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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Annual cycle of aerosol properties over the central Arctic during MOSAiC 2019–2020 – light-extinction, CCN, and INP levels from the boundary layer to the tropopause

Abstract. The MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition was the largest Arctic field campaign ever conducted. MOSAiC offered the unique opportunity to monitor and characterize aerosols and clouds with high vertical resolution up to 30 km height at latitudes from 80 to 90∘ N over an entire year (October 2019 to September 2020). Without a clear knowledge of the complex aerosol layering, vertical structures, and dominant aerosol types and their impact on cloud formation, a full understanding of the meteorological processes in the Arctic, and thus advanced climate change research, is impossible. Widespread ground-based in situ observations in the Arctic are insufficient to provide these required aerosol and cloud data. In this article, a summary of our MOSAiC observations of tropospheric aerosol profiles with a state-of-the-art multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar aboard the icebreaker Polarstern is presented. Particle optical properties, i.e., light-extinction profiles and aerosol optical thickness (AOT), and estimates of cloud-relevant aerosol properties such as the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are discussed, separately for the lowest part of the troposphere (atmospheric boundary layer, ABL), within the lower free troposphere (around 2000 m height), and at the cirrus level close to the tropopause. In situ observations of the particle number concentration and INPs aboard Polarstern are included in the study. A strong decrease in the aerosol amount with height in winter and moderate vertical variations in summer were observed in terms of the particle extinction coefficient. The 532 nm light-extinction values dropped from >50 Mm−1 close to the surface to <5 Mm−1 at 4–6 km height in the winter months. Lofted, aged wildfire smoke layers caused a re-increase in the aerosol concentration towards the tropopause. In summer (June to August 2020), much lower particle extinction coefficients, frequently as low as 1–5 Mm−1, were observed in the ABL. Aerosol removal, controlled by in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging processes (widely suppressed in winter and very efficient in summer) in the lowermost 1–2 km of the atmosphere, seems to be the main reason for the strong differences between winter and summer aerosol conditions. A complete annual cycle of the AOT in the central Arctic could be measured. This is a valuable addition to the summertime observations with the sun photometers of the Arctic Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). In line with the pronounced annual cycle in the aerosol optical properties, typical CCN number concentrations (0.2 % supersaturation level) ranged from 50–500 cm−3 in winter to 10–100 cm−3 in summer in the ABL. In the lower free troposphere (at 2000 m), however, the CCN level was roughly constant throughout the year, with values mostly from 30 to 100 cm−3. A strong contrast between winter and summer was also given in terms of ABL INPs which control ice production in low-level clouds. While soil dust (from surrounding continents) is probably the main INP type during the autumn, winter, and spring months, local sea spray aerosol (with a biogenic aerosol component) seems to dominate the ice nucleation in the ABL during the summer months (June–August). The strong winter vs. summer contrast in the INP number concentration by roughly 2–3 orders of magnitude in the lower troposphere is, however, mainly caused by the strong cloud temperature contrast. A unique event of the MOSAiC expedition was the occurrence of a long-lasting wildfire smoke layer in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Our observations suggest that the smoke particles frequently triggered cirrus formation close to the tropopause from October 2019 to May 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Variation in supercurrent connectivity and vortex pinning of state-of-the-art pulsed laser deposited RE Ba 2 Cu 3 O 7- x coated conductors

