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DOE OSTI2025

Wind and Weather Variability within the Californian Offshore Wind Energy Areas

Weather variability over the Northeast Pacific (NEP) region and its influence on wind resources within the Californian offshore wind energy areas (WEAs) at Humboldt and Morro Bay are characterized using 20-years reanalysis model and satellite data. The hub-height (180 m) winds at both locations are predominantly northwesterly driven by the NEP high pressure system, with strong coastal gradients in surface pressure, fluxes, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depths and cloudiness. These sharp coastal gradients and strong annual cycles of temperature and moisture advections pose potential challenges in accurately modeling the local wind resource. Hub-height wind speeds and power capacity factors significantly vary for different regimes of PBL depths, surface fluxes and rain area fractions. This highlights the importance of studying the physical mechanisms driving these weather regimes, hence our analysis of how large-scale NEP weather variability drives the local meteorology at the WEAs. Furthermore, at both WEAs, PBL tops and cloud boundaries intersect the rotor layer (80-280 m) more than 30% and 20% of the time, respectively. While PBL depths significantly modulates hub-height winds and power, cloud boundaries do not have a similar impact, likely due to reanalysis errors in simulating cloud boundaries accurately. These findings underscore the challenges in deploying tall wind turbines in shallow cloudy boundary layers, where the interaction between clouds, precipitation, and atmospheric layers can impact turbine efficiency. As turbines grow taller and are deployed in more complex meteorological conditions, understanding these interactions is crucial for improving wind power forecasting and optimizing energy production in coastal regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating Injection‐Induced Seismicity Along Basement Faults by Extraction: Application to 2016–2018 Pohang Earthquakes

Abstract The risk of induced earthquake is considered as the major obstacle for sustainable subsurface energy activities. As a mitigation approach, mechanistic risk assessment can be essential to minimize the potential of seismic hazard. Coupled hydro‐mechanical modeling approach is integrated with geomechanical analysis to better assess the occurrence of seismicity induced by injection and/or extraction, which will provide a basis to update operational conditions (e.g., number and location of mitigating wells, rate and duration of operations) for mitigating earthquake nucleation. The Coulomb stability analysis and seismicity rate estimates from this generic study indicate that simultaneous extraction can relieve injection‐induced pore‐pressure buildup, but also transfer and accumulate elastic energy along the faults. Field‐scale simulation with variation in well design for the Pohang EGS site, South Korea, show that multiple wells aligned across a preexisting fault form gradients of pressure and stress fields normal to the fault, which can enhance the direct impact of diffusion process and poroelastic stressing on the fault stability perturbation. Our mechanistic study suggests multiphysics‐oriented mitigation strategies that consider (1) possible mechanical deformation, caused by hydro‐mechanical coupling effects, and (2) proper configuration of well operations based on site‐specific geological characteristics.

Chang, K. W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerical modeling of plasma assisted deflagration to detonation transition in a microscale channel

Here, this work numerically studies the plasma assisted deflagration to detonation transition (DDT) of H 2 /O 2 mixtures in a microscale channel with detailed chemistry and transport. The results show that the DDT onset time is non-monotonically dependent on the discharge pulse number. The DDT is accelerated with small pulse numbers, whereas retarded with large ones. Two different DDT regimes, respectively at a small and large plasma discharge number, via acoustic choking of the burned gas and plasma-enhanced reactivity gradient without acoustic choking, are observed. Without plasma discharge, pronounced pressure and temperature gradients in front of the flame are generated by acoustic compression after the choking of the burned gas, triggering DDT via autoignition. With small plasma pulse numbers, the plasma-generated species enhance the ignition kinetics and lead to an increased reactivity in the boundary layer. After the choking of the burned gas, the plasma-enhanced reactivity advances the sequence of autoignition near the wall, strengthens ignition-shock wave coupling, and accelerates DDT. However, with a large discharge pulse number, a direct autoignition initiating DDT can occur without the acoustic choking of the burned gas due to the strongly accelerated reactivity and elevated temperature. In this case, DDT onset is retarded because the elevated temperature increases sonic velocity and the increased reactivity accelerates fuel oxidation in front of the flame, decelerating the formation of a leading shock and subsequent pressure buildup ahead of the flame. The present modeling reveals that no matter with or without plasma discharge, DDT is initiated by autoignition in thermal, pressure, and reactivity gradient fields via the Zel'dovich gradient mechanism. The acoustic choking of the burned gas may not be the necessary condition of DDT with strong plasma-enhanced reactivity gradient. This work provides an answer to the experimentally observed non-monotonic DDT onset time by plasma, which provides guidance to control DDT in advanced detonation engines and fire safety of hydrogen-fueled catalytic reactors in microchannels by non-equilibrium plasma discharge.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Wind Shear and Wind Veer Effects on Wind Turbines

