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Operating the Dual-Orbiter GRAIL Mission to Measure the Moon's Gravity

NASA's mission to measure the Moon's gravity and determine the interior structure, from crust to core, has almost completed its 3-month science data collection phase. The twin orbiters of the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission were launched from Florida on September 10, 2011, on a Delta-II launch vehicle. After traveling for nearly four months on a low energy trajectory to the Moon, they were inserted into lunar orbit on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. In January 2012 a series of circularization maneuvers brought the orbiters into co-planar near-circular polar orbits. In February a distant (75- km) rendezvous was achieved and the science instruments were turned on. A dual- frequency (Ka and S-band) inter-orbiter radio link provides a precise orbiter-to-orbiter range measurement that enables the gravity field estimation. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA, manages the GRAIL project. Mission management, mission planning and sequencing, and navigation are conducted at JPL. Lockheed Martin, the flight system manufacturer, operates the orbiters from their control center in Denver, Colorado. The orbiters together have performed 28 propulsive maneuvers to reach and maintain the science phase configuration. Execution of these maneuvers, as well as the payload checkout and calibration activities, has gone smoothly due to extensive pre-launch operations planning and testing. The key to the operations success has been detailed timelines for product interchange between the operations teams and proven procedures from previous JPL/LM planetary missions. Once in science phase, GRAIL benefitted from the payload operational heritage of the GRACE mission that measures the Earth's gravity.

Moon missions↗

Europa Clipper Payload Verification and Validation: Test and Analysis Program Design

NASA’s Europa Clipper mission – which is planned to launch in the mid-2020s – is designed to investigate the habitability of the jovian moon Europa with a state-of-the-art suite of over 10 sensors and instruments. Now past its project critical design review, Europa Clipper is starting the execution of its verification and validation (V&V) program. The payload V&V function in particular is responsible for designing and coordinating a thorough test and analysis program that will confirm the proper functioning and performance of our payload instruments. Given the large number of instruments to manage, we have developed a suite of standardized tests and analyses that are designed to cover all of the common interfaces across instruments, while allowing for flexibility to support the unique needs of individual instruments. This suite of activities, coordinated and/or performed by the payload team, forms the bulk of our payload verification and validation campaign. This paper provides a detailed summary of the full set of V&V activities in that suite, covering the four categories of activities: analysis of lower-level evidence, analysis via simulation, testing in the system testbeds, and testing in assembly, test, and launch operations (ATLO). We will describe the purpose of each activity type, how the activities are developed, and the review process for each type of activity. We then define the complete list of activities written for each instrument and how subtleties specific to certain instruments are managed. The discussion will provide a comprehensive understanding of the activities in the payload V&V purview and how various interfaces with different levels of the project are managed. This paper also describes key metrics the payload team uses to track V&V progress and some insights into the teaming design and division of labor we use to ensure consistency and completeness across the entire payload suite. Finally, the paper will offer a snapshot of the status of the Payload V&V program prior to instrument delivery and offer insights into the upcoming phase of instrument delivery and the start of ATLO.

Lee, Dennis↗

Forward Physics Facility

High-energy collisions at the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider will produce a large number of particles along the beam collision axis, outside of the acceptance of existing LHC experiments. The proposed Forward Physics Facility (FPF), to be located 617--682 meters from the ATLAS interaction point along the beam collision axis and shielded by concrete and rock, will host a suite of experiments to probe Standard Model processes and search for physics beyond the Standard Model. The FPF is supported by a rapidly growing user community of 400 physicists, and four pathfinder detectors that are currently operating at the LHC have already yielded promising results, including the first direct detection of collider neutrinos. Here we provide an Executive Summary, and then briefly summarize the status of the FPF, including its rich science case, the facility itself, the proposed FPF experiments and their technical readiness, the preliminary schedule and budget profile, and plans for international participation. Submitted to the DOE/NSF HEPAP Particle Physics Projects Prioritization Panel~(P5)

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA GRC UAS Project - Communications Modeling and Simulation Development Status

The integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the National Airspace represents new operational concepts required in civil aviation. These new concepts are evolving as the nation moves toward the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) under the leadership of the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO), and through ongoing work by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The desire and ability to fly UAS in the National Air Space (NAS) in the near term has increased dramatically, and this multi-agency effort to develop and implement a national plan to successfully address the challenges of UAS access to the NAS in a safe and timely manner is well underway. As part of the effort to integrate UAS in the National Airspace, NASA Glenn Research Center is currently involved with providing research into Communications systems and Communication system operations in order to assist with developing requirements for this implementation. In order to provide data and information regarding communication systems performance that will be necessary, NASA GRC is tasked with developing and executing plans for simulations of candidate future UAS command and control communications, in line with architectures and communications technologies being developed and or proposed by NASA and relevant aviation organizations (in particular, RTCA SC-203). The simulations and related analyses will provide insight into the ability of proposed communications technologies and system architectures to enable safe operation of UAS, meeting UAS in the NAS project goals (including performance requirements, scalability, and interoperability), and ultimately leading to a determination of the ability of NextGen communication systems to accommodate UAS. This presentation, compiled by the NASA GRC Modeling and Simulation team, will provide an update to this ongoing effort at NASA GRC as follow-up to the overview of the planned simulation effort presented at ICNS in 2013. The objective of presentation will be to describe the progress made in developing both a NAS-Wide simulation architecture application and the detailed radiocomm system models for this research, and will present interim data and information compiled in the process of developing these simulation capabilities to date.

Modeling and Simulation↗

Building and Executing Aggressive Research Plans in a Large National Laboratory Consortium: Insights from the Co-Optimization of Fuels and Engines Initiative

This report describes lessons learned in the establishment, execution and termination of a large, multi-institutional consortium, derived from the Co-Optimization of Fuels and Engines experience. The decision to form a consortium comes with benefits (in advancing challenging multidisciplinary research) and costs (in time and additional management funds). Once the decision is made, key elements to a strong start include establishing a shared vision and goals; engaging an experienced project manager early; instituting feedback and oversight mechanisms to ensure relevance, strong performance, and situational awareness. Once a consortium is up and running, DOE and leadership should strike the right balance between competition and collaboration; foster an environment that builds trust; and adjust the organizational structure as needed to maintain collaboration. Finally, DOE and the labs can plan effectively for a smooth transition as a consortium winds down. This report provides some additional lessons and details on these lessons that we hope future DOE and lab leaders will find useful as they contemplate standing up new consortia.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Quantum Nature and Mass of the Neutrino. FY20 Annual Laboratory Continuation Progress Report

Over the last 100 years we have learned a much about the neutrino, but there remain interesting questions about this weakly interacting particle. In particular, at LLNL we are developing experiments to measure the mass and the quantum nature of the neutrino. The 2015 long range plan recommended tonne-scale neutrinoless double beta decay experiments as the top new project priority and this experiment will target the quantum nature of the neutrino. The LLNL team is motivated and focused on developing the best technology for this experiment which is a liquid xenon time project chamber called nEXO. On a longer time scale, LLNL is also developing technology to measure the neutrino mass with tritium decay experiments. Work on nEXO at LLNL started in 2015 with an LDRD and program development funds to develop the nEXO concept, publish sensitivity predictions, explore alternatives and risks, and to build a credible project team and this effort is on going. In addition, we received research funding from DOE-SC NP and LLNL manages pre-conceptual R&D for the nEXO collaboration a portion of which is executed at LLNL. The Project 8 effort is solely funded by LLNL LDRD, and ends this year. A second LDRD effort is focused on repurposing cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy for eV-scale X-ray detection. This second effort, while separated from Project 8, still has scientific and technical commonalities with Project 8. The funding for this X-ray detection effort will continue for one more year. LLNL has a long history of building large projects, science projects and time projection chambers, but nEXO is in fact the first project of this scale that LLNL is prepared to lead for DOE-SC NP.We have the tools, skills, people and motivation to make nEXO a reality. The current program development dollars are used to prepare the nEXO concept for down select and CD1. These internal LLNL dollars pay for a number of things including project staff to organize the nEXO collaboration for the various reviews that lie ahead, to develop the draft plans and structure to manage the project as well as setting up an external advisory committee. The current LDRD is exploring alternatives that effect the risk profile as well as possible performance improvements. The DOE-SC NP base funding is targeted at simulation and analysis of the nEXO concept in preparation for the down select and refinement of the understanding of the detector as well as scientific effort on the large xenon test stand (LXTS) that will burn down one of the largest risks to the nEXO project. Lastly, LLNL is leading the pre-conceptual R&D effort and managing the funds for the nEXO collaboration. The results of this effort are reported elsewhere, but the scope of this executed at LLNL will be reported here and is primarily the engineering and construction of the LXTS experiment. The primary technical contribution of LLNL to the Project 8 concept is the formation and study of atomic tritium. Atomic tritium is necessary for Project 8 to reach the ultimate sensitivity. LLNL has considerable experience with tritium and is well suited for this crucial work. Although the focus of this work is strictly fundamental science, there has already been one significant spinoff to develop a new means to measure radio xenon in the air

