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DOE OSTI2025

Coherency-Constrained Spectral Clustering for Power Network Reduction

This paper presents a methodology for reducing the complexity of large-scale power network models using spectral clustering, aggregation of electrical components, and cost function approximation. Two approaches are explored using unconstrained and constrained spectral clustering to determine areas for effective system reduction. Once the system areas are determined, both loads and generators by type are aggregated, and their new cost function is approximated through polynomial curve-fitting or statistical methods. The performance of reduced networks is evaluated in terms of their ability to follow the true daily cost of the original system over a 24-hour period considering a set of several days. Two test systems are taken as test beds. Application of the methodology to a modified version of the IEEE 39-bus system reduces it from 17 generators to a 4-bus system and 9 generators with about 93% of accuracy. Similarly, the IEEE 118-bus system is reduced from 19 generators to a 3-bus system with three aggregated units achieving over 99% of accuracy. These findings address scalability challenges and enhance accuracy for high and mid-loading level conditions, and by aggregating thermal units with similar cost functions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Zero-Emissions Roadmap for Oakland County

This document outlines a strategic pathway for Oakland County, Michigan to achieve zero emissions by 2050 under the Clean Energy to Communities (C2C) Program. The report encompasses analyses and high-level modeling to guide Oakland County in its emission reduction goals. Key methods include establishing an emissions inventory baseline with ongoing evaluation of future projects’ emissions impacts. Core elements include decommissioning old infrastructure, enhancing energy efficiency, deploying hybrid and ground-source heat pumps, and transitioning to electric fleets. It is proposed to structure the planning process into 5-year strategic plans to make the decarbonization process manageable. The document also emphasizes the need for reassessment of goals and periodic updates to remain adaptive to technological advancements and funding considerations. A matrixed approach for evaluating projects by cost and emissions savings is suggested to optimize decision-making given finite resources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

DC-Link Capacitor Design for a Neutral-Point-Less Three-Level Dual-Phase Inverter for Traction Application

Conventional multilevel inverters, such as neutralpoint-clamped and T-type inverters, have gained popularity in electric vehicle applications due to their advantages, including high voltage range, high power capability, low switching losses, low total harmonic distortion, and low electromagnetic interference. However, these traditional multilevel inverters require a neutral point connection to generate a zero-voltage vector. The neutral point current oscillates at three times the fundamental frequency, leading to voltage imbalance and overvoltage stress on the power modules. Additionally, the use of two stacked DC-link capacitors increases the volume required for the same overall capacitance and complicates packaging due to ripple current and heat dissipation from separate components. This is a significant concern for traction drive units, where space is limited. In this paper, a neutral-point-less multilevel dual threephase inverter topology is investigated for traction inverter applications. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed topology effectively retains the benefits of multilevel operation while utilizing a single DC-link capacitor. The inverter model was simulated in conjunction with an industry-standard battery model to evaluate the potential for capacitor size reduction compared to a conventional three-level inverter.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Structure-Preserving Decorated Particle Method for the Vlasov-Poisson System

We revisit the Scovel-Weinstein framework (Scovel & Weinstein, CPAM 1994) for reducing the Vlasov-Poisson system while preserving its Hamiltonian structure. Standard particle-in-cell (PIC) algorithms approximate the distribution function by macro-particles with position and velocity. In contrast, Scovel-Weinstein decorated particles involve additional shape degrees of freedom, while maintaining a finite-dimensional reduction with Hamiltonian structure inherited from the continuum model. Although the original work established this structure three decades ago, its computational potential has remained largely unexplored. We present a practical implementation of the Scovel-Weinstein model and compare it with a standard PIC algorithm. Numerical experiments demonstrate that macro-particles in standard PIC can be replaced by far fewer decorated particles while retaining comparable accuracy. This decorated particle approach offers a new structure-preserving paradigm for kinetic plasma simulation.

