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DOE OSTI2025

Water Mass Transformation Budgets in Finite‐Volume Generalized Vertical Coordinate Ocean Models

Water Mass Transformation (WMT) theory provides conceptual tools that in principle enable innovative analyses of numerical ocean models; in practice, however, these methods can be challenging to implement and interpret, and therefore remain under-utilized. Our aim is to demonstrate the feasibility of diagnosing all terms in the water mass budget and to exemplify their usefulness for scientific inquiry and model development by quantitatively relating water mass changes, overturning circulations, boundary fluxes, and interior mixing. We begin with a pedagogical derivation of key results of classical WMT theory. We then describe best practices for diagnosing each of the water mass budget terms from the output of Finite-Volume Generalized Vertical Coordinate (FV-GVC) ocean models, including the identification of a non-negligible remainder term as the spurious numerical mixing due to advection scheme discretization errors. We illustrate key aspects of the methodology through the analysis of a polygonal region of the Greater Baltic Sea in a regional demonstration simulation using the Modular Ocean Model v6 (MOM6). We verify the convergence of our WMT diagnostics by brute-force, comparing time-averaged (“offline”) diagnostics on various vertical grids to timestep-averaged (“online”) diagnostics on the native model grid. Finally, we briefly describe a stack of xarray-enabled Python packages for evaluating WMT budgets in FV-GVC models (culminating in the new xwmb package), which is intended to be model-agnostic and available for community use and development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Energy Snapshot - Guyana

This profile provides a snapshot of the energy landscape for Guyana, a country on the northern mainland of South America that is culturally tied to the Caribbean. In the Nationally Determined Contributions, Guyana has committed to develop a mix of wind, solar, biomass and hydro-power to supply both demand of the national grid and the energy requirements for towns and villages in Guyana’s hinterland. Guyana has set an ambitious target of achieving close to 100% renewable energy in the power sector by 2025.

44 EE - Strategic Programs, Energy Transition Init↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neutrino Flavor Model Building and the Origins of Flavor and CP Violation

The neutrino sector offers one of the most sensitive probes of new physics beyond the Standard Model of Particle Physics (SM). The mechanism of neutrino mass generation is still unknown. The observed suppression of neutrino masses hints at a large scale, conceivably of the order of the scale of a rand unified theory (GUT), which is a unique feature of neutrinos that is not shared by the charged fermions. The origin of neutrino masses and mixing is part of the outstanding puzzle of fermion masses and mixings, which is not explained ab initio in the SM. Flavor model building for both quark and lepton sectors is important in order to gain a better understanding of the origin of the structure of mass hierarchy and flavor mixing, which constitute the dominant fraction of the SM parameters. Recent activities in neutrino flavor model building based on non-Abelian discrete flavor symmetries and modular flavor symmetries have been shown to be a promising direction to explore. The emerging models provide a framework that has a significantly reduced number of undetermined parameters in the flavor sector. In addition, such a framework affords a novel origin of CP violation from group theory due to the intimate connection between physical CP transformation and group theoretical properties of non-Abelian discrete groups. Model building based on non-Abelian discrete flavor symmetries and their modular variants enables the particle physics community to interpret the current and anticipated upcoming data from neutrino experiments. Non-Abelian discrete flavor symmetries and their modular variants can result from compactification of a higher-dimensional theory. Pursuit of flavor model building based on such frameworks thus also provides the connection to possible UV completions: in particular, to string theory. We emphasize the importance of constructing models in which the uncertainties of theoretical predictions are smaller than, or at most compatible with, the error bars of measurements in neutrino experiments. While there exist proof-of-principle versions of bottom-up models in which the theoretical uncertainties are under control, it is remarkable that the key ingredients of such constructions were discovered first in top-down model building. We outline how a successful unification of bottom-up and top-down ideas and techniques may guide us towards a new era of precision flavor model building in which future experimental results can give us crucial insights into the UV completion of the SM.

