Commercial High Speed Market Study(s) Summary
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Jeff Robinson↗
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Sending out an SOS: using start of rainy season indicators for market price forecasting to support famine early warning
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Frank M Davenport↗
The future of satellite remote sensing: A worldwide assessment and prediction
A frame-work in which to assess and predict the future prospects for satellite remote sensing markets is provided. The scope of the analysis is the satellite-related market for data, equipment, and services. It encompasses both domestic and international markets and contains an examination of the various market characteristics by market segment (e.g., Federal Government, State and Local Governments, Academic Organizations, Industrial Companies, and Individuals) and primary applications areas (e.g., Geology, Forestry, Land Resource Management, Agriculture and Cartography). The forecasts are derived from an analysis of both U.S. and foreign market data. The evolution and current status of U.S. and Foreign markets to arrive at market growth rates is evaluated. Circumstances and events which are likely to affect the future market development are examined. A market growth scenario is presented that is consistent with past data sales trends and takes into account the dynamic nature of the future satellite remote sensing market. Several areas of current and future business opportunities available in this market are discussed. Specific worldwide forecasts are presented in three market sectors for the period 1980 to 1990.
Spann, G. W.↗
High Speed Mobility Through On-Demand Aviation
Game changing advances come about by the introduction of new technologies at a time when societal needs create the opportunity for new market solutions. A unique opportunity exists for NASA to bring about such a mobility revolution in General Aviation, extendable to other aviation markets, to maintain leadership in aviation by the United States. This report outlines the research carried out so far under NASA's leadership towards developing a new mobility choice, called Zip Aviation1,2,3. The feasibility, technology and system gaps that need to be addressed, and pathways for successful implementation have been investigated to guide future investment. The past decade indicates exciting trends in transportation technologies, which are quickly evolving. Automobiles are embracing automation to ease driver tasks as well as to completely control the vehicle with added safety (Figure 1). Electric propulsion is providing zero tail-pipe emission vehicles with dramatically lower energy and maintenance costs. These technologies have not yet been applied to aviation, yet offer compelling potential benefits across all aviation markets, and in particular to General Aviation (GA) as an early adopter market. The benefits of such an adoption are applicable in the following areas: Safety: The GA market experiences accident rates that are substantially higher than automobiles or commercial airlines, with 7.5 fatal accidents per 100 million vehicle miles compared to 1.3 for automobiles and.068 for airlines. Approximately 80% of these accidents are caused by some form of pilot error, with another 13% caused by single point propulsion system failure. Emissions: Environmental constraints are pushing for the elimination of 100Low Lead (LL) fuel used in most GA aircraft, with aviation fuel the #1 source of lead emissions into the environment. Aircraft also have no emission control systems (i.e. no catalytic converters etc.), so they are gross hydrocarbon polluters compared to automobiles. Community Noise: Hub and smaller GA airports are facing increasing noise restrictions, and while commercial airliners have dramatically decreased their community noise footprint over the past 30 years, GA aircraft noise has essentially remained same, and moreover, is located in closer proximity to neighborhoods and businesses. Operating Costs: GA operating costs have risen dramatically due to average fuel costs of over $6 per gallon, which has constrained the market over the past decade and resulted in more than 50% lower sales and 35% less yearly operations. Infusion of autonomy and electric propulsion technologies can accomplish not only a transformation of the GA market, but also provide a technology enablement bridge for both larger aircraft and the emerging civil Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) markets. The NASA Advanced General Aviation Transport Experiments (AGATE) project successfully used a similar approach to enable the introduction of primary composite structures and flat panel displays in the 1990s, establishing both the technology and certification standardization to permit quick adoption through partnerships with industry, academia, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Regional and airliner markets are experiencing constant pressure to achieve decreasing levels of community emissions and noise, while lowering operating costs and improving safety. But to what degree can these new technology frontiers impact aircraft safety, the environment, operations, cost, and performance? Are the benefits transformational enough to fundamentally alter aircraft competiveness and productivity to permit much greater aviation use for high speed and On-Demand Mobility (ODM)? These questions were asked in a Zip aviation system study named after the Zip Car, an emerging car-sharing business model. Zip Aviation investigates the potential to enable new emergent markets for aviation that offer "more flexibility than the existing transportation solutions." These studies indicate that autonomy and electric propulsion technology infusions offer a unique opportunity to provide breakthrough capabilities for new high speed, on-demand travel alternatives that can leapfrog the need for future expensive ground-based infrastructure investment. At the same time, such investments offer a method of laying the foundation for these technologies to be incubated for commercial aviation at lower cost, and with lower initial certification thresholds due to the relatively poor capabilities of GA aircraft to permit early adoption and private market capitalization by rapid technology accelerations, as depicted in Figure 2.
