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Evolution of 9 solar masses stellar model of population I initial composition from main sequence through core helium burning
In this paper we address several issues pertinent to intrinsic evolvable hardware (EHW). The first issue is scalability; namely, how the design space scales as the programming string for the programmable device gets longer. We develop a model for population size and the number of generations as a function of the programming string length, L, and show that the number of circuit evaluations is an O(L2) process. We compare our model to several successful intrinsic EHW experiments and discuss the many implications of our model. The second issue that we address is the timing of intrinsic EHW experiments. We show that the processing time is a small part of the overall time to derive or evolve a circuit and that major improvements in processor speed alone will have only a minimal impact on improving the scalability of intrinsic EHW. The third issue we consider is the system-level design of intrinsic EHW experiments. We review what other researchers have done to break the scalability barrier and contend that the type of reconfigurable platform and the evolutionary algorithm are tied together and impose limits on each other.
A sounding rocket measurement of the ultraviolet, atomic oxygen dayglow reveals an excess of emission compared to standard thermospheric model calculations at exospheric altitudes. We explore two explanations for this discrepancy: a breakdown of the radiative transfer model due to nonlocal thermal equilibrium (non-LTE) conditions above the exobase and a hot atomic oxygen geocorona. In particular, the effects of non-LTE on the 3P2, 1, 0 sublevel populations are modeled, and a hot O component in the upper thermosphere and lower exosphere is added to investigate the effects on the modeled emissions. For both cases, the data are reanalyzed and compared with the results using a standard LTE model. A hot O geocorona having a peak density of 10(exp 6)/cc at 550 km and a temperature of 4000 K is consistent with the data and appears to be the most reasonable explanation of the high-altitude enhanced emissions observed in the data.
In an on-going project for NASA, we are developing a modeling approach to analyze the relationship between the noise level of sonic booms from an experimental supersonic plane and the level of annoyance measured through community response surveys. The goal of the project is to obtain a quantitative relationship between noise level and annoyance that is representative for the affected population. Particular modeling challenges include multiple annoyance measurements per survey respondent and very few occurrences of annoyance overall. To address these challenges, we propose a two-stage model for the presence of high annoyance, with the first stage modeling the probability that a respondent is ever highly annoyed and the second stage a multilevel logistic regression model for high annoyance based on noise level and demographic characteristics. We use a variation of Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (Gelman and Little, 1997) to obtain an overall representative noise-annoyance curve for the population. The approach is applied to data from a NASA pilot study.
In an on-going project for NASA, we are developing a modeling approach to analyze the relationship between the noise level of sonic booms from an experimental supersonic plane and the level of annoyance measured through community response surveys. The goal of the project is to obtain a quantitative relationship between noise level and annoyance that is representative for the affected population. Particular modeling challenges include multiple annoyance measurements per survey respondent and very few occurrences of annoyance overall. To address these challenges, we propose a two-stage model for the presence of high annoyance, with the first stage modeling the probability that a respondent is ever highly annoyed and the second stage a multilevel logistic regression model for high annoyance based on noise level and demographic characteristics. We use a variation of Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (Gelman and Little, 1997) to obtain an overall representative noise-annoyance curve for the population. The approach is applied to data from a NASA pilot study.
A theoretical framework is developed for including cumulus cloud transport, rainout of water soluble gases, and aqueous phase chemistry into gas phase photochemical models. Cloud populations are represented as ensemble distributions of individual clouds of various heights. An individual cloud is represented as a one-dimensional, steady state plume with height-independent radius entraining air from the boundary of the cloud. The model is applied to several hypothetical atmospheric tracers to show how clouds may affect the tropospheric distributions of ozone, NO(y), SO2, peroxyacetylnitrate, hydrocarbons, and other gases. Although the numerical experiments were based on cloud mass fluxes from diagnostic studies in the tropics and thus are not representative of the entire globe, it was found that an increasing mixing ratio with height in the free troposphere can be produced for some gases with only a surface source when clouds are present. This suggests that some reactive tropospheric species with primarily surface sources may play a somewhat more important role in tropospheric chemistry than is presently believed depending on the global distribution of cloud mass fluxes. Deficiencies in existing photochemical models due to the way clouds are typically treated are discussed.