Almumin, Yahya (ORCID:0000000196396772)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Emerging Energy Market Analysis Initiative, Methodological Framework

Planning and operations of the electric power sector are undergoing radical changes. Climate change mitigation efforts have forced rapid changes to the technology mix. Technologies like wind and solar have experienced rapid growth, while investment in fossil sources has peaked or is declining. These foundational changes are forcing changes to energy systems. Demand-side adoption of electrified technologies, including electric vehicles, is changing load profiles and opening up new avenues for consumer participation in the power systems. The implications of an evolving power system pertain to more than environmental and technical dimensions. Changes to the generation mix and its consequent upstream and downstream impacts such as fuel production have significant and highly concentrated consequences on economies and employment. Shifts towards distributed (or decentralized) generating assets offer the potential to reshape economic and employment opportunities associated with the energy sector across space and socioeconomic groups. The Emerging Energy Market Analysis (EMA) initiative aims to identify sustainable, regionally acceptable, and high-value energy solutions that are secure and equitable. Unlike short-term, least-cost choices that can narrowly account for traditional options, EMA’s focus on emerging energy markets recognizes that new or adapted practices and technologies can alter the frontier of solutions and advance a community’s social, economic, and natural pathways. Such change requires a more comprehensive analysis of societal input, resources, capabilities, and infrastructure. These considerations lay the foundation for community decision-making models that are responsive to community values as well as the history and drivers. The result is a community-based decision and engagement model that will be valuable to decisionmakers and developers of advanced and emerging energy solutions, seeking a social license to operate prior to project development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Berkeley Lab Finite Element Framework (BELFEM) v0.1

The software program, referred to as BELFEM, is a specialized finite element code designed for the magnetodynamic modeling of high-temperature superconducting (HTS) tapes. It incorporates novel mixed finite element formulations, particularly the h-ϕ-formulation with thin-shell simplification, to efficiently simulate larger geometries. This methodology is extremely promising for predicting the electrodynamic performance of HTS tapes used in superconducting cables and magnets, offering the benefit of reduced computational cost. Compared to similar technologies like COMSOL Multiphysics and GetDP, BELFEM's performance benchmarking indicates superior efficiency in its thin-shell implementation. In the future, it will also support features like thermal coupling and inter-tape current sharing, enhancing its utility in research and development, particularly in nuclear fusion applications. The intent is to develop BELFEM as a robust and efficient tool for the HTS community, contributing to the analysis and design of superconducting cables and magnets.

Messe, Christian↗

DOE OSTI2024

Self-reported health impacts of do-it-yourself air cleaner use in a smoke-impacted community

Smoke exposure from wildfires or residential wood burning for heat is a public health problem for many communities. Do-It-Yourself (DIY) portable air cleaners (PACs) are promoted as affordable alternatives to commercial PACs, but evidence of their effect on health outcomes is limited. Pilot test an evaluation of the effect of DIY PAC usage on self-reported symptoms, and investigate barriers and facilitators of PAC use, among members of a tribal community that routinely experiences elevated concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) from smoke. We conducted studies in Fall 2021 (“wildfire study”; N = 10) and Winter 2022 (“wood stove study”; N = 17). Each study included four sequential one-to-two-week phases: 1) initial, 2) DIY PAC usage ≥8 h/day, 3) commercial PAC usage ≥8 h/day, and 4) air sensor with visual display and optional PAC use. We continuously monitored PAC usage and indoor/outdoor PM 2.5 concentrations in homes. Concluding each phase, we conducted phone surveys about participants’ symptoms, perceptions, and behaviors. We analyzed symptoms associated with PAC usage and conducted an analysis of indoor PM 2.5 concentrations as a mediating pathway using mixed effects multivariate linear regression. We categorized perceptions related to PACs into barriers and facilitators of use. No association was observed between PAC usage and symptoms, and the mediation analysis did not indicate that small observed trends were attributable to changes in indoor PM 2.5 concentrations. Small sample sizes hindered the ability to draw conclusions regarding the presence or absence of causal associations. DIY PAC usage was low; loud operating noise was a barrier to use. This research is novel in studying health effects of DIY PACs during wildfire and wood smoke exposures. Such research is needed to inform public health guidance. Recommendations for future studies on PAC use during smoke exposure include building flexibility of intervention timing into the study design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Building energy efficiency and load flexibility optimization using phase change materials under futuristic grid scenario

