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Phase evolution of U-Zr system in a thermal cycling neutron diffraction experiment: as-cast U-35Zr and U-50Zr

Here, phase evolution of as-cast U-35 wt% Zr and U-50 wt% Zr alloys during thermal cycling (303–1073 K) was investigated using in-situ neutron diffraction. Analysis was performed using Rietveld crystal and microstructure refinements from time-of-flight neutron diffraction data, with a focus on evolution of lattice parameter, atom ordering, unit cell volume, and weight fractions during the thermal cycling. Disordered δ-UZr 2 and residual γ-(U,Zr) phase are retained in the field of δ of the U-Zr equilibrium phase diagram for the U-50Zr sample, and in the field between δ and α-U for the U-35Zr sample. The α phase that is present in the reported phase diagrams of U-Zr was not observed in the diffraction patterns. The evolutions of lattice parameter and unit cell volume of δ and γ are affected by both thermal expansion and chemistry.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Robust Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

In order to reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are moving from corrective and periodic maintenance to predictive maintenance strategies. Such transition requires changes on the data that needs to be retrieved and on the type of decision processes to be employed. Advanced monitoring and data analysis technologies are essential to support predictive strategies. They can in fact provide precise information about health of a component, track its degradation trends, and provide information of its expected failure time. With such information, maintenance operations for a component can be performed right before its expected failure time. This dynamic context of O&M operations requires new methods to analyze data, propagate component health information from the component to the system level, and optimize plant resources. In this respect, the risk informed asset management (RIAM) project has been tasked to develop and test this new class of methods into a risk analytics toolset. This toolset consists of data analytics tools coupled with reliability methods designed to manage plant assets and performances in a predictive maintenance context. This report shows the latest improvements on such development and the initial testing of our methods on the three main research areas that the RIAM project is focusing on. These areas are the following: equipment reliability data analytics, system reliability modeling, and plant resources optimization methods. We show how the methods developed in these areas can support predictive maintenance strategies by: 1) analyzing equipment reliability data (either in numeric and textual form), 2) assessing component and system health through an innovative margin-based reliability approach, and 3) identifying the most critical components and set optimal maintenance schedule based on plant economic and operational constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

EVs@Scale: NextGen Profiles EVSE Characterization 2025

As part of the U.S. DOE EVs@Scale consortium, the Next-Generation Profiles (NextGen Profiles [NGP]) project presents analysis and results from the characterization of high-power conductive and wireless charging infrastructure. High Power Charging equipment is capable of recharging electric vehicle traction batteries at power levels of 200KW and above. Electric Vehicle Service Equipment (EVSE) characterization involves testing over a wide range of DC charging currents and voltages during nominal and off-nominal conditions. This testing allows for a better understanding of the impact that high-power charging will have on the electric grid. A common set of standard test plans, procedures, and data requirements were applied to the characterization in this document with minor updates and improvements. This report covers all conductive characterization activities performed between October 2024 and September 2025 on the Delta Electronics 350KW Electric Vehicle Charging System, consisting of power cabinet model EIDN-U350KTA01 and dispenser model EIDD-U350SSUUAEG-350.Key Findings include: Output regulation, Efficiency and power factor, Load management, Grid Resilience, Smart Charge Management (SCM) performance, Thermal control system performance, Multi-port simultaneous charging performance, and Selected performance comparisons with other EVSEs characterized in the NextGen Profiles project. Hot and cold temperature testing was not conducted on the Delta 350KW due to laboratory limitations. Future research could include continued testing the Delta hardware under off-nominal temperature conditions including multi-port/multi-session simultaneous charge testing, in addition to collecting data on other high-power conductive chargers to augment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Groundwater Monitoring Report, U.S. Department of Energy Y-12 National Security Complex, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

