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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Quantifying impacts of heat waves on power grid operation

Climate change is projected to cause an increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts. Such changes present planning and operating challenges and risks to many economic sectors. In the electricity sector, statistics of extreme events in the past have been used to help plan for future peak loads, determine associated infrastructure requirements, and evaluate operational risks, but industry-standard planning tools have yet to be coupled with or informed by temperature models to explore the impacts of the "new normal" on planning studies. For example, high ambient temperatures during heat waves reduce the output capacity and efficiency of gas fired combustion turbines just when they are needed most to meet peak demands. This paper describes the development and application of a production cost and unit commitment model coupled to high resolution, hourly temperature data and a temperature dependent load model. The coupled system has the ability to represent the impacts of hourly temperatures on load conditions and available capacity and efficiency of combustion turbines, and therefore capture the potential impacts on system reliability and production cost. Ongoing work expands this capability to address the impacts of water availability and temperature on power grid operation.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2022

Managing Power Systems-Induced Wildfire Risks Using Optimal Scheduled Shutoffs: Preprint

The growing demands for electricity and the increase in extreme weather conditions are putting unprecedented pressure on our electrical grids. Oftentimes, this pressure leads to electrical components failures which might ignite wildfires. This work develops a novel model to balance the reliability of power networks operations and risks of wildfires ignition by optimizing the operational schedule of power transmission networks considering time-varying risk measures that consider exogenous and operational factors. Energy storage systems are considered to deliver power during peak wildfire hours and enable temporal load shifting. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program that maximizes a weighted sum of the served power demand and the reduction in grid-induced wildfires risk. The results demonstrate the ability of the model to reduce wildfires risks significantly without considerable load shedding.

energy scheduling↗
DOE OSTI2017

Risk Importance Measures in the Designand Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

This monograph presents and discusses risk importance measures as quantified by the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models of nuclear power plants (NPPs) developed according to the current standards and practices. Usually, PRA tools calculate risk importance measures related to a single ?basic event? representing particular failure mode. This is, then, reflected in many current PRA applications. The monograph focuses on the concept of ?component-level? importance measures that take into account different failure modes of the component including common-cause failures (CCFs). In opening sections the roleof risk assessment in safety analysis of an NPP is introduced and discussion given of ?traditional?, mainly deterministic, design principles which have been established to assign a level of importance to a particular system, structure or component. This is followed by an overview of main risk importance measures for risk increase and risk decrease from current PRAs. Basic relations which exist among the measures are shown. Some of the current practical applications of risk importancemeasures from the field of NPP design, operation and regulation are discussed. The core of the monograph provides a discussion on theoreticalbackground and practical aspects of main risk importance measures at the level of ?component? as modeled in a PRA, starting from the simplest case, single basic event, and going toward more complexcases with multiple basic events and involvements in CCF groups. The intent is to express the component-level importance measures via theimportance measures and probabilities of the underlying single basic events, which are the inputs readily available from a PRA model andits results. Formulas are derived and discussed for some typical cases. The formulas and their results are demonstrated through some practicalexamples, done by means of a simplified PRA model developed in and run by RiskSpectrum? tool, which are presented in the appendices. The monograph concludes with discussion of limitations of the use of risk importance measures and a summary of component-level importance cases evaluated.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/TPS Analysis and Testing

The current status of aerothermal and thermal protection system modeling for civilian entry missions is reviewed. For most such missions, the accuracy of our simulations is limited not by the tools and processes currently employed, but rather by reducible deficiencies in the underlying physical models. Improving the accuracy of and reducing the uncertainties in these models will enable a greater understanding of the system level impacts of a particular thermal protection system and of the system operation and risk over the operational life of the system. A strategic plan will be laid out by which key modeling deficiencies can be identified via mission-specific gap analysis. Once these gaps have been identified, the driving component uncertainties are determined via sensitivity analyses. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is presented for physics-based probabilistic uncertainty analysis of aerothermodynamics and thermal protection system material response modeling. These data are then used to advocate for and plan focused testing aimed at reducing key uncertainties. The results of these tests are used to validate or modify existing physical models. Concurrently, a testing methodology is outlined for thermal protection materials. The proposed approach is based on using the results of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses discussed above to tailor ground testing so as to best identify and quantify system performance and risk drivers. A key component of this testing is understanding the relationship between the test and flight environments. No existing ground test facility can simultaneously replicate all aspects of the flight environment, and therefore good models for traceability to flight are critical to ensure a low risk, high reliability thermal protection system design. Finally, the role of flight testing in the overall thermal protection system development strategy is discussed.

