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At least 271 records · Page 15

Comparative Analysis of Report-Back of Research Results Strategies for Personal Chemical Exposure Data

Background. Report-back of research results (RBRR) is ethically supported and highly requested by participants yet lacks broadly transferable guidelines for RBRR. Effective RBRR must be responsive to target audience needs and may not be addressed by a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. Objective. Within a subset of our 19 studies on RBRR, we had the unique opportunity to carry out a comparative analysis of RBRR strategies across cohorts with similar development and evaluation methods, yet distinct in life stage, geography, number and type of chemicals assessed, and community contexts. Methods. We highlight key outcomes from three environmental health studies: an ongoing New York, NY cohort (Fair Start; n=486) and a Detroit, MI cohort (CLEAR; n=34) assessing exposure to ambient urban pollution during pregnancy, and a longitudinal cohort in Houston, TX (Houston-3H) following Hurricane Harvey (n=312). Focus group and survey data were analyzed to identify lessons learned and explore how RBRR supports understanding of environmental health. Results. Commonalities emerged in RBRR development, design, organization, and data visualization, as well as in how RBRR can contribute to an understanding of health-environment connections. Differences included preferences for individual versus community level findings, as well as distinguishable contextual considerations. For pregnancy cohorts, messaging was framed with cultural sensitivity, and to avoid unintended consequences of parental guilt due to prenatal exposures. In the post-disaster Houston-3H study, participants requested additional transparency regarding sampling design and study rationale. Significance. All RBRR case studies reported chemicals without known regulatory or health guidelines, so results were contextualized within the study population. Participants across cohorts requested multi-study comparisons to better understand their results beyond their communities. While foundational RBRR elements (e.g. plain language, graphic organizers) may supersede cohort-specific differences, RBRR should be personalized to encompass perceptions of health across different life-stage, cultural, and environmental contexts.

Vogel, Taylor J.↗

Factors associated with emerging multimodal transportation behavior in the San Francisco Bay Area

Abstract This paper identifies the influence of demographic, local transportation environment, and individual preferences for transportation attributes on multimodal transportation behavior in an urban environment with emergent transportation mode availability. Multimodality is the use of more than one mode of transportation during a given timeframe. Multimodality has been considered a key component of sustainable and efficient transportation systems, as this travel behavior can represent a shift away from personal vehicle use to more sustainable transportation modes, especially in urban environments with diverse transportation systems and emergent shared transportation alternatives (e.g., carsharing, ridehailing, bike sharing). However, it is unclear what factors contribute towards people being more likely to exhibit multimodal transportation behavior in modern urban environments. We assessed commuting behavior based on a survey administered in the San Francisco Bay Area according to whether residents commuted (i) exclusively by vehicle, (ii) by a mix of vehicle and non-vehicle modes, or (iii) exclusively by non-vehicle modes. A classification tree approach identified correlations between commuting classes and demographic variables, preferences for transportation attributes, and location-based information. The characterization of commuting styles could inform regional transportation policy and design that aims to reduce vehicle use by identifying the demographic, preference, and location-based considerations correlated with each commuting style.

McAuliffe Wells, Emily↗

Technology transfer and other public policy implications of multi-national arrangements for the production of commercial airframes

A study to examine the question of technology transfer through international arrangements for production of commercial transport aircraft is presented. The likelihood of such transfer under various representative conditions was determined and an understanding of the economic motivations for, effects of, joint venture arrangements was developed. Relevant public policy implications were also assessed. Multinational consortia with U.S. participation were focused upon because they generate the full range of pertinent public issues (including especially technology transfer), and also because of recognized trends toward such arrangements. An extensive search and analysis of existing literature to identify the key issues, and in-person interviews with executives of U.S. and European commercial airframe producers was reviewed. Distinctions were drawn among product-embodied, process, and management technologies in terms of their relative possibilities of transfer and the significance of such transfer. Also included are observations on related issues such as the implications of U.S. antitrust policy with respect to the formation of consortia and the competitive viability of the U.S. aircraft manufacturing industry.