This report contains the groundwater and surface water monitoring data obtained during calendar year (CY) 2019 at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) on the DOE Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The monitoring data were obtained from wells, springs, and surface water sampling locations in three hydrogeologic regimes at Y-12. The Bear Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (Bear Creek Regime) encompasses a section of Bear Creek Valley (BCV) between the west end of Y-12 and the west end of the Bear Creek Watershed (directions are in reference to the Y-12 grid system, shown as Plant North. The Upper East Fork Poplar Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (East Fork Regime) encompasses the Y-12 industrial facilities and support structures in BCV. The Chestnut Ridge Hydrogeologic Regime (Chestnut Ridge Regime) encompasses a section of Chestnut Ridge directly south of Y-12. Background information in Section 2 of this report outlines the hydrogeologic framework for groundwater and surface water quality monitoring at Y-12 and includes an overview of the groundwater contamination in each hydrogeologic regime. Section 3 provides details regarding the groundwater and surface water sampling and analysis activities implemented under the Y-12 GWPP, including sampling locations and frequency, sample collection and handling, field measurements and laboratory analytes, quality assurance (QA)/quality control (QC) sampling, data management, and data quality assessment (DQA). However, the equivalent QA/QC or DQA information for the groundwater and surface water data associated with the monitoring programs implemented by UCOR are not included in this report and instead are deferred to referenced programmatic plans and reports issued by OREM and UCOR. Section 4 of this report presents a summary evaluation of the CY 2019 monitoring data with regard to the respective objectives of surveillance monitoring and exit pathway/perimeter monitoring. The evaluation is based primarily on the analytical results for the following principal groundwater contaminants at Y-12: nitrate, uranium, gross alpha activity, gross beta activity, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Section 5 summarizes the most significant findings with respect to the principal contaminants along with recommendations for any proposed changes to the ongoing groundwater and surface water quality monitoring performed under the Y-12 GWPP. Technical reports and plans cited in the narrative sections of the report are listed in Section 6. Narrative sections of this report reference several appendices. Figures (maps and diagrams) and data tables (excluding data summary tables incorporated in the narrative sections) are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. Appendix C contains construction details for each well sampled during CY 2019 by either the Y-12 GWPP or UCOR, along with schematic diagrams for wells equipped with Westbay™ multiport sampling equipment or Barcad® pump systems. Appendix D supports the background summary discussion in Section 2 and provides more detailed information about the hydrogeologic framework for groundwater and surface water monitoring at Y-12, including the primary sources of groundwater contamination in each hydrogeologic regime. Results for all field measurements and laboratory analyses obtained by the Y-12 GWPP and UCOR are presented in Appendix E, which also includes the sample numbers for the QA/QC samples associated with groundwater and surface water monitoring performed by the Y-12 GWPP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SAM Code Validation on Frictional Pressure Drop through Pebble Beds

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is currently under development at Argonne National Laboratory as a modern system-level modeling and simulation tool for safety analyses of advanced non-light water reactors. This report presents a recent effort to validate the capability of SAM to predict the frictional pressure drop through pebble beds. Selected experimental data were used for code validation, including data from test facilities at Texas A&M University, Missouri University of Science and Technology, and North-West University of South Africa. SAM implements three empirical correlations to predict frictional pressure drop: the classical Ergun correlation; the KTA correlation, which is widely used in high-temperature gas-cooled reactor applications; and the Eisfeld and Schnitzlein correlation, which explicitly considers wall effect. Code validation was performed using all three correlations. For all selected experimental data, the KTA correlation shows the best performance and agrees very well with experimental measurement; the Eisfeld and Schnitzlein correlation, explicitly considering wall effects, shows acceptable accuracy, while there is no evidence that it is better than the KTA correlation; the Ergun correlation, however, over-predicts frictional pressure drop for most selected data points.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Renewable Thermal Energy Systems: Characterization of the Most Important Thermal Energy Applications in Buildings and Industry (Report 1)