REBa 2 Cu 3 O 7-x (REBCO, RE: rare earth) coated conductors (CCs) suffer from great critical current I c differences between different manufacturers, I c variations within individual manufacturers, and often significant lengthwise fluctuations. The understanding of such variations is complicated by the lack of a direct correlation between I c and the critical current density J c . In fact, although J c is the fundamental property determined by the local vortex pinning landscape, I c is often limited by variable current blocking mechanisms. An important practical complexity is commercial practices of performing J c and I c evaluations based on I c at 77 K and self-field (sf), where connectivity variation dominates over vortex pinning variations. However, at higher fields and lower temperatures, vortex pinning becomes more complex and highly variable, making predictions of I c and J c at arbitrary temperature T, magnetic field H, and field orientation θ, quite uncertain. To address some aspects of this problem, we conducted detailed spool-to-spool performance characterization on recently manufactured REBCO CCs. Despite J c (77 K, sf) varies by only ∼11%, J c (77 K, 1 T) of its minimum and maximum (for H//ab-plane) show variations of ∼21% and ∼32%, respectively. This emphasizes the shortcoming in using J c (77 K, sf) as parameter for evaluating even the low field performance. An even more remarkable spool-to-spool J c variation of ∼68% was observed at 20 K and 15 T for H//ab-plane. To identify the origin of such lack of reproducibility we performed microstructural characterizations, which revealed, within the REBCO layer, large variation in the density of copper oxide (CuO x ) particles ranging from 0.1 to 2 μm in size. We believe that they play a decisive role in reducing the effective cross-section of the REBCO layer by not simply blocking current themselves, but also by nucleating off-axis REBCO grains, whose misoriented grain boundaries adversely impact REBCO grain-to-grain connectivity. The REBCO growth associated with high density CuO x particles also leads to the more disordered spatial arrangement of BaHfO 3 precipitate arrays, which, when self-aligning along the ab-planes, generate stronger pinning enhancing J c (H//ab) at all temperatures. In this way, we established that variations of both connectivity and vortex pinning are thus directly coupled. Our results also explain why the so-called ‘lift-factor’, typically defined by the ratio between I c (T, H) and I c (77 K, sf), frequently turns out to be unreliable.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

In-Flight Gain Monitoring of SPIDER’s Transition-Edge Sensor Arrays

We report experiments deploying large arrays of transition-edge sensors (TESs) often require a robust method to monitor gain variations with minimal loss of observing time. We propose a sensitive and non-intrusive method for monitoring variations in TES responsivity using small square waves applied to the TES bias. We construct an estimator for a TES’s small-signal power response from its electrical response that is exact in the limit of strong electrothermal feedback. We discuss the application and validation of this method using flight data from SPIDER, a balloon-borne telescope that observes the polarization of the cosmic microwave background with more than 2000 TESs. This method may prove useful for future balloon- and space-based instruments, where observing time and ground control bandwidth are limited.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

An a priori evaluation of a principal component and artificial neural network based combustion model in diesel engine conditions

A principal component analysis (PCA) and artificial neural network (ANN) based chemistry tabulation approach is presented. ANNs are used to map the thermochemical state onto a low-dimensional manifold consisting of five control variables that have been identified using PCA. Three canonical configurations are considered to train the PCA-ANN model: a series of homogeneous reactors, a nonpremixed flamelet, and a two-dimensional lifted flame. The performance of the model in predicting the thermochemical manifold of a spatially-developing turbulent jet flame in diesel engine thermochemical conditions is a priori evaluated using direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. The PCA-ANN approach is compared with a conventional tabulation approach (tabulation using ad hoc defined control variables and linear interpolation). The PCA-ANN model provides higher accuracy and requires several orders of magnitude less memory. Here, these observations indicate that the PCA-ANN model is superior for chemistry tabulation, especially for modelling complex chemistries that present multiple combustion modes as observed in diesel combustion. The performance of the PCA-ANN model is then compared to the optimal estimator, i.e. the conditional mean from the DNS. The results indicate that the PCA-ANN model gives high prediction accuracy, comparable to the optimal estimator, especially for major species and the thermophysical properties. Higher errors are observed for the minor species and reaction rate predictions when compared to the optimal estimator. It is shown that the prediction of minor species and reaction rates can be improved by using training data that exhibits a variation of parameters as observed in the turbulent flame. The output of the ANN is analysed to assess mass conservation. It is observed that the ANN incurs a mean absolute error of 0.05% in mass conservation. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that this error can be reduced by modifying the cost function of the ANN to penalise for deviation from mass conservation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Part-to-Part Flow Variations on Overall Effectiveness and Life of Rotating Turbine Blades

