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At least 271 records · Page 15
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DOE OSTI2025

Pan-Pacific low-frequency modes of sea level and climate variability

Tide gauges provide a long observational record that can inform the nature of satellite-era basin-scale sea level trends. However, common signals must be extracted from geographically sparse records. Here, by applying low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to tide gauge records and surface climate reconstructions, we isolate three coherent modes of Pacific Ocean variability that we ascribe to: a secular, greenhouse gas–driven climate change (LFC1); a nonlinear mode of variability with a reversal around 1980, potentially linked to aerosols (LFC2); and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (LFC3). Although sea level trend patterns reflect the superimposed contribution of all modes, satellite-era trends are dominated by an increasing phase of LFC2: They are thus potentially unrepresentative of both longer-term historical patterns and those expected in the future.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Growing Pacific Linkage with Western North Atlantic Explosive Cyclogenesis

Abstract Explosive cyclones (ECs), defined as extratropical cyclones that experience normalized pressure drops of at least 24 hPa in 24 h, are impactful weather events in the North Atlantic sector, but year-to-year changes in the frequency and impacts of these storms are sizeable. To analyze the sources of this interannual variability, we track cases of ECs and dissect them into two spatial groups: those that formed near the east coast of North America (coastal) and those in the north central Atlantic (high latitude). The frequency of high-latitude ECs is strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, a well-known feature, whereas coastal EC frequency is statistically linked with an atmospheric wave train emanating from the North Pacific in the last 30 years. This wave train pattern of alternating high and low pressure is associated with heightened upper-level divergence and Eady growth rates along the east coast of North America, likely resulting in a stronger correspondence between the atmospheric wave train and coastal EC frequency. Using coupled model experiments, we show that the tropical and North Pacific oceans are an important factor for this atmospheric wave train and the subsequent enhancement of seasonal baroclinicity in the North Atlantic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Pacific Northwest Heat Wave of 25–30 June 2021: Synoptic/Mesoscale Conditions and Climate Perspective

Abstract An unprecedented heat wave occurred over the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada on 25–30 June 2021, resulting in all-time temperature records that greatly exceeded previous record maximum temperatures. The impacts were substantial, including several hundred deaths, thousands of hospitalizations, a major wildfire in Lytton, British Columbia, Canada, and severe damage to regional vegetation. Several factors came together to produce this extreme event: a record-breaking midtropospheric ridge over British Columbia in the optimal location, record-breaking midtropospheric temperatures, strong subsidence in the lower atmosphere, low-level easterly flow that produced downslope warming on regional terrain and the removal of cooler marine air, an approaching low-level trough that enhanced downslope flow, the occurrence at a time of maximum insolation, and drier-than-normal soil moisture. It is shown that all-time-record temperatures have not become more frequent and that annual high temperatures only increased at the rate of baseline global warming. Although anthropogenic warming may have contributed as much as 1°C to the event, there is little evidence of further amplification from increasing greenhouse gases. Weather forecasts were excellent for this event, with highly accurate predictions of the extreme temperatures. Significance Statement This paper describes the atmospheric evolution that produced an extreme heat wave over the Pacific Northwest during June 2021 and puts this event into historical perspective.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

The microbiome of a Pacific moon jellyfish Aurelia coerulea

The impact of microbiome in animal physiology is well appreciated, but characterization of animal-microbe symbiosis in marine environments remains a growing need. This study characterizes the microbial communities associated with the moon jellyfish Aurelia coerulea, first isolated from the East Pacific Ocean and has since been utilized as an experimental system. We find that the microbiome of this Pacific Aurelia culture is dominated by two taxa, a Mollicutes and Rickettsiales. The microbiome is stable across life stages, although composition varies. Mining the host sequencing data, we assembled the bacterial metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs). The bacterial MAGs are highly reduced, and predict a high metabolic dependence on the host. Analysis using multiple metrics suggest that both bacteria are likely new species. We therefore propose the names Ca. Mariplasma lunae (Mollicutes) and Ca. Marinirickettsia aquamalans (Rickettsiales). Finally, comparison with studies of Aurelia from other geographical populations suggests the association with Ca. Mariplasma lunae occurs in Aurelia from multiple geographical locations. The low-diversity microbiome of Aurelia provides a relatively simple system to study host-microbe interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dataset for 'Stream Temperature Predictions for River Basin Management in the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic Regions Using Machine Learning', Water 2022