Moore, Mark D.↗
An analysis of long and medium-haul air passenger demand, volume 1
A basic model was developed which is a two equation pair econometric system in which air passenger demand and airline level-of-service are the endogenous variables. The model aims to identify the relationship between each of these two variables and its determining factors, and to identify the interaction of demand and level-of-service with each other. The selected variable for the measure of air passenger traffic activity in a given pair market is defined as the number of passengers in a given time that originate in one region and fly to the other region for purposes other than to make a connection to a third region. For medium and long haul markets, the model seems to perform better for larger markets. This is due to a specification problem regarding the route structure variable. In larger markets, a greater percentage of nonlocal passengers are accounted for by this variable. Comparing the estimated fare elasticities of long and medium haul markets, it appears that air transportation demand is more price elastic in longer haul markets. Long haul markets demand will saturate with a fewer number of departures than will demand in medium haul markets.
Eriksen, S. E.↗
Life Cycle Cost Modeling of High-speed Commercial Aircraft - Final Report
SpaceWorks has concluded a 9-month research and development project aimed at addressing key questions in NASA’s effort to anticipate, understand, and ultimately support the emerging high-speed commercial flight market. The current project is a continuation of the Life Cycle Cost Modeling of High-Speed Commercial Aircraft1 , which is a follow-on to a 2021 study led by Deloitte and SpaceWorks entitled Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study2 . Based in part on the recommendations of these prior studies, the objectives of this current effort were to expand the trade space to include Mach 1.5 aircraft and conduct additional trade studies. These included utilizing tech stops to extend serviceable range between city pairs, mixed aircraft fleets based on market size, flight scheduling to maximize value of the travel opportunity, and scenarios with multiple service operators. Additionally, SpaceWorks conducted new market surveys and research to update air passengers’ willingness-to-pay for highspeed flights given the changes in macroeconomic conditions since the start of the Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study with Deloitte. Ultimately, the new data and capability to evaluate all the trade studies were implemented in a new simulation environment called MIDAS (Multi-market Integrated Dynamic Aerospace Simulation). This sophisticated tool, implemented using AnyLogic software, utilizes agent-based and discrete event simulation (DES) techniques to provide highly detailed analysis and assessment of the high-speed aircraft market problem.
high-speed↗
TO36 Hypersonic Study
Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study. At the request of NASA, Deloitte conducted an independent market study to provide an independent assessment on the economic viability of hypersonic and supersonic air transportation to inform ongoing strategic planning of research areas within the government and industry and to focus on the areas for technology development and vehicle design requirements. The Study was organized into three primary areas of investigation: Defining the Market appetite for high speed air transport, Defining the business cases; and Assessing Barriers in the environment. The market demand was assessed across a range of Mach numbers from Mach 2 to Mach 6 and ticket price elasticity was determined by surveying potential customers, literature reviews and stakeholder and expert interviews for passenger aircraft, private aircraft and cargo markets. The business case analyses assessed potential business cases across a three-dimensional trade space: flight speed (Mach 2-6), passenger capacity (20-200 passengers) and design range (2500-7500 nmi.). By using the SpaceWorks Rosetta model, we were able to assess each combination in the trade space and to determine the steady state Internal Rate of Return (IRR or profit) was our primary figure of merit and allowed us to rank order the business cases to understand the trends and draw conclusions from the complex trade space. Lastly, we assessed other potential barriers to high speed flight. These were determined through literature review and stakeholder/expert interviews. Once these were compiled, we developed an objective scoring system to allow us to determine overall significance and challenge to aspiring market entrants. The majority of the research was conducted between July and December of 2020 and the results compiled and communicated to NASA in the first quarter of calendar year 2021. This report, along with the companion briefing deck, document the summation of our research and serve as a data repository for use by future researchers in government and industry.