Abstract As firing temperatures in gas turbine engines continue to increase to achieve high efficiencies, components in the main gas path must be protected with cooling flows to ensure lifing targets are met. Manufacturing variations, however, influence the performance and life characteristics of components with the same nominal design. This study presents blade flow and overall cooling effectiveness measurements for nine true-scale, aero engine turbine blades with realistic manufacturing variations. Flow measurements were made through each blade at a fixed pressure ratio to determine flow variability between holes and between blades. Infrared thermography was used to capture spatially-resolved temperature measurements reported as overall effectiveness on the same nine blades under high-speed rotating conditions at the Steady Thermal Aero Research Turbine Laboratory. Thermal performance was correlated with blade flow performance indicating substantial blade-to-blade variations resulting from manufacturing differences. Measurements also indicated wide variations in cooling jet trajectories as well as overall cooling effectiveness. Finally, the observed blade-to-blade variations in effectiveness were scaled to engine conditions with lifing estimates showing some blades would be expected to last only half as long as others due to manufacturing variability.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stability Functions in the Stable Surface Layer Derived from the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) Scheme

It is desirable that a surface layer scheme in an atmospheric numerical model is consistent with an atmospheric boundary layer scheme incorporated in the same model. In this study, stability functions based on Monin–Obukhov similarity theory for momentum and heat, φ m and φ h , in the stable surface layer are derived from the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) scheme. The resulting stability functions are approximated by φ m = 1 + 4.8z/L and φ h = 0.74 + 6.0z/L, which can be analytically integrated with respect to height z to obtain momentum and heat fluxes, where L is the Obukhov length. The fluxes thus, obtained are compared with those acquired from stability functions in four previous studies: they are nearly the same as those from two of them, and show better agreement with observational data of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean experiment (SHEBA) over sea ice than those from the other two studies. Detailed comparisons of the results of the MYNN scheme with the SHEBA data suggest that significant variations of the fluxes observed during “winter” when the ice was covered with dry snow may have been caused by those of the surface roughness around the observational site. The stability functions obtained from the MYNN scheme predict that the bulk and flux Richardson numbers approach critical values of 0.26 and 0.21, respectively, in the limit of z/L → ∞. These critical values result from the Kolmogorov hypothesis applied to the turbulent dissipation in the MYNN scheme and are considered to correspond to a transition from Kolmogorov to non-Kolmogorov turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of mechanical properties and deformation behavior of highly irradiated 316L stainless steel from target modules at the Spallation Neutron Source using digital image correlation analysis

Tensile specimens with irradiation doses ranging from approximately 0.7 to 7.6 displacements per atom (dpa) were fabricated from 316L samples removed from Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) target vessels after service. Tensile tests were performed in conjunction with digital image correlation (DIC) characterization, which permitted detailed analysis of the strain distribution and deformation behavior of the specimen gauge sections during testing. The results show, while considerable hardening (500–700 MPa increase in yield strength) occurred in the 316L SNS target material with increasing dose, appreciable ductility (19–23% total elongation) remained in the material after irradiation to 7.6 dpa in the mixed neutron/proton environment of the SNS target region. The DIC data showed the strain distribution and deformation behavior of all irradiated specimens were nonuniform during testing. Strain localization in the form of deformation bands or “hotspots” was observed during testing, and in some specimens, the bands propagated as deformation waves along the gauge section. The “traveling wave” deformation behavior affected the amount of elongation each specimen achieved, and the scatter in the elongation data was attributed to the large variation in deformation behavior observed among different specimens. Bands of localized strain, or deformation bands, oriented at specific angles were observed in two-dimensional plots of the strain distribution in the gauge sections of some specimens. Overall, this paper describes the experimental procedures, results, and deformation behavior of tensile specimens from SNS targets after service and illustrates the value of DIC characterization during tensile testing of irradiated materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

XMM-Newton and SRG/eROSITA observations of the isolated neutron star candidate 4XMM J 022141.5-735632

We report the results of follow-up investigations of a possible new thermally emitting isolated neutron star (INS), 4XMM J022141.5-735632, using observations from XMM-Newton and Spectrum Roentgen Gamma (SRG) eROSITA. The analysis is complemented by Legacy Survey imaging in the optical and near-infrared wavelengths. The X-ray source, the first to be targeted by XMM-Newton in an effort to identify new INS candidates from the fourth generation of the XMM-Newton serendipitous source catalogue Data Release 9 (4XMM-DR9), shows a remarkably soft energy distribution and a lack of catalogued counterparts; the very high X-ray-to-optical flux ratio virtually excludes any other identification than an INS. Within current observational limits, no significant flux variation or change of spectral state is registered over nearly ten years. Future dedicated observations, particularly to search for pulsations, are crucial to shed further light on the nature of the X-ray source and relations to other Galactic neutron stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraining time dependent dark matter signals from the Sun