This work investigates the energy savings and load flexibility capacity of phase change material (PCM) integrated into building envelope under a future energy generation scenario, where 80% of the energy load comes from renewable sources. Using community-scale modeling, we first determine the net thermal storage required to fully manage the demand variability at a utility grid, and then using whole-building simulations we optimize operating parameters - such as PCM thickness, latent heat, interior setpoint profile, PCM distribution, and heat transfer coefficient - to determine the optimal conditions required for maximum energy reduction and load flexibility without compromising occupants' thermal comfort. The optimal PCM-integrated envelope proposed in this study can provide annual load flexibility up to 33.6% and annual energy savings up to 10.8% in a lightweight residential building located in Baltimore, MD. This study is relevant given the increasing contributions of renewable energy in the total energy generation mix, leading to a significant time-imbalance between peak energy demand and peak energy production. While thermal energy storage using PCM is a recognized technique, there is no known prior study dedicated to examining the thermal performance of PCM-integrated envelope under future energy generation scenarios. This study bridges the research gap by investigating a practical way to implement PCMs in the buildings and maximize the energy efficiency as well as load flexibility related benefits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Imprint of Southern Ocean Storms on Modeled Surface Chlorophyll, Their Drivers and Satellite Biases

Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton chlorophyll is highly variable on sub-seasonal time scales. Although the SO is the windiest ocean basin globally, it is not conclusively understood how storms impact SO phytoplankton dynamics. Much of our existing knowledge stems from satellites, but biases due to data gaps from cloud cover and low solar angles remain unquantified. Here, we use ocean–sea-ice simulations with the Community Earth System Model to quantify the climatological 1997–2018 imprint of storms on chlorophyll and phytoplankton dynamics in the ice-free SO. Additionally, by comparing the full-field model output to synthetic satellite observations, we quantify sampling biases in satellite-derived estimates. We find that both the sign and the magnitude of the average surface chlorophyll imprint vary substantially across storms but last for at least 4 days after the storm passing. Based on our analysis, more than one third of the storms explain the majority of local non-seasonal chlorophyll variability, but satellite-derived storm imprints are often too large in magnitude. On the day of the storm passing, changes in vertical mixing predominantly cause surface chlorophyll anomalies, and reduced light availability due to enhanced cloud cover outweighs the enhanced nutrient availability due to entrainment. Interestingly, storms imprint differently on total net primary production than on surface chlorophyll, demonstrating the difficulty to derive carbon-cycle impacts from a surface-chlorophyll assessment. With SO future storm activity projected to increase, complementing satellite observations with other observing technologies, for example, profiling floats, is necessary to better constrain how storms impact biological carbon cycling in the SO.

Nissen, Cara [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Data and Cross Section Testing Using ENDF/B-VIII.0

With the release of the Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF)/B-VIII.0 library, nuclear criticality safety practitioners and engineers have access to the latest cross section sets available for their analyses. However, these cross sections must be rigorously tested and validated to ensure that the nuclear data are responsive to the needs of the individuals responsible for developing, implementing, and maintaining computational tools for criticality safety applications. Thus, the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library is tested and validated with a large collection of experiments that were vetted by the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project and made available in the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments. A selection of benchmark experiments for use within the criticality safety community were prepared and reviewed within the Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID), which is maintained by the Nuclear Energy and Fuel Cycle Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The performance of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library is assessed by using VALID models of benchmark experiments with the beta 12 version of SCALE 6.3 KENO V.a and KENO-VI Monte Carlo codes. The performance is compared with the results obtained from with the ENDF/B-VII.1 library. This report considers multigroup (MG) and continuous energy (CE) formats of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 and -VII.1 libraries. The benchmark experiments within VALID that validate the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library cover 15 broad system categories by using a range of fissile materials, uranium enrichments, plutonium isotopic vectors, and mixed uranium/plutonium systems. These forms are represented as metals, solutions, or various arrays of rods or plates that cover a variety of neutron energy spectra: thermal, fast, mixed, and intermediate. Over 600 cases were considered for use with the KENO V.a and KENO-VI codes with the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library. The results of the Monte Carlo comparison of ENDF/B-VIII.0 to ENDF/B-VII.1 with both KENO V.a and KENO-VI indicate that there is a less than 0.53% Δk difference between the bias of calculated k eff from the expected values. The CE ENDF/B-VIII.0 library results in smaller magnitude biases than the ENDF/B-VII.1 data for HEU-MET-FAST, HEU-SOL-THERM, IEU-MET-FAST, LEU-SOL-THERM, PU-SOL-THERM, and U233-MET-FAST systems, while the MG results yielded smaller magnitude biases for HEU-MET-FAST, HEU-SOL-THERM, IEU-MET-FAST, LEU-COMP-THERM, LEU-SOL THERM, MIX-COMP-FAST, and U233-MET-FAST systems. Most notable are the adjustments to the plutonium and 233 U cross section data, which has resulted in noticeably lower biases in the ENDF/B VIII.0 results for the mixed, plutonium, and 233 U systems. Results of the sensitivity data file comparison generated from TSUNAMI-3D for selected VALID cases for the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library indicate a very high level of agreement with correlation coefficients of the effect of nuclear data uncertainty on k eff (the c k integral parameter) all above 0.99. This indicates that cases with the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library would see very similar responses to any nuclear data errors or change as those with the ENDF/B-VII.1 library.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Post-detonation fireball modeling: Validation of freeze out approximations