This data package presents forcing data, model code, and model output for classical machine learning models that predict monthly stream water temperature as presented in the manuscript ‘Stream Temperature Predictions for River Basin Management in the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic Regions Using Machine Learning’, Water (Weierbach et al., 2022). Specifically, for input forcing datasets we include two files each generated using the BASIN-3D data integration tool (Varadharajan et al., 2022) for stations in the Pacific Northwest and Mid Atlantic Hydrologic regions. Model code (written in python with the use of jupyter notebooks) includes codes for data preprocessing, training Multiple Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, and Extreme Gradient Boosted Tree models, and additional notebooks for analysis of model output. We include specific model output files which represent modeling configurations presented in the manuscript also presented in an hdf5 format. Together, these data make up the workflow for predictions across three scenarios (single station, regional, and predictions in unmonitored basins) presented in the manuscript and allow for reproducibility of modeling procedures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Manuscript Workflows from and Processed Organic Matter Composition of Experimentally Burned Open Air and Muffle Furnace Vegetation Chars across Differing Burn Severity and Feedstock Types from Pacific Northwest, USA (v3)

This dataset includes processed organic matter chemistry data from an experimental study designed to compare how the chemical composition of organic matter changes across different burn conditions and vegetation materials representative of major land cover types of the Pacific Northwest, USA. Chars were created in a closed muffle furnace or on an open burn table from four different feedstock species representing vegetation commonly impacted by fire regimes across the Pacific Northwest, USA. Source data and associated metadata (including methods and geospatial information) can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1894135 (Grieger et al. 2022). This dataset provides processing scripts and processed data for both solid and dissolved phase organic matter characterization data from experimentally generated chars. These processed data can be used to compare how different burn conditions may influence resultant organic matter chemistry and help further our understanding of potential biogeochemical impacts on river corridors post-fire. The processed data were subsequently analyzed; and the results and ecological implications of the findings were published in peer-reviewed manuscripts. The scripts and workflows used to develop the manuscripts are also included in this data package.This data package was originally published June 2024. It was updated September 2024 (new and modified files) and in January 2025 (modified files). See the change history section in the readme for more details.This dataset is comprised of one data package readme, one data dictionary (dd), one file level metadata (flmd), and folders containing (A) processed data; (B) general processing scripts; and (C) additional folders with specific manuscript analysis scripts and processed data. Step-by-step instructions to assist the user in recreating the workflow used to generate the results in the manuscripts is also provided. The processed data folder includes (1) a folder of processed Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC) and spectra indices outputs from excitation emissions matrix (EEM) fluorescence and absorbance data; (2) a folder of processed solid state carbon-13 (13-C NMR) integrals; (3) folder of high resolution characterization of organic matter via 21 Tesla Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) generated through the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL; https://www.pnnl.gov/environmental-molecular-sciences-laboratory) processed data outputs from Formultitude (https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/Formultitude), blank corrections and data aggregation, and calculated molecular indices. All files are .pdf, .csv, .html, .Rmd, .R, or .RData.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

U.S. and Allied Cyber Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific (Workshop Summary)

On March 30, 31, and April 1, 2021, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled "U.S. and allied Cyber Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific". This session brought together participants drawn across the policy, military, and private sector in the United States and among allied countries in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. The workshop evaluated threat perceptions, assessed cyber power in a regional context, and explored opportunities for building capacity and trust with allies, partners, and the private sector. The region's cyber threat landscape is marked by increasing malicious activity, with threats persistent and ever-growing. Grounded by this strategic reality, the workshop advocated for 1) a concerted push into the arena of norm setting from the bottom up, 2) an agreed metric by which to assess progress, and 3) the creation of future lines of collaborative effort for the United States and its allies to ensure an open, interoperable, and secure internet.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2021

Territorial Economic Impact Index: Measuring the ongoing effects of long-term disruptions to Pacific Island Territories