This chapter highlights key contributions to the scientific literature on the sources of wind shear and wind veer in the atmospheric boundary layer, observations of shear and veer, and the effects of shear and veer on wind turbine power production, wind turbine wake evolution, and wind turbine loads. As wind turbines have grown larger, they encounter deeper and more complicated regions of the atmosphere. Over this height, profiles of wind speed shear and wind direction veer play a quantifiable role. Changes in the wind speed and wind direction across the vertical extent of a wind turbine rotor disk modify the inflow vector on the blades of the turbine, thereby affecting the magnitude and orientation of the lift and drag forces of the blade's airfoil. These changes can affect the power production and loads on large modern turbines, as well as the evolution of the wake that could affect a downwind turbine.

atmospheric stability↗

DOE OSTI2024

In tube condensation of low global warming potential refrigerants in an axial micro-fin aluminum tube

Environmental regulations have driven the development of refrigerants with low global warming potential (GWP). To design heat exchangers using these new refrigerants, data are needed concerning the heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop in two-phase flow. Another change is the increasing use of aluminum tubes rather than copper tubes to reduce heat exchanger cost. Hence, this study presents an experimental investigation of flow condensation using an expanded axial micro-fin aluminum tube with a fin-tip diameter of 5.96 mm. Here, the experiments included single compounds R-32, R-1234yf, and R-1234ze(E), zeotropic mixtures with low glide (R-454B), and zeotropic mixtures with high-glide (R-454C and R-455A). Experiments were conducted at condensation temperatures ranging from 40 °C to 50 °C, reduced pressures ranging from 0.21 to 0.55, and mass fluxes ranging from 150 to 350 kg/(m 2 s). Data obtained for these refrigerants constitute one of the first reports for high-glide refrigerants using axial micro-fin aluminum tubes. An evaluation of heat transfer degradation of zeotropic mixtures due to mass transfer resistance at the liquid/vapor interface is presented. This information can be used to design heat exchangers for next generation air conditioning and refrigeration systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation and development of flow condensation correlations using the data from low GWP refrigerants in an axial micro-fin aluminum tube

To mitigate global warming, the world is transitioning to refrigerants with low global warming potential (GWP). Supporting this shift requires a model that can accurately predict the heat transfer and pressure drop of new refrigerants, crucial for designing efficient heat exchangers. Existing models, however, are largely based on currently deployed refrigerants and primarily developed for unexpanded micro-fin tubes with spiral angles of 6° to 30°. Their applicability to new refrigerants, especially in expanded micro-fin tubes, is uncertain. This study assesses the performance of four well-known condensation models for six emerging refrigerants—R-32, R-454B, R-454C, R-455A, R-1234yf, and R-1234ze(E)—against experimental data. Initially, the Han and Lee (2005) model shows the best prediction accuracy with a mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 22.1 %. To enhance the accuracy of heat transfer models for new refrigerants and geometries with large temperature glides, two approaches are proposed. Here, the first approach applies a simple correction factor, reducing the MAD of the Cavallini et al. (2009) model from 68.2 % to 15.4 %. The second approach uses the variable metric method for minimization, fitting new constants to the data. This optimization results in the Kedzierski and Goncalves (1997) model achieving the highest accuracy, with a MAD of 13.1 %. For pressure drop models, the Cavallini et al. (1997) model is the most accurate with a MAD of 6.4 %, followed by the Haraguchi et al. (1993) model with a MAD of 9.4 %. Due to its simplicity, the Haraguchi et al. (1993) model is a practical option for predicting frictional pressure drop.

