Assessment of Occupation Radiation Exposure during Maintenance in ITER Upper Ports
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Harb, Moataz [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000200379087)↗
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TEAMER: Biofouling Analysis for Wave Energy Piston Design - Load Cell Data
Biofouling and corrosion are a major concern for all ocean-deployed components, especially when mechanical motion is involved. Triton has developed the concept of a biofouling mitigation seal as part of the piston sealing assembly for the Triton Wave Energy Converter (TSI-WEC). This mitigation seal has the purpose of preventing the formation of a biofilm on the inside of the piston cylinder. It is hypothesized that the prevention of a biofilm will reduce the amount of macro-biofouling that can occur in the piston assembly. The mitigation seal can also reduce the wear on the main dynamic seal, helping to maintain smooth operation and water-tightness. The cylinder is made from a thermoset composite epoxy, which is resistant to corrosion. However, no studies have researched the material's performance with biofouling. Triton placed two prototype Power Take-Off (PTO) assemblies in a PNNL biofouling tank, one with a biofouling mitigation seal and one without, allowing for an evaluation of seal effectiveness at the prevention of biofouling. In actual WEC operation, wave action would react against the piston, which would drive the linear actuator and electric generator, providing electrical power. In the test setup, this was reversed; a linear actuator was powered to drive the piston in a consistent motion within the cylinder. There are two assemblies: one has a biofouling mitigation seal, the other (control) does not. The following data encompasses a 4 month test period, with load cells being used to monitor piston friction force. Results from this testing will be used to improve seal design and material selection, mitigating risk of premature failure during open water testing and evaluation. This project is part of the TEAMER RFTS 3 (request for technical support) program.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Predicting Cement-Sheath Integrity with Consideration of Initial State of Stress and Thermoporoelastic Effects
In conventional wellbore-integrity analysis, the cement sheath’s initial state of stress and transient thermoporoelastic effects are often neglected. However, the initial state of stress is prerequisite information for accurately predicting the safe operating conditions that prevent a cemented well from being damaged. In addition, transient thermoporoelastic effects can have a profound effect on when damage will occur. Here in this paper, we propose a model that includes these effects to predict the safe operating pressures and temperatures that will prevent cement-sheath failure. For the initial state of stress, we proposed an empirical model using measurements. Subsequent stress changes are evaluated by a fully coupled transient thermoporoelastic model to analyze the mechanical behavior of the cement sheath. We predict the safe operating envelope (SOE) for shear, tensile, and debonding cement-sheath failures caused by pressure and temperature perturbations after the cement sets. Our model predicts that pore pressure is a key factor for cement failure, especially for rapid temperature changes. If the formation is low permeability, the transient pore pressures are amplified, causing the risk of damage to increase. Compared with conventional thermoelastic models, the thermoporoelastic model predicts a smaller SOE when heating the internal casing fluid and a larger envelope when cooling the internal casing fluid. Finally, the heating rate was considered with respect to field applications. The heating rate was also considered, and slower heating/cooling rates can prevent damage to the cement sheath. Finally, the thermoporoelastic model was applied to explain several laboratory and field experiments and achieved good matches.