The Territorial Economic Impact Index (TEII) estimates the change in overall territory-level economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic relative to January 2020. It shows which Pacific Island Territories may be more susceptible to large reductions in economic activity compared to normal conditions by looking at which industries make up each territory’s economy and then tracking monthly changes in industry employment at the U.S. national level. Economic activity in the TEII is measured by the total value added of all industries within the territory. Territories with economic activities dominated by industries experiencing rising unemployment can expect larger direct impacts to their local economies, particularly if the industries account for a large portion of the economic output of that county. Results are available for all three Pacific Island Territories: American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Annual Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2022 (Final Report)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), one of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science’s 10 national laboratories, provides innovative science and technology development in the areas of energy and the environment, fundamental and computational science, and national security. There are three DOE offices within the Richland area. Two are responsible for the Hanford Site, whereas the Pacific Northwest Site Office (PNSO) oversees PNNL. PNNL prepares this Annual Site Environmental Report to meet the requirements of DOE Order 231.1B, Environmental, Safety and Health Reporting, and DOE Order 458.1, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment, assuring that the public is informed of any PNNL-Richland Campus or PNNL-Sequim Campus event that could adversely affect the health and safety of the public, site staff, or the environment. The report provides a synopsis of ongoing environmental management performance and compliance activities for operations that occur on the PNNL-Richland Campus in Richland, Washington, and at the PNNL-Sequim Campus near Sequim, Washington. It describes the location of and background for each facility; addresses compliance with applicable DOE, federal, state, and local regulations, and site-specific permits; documents environmental monitoring efforts and their status; presents potential radiation doses to staff and the public in the surrounding areas; and describes DOE-required data quality assurance methods used for data verification. The ASER summarizes site compliance with federal, state, and local environmental laws, regulations, policies, directives, permits, and Orders, and provides environmental management performance benchmarks and their status to the public, regulatory agencies, community officials, Native American tribes, and public interest groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Causes of and Solutions to Wind Speed Bias in NREL's 2020 Offshore Wind Resource Assessment for the California Pacific Outer Continental Shelf

This report provides the results of a detailed analysis into the causes of high wind speed bias in the 20-year wind resource data set for offshore California the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) released in 2020, herein called CA20. The data set was developed using the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Notably, no floating lidars were available at the time in offshore California to validate offshore hub-height wind speeds. In late 2020, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) deployed two floating lidars in the California outer continental shelf (OCS), near the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) call areas of Humboldt and Morro Bay. Using these observations through 2021, NREL found considerable bias in modeled hub-height winds at both locations: up to +2 m/s at Humboldt over a 6-month period, and up to +1 m/s at Morro Bay over a one-year period. Upon the discovery of this bias, the Department of Energy (DOE) and BOEM funded NREL and PNNL to investigate the causes of, impacts of, and solutions to the bias in the CA20 data set. This report summarizes the findings of this research. We first investigated whether different WRF model setups could lead to reduced bias. We found that the choice of planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme - which controls the vertical turbulent mixing of momentum, heat, and moisture in the lowermost part of the atmosphere - greatly affected hub-height wind speeds in the region. Specifically, switching from the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) scheme used in CA20 (and widely used across a range of operational and research weather models) to the less common Yonsei University (YSU) scheme nearly eliminated the bias at both the Humboldt and Morro Bay lidar locations. The large discrepancy between the MYNN- and YSU-modeled hub-height winds pointed towards the role of atmospheric stability. In general, PBL schemes agree well in conditions of high turbulence and mixing, normally referred to as "unstable" conditions. By contrast, PBL schemes start to diverge in "stable" conditions, where turbulence is low and thermal stratification (i.e., higher temperature air sitting on top of colder air) greatly suppresses vertical mixing. Under such conditions, winds aloft can decouple from surface effects and greatly accelerate, causing high wind speeds at hub-height and frequent low-level jets (LLJs). We determined that these stable conditions are in fact dominant in offshore California. The region is characterized by moderate-to-extreme stable stratification with a LLJ on average around 200 meters above sea-level. To our knowledge, no wind energy area globally has as strongly stable stratification as offshore California. Under these extreme conditions, we determined that the MYNN scheme models higher stability than YSU, resulting in less vertical turbulent mixing than YSU, allowing for the acceleration of hub-height winds, more intense LLJs, and higher-amplitude inertial oscillations. Using surface observations, we found that MYNN overestimates near-surface stability, whereas YSU tends to model stability better. We then considered several short-term case studies to assess additional meteorological drivers of the bias at Humboldt. We found that during synoptic scale northerly flows driven by the North Pacific High and inland thermal low, a coastal warm bias in the MYNN case studies contributes to the modeled wind speed bias by altering the boundary layer thermodynamics via a thermal wind mechanism. Given the strong performance of the YSU-based runs in offshore California, NREL has produced and published an updated version of the CA20 data set with YSU as the PBL scheme. This updated data set is now part of NREL's 2023 National Offshore Wind (NOW-23) data set, which covers all the U.S. offshore waters. The development and final validation of the NOW-23 data set in offshore California is documented in this report.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Annual Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2023