hypersonic aircraft↗
The design of a commercial space infrastructure
Space Services and Logistics, Inc. represents the complete engineering design of a technically and financially viable commercial space company. The final proposal offers an economically sound program of space vehicles and systems designed to substantially affect a variety of space markets and produce a vertically integrated structure within the next 20 years. Throughout this design process, particular stress has been placed on attaining the highest possible levels of safety and reliability. The final program financial design requires a considerable initial outlay, but promises a relatively quick return on invested capital, culminating in large annual profits by the end of the 20-year scope of the cost outlook. The overall design has been extensively researched and was primarily driven by the present and near-term projected market demands for services uniquely or competitively offered only by space-oriented operations. Heretofore, available capabilities, rather than these market demands, have determined the degree and type of commercial market access. Removing this limitation through extensive use of modularity and reconfigurability allows the company to gear itself to the market, while still remaining extremely competitive with existing systems. The markets identified as lucrative, and that have governed much of the design requirements, are: low-cost launch services to LEO over a wide range of payload masses and inclinations; upper stage payload delivery from LEO to GEO; manned space operations and human transport to and from orbit; EVA assembly and maintenance of large space structures; satellite servicing and repair by both humans and telerobotic operations; a line of customized satellites designed for extended life and capable of reconfiguration or technology upgrade on orbit; small-scale microgravity experimentation and manufacturing supported by spacecraft retrieval capabilities for experimental specimens and manufactured goods; and a full-range of payload integration, testing, design, and support services before launch and once in orbit.
Source record↗
The RTL-46: A simulated commercial air transportation study
The RTL-46 provides an aircraft which utilizes advanced technology within the fictional Aeroworld market to better service the air travel customers and airlines of Aeroworld. The RTL-46 is designed to serve the portion of the travel market which flies less than 10,000 feet per flight. The design cruise velocity for the aircraft is 35 ft/sec, which rapidly expedites travel through Aeroworld. The major focus of the endeavor was to design an aircraft which would serve the Aeroworld market better than the existing aircraft, the HB-40. This could have been done through targeting another portion of the Aeroworld market or through serving the current HB-40 market more effectively. Due to the fact that approximately 70 percent of the potential Aeroworld passengers desired flights of 10,000 ft or less, this range became the target market for the RTL-46.
Dunbar, Christian↗
Digital Linear Tape (DLT) technology and product family overview
The demand that began a couple of years ago for increased data storage capacity continues. Peripheral Strategies (a Santa Barbara, California, Storage Market Research Firm) projects the amount of data stored on the average enterprise network will grow by 50 percent to 100 percent per year. Furthermore, Peripheral Strategies says that a typical mid-range workstation system containing 30GB to 50GB of storage today will grow at the rate of 50 percent per year. Dan Friedlander, a Boulder, Colorado-based consultant specializing in PC-LAN backup, says, 'The average NetWare LAN is about 8GB, but there are many that have 30GB to 300GB.....' The substantial growth of storage requirements has created various tape technologies that seek to satisfy the needs of today's and, especially, the next generations's systems and applications. There are five leading tape technologies in the market today: QIC (Quarter Inch Cartridge), IBM 3480/90, 8mm, DAT (Digital Audio Tape) and DLT (Digital Linear Tape). Product performance specifications and user needs have combined to classify these technologies into low-end, mid-range, and high-end systems applications. Although the manufacturers may try to position their products differently, product specifications and market requirements have determined that QIC and DAT are primarily low-end systems products while 8mm and DLT are competing for mid-range systems applications and the high-end systems space, where IBM compatibility is not required. The 3480/90 products seem to be used primarily in the IBM market, for interchangeability purposes. There are advantages and disadvantages for each of the tape technologies in the market today. We believe that DLT technology offers a significant number of very important features and specifications that make it extremely attractive for most current as well as emerging new applications, such as Hierarchical Storage Management (HSM). This paper will demonstrate why we think that the DLT technology and family of DLT products will become the technology of choice for most new applications in the mid-range and high-end (non-IBM) markets.
