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NASA NTRS2023

Observational Constraints Reduce Model Spread but Not Uncertainty in Global Wetland Methane Emission Estimates

The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH 4 source, estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions vary widely among approaches taken by bottom-up (BU) process-based biogeochemical models and top-down (TD) atmospheric inversion methods. Here, we integrate in situ measurements, multi-model ensembles, and a machine learning upscaling product into the International Land Model Benchmarking system to examine the relationship between wetland CH 4 emission estimates and model performance. We find that using better-performing models identified by observational constraints reduces the spread of wetland CH 4 emission estimates by 62% and 39% for BU- and TD-based approaches, respectively. However, global BU and TD CH 4 emission estimate discrepancies increased by about 15% (from 31 to 36 TgCH 4 year −1 ) when the top 20% models were used, although we consider this result moderately uncertain given the unevenly distributed global observations. Our analyses demonstrate that model performance ranking is subject to benchmark selection due to large inter-site variability, highlighting the importance of expanding coverage of benchmark sites to diverse environmental conditions. We encourage future development of wetland CH 4 models to move beyond static benchmarking and focus on evaluating site-specific and ecosystem-specific variabilities inferred from observations.

Kuang-Yu Chang↗
NASA NTRS2022

Hybrid data-driven and model-informed online tool wear detection in milling machines

Precision machining tool wear is responsible for low product throughput and quality. Monitoring the tool wear online is vital to prevent degradation in machining quality. However, direct real-time tool wear measurement is not practical. This paper presents residual-based anomaly detection models, combining a hybrid model comprised of a physics-based model and a data-driven model (a decision tree or a neural network) to predict signals of interest (e.g., power or forces) under nominal conditions, followed by Page’s cumulative sum test for detecting tool wear on-line using the computer numerical control machine measurements. The most informative features are ranked using dynamic programming and its approximation variants from real-time measurements and machine settings, such as the width of cut, depth of cut, feed rate and spindle speed, that serve as inputs to the predictive models. The baseline nominal model is incrementally updated with experimental data via a gradient boosted adaptation model to generate the residuals that account for discrepancies between the actual machine data under normal conditions and the baseline nominal model predictions. The hybrid model is validated against 20 Mazak milling machine experimental tests and one Haas run-to-failure experiment. The proposed anomaly detector is applied to synthetic data from simulations of the physics-based model at different operating conditions, measurement noise levels, and tool wear levels, and the methods were able to achieve an overall 92% accuracy in data with 1% noise. The anomaly detection methods based on hybrid model reduced the false alarms of either the data-driven or physical-based models alone, and are found to be capable of good online detection of tool wear.

Online anomaly detection↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open-source Numerical Modeling of Solidification Cracking Susceptibility: Application to Refractory Alloy Systems