Searches for continuous gravitational waves (GW) from unknown Galactic neutron stars provide limits on the shapes of neutron stars. A rotating neutron star will produce GW if asymmetric deformations exist in its structure that are characterized by the star's ellipticity. Here, in this study, we use a simple model of the spatial and spin distribution of Galactic neutron stars to estimate the total number of neutron stars probed, using GW, to a given upper limit on the ellipticity. This may help optimize future searches with improved sensitivity. The improved sensitivity of third-generation GW detectors may increase the number of neutron stars probed, to a given ellipticity, by factors of 100 to 1000.
We have obtained 1-2 A resolution optical Echellette spectra of the nuclear star cluster in the nearby starburst galaxy NGC4449. The light is clearly dominated by a very young (6 - 10 Myr) population of stars. For our age dating, we have used recent population synthesis models to interpret the observed equivalent width of stellar absorption features such as the H I Balmer series and the Ca II triplet around 8500 A. We also compare the observed spectrum of the nuclear cluster to synthesized spectra for stellar populations of varying ages. All these approaches yield a consistent cluster age. Metallicity estimates based on the relative intensities of various ionization lines yield no evidence for significant enrichment in the center of this low mass galaxy: the metallicity of the nuclear cluster is about one fourth of the solar value, in agreement with independent estimates for the disk material of NGC4449.
The optimization of landing trajectories of the Boeing 737 is presented. The primary factor considered was the noise delivered to the population residing near an air terminal but passenger comfort, fuel consumption and time elapsed during the maneuver were also considered. A digital simulation of the aircraft, a noise model and a passenger comfort model, was completed. The digital simulation was made more efficient time-wise. A population model for an urban area was developed and the noise model was integrated into the population model. A steepest descent optimization algorithm was programmed. Some constant glide slope trajectories into an urban Airport were simulated and evaluated with respect to the performance index, and their ground track plotted.
In this work, we present follow-up spectroscopy of 711 white dwarfs within 100 pc, and we present a detailed model atmosphere analysis of the 100 pc white dwarf sample in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey footprint. Our spectroscopic follow-up is complete for 83% of the white dwarfs hotter than 6000 K, where the atmospheric composition can be constrained reliably. We identify 1508 DA white dwarfs with pure hydrogen atmospheres. The DA mass distribution has an extremely narrow peak at 0.59 M ⊙ and reveals a shoulder from relatively massive white dwarfs with M = 0.7–0.9 M ⊙. Comparing this distribution with binary population synthesis models, we find that the contribution from single stars that form through mergers cannot explain the overabundance of massive white dwarfs. In addition, the mass distribution of cool DAs shows a near absence of M > 1 M ⊙ white dwarfs. The pile-up of 0.7–0.9 M ⊙ and the disappearance of M > 1 M ⊙ white dwarfs is consistent with the effects of core crystallization. Even though the evolutionary models predict the location of the pile-up correctly, the delay from the latent heat of crystallization by itself is insufficient to create a significant pile-up, and additional cooling delays from related effects like phase separation are necessary. We also discuss the population of infrared-faint (ultracool) white dwarfs and demonstrate for the first time the existence of a well-defined sequence in color and magnitude. Curiously, this sequence is connected to a region in the color–magnitude diagrams where the number of white dwarfs with a helium-dominated atmosphere is low. This suggests that the infrared-faint white dwarfs likely have mixed H/He atmospheres.
We have completed a high-contrast direct imaging survey for giant planets around 57 debris disk stars as part of the Gemini NICI Planet-Finding Campaign. We achieved median H-band contrasts of 12.4 mag at 0farcs5 and 14.1 mag at 1'' separation. Follow-up observations of the 66 candidates with projected separation <500 AU show that all of them are background objects. To establish statistical constraints on the underlying giant planet population based on our imaging data, we have developed a new Bayesian formalism that incorporates (1) non-detections, (2) single-epoch candidates, (3) astrometric and (4) photometric information, and (5) the possibility of multiple planets per star to constrain the planet population. Our formalism allows us to include in our analysis the previously known β Pictoris and the HR 8799 planets. Our results show at 95% confidence that <13% of debris disk stars have a ≥5 M Jup planet beyond 80 AU, and <21% of debris disk stars have a ≥3 M Jup planet outside of 40 AU, based on hot-start evolutionary models. We model the population of directly imaged planets as d(sq.)N/dMda ∝ m(sub α) a(sup β), where m is planet mass and a is orbital semi-major axis (with a maximum value of a(sub max)). We find that β < -0.8 and/or α > 1.7. Likewise, we find that β < -0.8 and/or a(sub max) < 200 AU. For the case where the planet frequency rises sharply with mass (α > 1.7), this occurs because all the planets detected to date have masses above 5 M(sub Jup), but planets of lower mass could easily have been detected by our search. If we ignore the β Pic and HR 8799 planets (should they belong to a rare and distinct group), we find that <20% of debris disk stars have a ≥3 M(sub Jup) planet beyond 10 AU, and β < -0.8 and/or α < -1.5. Likewise, β < -0.8 and/or a(sub max) < 125 AU. Our Bayesian constraints are not strong enough to reveal any dependence of the planet frequency on stellar host mass. Studies of transition disks have suggested that about 20% of stars are undergoing planet formation; our non-detections at large separations show that planets with orbital separation >40 AU and planet masses >3 M(sub Jup) do not carve the central holes in these disks.