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SU-F-BRA-03: Integrating Novel Electromagnetic Tracking Hollow Needle Assistance in Permanent Implant Brachytherapy Procedures

Purpose: To report on the results of a complete permanent implant brachytherapy procedure assisted by an electromagnetic (EM) hollow needle possessing both 3D tracking and seed drop detection abilities. Methods: End-to-end in-phantom EM-assisted LDR procedures were conducted. The novel system consisted of an EM tracking apparatus (NDI Aurora V2, Planar Field Generator), a 3D US scanner (Philips CX50), a hollow needle prototype allowing 3D tracking and seed drop detection and a specially designed treatment planning software (Philips Healthcare). A tungsten-doped 30 cc spherical agarose prostate immersed in gelatin was used for the treatment. A cylindrical shape of 0.8 cc was carved along its diameter to mimic the urethra. An initial plan of 26 needles and 47 seeds was established with the system. The plan was delivered with the EM-tracked hollow needle, and individual seed drop locations were recorded on the fly. The phantom was subsequently imaged with a CT scanner from which seed positions and contour definitions were obtained. The DVHs were then independently recomputed and compared with those produced by the planning system, both before and after the treatment. Results: Of the 47 seeds, 45 (96%) were detected by the EM technology embedded in the hollow needle design. The executed plan (from CT analysis) differed from the initial plan by 2%, 14% and 8% respectively in terms of V100, D90 and V150 for the prostate, and by 8%, 7% and 10% respectively in terms of D5, V100 and V120 for the urethra. Conclusion: The average DVH deviations between initial and executed plans were within a 5% tolerance imposed for this proof-of-concept assessment. This relatively good concordance demonstrates the feasibility and potential benefits of combining EM tracking and seed drop detection for real-time dosimetry validation and assistance in permanent implant brachytherapy procedures. This project has been entirely funded by Philips Healthcare.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

High-Pressure Turbulent Flame Speeds and Chemical Kinetics of Syngas Blends with and without Impurities

This Final Report documents the entire four years of the project, from October 1, 2013 through September 30, 2017. This project was concerned with the chemical kinetics of fuel blends with high-hydrogen content in the presence of impurities. Emphasis was also on the design and construction of a new, high-pressure turbulent flame speed facility and the use of ignition delay times and flame speeds to elucidate the diluent and impurity effects on the fuel chemistry at gas turbine engine conditions and to also validate the chemical kinetics models. The project was divided into five primary tasks: 1) Project Management and Program Planning; 2) Turbulent Flame Speed Measurements at Atmospheric Pressure; 3) Experiments and Kinetics of Syngas Blends with Impurities; 4) Design and Construction of a High-Pressure Turbulent Flame Speed Facility; and 5) High-Pressure Turbulent Flame Speed Measurements. Details on the execution and results of each of these tasks are provided in the main report.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Summary of Pilot Project State Technical Assistance on Multi-Sector Analysis for Electric and Petroleum Fuels

