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NASA NTRS1995

Design Protocols and Analytical Strategies that Incorporate Structural Reliability Models

The general goal of this project is to establish design protocols that enable the engineer to analyze and predict certain types of behavior in ceramic composites. Sections of the final report addresses the following: Description of the Problem that Motivated the Technology Development, Description of the New Technology that was Developed, Unique and Novel Features of the Technology and Results/Benefits of Application (year by year accomplishments), and Utilization of New Technology in Non-Aerospace Applications. Activities for this reporting period included the development of a design analysis as part of a cooperative agreement with general Electric Aircraft Engines. The effort focused on modifying the Toughened Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (TCARES) algorithm for use in the design of engine components fabricated from NiAl. Other activities related to the development of an ASTM standard practice for estimating Weibull parameters. The standard focuses on the evaluation and reporting of uniaxial strength data, and the estimation of probability distribution parameters for ceramics which fail in a brittle fashion.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1998

On Estimating Provenances of Lunar Highland Materials

That even relatively small impacts can spread material across the face of the Moon is evident from the rays of Tycho. Tycho ejecta triggered the landslide that produced the light mantle deposit at Apollo 17 and perhaps excavated the Central Valley craters there. Basin-sized impacts appear to follow the same scaling laws as smaller impacts, as indicated by the satisfaction of a geophysical model. These giant impacts rearranged huge amounts of premare material, complicating the determination of provenance of materials collected from the highlands. We have developed a model to estimate the probability that material at a particular location might derive from a given basin or large crater. This model is based on crater scaling laws, and effects of secondary cratering. Because it accounts for the volume of primary ejecta from the basin-forming transient craters and the excavating and mixing effects of these ejecta with the substrate onto which they fall, it gives much thicker deposits than an early work. Our modeling takes into account the distribution of sizes of primary ejecta fragments (PriFrags) to obtain the probability at a given site for a deposit of a particular thickness and with a fraction of PriFrags.

Haskin, Larry A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Impact Threat and Public Perception

Recent popular movies have raised public consciousness of the very real possibility of a comet or asteroid collision with the Earth, and a news report last year implying that asteroid 1997 XF11 had a distinct chance of hitting the Earth in the year 2028 further caught the public's eye. The report of possible impact was withdrawn the very next day, and the public perceived either that astronomers had made mistaken calculations, or that the pre-discovery observations found that day had been responsible for the revised prediction. But in fact, the original report of the possibility of impact in 2028 was simply a premature assessment. The XF11 affair has demonstrated the need for clarity and precision in public communications dealing with the possibility of Earth impact, as well as the importance of peer review before results are released to the press. This year, another potentially hazardous asteroid, 1999 AN10, has made the news, and this time there is indeed a remote chance of collision. Although impact is not possible during the asteroid's primary close approach in 2027, the uncertainties allow for a remarkably close passage, and embedded within the encounter's uncertainty region are many narrow "keyholes" which could bring the asteroid back for a close approach in a later year. Three keyholes have been identified which could perturb the asteroid onto trajectories that collide with the Earth in the years 2044, 2046, or 2039. At the time of this writing, the estimated impact probability for 1999 AN10 is on the order of 1 in 500,000, larger than for any other known object, but still significantly less than the probability of an undiscovered asteroid of equivalent size striking the Earth before 2044. Additional astrometric measurements of 1999 AN10 will likely drive its impact probability down to near-zero, but this may not happen for years, testing the public's reaction to a lingering remote possibility of impact. A side effect of the increasing discovery rate for Near Earth objects will be a growing number of cases like 1999 ANIO.

Chodas, Paul W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Modeling, Analyzing, and Mitigating Dissonance Between Alerting Systems