Lignos, Demetrios↗
Commercial Research and Development: Power to Explore, Opportunities from Discovery
The technical and economic goals of commercial use of space are laudable, and are addressed as a high priority by almost every national space program and most major aerospace companies the world over. Yet, the focus of most organizational agendas and discussions tends to focus on one or two very narrow enabling aspects of this potentially large technological and economic opportunity. While government sponsored commercial launch activities and private space platforms are an integral part of efforts to leverage the commercial use of space, these activities are possibly one of the smallest parts of creating, a viable and sustainable market for the commercial use of space. Most of the current programs usually do not appropriately address some of the critical issues of the current, already interested, potential space user communities. Current programs place the focus of the majority of the user requirements on the vehicle payload weight and mass performance considerations as the primary payload economical factor in providing a commercial market with a stimulating price for gaining access to the space environment. The larger user challenges of transformation from Earth-based research and development approaches to space environment approaches are not addressed early enough in programs to impact the new business considerations of potential users. Currently, space-based research and development user activities require a large user investment in time, in development of new areas of support expertise, in development of new systems, in risk of schedule to completion, and in long term capital positioning. The larger opportunities for stimulating a strong market driven interest in commercial use of space that could result from the development of vehicle payload "leap ahead technologies" for users are being missed, and there is a real risk of limiting the potentially broader market base to support a more technologically advanced and economically lucrative outcome. A major driving force for strengthening the commercial space activities is not only the technological advances in launch vehicle, or newer satellites, but the myriad of enabling payloads technologies that could, as a goal, result in an almost transparent facilitation to regular CD a, -n access to space and microgravity environments by the future users from the existing Earth-based research and development organizations market segments. Rather than focusing only on developing high lift performance launch vehicles and then developing payloads to fit them, the real focus from a business model perspective should to be on the customer payloads requirements, and on designing launch vehicles and platforms systems for a space transportation and facility infrastructure to support all aspects of the business model for the user market. To harness the full potential of space commercialization, new efforts need to be made to comprehensively examine all the critical business model areas for commercial research, development, and manufacturing in space so as to identify specific products and efforts; to determine how such operations must be both similar to and different from current Earth-based activities; to evaluate the enabling technological devices, processes and efforts so that like efforts can be addressed in a synergistic fashion for maximum user cost effectiveness; to delineate the services that are both needed and can be provided by such activities; and to use this information to drive design and development of space commercialization efforts and policy.
Casas, Joseph C.↗
Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Development and Global Competitiveness of US Space Transportation Industry: Critical Success Factors Assessment
In response to the unrelenting call in both public and private sectors fora to reduce the high cost associated with space transportation, many innovative partially or fully RLV designs (X-34-37) were initiated. This call is directed at all levels of space missions including scientific, military, and commercial and all aspects of the missions such as nonrecurring development, manufacture, launch, and operations. According to Wertz (2000), over thirty years, the cost of space access has remained exceedingly high. For example, London (1996, 1994), Wertz (1996) and Hammond (1999) have discussed in details the reasons for the skyrocket launch costs. The consensus in the popular press is that to decrease the current astronomical cost of access to space, more safer, reliable, and economically viable SGRLVs must be developed. This current skyrocket cost of space launch poses a major constraint to broadening and expanding U.S. economic activities in LEO. As a result, affecting global competitiveness of U. S. CST industry. Foreign firms control greater share of the launch market once dominated by U.S. For example, in the mid 1980s U.S. service providers had approximately 100% of the commercial space launch market revenues, but today U.S. has less than 50% of that market (Graham, 2001). Further, because of the growth potential in the international launch market, countries such as Brazil, India, Japan and Israel are gearing up to enter the global launch market with their own commercial space launch vehicles. Considering this fact, NASA and U.S. space launch industry cannot afford to lag behind. Therefore developing SGRLVs will immeasurably improve the U.S. space transportation capabilities by helping the U.S. to regain the global commercial space markets while supporting the transportation capabilities of NASA's space mission.
Chris I. Enyinda↗
The Study of Airline Merger and Acquisition in the Great China Area
The Asian financial crisis in the late 20 th century has some long lasting effect on the air transportation industry in Asia, especially in the Great China Area. Starting from 1998, airlines in both China and Taiwan suffered some serious financial losses due to the diminishing travel demand caused by the economic recession. Airlines were forced to cut price to attract passengers and hence crashed the market discipline. A number of airline mergers and acquisitions were then driven by the markets and the governments. After China and Taiwan have both entered the World Trade Organization, some mega-merging cases were finalized in late 2002 for better fitting the world's aviation competitions. This paper reviews the nine merging and acquiring cases in the Great China Area in the past 5 years. Almost all the airlines in the area were involved. The new groups of airlines and the survival airlines are introduced. Market response to the airline mergers will also be examined. A general look over the performance of the new airlines will be discussed. And the future of the market will also be analyzed. Finally, the practices and the impacts of current inter-state mergers in the Great China Area will be examined. The study has expected a highly concentrated domestic market in both China and Taiwan. Each of the market will be dominated by three major airline groups of their own. Cross-holding equity within these 6 leading aviation groups would also be possible after further deregulations.
