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At least 271 records · Page 15

Earth Science Deep Learning: Applications and Lessons Learned

Deep Learning: A subfield of machine learning; Algorithms inspired by function of the brain; Scales with amount of training data; Powerful tool without the need for feature engineering; Suitable for Earth Science applications. Deep Learning for Earth science at MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center): Phenomena identification; Hurricane intensity (wind speed) estimation; Severe storm (hailstorm) detection; Transverse bands detection; Entity extraction for knowledge graph creation; Ephemeral water detection.

Labeled Data

Evaluation of Classifier Complexity for Delay Tolerant Network Routing

The growing popularity of small cost effective satellites (SmallSats, CubeSats, etc.) creates the potential for a variety of new science applications involving multiple nodes functioning together or independently to achieve a task, such as swarms and constellations. As this technology develops and is deployed for missions in Low Earth Orbit and beyond, the use of delay tolerant networking (DTN) techniques may improve communication capabilities within the network. In this paper, a network hierarchy is developed from heterogeneous networks of SmallSats, surface vehicles, relay satellites and ground stations which form an integrated network. There is a tradeoff between complexity, flexibility, and scalability of user defined schedules versus autonomous routing as the number of nodes in the network increases. To address these issues, this work proposes a machine learning classifier based on DTN routing metrics. A framework is developed which will allow for the use of several categories of machine learning algorithms (decision tree, random forest and deep learning) to be applied to a dataset of historical network statistics, which allows for the evaluation of algorithm complexity versus performance to be explored. We develop the emulation of a hierarchical network, consisting of tens of nodes which form a cognitive network architecture. CORE (Common Open Research Emulator) is used to emulate the network using bundle protocol and DTN IP neighbor discovery.

Dudukovich, Rachel

Prediction of Pushback Times and Ramp Taxi Times for Departures at Charlotte Airport

When optimizing the takeoff sequence and schedule for departures at busy airports, it is important to accurately predict the taxi times from gate to runway because those are used to calculate the earliest possible takeoff times. Several airports like Charlotte Douglas International Airport show relatively long taxi times inside the ramp area with large variations, with respect to the travel times in the airport movement area. Also, the pushback process times have not been accurately modeled so far mainly due to the lack of accurate data. The recent deployment of the integrated arrival, departure, and surface traffic management system at Charlotte airport by NASA enables more accurate flight data in the airport surface operations to be obtained. Taking advantage of this system, actual pushback times and ramp taxi times from historical flight data at this airport are analyzed. Based on the analysis, a simple, data-driven prediction model is introduced for estimating pushback times and ramp transit times of individual departure flights. To evaluate the performance of this prediction model, several machine learning techniques are also applied to the same dataset. The prediction results show that the data-driven prediction model is as good as the machine learning algorithms when comparing various prediction performance metrics.

Lee, Hanbong

Using Machine-Learning to Dynamically Generate Operationally Acceptable Strategic Reroute Options

The newly developed Trajectory Option Set (TOS), a preference-weighted set of alternative routes submitted by flight operators, is a capability in the U.S. traffic flow management system that enables automated trajectory negotiation between flight operators and Air Navigation Service Providers. The objective of this paper is to describe and demonstrate an approach for automatically generating pre-departure and airborne TOSs that have a high probability of operational acceptance. The approach uses hierarchical clustering of historical route data to identify route candidates. The probability of operational acceptance is then estimated using predictors trained on historical flight plan amendment data using supervised machine learning algorithms, allowing the routes with highest probability of operational acceptance to be selected for the TOS. Features used describe historical route usage, difference in flight time and downstream demand to capacity imbalance. A random forest was found to be the best performing algorithm for learning operational acceptability, with a model accuracy of 0.96. The approach is demonstrated for an historical pre-departure flight from Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport to Newark Liberty International Airport.

Evans, Antony

Using Machine-Learning to Dynamically Generate Operationally Acceptable Strategic Reroute Options

The newly developed Trajectory Option Set (TOS), a preference-weighted set of alternative routes submitted by flight operators, is a capability in the U.S. traffic flow management system that enables automated trajectory negotiation between flight operators and Air Navigation Service Providers. The objective of this paper is to describe and demonstrate an approach for automatically generating pre-departure and airborne TOSs that have a high probability of operational acceptance. The approach uses hierarchical clustering of historical route data to identify route candidates. The probability of operational acceptance is then estimated using predictors trained on historical flight plan amendment data using supervised machine learning algorithms, allowing the routes with highest probability of operational acceptance to be selected for the TOS. Features used describe historical route usage, difference in flight time and downstream demand to capacity imbalance. A random forest was found to be the best performing algorithm for learning operational acceptability, with a model accuracy of 0.96. The approach is demonstrated for an historical pre-departure flight from Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport to Newark Liberty International Airport.