65M75, 70H05, 70G65↗

DOE OSTI2025

Personalized and uncertainty-aware coronary hemodynamics simulations: From Bayesian estimation to improved multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Non-invasive simulations of coronary hemodynamics have improved clinical risk stratification and treatment outcomes for coronary artery disease, compared to relying on anatomical imaging alone. However, simulations typically use empirical approaches to distribute total coronary flow amongst the arteries in the coronary tree, which ignores patient variability, the presence of disease, and other clinical factors. Further, uncertainty in the clinical data often remains unaccounted for in the modeling pipeline. We present an end-to-end uncertainty-aware pipeline to (1) personalize coronary flow simulations by incorporating vessel-specific coronary flows as well as cardiac function; and (2) predict clinical and biomechanical quantities of interest with improved precision, while accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data. We assimilate patient-specific measurements of myocardial blood flow from clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging to estimate branch-specific coronary artery flows. Simulated noise in the clinical data is used to estimate the joint posterior distributions of the model parameters using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, the posterior predictive distribution for the relevant quantities of interest is determined using a new approach combining multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation with non-linear, data-driven dimensionality reduction. This leads to improved correlations between high- and low-fidelity model outputs. Our framework accurately recapitulates clinically measured cardiac function as well as branch-specific coronary flows under measurement noise uncertainty. We observe substantial reductions in confidence intervals for estimated quantities of interest compared to single-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation and state-of-the-art multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods. This holds especially true for quantities of interest that showed limited correlation between the low- and high-fidelity model predictions. In addition, the proposed multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimators are significantly cheaper to compute than traditional estimators, under a specified confidence level or variance. The proposed pipeline for personalized and uncertainty-aware predictions of coronary hemodynamics is based on routine clinical measurements and recently developed techniques for CT myocardial perfusion imaging. The proposed pipeline offers significant improvements in precision and reduction in computational cost.

Bayesian parameter estimation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive model for evaluating voltage losses and performance improvements in thin-film photovoltaic devices

Progress of state-of-the-art and next-generation thin-film photovoltaic devices is often stymied by open-circuit voltage (𝑉 oc ) that is significantly lower than theoretical and practical limits. Yet, effectively diagnosing the primary sources of voltage loss remains challenging. Herein, a sequence of device-level characterization techniques and simulations are employed to identify and rank loss mechanisms. For the research-based Cd⁡(Se,Te) device under study, most of the loss was at the front semiconductor heterointerface due to a clifflike conduction-band offset that lowered the recombination activation energy. Additional losses due to band tails were quantified by photoluminescence analysis. The latter provided the absorption coefficient and activation energy reduction associated with band tails as inputs to device models. Simulations showed that alleviating front-interface issues would improve 𝑉 oc , but it would then be limited by bulk recombination. Further improvement of the bulk would then lead to back-contact limitations. Reducing band tails is beneficial in any circumstance. In conclusion, this analysis provides guidance for reaching toward the radiative 𝑉 oc limit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leptogenesis in parity solutions to the strong CP problem and Standard Model parameters

We study the simplest theories with exact spacetime parity that solve the strong CP problem and successfully generate the cosmological baryon asymmetry via decays of right-handed neutrinos. Lower bounds are derived for the masses of the right-handed neutrinos and for the scale of spontaneous parity breaking, v R . For generic thermal leptogenesis, v R ≳ 10 12 GeV, unless the small observed neutrino masses arise from fine-tuning. We compute v R in terms of the top quark mass, the QCD coupling, and the Higgs boson mass and find this bound is consistent with current data at 1σ. Future precision measurements of these parameters may provide support for the theory or, if v R is determined to be below 10 12 GeV, force modifications. However, modified cosmologies do not easily allow reductions in v R — no reduction is possible if leptogenesis occurs in the collisions of domain walls formed at parity breaking, and at most a factor 10 reduction is possible with non-thermal leptogenesis. Standard Model parameters that yield low values for v R can only be accommodated by having a high degree of degeneracy among the right-handed neutrinos involved in leptogenesis. If future precision measurements determine v R to be above 10 12 GeV, it is likely that higher-dimensional operators of the theory will yield a neutron electric dipole moment accessible to ongoing experiments. This is especially true in a simple UV completion of the neutrino sector, involving gauge singlet fermions, where the bound from successful leptogenesis is strengthened to v R ≳ 10 13 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