02 PETROLEUM↗
Case Studies of the Economic Impacts of Power Interruptions and Damage to Electricity System Infrastructure from Extreme Events
The risks of long-duration, widespread interruptions (LDWIs) in electrical power are a concern of U.S. regulators, the electric power industry, and stakeholders. Those responsible for making decisions about increasingly costly investments to prevent such interruptions and to facilitate rapid recovery when they do occur need relevant information on which to base those decisions. Although a number of studies have examined the physical and engineering impacts of extreme weather and other precipitating events on the bulk power system, decision makers evaluating investments in preventive strategies need information on the costs of past power interruptions and the benefits of preventing them in the future. This paper contributes to addressing this need by offering six case studies that detail the economics, at the level of the utility service territory, of power interruptions caused by extreme weather and lasting from a few days to several weeks. These intermediate-duration interruptions have been, and will continue to be, the most common type of major electric power disruption. They are longer than the short-term disruptions addressed in utility reliability planning, but not as long or widespread geographically as the national-scale interruptions with durations of many weeks, months, or longer that have been examined in some recent studies.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Hydro-Code Implementation and Testing of a Kinetic Phase Transition Framework
In this report we describe the Kinetic Phase Transition (KPT) framework that has been worked out over the last 10 years (from around 2014) and the implementation of it into three different codes, the one-dimensional hydro- LASLO and the three-dimensional magneto-hydro- ALEGRA, Sandia codes, via subroutines in the LAMBDA Equations of State and constitutive models package, and Flag, an arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian multiphysics code developed within the Lagrangian Applications project (LAP) at LANL. We discuss the introduction of phase mass (and/or volume) fractions that are needed in a code for it to be ‘phase aware’, that is, not only the thermodynamic state is known in each point but also the mixture of the materials’ phases in that point. Further we point to the need of a full Equations of State for each phase in a material to achieve phase awareness and we review the equilibrium phase model, where a phase mixture is at its lowest Gibbs free energy state, to make this point clear. Contrasting the kinetic phase transition to this equilibrium model seamlessly introduce us to the KPT framework that is subsequently thoroughly discussed. While the determination of the total state and the states and mass fractions of phases in each point is a problem that can borrow many of its numerical details from Eulerian codes and mixture of materials (not phases), the update of mass fractions with time in a KPT framework needs a new set of considerations. General for any update model is that we need to prevent mass fractions from becoming unphysical (negative or their sum to be larger than one). We have solved this problem by implementing a subdivision of the hydro time step that prevents the phase from being fully present to not present at all in one subdivided time step by limiting the size of the subdivided time step. This scheme also corrects numerical problems from abrupt changes in parameter values, the so called Gibbs phenomena, that gives rise to slushing between phases in the KPT framework. Interspersed throughout the report are discussions on different thermodynamics considerations. EOS validity windows, limitations on the EOS phase space, are needed for the KPT framework and are discussed separately and exemplified. The KPT framework described in this report has been verified by code comparison, but validation is still an active area of research. There is room for improvement in the update model, both in the model for determination of rates and in how to prevent the mass fractions from becoming unphysical. In addition, the parameters in the KPT update model and the placement of the phase boundary in the EOS phase space, and interactions with other constitutive models, are closely related and interfering with each other. One possible way forward is to simultaneously develop KPT parameters, EOS, and constitutive models for each material.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Methods for safely sharing dual-use genetic data
Background: Some genetic data has dual-use potential. Sharing pathogen data has shown tremendous value. For example therapeutic development and lineage tracking during the COVID pandemic. This data sharing is complicated by the fact that these data have the potential to be used for harm. The genome sequence of a pathogen can be used to enable malicious genetic engineering approaches or to recreate the pathogen from synthetic DNA. Standard data security methods can be applied to genetic data, but when data is shared between institutions, ensuring appropriate security can be difficult. Sensitive data that is shared internationally among a wide array of institutions can be especially difficult to control. Methods for securely storing and sharing genetic data with potential for dual-use are needed to mitigate this potential harm.Results: Here we propose new methods that allow genetic data to be shared in a data format that prevents a nefarious actor from accessing sensitive aspects of the data. Our methods obfuscate raw sequence data by pooling reads from different samples. This approach can ensure that data is secure while stored and during electronic transfer. We demonstrate that by pooling raw sequence data from multiple samples of the same organism, the ability to fully reconstruct any individual sample is prevented. In the pooled data, most genomic information remains, but reads or mutations cannot be directly attributed to any individual sample. To further restrict access to information, regions of a genome can be removed from the reads.Conclusion: Our methods obscure genomic information within raw sequence reads. This method can allow genetic data to be stored and shared while preventing a nefarious actor from being able to perfectly reconstruct an organism. Broad-scale sequence information remains, while fine scale details about specific samples are difficult or impossible to reconstruct. Our software is available at https://github.com/Geneinfosec-Inc/ReadMixer.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Platinum on High-Entropy Aluminate Spinels as Thermally Stable CO Oxidation Catalysts
Thermal degradation is a leading cause of automotive catalyst deactivation. Because high-entropy oxides are uniquely stabilized at high temperatures via an increase in configurational entropy, these materials may offer new mechanisms for preventing the thermal deactivation of precious metal catalysts. In this work, we evaluated platinum loaded on simple and high-entropy aluminate spinels (MAl 2 O 4 , where M = Co, Cu, Mg, Ni, or mixtures thereof) in carbon monoxide oxidation before and after aging at 800 °C. Pt supported on all simple spinels showed significant deactivation after thermal aging compared to the fresh samples, with T 90 increasing by at least 60 °C. However, Pt on high-entropy spinels had nearly the same or better activity after aging, with T 90 increasing by only 6 °C at most. During aging and reduction, copper exsolved from the spinel supports and alloyed with platinum. This interaction promoted low temperature oxidation activity, presumably through weakened CO binding, but did not prevent deactivation. On the other hand, Co, Mg, and Ni constituents promoted stronger CO bonding, as evidenced by apparent negative order kinetics and poor activity at low temperatures. High-entropy spinels, containing a variety of active metals, displayed synergetic reactant adsorption capacity and cooperative effects with supported platinum particles, which collectively prevented thermal deactivation.
