak—are attempted for similar extrapolation tasks but, in the methodology used in this paper, yield no significant improvement beyond simple data-driven models. Results are summarized in figures 15 and 16.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Morphological Model to Separate Resolved–Unresolved Sources in the DESI Legacy Surveys: Application in the LS4 Alert Stream

Separating resolved and unresolved sources in large imaging surveys is a fundamental step to enable downstream science, such as searching for extragalactic transients in wide-field time-domain surveys. Here we present our method to effectively separate point sources from the resolved, extended sources in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Surveys (LS). We develop a supervised machine learning model based on the Gradient Boosting algorithm XGBoost. The features input to the model are purely morphological and are derived from the tabulated LS data products. We train the model using ∼2 × 10 5 LS sources in the COSMOS field with HST morphological labels and evaluate the model performance on LS sources with spectroscopic classification from the DESI Data Release 1 (∼2 × 10 7 objects) and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 17 (∼3 × 10 6 objects), as well as on ∼2 × 10 8 Gaia stars. A significant fraction of LS sources are not observed in every LS filter, and we therefore build a “Hybrid” model as a linear combination of two XGBoost models, each containing features combining aperture flux measurements from the “blue” (gr) and “red” (iz) filters. The Hybrid model shows a reasonable balance between sensitivity and robustness, and achieves higher accuracy and flexibility compared to the LS morphological typing. With the Hybrid model, we provide classification scores for ∼3 × 10 9 LS sources, making this the largest ever machine learning catalog separating resolved and unresolved sources. The catalog has been incorporated into the real-time pipeline of the La Silla Schmidt Southern Survey (LS4), enabling the identification of extragalactic transients within the LS4 alert stream.

astrostatistics↗

Density Functional Tight-Binding Models for Band Structures of Transition-Metal Alloys and Surfaces across the d -Block

First-principles electronic structure simulations are an invaluable tool for understanding chemical bonding and reactions. While machine-learning models such as interatomic potentials significantly accelerate the exploration of potential energy surfaces, electronic structure information is generally lost. Particularly in the field of heterogeneous catalysis, simulated electron band structures provide fundamental insights into catalytic reactivity. This ab initio knowledge is preserved in semiempirical methods such as density functional tight binding (DFTB), which extend the accessible computational length and time scales beyond first-principles approaches. In this paper here we present Shell-Optimized Atomic Confinement (SOAC) DFTB electronic-part-only parametrizations for bulk and surface band structures of all d-block transition metals that enable efficient predictions of electronic descriptors for large structures or high-throughput studies on complex systems outside the computational reach of density functional theory.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Tokamak divertor plasma emulation with machine learning

Abstract Future tokamak devices that aim to create conditions relevant to power plant operations must consider strategies for mitigating damage to plasma facing components in the divertor. One of the goals of MAST-U tokamak operations is to inform these considerations by researching advanced divertor configurations that aid stable plasma detachment. Machine design, scenario planning and detachment control would all greatly benefit from tools that enable rapid calculation of scenario-relevant quantities given some input parameters. This paper presents a method for generating large, simulated scrape-off layer data sets, which was applied to generate a data set of steady-state Hermes-3 simulations of the MAST-U tokamak. A machine learning model was constructed using a Bayesian approach to hyperparameter optimisation to predict diagnosable output quantities given control-relevant input features. The resulting best-performing model, which is based on a feedforward neural network, achieves high accuracy when predicting electron temperature at the divertor target and carbon impurity radiation front position and runs in around 1 ms in inference mode. Techniques for interpreting the predictions made by the model were applied, and a high-resolution parameter scan of upstream conditions was performed to demonstrate the utility of rapidly generating accurate predictions using the emulator. This work represents a step forward in the design of machine learning-driven emulators of tokamak exhaust simulation codes in operational modes relevant to divertor detachment control and plasma scenario design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