Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Predictive models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

A life prediction model for laminated composite structural components

A life prediction methodology for laminated continuous fiber composites subjected to fatigue loading conditions was developed. A summary is presented of research completed. A phenomenological damage evolution law was formulated for matrix cracking which is independent of stacking sequence. Mechanistic and physical support was developed for the phenomenological evolution law proposed above. The damage evolution law proposed above was implemented to a finite element computer program. And preliminary predictions were obtained for a structural component undergoing fatigue loading induced damage.

Allen, David H.

Model predictions of wind and turbulence profiles associated with an ensemble of aircraft accidents

The feasibility of predicting conditions under which wind/turbulence environments hazardous to aviation operations exist is studied by examining a number of different accidents in detail. A model of turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer is used to reconstruct wind and turbulence profiles which may have existed at low altitudes at the time of the accidents. The predictions are consistent with available flight recorder data, but neither the input boundary conditions nor the flight recorder observations are sufficiently precise for these studies to be interpreted as verification tests of the model predictions.

Williamson, G. G.

Optimal control model predictions of system performance and attention allocation and their experimental validation in a display design study

The influence of different types of predictor displays in a longitudinal vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) hover task is analyzed in a theoretical study. Several cases with differing amounts of predictive and rate information are compared. The optimal control model of the human operator is used to estimate human and system performance in terms of root-mean-square (rms) values and to compute optimized attention allocation. The only part of the model which is varied to predict these data is the observation matrix. Typical cases are selected for a subsequent experimental validation. The rms values as well as eye-movement data are recorded. The results agree favorably with those of the theoretical study in terms of relative differences. Better matching is achieved by revised model input data.

Johannsen, G.

Developing predictive models for µ opioid receptor binding using machine learning and deep learning techniques

Opioids exert their analgesic effect by binding to the µ opioid receptor (MOR), which initiates a downstream signaling pathway, eventually inhibiting pain transmission in the spinal cord. However, current opioids are addictive, often leading to overdose contributing to the opioid crisis in the United States. Therefore, understanding the structure-activity relationship between MOR and its ligands is essential for predicting MOR binding of chemicals, which could assist in the development of non-addictive or less-addictive opioid analgesics. This study aimed to develop machine learning and deep learning models for predicting MOR binding activity of chemicals. Chemicals with MOR binding activity data were first curated from public databases and the literature. Molecular descriptors of the curated chemicals were calculated using software Mold2. The chemicals were then split into training and external validation datasets. Random forest, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, multi-layer perceptron, and long short-term memory models were developed and evaluated using 5-fold cross-validations and external validations, resulting in Matthews correlation coefficients of 0.528–0.654 and 0.408, respectively. Furthermore, prediction confidence and applicability domain analyses highlighted their importance to the models’ applicability. Our results suggest that the developed models could be useful for identifying MOR binders, potentially aiding in the development of non-addictive or less-addictive drugs targeting MOR.

Research & Experimental Medicine

A signal detection model predicts the effects of set size on visual search accuracy for feature, conjunction, triple conjunction, and disjunction displays

Recently, quantitative models based on signal detection theory have been successfully applied to the prediction of human accuracy in visual search for a target that differs from distractors along a single attribute (feature search). The present paper extends these models for visual search accuracy to multidimensional search displays in which the target differs from the distractors along more than one feature dimension (conjunction, disjunction, and triple conjunction displays). The model assumes that each element in the display elicits a noisy representation for each of the relevant feature dimensions. The observer combines the representations across feature dimensions to obtain a single decision variable, and the stimulus with the maximum value determines the response. The model accurately predicts human experimental data on visual search accuracy in conjunctions and disjunctions of contrast and orientation. The model accounts for performance degradation without resorting to a limited-capacity spatially localized and temporally serial mechanism by which to bind information across feature dimensions.

Non-NASA Center

Proton Fluence Prediction Models

Many spacecraft anomalies are caused by positively charged high energy particles impinging on the vehicle and its component parts. Here we review the current knowledge of the interplanetary particle environment in the energy ranges that are most important for these effects, 10 to 100 MeV/amu. The emphasis is on the particle environment at 1 AU. State-of-the-art engineering models are briefly described along with comments on the future work required in this field.

