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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
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NASA NTRS2006

Realistic Covariance Prediction For the Earth Science Constellations

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellations (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellations and other orbiting space objects. One component of the risk assessment process is computing the collision probability between two space objects. The collision probability is computed via Monte Carlo techniques as well as numerically integrating relative probability density functions. Each algorithm takes as inputs state vector and state vector uncertainty information for both objects. The state vector uncertainty information is expressed in terms of a covariance matrix. The collision probability computation is only as good as the inputs. Therefore, to obtain a collision calculation that is a useful decision-making metric, realistic covariance matrices must be used as inputs to the calculation. This paper describes the process used by NASA Goddard's Earth Science Mission Operations Project to generate realistic covariance predictions for three of the ESC satellites: Aqua, Aura, and Terra

Duncan, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2006

Realistic Covariance Prediction for the Earth Science Constellation

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellation (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellation and other orbiting space objects. One component of the risk assessment process is computing the collision probability between two space objects. The collision probability is computed using Monte Carlo techniques as well as by numerically integrating relative state probability density functions. Each algorithm takes as inputs state vector and state vector uncertainty information for both objects. The state vector uncertainty information is expressed in terms of a covariance matrix. The collision probability computation is only as good as the inputs. Therefore, to obtain a collision calculation that is a useful decision-making metric, realistic covariance matrices must be used as inputs to the calculation. This paper describes the process used by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center's Earth Science Mission Operations Project to generate realistic covariance predictions for three of the Earth Science Constellation satellites: Aqua, Aura and Terra.

Duncan, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2009

Proton Upset Monte Carlo Simulation

The Proton Upset Monte Carlo Simulation (PROPSET) program calculates the frequency of on-orbit upsets in computer chips (for given orbits such as Low Earth Orbit, Lunar Orbit, and the like) from proton bombardment based on the results of heavy ion testing alone. The software simulates the bombardment of modern microelectronic components (computer chips) with high-energy (.200 MeV) protons. The nuclear interaction of the proton with the silicon of the chip is modeled and nuclear fragments from this interaction are tracked using Monte Carlo techniques to produce statistically accurate predictions.

O'Neill, Patrick M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Development of an Uncertainty Model for the National Transonic Facility

This paper introduces an uncertainty model being developed for the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to propagate standard uncertainties of measured values through the NTF data reduction equations to calculate the combined uncertainties of the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients and freestream properties. The uncertainty propagation approach to assessing data variability is compared with ongoing data quality assessment activities at the NTF, notably check standard testing using statistical process control (SPC) techniques. It is shown that the two approaches are complementary and both are necessary tools for data quality assessment and improvement activities. The SPC approach is the final arbiter of variability in a facility. Its result encompasses variation due to people, processes, test equipment, and test article. The uncertainty propagation approach is limited mainly to the data reduction process. However, it is useful because it helps to assess the causes of variability seen in the data and consequently provides a basis for improvement. For example, it is shown that Mach number random uncertainty is dominated by static pressure variation over most of the dynamic pressure range tested. However, the random uncertainty in the drag coefficient is generally dominated by axial and normal force uncertainty with much less contribution from freestream conditions.

Walter, Joel A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Trajectory Guidance for Mars Robotic Precursors: Aerocapture, Entry, Descent, and Landing

Future crewed missions to Mars require improvements in landed mass capability beyond that which is possible using state-of-the-art Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems. Current systems are capable of an estimated maximum landed mass of 1-1.5 metric tons (MT), while human Mars studies require 20-40 MT. A set of technologies were investigated by the EDL Systems Analysis (SA) project to assess the performance of candidate EDL architectures. A single architecture was selected for the design of a robotic precursor mission, entitled Exploration Feed Forward (EFF), whose objective is to demonstrate these technologies. In particular, inflatable aerodynamic decelerators (IADs) and supersonic retro-propulsion (SRP) have been shown to have the greatest mass benefit and extensibility to future exploration missions. In order to evaluate these technologies and develop the mission, candidate guidance algorithms have been coded into the simulation for the purposes of studying system performance. These guidance algorithms include aerocapture, entry, and powered descent. The performance of the algorithms for each of these phases in the presence of dispersions has been assessed using a Monte Carlo technique.