Dark matter (DM) particles captured by the Sun can produce high-energy electrons outside the Sun through annihilating into meta-stable mediators. The corresponding cosmic-ray electron signals observed by the space-based experiments will be time dependent due to the orbital motion of the space-based detectors. The shape of this time dependence is predictable given the orbital information of the detectors. Since the high-energy CR electron (with energy E > 100 GeV) fluxes are expected to be constant in time, non-observation of such time variation can be used to place upper limits on the DM annihilation cross section. Here we analyze the time dependence of dark matter cosmic-ray signals in three space-based experiments: AMS-02, DAMPE and CALET. Under the assumption that no time dependent signal is observed, we derive the 95% C.L. exclusion limits on the signal strength from the current data. We map our limits onto the parameter space of the dark photon model and find that the constraints are comparable with that derived from the supernova SN1987A.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

gdess: A framework for evaluating simulated atmospheric CO 2 in Earth System Models

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and global warming. Climate-carbon feedbacks are often studied and estimated using Earth System Models (ESMs), which couple together multiple model components—including the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere, and cryosphere—to jointly simulate mass and energy exchanges within and between these components. Despite tremendous advances, model intercomparisons and benchmarking are aspects of ESMs that warrant further improvement (Fer et al., 2021; Smith et al., 2014). Such benchmarking is critical because comparing the value of state variables in these simulations against observed values provides evidence for appropriately refining model components; moreover, researchers can learn much about Earth system dynamics in the process (Randall et al., 2019). We introduce `gdess` (a.k.a., Greenhouse gas Diagnostics for Earth System Simulations), which parses observational datasets and ESM simulation output, combines them to be in a consistent structure, computes statistical metrics, and generates diagnostic visualizations. In its current incarnation, `gdess` facilitates evaluating a model's ability to reproduce observed temporal and spatial variations of atmospheric CO 2 . The diagnostics implemented modularly in `gdess` support more rapid assessment and improvement of model-simulated global CO 2 sources and sinks associated with land and ocean ecosystem processes. We intend for this set of automated diagnostics to form an extensible, open source framework for future comparisons of simulated and observed concentrations of various greenhouse gases across Earth system models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heterogeneous mantle effects on the behavior of SmKS waves and outermost core imaging

Seismic traveltime anomalies of waves that traverse the uppermost 100–200 km of the outer core have been interpreted as evidence of reduced seismic velocities (relative to radial reference models) just below the core–mantle boundary (CMB). These studies typically investigate differential traveltimes of SmKS waves, which propagate as P waves through the shallowest outer core and reflect from the underside of the CMB m times. The use of SmKS and S(m-1)KS differential traveltimes for core imaging are often assumed to suppress contributions from earthquake location errors and unknown and unmodelled seismic velocity heterogeneity in the mantle. The goal of this study is to understand the extent to which differential SmKS traveltimes are, in fact, affected by anomalous mantle structure, potentially including both velocity heterogeneity and anisotropy. Velocity variations affect not only a wave's traveltime, but also the path of a wave, which can be observed in deviations of the wave's incoming direction. Since radial velocity variations in the outer core will only minimally affect the wave path, in contrast to other potential effects, measuring the incoming direction of SmKS waves provides an additional diagnostic as to the origin of traveltime anomalies. Here we use arrays of seismometers to measure traveltime and direction anomalies of SmKS waves that sample the uppermost outer core. We form subarrays of EarthScope's regional Transportable Array stations, thus measuring local variations in traveltime and direction. We observe systematic lateral variations in both traveltime and incoming wave direction, which cannot be explained by changes to the radial seismic velocity profile of the outer core. Moreover, we find a correlation between incoming wave direction and traveltime anomaly, suggesting that observed traveltime anomalies may be caused, at least in part, by changes to the wave path and not solely by perturbations in outer core velocity. Modelling of 1-D ray and 3-D wave propagation in global 3-D tomographic models of mantle velocity anomalies match the trend of the observed traveltime anomalies. Overall, we demonstrate that observed SmKS traveltime anomalies may have a significant contribution from 3-D mantle structure, and not solely from outer core structure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heterogeneous mantle effects on the behavior of SmKS waves and outermost core imaging