Wright, Michael J.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Operational Challenges of Extended Dry Storage of Spent Nuclear Fuel - 12550

As a result of the termination of the Yucca Mountain used fuel repository program and a continuing climate of uncertainty in the national policy for nuclear fuel disposition, the likelihood has increased that extended storage, defined as more than 60 years, and subsequent transportation of used nuclear fuel after periods of extended storage may become necessary. Whether at the nation's 104 nuclear energy facilities, or at one or more consolidated interim storage facilities, the operational challenges of extended storage and transportation will depend upon the future US policy for Used Fuel Management and the future Regulatory Framework for EST, both of which should be developed with consideration of their operational impacts. Risk insights into the regulatory framework may conclude that dry storage and transportation operations should focus primarily on ensuring canister integrity. Assurance of cladding integrity may not be beneficial from an overall risk perspective. If assurance of canister integrity becomes more important, then mitigation techniques for potential canister degradation mechanisms will be the primary source of operational focus. If cladding integrity remains as an important focus, then operational challenges to assure it would require much more effort. Fundamental shifts in the approach to design a repository and optimize the back-end of the fuel cycle will need to occur in order to address the realities of the changes that have taken place over the last 30 years. Direct disposal of existing dual purpose storage and transportation casks will be essential to optimizing the back end of the fuel cycle. The federal used fuel management should focus on siting and designing a repository that meets this objective along with the development of CIS, and possibly recycling. An integrated approach to developing US policy and the regulatory framework must consider the potential operational challenges that they would create. Therefore, it should be integral to these efforts to redefine retrievability to apply to the dual purpose cask, and not to apply to individual assemblies. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Digital risk analysis in nuclear engineering projects: Designing for safety, performance, reliability, and security

Cyber-informed engineering and security-by-design frameworks are important in promoting the need to identify cybersecurity concerns early in the systems engineering lifecycle so risks from adversarial cyber-attacks can be eliminated or reduced through engineering design practices. In addition to adversarial risk, risk in operational technology systems also includes non-adversarial and unintentional risk from other factors such as human performance errors, environmental conditions, design flaws, and device degradation or failure. This paper introduces a new concept for characterizing digital risk, both adversarial and non-adversarial, and provides the basis for initial research into a novel digital risk analysis approach focused on incorporating attack difficulty into a multi-attribute analysis technique using robust decision-making. This digital risk characterization is also used to frame a discussion on the challenges of competing objectives and competing stakeholder requirements in an integrated energy system project that incorporates a small modular reactor and industrial facility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2013

WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Weather Hazard Perception Capabilities for Remotely Piloted Aircraft in Wildland Fire Operations

Weather, specifically winds, are the most variable and least predictable of the weather-related elements that affect wildfire behavior.1 This leads to aviation operations which must deal with increased risks due to dynamic weather factors. Remotely piloted aircraft provide the opportunity to remove human loss of life from these risk consequences and mitigate the overall risks for air operations for fire suppression and dropping of retardant. UAS also allows the opportunity to continue fire suppression with nighttime operations. However, with the use of new technologies in aviation operations comes additional risk factors and the need for remote sensing capabilities to identify and permit navigation around extreme weather conditions, with turbulence being the most unforeseeable. This paper presents advanced concepts for weather hazard perception capabilities for remote pilot operators to include data and display techniques intended for dynamic environments and low altitude operations. This work can support the potential of weather sensing capabilities to create hazard maps to track high-risk weather patterns in mountainous regions. Advanced sensing may provide opportunity to locate extreme turbulence hazards for uninhabited aerial systems (UAS) and decrease the likelihood of flying into unknown weather conditions to enable safe operations to assist in wildfire air support.