This report is the first in a three-report series that evaluates the provision of renewable heat for industry and buildings via current and prospective renewable thermal energy system (RTES) technologies. The RTES project has undertaken initial research focused on technologies that could be suited for industrial process heat applications at different temperature levels, and, where possible, gathered performance and cost data for these technologies. This project does not directly evaluate RTES for distributed residential or commercial applications, nor does it yet include documented cases or modeling of RTES using geothermal, biomass, waste heat, renewable fuels like renewable natural gas, or hydrogen production. The three technical reports are summarized as follows: Renewable Thermal Energy Systems: Characterization of the Most Important Thermal Energy Applications in Buildings and Industry (Report 1), this report: summary of thermal demands of U.S. industry and buildings, and relevant hybrid RTES configurations; Renewable Thermal Energy Systems: Systemic Challenges and Transformational Policies (Report 2): discussion of socio-technical characteristics of RTES, innovation challenges, and supporting policies. Available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/83020.pdf; Renewable Thermal Energy Systems: Modeling Developments and Future Directions (Report 3): Energy yield and performance modeling of RTES, techno-economic analysis via case studies, and proposed development of a user decision support tool. Available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/83021.pdf.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Solar and Storage Techno-Economic Analysis Tutorial for the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC)

This tutorial will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) technology trends and manufacturing costs, project levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and project levelized cost of solar plus storage (LCOSS) for systems across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global PV supply chain and 2021 benchmark input data for NREL's crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. The framework that we follow and will review during this tutorial provides a methodology to prepare bottom-up manufacturing cost models including the items within the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review input data and methods useful for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, &A) expenses. This 2021 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film module manufacturing. We will also review methods for our 2021 system benchmark costs calculations and LCOE technoeconomic analysis of PV systems and solar plus storage systems. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. Techniques for comparing LCOE performance will also be reviewed. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.

cost models↗

High-fidelity multiphysics load following and accidental transient modeling of microreactors using NEAMS tools: Application of NEAMS codes to perform multiphysics modeling analyses of micro-reactor concepts

The feasibility of modeling microreactors using high-fidelity models with the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) tools is investigated in this report. Three overarching questions guided this research: can NEAMS tools readily be applied for high-fidelity multiphysics modeling of different types of transients in microreactor designs; how accurate are the results obtained; and are improvements needed in accuracy or user experience of NEAMS tools, especially considering newly developed capabilities? This work builds upon FY-2022 work, and two microreactor concepts considering heat pipe (HP-MR) and gas-cooled (GC-MR) technologies were further analyzed using high-fidelity multiphysics simulations. The NEAMS tools considered and coupled within the MultiApp environment are Griffin for neutronics, BISON for thermo-mechanics, Sockeye for heat pipe modeling (in HP-MR), SAM for 1D Fluid – 3D solid modeling of coolant channels and system modeling of balance of plant components (in GC-MR), and the SWIFT code for hydrogen redistribution in hydride moderator. The Heat Pipe MicroReactor (HP-MR) concept was further analyzed in FY-2023 to demonstrate the stochastic TRISO failure modeling capability in BISON to check operational limits of the TRISO fuel. A new full-core Gas-Cooled MicroReactor (GC-MR) model was developed based on the initial assembly-model used in Y-2022 and used for steady-state and accidental depressurization transient simulations. Accuracy of the simulations performed was assessed through 1) verification analyses completed on the different physics with code-to-code comparison, and 2) validation of the multiphysics simulations based on modeling of the Kilopower Reactor Using Stirling Technology (KRUSTY) experiment. In FY-2023, the mesh and model of KRUSTY was updated to closely match publicly available data, and the neutronic model was verified and validated against experimental control rod worth measurements. The multiphysics model of KRUSTY was developed and used for steady-state analysis and for modeling reactivity insertion transient. The calculated power increase and stabilization agrees well with experimental data following adjustment in fuel thermal expansion coefficient. As an important component of this project, the ANL team gathered experience with a wide range of NEAMS tools: the MOOSE Mesh System, Griffin, BISON, SWIFT, Sockeye, SAM, Workbench, and the MOOSE MultiApp System, and provided assessment of new capabilities. Noteworthy are the user assessment of the “vapor-only” flow model in Sockeye and development of a multiphysics startup transient in HP-MR unit cell for use as tutorial in Sockeye. The full-core GC-MR model was used for assessment of SAM for balance of plant modeling and for demonstrating the SWIFT code capability for hydrogen redistribution modeling in multiphysics transient analyses. In this process, several bugs/issues were identified and reported to developers. Finally, the assembly GC-MR model developed in FY-2022 coupling Griffin, BISON and SAM through flow blockage and rod ejection transients was published to the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) Virtual Test Bed (VTB). The Heat Pipe MicroReactor (HP-MR) concept high-fidelity multiphysics coupling of Griffin/BISON/Sockeye in load-following and heat pipe failure transients was also published on the VTB. Those submissions are enabling thorough review of these models as well as wide distribution to industry, regulator, and university users. In this analysis, several new research questions were uncovered, and follow-up analyses are recommended to further improve some models, consider additional transients, and continue development of VTB models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Analysis of Electric Heavy-Duty Driving and Infrastructure Requirements