Proton Fluence Prediction Models spacecraft anomal

Validation of Aircraft Noise Prediction Models at Low Levels of Exposure

Aircraft noise measurements were made at Denver International Airport for a period of four weeks. Detailed operational information was provided by airline operators which enabled noise levels to be predicted using the FAA's Integrated Noise Model. Several thrust prediction techniques were evaluated. Measured sound exposure levels for departure operations were found to be 4 to 10 dB higher than predicted, depending on the thrust prediction technique employed. Differences between measured and predicted levels are shown to be related to atmospheric conditions present at the aircraft altitude.

Page, Juliet A.

Validation of Aircraft Noise Prediction Models at Low Levels of Exposure

Aircraft noise measurements were made at Denver International Airport for a period of four weeks. Detailed operational information was provided by airline operators which enabled noise levels to be predicted using the FAA's Integrated Noise Model. Several thrust prediction techniques were evaluated. Measured sound exposure levels for departure operations were found to be 4 to 10 dB higher than predicted, depending on the thrust prediction technique employed. Differences between measured and predicted levels are shown to be related to atmospheric conditions present at the aircraft altitude.

Page, Juliet A.

A Performance Prediction Model for a Fault-Tolerant Computer During Recovery and Restoration

The modeling and design of a fault-tolerant multiprocessor system is addressed. Of interest is the behavior of the system during recovery and restoration after a fault has occurred. The multiprocessor systems are based on the Algorithm to Architecture Mapping Model (ATAMM) and the fault considered is the death of a processor. The developed model is useful in the determination of performance bounds of the system during recovery and restoration. The performance bounds include time to recover from the fault, time to restore the system, and determination of any permanent delay in the input to output latency after the system has regained steady state. Implementation of an ATAMM based computer was developed for a four-processor generic VHSIC spaceborne computer (GVSC) as the target system. A simulation of the GVSC was also written on the code used in the ATAMM Multicomputer Operating System (AMOS). The simulation is used to verify the new model for tracking the propagation of the delay through the system and predicting the behavior of the transient state of recovery and restoration. The model is shown to accurately predict the transient behavior of an ATAMM based multicomputer during recovery and restoration.

Obando, Rodrigo A.

A Performance Prediction Model for a Fault-Tolerant Computer During Recovery and Restoration

The modeling and design of a fault-tolerant multiprocessor system is addressed. In particular, the behavior of the system during recovery and restoration after a fault has occurred is investigated. Given that a multicomputer system is designed using the Algorithm to Architecture to Mapping Model (ATAMM), and that a fault (death of a computing resource) occurs during its normal steady-state operation, a model is presented as a viable research tool for predicting the performance bounds of the system during its recovery and restoration phases. Furthermore, the bounds of the performance behavior of the system during this transient mode can be assessed. These bounds include: time to recover from the fault (t(sub rec)), time to restore the system (t(sub rec)) and whether there is a permanent delay in the system's Time Between Input and Output (TBIO) after the system has reached a steady state. An implementation of an ATAMM based computer was developed with the Generic VHSIC Spaceborne Computer (GVSC) as the target system. A simulation of the GVSC was also written based on the code used in ATAMM Multicomputer Operating System (AMOS). The simulation is in turn used to validate the new model in the usefulness and accuracy in tracking the propagation of the delay through the system and predicting the behavior in the transient state of recovery and restoration. The model is validated as an accurate method to predict the transient behavior of an ATAMM based multicomputer during recovery and restoration.

Stoughton, John W.

An Intercomparison of Lidar Ozone and Temperature Measurements From the SOLVE Mission With Predicted Model Values

Temperature profiles acquired by Goddard Space Flight Center's AROTEL lidar during the SOLVE mission onboard NASA's DC-8 are compared with predicted values from several atmospheric models (DAO, NCEP and UKMO). The variability in the differences between measured and calculated temperature fields was approximately 5 K. Retrieved temperatures within the polar vortex showed large regions that were significantly colder than predicted by the atmospheric models.