Gellman, A. J.↗

The Integrated Medical Model: Outcomes from Independent Review

In 2016, the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) v4.0 underwent an extensive external review in preparation for transition to an operational status. In order to insure impartiality of the review process, the Exploration Medical Capabilities Element of NASA's Human Research Program convened the review through the Systems Review Office at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The review board convened by GSFC consisted of persons from both NASA and academia with expertise in the fields of statistics, epidemiology, modeling, software development, aerospace medicine, and project management (see Figure 1). The board reviewed software and code standards, as well as evidence pedigree associated with both the input and outcomes information. The board also assesses the models verification, validation, sensitivity to parameters and ability to answer operational questions. This talk will discuss the processes for designing the review, how the review progressed and the findings from the board, as well as summarize the IMM project responses to those findings. Overall, the board found that the IMM is scientifically sound, represents a necessary, comprehensive approach to identifying medical and environmental risks facing astronauts in long duration missions and is an excellent tool for communication between engineers and physicians. The board also found IMM and its customer(s) should convene an additional review of the IMM data sources and to develop a sustainable approach to augment, peer review, and maintain the information utilized in the IMM. The board found this is critically important because medical knowledge continues to evolve. Delivery of IMM v4.0 to the Crew Health and Safety (CHS) Program will occur in the 2017. Once delivered for operational decision support, IMM v4.0 will provide CHS with additional quantitative capability in to assess astronaut medical risks and required medical capabilities to help drive down overall mission risks.

medical equipment↗

Visual feedback and guided balance training in an immersive virtual reality environment for lower extremity rehabilitation

Balance training is essential for physical rehabilitation procedures, as it can improve functional mobility and enhance cognitive coordination. However, conventional balance training methods may have limitations in terms of motivation, real-time objective feedback, and personalization, which a virtual reality (VR) setup may provide a better alternative. In this work, we present an immersive VR training environment for lower extremity balance rehabilitation with real-time guidance and feedback. The VR training environment immerses the user in a 3D ice rink model where a virtual coach (agent) leads them through a series of balance poses, and the user controls a trainee avatar with their own movements. Here we developed two coaching styles: positive-reinforcement and autonomous-supportive, and two viewpoints of the trainee avatar: first-person and third-person. The proposed environment was evaluated in a user study with healthy, non-clinical participants (n = 16, 24.4 ± 5.7 years old, 9 females). Our results show that participants showed stronger performance in the positive-reinforcement style compared to the autonomous-supportive style. Additionally, in the third-person viewpoint, the participants exhibited more stability in the positive-reinforcement style compared to the autonomous-supportive style. For viewpoint, participants exhibited stronger performance in the first-person viewpoint compared to third-person in the autonomous-supportive style, while they were comparable in the positive-reinforcement style. We observed no significant effects on the foot height and number of mistakes. Furthermore, we report the analysis of user performance with balance training poses and subjective measures based on questionnaires to assess the user experience, usability, and task load. The proposed VR balance training could offer an interactive, adaptive, and engaging environment and open new potential research directions for lower extremity rehabilitation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MEP: Mobility Energy Productivity Metric

In response to the need to assess fundamental improvements in mobility as technology provides new modes, methods, and opportunities in urban areas to connect people with goods, services, and employment, a mobility-energy productivity score (MEPS) has been developed. The MEPS fundamentally measures the potential of a multi-modal system to connect a person to a variety of services and activities that define a high-quality of life. The MEPS is measured relative to the convenience and energy needed to provide connectivity. Fundamentally derived from accessibility theory, the MEPS advances practice by using readily available travel time data (either from web-based APIs or outputs from an urban transportation model) combined with established parameters that reflect the energy intensity of various travel modes, and relative frequency of activity engagement. The construction of the MEPS allows for aggregation and disaggregation to the appropriate spatial, modal, and trip purpose resolution, as analysis needs dictate. The MEPS could be used to compare alternative futures related to technology, infrastructure investment, or policy, providing a much needed tool for planners, researchers, and analysts. In other words, the metric measures how efficiently connected a place is.

Hou, Yi↗

Evaluation of TDRSS-user orbit determination accuracy using batch least-squares and sequential methods

The development of the Real-Time Orbit Determination/Enhanced (RTOD/E) system as a prototype system for sequential orbit determination on a Disk Operating System (DOS) based Personal Computer (PC) is addressed. The results of a study to compare the orbit determination accuracy of a Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) user spacecraft obtained using RTOD/E with the accuracy of an established batch least squares system, the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS), is addressed. Independent assessments were made to examine the consistencies of results obtained by the batch and sequential methods. Comparisons were made between the forward filtered RTOD/E orbit solutions and definitive GTDS orbit solutions for the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS); the maximum solution differences were less than 25 m after the filter had reached steady state.