CO oxidation↗
Evaluation of Hydrogen Gettering Rates Correlated to Surface Composition and Texture of Nickel-Plated Zircaloy Getters of Different Heat Treatment Procedures
Coatings of metal specimens are known to have an impact on hydrogen gettering (hydrogen absorption). The coating can have one or more functions, such as enhancing gettering, preventing gettering and/or preventing oxidation of the metal substrate. It is known that contaminants and surface texture can impact hydrogen gettering/absorption performance, but has not previously been thoroughly explored. This study evaluated the role of different post-plating heat treatments of nickel-plated zircaloy-4 getters (NPGs) and the role of the heat treatments on gettering rates, surface composition and texture. Nickel plating is applied to prevent oxidation of the Zircaloy-4 surface and also enhances gettering. The nickel plating must be heat treated before desirable gettering can occur. Our NPG getters with historically known satisfying performance were pre-heat treated in air followed by activation heat treatment in a vacuum at a higher temperature. In this study, we were interested in finding out if both heat treatment steps were necessary to obtain a desirable gettering performance, or if one step could be omitted. XPS analysis showed that if the nickel surface is not heat treated before bonding the nickel to the zirconium in the activation step, there will be carbon contaminants on the surface, which significantly reduces gettering. We studied the texture of Zircaloy-4 using SEM/EBSD to compare NPGs with both heat treatment steps with NPGs that had no post-plating heat treatment to learn if the degree of cold work could be impacted by the heat treatment steps. We did not observe any differences in texture between them. We measured gettering rates of both pretreated and activated NPGs and NPGs that had been activated without first being pre-heat treated. We found that the NPGs without the first post-plating heating step had up to a seven times slower gettering rate and obtained higher plateau pressures due to the contaminated surface. Thus, the pre-heat treatment in air before activation is necessary to avoid slower gettering rates and higher plateau pressures.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Tank Bottom Corrosion Induced by Anode-Generated Oxygen
Cathodic protection system using aclose coupled mixed metal oxide (MMO) anode is the corrosion prevention technique for soil-side of the aboveground storage tank (AST) bottoms. MMO anodes generate oxygen at its surfacesdue to water electrolysis at polarized potentials above a threshold; oxygen from the MMO anodes can depolarize the bottoms’polarized potentials. Further, when the tank bottom plate loses contact with the sand pad due to flexing, oxygen can accumulate in the void space and accelerate corrosion. This paper provides information on preventive measures that can be adopted to prevent oxygen concentration corrosion of the AST soil-side bottoms
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Domestic Extremism: How to Counter Threats Posed to Critical Assets
Although facilities with sensitive information, hazardous materials, critical infrastructure, or other sensitive items have security measures in place to protect those critical assets, the threat of domestic extremism (DE) has challenged those security measures in new ways. The project described in this brief report used focus groups to identify best practices, tools, or techniques relevant to preventing or countering DE and sought to identify gaps in security measures. Five focus groups with twenty-two subject matter experts from government, healthcare, and other stakeholder groups were conducted to understand how organizations protect critical assets against the DE threat. The results of the focus groups underscore the importance of organizational culture, codes of conduct, and behavior observation programs in prevention of DE events. In addition, results emphasized the value of multidisciplinary teams, employee assistance programs, and regular threat assessment as resources when responding to DE incidents. However, monitoring of social media and lack of adequate resources remain challenges when attempting to prevent or counter the DE threat.