Axial micro-fin tubes↗

DOE OSTI2020

Aerosol Impacts on Mesoscale Convective Systems Forming Under Different Vertical Wind Shear Conditions

Following our previous study of wind shear effect on mesoscale convective system (MCS) organization under a clean atmospheric condition using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Spectral-Bin Microphysics, we conduct sensitivity simulations by increasing cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration and investigate aerosol impacts on MCSs forming under different wind shear conditions. We find that, aerosols induce stronger updrafts and downdrafts in all MCSs. The stronger updrafts and enlarged convective core area contribute to larger vertical mass fluxes and enhance precipitation, indicating convective invigoration. Increased updraft speed below 8-km altitude mainly results from enhanced condensational heating, and increased water loading effect is not large enough to overcome the increase in thermal buoyancy. Interestingly, above 8-km altitude we see reduced updraft speed by the increased aerosols due to reduced vertical pressure perturbation gradient force, and weakened depositional growth due to competition of water vapor by enhanced condensation. The accumulated rainfall and mean rain rate are increased, with an increased occurrence frequency of heavy rain. The increase of rain rate is seen in both convective and stratiform regions, with a more significant increase in convective rain rate. In general, we see a higher frequency of deep convective cloud in the polluted condition because of invigorated convection, and more stratiform/anvil clouds, but a lower frequency of shallow warm clouds. The unanimously invigorated MCSs by aerosols under various wind shear conditions revealed by this study has an important implication in weather and climate at warm and humid regions that are influenced by pollution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermal Pressure in the Laser‐Heated Diamond Anvil Cell: A Quantitative Study and Implications for the Density Versus Mineralogy Correlation of the Mantle

Abstract Thermal pressure is an inevitable thermodynamic consequence of heating a volumetrically constrained sample in the diamond anvil cell. Its possible influences on experimentally determined density‐mineralogy correlations are widely appreciated, yet the effect itself has never been experimentally measured. We present here the first quantitative measurements of the spatial distribution of thermal pressure in a laser‐heated diamond anvil cell (LHDAC) in both olivine and AgI. The observed thermal pressure is strongly localized and closely follows the distribution of the laser hotspot. The magnitude of the thermal pressure is of the order of the thermodynamic thermal pressure ( αK T Δ T ) with gradients between 0.5 and 1.0 GPa/10 μm. Remarkably, we measure a steep gradient in thermal pressure even in a sample that is heated close to its melting line. This generates consequences for pressure determinations in pressure‐volume‐temperature (PVT) equation of state measurements when using an LHDAC. We show that an incomplete account of thermal pressure in PVT experiments can lead to biases in the coveted depth versus mineralogy correlation. However, the ability to spatially resolve thermal pressure in an LHDAC opens avenues to measure difficult‐to‐constrain thermodynamic derivative properties, which are important for comprehensive thermodynamic descriptions of the interior of planets.

Yen, Connor Ethan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of subsurface transport processes of delayed gas signatures applicable to underground nuclear explosions

Radioactive gas signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) result from gas-migration processes occurring in the subsurface. The processes considered in this study either drive or retard upward migration of gases from the detonation cavity. The relative importance of these processes is evaluated by simulating subsurface transport in a dual-permeability medium for the multi-tracer Noble Gas Migration Experiment (NGME) originally intended to study some aspects of transport from a UNE. For this experiment, relevant driving processes include weak two-phase convection driven by the geothermal gradient, over pressuring of the detonation cavity, and barometric pumping while gas sorption, dissolution, radioactive decay, and usually diffusion represent retarding processes. From deterministic simulations we found that over-pressuring of the post-detonation chimney coupled with barometric pumping produced a synergistic effect amplifying the tracer-gas reaching the surface. Bounding simulations indicated that the sorption and dissolution of gases, tending to retard transport, were much smaller than anticipated by earlier laboratory studies. The NGME observations themselves show that differences in gas diffusivity have a larger effect on influencing upward transport than do the combined effects of tracer-gas sorption and dissolution, which is consistent with a Sobol’ sensitivity analysis. Both deterministic simulations and those considering parametric uncertainties of transport-related properties predict that the excess in concentration of SF 6 compared to 127 Xe as might be captured in small volumetric samples should be much smaller than the order-of-magnitude contrast found in the large-volume gas samples taken at the site. While extraction of large-volume subsurface gas samples is shown to be capable of distorting in situ gas compositions, the highly variable injection rate of SF 6 into the detonation cavity relative to that of 127 Xe at the start of the field experiment is the most likely explanation for the large difference in observed concentrations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

MHD stability trends and improved performance of LHD inward-shifted configurations: The role of the neutral beam current drive and thermal plasma density