Introduction: In temperate regions, one of the most critical determinants of present range-wide genetic diversity was the Pleistocene climate oscillations, the most recent one created by the last glacial maximum (LGM). This study aimed to describe N. luetkeana genetic structure across its entire range (Alaska to California) and test different models of population connectivity within the Salish Sea. This region was colonized after the LGM and has been under increased disturbance in recent decades. Methods: We utilized microsatellite markers to study N. luetkeana genetic diversity at 53 sites across its range. Using higher sampling density in the Salish Sea, we employed a seascape genetics approach and tested isolation by hydrodynamic transport and environment models. Results: At the species distribution scale, we found four main groups of genetic co-ancestry, Alaska; Washington with Vancouver Island’s outer coast and Juan de Fuca Strait; Washington’s inner Salish Sea; and Oregon with California. The highest allelic richness (AR) levels were found in California, near the trailing range edge, although AR was also high in Alaska. The inner Salish Sea region had the poorest diversity across the species distribution. Nevertheless, a pattern of isolation by hydrodynamic transport and environment was supported in this region. Discussion: The levels of allelic, private allele richness and genetic differentiation suggest that during the LGM, bull kelp had both northern and southern glacial refugia in the Prince of Wales Island-Haida Gwaii region and Central California, respectively. Genetic diversity in Northern California sites seems resilient to recent disturbances, whereas the low levels of genetic diversity in the inner Salish Sea are concerning.
The transition from stable to unstable fracture propagation occurs when fractures begin to interact and link. Thus, fracture network coalescence controls how rocks and engineered structures fail. Here, to constrain the factors that influence localization in shear zones under brittle conditions, we build discrete element method models with a rough fault embedded in a shear zone. We add varying numbers of diffuse, randomly-placed weaknesses to examine the influence of diffuse damage on fracture network localization. The number of weaknesses controls the localization behavior of the fault network and the final fault geometry. We quantify localization using the Gini coefficient of the fracture volume, which measures the nonuniformity in a population. Each model generally increases in localization toward failure. However, models with more diffuse damage experience delocalization phases that are superimposed on the overall trend of increasing localization. The observed link between delocalization and host rock damage may help explain the varying localization of low magnitude seismicity in southern California. Models with more diffuse damage produce more complex fault geometries comprised of several parallel strands of wing cracks. The propagation of these wing cracks reduces the shear stress acting on the model boundaries, indicating that this fracture development increases the mechanical efficiency of the system.
Increasing evidence has shown that thirdhand smoke (THS) exposure is likely to induce adverse health effects. An important knowledge gap remains in our understanding of THS exposure related to cancer risk in the human population. Population-based animal models are useful and powerful in investigating the interplay between host genetics and THS exposure on cancer risk. Here, we used the Collaborative Cross (CC) mouse population-based model system, which recapitulates the genetic and phenotypic diversity observed in the human population, to assess cancer risk after a short period of exposure, between 4 and 9 weeks of age. Eight CC strains (CC001, CC019, CC026, CC036, CC037, CC041, CC042 and CC051) were included in our study. We quantified pan-tumor incidence, tumor burden per mouse, organ tumor spectrum and tumor-free survival until 18 months of age. At the population level, we observed a significantly increased pan-tumor incidence and tumor burden per mouse in THS-treated mice as compared to the control (p = 3.04E-06). Lung and liver tissues exhibited the largest risk of undergoing tumorigenesis after THS exposure. Tumor-free survival was significantly reduced in THS-treated mice compared to control (p = 0.044). At the individual strain level, we observed a large variation in tumor incidence across the 8 CC strains. CC036 and CC041 exhibited a significant increase in pan-tumor incidence (p = 0.0084 and p = 0.000066, respectively) after THS exposure compared to control. We conclude that early-life THS exposure increases tumor development in CC mice and that host genetic background plays an important role in individual susceptibility to THS-induced tumorigenesis. Genetic background is an important factor that should be taken into account when determining human cancer risk of THS exposure.