Evans, Antony

Cluster Analysis of Spectroscopic Line Profiles and EUV Emission in RMHD Simulations and Observations of the Solar Atmosphere

Spatially-resolved observations from the IRIS, SDO/AIA, and other space mission and ground-based telescopes, coupled with realistic 3D RMHD simulations, are a powerful tool for analysis of processes in the solar atmosphere. To better understand the dynamical and thermodynamic properties in the simulation data and their connection to observations, it is essential to determine similarities in the behaviors of the synthesized and observed emission. However, the complexity of observational data and physical processes makes comparison of observations and modeling results difficult. In this work, we show the initial results of application of K-Means clustering (unsupervised machine learning) algorithm to two different problems: 1) recognition of the typical spectroscopic line profiles observed by IRIS during solar flares and their typical dynamic behavior; 2) recognition of shocks and heating events in synthetic AIA emission data obtained from StellarBox quiet-Sun simulations. The average silhouette width technique for the KMeans algorithm is utilized in different ways to obtain optimal numbers of clusters. We discuss application of the emission clustering to visualizations of the computational volume, understanding its evolutionary trends and behavior patterns, and inversion (reconstruction) of physical properties of the solar atmosphere from synthesizes emission data.

Sadykov, Viacheslav

A 3D Citizen Science Video Game for NeMO-Net, the NASA Neural Multi-Modal Observation and Training Network for Global Coral Reef Assessment

NeMO-Net, the NASA neural multi-modal observation and training network for global coral reef assessment, is an open-source deep convolutional neural network aimed at accurately assessing the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems through determination of percent living cover and morphology. We present here the active learning component of the project, which consists of an interactive video game prototype for tablet and mobile devices where players are able to intuitively label morphology classifications over mm-scale 3D coral reef imagery. Active learning applications present a novel methodology for engaging the public while efficiently providing large-scale training and test data for increasingly complex and data-intensive machine learning algorithms. NeMO-Net trains players on domain-specific knowledge through interactive tutorials and periodically checks players' input against pre-classified coral imagery to gauge their accuracy and utilize in-game mechanics to provide personalized classification training. Players can rate the classifications of other players, unlock rewards and join a global community as they explore and classify coral reefs and other shallow marine environments.

Citizen Science

Medical Data Architecture Prototype Development - Summary of Recent Work and Proposed Ideas for Upcoming Work

The Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project supports the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) risk to minimize or reduce the risk of adverse health outcomes and decrements in performance due to in-flight medical capabilities on human exploration missions. To mitigate this risk, the ExMC MDA project addresses the technical limitations identified in ExMC Gap Med 07: We do not have the capability to comprehensively process medically-relevant information to support medical operations during exploration missions, and in ExMC Gap Med 10: We do not have the capability to provide computed medical decision support during exploration missions. These gaps recognize the need for a comprehensive medical data management system and the accompanying computational support to provide autonomous medical care during long duration exploration missions. As the MDA matures—including the capability to comprehensively process and discover medically-relevant information to support medical operations during exploration missions—project focus will shift to maturing and extending the MDA platform to enable clinical decision support and real-time guidance. To date, the MDA foundational architecture has recommended exploration medical system Level of Care IV requirements through a series of test bed prototype developments and analog demonstrations. The next stage in the development will focus on more autonomous clinical decision making necessary to address challenges in executing a self-contained medical system that enables health care both with and without assistance from ground support. A thorough understanding of current state of medical decision support systems, advanced machine learning algorithms and vast and varied data sources is required. The development of a clinical decision support for exploration missions (Level of Care V) roadmap is needed: one that assesses of current state of the art of clinical decision support systems (CDSS), interoperability issues, identification of challenges in health and performance monitoring, obtaining and processing information from biosensors, knowledge and data management, data integration and fusion, and advanced algorithm development. This roadmap must also include rapid prototype development in the areas of data processing, advanced analysis and prediction of medical events, and treatment based on medically relevant information processing and evidence-based best practices. In this presentation, an overview of the relevant issues and the beginning framework of a Level of Care V CDSS development roadmap will be provided.