Shon, Zhengyi↗
Mobile radio alternative systems study. Volume 1: Traffic model
The markets for mobile radio services in non-urban areas of the United States are examined for the years 1985-2000. Three market categories are identified. New Services are defined as those for which there are different expressed ideas but which are not now met by any application of available technology. The complete fulfillment of the needs requires nationwide radio access to vehicles without knowledge of vehicle location, wideband data transmission from remote sites, one- and two way exchange of short data and control messages between vehicles and dispatch or control centers, and automatic vehicle location (surveillance). The commercial and public services market of interest to the study is drawn from existing users of mobile radio in non-urban areas who are dissatisfied with the geographical range or coverage of their systems. The mobile radio telephone market comprises potential users who require access to the public switched telephone network in areas that are not likely to be served by the traditional growth patterns of terrestrial mobile telephone services. Conservative, likely, and optimistic estimates of the markets are presented in terms of numbers of vehicles that will be served and the radio traffic they will generate.
Tucker, W. T.↗
Foreign civil aviation competition: 1976 summary and implications
A summary assessment is made of foreign civil aviation as it relates to the posture of the United States civil aviation industry. Major findings include: (1) Main competitors - European Economic Community (EEC) and Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). (2) Largest commercial market - Transport aircraft. (3) Current market status and projections - U.S. currently dominates the civil aviation market but foreign markets show greater growth trends. (4) Competitive comparisons - Status comparisons are made in technology (aerodynamics, structures and materials, propulsion, avionics, systems, design coordination, and manufacturing); production runs; marketing; and postsales support. The U.S. generally leads except in aerodynamics and propulsion. (5) Multinational ventures - Joint U.S. industry/foreign government development of advanced technology engines is well developed; airframe industry discussions are now underway. (6) Implications - Although the U.S., is currently preeminent in most areas, this may be only a temporary condition. Past U.S. success in aviation has provided many benefits to the nation. These benefits may be lost.
Alford, W. J., Jr.↗
MM-122: High speed civil transport
The rapidly expanding Pacific Rim market along with other growing markets indicates that the future market potential for a high speed civil transport is great indeed. The MM-122 is the answer to the international market desire for a state of the art, long range, high speed civil transport. It will carry 250 passengers a distance of 5200 nm at over twice the speed of sound. The MM-122 is designed to incorporate the latest technologies in the areas of control systems, propulsions, aerodynamics, and materials. The MM-122 will accomplish these goals using the following design parameters. First, a double delta wing planform with highly swept canards and an appropriately area ruled fuselage will be incorporated to accomplish desired aerodynamic characteristics. Propulsion will be provided by four low bypass variable cycle turbofan engines. A quad-redundant fly-by-wire flight control system will be incorporated to provide appropriate static stability and level 1 handling qualities. Finally, the latest in conventional metallic and modern composite materials will be used to provide desired weight and performance characteristics. The MM-122 incorporates the latest in technology and cost minimization techniques to provide a viable solution to this future market potential.
Demarest, Bill↗
Evolution of the INMARSAT aeronautical system: Service, system, and business considerations
A market-driven approach was adopted to develop enhancements to the Inmarsat-Aeronautical system, to address the requirements of potential new market segments. An evolutionary approach and well differentiated product/service portfolio was required, to minimize system upgrade costs and market penetration, respectively. The evolved system definition serves to minimize equipment cost/size/mass for short/medium range aircraft, by reducing the antenna gain requirement and relaxing the performance requirements for non safety-related communications. A validation program involving simulation, laboratory tests, over-satellite tests and flight trials is being conducted to confirm the system definition. Extensive market research has been conducted to determine user requirements and to quantify market demand for future Inmarsat Aero-1 AES, using sophisticated computer assisted survey techniques.
Sengupta, Jay R.↗
Cost and Economics for Advanced Launch Vehicles
Market sensitivity and weight-based cost estimating relationships are key drivers in determining the financial viability of advanced space launch vehicle designs. Due to decreasing space transportation budgets and increasing foreign competition, it has become essential for financial assessments of prospective launch vehicles to be performed during the conceptual design phase. As part of this financial assessment, it is imperative to understand the relationship between market volatility, the uncertainty of weight estimates, and the economic viability of an advanced space launch vehicle program. This paper reports the results of a study that evaluated the economic risk inherent in market variability and the uncertainty of developing weight estimates for an advanced space launch vehicle program. The purpose of this study was to determine the sensitivity of a business case for advanced space flight design with respect to the changing nature of market conditions and the complexity of determining accurate weight estimations during the conceptual design phase. The expected uncertainty associated with these two factors drives the economic risk of the overall program. The study incorporates Monte Carlo simulation techniques to determine the probability of attaining specific levels of economic performance when the market and weight parameters are allowed to vary. This structured approach toward uncertainties allows for the assessment of risks associated with a launch vehicle program's economic performance. This results in the determination of the value of the additional risk placed on the project by these two factors.
Whitfield, Jeff↗