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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Shallow Geothermal Resources for Cooling Applications at the University of Hawai'i

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy's Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company's GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

building cooling↗
DOE OSTI2025

2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves Update: Preprint

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy’s Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company’s GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

BPS Wilson loop in $\mathcal{N}$ = 2 superconformal SU(N) “orientifold” gauge theory and weak-strong coupling interpolation

We consider the expectation value \( \left\langle \mathcal{W}\right\rangle \) of the circular BPS Wilson loop in \( \mathcal{N} \) = 2 superconformal SU( N ) gauge theory containing a vector multiplet coupled to two hypermultiplets in rank-2 symmetric and antisymmetric representations. This theory admits a regular large N expansion, is planar-equivalent to \( \mathcal{N} \) = 4 SYM theory and is expected to be dual to a certain orbifold/orientifold projection of AdS 5 × S 5 superstring theory. On the string theory side \( \left\langle \mathcal{W}\right\rangle \) is represented by the path integral expanded near the same AdS 2 minimal surface as in the maximally supersymmetric case. Following the string theory argument in [5], we suggest that as in the \( \mathcal{N} \) = 4 SYM case and in the \( \mathcal{N} \) = 2 SU( N ) × SU( N ) superconformal quiver theory discussed in [19], the coefficient of the leading non-planar 1/ N 2 correction in \( \left\langle \mathcal{W}\right\rangle \) should have the universal λ 3/2 scaling at large ’t Hooft coupling. We confirm this prediction by starting with the localization matrix model representation for \( \left\langle \mathcal{W}\right\rangle \) . We complement the analytic derivation of the λ 3/2 scaling by a numerical high-precision resummation and extrapolation of the weak-coupling expansion using conformal mapping improved Padé analysis.

1/N Expansion↗
DOE OSTI2022

Empirical relationships between environmental factors and soil organic carbon produce comparable prediction accuracy as the Machine Learning

Accurate representation of environmental controllers of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Earth System Model (ESM) land models could reduce uncertainties in future carbon-climate feedback projections. Using empirical relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks to evaluate land models can help modelers understand prediction biases beyond what can be achieved with the observed SOC stocks alone. In this study, we used 31 observed environmental factors, field SOC observations (n = 6,213) from the continental US, and two Machine Learning approaches [Random Forest (RF) and Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM)] to (1) select important environmental predictors of SOC stocks, (2) derive empirical relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks, and (3) use the derived relationships to predict SOC stocks and compare the prediction accuracy of simpler model developed with the machine learning predictions. Out of the 31 environmental factors we investigated, 12 were identified as important predictors of SOC stocks by the RF approach. In contrast, the GAM approach identified six (of those 12) environmental factors as important controllers of SOC stocks: potential evapotranspiration, normalized difference vegetation index, soil drainage condition, precipitation, elevation, and net primary productivity. The GAM approach showed minimal SOC predictive importance of the remaining six environmental factors identified by the RF approach. Our derived empirical relations produced comparable prediction accuracy as the GAM and RF approach using only a subset of environmental factors. The empirical relationships we derived using the GAM approach can serve as important benchmarks to evaluate environmental control representations of SOC stocks in ESMs, which could reduce uncertainty in predicting future carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Historical evaluation and future projections of compound heatwave and drought extremes over the conterminous United States in CMIP6 *

Abstract Independently, both droughts and heatwaves can induce severe impacts on human and natural systems. However, when these two climate extremes occur concurrently in a given region, their compound impacts are often more pronounced. With the improvement in both the spatiotemporal resolution and representation of complex climate processes in the global climate models (GCMs), they are increasingly used to study future changes in these extremes and associated regional impacts. However, GCM selection for such impact assessments is generally based on historical performance and/or future mean changes, without considering individual or compound extremes. In contrast, this study evaluates historical performance and projected changes in heatwaves, droughts, and compound heatwave-droughts using an ensemble of GCMs from the latest Phase 6 of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project at a regional scale across the conterminous United States. Additionally, we explore the inter-model differences in the projected changes that are associated with various characteristics of extremes and the choice of drought indices. Our analysis reveals considerable variation among the GCMs, as well as substantial differences in the projected changes based on the choice of drought indices and region of interest. For example, the projected increases in both the frequency and intensity of drought and associated compound extreme days, based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index far exceed those derived from the standard precipitation index. Further, the largest changes in the frequency of compound extremes are projected over the Southwest, South Central, and parts of the Southeast while the smallest changes are projected over the Northeast. Overall, this study provides important insights for the interpretation and selection of GCMs for future assessment studies that are crucial for the development of regional adaptation strategies in the face of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems

The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.