Alerting systems are becoming pervasive in process operations, which may result in the potential for dissonance or conflict in information from different alerting systems that suggests different threat levels and/or actions to resolve hazards. Little is currently available to help in predicting or solving the dissonance problem. This thesis presents a methodology to model and analyze dissonance between alerting systems, providing both a theoretical foundation for understanding dissonance and a practical basis from which specific problems can be addressed. A state-space representation of multiple alerting system operation is generalized that can be tailored across a variety of applications. Based on the representation, two major causes of dissonance are identified: logic differences and sensor error. Additionally, several possible types of dissonance are identified. A mathematical analysis method is developed to identify the conditions for dissonance originating from logic differences. A probabilistic analysis methodology is developed to estimate the probability of dissonance originating from sensor error, and to compare the relative contribution to dissonance of sensor error against the contribution from logic differences. A hybrid model, which describes the dynamic behavior of the process with multiple alerting systems, is developed to identify dangerous dissonance space, from which the process can lead to disaster. Methodologies to avoid or mitigate dissonance are outlined. Two examples are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. First, a conceptual In-Trail Spacing example is presented. The methodology is applied to identify the conditions for possible dissonance, to identify relative contribution of logic difference and sensor error, and to identify dangerous dissonance space. Several proposed mitigation methods are demonstrated in this example. In the second example, the methodology is applied to address the dissonance problem between two air traffic alert and avoidance systems: the existing Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) vs. the proposed Airborne Conflict Management system (ACM). Conditions on ACM resolution maneuvers are identified to avoid dynamic dissonance between TCAS and ACM. Also included in this report is an Appendix written by Lee Winder about recent and continuing work on alerting systems design. The application of Markov Decision Process (MDP) theory to complex alerting problems is discussed and illustrated with an abstract example system.

Song, Lixia↗

NASA NTRS2004

Plan-graph Based Heuristics for Conformant Probabilistic Planning

In this paper, we introduce plan-graph based heuristics to solve a variation of the conformant probabilistic planning (CPP) problem. In many real-world problems, it is the case that the sensors are unreliable or take too many resources to provide knowledge about the environment. These domains are better modeled as conformant planning problems. POMDP based techniques are currently the most successful approach for solving CPP but have the limitation of state- space explosion. Recent advances in deterministic and conformant planning have shown that plan-graphs can be used to enhance the performance significantly. We show that this enhancement can also be translated to CPP. We describe our process for developing the plan-graph heuristics and estimating the probability of a partial plan. We compare the performance of our planner PVHPOP when used with different heuristics. We also perform a comparison with a POMDP solver to show over a order of magnitude improvement in performance.

Ramakrishnan, Salesh↗

NASA NTRS2001

Spatial scale of motion segmentation from speed cues

For the accurate perception of multiple, potentially overlapping, surfaces or objects, the visual system must distinguish different local motion vectors and selectively integrate similar motion vectors over space to segment the retinal image properly. We recently showed that large differences in speed are required to yield a percept of motion transparency. In the present study, to investigate the spatial scale of motion segmentation from speed cues alone, we measured the speed-segmentation threshold (the minimum speed difference required for 75% performance accuracy) for 'corrugated' random-dot patterns, i.e. patterns in which dots with two different speeds were alternately placed in adjacent bars of variable width. In a first experiment, we found that, at large bar widths, a smaller speed difference was required to segment and perceive the corrugated pattern of moving dots, while at small bar-widths, a larger speed difference was required to segment the two speeds and perceive two transparent surfaces of moving dots. Both the perceptual and segmentation performance transitions occurred at a bar width of around 0.4 degrees. In a second experiment, speed-segmentation thresholds were found to increase sharply when dots with different speeds were paired within a local pooling area. The critical pairing distance was about 0.2 degrees in the fovea and increased linearly with stimulus eccentricity. However, across the range of eccentricities tested (up to 15 degrees ), the critical pairing distance did not change much and remained close to the receptive field size of neurons within the primate primary visual cortex. In a third experiment, increasing dot density changed the relationship between speed-segmentation thresholds and bar width. Thresholds decreased for large bar widths, but increased for small bar widths. All of these results are well fit by a simple stochastic model, which estimates the probabilities of having identical or different motion vectors within a local pooling area whose size is the same as that of primate V1 neurons. Altogether, these results demonstrate that speed-based segmentation can function well, even at small spatial scales (i.e. high-spatial frequencies of spatial corrugation) and thereby emphasizes the critical role of a local pooling process early in the cortical motion-processing pathway.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

NASA NTRS1999

Observation and Simulations of the Backsplash Effects in High-Energy Gamma-Ray Telescopes Containing a Massive Calorimeter

Beam test and simulation results are presented for a study of the backsplash effects produced in a high-energy gamma-ray detector containing a massive calorimeter. An empirical formula is developed to estimate the probability (per unit area) of backsplash for different calorimeter materials and thicknesses, different incident particle energies, and at different distances from the calorimeter. The results obtained are applied to the design of Anti-Coincidence Detector (ACD) for the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on the Gamma-ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST).

Moiseev, Alexander A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Fire in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model for Policy Impact Analysis

This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farmgate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of managed and unmanaged fires in order to simulate the impact of road paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.