The analysis discussed in this report was performed as part of DOE award DE-EE0009232 to model the effects of charging Heavy Duty Battery Electric Trucks (HDBETs) on the grid. This project combines best in class freight modeling by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with advanced distribution modeling by EPRI using detailed data from Xcel Energy and Salt River Project to analyze the effects of depot charging and utility-grade transmission modeling by Tri-State Transmission and Generation Association Inc. to analyze the effects of en-route charging.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Time Series Dimension Reduction for Surrogate Models of Port Scanning Cyber Emulations

Surrogate model development is a key resource in the scientific modeling community for providing computational expedience when simulating complex systems without loss of great fidelity. The initial step to development of a surrogate model is identification of the primary governing components of the system. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used data science technique that provides inspection of such driving factors, when the objective for modeling is to capture the greatest sources of variance inherent to a dataset. Although an efficient linear dimension reduction tool, PCA makes the fundamental assumption that the data is continuous and normally distributed. Thus, it provides ideal performance when these conditions are met. In the case for which cyber emulations provide realizations of a port scanning scenario, the data to be modeled follows a discrete time series function comprised of monotonically increasing piece-wise constant steps. The sources of variance are related to the timing and magnitude of these steps. Therefore, we consider using XPCA, an extension to PCA for continuous and discrete random variates. This report provides the documentation of the trade-offs between the PCA and XPCA linear dimension reduction algorithms, for the intended purpose to identify key components of greatest variance in our time series data. These components will ultimately provide the basis for future surrogate models of port scanning cyber emulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact of electrode porosity architecture on electrochemical performances of 1 mm-thick LiFePO4 binder-free Li-ion electrodes fabricated by Spark Plasma Sintering

Thick electrodes with high active material loadings have been intensively studied over the last couple of decades in pursuit of achieving high energy density systems. To optimize and enhance the electrochemical performance of such electrodes, one has to control the pore morphology by, for example, varying the pore size and shape, and the level of porosity. In the present work, the fabrication of thick binder-free LiFePO4 (LFP) electrodes with two different pore sizes (12 and 20 mu m) and porosities (21 vol% and 44 vol%) using Spark Plasma Sintering (SPS) and templating approach is reported. The well-controlled porous architecture inside the thick electrodes is realized by fine-tuning experimental parameters. The impact of porosity architecture on electrochemical performance is quantified and correlated with the 3D tortuosity values determined from both micro-computed tomography and electrochemical impedance-based experimental methods. Based on the micro-computed tomography data analysis, estimated tortuosity values along X, Y, and Z axes reveal an anisotropic effect perpendicularly to the SPS compression axis (Z-direction). This is particularly profoundly observed in the samples with larger pores (20 mu m). The correlation between morphological properties and the rate capability performance is established indicating that the capacity loss happens mainly due to the Li-ion diffusion limitations.

Cathode material↗

Topical Report – Findings on Subtask 2.7 – Wet ESP and Aerosol Testing at Coal Creek Station