The aim of the present study is to analyze the effect of the neutral beam current drive (NBCD), thermal plasma density, and NBI operational regime on the stability of pressure gradient-driven modes (PGDM) and Alfvén eigenmodes (AE) in LHD inward-shifted configurations. The stabilization of n/m = 1/2 PGDM (n toroidal mode and m poloidal mode) is observed in the discharge 167 800 during the co-NBCD phase. The iota profile evolution measured by motional stark effect diagnostic may indicate the iota profile up-shift caused by the co-NBCD can induce a non-resonant transition of the rational surface 1/2 before the mode stabilization. The evolution of the iota profile and continuum gaps in the discharge 167 805 during the ctr-NBCD phase leads to the stabilization of the AE, caused by the narrowing of the continuum gap as the iota profile down-shift. Opposite stability trends are identified for PGDM and AE stability with respect to the thermal plasma density. A larger thermal plasma density (larger thermal β) further enhances PGDM although the continuum gaps are narrower leading to configurations with stable AEs. The linear stability of AEs is analyzed using the gyro-fluid FAR3d code to reproduce the AE stability trends observed in the experiments with respect to the NBCD and thermal plasma density. The analysis of hypothetical scenarios dedicated to study different NBI operational regimes with respect to EP energy, and β and radial density profiles indicate off-axis NBI operation shows a higher EP β threshold to destabilize AEs compared to on-axis configuration. This is explained by the presence of a TAE gap in the inner plasma region, easily destabilized by an on-axis NBI injection. The control of the NBCD and thermal plasma in the discharge 167 800 shows a transitory stabilization of PGDM and AEs, as well as an improved discharge performance identified by an increment of the neutron fluxes.

Varela, Jacobo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of the HAE activity in the TJ-II stellarator using a Landau closure model

The aim of this study is to analyze the stability of helical Alfvén eigenmodes (HAEs) in TJ-II discharges and the stabilizing effect of the energetic particles generated by the neutral beam injector (NBI) on pressure gradient-driven modes (PGDMs). HAE and PGDM stability is studied using the linear version of the gyro-fluid code FAR3d and the continuous structure by the STELLGAP code. First, Alfvén eigenmode (AE) and PGDM activity observed in the experiments is reproduced by the simulations, identifying unstable m/n = 4/7 − 2/3 and 7/12 − 5/8 HAEs triggered around ρ = 0.66 showing a frequency of 209 and 204 kHz, respectively, as well as 5/3 PGDM. Next, a parametric study is performed with respect to the thermal ion density and iota profile in the middle-outer plasma region to verify the robustness of the simulation results with respect to the uncertainty of experimental profiles. The analysis confirms that experimental uncertainty does not cause large deviations in the simulation results, showing the destabilization of the same HAEs for all the configurations tested. The simulations also indicate the decay of the 5/3 PGDM growth rate as the energetic particle (EP) population in the plasma increases, consistent with the experiment. Stability analysis of the n = 3, 7, 11, n = 5, 9, 13, n = 6, 10, 14, and n = 8, 12 helical families is performed with respect to the NBI operational regime for different EP energies, β as well as deposition profiles. The most unstable configuration is the radially localized on-axis NBI operation (stiff EP density profile gradients nearby the magnetic axis). Using the simulation model that reproduces the observed Alfvén activity, we extend the study to analyze NBI performance within a theoretical framework. It shows that increasing NBI voltage (which raises EP energy) leads to a degradation in NBI performance for a given power (related to EP β and their density). To achieve better NBI operation, higher voltage must be balanced with lower injection power, ensuring stable AEs while keeping the same EP β.

Plasma confinement↗

DOE OSTI2026

Validation of the GFS model for gyrokinetic stability of NSTX pedestal data

This study presents a large database validation of the gyro fluid system (GFS) model for linear gyrokinetic stability for high-mode (H-mode) edge transport barrier conditions in the national spherical torus experiment (NSTX) tokamak. The database of linear stability calculations with the CGYRO gyrokinetic code was produced using plasma profile measurements from NSTX discharges to identify kinetic ballooning modes (KBM), trapped electron modes (TEM), and micro-tearing modes (MTM) that limit the pressure profile gradient in the H-mode barrier. A novel Bayesian optimization approach determines optimal resolution parameters for GFS specifically for spherical tokamak pedestal conditions. Our results demonstrate that GFS, with optimized resolution, can achieve accurate linear stability analysis in NSTX pedestal conditions for reduced resolution compared to CGYRO. GFS can accurately find the KBM, TEM, and MTM instability branches. Parametric analysis reveals that GFS accuracy in this extreme pedestal parameter range is degraded for low magnetic shear and near the separatrix conditions. These findings establish GFS as a fast linear eigenmode solver for spherical tokamak pedestal gyrokinetic stability and demonstrate a systematic methodology for determining the optimum resolution settings.