Sostaric, Ronald R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Parametric Testing of Launch Vehicle FDDR Models

For the safe operation of a complex system like a (manned) launch vehicle, real-time information about the state of the system and potential faults is extremely important. The on-board FDDR (Failure Detection, Diagnostics, and Response) system is a software system to detect and identify failures, provide real-time diagnostics, and to initiate fault recovery and mitigation. The ERIS (Evaluation of Rocket Integrated Subsystems) failure simulation is a unified Matlab/Simulink model of the Ares I Launch Vehicle with modular, hierarchical subsystems and components. With this model, the nominal flight performance characteristics can be studied. Additionally, failures can be injected to see their effects on vehicle state and on vehicle behavior. A comprehensive test and analysis of such a complicated model is virtually impossible. In this paper, we will describe, how parametric testing (PT) can be used to support testing and analysis of the ERIS failure simulation. PT uses a combination of Monte Carlo techniques with n-factor combinatorial exploration to generate a small, yet comprehensive set of parameters for the test runs. For the analysis of the high-dimensional simulation data, we are using multivariate clustering to automatically find structure in this high-dimensional data space. Our tools can generate detailed HTML reports that facilitate the analysis.

Schumann, Johann↗
NASA NTRS2011

Elemental Mercury Diffusion Processes and Concentration at the Lunar Poles

In 2009, the Lyman Alpha Mapping Project (LAMP) spectrograph onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) spacecraft made the first detection of element mercury (Hg) vapor in the lunar exosphere after the Lunar Crater Observing and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) Centaur rocket impacted into the Cabeus crater in the southern polar region of the Moon. The lunar regolith core samples from the Apollo missions determined that Hg had a devolatilized pattern with a concentration gradient increasing with depth, in addition to a layered pattern suggesting multiple episodes of burial and volatile loss. Hg migration on the lunar surface resulted in cold trapping at the poles. We have modeled the rate at which indigenous Hg is lost from the regolith through diffusion out of lunar grains. We secondly modeled the migration of Hg vapor in the exosphere and estimated the rate of cold-trapping at the poles using a Monte Carlo technique. The Hg vapor may be lost from the exosphere via ionization, Jeans escape, or re-impact into the surface causing reabsorption.

Moxley, Frederick↗
NASA NTRS2012

Modeling Phase-Aligned Gamma-Ray and Radio Millisecond Pulsar Light Curves

Since the discovery of the first eight gamma-ray millisecond pulsars (MSPs) by the Fermi Large Area Telescope, this population has been steadily expanding. Four of the more recent detections, PSR J00340534, PSR J1939+2134 (B1937+21; the first MSP ever discovered), PSR J1959+2048 (B1957+20; the first discovery of a black widow system), and PSR J2214+3000, exhibit a phenomenon not present in the original discoveries: nearly phase-aligned radio and gamma-ray light curves (LCs). To account for the phase alignment, we explore models where both the radio and gamma-ray emission originate either in the outer magnetosphere near the light cylinder or near the polar caps. Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to search for best-fit model parameters, we obtain reasonable LC fits for the first three of these MSPs in the context of altitude-limited outer gap (alOG) and two-pole caustic (alTPC) geometries (for both gamma-ray and radio emission). These models differ from the standard outer gap (OG)/two-pole caustic (TPC) models in two respects: the radio emission originates in caustics at relatively high altitudes compared to the usual conal radio beams, and we allow both the minimum and maximum altitudes of the gamma-ray and radio emission regions to vary within a limited range (excluding the minimum gamma-ray altitude of the alTPC model, which is kept constant at the stellar radius, and that of the alOG model, which is set to the position-dependent null charge surface altitude). Alternatively, phase-aligned solutions also exist for emission originating near the stellar surface in a slot gap scenario (low-altitude slot gap (laSG) models). We find that the alTPC models provide slightly better LC fits than the alOG models, and both of these give better fits than the laSG models (for the limited range of parameters considered in the case of the laSG models). Thus, our fits imply that the phase-aligned LCs are likely of caustic origin, produced in the outer magnetosphere, and that the radio emission for these pulsars may come from close to the light cylinder. In addition, we were able to constrain the minimum and maximum emission altitudes with typical uncertainties of 30% of the light cylinder radius. Our results therefore describe a third gamma-ray MSP subclass, in addition to the two previously found by Venter et al.: those with LCs fit by standard OG/TPC models and those with LCs fit by pair-starved polar cap models.

Venter, C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and Analysis of Cosmic Ray Effects in Electronics). The Single Event Figure of Merit method was also revised to use the solar minimum galactic cosmic ray spectrum and extended to circular orbits down to 200 km at any inclination. More recently a series of commercial codes was developed by TRAD (Test & Radiations) which includes the OMERE code which calculates single event effects. There are other error rate prediction methods which use Monte Carlo techniques. In this chapter the analytic methods for estimating the environment within spacecraft will be discussed.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Multiple Scattering of Laser Pulses in Snow Over Ice: Modeling the Potential Bias in ICESat Altimetry

The primary goal of NASA's current ICESat and future ICESat2 missions is to map the altitude of the Earth's land ice with high accuracy using laser altimetry technology, and to measure sea ice freeboard. Ice however is a highly transparent optical medium with variable scattering and absorption properties. Moreover, it is often covered by a layer of snow with varying depth and optical properties largely dependent on its age. We describe a modeling framework for estimating the potential altimetry bias caused by multiple scattering in the layered medium. We use both a Monte Carlo technique and an analytical diffusion model valid for optically thick media. Our preliminary numerical results are consistent with estimates of the multiple scattering delay from laboratory measurements using snow harvested in Greenland, namely, a few cm. Planned refinements of the models are described.