Seismic traveltime anomalies of waves that traverse the uppermost 100–200 km of the outer core have been interpreted as evidence of reduced seismic velocities (relative to radial reference models) just below the core–mantle boundary (CMB). These studies typically investigate differential traveltimes of SmKS waves, which propagate as P waves through the shallowest outer core and reflect from the underside of the CMB m times. The use of SmKS and S(m- 1)KS differential traveltimes for core imaging are often assumed to suppress contributions from earthquake location errors and unknown and unmodelled seismic velocity heterogeneity in the mantle. The goal of this study is to understand the extent to which differential SmKS traveltimes are, in fact, affected by anomalous mantle structure, potentially including both velocity heterogeneity and anisotropy. Velocity variations affect not only a wave’s traveltime, but also the path of a wave, which can be observed in deviations of the wave’s incoming direction. Since radial velocity variations in the outer core will only minimally affect the wave path, in contrast to other potential effects, measuring the incoming direction of SmKS waves provides an additional diagnostic as to the origin of traveltime anomalies. Here we use arrays of seismometers to measure traveltime and direction anomalies of SmKS waves that sample the uppermost outer core. We form subarrays of EarthScope’s regional Transportable Array stations, thus measuring local variations in traveltime and direction. We observe systematic lateral variations in both traveltime and incoming wave direction, which cannot be explained by changes to the radial seismic velocity profile of the outer core. Moreover, we find a correlation between incoming wave direction and traveltime anomaly, suggesting that observed traveltime anomalies may be caused, at least in part, by changes to the wave path and not solely by perturbations in outer core velocity. Modelling of 1-D ray and 3-D wave propagation in global 3-D tomographic models of mantle velocity anomalies match the trend of the observed traveltime anomalies. Overall, we demonstrate that observed SmKS traveltime anomalies may have a significant contribution from 3-D mantle structure, and not solely from outer core structure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Role of three-body dynamics in nucleon-deuteron correlation functions

Correlation functions of hadrons can be accessed in high-energy collisions of atomic nuclei, revealing information about the underlying interaction. This work complements experimental efforts to study nucleon-deuteron Nd—with N=p (proton) or N=n (neutron)—correlations with theory evaluations using different techniques. The correlation functions C nd and C pd are calculated based on a scattering wave function, extending previous benchmarks for the Nd scattering matrix to this new observable. We use hyperspherical harmonics and Faddeev techniques with one of the widely used nucleon-nucleon (NN) interactions, the Argonne v18 potential. Moreover, in the low-energy region we perform additional calculations in the framework of pionless effective field theory. The pd correlation function is computed in the large-energy region to make contact with a recent measurement by the ALICE Collaboration. We show that the scattering wave function has the proper dynamical input to describe an initial rise and subsequent oscillations of C pd as a function of the energy. Effects on the observables using different NN and three-nucleon potentials are evaluated with the conclusion that variations of around 2% are observed. Although these effects are small, future measurements can go beyond this accuracy, allowing for new detailed studies of strong interaction in light nuclear systems. Furthermore, the present study supports the current efforts devoted to the measurement of correlation functions in systems dominated by the strong interactions, such as pd, ppp, Λd, and ppΛ.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mechanical Behavior Assessment of Ti-6Al-4V ELI Alloy Produced by Laser Powder Bed Fusion