Growing concerns over the impact of CO 2 emissions from combustion sources on global climate change have prompted numerous research and development projects aimed at developing cost-effective technologies for CO 2 capture. One family of technologies being demonstrated at pilot and full scale globally is postcombustion carbon capture (PCCC) systems that employ amine-based solvents. The captured CO 2 can be compressed and permanently stored underground or used for enhanced oil recovery. The proximity of North Dakota’s lignite-fired fleet of power plants to potential CO 2 storage options creates a unique atmosphere for PCCC within the state. However, the unique components present in lignite flue gas present a challenge for large-scale PCCC at North Dakota power plants by contributing to aerosol formation. Aerosols can negatively impact the long-term performance of amine-based solvents for CO 2 capture. Amine-based solvents are volatile, and flue gas particulate provides nucleation sites where amine vapors can condense as aerosols. Because aerosols cannot be easily captured at the column outlet using conventional technologies, the amine-laden aerosols escape the system and lead to accelerated solvent losses. Moreover, particulate components can chemically react with amines to form degradation products that can permanently deactivate the amine, cause fouling, and lead to hazardous emissions. Many of the elements that have been shown to catalyze solvent degradation are present in lignite coals and can exacerbate solvent replacement economics. Understanding this issue is critical to the implementation of solvent-based CO 2 capture systems as applied to lignite-fired generation systems. The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) designed and carried out this project to fully characterize aerosol behavior with various control technologies installed to better optimize aerosol mitigation technology for CO 2 capture. To meet the goal of this project, the following objectives were identified: Determine the effectiveness of a wet electrostatic precipitator (WESP) on mitigating formation of problematic aerosols at Great River Energy’s Coal Creek Station, upstream of the PCCC system. Determine the effectiveness of the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) proprietary amine emission reduction unit (AERU) as a postcapture solvent recovery system for reducing aerosol emissions and extending solvent life downstream of the PCCC system. Determine the impact of aerosols on the efficiency and degradation products of both commercial and advanced solvents within the PCCC system. Work was conducted at Coal Creek Station Unit 1 using a slipstream of flue gas from the outlet of the plant’s flue gas desulfurization (FGD) unit. Flue gas was routed through a pilot-scale FGD unit to remove SO 2 to very low levels (~1 ppm) and then through a direct contact cooler (DCC) to further cool the gas and to remove moisture. The gas exiting the DCC was then optionally routed through a WESP before passing to the CO 2 absorber columns. The MHI solvent was used to scrub CO 2 from the slipstream through a set of two absorber columns. The rich solvent was regenerated in a stripper column by heating to drive off captured CO 2 . Flue gas exiting the absorber column was routed to MHI’s proprietary AERU to recover entrained solvent. The system operated using a catch-and-release method where the CO 2 was separated to provide data on the process, but the captured CO 2 was released back into the host site stack. Particulate was measured, collected, and analyzed from multiple locations throughout the pilot-scale system. Unlike the performance observed in prior work, the inlet FGD and DCC did not remove significant particulate matter from the flue gas. This appears to be due to a difference in the nature of the particulate. The DCC seemed to increase particulate size and count, most likely owing to water condensing onto the surfaces of fly ash particles. When the WESP was operated, it achieved >95% particulate capture. Very little particulate matter or indications of solvent were detected at the AERU outlet. When operating with advanced KS 21 solvent, the particulate material at the AERU outlet was even further decreased. Solvent analysis showed that some species derived from flue gas and ash were slowly concentrating in the solvent over the duration of the test. The levels observed were reported to be within expected ranges and were not of concern to MHI. A high-level techno-economic assessment of installing CO 2 capture at Coal Creek Station suggested that, when using a standard monoethanolamine (MEA)-based solution with simple heat integration, the energy penalty to net generation would be 34%. The bulk of this was due to steam losses for regenerating solvent, followed by parasitic electrical demand for CO 2 compression and then by increased parasitic load for pushing flue gas through the absorber column. These demands could be decreased with a more advanced solvent that exhibits lower heat of regeneration and lower pressure drop than does a simple MEA solution. Further energy could be saved with more thorough heat integration to recover useful energy from the steam used for solvent regeneration. Installing a WESP was predicted to increase the cost of electricity by nearly $5/MWh. This would become cost-effective if solvent losses were roughly 10 times the baseline estimate when not using a WESP but could be returned to baseline by installing the WESP. Piping CO 2 for storage in more favorable geology could help with carbon capture and storage economics. Although storing off-site would necessitate construction of a CO 2 transport pipeline, the cost of this pipeline might be more than offset by reducing the number of wells required, the depths of the wells required, and the electrical demand for the CO 2 compressor. Additional factors that favor off-site storage costs include smaller expected CO 2 plume sizes, which translates to less monitoring and fewer landowner agreements. More detailed assessment of the specific geology in the region under and around Coal Creek Station would be needed to accurately assess the costs and benefits of different storage site options. This subtask was cofunded through the Energy & Environmental Research Center–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission.