Yang, Minglei [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

DOE OSTI2020

Identity of the JET M-mode and the ASDEX Upgrade I-phase phenomena

An H-mode plasma state free of edge-localized mode (ELM), close to the L-H transition with clear density and temperature pedestal has been observed both at the Joint European Torus (JET) and at the ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) tokamaks usually identified by a low frequency (LFO, 1–2 kHz), m = 1, n = 0 oscillation of the magnetics and the modulation of pedestal profiles. The regime at JET is referred to as M-mode while at AUG as intermediate phase or I-phase. This contribution aims at a comparative analysis of these phenomena in terms of the density and temperature pedestal properties, the magnetic oscillations and symmetries. Lithium beam emission spectroscopy (Li-BES) and reflectometer measurements at JET and AUG show that the M-mode and the I-phase modulates the plasma edge density. A high frequency oscillation of the magnetics and the density at the pedestal is also associated with both the M-mode and the I-phase, and its power is modulated with the LFO frequency. The power modulation happens simultaneously in every Mirnov coil signal where it can be detected. The bursts of the magnetic signals and the density at the pedestal region are followed by the flattening of the density profile, and by a radially outward propagating density pulse in the scrape-off layer (SOL). The analysis of the helium line ratio spectroscopy (He-BES) signals at AUG revealed that the electron temperature is modulated in phase with the density, thus the I-phase modulates the pressure profile gradient. Overall, this analysis gave opportunity to compare Li-BES and He-BES density profiles at different locations suggesting a toroidal and poloidal symmetry of the density modulation. The presented results indicate that the regimes, the AUG I-phase and the JET M-mode, exhibit similar characteristics, which leads to the conclusion that the regimes are likely the same.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dependence of the boundary heat flux width on core and edge profiles in Alcator C-Mod

This work presents new evidence that the heat flux width, λ q , in the Alcator C-Mod tokamak scales with the edge electron pressure, as observed in the ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) tokamak, but the scaling with volume-averaged pressure, $\bar{p}$, from the plasma stored energy, is a better predictor of λ q in Alcator C-Mod than the edge electron pressure. These previous studies, which find that λ q decreases with increasing plasma pressure, imply that a high performance core at high pressure will lead to challenging heat and particle exhaust due to very small λ q . This concern has led to our significant enlargement of the C-Mod database with the electron density, temperature, and pressure profile data from the Thomson scattering and electron cyclotron emission diagnostics. Using the C-Mod database augmented with new profile data, we find that λ q decreases with increasing edge electron pressure as ${\lambda }_{q}\propto {p}_{\mathrm{e},95}^{-0.26}$, similar to results from AUG, and showing the strength of cross-machine comparisons. We also find that ${\lambda }_{q}\propto {p}_{\mathrm{e},\mathrm{c}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{r}\mathrm{e}}^{-0.56}$, consistent with the original finding from C-Mod that the heat flux width scales as ${\bar{p}}^{-0.48}$. The scalings of λ q with separatrix pressure and gradient scale length are found to match the AUG results qualitatively. The C-Mod scalings with edge plasma quantities have more scatter than the $\bar{p}$ scaling, and, importantly, show different trends for H-modes relative to L- and I-mode. Furthermore, investigating the source of this discrepancy presents an opportunity for further study that may improve our ability to predict the heat flux width in different confinement scenarios in the pursuit of optimizing core-edge performance in future reactors.

Alcator C-Mod↗

DOE OSTI2024

Generation of shear flows induced by AE / EPM in LHD plasma

The generation of shear flows (SFs) by Alfven Eigenmodes (AEs) and energetic particle modes (EPMs) have important effects on the operation of future nuclear fusion reactors, because SFs regulate the saturation of the AEs/EPMs, the transport of EPs and thermal plasma, as well as the formation of transport barriers among other consequences. The aim of this study is the analysis of SFs generation during the saturation phase of AEs and EPMs in LHD plasma. Experiments performed in the 23rd and 24th LHD experimental campaigns are dedicated to explore the destabilization of AEs/EPMs in discharges with different heating patterns, thermal plasma and magnetic field configurations. In particular, the shots 176490 and 179697 show the destabilization of MHD bursts and energetic-ion-driven resistive interchange modes (EIC), respectively. Charge exchange spectroscopy measurements in both discharges indicate that the generation of SFs by AE/EPM is uncorrelated with the perturbation induced by the neutral beam injector (NBI). Nonlinear simulations performed using the gyro-fluid code FAR3d show the generation of zonal structures, especially SFs, induced during the saturation phase of Toroidal Alfven Eigenmodes (TAEs) triggered in the MHD burst as well as by the 1/1 EIC in the bursting phase. The simulations indicate that SFs are caused by the radial electric fields powered by energy transfers from the unstable AE/EPM towards the thermal plasma. The strongest SFs are measured during the EIC bursting phase once the 1/1 EPM overlaps with nearby resonances at the plasma periphery. Likewise, the largest SFs during the MHD burst are observed once TAEs radially overlap in the inner-middle plasma region.