Oza, D. H.↗

Innovative Technologies for Efficient Pharmacotherapeutic Management in Space

Current and future Space exploration missions and extended human presence in space aboard the ISS will expose crew to risks that differ both quantitatively and qualitatively from those encountered before by space travelers and will impose an unknown risk of safety and crew health. The technology development challenges for optimizing therapeutics in space must include the development of pharmaceuticals with extended stability, optimal efficacy and bioavailability with minimal toxicity and side effects. Innovative technology development goals may include sustained/chronic delivery preventive health care products and vaccines, low-cost high‐efficiency noninvasive, non‐oral dosage forms with radio‐protective formulation matrices and dispensing technologies coupled with self‐reliant tracking technologies for quality assurance and quality control assessment. These revolutionary advances in pharmaceutical technology will assure human presence in space and healthy living on Earth. Additionally, the Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations advocates the use of health information technologies to effectively execute all aspects of medication management (prescribing, dispensing, and administration). The advent of personalized medicine and highly streamlined treatment regimens stimulated interest in new technologies for medication management. Intelligent monitoring devices enhance medication accountability compliance, enable effective drug use, and offer appropriate storage and security conditions for dangerous drug and controlled substance medications in remote sites where traditional pharmacies are unavailable. These features are ideal for Exploration Medical Capabilities. This presentation will highlight current novel commercial off‐the‐shelf (COTS) intelligent medication management devices for the unique dispensing, therapeutic drug monitoring, medication tracking, and drug delivery demands of exploration space medical operations.

Putcha, Lakshmi↗

Improving Efficacy and Safety of Pharmacological Treatment Through Precision Health and Pharmacogenomics

INTRODUCTION: Future spaceflight will require increased crew medical autonomy as exploration class missions expand in duration and distance from Earth, especially for Mars missions. As mission duration increases, it will be essential to have appropriate amounts of effective medication to ensure the maintenance of crew health and performance. Conversely, mass and volume constraints will become more severe as future spaceflight expands beyond low Earth orbit, where resupply is difficult or becomes impossible. These constraints thus convey an urgency to tailor medications for individual crewmembers and further examine appropriate dosing regimens. BACKGROUND: Precision Health is an exciting area of medicine focused on maintaining an individual’s health and performance through in-depth understanding of an individual’s unique clinical and environmental history, genetic makeup, and molecular profiles. This approach can be adapted to better predict, monitor, and address physiological responses to the spaceflight environment. A subset of this field is pharmacogenomics (PGX), the study of how the expressed genome impacts drug responses with the goal of prescribing the right dose of the right drug at the right time. Specifically, PGX testing provides valuable information on an individual’s precise allelic variations to guide physicians in making informed decisions on drug choice and dosing to avoid adverse events and maximize efficacy. The study goal was to identify which current space pharmacy drugs could be evaluated using PGX testing and to understand the potential impact on the health and wellness of the astronaut population. Additionally, we sought to evaluate clinically available FDA-approved PGX testing solutions to better understand its applicability. METHODS: A complete list of drugs on the ISS was analyzed for risk and likelihood of drug failure and PGX actionability. This analysis encompassed both astronauts’ personal medications, including supplements and over the counter drugs (n=151) contained in the ISS medical accessory kit (IMAK), and ISS MedKit formulary medications (n=95). Duplicate medications and different formulations were removed, which resulted in a total of 157 drugs used in the subsequent analysis. A 5x5 risk assessment table was produced by examining the likelihood of drug failure compared to the consequence of drug failure (LxC). Likelihood of individual drug failure was defined by whether existing processes are sufficient to prevent ineffective treatment or impactful side effect events, as ranked from 1 (very low, can easily be prevented) to 5 (very high, cannot be prevented) during a Mars mission. In contrast, the consequence of drug failure was defined by impact to safety, schedule, cost, or technical criteria and ranked from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high). An assessment of PGX reference laboratories is currently underway to evaluate sample requirements, benefit analysis (cost vs. utility of allele variant analysis), relevance to inflight medication usage, quality of reporting in enabling clinical application, and ease of integration into electronic medical records. RESULTS: Risk assessments (LxC 5x5 table) indicated 128 medications were in the green zone where risk is acceptable, with the remaining 29 of the medications in the yellow or red zone driven predominantly due to drug failure or safety concerns. We found that current PGX testing results could impact 21% of the total medications in the ISS MedKit and IMAK; of these, 9 medications currently have direct clinically actionable guidance available. Results of the clinical PGX solution evaluations as related to these medications will be presented. CONCLUSION: PGX testing has demonstrated clear benefits in terrestrial medicine and clinical environments for the selection of proper medications, avoiding adverse drug reactions, and maximizing drug efficacy. We propose that similar benefits would be bestowed on the astronaut and commercial spaceflight passenger population by performing preemptive preflight PGX testing to reduce risk of mission failure due to ineffective or toxic medications, improve drug efficacy, and further open the door to countermeasure research. For example, PGX results could allow tailoring of specific medications at optimal doses more precisely to each individual astronaut, particularly in areas of space motion sickness, sleep aids, and analgesics. An additional benefit is that PGX results could provide information for better planning of the components of a space pharmacy for deep space missions to be more effective and efficient in the utilization of limited pharmaceutical resources. Finally, while PGX testing of the astronaut corps is not currently conducted, this approach could provide immediate impact in support of mission success by reducing risks, optimizing astronaut performance, and providing valuable insights into long-term astronaut health. Such advancements in clinical decision making are important next steps in building dynamic individual risk profiles for astronauts, increasing selection of the best treatment choice, and providing tailored countermeasures for individual crewmembers.