How nitrogen and oxygen shape SRF cavity performance

Nitrogen and oxygen-based surface treatments have revolutionized the performance of superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavities, enabling them to reach higher gradients and lower losses. However, the exact mechanisms by which these treatments improve cavity performance remain largely unknown. This work provides new insights into the role of nitrogen and oxygen in SRF cavity performance by using time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS) to precisely quantify the concentrations and depth profiles of these impurities within niobium cutouts. We correlate these impurity profiles with detailed cavity performance measurements, including surface resistance and quality factor, and compare our findings with predictions from BCS theory. The results demonstrate that while both nitrogen and oxygen enhance performance, ten times more oxygen is required to achieve the same reduction in BCS resistance as interstitial nitrogen. We present a potential model in which the observed variation arises from nitrogen's greater effectiveness in trapping hydrogen, thus reducing the formation of niobium hydrides and enhancing superconducting gap.

Hu, Hannah [Chicago U.]↗

DOE OSTI2025

A novel bacterial protein family that catalyses nitrous oxide reduction

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a driver of global warming and climate change, has reached unprecedented concentrations in Earth’s atmosphere. Current N 2 O sources outpace N 2 O sinks, emphasizing the need for comprehensive understanding of processes that consume N 2 O. Microbes that express the enzyme N 2 O reductase (N 2 OR) convert N 2 O to climate change-neutral dinitrogen (N 2 ). Known N 2 ORs belong to the canonical clade I and clade II NosZ reductases and are considered key enzymes for N 2 O reduction. Here we report a previously unrecognized protein family with a role in N 2 O reduction, clade III lactonase-type N 2 OR (L-N 2 OR), which diverges in sequence from canonical NosZ but conserves three-dimensional protein structural features. Integrated physiological, metagenomic, proteomic and structural modelling studies demonstrate that L-N 2 ORs catalyse N 2 O reduction. L-N 2 OR genes occur in several phyla, predominantly in uncultured taxa with broad geographic distribution. Our findings expand the known diversity of N 2 ORs and implicate previously unrecognized taxa (for example, Nitrospinota) in N 2 O consumption. In conclusion, the expansion of N 2 OR diversity and the identification of a novel type of catalyst for N 2 O reduction advances the understanding of N 2 O sinks, has implications for greenhouse gas emission and climate change modelling, and expands opportunities for innovative biotechnologies aimed at curbing N 2 O emissions.

He, Guang 何广 [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (U↗

DOE OSTI2026

China's Contribution to Arctic Black Carbon Declined From 2009 to 2022

Black carbon (BC) aerosol is an important driver of Arctic warming, and China used to be a major contributor to the Arctic BC burden through long-range atmospheric transport. Here we show that China's contribution declined significantly from 2009 to 2022, primarily due to reductions in domestic BC emissions following the implementation of clean air policies. Global chemistry-transport model simulations indicate a relative decline of ∼3% yr −1 ( p < 0.05) in China's Arctic BC contribution, exceeding the decrease rate in the underlying emission inventory. Sensitivity simulations further suggest that climate change-induced shifts in atmospheric transport may have amplified this decline. Observations of aerosol absorption coefficients (σ ap ) at Arctic background observatories revealed steeper declines in σ ap when modeled China-to-total BC ratios were higher. Moreover, σ ap correlated positively with modeled BC from China, with stronger relationships as the modeled China-to-total BC ratios increased. Together, these results provide robust evidence that China's emission reductions have diminished its role in Arctic BC, contributing an estimated 0.02 W m −2 decrease in the direct radiative effect during the Arctic haze season.

GEOS-chem model↗

DOE OSTI2025

Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study

Transportation is currently the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, at about a third of the total. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require substantial reductions in transportation emissions across passenger and freight travel. Here we leverage a model intercomparison study to explore the role of transportation in scenarios achieving net-zero economy-wide CO 2 emissions by 2050. We find the transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel in the U.S. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shifting and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

An Anisotropic Yield and Damage Material Model to Improve the Contact Pressure Analysis in a Biomass Shredding System