A numerical simulation study was performed to examine the post-detonation reaction processes produced by the detonation of a 12 mm diameter hemispherical pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) explosive charge. The simulations used a finite rate detailed chemical reaction model consisting of 59 species and 368 reactions to capture post-detonation reaction processes including air dissociation from Mach 19+ shock waves that initially break out of the PETN charge, reactions within the detonation products during expansion, and afterburning when the detonation products mix with the shock heated air. The multi-species and thermodynamically complete Becker-Kistiakowsky-Wilson real-gas equation of state is used for the gaseous phase to allow for the mixing of reactive species. A recent simplified reactive burn model is used to propagate the detonation through the charge and allow for detailed post-detonation reaction processes. The computed blast, shock structures, and mole fractions of species within the detonation products agree well with experimental measurements. A comparison of the simulation results to equilibrium calculations indicates that the assumption of a local equilibrium is fairly accurate until the detonation products rapidly cool to temperatures in the range of 1500-1900 K by expansion waves. Below this range, the computed results show mole fractions that are nearly chemically frozen within the detonation products for a significant portion of expansion. In conclusion, these results are consistent with the freeze out approximation used in the blast modeling community.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of a deep learning fuel property prediction model

Deep learning models are being widely used in the field of combustion. Given the black-box nature of typical neural network based models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical to ensure the reliability of predictions as well as the training datasets, and for a principled quantification of noise and its various sources. Deep learning surrogate models for predicting properties of chemical compounds and mixtures have been recently shown to be promising for enabling data-driven fuel design and optimization, with the ultimate goal of improving efficiency and lowering emissions from combustion engines. In this study, UQ is performed for a multi-task deep learning model that simultaneously predicts the research octane number (RON), Motor Octane Number (MON), and Yield Sooting Index (YSI) of pure components and multicomponent blends. The deep learning model is comprised of three smaller networks: Extractor 1, Extractor 2, and Predictor, and a mixing operator. The molecular fingerprints of individual components are encoded via Extractor 1 and Extractor 2, the mixing operator generates fingerprints for mixtures/blends based on linear mixing operation, and the predictor maps the fingerprint to the target properties. Two different classes of UQ methods, Monte Carlo ensemble methods and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), are employed for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty. Combinations of Bernoulli and Gaussian distributions with DropConnect and DropOut techniques are explored as ensemble methods. All the DropConnect, DropOut and Bayesian layers are applied to the predictor network. Aleatoric uncertainty is modeled by assuming that each data point has an independent uncertainty associated with it. The results of the UQ study are further analyzed to compare the performance of BNN and ensemble methods. Although this study is confined to UQ of fuel property prediction, the methodologies are applicable to other deep learning frameworks that are being widely used in the combustion community.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Light scalars in neutron star mergers

Due to their unique set of multimessenger signals, neutron star mergers have emerged as a novel environment for studies of new physics beyond the Standard Model (SM). As a case study, we consider the simplest extension of the SM scalar sector involving a light CP-even scalar singlet S mixing with the SM Higgs boson. These S particles can be produced abundantly in neutron star mergers via the nucleon bremsstrahlung process. Here, we show that the S particles may either be trapped in or stream freely out of the merger remnant, depending on the S mass, its mixing with the SM Higgs boson, and the temperature and baryon density in the merger. In the free-streaming region, the scalar S will provide an extra channel to cool down the merger remnant, with cooling timescales as small as Script O(ms). On the other hand, in the trapped region, the Bose gas of S particles could contribute a larger thermal conductivity than the trapped neutrinos in some parts of the parameter space, thus leading to faster thermal equilibration than expected. Therefore, future observations of the early postmerger phase of a neutron star merger could effectively probe a unique range of the S parameter space, largely complementary to the existing and future laboratory and supernova limits. In view of these results, we hope the merger simulation community will be motivated to implement the effects of light CP-even scalars into their simulations in both the free-streaming and trapped regimes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using mixed methods to construct and analyze a participatory agent-based model of a complex Zimbabwean agro-pastoral system