Pharmacogenomics↗

Micromobility Integrated Transit and Infrastructure for Efficiency (MITIE)

Nearly omnipresent in many cities of all sizes across the United States, micromobility vehicles-e-scooters, manual bicycles, e-bicycles, and larger seated electric scooters-are notably missing from SMART Mobility research. This project aims to expand the spectrum of modes currently being researched within SMART Mobility by exploring micromobility as an important tool toward meeting energy-efficient mobility goals. It expands on findings from SMART Mobility 1.0 that revealed preferences to reduce transportation-related expenses through use of a network of mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) and other shared mobility options, and builds on findings from a 2019 Vehicle Technology Analysis Program (VTAP) funded micromobility project conducted by our team. We will explore multiple facets of micromobility, including behavior and decision-making, the integration of micromobility within transportation infrastructure, energy estimates, and operations. Guiding research questions include: 1) what are the potential energy savings from low, medium, and high market penetration of micromobility (in passenger, multimodal, and freight domains)? 2) which scenarios for micromobility use and related enablement of increased public transit use should be modeled/considered in the SMART 2.0 Workflow? 3) to what degree can micromobility supplement/complement transit system operations? 4) what are people's preferences towards micromobility? How do preferences vary across various sociodemographic segments? How can this knowledge inform operations? 5) what are optimal strategies to attain high user adoption and shift users toward more energy-efficient mode choices in terms of micromobility operation? How do these strategies affect energy savings, person-miles traveled, lifecycle energy use, and adoption rates? These questions will be addressed through applied research in five project emphasis areas: 1) energy estimates of micromobility for Workflow scenarios: Expand and refine previous micromobility work to augment the Workflow approaches to modeling urban travel; 2) multimodal connection with transit: Utilizing Mobility-Energy Productivity (MEP) tools to evaluate multimodal travel patterns enabled by micromobility, including assessing how to reduce barriers of inequity of access to mobility options and destinations; 3) mode choice, induced demand, and infrastructure: Understanding the mode shift induced through micromobility to inform energy impact analysis; 4) energy optimization of micromobility operations: Identification of micromobility operations parameters and development of operations scenarios to better understand present-day micromobility operations for integration into the Workflow, in partnership with BEAM and POLARIS modeling teams; 5) micro-freight: Characterize the current state of micro-freight activities, including energy effects and geospatial analyses, to inform Workflow.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Self-attitude awareness training: An aid to effective performance in microgravity and virtual environments

This paper describes ongoing development of training procedures to enhance self-attitude awareness in astronaut trainees. The procedures are based on observations regarding self-attitude (perceived self-orientation and self-motion) reported by astronauts. Self-attitude awareness training is implemented on a personal computer system and consists of lesson stacks programmed using Hypertalk with Macromind Director movie imports. Training evaluation will be accomplished by an active search task using the virtual Spacelab environment produced by the Device for Orientation and Motion Environments Preflight Adaptation Trainer (DOME-PAT) as well as by assessment of astronauts' performance and sense of well-being during orbital flight. The general purpose of self-attitude awareness training is to use as efficiently as possible the limited DOME-PAT training time available to astronauts prior to a space mission. We suggest that similar training procedures may enhance the performance of virtual environment operators.