Arima, Eugenio Y.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Investigation of MMOD Impact on STS-115 Shuttle Payload Bay Door Radiator

The Orbiter radiator system consists of eight individual 4.6 m x 3.2 m panels located with four on each payload bay door. Forward panels #1 and #2 are 2.3 cm thick while the aft panels #3 and #4 have a smaller overall thickness of 1.3 cm. The honeycomb radiator panels consist of 0.028 cm thick Aluminum 2024-T81 facesheets and Al5056-H39 cores. The face-sheets are topped with 0.005 in. (0.127 mm) silver-Teflon tape. The radiators are located on the inside of the shuttle payload bay doors, which are closed during ascent and reentry, limiting damage to the on-orbit portion of the mission. Post-flight inspections at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) following the STS-115 mission revealed a large micrometeoroid/orbital debris (MMOD) impact near the hinge line on the #4 starboard payload bay door radiator panel. The features of this impact make it the largest ever recorded on an orbiter payload bay door radiator. The general location of the damage site and the adjacent radiator panels can be seen in Figure 2. Initial measurements of the defect indicated that the hole in the facesheet was 0.108 in. (2.74 mm) in diameter. Figure 3 shows an image of the front side damage. Subsequent observations revealed exit damage on the rear facesheet. Impact damage features on the rear facesheet included a 0.03 in. diameter hole (0.76 mm), a approx.0.05 in. tall bulge (approx.1.3 mm), and a larger approx.0.2 in. tall bulge (approx.5.1 mm) that exhibited a crack over 0.27 in. (6.8 mm) long. A large approx.1 in. (25 mm) diameter region of the honeycomb core was also damaged. Refer to Figure 4 for an image of the backside damage to the panel. No damage was found on thermal blankets or payload bay door structure under the radiator panel. Figure 5 shows the front facesheet with the thermal tape removed. Ultrasound examination indicated a maximum facesheet debond extent of approximately 1 in. (25 mm) from the entry hole. X-ray examinations revealed damage to an estimated 31 honeycomb cells with an extent of 0.85 in. x 1.1 in. (21.6 x 27.9 mm). Pieces of the radiator at and surrounding the impact site were recovered during the repair procedures at KSC. They included the thermal tape, front facesheet, honeycomb core, and rear facesheet. These articles were examined at JSC using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) with an energy dispersive x-ray spectrometer (EDS). Figure 6 shows SEM images of the entry hole in the facesheet. The asymmetric height of the lip may be attributed to projectile shape and impact angle. Numerous instances of a glass-fiber organic matrix composite were observed in the facesheet tape sample. The fibers were approximately 10 micrometers in diameter and variable lengths. EDS analysis indicated a composition of Mg, Ca, Al, Si, and O. Figures 7 and 8 present images of the fiber bundles, which were believed to be circuit board material based on similarity in fiber diameter, orientation, consistency, and composition. A test program was initiated in an attempt to simulate the observed damage to the radiator facesheet and honeycomb. Twelve test shots were performed using projectiles cut from a 1.6 mm thick fiberglass circuit board substrate panel. Results from test HITF07017, shown in figures 9 and 10, correlates with the observed impact features reasonably well. The test was performed at 4.14 km/sec with an impact angle of 45 degrees using a cylindrical projectile with a diameter and length of 1.25 mm. The fiberglass circuit board material had a density of 1.65 g/cu cm, giving a projectile mass of 2.53 mg. An analysis was performed using the Bumper code to estimate the probability of impact to the shuttle from a 1.25 mm diameter particle. Table 1 shows a 1.6% chance (impact odds = 1 in 62) of a 1.25 mm or larger MMOD impact on the radiators of the vehicle during a typical ISS mission. There is a 0.4% chance (impact odds = 1 in 260) that a 1.25 mm or larger MMOD particle would impact the RCC wing leading edge and nose cap during a typical miion. Figure 11 illustrates the vulnerable areas of the wing leading edge reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC), an area of the vehicle that is very sensitive to impact damage. The highlighted red, orange, yellow, and light green areas would be expected to experience critical damage if impacted by an OD particle such as the one that hit the RH4 radiator panel on STS-115.