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), one of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science’s 10 national laboratories, provides innovative science and technology development in the areas of energy and the environment, fundamental and computational science, and national security. There are three DOE offices within the Richland area. Two are responsible for the Hanford Site, whereas the Pacific Northwest Site Office oversees PNNL. PNNL prepares an Annual Site Environmental Report to meet the requirements of DOE Order 231.1B, Environment, Safety and Health Reporting, and DOE Order 458.1, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment, thus assuring that the public is informed of any PNNL-Richland campus or PNNL-Sequim campus event that could adversely affect the health and safety of the public, site staff, or the environment. The report provides a synopsis of ongoing environmental management performance and compliance activities for operations that occur at the PNNL-Richland campus in Richland, Washington, and at the PNNL-Sequim campus near Sequim, Washington. It describes the location of and background for each facility; addresses compliance with applicable DOE, federal, state, and local regulations, and site-specific permits; documents environmental monitoring efforts and their status; presents potential radiation doses to staff and the public in the surrounding areas; and describes DOE-required data quality assurance methods used for data verification. The ASER report describes Compliance with Federal, State, and Local Laws and Regulations in 2023, Environmental Sustainability, Environmental monitoring and dose assessment, Natural and Cultural Resource Management, and Quality Assurance activities that took place during Calendar Year 2023.

40 CFR 61 Subpart H↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Facility Radionuclide Emission Points and Sampling Systems

Battelle–Pacific Northwest Division operates numerous research and development laboratories in Washington State. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) contracts to Battelle at Richland facilities on both the DOE Hanford Site and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)-Richland campus. These facilities have the potential for radionuclide air emissions. The PNNL contract with DOE also includes operations at the PNNL-Sequim campus in Sequim, where there is also the potential for radionuclide air emissions. This document is a periodic update that describes current PNNL facility emission units and sampling systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surface heat flux and its association with the MJO in the tropical western Pacific using ARM observations

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major atmospheric phenomenon in the tropics that moves eastward every 20 to 100 days. It brings heavy rain and strong winds, influencing extreme weather events far beyond the tropics – including flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes and heavy snow in the United States. Therefore, an improved understanding of the MJO is critical for enhancing weather forecasts and supporting better decision-making for communities, emergency managers, and the private sector. Past studies, based on short-term observations or long-term model data, have emphasized the dominant role of atmospheric humidity in driving the MJO. Our research, using long-term observations (2000-2014) from three U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in the tropical western Pacific (Manus, Nauru, and Darwin) confirms those past findings. However, we also show that atmospheric temperature, especially in the mid and upper troposphere, also plays a key role in the MJO’s evolution from its quiet (suppressed) to convective (active) phase. These findings provide valuable insights into how the MJO evolves and may help evaluate and improve weather and climate models. Our study also examined how the exchange of heat between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, called surface heat flux, interacts with the MJO. This flux includes components such as latent heat (related to evaporation), sensible heat (related to temperature difference between surface and atmosphere), and radiation. We found that modulation in MJO convection is well connected to surface heat flux over the tropical western Pacific. One surface heat flux component often overlooked is the sensible heat flux due to precipitation (Q P ). Since falling raindrops are typically cooler than the land or ocean surface, they can cool the surface and affect local weather. To test the impact of Q P on convection during MJO, we incorporated it into a weather model, and ran simulations for two periods: April 2009 (when the MJO was active) and June 2006 (when it was not). Including Q P reduced errors in simulating the daily peak of rainfall—by 83% during the strong MJO and 23% during the inactive phase. It also improved the timing of peak daily rainfall and reduced the overall precipitation error by about 10%. These improvements were especially noticeable during periods of heavy rainfall. Our results suggest that even small heat exchanges from rainfall can play a significant role in shaping local weather. Accounting for these effects, particularly in regions like the tropical islands, can lead to more accurate simulations of the MJO-associated precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements and Analyses to Enable Science for the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE)