Tyler L Willhite↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of a Sustained Lunar Presence

The Artemis Base Camp will be our first sustainable foothold on the lunar frontier. The base camp includes a lunar surface habitat, power systems, and infrastructure needed to develop capabilities on future missions to Mars. NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodologies tend to focus on in-flight Loss of Crew (LOC) or Loss of Vehicle (LOV) risk estimates for short mission durations. However, lunar habit support systems and power generation systems will need to continuously operate. Existing risk methodologies will need to adapt to understand risk drivers in new environments under different operating conditions, such as lunar dust and increased micro-meteoroid exposure. Insights from the nuclear and oil industries can provide guidance to NASA risk practitioners to tackle this new challenge.

risk assessment↗
NASA NTRS2021

Advanced Air Mobility and Safety Management Systems

Our current air transportation system has underserved markets, including local, regional, intraregional, and urban transportation of both people and cargo. Recent advances in aviation technology such as small highly-automated vehicles, electric aircraft, and automated air traffic are enabling business opportunities in these markets. Advanced Air Mobility, or AAM, refers to a community effort to overcome the gaps in operational rules, safety analysis, and overall acceptance, so that these new operations will be possible. For full details, please see: https://www.nasa.gov/aam As we think about how we can safely introduce these new operations, fundamental questions about how the structure of Safety Management Systems can be applied to AAM, and how that structure can be used to help us overcome the necessary technical and societal obstacles arise. Two of these questions are: • How do we tailor the requirements and desired level of monitoring and assessment to achieve safety given the breadth of possible operations and the associated risk of those operations? • How do we aid innovation by rapidly evaluating the safety of novel operations without losing associated rigor? We assume that a Safety Management System that enables these future systems will incorporate knowledge of the acceptable level of risk, and will utilize data science to automate the core monitor, assess and mitigate functions that will allow us to respond to risks and hazards in time to prevent safety incidents. In 2018, the National Academies proposed an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) that would advance these goals. (https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24962/in-time-aviation-safety-management-challenges-and-research-for-an) The National Academies made a clear distinction between in-time systems, in which hazards could be identified and risks mitigated in time to prevent incidents, and real-time systems, since many hazards and risks do not need real-time data and analysis to detect and mitigate.

In-Time Aviation Safety Management System↗
NASA NTRS2016

NASA's Space Launch System: An Evolving Capability for Exploration

Designed to meet the stringent requirements of human exploration missions into deep space and to Mars, NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle represents a unique new launch capability opening new opportunities for mission design. While SLS's super-heavy launch vehicle predecessor, the Saturn V, was used for only two types of missions - launching Apollo spacecraft to the moon and lofting the Skylab space station into Earth orbit - NASA is working to identify new ways to use SLS to enable new missions or mission profiles. In its initial Block 1 configuration, capable of launching 70 metric tons (t) to low Earth orbit (LEO), SLS is capable of not only propelling the Orion crew vehicle into cislunar space, but also delivering small satellites to deep space destinations. With a 5-meter (m) fairing consistent with contemporary Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles (EELVs), the Block 1 configuration can also deliver science payloads to high-characteristic-energy (C3) trajectories to the outer solar system. With the addition of an upper stage, the Block 1B configuration of SLS will be able to deliver 105 t to LEO and enable more ambitious human missions into the proving ground of space. This configuration offers opportunities for launching co-manifested payloads with the Orion crew vehicle, and a new class of secondary payloads, larger than today's cubesats. The evolved configurations of SLS, including both Block 1B and the 130 t Block 2, also offer the capability to carry 8.4- or 10-m payload fairings, larger than any contemporary launch vehicle. With unmatched mass-lift capability, payload volume, and C3, SLS not only enables spacecraft or mission designs currently impossible with contemporary EELVs, it also offers enhancing benefits, such as reduced risk and operational costs associated with shorter transit time to destination and reduced risk and complexity associated with launching large systems either monolithically or in fewer components. As this paper will demonstrate, SLS represents a unique new capability for spaceflight, and an opportunity to reinvent space by developing out-of-the-box missions and mission designs unlike any flown before.