The Oregon Energy Security Plan, (ODOE 2024) published in September 2024, builds a strong case for the state to give acute attention to the fuel supply chain. In December 2024, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in partnership with Oregon Department of Energy (ODOE), announced a pilot project to conduct an analysis that synthesizes current and projected transportation fuel dynamics, supply chain risks, and risk comparators with relevant sectors, such as transportation electrification, sponsored by the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER). The study, is intended to leverage existing modeling and frameworks from a recent 2024 sector coupling analysis supported by the DOEs Office of Electricity (OE) (B. Mitra, S. Pal, et al., Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part I: Sector Overviews 2024) (B. Mitra, S. Pal and J. Reeve, et al. 2024). While the PNNL team set out to conduct a quantitative risk analysis driven by detailed data that synthesizes current and projected transportation fuel dynamics, supply chain risks, and risk comparators with relevant sectors. The intention was to provide an approach that could be extendable to other parts of the country. They encountered data limitations and adjusted their approach accordingly. This report summarizes PNNL's original plan for executing the study, including limitations for obtaining data requirements for fuel flows and interim products, as well as a risk matrix that can be used to identify supply chain risks.

02 PETROLEUM↗

ASK Talks With Judy Stokley

In the summer of 1997, Judy Stokley took over as Program Director of the Air-to-Air Joint System Project Office (JSPO) at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida. As the JSPO Program Director, she directed much of her attention to reforming the Advanced Medium Range Air to Air Missile (AMRAAM) program, which had been operational since 1991 and was presently being produced for the Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps, and many international customers. Upon careful analysis of the program, she found it rife with problems. Two of the most pressing included a bloated Average Unit Procurement Cost and an Air Force mandated draw down plan that had not been met. In this interview, following her presentation at the Fourth NASA Masters Forum of Program and Project Managers in Dallas last February, Stokley discusses some of the difficulties she experienced in carrying out the AMRAAM reforms. Stokley is presently Air Force Program Executive Officer for Weapons in Washington, D.C. She is responsible for the cost, schedule, and technical performance of a portfolio of air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons programs. These programs represent the leading edge of weapons technology, including developing the next generation of precision-guided munitions -- 'smart' bombs -- and air superiority missiles.

Stokley, Judy↗

Experiences with Testing the Largest Ground System NASA Has Ever Built

In the 1980s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) embarked upon a major Earth-focused program called Mission to Planet Earth. The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) was selected to manage and develop a key component - the Earth Observing System (EOS). The EOS consisted of four major missions designed to monitor the Earth. The missions included 4 spacecraft. Terra (launched December 1999), Aqua (launched May 2002), ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite, launched January 2003), and Aura (scheduled for launch January 2004). The purpose of these missions was to provide support for NASA s long-term research effort for determining how human-induced and natural changes affect our global environment. The EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS), a globally distributed, large-scale scientific system, was built to support EOS. Its primary function is to capture, collect, process, and distribute the most voluminous set of remotely sensed scientific data to date estimated to be 350 Gbytes per day. The EOSDIS is composed of a diverse set of elements with functional capabilities that require the implementation of a complex set of computers, high-speed networks, mission-unique equipment, and associated Information Technology (IT) software along with mission-specific software. All missions are constrained by schedule, budget, and staffing resources, and rigorous testing has been shown to be critical to the success of each mission. This paper addresses the challenges associated with the planning, test definition. resource scheduling, execution, and discrepancy reporting involved in the mission readiness testing of a ground system on the scale of EOSDIS. The size and complexity of the mission systems supporting the Aqua flight operations, for example, combined with the limited resources available, prompted the project to challenge the prevailing testing culture. The resulting success of the Aqua Mission Readiness Testing (MRT) program was due in no small measure to re-structuring the traditional programmatic and technical approach to a more efficient and robust program. Programmatically, it meant gaining the endorsement, commitment, and cooperation of the numerous subsystem element managers and other stakeholder organizations. Technically, it required an MRT program that was agile, could rapidly adapt to requirements changes, and was flexible in its overall approach. Furthermore, this paper addresses the following questions: 1. What are the key ingredients (e.g., test tools, organization) needed to conduct a successful MRT program? 2. What distinguishes EOS MRT from the traditional system testing approach? 3. Where should the focus of testing be since it is infeasible to test every element or subsystem? 4. How can MRT be applied effectively to other systems or missions? To provide answers to these questions, this paper relies heavily on real-life, hands-on experiences ("lessons learned") gained during mission readiness testing of the Terra ground system and, most recently, the Aqua and ICESat missions. Moreover, this paper explores how lessons learned were turned into lessons applied for the upcoming Aura mission. Although derived from the EOS missions, MRT techniques and strategies can be applied to enhance the testing of other missions.