Size reduction systems used in biomass processing break biomass into smaller pieces by utilizing the kinetic energy from the sharp rotating blades. Abrasive and/or erosive wear caused by biomass comminution results in blade wear of the sharp edged cutters, deteriorating the process efficiency. Here, this study aims to optimize the blade design and improve the system efficiency by attempting to understand the interactions between the blades and biomass particles. Since real-time monitoring of these interactions is impractical during operation, mechanical simulations offer a viable alternative for investigating the shredding process. Yet, the irregular geometry and complex mechanical properties of biomass—such as the anisotropic nature of woodchips and their nonlinear fracture behavior—pose significant challenges for accurately simulating contact pressure. In this work an anisotropic yield material model, along with a damage initiation and evolution function, is applied to the woodchip particle to study the contact pressure on shredder blade, offering a scientific basis for improved blade design and process efficiency. This approach can be extended to other biomass processing systems with similar anisotropic feedstocks, making it a valuable tool for advancing sustainable biomass utilization.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wind Turbine Rotor Design Using High-Fidelity Aerostructural Optimization

Large wind turbines yield more energy but demand careful aeroelastic blade design. Coupled multiphysics design strategies can reduce wind energy costs by exploiting fluid-structure interactions. This work presents the first high-fidelity aerostructural optimization study of a large wind turbine rotor. We use blade-resolved fluid dynamics and structural solvers in a monolithic gradient-based optimization framework to explore steady-state torque and blade mass tradeoffs. The coupled-adjoint approach computes gradients efficiently, enabling the optimization of over 100 structural and geometric parameters simultaneously. Our optimization study modifies a DTU 10 MW benchmark with a simplified structure and isotropic material properties. The tightly coupled optimizations increase torque by 14% while reducing rotor mass by 9% or reduce blade mass by 27% while maintaining torque. Blade-resolved models provide greater design freedom, enabling 5% higher mass reductions than conventional parameterizations at equal torque. This framework paves the way for more detailed high-fidelity optimization studies to complement conventional design approaches.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spherical tokamak physics research in preparation for the operation of NSTX-U

The National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) is preparing to resume operation, representing a crucial step toward realizing compact, cost-effective fusion pilot plants. In advance of this, extensive modeling and data analysis have been conducted to advance the physics basis for low-aspect-ratio, high-performance plasma regimes, focusing on three core objectives: confinement and stability, power and particle handling, and steady-state operation. Significant progress has been made in understanding the electron temperature flattening in high-β plasmas, which is shown to be driven by a complex interplay of magnetohydrodynamic instabilities (e.g. non-resonant infernal modes), fast-ion-driven Alfvén eigenmodes, and electron and ion-scale micro-instabilities, particularly Kinetic Ballooning Modes (KBMs), whose destabilization is strongly dependent on parallel magnetic field fluctuations (δB ∥ ). Furthermore, a new gyrokinetic critical pedestal model was developed, accurately predicting pedestal structure by identifying KBMs as the primary stability limit, offering a critical constraint for future high-confinement scenarios. To address the challenge of high heat flux, novel liquid lithium plasma-facing components were modeled. The analysis confirmed that lithium vapor shielding is a self-regulating mechanism for heat mitigation, while also emphasizing that strong main ion parallel flow is essential to minimize core lithium contamination. Finally, progress toward steady-state operation was anchored by developing the required physics basis and control tools. This includes predictive modeling for reversed magnetic shear sustainment, demonstrating that magnetic island-induced bootstrap current reduction is negligible in STs, and advancing real-time control and disruption avoidance capabilities. The development of high-speed surrogate models (e.g. MMMNet) provides computationally efficient tools vital for non-inductive scenario optimization and integrated, low-disruptivity operations planned for NSTX-U.

NSTX-U↗

DOE OSTI2025

LASSO for CALPHAD Model Selection Enables Data-Efficient Thermodynamic Modeling: An Application in Thermochemical Hydrogen Production Materials

Phenomenological CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) models, widely used for multicomponent materials, often contain a considerable number of parameters and require fitting using data from a relatively small number of experimental measurements or theoretical calculations. Sometimes these parameters are introduced for the purpose of improving model fits but without clear physical justification, which leads to overparametrized models with poor generalization performance. Automated approaches for optimal model selection based on the available data therefore become critical. Here, in this work, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-based approach is developed for model selection by leveraging the linearity of the CALPHAD model with respect to its parameters to convert the model selection and fitting to a LASSO minimization problem. We demonstrate its utility for thermodynamic modeling of thermochemical hydrogen (TCH) production materials using lanthanum strontium manganite (LSM) as an example. Various TCH-relevant properties, including oxygen stoichiometry as a function of oxygen partial pressure, enthalpy of reduction, and entropy of reduction, are successfully predicted with reasonable accuracy using a minimal set of model parameters. Importantly, the model selection and fitting involve minimal human decision; it can therefore be applied to high-throughput DFT defect calculations and yield efficient workflows for TCH material modeling and optimization.