Crumbly, Christopher M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Immersive Technologies for Human-in-the-Loop Lunar Surface Simulations

NASA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, continually seeks innovative solutions to enhance its operations, particularly in the realms of testing, evaluation, and training for future missions. Immersive technologies, such as virtual, augmented, and mixed reality have proven to be powerful tools for realistic, interactive, and engaging environments. This paper explores how the Simulation and Graphics Branch at NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) leverages immersive technology, modern commercial rendering engines, and physics-based systems simulations to develop human-in-the-loop systems for humanity’s return to the Moon through the Artemis program. When NASA returns to the Moon, astronauts will travel to the Moon’s South Pole where lighting conditions will cause a more complex operational environment. Human-in-the-loop testing plays a crucial role in NASA's mission planning, spacecraft and space systems development, and evaluation of operational scenarios. The development of immersive environments such as a lunar rover mockup at a video wall enables engineers and astronauts to simulate and experience mission scenarios, integrated spacecraft systems, and operational procedures in a relevant environment before deployment. By integrating realistic virtual environments, immersive technology allows for the visualization and interaction with virtual spacecraft models, mission landscapes, and complex operational tasks. This approach helps identify potential design flaws, operational challenges, and safety considerations. It also provides valuable insights for risk reduction and helps improve mission efficiency and effectiveness. With advanced motion tracking systems and custom virtual environments data can be gathered and evaluated to help NASA refine training protocols, develop specialized training procedures and optimize human-robotic interactions for future space missions. Furthermore, immersive technology offers opportunities for future training initiatives at NASA. The Virtual Reality Laboratory at JSC has pioneered training with Virtual Reality (VR) since the Hubble Space Telescope repair missions in the early 1990’s. Extended Reality (XR) simulations enable astronauts to rehearse complex spacewalks, spacecraft maneuvers, and extravehicular activities in a safe and controlled environment. By replicating the physical and cognitive challenges of space missions, immersive training experiences enhance astronauts' situational awareness, decision-making abilities, and adaptability to unexpected scenarios. Additionally, immersive technology facilitates collaborative training, allowing geographically dispersed crew and mission control personnel to engage in synchronized simulations, fostering teamwork and effective communication. The adoption of immersive technology in NASA's testing, evaluation, and future training programs has yielded significant benefits. By incorporating human-in-the-loop testing for studies involving Extra Vehicular Activities (EVA), surface mobility and landing systems, NASA can identify and mitigate risks, optimize operational procedures, and enhance mission success. Ultimately, immersive training experiences can empower astronauts to better navigate the complexities of space missions, ensuring their safety, productivity, and success in the dynamic and challenging environments they will experience at the Lunar South Pole.

Simulation Modeling Virtual Reality Immersive Tech↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Immersive Technologies for Human-in-the-Loop Lunar Surface Simulations

NASA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, continually seeks innovative solutions to enhance its operations, particularly in the realms of testing, evaluation, and training for future missions. Immersive technologies, such as virtual, augmented, and mixed reality have proven to be powerful tools for immersing users in realistic, interactive, and engaging environments. This paper explores how the Simulation and Graphics Branch at NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) leverages immersive technology, modern commercial rendering engines, and physics-based systems simulations to develop human-in-the-loop systems for humanity’s return to the Moon through the Artemis program. When NASA returns to the Moon, astronauts will travel to the Moon’s South Pole where lighting conditions will cause a more complex operational environment. Human-in-the-loop simulations play a crucial role in NASA’s mission planning, spacecraft and space systems development, and evaluation of operational scenarios. The development of immersive environments such as a lunar rover mockup at a video wall enables engineers and astronauts to simulate and experience mission scenarios, integrated spacecraft systems, and operational procedures in a relevant environment before deployment. By integrating realistic virtual environments, immersive technology allows for the visualization and interaction with virtual spacecraft models, mission landscapes, and complex operational tasks. This approach helps identify potential design flaws, operational challenges, and safety considerations. It also provides valuable insights for risk reduction and helps improve mission efficiency and effectiveness. With advanced motion tracking systems and custom virtual environments, data can be gathered and evaluated to help NASA refine training protocols, develop specialized training procedures, and optimize human-robotic interactions for future space missions. Furthermore, immersive technology offers opportunities for future training initiatives at NASA. The Virtual Reality Laboratory at JSC has pioneered training with Virtual Reality (VR) since the Hubble Space Telescope repair missions in the early 1990’s. Extended Reality (XR) simulations enable astronauts to rehearse complex spacewalks, spacecraft maneuvers, and extravehicular activities in a safe and controlled environment. By replicating the physical and cognitive challenges of space missions, immersive training experiences enhance astronauts’ situational awareness, decision-making abilities, and adaptability to unexpected scenarios. Additionally, immersive technology facilitates collaborative training, allowing geographically dispersed crew and mission control personnel to engage in synchronized simulations, fostering teamwork and effective communication. The adoption of immersive technology in NASA’s testing, evaluation, and future training programs has yielded significant benefits. By incorporating human-in-the-loop simulations for studies involving Extra Vehicular Activities (EVA), surface mobility and landing systems, NASA can identify and mitigate risks, optimize operational procedures, and enhance mission success. Ultimately, immersive simulation experiences can empower astronauts to better navigate the complexities of space missions, ensuring their safety, productivity, and success in the dynamic and challenging environments they will experience at the Lunar South Pole.