Parker, Donald E.↗

The Ozone Water-Land Environmental Transition Study: An Innovative Strategy for Understanding Chesapeake Bay Pollution Events

Coastal regions have historically represented a significant challenge for air quality investigations because of water-land boundary transition characteristics and a paucity of measurements available over water. Prior studies have identified the formation of high levels of ozone over water bodies, such as the Chesapeake Bay, that can potentially recirculate back over land to significantly impact populated areas. Earth-observing satellites and forecast models face challenges in capturing the coastal transition zone where small-scale meteorological dynamics are complex and large changes in pollutants can occur on very short spatial and temporal scales. An observation strategy is presented to synchronously measure pollutants “over land” and “over water” to provide a more complete picture of chemical gradients across coastal boundaries for both the needs of state and local environmental management and new remote sensing platforms. Intensive vertical profile information from ozone lidar systems and ozonesondes, obtained at two main sites, one over land and the other over water, are complemented by remote sensing and in situ observations of air quality from ground-based, airborne (both personned and unpersonned), and shipborne platforms. These observations, coupled with reliable chemical transport simulations, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), are expected to lead to a more fully characterized and complete land–water interaction observing system that can be used to assess future geostationary air quality instruments, such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO), and current low-Earth-orbiting satellites, such as the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5-P) with its Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI).

Forecast Models↗

Commercial EV Charging Infrastructure: Modeling Concepts & Techniques

This presentation offers an overview of key concepts and techniques for modeling global commercial EV charging infrastructure. We begin by comparing the unique needs of commercial vehicles with those of personal vehicles. Next, we delve into network design topics, including phased deployment of public infrastructure, port sharing across and within fleets, power requirements for en-route charging, and strategies for estimating depot charging availability. Finally, we outline the primary steps NREL follows in conducting an EV charging infrastructure needs assessment.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSI↗

Viability of Small Dimension Crew Quarters for Surface Habitation

During early planning for the Artemis program’s sustained phase of lunar activity, NASA planners have been held to work towards a NASA reference lunar lander concept. With this activity taking place prior to the awarding of a lander contract, NASA planners cannot assume which of several potential landers will be available. This has limited habitation team engineers to a 12-metric ton mass limit for the reference concept of the lunar Surface Habitat. Consequently, minimal approaches have been applied to many habitat systems and it is important to determine acceptable volume for crew quarters. A number of both NASA and non-NASA surface habitat concepts have proposed relatively small crew quarters due to this constraint. Consequently, there is a need to collect objective test data to confirm or refute the validity of small crew quarters. NASA-STD-3001 is looked to for guidance in its many standards but offers little to no help. While prior versions called for private habitation, the current version – Revision B – calls for “individual privacy” to “accommodate social retreat.” Proposed Revision C modifications change the language slightly to “accommodate sleep and social retreat.” This is not enough guidance to determine the size of a crew quarters or even its capabilities. Unfortunately, only a small number of US spacecraft have included crew quarters, primarily the International Space Station and the Skylab Space Station. The space shuttle orbiter sometimes flew a set of private bunks that some might consider a crew quarters. All of these are dramatically smaller than US standards for minimum jail cells. The first opportunity for NASA to test a small crew quarters in a surface habitat application has been created through the Exploration Atmospheres test series, which is evaluating human performance under reduced cabin pressures. The test is converting the 20-Foot Vacuum Chamber at Johnson Space Center into a habitat, with the lower level outfitted as an EVA test area and the upper two levels for human habitation. The test will place eight people (six test subjects and two technicians) inside the chamber for eleven days. All eight will sleep in private quarters during the test. Volume limitations in the chamber forced extremely small crew quarters, measuring approximately 2 meters in length, 0.85 meters in height, and 0.9 meters in width. The test cabin pressure of 8.2 psi and elevated oxygen also introduces significant material limitations, limiting outfitting options. Nonetheless, the crew quarters design requirements were to accommodate visual separation, auditory separation, olfactory separation, tactile separation, air flow control, lighting control, single person personal computing, physical work surface access, sleep accommodations, non-sleep rest/relaxation, meditation, stretching, two-person meetings, snacking, changing clothes, viewing appearance, video communication, and audio communication. This paper will detail the acceptability of the crew quarters as measured in the October 2021 Exploration Atmosphere test. Based on this data, the viability of the type of crew quarters used in the 20 Foot Chamber will be assessed. Design recommendations for a 30-60-day Surface Habitat crew quarters will be provided, along with recommendations for future testing.