Hyde, J.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Effect of Surge Current Testing on Reliability of Solid Tantalum Capacitors

Tantalum capacitors manufactured per military specifications are established reliability components and have less than 0.001% of failures per 1000 hours for grades D or S, thus positioning these parts among electronic components with the highest reliability characteristics. Still, failures of tantalum capacitors do happen and when it occurs it might have catastrophic consequences for the system. To reduce this risk, further development of a screening and qualification system with special attention to the possible deficiencies in the existing procedures is necessary. The purpose of this work is evaluation of the effect of surge current stress testing on reliability of the parts at both steady-state and multiple surge current stress conditions. In order to reveal possible degradation and precipitate more failures, various part types were tested and stressed in the range of voltage and temperature conditions exceeding the specified limits. A model to estimate the probability of post-surge current testing-screening failures and measures to improve the effectiveness of the screening process has been suggested.

Teverovsky, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS2010

Characterization of Cloud Water-Content Distribution

The development of realistic cloud parameterizations for climate models requires accurate characterizations of subgrid distributions of thermodynamic variables. To this end, a software tool was developed to characterize cloud water-content distributions in climate-model sub-grid scales. This software characterizes distributions of cloud water content with respect to cloud phase, cloud type, precipitation occurrence, and geo-location using CloudSat radar measurements. It uses a statistical method called maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the probability density function of the cloud water content.

Lee, Seungwon↗

NASA NTRS2013

Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion Guidance Navigation and Control

The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch. We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool ("Critical Factors Tool" or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.

Pressburger, Tom↗

NASA NTRS2014

Constructing the "Best" Reliability Data for the Job

Modern business and technical decisions are based on the results of analyses. When considering assessments using "reliability data", the concern is how long a system will continue to operate as designed. Generally, the results are only as good as the data used. Ideally, a large set of pass/fail tests or observations to estimate the probability of failure of the item under test would produce the best data. However, this is a costly endeavor if used for every analysis and design. Developing specific data is costly and time consuming. Instead, analysts rely on available data to assess reliability. Finding data relevant to the specific use and environment for any project is difficult, if not impossible. Instead, we attempt to develop the "best" or composite analog data to support our assessments. One method used incorporates processes for reviewing existing data sources and identifying the available information based on similar equipment, then using that generic data to derive an analog composite. Dissimilarities in equipment descriptions, environment of intended use, quality and even failure modes impact the "best" data incorporated in an analog composite. Once developed, this composite analog data provides a "better" representation of the reliability of the equipment or component can be used to support early risk or reliability trade studies, or analytical models to establish the predicted reliability data points. Data that is more representative of reality and more project specific would provide more accurate analysis, and hopefully a better final decision.

DeMott, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion GNC

The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch.We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool (Critical Factors Tool or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.

Monte Carlo Simulation↗

NASA NTRS2014

Constructing the Best Reliability Data for the Job

Kleinhammer, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Planetary Protection Trajectory Analysis for the Juno Mission

Juno is an orbiter mission expected to launch in 2011 to Jupiter. Juno's science orbit is a highly eccentric orbit with a period of about 11 days and a nominal duration of one year. Initially, the equatorial crossing near apojove occurs outside Callisto's orbit, but as the mission evolves the apsidal rotation causes this distance to move much closer to Jupiter. This motion could lead to potential impacts with the Galilean satellites as the ascending node crosses the satellite orbits. In this paper, we describe the method to estimate impact probabilities with the satellites and investigate ways of reducing the probabilities for the Juno mission.

Lam, Try↗

NASA NTRS2016

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Hatfield, Glen S.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Exploring X-Ray Binary Populations in Compact Group Galaxies With Chandra

We obtain total galaxy X-ray luminosities, LX, originating from individually detected point sources in a sample of 47 galaxies in 15 compact groups of galaxies (CGs). For the great majority of our galaxies, we find that the detected point sources most likely are local to their associated galaxy, and are thus extragalactic X-ray binaries (XRBs) or nuclear active galactic nuclei (AGNs). For spiral and irregular galaxies, we find that, after accounting for AGNs and nuclear sources, most CG galaxies are either within the +/-1σ scatter of the Mineo et al. LX-star formation rate (SFR) correlation or have higher LX than predicted by this correlation for their SFR. We discuss how these "excesses" may be due to low metallicities and high interaction levels. For elliptical and S0 galaxies, after accounting for AGNs and nuclear sources, most CG galaxies are consistent with the Boroson et al. LX-stellar mass correlation for low-mass XRBs, with larger scatter, likely due to residual effects such as AGN activity or hot gas. Assuming non-nuclear sources are low- or high-mass XRBs, we use appropriate XRB luminosity functions to estimate the probability that stochastic effects can lead to such extreme LX values. We find that, although stochastic effects do not in general appear to be important, for some galaxies there is a significant probability that high LX values can be observed due to strong XRB variability.

X-rays: binaries↗