AE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Competing mechanisms at vibrated interfaces of density-contrast fluids

Fluid-fluid interfacial instability and subsequent fluid mixing are ubiquitous in nature and engineering. The hydrodynamic instability of fluid interfaces has long centered on the pressure gradient-driven long-wavelength Rayleigh-Taylor instability and the resonance-induced short-wavelength Faraday instability. However, neither instability alone can explain the dynamics when both mechanisms are present. We identify a previously unseen multi-modal instability emerging from their coexistence. When the denser fluid is polydimethylsiloxane, the mixed region at a high density contrast (Atwood number = 0.9) spans a vibration amplitude range approximately twice the gravitational acceleration. Using Floquet stability analysis, we show how vibrations govern transitions between the RT and Faraday instabilities, leading to contention between these instabilities rather than resonant enhancement. Here, the initial transient growth is represented by the exponential modal growth of the most unstable Floquet exponent, along with its accompanying periodic behavior. Direct numerical simulations validate these findings and track interface breakup into the multiscale and nonlinear regimes. Specifically, we show that growing RT modes nonlinearly suppresses Faraday responses even when the initial growth rate of the Faraday instability is 3.63 times that of RT, so a bidirectional competition hinders their sustained coexistence.

Direct numerical simulations↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial and temporal trends and variabilities of hailstones in the United States Northern Great Plains and their possible attributions

Following on our study of hail for the Southern Great Plains (SGP), we investigated the spatial and temporal hail trends and variabilities for the Northern Great Plains (NGP) and the contributing factors for summer seasons (June–August) over 2004–2016 using two independent hail datasets. Both severe hail (1 < diameter = 2 inches) and significant severe hail (diameter > 2 inches) were examined and similar results were obtained. The hailstones in the NGP demonstrate a large interannual variability, with an overall increasing trend over 2004–2016. Spatially, the positive trend is mainly located in the western part of South Dakota and North Dakota. We find the three major dynamical factors that most likely contribute to the hail interannual variability in the NGP are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), and low-level jet (LLJ). With a thermodynamical variable integrated water vapor transport (IVT) that is strongly controlled by LLJ, the four factors can explain 76% of the hail interannual variability from the hail reports based on the multivariate linear regression. Hail occurrences are 73% higher during the cold phase of ENSO (La Nin~a) than the warm phase of ENSO (El Nin~o). When the NASH has a larger northwestward expansion or stronger intensity, more hail occurs over the NGP, because the increases of latitudinal gradient of pressure leads to a stronger LLJ. Interestingly, the important factors impacting hail interannual variability over the NGP are quite different from those for the SGP, except ENSO.

Jeong, Jong-Hoon↗

DOE OSTI2021

Re-calibration of PBX9501 SURF model

PBX 9501 is a plastic bonded explosive composed of 95 wt % HMX and a binder; see [Gibbs and Popolato, 1980, pp. 109–119]. SURF is a reactive burn model for shock initiation and propagation of detonation waves. It has previously been calibrated for PBX 9501. Here the SURF model is recalibrated for PBX 9501; specifically, lot 730-010 at ρ = 1.837 g/cc 3 . The new calibration uses the Davis reactants and products EOS calibrated for the AWSD model [Aslam et al., 2020]. The burn rate in the shock initiation regime is fit to the Pop plot from 5 embedded gauge shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) experiments from [Gustavsen et al., 1999, see fig 12 and table 5]. In the propagation regime, the burn rate is fit to curvature effect data (detonation speed as function of front curvature); see [Aslam, 2007]. Also the burn parameters are adjusted to fit the gap-stick experiment [Hill et al., 2018]. Simulating the detonation wave speed in this experiment requires a model that is accurate for initiation with complex shock loading; in particular, a pressure decreasing gradient behind a curved lead shock. This is more difficult than calibrating to the standard SDT experiments which are 1-D and driven by a sustained shock. Simulations of the gap-stick experiment for PBX 9501 with the SURF model will be discussed in a subsequent report.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