Coastal cities provide the opportunity to characterize the substantial effects of manmade particles on marine cloud properties and processes. La Jolla lies to the north of San Diego, California, but it is often about a day directly downwind of the major pollution sources located in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The large dynamic range of aerosol particle concentrations combined with the multi-hour to multi-day persistence of stratocumulus cloud layers makes the site ideal for investigating the seasonal changes in cloud and aerosol properties as well as the quantitative relationships between cloud and aerosol properties. The Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) characterized the extent, radiative properties, aerosol interactions, and precipitation characteristics of stratocumulus clouds in the Eastern Pacific across all four seasons at two coastal sites in La Jolla. This project was designed to enhance and expand the scientific uses of the ARM AMF1 measurements from EPCAPE. The goal was to ensure meaningful observations were collected that would enable science. The project included the following objectives: (1) Reviewing the ARM AMF1 measurements [ARM, 2021a; b] and circulating a summary of the measurements each week, (2) Comparing AMF1 measurements to those provided by collaborators (including filter measurements at the pier), (3) Collecting and analyzing filter samples from Scripps Pier by Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and X-ray Fluorescence (XRF), (4) Assisting in operations of instruments provided by Guest PIs when possible, and (5) Providing an initial compilation of EPCAPE aerosol and cloud seasonal differences. The expected outcomes of these objectives were enhanced proposals and publications using EPCAPE measurements by helping to identify instrument issues, expanded data access and awareness by distributing weekly plots and related summaries, improved source-related attribution of aerosols with elemental tracers, additional observations provided by Guest PIs, and accelerated ACI studies enabled by the compiled seasonal summaries of aerosol and cloud properties. Three examples of the science enabled by this project are findings that (i) aerosol and cloud aqueous production contributes more than half of sulfate particle mass concentration, (ii) upwind sources make chemical composition very similar at nearby sites despite local differences in meteorology, and (iii) most of the large mass concentration of semi-volatile organic components is co-emitted and co-evaporated with nitrate. Together these findings illustrate how ARM extended field campaigns in coastal regions can be used to constrain ACI processes with direct observations. By using the unique ARM suite of cloud radiative products in addition to the measured aerosol properties at a coastal location, we were able to address the more specific question of which aerosol particles cause how much of the effects on clouds. Identifying this signature in coastal areas provides an opportunity to test the representation of aerosol sources by global models in a range of clean and urban-influenced conditions.

Russell, Lynn [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Facility Radionuclide Emission Points and Sampling Systems

Battelle–Pacific Northwest Division operates numerous research and development laboratories in Richland, Washington. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) contracts to Battelle include Richland facilities on the DOE Hanford Site and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) – Richland Campus that have the potential for radionuclide air emissions. The PNNL contract also includes DOE operations at the PNNL-Sequim Campus, in Sequim, Washington, where there is also the potential for radionuclide air emissions. This document is a periodic update that describes current PNNL facility emission units and sampling systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

U.S. Pacific Coast Workshop Report on Preconstruction Research Recommendations (U.S. Offshore Wind Synthesis of Environmental Effects Research (SEER) Project)