HITL↗
NASA NTRS2021

Leveraging NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive for Assessing Fire Susceptibility and Potential Impacts over Australia and California

Wildfires are a major concern around the globe because of the immediate impact they have on people's lives, local ecosystems, and the environment. Soil moisture is one of the most important factors that influences wildfire occurrences and spread. However, it is also one of the most challenging hydrological variables to measure routinely and accurately. Therefore, soil moisture is significantly underutilized in operational wildfire risk applications. Thus, the aim here is to use a well-established operational soil moisture product to isolate the soil moisture-fire relationship and assess the utility of using soil moisture as a leading indicator of potential fire risk. We evaluated the value of remotely-sensed soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) sensor for monitoring and predicting fire risk in Australia and California. We quantified the relationship between observed fire activity and soil moisture conditions and analyzed the soil moisture conditions for two extreme fire events. Our findings show that fire activity is strongly associated with soil moisture anomalies. Lagged correlation analysis demonstrated that a remote-sensing based soil moisture product could predict fire activity with a 1-2 month lead-time. Soil moisture anomalies consistently decreased in the months preceding fire occurrence, often from normal to drier conditions, according to a spatiotemporal analysis of soil moisture in two extreme fire events. Overall, our findings indicate that soil moisture conditions prior to large wildfires can aid in their prediction and operational satellite-based soil moisture products such as the one used here have real value for supporting wildfire susceptibility and impacts.

Nazmus Sazib↗
DOE OSTI2020

INTEGRATION OF FLEX EQUIPMENT AND OPERATOR ACTIONS IN PLANT FORCE-ON-FORCE MODELS WITH DYNAMIC RISK ASSESSMENT

The overall operation and maintenance cost to protect nuclear power plants accounts for approximately 7% of the total cost of power generation, with labor accounting for half of this cost. In the current research, from interaction with utilities and other stakeholders, it was determined that physical security forces account for nearly 20% of the entire workforce at several nuclear power plants. Labor costs continue to rise in the U.S., so any measures to reduce the cost of operating a nuclear power plant will need to include a reduction in labor. The physical security pathway within the DOE’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability program aims to lower the cost of physical security through directed research into modeling and simulation, application of advanced sensors or deployment of advanced weapons. This report presents a modeling and simulation framework for integrating Diverse and Flexible Mitigation Capability (FLEX) portable equipment performance with Force on Force models of a plant’s physical security posture. The generic framework is described in detail, followed by a case study of modeling an adversarial attack aimed at causing a radiological release by sabotaging the plant’s power supply and its ultimate heat sink capabilities at a hypothetical nuclear power plant. Two different FLEX deployment strategies, series and parallel, are modeled with distinct timelines. The results of the adversarial attack modeled in a commercial Force on Force tool are integrated with the FLEX deployment model in INL’s dynamic modeling tool EMRALD. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the distribution of the timeline in FLEX deployment strategies. The results demonstrate that, even in the extreme case of a successful adversarial attack, deployment of FLEX equipment can result in a significantly high likelihood of preventing radiological release. The modeling and simulation framework integrating FLEX equipment with Force on Force models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2011

Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

Boyer, Roger L.↗