Krihak, M.

Impact of Advanced Synoptics and Simplified Checklists During Aircraft Systems Failures

Abstract—Natural human capacities are becoming increasingly mismatched to the enormous data volumes, processing capabilities, and decision speeds demanded in today’s aviation environment. Increasingly Autonomous Systems (IAS) are uniquely suited to solve this problem. NASA is conducting research and development of IAS - hardware and software systems, utilizing machine learning algorithms, seamlessly integrated with humans whereby task performance of the combined system is significantly greater than the individual components. IAS offer the potential for significantly improved levels of performance and safety that are superior to either human or automation alone. A human-in-the-loop test was conducted in NASA Langley’s Integration Flight Deck B-737-800 simulator to evaluate advanced synoptic pages with simplified interactive electronic checklists as an IAS for routine air carrier flight operations and in response to aircraft system failures. Twelve U.S. airline crews flew various normal and non-normal procedures and their actions and performance were recorded in response to failures. These data are fundamental to and critical for the design and development of future increasingly autonomous systems that can better support the human in the cockpit. Synoptic pages and electronic checklists significantly improved pilot responses to non-normal scenarios, but implementation of these aids and other intelligent assistants have barriers to implementation (e.g., certification cost) that must overcome.

Etherington, Timothy J.

Analyzing Natural Language Context in Human-Machine Teaming using Supervised Machine Learning

Building a foundation for trustworthiness and trust verification in multi-asset teaming is the research challenge of Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR). The Design Reference Mission (DRM) for ATTRACTOR is a search and rescue mission objective governed by a multi-member team consisting of human and machine operators. A crucial component to the effort is the communication between humans and autonomous agents throughout both planning and execution stages of the mission. Intuitive communication methods and modalities are posited as critical enablers for certifying trust and trustworthiness. This paper reports on the data collection and analysis conducted in support of the Human Informed Natural-language GANs Evaluation (HINGE)project to attain explainable and trusted communication between human-machine assets. Two identically curated image description datasets were acquired for HINGE, both consisting of two unique input modalities (typed vs. verbal) and retrieved in two distinct contexts (general vs. specific). The gathered datasets were assessed and compared using Parts-of-Speech (POS)features, sentence similarity metrics, and linguistic analysis. Then, the datasets were modeled and tested separately and in combination with one another using machine learning algorithms. The comparison and testing results reveal a superior dataset, by which a preferred context and input is understood, for generating image representations of missing persons using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN).

Bryan A Barrows

California & Oregon Ecological Forecasting: Detecting and Forecasting Fog Occurrence, Frequency, and Change to Support Coast Redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) Habitat Assessments

Fog and low clouds play an important role in providing moisture to coastal ecosystems. Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forests are currently distributed along a narrow strip of coastline in California and Oregon and rely on the presence of marine fog for moisture availability during the dry season (June-October). Recent time series analyses presented an uncertain future of fog frequency; however, a decline in fog presence may have adverse effects on the coast redwood habitat. To support Save the Redwoods League, a non-profit organization dedicated to coast redwood forest management, the team analyzed hourly fog data from the Geospatial Operational Environmental Satellite 17 (GOES-17) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and daily cloud cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra satellite. To explore present day fog longevity, GOES-17 was utilized to map the number of fog hours per day for the 2019 and 2020 dry seasons. The MODIS cloud flag was used to map the presence or absence of daily fog, which was summarized to create a monthly fog frequency dataset and identify trends in fog presence between 2000-2020. Both datasets were used as inputs into the random forest machine learning algorithm to identify climatic drivers of fog presence and longevity over the landscape. The present-day models suggested that daily temperature difference is a driving force behind fog presence and longevity. Trends in fog presence from 2000-2020 indicated great interannual variability. Finally, fog presence was modeled under a 2080 climate projection to shed light on the future of fog presence under a projected warmer climate. Model results projected an overall decline in fog presence during the dry season in the 2080s. Decreased fog presence as a result of increased temperature difference under a warmer climate remains to be a topic of investigation as to the impact on future redwood habitat suitability.