CALPHAD↗

DOE OSTI2025

AK112: Full Waveform Inversion Tomography of Alaska Improves Waveform Fits While Imaging Crustal, Mantle, and Slab Structure

We report a full waveform inversion tomography model of Alaska and the surrounding regions, inferring radially anisotropic shear and isotropic compressional wavespeeds by fitting complete waveforms from 120 regional earthquakes. Our multiscale approach inverted time–frequency phase misfits (maximum period of 100 s), starting with a minimum period of 40 s and ending at 20 s in 7 stages and 112 total iterations. The model (AK112) was evaluated by computing the misfits for 36 independent validation events. We find that misfit reductions were large and equal (∼55%) for both the inversion and validation data sets, providing confidence in the model. AK112 also provides much better waveform fits compared to other reported models for the region, including an isotropic version of itself, highlighting the importance of anisotropy. The model resolves known crustal, upper mantle, and slab structure to depths of 100 km with new detail: sedimentary basins in the Alaskan Shelf, Cook Inlet, and Colville basins, among others; discontinuous lithospheric structure across major terrane boundaries; and subducting slab geometry and back‐arc volcanic sources. In addition to tectonic interpretations, the model enables full waveform simulations for long‐period earthquake ground motions and source characterization (e.g., moment tensor and finite‐fault inversion).

Rodgers, Arthur [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2024

3D Multiresolution Velocity Model Fusion with Probability Graphical Models

ABSTRACT The variability in spatial resolution of seismic velocity models obtained via tomographic methodologies is attributed to many factors, including inversion strategies, ray-path coverage, and data integrity. Integration of such models, with distinct resolutions, is crucial during the refinement of community models, thereby enhancing the precision of ground-motion simulations. Toward this goal, we introduce the probability graphical model (PGM), combining velocity models with heterogeneous resolutions and nonuniform data point distributions. The PGM integrates data relations across varying resolution subdomains, enhancing detail within low-resolution (LR) domains by utilizing information and prior knowledge from high-resolution (HR) subdomains through a maximum posterior problem. Assessment of efficacy, utilizing both 2D and 3D velocity models—consisting of synthetic checkerboard models and a fault-zone model from Ridgecrest, California—demonstrates noteworthy improvements in accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art fusion techniques. Specifically, we find reductions of 30% and 44% in computed travel-time residuals for 2D and 3D models, respectively, as compared to conventional smoothing techniques. Unlike conventional methods, the PGM’s adaptive weight selection facilitates preserving and learning details from complex, nonuniform HR models and applies the enhancements to the LR background domain.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Karhunen–Loève deep learning method for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation

We evaluate the performance of the Karhunen-Loève Deep Neural Network (KL-DNN) framework for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation models. In the surrogate model, the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions are used for the dimensionality reduction of the number of unknown parameters and variables, and a deep neural network is employed to relate the reduced space of parameters to that of the state variables. The KL-DNN surrogate model is used to formulate a maximum-a-posteriori-like least-squares problem, which is randomized to draw samples of the posterior distribution of the parameters. We test the proposed framework for a hypothetical unconfined aquifer via comparison with the forward MODFLOW and inverse PEST++ iterative ensemble smoother (IES) solutions as well as the state-of-the-art Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator networks (DeepONets) operator learning surrogate models. Our results show that the KL-DNN surrogate model outperforms FNO and DeepONet for forward predictions. For solving inverse problems, the randomized algorithm provides the same or more accurate Bayesian predictions of the parameters than IES as evidenced by the higher log-predictive probability of both the estimated parameter field and the forecast hydraulic head. The posterior mean obtained from the randomized algorithm is closer to the reference parameter field than that obtained with FNO as the maximum a posteriori estimate.

Approximate Bayesian inference↗