Complex social-ecological systems can be difficult to study and manage. Simulation models can facilitate exploration of system behavior under novel conditions, and participatory modeling can involve stakeholders in developing appropriate management processes. Participatory modeling already typically involves qualitative structural validation of models with stakeholders, but with increased data and more sophisticated models, quantitative behavioral validation may be possible as well. In this study, we created a novel agent-basedmodel applied to a specific context: Zimbabwean non-governmental organization the Muonde Trust has been collecting data on their agro-pastoral system for the last 35 years and had concerns about land-use planning and the effectiveness of management interventions in the face of climate change. We collaboratively created an agent-based model of their system using their data archive, qualitatively calibrating it to the observed behavior of the real system without tuning any parameters to match specific quantitative outputs. We then behaviorally validated the model using quantitative community-based data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the relative impact of underlying parameter assumptions, Indigenous management interventions, and different rainfall variation scenarios. We found that our process resulted in a model which was successfully structurally validated and sufficiently realistic to be useful for Muonde researchers as a discussion tool. The model was inconsistently behaviorally validated, however, with some model variables matching field data better than others. We observed increased model system instability due to increasing variability in underlying drivers (rainfall), and also due to management interventions that broke feedbacks between the components of the system. Interventions that smoothed year-to-year variation rather than exaggerating it tended to improve sustainability. The Muonde trust has used the model to successfully advocate to local leaders for changes in land-use planning policy that will increase the sustainability of their system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hybridization effect on the x-ray absorption spectra for actinide materials: Application to PuB 4

Studying the local moment and 5 f -electron occupations sheds insight into the electronic behavior in actinide materials. X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) has been a powerful tool to reveal the valence electronic structure when assisted with theoretical calculations. However, the analysis currently taken in the community on the branching ratio of the XAS spectra generally does not account for the hybridization effects between local f orbitals and conduction states. In this paper, we discuss an approach which employs the density functional theory plus Gutzwiller rotationally invariant slave boson method to obtain a local Hamiltonian for the single-impurity Anderson model, and calculates the XAS spectra by the exact diagonalization (ED) method. A customized numerical routine was implemented for the ED XAS part of the calculation. By applying this technique to the recently discovered 5 f -electron topological Kondo insulator Pu B 4 , we determined the signature of 5 f -electronic correlation effects in the theoretical x-ray spectra. Furthermore, we found that the Pu 5 f - 6 d hybridization effect provides an extra channel to mix the j = 5 / 2 and 7 / 2 orbitals in the 5 f valence. As a consequence, the resulting electron occupation number and spin-orbit coupling strength deviate from the intermediate-coupling regime.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

FLAG Review 2019: Flavour Lattice Averaging Group (FLAG)

Abstract We review lattice results related to pion, kaon, D -meson, B -meson, and nucleon physics with the aim of making them easily accessible to the nuclear and particle physics communities. More specifically, we report on the determination of the light-quark masses, the form factor $$f_+(0)$$ f + ( 0 ) arising in the semileptonic $$K \rightarrow \pi $$ K → π transition at zero momentum transfer, as well as the decay constant ratio $$f_K/f_\pi $$ f K / f π and its consequences for the CKM matrix elements $$V_{us}$$ V us and $$V_{ud}$$ V ud . Furthermore, we describe the results obtained on the lattice for some of the low-energy constants of $$SU(2)_L\times SU(2)_R$$ S U ( 2 ) L × S U ( 2 ) R and $$SU(3)_L\times SU(3)_R$$ S U ( 3 ) L × S U ( 3 ) R Chiral Perturbation Theory. We review the determination of the $$B_K$$ B K parameter of neutral kaon mixing as well as the additional four B parameters that arise in theories of physics beyond the Standard Model. For the heavy-quark sector, we provide results for $$m_c$$ m c and $$m_b$$ m b as well as those for D - and B -meson decay constants, form factors, and mixing parameters. These are the heavy-quark quantities most relevant for the determination of CKM matrix elements and the global CKM unitarity-triangle fit. We review the status of lattice determinations of the strong coupling constant $$\alpha _s$$ α s . Finally, in this review we have added a new section reviewing results for nucleon matrix elements of the axial, scalar and tensor bilinears, both isovector and flavor diagonal.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