We explore neutrino emission from nonrotating, single-star models across six initial metallicities and 70 initial masses from the zero-age main sequence to the final fate. Overall, across the mass spectrum, we find metal-poor stellar models tend to have denser, hotter, and more massive cores with lower envelope opacities, larger surface luminosities, and larger effective temperatures than their metal-rich counterparts. Across the mass–metallicity plane we identify the sequence (initial CNO → 14 N → 22 Ne → 25 Mg → 26 Al → 26 Mg → 30 P → 30 Si) as making primary contributions to the neutrino luminosity at different phases of evolution. For the low-mass models we find neutrino emission from the nitrogen flash and thermal pulse phases of evolution depend strongly on the initial metallicity. For the high-mass models, neutrino emission at He-core ignition and He-shell burning depends strongly on the initial metallicity. Antineutrino emission during C, Ne, and O burning shows a strong metallicity dependence with 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg providing much of the neutron excess available for inverse-β decays. We integrate the stellar tracks over an initial mass function and time to investigate the neutrino emission from a simple stellar population. We find average neutrino emission from simple stellar populations to be 0.5–1.2 MeV electron neutrinos. Lower metallicity stellar populations produce slightly larger neutrino luminosities and average β decay energies. This study can provide targets for neutrino detectors from individual stars and stellar populations. We provide convenient fitting formulae and open access to the photon and neutrino tracks for more sophisticated population synthesis models.
Particulate attrition is of interest for novel carbon-capture processes such as chemical looping combustion because the makeup cost of oxygen carrier is a significant portion of operating cost. As such, models to study and predict attrition of various oxygen carriers in fluidized bed systems are being developed. One of the regions of concern in fluidized bed systems is the high-velocity jet region near gas distributors in a fluid bed. This work studies the attrition of hematite particles using a modified ASTM apparatus to measure the particle size distribution throughout the experiment. Bed weight and gas velocity were varied. Hematite particles above the corresponding threshold value had a severe variation of particle size distributions which decreased with time. Weight fractions of the sieves over time were fit to a linear, time-variant population balance model to offer insight into particle attrition. The first-order rate constant was modified as a decaying exponential.
The dynamics of malaria transmission are driven by environmental, biotic and socioeconomic factors. Because of the geographic dependency of these factors and the complex interactions among them, it is difficult to generalize the key factors that perpetuate or intensify malaria transmission. Methods: Discrete event simulations were used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. Meteorological and environmental parameters may be derived from satellite data. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results were compared with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired over 4.5 years (June 1999 - January 2004) in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in Kanchanaburi Province, western Thailand. Results: Three years of transmissions of vivax and falciparum malaria were simulated for a hypothetical hamlet with approximately 1/7 of the study site population. The model generated results for a number of scenarios, including applications of larvicide and insecticide, asymptomatic cases receiving or not receiving treatment, blocking malaria transmission in mosquito vectors, and increasing the density of farm (host) animals in the hamlet. Transmission characteristics and trends in the simulated results are comparable to actual data collected at the study site.
A hydrodynamically pulsating 0.6 solar mass model of a typical RR Lyrae variable was studied with a radiation transport-hydrodynamic computer program to predict theoretical T sub 3 and colors at many phases and to find the proper methods for getting mean colors and the consequent mean effective temperatures. The variable Eddington radiation approximation method was used with gray and with multifrequency absorption coefficients to represent the radiation flow in the outer optically thin layers. Comparison between observed and computed B-V colors indicate that these low Z population 2 models are reasonably accurate using King 1A composition opacities. The well known Oke, Giver, and Searle relation between B-V and T sub e reproduced. Mean colors were found by four different averaging methods. The method that gives a mean color and the mean T sub e closest to the nonpulsating model was the separate intensity means of B and V.