DEVELOP Project Summary

California & Oregon Ecological Forecasting: Detecting and Forecasting Fog Occurrence, Frequency, and Change to Inform Coast Redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) Habitat Assessments

Fog and low clouds play an important role in providing moisture to coastal ecosystems. Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forests are currently distributed along a narrow strip of coastline in California and Oregon and rely on the presence of marine fog for moisture availability during the dry season (June-October). Recent time series analyses presented an uncertain future of fog frequency; however, a decline in fog presence may have adverse effects on the coast redwood habitat. To complement ongoing work by Save the Redwoods League, a non-profit organization dedicated to coast redwood forest management, the team analyzed hourly fog data from the Geospatial Operational Environmental Satellite 17 (GOES-17) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and daily cloud cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra satellite. To explore present day fog longevity, GOES-17 was utilized to map the number of fog hours per day for the 2019 and 2020 dry seasons. The MODIS cloud flag was used to map the presence or absence of daily fog, which was summarized to create a monthly fog frequency dataset and identify trends in fog presence between 2000-2020. Both datasets were used as inputs into the random forest machine learning algorithm to identify climatic drivers of fog presence and longevity over the landscape. The present-day models suggested that daily temperature difference is a driving force behind fog presence and longevity. Trends in fog presence from 2000-2020 indicated great interannual variability. Finally, fog presence was modeled under a 2080 climate projection to shed light on the future of fog presence under a projected warmer climate. Model results projected an overall decline in fog presence during the dry season in the 2080s. Decreased fog presence as a result of increased temperature difference under a warmer climate remains to be a topic of investigation as to the impact on future redwood habitat suitability.

DEVELOP Technical Paper

Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions on Atmospheric Concentrations of O3 and NO2 Across the Globe

We use a machine learning algorithm combining information from the NASA GEOS composition forecast (GEOS-CF) model and surface observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) at more than 5,000 observation sites to assess the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on surface air quality in 46 countries. Our methodology removes the compounding impacts of meteorology, seasonality and atmospheric chemistry on air pollution, thus allowing for a quantitative estimate of the change in surface air quality following COVID-19 containment measures. Compared to GEOS-CF model predictions that do not include emission reductions related to COVID-19 restrictions, surface observations show a drop in surface NO2 of up to 60% after the implementation of lockdowns. Average NO2 concentrations between February 2020 to June 2020 were 18% lower than business as usual. The earliest and strongest declines are observed over China, followed by Europe and the US. While NO2 concentrations over China recovered within 2 months, the recovery has been slower over Europe and the US. The impact of COVID-19 restrictions on O3 is complicated by non-linear atmospheric chemistry. Locally, O3 can show a short-term increase of up to 50% as a result of the decrease in NO2, which leads to a reduction in night time titration. However, this effect is offset by a decrease in photochemical production during the day. Our results indicate that these two competing processes resulted in a net zero change in average surface ozone during the first 5 months of the pandemic. The results also indicate that the reduced photochemical production becomes increasingly important over time. Our analysis is based on surface observations and model simulations available in near real-time, and we will present an up-to-date view of the short and medium-term impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on air quality around the world.

COVID-19

From Low-Cost Sensors to High-Quality Data: A Review of Challenges and Summary of Best Practices for Effectively Using Low-Cost Particulate Matter Mass Sensors

Low-cost sensors for particulate matter mass (PM) enable spatially dense, high temporal resolution measurements of air quality that traditional reference monitoring cannot. Low-cost PM sensors are especially beneficial in low and middle-income countries where few, if any, reference grade measurements exist and in areas where the concentration fields of air pollutants have significant spatial gradients. Unfortunately, low-cost PM sensors also come with a number of challenges that must be addressed if their data products are to be used for anything more than a qualitative characterization of air quality. The various PM sensors used in low-cost monitors are all subject to biases and calibration dependencies, corrections for which range from relatively straightforward(e.g. meteorology, age of sensor) to complex (e.g. aerosol source, composition, refractive index). The methods for correcting and calibrating these biases and dependencies that have been used in the literature likewise range from simple linear and quadratic models to complex machine learning algorithms. Here we review the needs and challenges when trying to get high-quality data from low-cost sensors. We also present a set of best practices to follow to obtain high-quality data from these low-cost sensors.

low-cost sensors

QuantifyML: How good is my machine learning model?