Davis, A. B.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Use of Polarization Lidar for Investigation of Meteorological Formations

This paper presents the results of theoretical and experimental, investigations of depolarization characteristics of different meteorological formations. Experimental investigations are carried out with a monostatic lidar. The ruby laser radiation is polarized in a vertical plane. The radiation reflected is accepted by a lens system of 150 rom in diameter and a viewing angle of 12' and further it is divided by Wollaston prism into the components polarized orthogonally. In this case the principal plane of the prism is exposed parallel with the laser polarization plane. Investigations show the degree of radiation polarization, reflected from water clouds, to be changed within 1/0.7 (seldom up to 0.6) depending on their density. In most cases a signal reflected from the cloud leading edge is polarized completely. The time shift is observed between polarized and crosspolarized components of a Fignal, reflected from a cloud, depending on the density of a meteorological object. While penetrating into the cloud depth a degree of polarization decreases up to 0.8-0.7, and the character of this decrease is different for various types of clouds. For crystal clouds the shift between the components of the reflected signal is not observed and the magnitude of polarization degree amounts to 0.1/0.3 in comparison with water clouds. The polarization degree of radiation reflected by fog is not less than 0.6, and that in the rains of average intensity (about 5 mm/h) is always about 1. The authors have suggested an algorithm of numerical solution of nonstationary transfer equation in the vector form to forecast the influence of multiple scattering effects on polarization characteristics of the lidar light signal. The method of statistical simulation (Monte-Carlo technique) forms the basis of the algorithm. Numerical estimates obtained for a model of stratocumulus at lambda = 0.6943 microns under boundary conditions close to the conditions of natural experiment being discussed proved to be in a good agreement with the results of observation. Specifically, Fig. 1 shows the profiles of polarization (p) versus depth (L) of the following drop formations: fog (curve 1) with horizontal meteorological visibility of 4 km two stratocumulus at a height of 1100 m with the attenuation factors delta = 0.01m(exp -1) (curve 2) and delta = 0.05m(exp -1) (curve 3). Curve 3 shows the results of numerical estimates and the value of their statistical error.

Balin, Yu. S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

DNA Repair Domain Modeling Can Predict Cell Death and Mutation Frequency for Wide Range Spectrum of Radiation

Exploration missions to Mars and other destinations raise many questions about the health of astronauts. The continuous exposure of astronauts to galactic cosmic rays is one of the main concerns for long-term missions. Cosmic ionizing radiations are composed of different ions of various charges and energies notably, highly charged energy (HZE) particles. The HZE particles have been shown to be more carcinogenic than low-LET radiation, suggesting the severity of chromosomal aberrations induced by HZE particles is one possible explanation. However, most mathematical models predicting cell death and mutation frequency are based on directly fitting various HZE dose response and are in essence empirical approaches. In this work, we assume a simple biological mechanism to model DNA repair and use it to simultaneously explain the low- and high-LET response using the exact same fitting parameters. Our work shows that the geometrical position of DNA repair along tracks of heavy ions are sufficient to explain why high-LET particles can induce more death and mutations. Our model is based on assuming DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) are repaired within repair domain, and that any DSBs located within the same repair domain cluster into one repair unit, facilitating chromosomal rearrangements and increasing the probability of cell death. We introduced this model in 2014 using simplified microdosimetry profiles to predict cell death. In this work, we collaborated with NASA Johnson Space Center to generate more accurate microdosimetry profiles derived by Monte Carlo techniques, taking into account track structure of HZE particles and simulating DSBs in realistic cell geometry. We simulated 224 data points (D, A, Z, E) with the BDSTRACKS model, leading to a large coverage of LET from ~10 to 2,400 keV/μm. This model was used to generate theoretical RBE for various particles and energies for both cell death and mutation frequencies. The RBE LET dependence is in agreement with experimental data known in human and murine cells. It suggests that cell shape and its orientation with respect to the HZE particle beam can modify the biological response to radiation. Such discovery will be tested experimentally and, if proven accurate, will be another strong supporting evidence for DNA repair domains and their critical role in interpreting cosmic radiation sensitivity.