Lehtonen, Ken↗

Mass Inferencing Model Creation And Deployment To Lunar Excavation Robot, RASSOR

NASA’s Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot (RASSOR) Excavator is a teleoperated mobile robotic platform with a unique space regolith excavation capability. This research project developed functionality for inferencing regolith mass ingested during RASSOR operation, enhancing RASSOR’s ability to successfully complete ISRU missions. Radio wave propagation time to the Moon and back is ~2.56 seconds. Though teleoperation is possible with this delay, autonomous capability that enables RASSOR to plan and execute excavation missions intelligently and efficiently is preferred. To teleoperate or run autonomously, it is crucial for the quantity of regolith mass ingested by RASSOR to be available as a system state for efficient operation (e.g. knowledge of whether drums are full informs the task of highest priority, whether it be continuing to dig, or returning to a processing plant to offload regolith). A configurable data reduction and analysis pipeline was created to allow for straightforward incorporation of new data, such as that from lunar excavation, to improve model performance in new environments. Four distinct modeling approaches were employed in developing a mass inferencing approach that could work on RASSOR. All four models take in system states and output a mass prediction for each set of the robot’s bucket drums. Initial results from deployment to RASSOR and testing in a simulated lunar environment show that the models have <10% mean error during robot operation. Future work includes refinement of a model that estimates regolith mass in real-time during excavation as well as further testing of the developed models on the hardware.

ROS↗

One System Overview - 16579

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of River Protection (ORP) is responsible for managing and completing the River Protection Project mission, which is to 'safeguard the nuclear waste stored in Hanford's 177 underground tanks, and to manage the waste safely and responsibly until it can be treated in the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant for final disposition'. The Office of River Protection's work scope is currently performed through two primary contracts: - The Tank Operations Contract, held by Washington River Protection Solutions LLC, (WRPS) includes the construction, operation, and maintenance activities necessary to safely store, retrieve, and transfer tank wastes; provide supplemental tank waste treatment; provide storage and/or disposal of primary and secondary waste streams; design, construction and commissioning of the Low-Activity Waste Pretreatment System; and support ORP to integrate Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) completion and startup with Tank Farms operations. - The WTP Contract, held by Bechtel National, Inc. (BNI), includes the design, construction, and commissioning of a Pretreatment Facility, two vitrification facilities (one for high-level waste and one for low-activity waste), a dedicated analytical laboratory, and supporting facilities to treat radioactive tank wastes by immobilizing them into a stable glass waste form. One System was established as a means to improve the integration between the tank farms and the WTP project to support its safe and successful startup. One System's scope and purpose focus on mission integration consistent with DOE's plans to treat tank waste in phases, starting with direct feed of the low-activity waste stream to the WTP's Low-Activity Waste (LAW) Vitrification Facility (referred to as DFLAW). The One System organization now has four major focus areas: - Flowsheet Integration? Integrated River Protection Project (RPP) flowsheet development and management; developing a gaps, risks, and opportunities management plan and technical roadmap; and waste feed qualification. - Mission Analysis and Planning? Strategic planning, system planning, and modeling integration. - WTP Startup, Commissioning, and Operations Integration? Interface Control Document (ICD) management, coordinating facilities startup-to-commissioning-to-operations, contract directives and standards identification, and DFLAW program integration. - Project Integration and Controls? Integrated schedule, metrics/dashboards monitoring, and One System risk register. ORP established the DFLAW Program Office in February 2015 as one of its key performance goals. ORP staff, along with contractor managers, have identified roles and responsibilities for the each of the four major focus areas. One System has established an Executive Council and Governance Board to drive program progress and make decisions on DFLAW. This approach allows appropriate government and contractor senior management involvement in the DFLAW Program. Monthly critical path analysis on the integrated DFLAW schedule is being performed. Interface control documents specific to DFLAW have been developed, and system planning and modeling tools are being used to help define the DFLAW flowsheet. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Deploying Taller Turbines in Complex Terrain: A Hill Flow Study (HilFlowS) Perspective