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
Modular anti-rotation drilling systems and methods
A modular anti-rotation device for preventing rotation with respect to the central axis of a drilling tool in a borehole and for producing a notch in a borehole surface. The anti-rotation device includes an upper fixture portion and a lower fixture portion in axial alignment. The upper fixture portion and the lower fixture portion are connected by yoke assemblies. Each yoke assembly is connected to the fixture portion and fixture portion at one end, and forming an articulated joint of the upper yoke assembly and the lower yoke assembly at a distal end opposite the first end. A roller is connected at each joint, connecting the upper and lower yoke assemblies. The rollers engage vertically with a borehole surface, the rollers travelling axially, as a drill shaft penetrates into the borehole, the rollers simultaneously preventing radial movement of the anti-rotation device and prevent rotation with respect to the central axis of the borehole.
Su, Jiann-Cherng↗
Development, Characterization, and Testing of Solid-State Electrolytes for Batteries
Traditional liquid electrolytes used in lithium (Li) metal batteries (LMBs) have severe safety issues, poor power density, as well as thermal and electrochemical instability that prevents their scaling to newer applications, such as electric vehicles. Using sulfide-based solid-state electrolytes (SSEs) is a viable method to address many of the issues that plague LMBs. However, the key issue preventing the expansion of sulfide-based SSEs is an interplay between poor interfacial stability with the electrodes and massive external stack pressure required to maintain electrode-electrolyte contact. The need for extensive pressure requires large system-level (i.e., battery pack used in an electric vehicle) housing that causes a disconnect between performance at a smaller scale and actual application. Secondary prevention to sulfide-based SSE adoption are difficulties in manufacturing, as toxic deterioration occurs when these materials are exposed to humidity, as well as drastic reduction in SSE performance at low temperature. This work hypothesizes that unique interfacial designs of electrodes and the modification of the sulfide-based SSE will enable reduction of necessary external cell pressure, and therefore support the design of practical LMBs. This will be done through collaboration within Idaho National Laboratory (INL), where manufacturing practices will be parameterized to produce low defect, low porosity SSEs with slight modifications. Next, artificial interfaces will be produced on electrodes to observe the conformality and mass transport properties between the modified SSE and pre-treated anode. External pressure on Li-metal cells will also be parameterized to reduce interfacial impedance while a reduction in the pressure will allot reasonable housing design for larger scale applications. Focus on novelty in this work occurs by modifications to the solid-solid interfaces between electrolyte and electrode, done through doping of the electrolyte and production of artificial interfaces on the Li-metal anode. The modifications at these interfaces, in addition to modified external pressure could identify and address the poor interfacial impedance that hinders high performance SSEs. Fundamental understanding on how to reduce the key hindrances of all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs) will support the advancement for larger scale production and performance, of which will be held in perspective for future works. Beyond battery development, the knowledge gained from process control and defect analysis is applicable to other ceramic systems, such as nuclear fuel coatings and high temperature electrolyzers.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Development, Characterization, and Testing of Solid-State Electrolytes for Batteries
Traditional liquid electrolytes used in lithium (Li) metal batteries (LMBs) have severe safety issues, poor power density, as well as thermal and electrochemical instability that prevents their scaling to newer applications, such as electric vehicles. Using sulfide-based solid-state electrolytes (SSEs) is a viable method to address many of the issues that plague LMBs. However, the key issue preventing the expansion of sulfide-based SSEs is an interplay between poor interfacial stability with the electrodes and massive external stack pressure required to maintain electrode-electrolyte contact. The need for extensive pressure requires large system-level (i.e., battery pack used in an electric vehicle) housing that causes a disconnect between performance at a smaller scale and actual application. Secondary prevention to sulfide-based SSE adoption are difficulties in manufacturing, as toxic deterioration occurs when these materials are exposed to humidity, as well as drastic reduction in SSE performance at low temperature. This work hypothesizes that unique interfacial designs of electrodes and the modification of the sulfide-based SSE will enable reduction of necessary external cell pressure, and therefore support the design of practical LMBs. This will be done through collaboration within Idaho National Laboratory (INL), where manufacturing practices will be parameterized to produce low defect, low porosity SSEs with slight modifications. Next, artificial interfaces will be produced on electrodes to observe the conformality and mass transport properties between the modified SSE and pre-treated anode. External pressure on Li-metal cells will also be parameterized to reduce interfacial impedance while a reduction in the pressure will allot reasonable housing design for larger scale applications. Focus on novelty in this work occurs by modifications to the solid-solid interfaces between electrolyte and electrode, done through doping of the electrolyte and production of artificial interfaces on the Li-metal anode. The modifications at these interfaces, in addition to modified external pressure could identify and address the poor interfacial impedance that hinders high performance SSEs. Fundamental understanding on how to reduce the key hindrances of all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs) will support the advancement for larger scale production and performance, of which will be held in perspective for future works. Beyond battery development, the knowledge gained from process control and defect analysis is applicable to other ceramic systems, such as nuclear fuel coatings and high temperature electrolyzers.