Viger, Louise↗
NASA NTRS2018

Effects of Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number on Naive Predictions of Solar Cycle 25

The recalibration of the International Sunspot Number brings new challenges to predictions of Solar Cycle 25. One is that the list of extrema for the original series is no longer usable because the values of all maxima and minima are different for the new version of the sunspot number. Timings of extrema are less sensitive to the recalibration but are a natural result of the calculation. Predictions of Solar Cycle 25 published before 2016 must be converted to the new version of the sunspot number. Any prediction method that looks across the entire time span will have to be reconsidered because values in the nineteenth century were corrected by a larger factor than those in the twentieth century. We report a list of solar maxima and minima values and timings based on the recalibrated sunspot number. Naïve forecasts that depend only on the current values of the time series are common in economic studies. Several naïve predictions of Solar Cycle 25, the climatological average (180 ± 60), two versions of the inertial forecast, and two versions of the even-odd forecast, are derived from that table. The climatological average forecast is the baseline for more accurate predictions and the initial forecast in assimilative models of the Sun. It also provides the error estimate for Monte Carlo techniques that anticipate the long-term effects on the terrestrial environment. The other four predictions are shown to be statistically insignificant.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗
NASA NTRS2022

Look-up Table Approach for Uncertainty Determination for Operational Vicarious Calibration of Earth Imaging Sensors

Understanding the uncertainty of a vicarious calibration is essential for any application to Earth imaging sensors. The Radiometric Calibration Network provides SI-traceable spectral top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance from a network of ground sites and uses a look-up table (LUT) approach for uncertainty determination. The uncertainty LUT was derived using Monte Carlo techniques applied to the relevant solar geometry, surface, and atmospheric variables. While surface reflectance is typically the dominant uncertainty source, atmospheric contributions do play an important role, depending upon the exact scenario and conditions. This approach allows knowledge of TOA reflectance uncertainty to within 0.5%.

Brian N. Wenny↗
NASA NTRS2022

An Analytic Formulation of Ejecta Distributions over Airless Bodies

With recent plans to revisit the Moon by robotic and crewed spacecraft, there has been a renewed interest in understanding the ejecta environment on the Moon and other airless bodies. Meteoroid and asteroid impacts can excavate large amounts of material from the surface and, above an airless body, can send this material long distances on (essentially) ballistic orbits. This ejecta, while typically traveling slower than the impactor, can nevertheless achieve high enough speeds to endanger surface operations. Accurate knowledge of this phenomenon is necessary in order to design appropriate shielding for human activities, both for activities on the surface of the Moon and for orbiters in near-lunar space. This phenomenon is also important in the transport of particles above other Solar System objects, such as Jovian satellites, where this ejecta creates a kind of ever-present “halo” of particles around the gravitating body. While Monte Carlo techniques have been successfully used to model this environment, there are useful analytic expressions, developed for use in modeling the meteoroid environment, that can be used to describe this environment as well. Such analytic tools can shed light on the altitude, velocity, and directionality of these ejecta environments.

Mark Matney↗
NASA NTRS2022

Simultaneous Stoquasticity

Stoquastic Hamiltonians play a role in the computational complexity of the local Hamiltonian problem as well as the study of classical simulability. In particular, stoquastic Hamiltonians can be straightforwardly simulated using Monte Carlo techniques. We address the question of whether two or more Hamiltonians may be made simultaneously stoquastic via a unitary transformation. This question has important implications for the complexity of simulating quantum annealing where quantum advantage is related to the stoquasticity of the Hamiltonians involved in the anneal. We find that for almost all problems no such unitary exists and show that the problem of determining the existence of such a unitary is equivalent to identifying if there is a solution to a system of polynomial (in)equalities in the matrix elements of the initial and transformed Hamiltonians. Solving such a system of equations is NP-hard. We highlight a geometric understanding of this problem in terms of a collection of generalized Bloch vectors.

Jacob Bringewatt↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monocular Horizon Navigation

The Artemis program advances towards operations on the lunar surface, where precise surface localization is a driving need for safety and science. Using the observable horizon as an image landmark allows for estimating the photographer’s position. This work analyzes the application of Perspective-n-Point (PnP) algorithms to this lunar localization problem. Batch simulations using lunar topography display the accuracy and drawbacks of these methods. Monte Carlo techniques show the pipeline’s solutions as measurements provided to a navigation filter. When filtered, these solutions have position errors of 50 meters or better, which is similar to or better than the performance of other methods of surface localization.

optical navigation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced measurement techniques in quantum Monte Carlo: The permutation matrix representation approach

In a typical finite temperature quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulation, estimators for simple static observables such as specific heat and magnetization are known. With a great deal of system-specific manual labor, one can sometimes also derive more complicated non-local or even dynamic observable estimators. In contrast, we show that arbitrary static observables can be estimated within the permutation matrix representation (PMR) flavor for any Hamiltonian. We then generalize these results to general imaginary-time correlation functions and non-trivial integrated susceptibilities thereof. Finally, we demonstrate the practical versatility of our method by estimating various non-local, random observables for the transverse-field Ising model on a square lattice and a toy random model.

Permutation matrix representation↗