FLAG Review 2021

Abstract We review lattice results related to pion, kaon, D -meson, B -meson, and nucleon physics with the aim of making them easily accessible to the nuclear and particle physics communities. More specifically, we report on the determination of the light-quark masses, the form factor $$f_+(0)$$ f + ( 0 ) arising in the semileptonic $$K \rightarrow \pi $$ K → π transition at zero momentum transfer, as well as the decay constant ratio $$f_K/f_\pi $$ f K / f π and its consequences for the CKM matrix elements $$V_{us}$$ V us and $$V_{ud}$$ V ud . Furthermore, we describe the results obtained on the lattice for some of the low-energy constants of $$SU(2)_L\times SU(2)_R$$ S U ( 2 ) L × S U ( 2 ) R and $$SU(3)_L\times SU(3)_R$$ S U ( 3 ) L × S U ( 3 ) R Chiral Perturbation Theory. We review the determination of the $$B_K$$ B K parameter of neutral kaon mixing as well as the additional four B parameters that arise in theories of physics beyond the Standard Model. For the heavy-quark sector, we provide results for $$m_c$$ m c and $$m_b$$ m b as well as those for the decay constants, form factors, and mixing parameters of charmed and bottom mesons and baryons. These are the heavy-quark quantities most relevant for the determination of CKM matrix elements and the global CKM unitarity-triangle fit. We review the status of lattice determinations of the strong coupling constant $$\alpha _s$$ α s . We consider nucleon matrix elements, and review the determinations of the axial, scalar and tensor bilinears, both isovector and flavor diagonal. Finally, in this review we have added a new section reviewing determinations of scale-setting quantities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Planning decentralized urban renewable energy systems using algal cultivation for closed-loop and resilient communities

To tackle climate challenges, communities need to harvest renewable energy and resources on site locally to close the loops for enhancing the resilience of communities facing unpredictable and uncertain future changes. A decentralization planning of urban renewable energy systems is proposed by treating urban waste streams and producing biomass through applying algal biotechnology. When applying algal technology as a renewable and decentralized energy source in urban systems, the overall performance can vary by levels of urban nutrients, solar and CO 2 resources, and the transportation cost when considering its application to different urban densities, urban form, and the spatial scale of urban settings. This research explores three potential impacts on the algal system’s energy performance: (1) urban density, (2) urban form in different contexts, and (3) spatial scale. The research examines the impacts by testing urban settings given in actual contexts in Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Four neighborhoods representing the high-density urban, mid-density urban, mixed suburban, and typical suburban areas are investigated. The density-scale–performance relationships are explored through testing different urban forms of neighborhoods in both hypothetical and actual neighborhood settings. A GIS-based model is developed to estimate the overall energy performance of the decentralized renewable energy system in urban environments. Results show that the energy performance is positive mainly for high-density urban neighborhoods with small-to-medium scales, up to 0.36 MJ per ton of municipal solid wastes for actual settings and 0.37 MJ for hypothetical cases. Neighborhoods with higher density have higher energy performance while up scaling has negative effects on the energy performance with a low degree of significance. Optimal scales are found as a 1-km radius in real test beds and 1.3 km in hypothetical settings, in which the results show trade-offs between scaling effects in the system efficiency gain and the transportation cost increase.

Quan, Steven Jige↗

DOE OSTI2024

When energy doesn’t add up: use of an energyshed framework in assessing progress towards renewable energy transitions

Global progress in energy transitions to support climate mitigation goals has been slower than anticipated; this has prompted shifts away from traditional paradigms of regulated energy ownership towards a model of energy democratization by local communities and individuals. For example, in the United States, local communities in over 250 cities, counties, and states have made pledges to reach 100% renewable electrification by target dates ranging from 2020 to 2050. However, the availability of infrastructure and the competition for renewable energy resources, as well as lack of awareness of these limitations, present significant barriers to overcome. In this study, we explored a subset of 31 of these cities to assess their current electricity generation and how much further they have to go to meet their goals. Through an energyshed framework, we estimated powerplant electricity allocation to each city assuming competition for power from various renewable and non-renewable resource types, as well as look at the ‘best case scenario’ assuming 100% allocation of renewable-sourced electricity for a handful of cities in order to understand the existing and planned energy mixes for 2021 and the following 20 years. It is likely most cities will meet 10% of their energy demand with renewable energy, with best cases scenarios reaching between 35% and 65% renewable penetration, within the next 20–30 years. This highlights the need for infrastructural development in the energy sector, as well as intentional planning efforts in order to make these energy goals a reality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