DER integration↗
DOE OSTI2022

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Methodology and Results of Model Calibration, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

The United States is embarking on an ambitious transition to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050, which will require improving the flexibility of electric grids. One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High- quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information, and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation (Frick, Eckman, and Goldman 2017; Frick 2019). To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a three-year project - End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock - that culminated in the release of a publicly available dataset1 of simulated EULPs representing residential and commercial buildings across the contiguous United States. The motivation for this work is further detailed in a November 2019 report: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps (Mims Frick et al. 2019). This Methodology and Results report provides detailed descriptions of how the dataset was developed, intended for an audience of dataset and model users interested in the technical details. These details include descriptions of all of the model improvements made for calibration and the final comparisons to empirical data sources. A companion report, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Applications and Opportunities, will be published subsequently and will describe example applications and considerations for using the dataset, intended for an audience of general dataset users.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

City-Wide Distributed Roof-Top Photovoltaic System Adoption Forecast, Grid Impact Simulation, & Neighborhood Microgrid Contribution Assessment

The adoption of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems grew significantly in recent years. Market projections anticipate future growth for both residential and commercial installations. To understand grid impacts associated with distributed PV, useful hosting capacity studies require accurate representations of the spatial distribution of PV adoptions. Prediction of PV locations and numbers depends on median income data, building use zoning maps, and permit records to understand existing trends and predict future adoption rates and locations throughout an entire city. Using the PV adoption data, advanced and realistic simulations were performed to capture the distributed PV impacts on the grid. Also, using graph theory community detection hundreds of neighborhood microgrids can be discovered for the entire city by identifying densely connected loads that are sparsely connected to other communities. Then, based on the PV adoption predictions, this work identified the contribution of PV within each of the newly discovered graph theory defined microgrid communities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) Model: Overview and Validation of V1.0 [Slides]

This presentation documents the approaches and methods used in the Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options™ (TEMPO) model to evaluate passenger and freight demand for transportation and mobility services, project vehicle ownership and technology adoption decisions, and determine transport mode choices to derive scenarios of future energy use and emissions. TEMPO is an all-inclusive transportation demand model that covers the entire United States, with an implicit spatial resolution and an hourly temporal resolution that allows for generating time-resolved energy use profiles to assess multisectoral integration aspects. Key features of the TEMPO model include the ability to perform endogenous out-of-sample forecasting to extrapolate recent emerging trends and analyze impacts of disruptive technological breakthroughs and behavioral changes. TEMPO employs an innovative representation of passenger mobility demand stemming from household-level decisions that determine vehicle adoption, ownership, and use based on sociodemographics (e.g., income, household composition), technology attributes (e.g., travel cost, time), geography (e.g., urban, suburban, rural) and population-specific multiday mobility and travel requirements. This representation enables a more forward-looking perspective on the use of new mobility options and the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, as well as a more accurate representation of their energy usage profiles than previous modeling approaches. A comparison with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook showcases the ability of TEMPO to accurately replicate widely accepted projections by representing the key elements of the entire transportation sector at the appropriate level of resolution. TEMPO is intended to generate future scenarios of technology adoption, energy use, and emissions in the transportation sector to compare alternatives, inform decision makers, and assess integration with energy infrastructure and supply systems at an appropriate spatiotemporal resolution.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Database of Environmental Mitigations Extracted from FERC-Licensed Hydropower Projects Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques, 1998-2023

This dataset provides a comprehensive inventory of environmental mitigation measures required by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) licensed hydropower facilities from 461 licenses that were issued from 1998 to 2023. These licenses constitute 446 of the 1015 FERC projects that were active at the end of 2023. 17,612 mentions of environmental mitigations were identified and categorized in 128 unique categories. Mitigations were identified using a Natural Language Processing (NLP) approach, specifically with a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformer (BERT) model. Model-derived results were then reviewed and updated by a subject matter expert as needed. This dataset introduces important enhancements to previous efforts to inventory environmental mitigations, such as including associated license text for each mitigation, tracking the number of instances a mitigation was identified within a license, and providing improved location information. These enhancements significantly expand the dataset's utility, offering greater analytical capabilities and ensuring reproducibility. The dataset is downloadable as a zip file containing the metadata and dataset files.