Terrain-induced flow acceleration is presented for the summertime, peak power season at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Site 300 for the Hill Flow Study (HilFlowS). HilFlowS, designed as an adjunct field campaign to the Department of Energy’s Second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2), provides wind profile observations at a second location in complex terrain for validating numerical atmospheric model simulations and for better understanding flow behavior over hills for wind power generation. One unique feature of HilFlowS was the inclusion of an undergraduate university student who helped plan and execute the experiment as well as analyze wind data from two remote sensing laser detection and ranging (lidar) instruments deployed along parallel ridgelines. HilFlowS examines the trend of building higher into the atmosphere for the purpose of increasing wind turbine power production and evaluates the wind resource in the Altamont Pass Region of Northern California for a set of wind turbines of differing hub-heights and rotor-disk diameters found in the area. The wind profiles show strongly channeled onshore flow above both hills, enhanced by strong subsidence aloft, which produces a wind maximum (Umax) around z = 10 m and strong negative shear throughout all of the evaluated rotor-disks for much of the summer wind season. Under these conditions, shear becomes more negative with increasing hub-height and increasing rotor-disk size. Rotor-disk equivalent wind speed (Uequiv), a measure of the average wind speed across the entire rotor-disk, is compared to hub-height, rotor length, and rated capacity factor for the set of turbines. Uequiv is most closely related to turbine hub-height and is negatively correlated given the low altitude of Umax. Based on these results, building the largest capacity, large rotor-disk wind turbine at the lowest possible hub-height appears to provide turbines in the Altamont with a fast, near-surface, onshore wind resource during the peak power season.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An application of artificial intelligence to automatic telescopes

Automatic Photoelectric Telescopes (APT's) allow an astronomer to be removed form the telescope site in both time and space. APT's 'execute' an observation program (a set of observation requests) expressed in an ASCII-based language (ATIS) and collect observation results expressed in this same language. The observation program is currently constructed by a Principal Astronomer from the requests of multiple users; the execution is currently controlled by a simple heuristic dispatch scheduler. Research aimed at improving the use of APT's is being carried out by the Entropy Reduction Engine (ERE) project at NASA Ames. The overall goal of the ERE project is the study and construction of systems that integrate planning, scheduling, and control. This paper discusses the application of some ERE technical results to the improvement of both the scheduling and the operation of APT's.

Swanson, Keith↗

Chemically Enabled CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery in Multi-Porosity, Hydrothermally Altered Carbonates in the Southern Michigan Basin (Final Technical Report)

This is the Final Technical Report for the project "Chemically Enabled CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery in Multi-Porosity, Hydrothermally Altered Carbonates in the Southern Michigan Basin." Over the course of six years of collaboration between Battelle and project partners, all stated objectives of the program have been completed, including full geological characterization of the TBR trend (See companion report for Task2), laboratory and modeling experiments to determine the optimum composition and design of CO 2 -EOR operations in the TBR trend, execution of a field test of chemically-enhanced CO 2 in a TBR well, and integration of the data and learnings gathered during these efforts into a full-trend development plan. Detailed reporting on these activities, their outcomes, and implications for trend-wide development is provided in the report. This report and encompassed data will provide TBR field operators with detailed information on what worked, what did not work, and how to proceed with production optimization of their TBR assets using chemically-enhanced CO 2 -EOR. CO 2 -EOR is a relatively well understood and broadly implemented strategy for increasing incremental production across the oil and gas industry, but its application has been primarily focused on reservoirs with limited heterogeneity. The intention of this project was show first that the same physical mechanisms that improve recovery factors in homogeneous reservoirs (namely wettability alteration, viscosity alteration, oil swelling, and mobility control) are at play in heterogeneous reservoirs. This was proven by the project’s laboratory studies and dynamic simulations, with the potential exception of mobility control, which needs further study. The second intention was to demonstrate via direct field testing that CO 2 -EOR can work in a strongly heterogeneous reservoir. While the field test strategy implemented during this project did not succeed in producing oil, data gathered during the test sheds light on what may work for field operators who try chemically-enhanced CO 2 -EOR within their own reservoirs, significantly reducing the level of uncertainty carried by first-of-a-kind commercial efforts that could (and should) follow this test. Simultaneously, the project has identified several large-volume ethanol plants and other sources of CO 2 emissions in the region and provided a handrail that CO 2 emitters and field operators can leverage to capture, transport, and inject that CO 2 into their fields. This project has also shown that, in many cases, the economics of CO 2 -EOR in the TBR are attractive. And finally, by completing a project of this scope in the southern Michigan Basin, the project has contributed to the knowledge base and operational experience of field operators, state regulatory agencies, local service companies, and state universities, with CO 2 -EOR projects which should allow follow-on projects to proceed safely and efficiently.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Template Matching Approach to Signal Prediction