Strege, Joshua↗

Quick Look Report of Godiva U233 shot March 2022 Data Collection Activities

This report discussing the March 2022 irradiation of U233 on the Godiva critical assembly using burst mode and subsequent analysis of the fission products starting at 65 minutes post irradiation, and ending 12 days later. The Short-Lived Fission Product Yield (SLFPY) project is one of many efforts under the Nuclear Physics Multi-Lab and related Venture Project. The objective of the SLFPY project is to provide improved measurements of fission product yields for select nuclides. The SLFPY project consists of measurement and analysis campaigns. To produce fission data, samples of actinide material are irradiated in a high-flux neutron environment. These samples are quickly placed in front of a detection system where both gamma singles and coincidence spectra are collected as a function of time. Gamma spectroscopy is performed on the irradiated material on site near the irradiation facility, starting as soon as feasible after the irradiation and continuing for 7 days or longer. Following the data collection, time-dependent fission yield analyses are performed using gamma-ray spectroscopy. This document summarizes the measurement campaign performed March 21 - April 4, 2022 where sub-gram quantities of 233 U nitrate (UO 2 (NO 3 ) 2 ) were irradiated in the Godiva reactor. The Godiva burst #2076 conducted under experiment IER 504 had a temperature change of +156 degrees Celsius, lasted 13.32 microseconds, and had a reactivity of $\$$1.089. The targets consisted of uranium oxide solution deposited in a quartz tube and packed with quartz wool. The flame-sealed quartz ampoules were used to contain the uranium samples for the irradiation and count activities. On March 22, 2022, at 10:27:00 a.m. the three uranium ampoules, along with a witness foil pack, were irradiated in the Godiva critical assembly using burst mode operations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evaluation of Physical Security Risk for Potential Implementation of FLEX using Dynamic Simulation Methods

The requirements for United States nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their large operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Physical Security Pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. This pathway will analyze and minimize the conservatisms built into current security postures in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within this pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force (FOF) modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrated them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an overview of lessons learned in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available FOF simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific FOF models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System or Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations, and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance of the use of the framework. Such an assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants. NOTE: The work performed in this report is based on a generic EMRALD model with actual plant data used for the analysis. However, only the generic model and general results of the analysis are in the report. No plant’s sensitive information is discussed in this report. The discussion shows examples of insights that can be obtained from the MASS-DEF methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Cyote-attack Chain Estimator

Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application Overview The Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application is a sophisticated tool designed for the ingestion, classification, sequencing, and enrichment of cybersecurity threat reports. This application leverages advanced machine learning models and extensive historical data to provide comprehensive insights into cyber threats, specifically targeting Industrial Control Systems (ICS). Purpose The primary functions of the ACE Application include: Ingestion of Cybersecurity Threat Reporting: Capable of ingesting text-based threat reports in markdown or text file format. Supports ingestion of structured data from other sources in STIX/JSON format. Classification of Report’s Text-Based Events: Utilizes a DeBERTa classifier, specifically trained on cybersecurity data, to map the events to MITRE ATT&CK for ICS Tactics and Techniques. Classification is performed using multiple Jupyter notebooks and machine learning workflows hosted as FastAPI microservices: regex_data deberta_base_35_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb hft_regex_classifier_mlflow.ipynb param_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb regex_tactic_tech.ipynb Ordering of Tactics, Techniques, and Observable Events: Sequences the identified tactics, techniques, and events to form a coherent attack chain. Enrichment with Historical Attack Chain Details: Enhances the attack chain with details from historical attacks using a Markov model developed from CyOTE Precursor Analysis Report data. The Markov model is available as a FastAPI endpoint for seamless integration. Enrichment with Adversary Emulation Capabilities Data: Integrates adversary emulation capabilities data using MITRE Caldera for OT adversary abilities UUIDs. Export of Output Files: Provides options to export the enriched attack chain in JSON or CSV formats. Routing of Output to Other Applications: Facilitates routing of output to various platforms and applications, including: Threat Intelligence Platforms COREII Scout for Threat Intelligence Analysis COREII Modeling and Simulation for Adversary Emulation Technical Description The ACE Application is an advanced cybersecurity tool designed to provide detailed threat analysis and sequence generation. It is built on a robust architecture that integrates natural language processing, machine learning, and historical data modeling. Key Components: Data Ingestion Module: Handles the input of threat reports and data from various formats, ensuring flexibility in data sources. Classification Engine: Employs DeBERTa-based classifiers hosted as FastAPI microservices to analyze and classify threat report events in accordance with the MITRE ATT&CK framework for ICS. Sequence Generator: Orders the classified events into a logical attack chain, providing clear insight into the sequence of tactics and techniques used in the threat. Enrichment Engine: Integrates historical data and adversary emulation capabilities to enhance the attack chain with valuable context and additional details. The historical data enrichment is powered by a Markov model, which is available as a FastAPI endpoint. Export and Routing Module: Facilitates the export of the enriched attack chain in multiple formats and routes the output to designated applications for further analysis or emulation.