Ruggles, Thomas [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2022

Additive Manufacturing Flaw Assessment Methodology

An evolution fatigue data and flaw tolerance of components produced using the Powder Bed Fusion (PBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) process is documented in this report. Initial differences in fatigue data for AM components compared to smooth bar fatigue data indicated a need for a more detailed analysis of AM data available in technical literature. The investigation was initiated to support the development of a fatigue analysis methodology for AM components to support the of codification of AM technology for pressure equipment. The project was initiated to collect and analyze stainless steel 304L and 316L AM fatigue test data and corresponding process and quality information to develop S-N and E-N based fatigue data representation. Additional AM fatigue test data including Inconel Ti-6-4 and aluminum alloys were also considered for comparison purposes Metallic AM parts tend to contain various forms of defects distributed throughout the part. If an AM part is subjected to fatigue loading in service, a fatigue analysis needs to be performed during the design process to ensure an acceptable service life for the part. Post-process machining and polishing do not to improve fatigue resistance in any significant degree. The low cycle fatigue regime is of particular interest to this project in support of flaw acceptance criteria currently under development by ASME’s BPTCS/BNCS. Internal defects become exposed as external surface defects during machining for the machining of the AM part to final dimensions. This implies that as long as inherent AM defects are within a controlled limit in terms of both size and distribution characteristics, the corresponding fatigue test data in terms of either S-N (stress life) or E-N (strain life) can be investigated and characterized to establish fatigue properties of AM parts for design and fatigue evaluation purposes. The resulting S-N or E-N curves and their scatter bands can be used to derive fatigue design allowable stress values by capturing the effects of distributed discontinuities within an acceptable limit.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

TransformerG2G: Adaptive time-stepping for learning temporal graph embeddings using transformers

Dynamic graph embedding has emerged as a very effective technique for addressing diverse temporal graph analytic tasks (i.e., link prediction, node classification, recommender systems, anomaly detection, and graph generation) in various applications. Such temporal graphs exhibit heterogeneous transient dynamics, varying time intervals, and highly evolving node features throughout their evolution. Hence, incorporating long-range dependencies from the historical graph context plays a crucial role in accurately learning their temporal dynamics. In this paper, we develop a graph embedding model with uncertainty quantification, TransformerG2G, by exploiting the advanced transformer encoder to first learn intermediate node representations from its current state (t) and previous context (over timestamps [t–1,t–l], l is the length of context). Moreover, we employ two projection layers to generate lower-dimensional multivariate Gaussian distributions as each node's latent embedding at timestamp t. We consider diverse benchmarks with varying levels of "novelty" as measured by the TEA (Temporal Edge Appearance) plots. Here, our experiments demonstrate that the proposed TransformerG2G model outperforms conventional multi-step methods and our prior work (DynG2G) in terms of both link prediction accuracy and computational efficiency, especially for high degree of novelty. Furthermore, the learned time-dependent attention weights across multiple graph snapshots reveal the development of an automatic adaptive time stepping enabled by the transformer. Importantly, by examining the attention weights, we can uncover temporal dependencies, identify influential elements, and gain insights into the complex interactions within the graph structure. For example, we identified a strong correlation between attention weights and node degree at the various stages of the graph topology evolution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis Report: Supporting Documents 2 Production Based Costing

The purpose of this section is to outline a method of cost analysis whereby a significantly better representation of “should achieve” costs may be attained for NOAK systems. Based on economists’ notions of producer theory, and grounded in the cost analysts’ and project managers’ tool called the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), this section describes best practices in cost estimation. It then illustrates how the Code of Accounts (COA) structure, developed by the Economic Modeling Working Group (EMWG) of the Generation IV International Forum in “Cost Estimating Guidelines for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems [EMWG 2007] (hereafter “Gen IV Guidelines Document”), can be used to differentiate “should achieve” versus “did experience” costs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding and improving model representation of aerosol optical properties for a Chinese haze event measured during KORUS-AQ