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Ammonia Permeation Through Inorganic Membranes
Moisture probes are used in the tritium facility to measure the moisture content of the gas stream. When tritium reacts with nitrogen to form ammonia, the ammonia gas damages the sensitive moisture probe. The gas stream tested during this experiment for moisture probe protection is composed of nitrogen and argon gas in conjunction with ammonia and water vapor. The gas stream is filtered through an inorganic membrane due to the high reactivity of tritium and a residual gas analyzer (RGA) is used to measure the ammonia and water vapor in the gas stream, as well as the permeability of nitrogen and argon through the inorganic membranes. The membranes tested were boron nitride and silver. The permeability was compared for each membrane at different pressures and flow rates. Fourier-transformed infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) was used to compare the membranes before and after ammonia permeation. Ammonia gas is a byproduct formed from tritium gas reacting with nitrogen in the gas stream, similar to the Haber Process which occurs when hydrogen reacts with nitrogen [2]. The corrosive nature of ammonia damages metals and sensitive instruments such as moisture probes. Moisture probes are essential in various gas and liquid processes for measuring the moisture content of a gas. Membrane research has found that graphene oxide membranes successfully uptake ammonia from the gas stream at a humidity of approximately 30% at which point the pores pin closed, preventing gas permeation. Further research is being conducted to find an inorganic membrane that will prevent ammonia permeation thus circumventing damage to the sensitive moisture probe. The permeation measurements for argon and nitrogen gas and water and ammonia vapor were measured at various pressures of 800, 1000, 1200, 1500, 1800, and 2000 torr. The permeability average (PA) was calculated for each filter using a Barrer calculation. The average permeations for each filter were then compared. The gas composition was measured using the RGA Nitrogen was permeated through the membranes after ammonia permeation and a FT-IR spectrum was obtained. Boron Nitride: As the nitrogen pressure increased, the permeability of the membrane decreased from 800-1200 torr and remained relatively unchanged from 1200-2000 torr. The membrane exhibited a slight decrease in argon permeability from 800-1200 torr and a slight increase from 1500-2000 torr. The boron nitride membrane when permeated with ammonia and nitrogen prevented less ammonia permeation compared to the blank filter. The boron nitride filter demonstrated a decrease in permeability after ammonia permeation. Silver Membrane: When permeated with nitrogen alone, the membrane permeability decreased from 800 torr to 1200 torr. The permeability of the membrane showed little difference as pressure increased from 1200 torr. When permeated with argon, the same phenomenon occurred but on a much smaller scale. When compared to the blank and the boron nitride membranes the silver membrane exhibited significantly lower permeability. This may be in part due to the coating on the silver membrane and differences in pore size of the membranes. During permeation with ammonium hydroxide vapor and nitrogen, the partial pressure of the ammonia increased as compared to the blank membrane. The permeability before and after permeation with ammonia and nitrogen were compared. Permeability values suggested that after being permeated with the ammonia that the permeability for lower pressures increased slightly. There was no significant change in the FT-IR spectrums before and after permeation. Future work: Continue testing various inorganic membranes for ammonia permeation. Further research chemical separation of ammonia from the gas stream, which may prove difficult due to the high reactivity of tritium.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Molten Salt Reactor Safety Assessment - Three Approaches to A Common Objective
Safety adequacy assessment is central to nuclear power plant (NPP) licensing. Either NPP accident mitigation or prevention can result in adequate safety. Accident prevention, along with the the prevention of accident escalation, can be evaluated using either deterministic or probabilistic methods. Acceptable means to develop principal design criteria (PDCs) via probabilistic methods are provided in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.233 while advanced reactor design criteria are provided in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.232 (RG 1.232). Accident mitigation-based regulatory guidance for non-power reactors is provided in NUREG 1537. While RG 1.232 included class specific guidance for both sodium-cooled fast reactors and modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, it did not provide molten salt reactor (MSR) class specific guidance. Class specific design criteria more closely align with reactors in their class so will require less effort to employ to develop design specific PDCs. The American Nuclear Society has recently released a liquid-fueled MSR design safety standard (ANSI/ANS-20.2-2023) that provides class specific design criteria.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