In May 2022, the U.S. Offshore Wind Synthesis of Environmental Effects Research (SEER) project team hosted a stakeholder workshop focused on preconstruction (baseline) research needs for potential floating offshore wind (OSW) energy development on the U.S. Pacific Coast, including California, Oregon, and Washington. Prior to the workshop, the SEER team developed a set of initial synthesized research recommendations that were identified based on a review of relevant, publicly available resources and with advisory group input. The workshop covered three marine life breakout groups on subsequent days to discuss research recommendations related to 1) marine mammals and sea turtles, 2) fish and invertebrates, and 3) birds and bats. As part of the workshop, over a hundred participants from the public and private sectors provided feedback on various aspects of the initial research recommendations, including associated data and knowledge gaps, benefits/limitations of available methods and technologies, and technological advancements or infrastructure needed to address the recommendation. Approximately 1,000 total comments were received on the workshop MURAL boards and were synthesized in this report. Based on workshop feedback, SEER developed a final database of over 500 specific research recommendations based on more than 40 resources. In Fall 2022, the full database and a tool with updated synthesized research recommendations were disseminated on Tethys (https://tethys.pnnl.gov) to assist with informing future funding opportunities and research programming. There is a continued need to improve awareness of the potential environmental effects, monitoring technologies, and management strategies for floating OSW energy development on the U.S. Pacific Coast. Coordination of these activities will require the sustained involvement of multiple stakeholders from across sectors. Beyond the baseline considerations discussed in this workshop, future state-of-the-science activities should be planned to consider research needs across wind energy life cycle phases for all relevant wildlife taxa and associated habitat and ecosystem processes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Information Entropy as Quantifier of Potential Predictability in the Tropical Indo-Pacific Basin

Global warming is posed to modify the modes of variability that control much of the climate predictability at seasonal to interannual scales. The quantification of changes in climate predictability over any given amount of time, however, remains challenging. Here we build upon recent advances in non-linear dynamical systems theory and introduce the climate community to an information entropy quantifier based on recurrence. The entropy, or complexity of a system is associated with microstates that recur over time in the time-series that define the system, and therefore to its predictability potential. A computationally fast method to evaluate the entropy is applied to the investigation of the information entropy of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, focusing on boreal fall. In this season the predictability of the basins is controlled by two regularly varying non-linear oscillations, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. We compute and compare the entropy in simulations from the CMIP5 catalog from the historical period and RCP8.5 scenario, and in reanalysis datasets. Discrepancies are found between the models and the reanalysis, and no robust changes in predictability can be identified in future projections. The Indian Ocean and the equatorial Pacific emerge as troublesome areas where the modeled entropy differs the most from that of the reanalysis in many models. A brief investigation of the source of the bias points to a poor representation of the ocean mean state and basins' connectivity at the Indonesian Throughflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric CO 2 estimates for the Miocene to Pleistocene based on foraminiferal $δ^{11}$B at Ocean Drilling Program Sites 806 and 807 in the Western Equatorial Pacific

Constraints on the evolution of atmospheric CO 2 levels throughout Earth's history are foundational to our understanding of past variations in climate. Despite considerable effort, records vary in their temporal and spatial coverage and estimates of past CO 2 levels do not always converge, and therefore new records and proxies are valuable. Here we reconstruct atmospheric CO 2 values across major climate transitions over the past 16 million years using the boron isotopic composition (δ 11 B) of planktic foraminifera from 89 samples obtained from two sites in the West Pacific Warm Pool, Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 806 and 807, measured using high-precision multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. We compare our results to published data from ODP Site 872, also in the Western Equatorial Pacific, that goes back to 22 million years ago. These sites are in a region that today is near equilibrium with the atmosphere and are thought to have been in equilibrium with the atmosphere for the interval studied. We show that δ 11 B data from this region are consistent with other boron-based studies. The data show evidence for elevated pCO 2 during the Middle Miocene and Early to Middle Pliocene, and reductions in pCO 2 of ~200 ppm during the Middle Miocene Climate Transition, ~250 ppm during Pliocene Glacial Intensification and ~50 ppm during the Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition. During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition there is a minimum pCO 2 at marine isotopic stage (MIS) 30. Our results are consistent with a coupling between pCO 2 , temperature and ice sheet expansion from the Miocene to the late Quaternary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