Burris, John

Predictive Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification in Condition Monitoring of Active Components: A Reactor Coolant Pump Use Case

This work develops data-driven models for onset of thermal barrier leakage in reactor coolant pumps. It incorporates uncertainty quantification to enhance the reliability and robustness of pre- dictions. Using synthetic data generated by the Generic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator, realistic degradation scenarios were simulated across lifecycle stages—beginning, middle, and end of life. Key variables, including differential pressure, flow rate, vibration, and temperatures, were analyzed using machine learning framework. The fully connected neural network models demonstrated exceptional performance, achieving R2 scores exceeding 0.99 and root mean square errors as low as around 8.23 × 10-2 gallon per minute (gpm) for the three stages of the lifecy- cle. UQ analysis further validated the model’s robustness, with narrow uncertainty bounds during steady-state operations and appropriately wider bounds during transitional phases, reflecting the physical behavior of the system. This work addresses important gaps in real-time condition moni- toring and regulatory compliance by integrating advanced condition monitoring technologies with UQ into IST programs. The ability to detect thermal barrier leakage early and quantify prediction reliability supports optimizing maintenance strategies while ensuring nuclear power plants’ safe and reliable operation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

Sensitivity of Global Modeling Initiative Model Predictions of Antarctic Ozone Recovery to Input Meteorological Fields

We use the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model to simulate the evolution of stratospheric ozone between 1995 and 2030, using boundary conditions consistent with the recent World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. We compare the Antarctic ozone recovery predictions of two simulations, one driven by an annually repeated year of meteorological data from a general circulation model (GCM), the other using a year of output from a data assimilation system (DAS), to examine the sensitivity of Antarctic ozone recovery predictions to the characteristic dynamical differences between GCM- and DAS-generated meteorological data. Although the age of air in the Antarctic lower stratosphere differs by a factor of 2 between the simulations, we find little sensitivity of the 1995-2030 Antarctic ozone recovery between 350 and 650 K to the differing meteorological fields, particularly when the recovery is specified in mixing ratio units. Percent changes are smaller in the DAS-driven simulation compared to the GCM-driven simulation because of a surplus of Antarctic ozone in the DAS-driven simulation which is not consistent with observations. The peak ozone change between 1995 and 2030 in both simulations is approx.20% lower than photochemical expectations, indicating that changes in ozone transport due to changing ozone gradients at 450 K between 1995 and 2030 constitute a small negative feedback. Total winter/spring ozone loss during the base year (1995) of both simulations and the rate of ozone loss during August and September is somewhat weaker than observed. This appears to be due to underestimates of Antarctic Cl(sub y) at the 450 K potential temperature level.

Considine, David B.

Environment enhanced fatigue crack propagation in metals: Inputs to fracture mechanics life prediction models

This report is a critical review of both environment-enhanced fatigue crack propagation data and the predictive capabilities of crack growth rate models. This information provides the necessary foundation for incorporating environmental effects in NASA FLAGRO and will better enable predictions of aerospace component fatigue lives. The review presents extensive literature data on 'stress corrosion cracking and corrosion fatigue.' The linear elastic fracture mechanics approach, based on stress intensity range (Delta(K)) similitude with microscopic crack propagation threshold and growth rates, provides a basis for these data. Results are presented showing enhanced growth rates for gases (viz., H2 and H2O) and electrolytes (e.g. NaCl and H2O) in aerospace alloys including: C-Mn and heat treated alloy steels, aluminum alloys, nickel-based superalloys, and titanium alloys. Environment causes purely time-dependent accelerated fatigue crack growth above the monotonic load cracking threshold (KIEAC) and promotes cycle-time dependent cracking below (KIEAC). These phenomenon are discussed in terms of hydrogen embrittlement, dissolution, and film rupture crack tip damage mechanisms.

Gangloff, Richard P.

Initial comparison of single cylinder Stirling engine computer model predictions with test results

A NASA developed digital computer code for a Stirling engine, modelling the performance of a single cylinder rhombic drive ground performance unit (GPU), is presented and its predictions are compared to test results. The GPU engine incorporates eight regenerator/cooler units and the engine working space is modelled by thirteen control volumes. The model calculates indicated power and efficiency for a given engine speed, mean pressure, heater and expansion space metal temperatures and cooler water inlet temperature and flow rate. Comparison of predicted and observed powers implies that the reference pressure drop calculations underestimate actual pressure drop, possibly due to oil contamination in the regenerator/cooler units, methane contamination in the working gas or the underestimation of mechanical loss. For a working gas of hydrogen, the predicted values of brake power are from 0 to 6% higher than experimental values, and brake efficiency is 6 to 16% higher, while for helium the predicted brake power and efficiency are 2 to 15% higher than the experimental.

Tew, R. C., Jr.