AI-based Detection and Defense Against Cyberattacks in Distributed Energy Resources
This study will provide comprehensive artificial intelligence (AI)-based solution tools for network security, malware prevention, and sensor data anomaly detection for distributed energy resource (DER) research, development, and demonstration. DER technologies are energy systems (e.g., solar panels, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) that are often connected to the internet and thus vulnerable to cyberattacks. Cybersecurity should be of primary concern for DERs, which is why we propose an integrated multi-layer cyber-defense system for DERs. This system encompasses risk assessments, network security, malware prevention, and detection of anomalies in the sensor data. Implementation of a comprehensive risk assessment with an overview of the model architecture should be the primary step, and should include the potential impact of experiencing, at a given time, one or more cyberattacks on the system. The second step is to ensure that the network security includes firewalls, intrusion detection, and malware prevention. The third step is to provide solution tools that enable sensor data anomaly detection for DERs. By incorporating these considerations into DER research, development, and demonstration, organizations can help ensure the safety and security of their systems and protect against potential cyberattacks.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
VA Community Determinants of Health Data Curation Documentation FY26-Q2
The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) places the health and well-being of our nation’s veterans as its top priority. VA is dedicated to offering timely access to high-quality, evidence-based mental health care that meets the needs of veterans and supports their reintegration into society. One of our core missions is to prevent suicide among veterans through innovative approaches and resources. With funding from the VA Office of Mental Health and Suicide Prevention (OMHSP), the Community Determinants of Health (EDH) Data project has developed innovative datasets associated with specific health outcomes, a methodology for transforming spatiotemporal data from one spatial reference (e.g., a 1 km grid) to another (e.g., U.S. Census Tracts), and capabilities for modeling health outcomes. These datasets represent an enhancement of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), addressing key gaps by introducing finer spatial resolution (Census Tract) and additional geographical covariates into existing data. The curation and standardization of these datasets is a complex task since they often originate from various sources and are measured at different spatial and temporal resolutions. For example, U.S. Census data products typically use census blocks, block groups, or counties, while data like weather data are available on 1 km grids. Some economic data may only be available at the ZIP code level. In this context, ‘standardized’ means that all datasets share the same spatial extent (e.g., U.S. Census Tract and/or County), and ‘curated’ implies a repeatable process with data provenance and the use of appropriate methodologies for covariate conversion. The Community Determinants of Health datasets draw from multiple sources, resulting in variables with varying degrees of availability, patterns of missing data, and methodological considerations across different sources, geographies, and years.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Impact of changes in protective behaviors and out-of-household activities by age on COVID-19 transmission and hospitalization in Chicago, Illinois
Even with an efficacious vaccine, protective behaviors (social distancing, masking) are essential for preventing COVID-19 transmission and could become even more important if current or future variants evade immunity from vaccines or prior infection. Here we created an agent-based model representing the Chicago population and conducted experiments to determine the effects of varying adult out-of-household activities (OOHA), school reopening, and protective behaviors across age groups on COVID-19 transmission and hospitalizations. From September-November 2020, decreasing adult protective behaviors and increasing adult OOHA both substantially impacted COVID-19 outcomes; school reopening had relatively little impact when adult protective behaviors and OOHA were maintained. As of November 1, 2020, a 50% reduction in young adult (age 18-40) protective behaviors resulted in increased latent infection prevalence per 100,000 from 15.93 (IQR 6.18, 36.23) to 40.06 (IQR 14.65, 85.21)and 19.87 (IQR 6.83, 46.83) to 47.74 (IQR 18.89, 118.77) with 15% and 45% school reopening. Increasing adult (age ≥18) OOHA from 65% to 80% of pre-pandemic levels resulted in increased latent infection prevalence per 100,000 from 35.18 (IQR 13.59, 75.00) to 69.84 (IQR 33.27, 145.89) and 38.17 (IQR 15.84, 91.16) to 80.02 (IQR 30.91, 186.63) with 15% and 45% school reopening. Similar patterns were observed for hospitalizations. In areas without widespread vaccination coverage, interventions to maintain adherence to protective behaviors, particularly among younger adults and in out-of-household settings, remain a priority for preventing COVID-19 transmission.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