Crew Quarters↗

Assessments of astronaut effectiveness

This study examined the reliability and convergent validity of three methods of peer and supervisory ratings of the effectiveness of individual NASA astronauts and their relationships with flight assignments. These two techniques were found to be reliable and relatively convergent. Seniority and a peer-rated Performance and Competence factor proved to be most closely associated with flight assignments, while supervisor ratings and a peer-rated Group Living and Personality factor were found to be unrelated. Results have implications for the selection and training of astronauts.

Rose, Robert M.↗

Cox Proportional Hazards Models for Modeling the Time to Onset of Decompression Sickness in Hypobaric Environments

In this paper we fit Cox proportional hazards models to a subset of data from the Hypobaric Decompression Sickness Databank. The data bank contains records on the time to decompression sickness (DCS) and venous gas emboli (VGE) for over 130,000 person-exposures to high altitude in chamber tests. The subset we use contains 1,321 records, with 87% censoring, and has the most recent experimental tests on DCS made available from Johnson Space Center. We build on previous analyses of this data set by considering more expanded models and more detailed model assessments specific to the Cox model. Our model - which is stratified on the quartiles of the final ambient pressure at altitude - includes the final ambient pressure at altitude as a nonlinear continuous predictor, the computed tissue partial pressure of nitrogen at altitude, and whether exercise was done at altitude. We conduct various assessments of our model, many of which are recently developed in the statistical literature, and conclude where the model needs improvement. We consider the addition of frailties to the stratified Cox model, but found that no significant gain was attained above a model that does not include frailties. Finally, we validate some of the models that we fit.

Thompson, Laura A.↗

Empirical Tests of the Predicted Footprint for Uncontrolled Satellite Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, material, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. The statistical tools use this information to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of the analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. Because this information is used in making policy and engineering decisions, it is important that these assumptions be tested using empirical data. This study uses the latest database of known uncontrolled reentry locations measured by the United States Department of Defense. The predicted ground footprint distributions of these objects are based on the theory that their orbits behave basically like simple Kepler orbits. However, there are a number of factors in the final stages of reentry - including the effects of gravitational harmonics, the effects of the Earth s equatorial bulge on the atmosphere, and the rotation of the Earth and atmosphere - that could cause them to diverge from simple Kepler orbit behavior and possibly change the probability of reentering over a given location. In this paper, the measured latitude and longitude distributions of these objects are directly compared with the predicted distributions, providing a fundamental empirical test of the model assumptions.

Matney, Mark↗

Statistical Issues for Uncontrolled Reentry Hazards Empirical Tests of the Predicted Footprint for Uncontrolled Satellite Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering objects to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, material, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. The statistical tools use this information to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of the analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. Because this information is used in making policy and engineering decisions, it is important that these assumptions be tested using empirical data. This study uses the latest database of known uncontrolled reentry locations measured by the United States Department of Defense. The predicted ground footprint distributions of these objects are based on the theory that their orbits behave basically like simple Kepler orbits. However, there are a number of factors in the final stages of reentry - including the effects of gravitational harmonics, the effects of the Earth s equatorial bulge on the atmosphere, and the rotation of the Earth and atmosphere - that could cause them to diverge from simple Kepler orbit behavior and possibly change the probability of reentering over a given location. In this paper, the measured latitude and longitude distributions of these objects are directly compared with the predicted distributions, providing a fundamental empirical test of the model assumptions.

Matney, Mark↗