The present work correlates the quasi-static, tensile mechanical properties of additively manufactured Ti-6Al-4V extra low interstitial (ELI, Grade 23) alloy to the phase constituents, microstructure, and fracture surface characteristics that changed with post-heat treatment of stress relief (670 °C for 5 h) and hot isostatic pressing (HIP with 100 MPa at 920 °C for 2 h under an Ar atmosphere). Ti-6Al-4V ELI alloy tensile specimens in both the horizontal (i.e., X and Y) and vertical (Z) directions were produced by the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) technique. Higher yield strength (1141 MPa), higher tensile strength (1190 MPa), but lower elongation at fracture (6.9%), along with mechanical anisotropy were observed for as-stress-relieved (ASR) samples. However, after HIP, consistent and isotropic mechanical behaviors were observed with a slight reduction in yield strength (928 MPa) and tensile strength (1003 MPa), but with a significant improvement in elongation at fracture (16.1%). Phase constituents of acicular α' phase in ASR and lamellar α + β phases in HIP samples were observed and quantified to corroborate the reduction in strength and increase in ductility. The anisotropic variation in elongation at fracture observed for the ASR samples, particularly built in the build (Z) direction, was related to the presence of “keyhole” porosity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

From Intermolecular Interaction Energies and Observable Shifts to Component Contributions and Back Again: A Tale of Variational Energy Decomposition Analysis

Quantum chemistry in the form of density functional theory (DFT) calculations is a powerful numerical experiment for predicting intermolecular interaction energies. However, no chemical insight is gained in this way beyond predictions of observables. Energy decomposition analysis (EDA) can quantitatively bridge this gap by providing values for the chemical drivers of the interactions, such as permanent electrostatics, Pauli repulsion, dispersion, and charge transfer. These energetic contributions are identified by performing DFT calculations with constraints that disable components of the interaction. This review describes the second-generation version of the absolutely localized molecular orbital EDA (ALMO-EDA-II). The effects of different physical contributions on changes in observables such as structure and vibrational frequencies upon complex formation are characterized via the adiabatic EDA. Example applications include red- versus blue-shifting hydrogen bonds; the bonding and frequency shifts of CO, N 2 , and BF bound to a [Ru(II)(NH 3 ) 5 ] 2 + moiety; and the nature of the strongly bound complexes between pyridine and the benzene and naphthalene radical cations. Additionally, the use of ALMO-EDA-II to benchmark and guide the development of advanced force fields for molecular simulation is illustrated with the recent, very promising, MB-UCB potential.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO

Can multi-annual variations in the frequency of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and mid-latitude circulation regimes be skilfully predicted? Recent advances in seasonal forecasting have shown that mid-latitude climate variability does exhibit significant predictability. However, atmospheric predictability has generally been found to be quite limited on multi-annual timescales. New decadal prediction experiments from NCAR are found to exhibit remarkable skill in reproducing the observed multi-annual variations of wintertime blocking frequency over the North Atlantic and of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) itself. This is partly due to the large ensemble size that allows the predictable component of the atmospheric variability to emerge from the background chaotic component. The predictable atmospheric anomalies represent a forced response to oceanic low-frequency variability that strongly resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), correctly reproduced in the decadal hindcasts thanks to realistic ocean initialization and ocean dynamics. The occurrence of blocking in certain areas of the Euro-Atlantic domain determines the concurrent circulation regime and the phase of known teleconnections, such as the NAO, consequently affecting the stormtrack and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Therefore, skilfully predicting the decadal fluctuations of blocking frequency and the NAO may be used in statistical predictions of near-term climate anomalies, and it provides a strong indication that impactful climate anomalies may also be predictable with improved dynamical models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preserving nonlinear constraints in variational flow filtering data assimilation

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems of interest obey nonlinear physical constraints, and the corresponding dynamics is confined to a certain sub-manifold of the state space. Standard data assimilation techniques applied to such systems yield posterior states lying outside the manifold, violating the physical constraints. This work focuses on particle flow filters which use stochastic differential equations to evolve state samples from a prior distribution to samples from an observation-informed posterior distribution. The variational Fokker-Planck (VFP)—a generic particle flow filtering framework—is extended to incorporate non-linear, equality state constraints in the analysis. To this end, two algorithmic approaches that modify the VFP stochastic differential equation are discussed: (i) VFPSTAB, to inexactly preserve constraints with the addition of a stabilizing drift term, and (ii) VFPDAE, to exactly preserve constraints by treating the VFP dynamics as a stochastic differential-algebraic equation (SDAE). Additionally, an implicit-explicit time integrator is developed to evolve the VFPDAE dynamics. The strength of the proposed approach for constraint preservation in data assimilation is demonstrated on three test problems: the double pendulum, Korteweg-de-Vries, and the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