KORUS-AQ was an international cooperative air quality field study in South Korea that measured local and remote sources of air pollution affecting the Korean Peninsula during May–June 2016. Some of the largest aerosol mass concentrations were measured during a Chinese haze transport event (24 May). Air quality forecasts using the WRF-Chem model with aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation captured AOD during this pollution episode but overpredicted surface particulate matter concentrations in South Korea, especially PM 2.5 , often by a factor of 2 or larger. Analysis revealed multiple sources of model deficiency related to the calculation of optical properties from aerosol mass that explain these discrepancies. Using in situ observations of aerosol size and composition as inputs to the optical properties calculations showed that using a low-resolution size bin representation (four bins) underestimates the efficiency with which aerosols scatter and absorb light (mass extinction efficiency). Besides using finer-resolution size bins (8–16 bins), it was also necessary to increase the refractive indices and hygroscopicity of select aerosol species within the range of values reported in the literature to achieve better consistency with measured values of the mass extinction efficiency (6.7 m 2 g –1 observed average) and light-scattering enhancement factor (ƒ(RH)) due to aerosol hygroscopic growth (2.2 observed average). Furthermore, an evaluation of the optical properties obtained using modeled aerosol properties revealed the inability of sectional and modal aerosol representations in WRF-Chem to properly reproduce the observed size distribution, with the models displaying a much wider accumulation mode. Other model deficiencies included an underestimate of organic aerosol density (1.0 g cm –3 in the model vs. observed average of 1.5 g cm –3 ) and an overprediction of the fractional contribution of submicron inorganic aerosols other than sulfate, ammonium, nitrate, chloride, and sodium corresponding to mostly dust (17 %–28 % modeled vs. 12 % estimated from observations). These results illustrate the complexity of achieving an accurate model representation of optical properties and provide potential solutions that are relevant to multiple disciplines and applications such as air quality forecasts, health impact assessments, climate projections, solar power forecasts, and aerosol data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extended Finite Element Based Approach in Additive Manufacturing Modeling for Optimizing Highly Complex Manifold in Protonic Ceramic Electrochemical Cells

The objective of this project is to develop a novel numerical approach based on the extended finite element method (XFEM) for modeling moving boundaries of material deposited in additive manufacturing (AM) process with improved accuracy and reduced computational cost. One of the major challenges in simulating AM processes is that the boundaries of the computational domain need to change as material is deposited. Previous approaches have achieved this by activating new finite elements, but this requires a high level of mesh refinement to capture small movement of the boundary. XFEM allows the solution boundary to move independently of the mesh, permitting smooth representation of the evolution of the boundary as material is deposited. As a result, this new method will significantly improve the simulation accuracy while reducing the computational cost compared with existing approaches. Furthermore, this project will bring significant improvements for the design and AM process optimization in an iterative fashion among numerical simuation, parameter optimization, and experimental validation. Specifically, this project will support the protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (PCEC) stack development at INL by providing insights into the density, residual stress, thermal and mechanical properties of the PCEC manifold and interconnect, which is critical in enhancing the system lifetime and reducing the overall cost. Upon the success of proposed development and validation of the proposed approach, simulation will be applied to determine an optimal set of AM process parameters for the PCEC manifold production. This project will consolidate Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s simulation capabilities provided by the MOOSE framework and the Valhalla AM simulation application, with encouraging expansion to emerging PCEC applications and AM technologies at INL and beyond.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toroidal magnetic field ripple in the presence of misaligned toroidal field coils on the COMPASS-U tokamak

Homogeneity of the toroidal magnetic field is a critical aspect of the tokamak fusion device. It is affected by the design of toroidal magnetic field coils and their manufacturing and assembly misalignments. The magnetic field of the COMPASS-U project is analysed using toroidal field ripple quantity. Here ANSYS modelling of bitter-plate-designed toroidal field coils is performed to prepare an accurate simplistic representation of the coils using a virtual current line. Toroidal field ripple is analysed using a Gaussian distribution of possible misalignments. The worst-case toroidal field ripple corresponding to the technical drawings only slightly exceeds the chosen limit of 0.5%.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation in HighResMIP AGCMs?

This study assesses the representation of the observed relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across nine models participating in CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Most models struggle to faithfully reproduce the observed impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TCs, with the primary issue being the underestimated TC activity over the Atlantic main development region (MDR). The negative biases in genesis frequency within the MDR can be further attributed to weaker-than-observed African easterly wave (AEW) activity south of ∼12°N. Errors in the diabatic heating profile within the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone lead to insufficient potential vorticity production in the lower troposphere and constrain the amplification of AEWs. In addition to the biased TC climatology, the eastward-propagating power of the MJO is consistently underestimated across all models. Nevertheless, in models with a higher eastward–westward power ratio, the simulated MJO demonstrates a stronger capacity to modulate subseasonal TC activity. Models with relatively realistic eastward propagation of the MJO also exhibit greater variance in tropical intraseasonal convection. Stronger contrasts in convective heating over the North Atlantic between phases 2–3 and phases 6–7 drive larger fluctuations in MDR shear and AEW activity over the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, resulting in a more pronounced TC response to the MJO. Overall, our findings suggest that improved MDR TC climatology and MJO propagation are essential for models to accurately capture the observed modulations of Atlantic TCs by the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