A new approach to signal prediction and prognostic assessment of spacecraft health resolves an inherent difficulty in fusing sensor data with simulated data. This technique builds upon previous work that demonstrated the importance of physics-based transient models to accurate prediction of signal dynamics and system performance. While models can greatly improve predictive accuracy, they are difficult to apply in general because of variations in model type, accuracy, or intended purpose. However, virtually any flight project will have at least some modeling capability at its disposal, whether a full-blown simulation, partial physics models, dynamic look-up tables, a brassboard analogue system, or simple hand-driven calculation by a team of experts. Many models can be used to develop a predict, or an estimate of the next day s or next cycle s behavior, which is typically used for planning purposes. The fidelity of a predict varies from one project to another, depending on the complexity of the simulation (i.e. linearized or full differential equations) and the level of detail in anticipated system operation, but typically any predict cannot be adapted to changing conditions or adjusted spacecraft command execution. Applying a predict blindly, without adapting the predict to current conditions, produces mixed results at best, primarily due to mismatches between assumed execution of spacecraft activities and actual times of execution. This results in the predict becoming useless during periods of complicated behavior, exactly when the predict would be most valuable. Each spacecraft operation tends to show up as a transient in the data, and if the transients are misaligned, using the predict can actually harm forecasting performance. To address this problem, the approach here expresses the predict in terms of a baseline function superposed with one or more transient functions. These transients serve as signal templates, which can be relocated in time and space against the signal background. One then has the ability to reconstruct a signal regardless of the precise timing of the transients. During operation, one applies the actual start times of spacecraft activities as they occur, and produces a reconstructed, accurate predict in real-time. This general approach is valid under two important conditions. First, the transients themselves must be time-invariant. Second, the transients must be reasonably consistent with respect to different operating points. Both of these assumptions are generally valid, but in the case of a complicated system with numerous types of overlapping transients, this approach may not be effective. Fortunately, there tend to be few transients in spacecraft telemetry of sensor quantities or low-level health and status information because these signals rarely reflect multiple different types of operation. Furthermore, if the predict is at least reasonably close to actual operation, the shift either in time, or in the operating point when the transient occurs - is likely to be small. The proposed approach considers three ways to recognize a transient. The first and most reliable is to use a different signal that identifies operating mode - often the transient will be correlated to a change in operating mode, and this change can usually be detected positively from discrete signals in spacecraft telemetry. If there is no useful mode signal, the second option is to identify the transient template by hand, and detect the onset of the transient using a curve-fitting approach. Finally, if one elects not to choose by hand, there is an option for automatic selection. This technique has been applied to sensor data from several JPL missions and industrial applications, demonstrating an improvement in accurate prediction of future behavior and early detection of system problems. This technique is applicable to practically any time-varying, quantitative sensor measurement.

Mackey, Ryan↗

IV&V Planning & Execution Initiative

Independent verification and validation (IV&V) is a systems engineering discipline which seeks to provide confidence that mission-critical software-dependent systems will operate safely and achieve all mission objectives. In order to optimize application of IV&V resources, it is necessary to identify specific assurance objectives that are most likely to reveal difficulty and therefore to increase confidence. Software assurance literature deals predominantly with the code itself. However, our experience is that the most significant software-related issues are discovered via analysis of other system artifacts such as operations concepts, requirements and design. Consequently, it is desirable to, when assessing risk and defining assurance objectives, consider all facets of the software system architecture. We describe in this presentation progress and lessons learned from an IV&V capability development initiative to enhance the IV&V project planning process using all available architecture information.

Risk↗