Paul, Tony [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho↗

Performance of DSRC V2V Communication Networks in an Autonomous Semi-Truck Platoon Application

Autonomy for multiple trucks to drive in a fixedheadway platoon formation is achieved by adding precision GPS and V2V communications to a conventional adaptive cruise control (ACC) system. The performance of the Cooperative ACC (CACC) system depends heavily on the reliability of the underlying V2V communications network. Using data recorded on precision-instrumented trucks at both ACM and NCAT test tracks, we provide an understanding of various effects on V2V network performance: Occlusions - non-line-of-sight (NLOS) between the Tx and Rx antenna may cause network signal loss. Rain - water droplets in the air may cause network signal degradation. Antenna position - antennas at higher elevation may have less ground clutter to deal with. RF interference - interference may cause network packet loss. GPS outage - outages caused by tree cover, tunnels, etc. may result in degraded performance. Road curvature - curves may affect antenna diversity. Road grade - antenna may have limited vertical coverage. Our results, which include multiple plots and graphs and their analysis, build on those reported by others and could be of interest to researchers, practitioners, and end-users in the broader autonomous-connected vehicle community.

V2V communications, GPS, truck platoon, semi-auton↗

Test of a Novel, Commercial-Scale Wave Energy Direct-Drive Rotary Power Take-Off at the NREL National Wind Technology Center (CRADA CRD-14-571 Final Report)

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) will work with Columbia Power Technologies [C-Power] to support work under US DOE DE-EE-0006399, “Build and Test of a Novel, Commercial-Scale Wave Energy Direct-Drive Rotary Power Take-Off Under Realistic Open-Ocean Conditions.” Work will include a review of their design for a novel wave energy direct drive generator. After review, the system will be prototyped and tested in the NREL National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) 5MW dynamometer and data will be recorded and analyzed. Conclusions from data analysis will be used to improve the design prior to completing a version of the system for ocean deployment. Additionally, NREL will work with Columbia Power Technologies [C-Power] to quantify the system levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and analyze the system in agreement with US DOE System Performance Advancement (SPA) goals 1 and 2.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

X-ray Source Characteristics from July 2020 SGEMP Experiments at the National Ignition Facility

This report details the measured x-ray characteristics radiating from laser targets on 7 shots at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's National Ignition Facility performed June 30 - July 2, 2020. Generally, the x-ray sources were designed to serve as meaningful drivers of a variety of Radiation Effects Sciences response experiments. Specifically, on these 7 shots, the measured x-ray output characteristics and the response experiments serve as a useful data set for validating performance and informing further development of Sandia National Laboratories' EMPIRE code. We present x-ray measurements and analyses relevant to simulating the System-Generated Electro Magnetic Pulse experiments that also occurred on these shots (described elsewhere). Sufficient detail is provided so that a motivated, but novice, x-ray source user could produce some of these analysis results from raw data on similar x-ray shots.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