This paper presents an approach, QuantifyML, which employs model counting to assess the learnability and robustness of machine learning models. Typically the efficacy of machine learning models is determined by computing their accuracy statistically on test data sets. However, this may be misleading, if the test data is not representative of the problem that is being studied. Further, two different models may have the same accuracy on a given data set, measured statistically, but may be very different in their behavior on unseen data. Also, models with high accuracy could have poor adversarial robustness. In QuantifyML, our goal is to precisely quantify the extent to which machine learning models have learned and generalized from the given data. In QuantifyML, a trained model is translated into a C program, which is fed to the CBMC model checking tool to produce a formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF), which in turn is analyzed with state-of-the-art model counters to efficiently obtain precise counts w.r.t different outputs. QuantifyML enables i) evaluating the learnability of models by comparing the counts for the outputs to ground truth, expressed as logical predicates (if available), ii) comparing the performance of different models that may be built with different machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision-trees vs. neural networks), and iii) quantifying the robustness of trained models around given inputs. Our evaluation demonstrates these applications of QuantifyML on decision trees and neural networks trained to learn relational properties of graphs, for which we know the ground truth, and to perform image classification, for which we do not have the ground truth, but we can quantify local robustness.

Deep Neural Networks

Collaborative Communications Between a Human and a Resilient Safety Support System

Successful introductory UAM integration into the NAS will be contingent on resilient safety systems that support reduced-crew flight operations. In this paper, we present a system that performs three functions: 1) monitors an operator’s physiological state; 2) assesses when the operator is experiencing anomalous states; and 3) mitigates risks by a combination of dynamic, context-based unilateral or collaborative dynamic function allocation of operational tasks. The monitoring process receives high data-rate sensor values from eye-tracking and electrocardiogram sensors. The assessment process takes these values and performs a classification that was developed using machine learning algorithms. The mitigation process invokes a collaboration protocol called DFACC to which, based on context, performs vehicle operations that the operator would otherwise routinely execute. This system has been demonstrated in a UAM flight simulator for an operator incapacitation scenario. The methods and initial results as well as relevant UAM and AAM scenarios will be described.

Advanced Air Mobility,

Global Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions on the Atmospheric Concentrations of Nitrogen Dioxide and Ozone

Social-distancing to combat the COVID-19 pandemic has led to widespread reductions in air pollutant emissions. Quantifying these changes requires a business-as-usual counterfactual that accounts for the synoptic and seasonal variability of air pollutants. We use a machine learning algorithm driven by information from the NASA GEOS-CF model to assess changes in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) at 5,756 observation sites in countries from January through June 2020. Reductions in NO2 coincide with timing and intensity of COVID-19 restrictions, ranging from 60% in severely affected cities (e.g., Wuhan, Milan) to little change (e.g., Rio de Janeiro, Taipei). On average, NO2 concentrations were (13-23) % lower than business as usual from February 2020 onward. China experienced the earliest and steepest decline, but concentrations since April have mostly recovered and remained within 5% to the business-as-usual estimate. NO2 reductions in Europe and the US have been more gradual with a halting recovery starting in late March. We estimate that the global NOx (NO+NO2) emission reduction during the first 6 months of 2020 amounted to 3.1 (2.6-3.6) TgN, equivalent to 5.5(4.7-6.4) % of the annual anthropogenic total. The response of surface O3 is complicated by competing influences of non-linear atmospheric chemistry. While surface O3 increased by up to 50% in some locations, we find the overall net impact on daily average O3 between February -June 2020 to be small. However, our analysis indicates a flattening of the O3 diurnal cycle with an increase in nighttime ozone due to reduced titration and a decrease in daytime ozone, reflecting a reduction in photochemical production.

Christoph A Keller

QuantifyML: How Good is My Machine Learning Model?

We present QuantifyML, which applies model counting to assess the learn ability, safety, and robustness of machine learning models. Typically, the efficacy of machine learning models is determined by computing their accuracy statistically on test datasets. However, this may be misleading, if the test data is not representative of the problem that is being studied. With QuantifyML we aim to precisely quantify the extent to which machine learning models have learned and generalized from the given data. In QuantifyML, a trained model is translated into aC program, which is fed to the CBMC model checking tool to produce a formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF), which in turn is analyzed with state-of-the-art model counters to efficiently obtain precise countsw.r.t different outputs. QuantifyML enables i) evaluating the learnability of models by comparing the counts for the outputs to ground truth, ex-pressed as logical predicates (if available), ii) comparing the performance of different models that may be built with different machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision-trees vs. neural networks), and iii) quantifying the safety and robustness of trained models.

Deep Neural Networks