Introduction. Alloys such as aluminum, nickel-base, and austenitic stainless steels are susceptible to solidification cracking during welding and 3D printing. Compositional optimization is one method used to effectively mitigate solidification cracking of those alloy systems. With the surge in hypersonic and in-space propulsion activities, refractory metals (Nb, Mo, Ta, W, and Re) and their alloy derivatives are increasing in importance due to their extreme high melting point and retention of high-temperature strength; however, their chemistry was most typically optimized to promote ductility during mechanical operations such as drawing and forming. Welding of such alloys has been a challenge due to a number of issues including solidification cracking, atmospheric contamination (O, C, and N), as well as a shift in ductile-to-brittle transition to higher temperature following grain growth induced by welding. Compositional optimization of refractory alloys for solidification cracking resistance in particular is desirable as their usage increases with the advent of advanced manufacturing methods such as 3D printing. This work evaluates the effect of compositional variation in refractory metal systems on the solidification cracking susceptibility with the goals of optimizing existing alloys and joining process techniques, and formulating new alloys with increased solidification cracking resistance. Experimental Procedures. A python code was developed in a Jupyter notebook environment (Michael and Sowards, 2023) to facilitate the calculation of crack susceptibility index proposed by Kou (2015). Composition is entered as a single point, or as a 1-D or 2-D array. The notebook calls pycalphad (Otis and Liu, 2017 and Bocklund et al, 2020) to calculate the evolution of fraction solid as a function of temperature (under either Scheil or equilibrium assumptions) and then evaluates steepness of the fraction solid curve near the terminal stage of solidification to predict solidification cracking resistance. Open source thermodynamic databases available at online repositories are used (van de Walle). The process is setup in an automated fashion to generate plots that show variation in solidification cracking susceptibility according to composition on 1-D line plots or 2-D contour plots. The Jupyter notebook and crack susceptibility algorithm was also integrated with a widely used commercial CALPHAD code for validation and alloy exploration. Results and Discussion. The crack susceptibility model was first validated against a series of refractory alloy compositions evaluated in past work which utilized a specialized Varestraint test built inside a vacuum chamber environment (Lessman and Gold, 1971). The alloys tested in the Varestraint apparatus included T-111 (Ta-8W-2Hf), ASTAR-811C (Ta-8W-1Re-0.7Hf-0.025C), FS-85 (Nb-27Ta-10W-1Zr), T-222 (Ta-9.6W-2.4Hf-0.01C), Ta-10W, B-66 (Nb-5Mo-5V-1Zr), and SCb-291 (Nb-10W-10Ta). The initial test of the model showed a strong correlation with empirical Varestraint data, i.e., a Spearman rank correlation between model predictions and hot cracking measurements was observed to be greater than 0.8. Following the validation, a set of refractory metal binary mixtures was investigated to evaluate sensitivity of Nb, Mo, W, and Ta to C, N, and O content. A series of plots were produced that suggest ppmw ranges of C, N, and O where solidification cracking increases significantly and reaches a maximum. Also comparative ranking of each primary refractory metal to each interstitial was produced. For example C produces greater cracking response in Mo whereas O produces greater cracking response in Ta and Nb. Such compositional values have utility in setting limits on pickup of these interstitial elements during welding and printing rather than using a one-size-fits-all approach. Furthermore, the results have use in determining additive powder recycling requirements, which is especially pertinent for refractory metal powders due to their high cost compared to conventional alloys. Another application created thousands of hypothetical alloys within the nominal specified composition range of two widely used refractory alloys C103 (Nb-10Hf-1Ti) and TZM (Mo-0.5Ti-0.1Zr). The cracking index was calculated for the alloys and results were fed into machine learning regression techniques including Multiple Linear Regression, Ridge Regression, and Lasso Regression to determine relative potency each alloying element had on computed solidification cracking index. A series of linear equations were produced that relate composition of C103 and TZM to solidification cracking index. The crack susceptibility of C103 for example is described by an equation of the form: cracking index ~ O + 0.667*C + 0.635*N + 0.00037*Ta – 0.0008*Hf (in wt.%) From that equation, it is clear that O has strong propensity to induce solidification cracking. Interestingly, Hf is shown to reduce calculated cracking response. Finally, realizing the potential of this method to discover new refractory alloy formulations across the period table that have low solidification cracking sensitivity, the code was applied to new untested alloy systems including W-Zr-C, W-Ta-C, and others. Conclusions. In summary, an open source numerical method has been developed using Python code to calculate Kou’s crack susceptibility index. The method was applied to refractory metals which are inherently difficult to study from a weldability testing standpoint since inert shielding gas is not sufficient and welding is typically done in vacuum, especially in light of findings presented here where oxygen has profound influence on solidification cracking. This work revealed the effect of compositional variations on a series of refractory metals and showed the framework defined here will be useful in 1) the development of new alloys that have improved weldability and 3D printability, 2) placing compositional limits on existing alloys, and 3) ensuring adequate controls of manufacturing processes such as 3D printing where powder reuse is critical. Keywords. pycalphad; Python; refractory metals; solidification cracking. References. B. Bocklund et. al. (2020) http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3630657. S. Kou. (2015) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actamat.2015.01.034. G.G. Lessmann and R.E. Gold. Welding Journal, issue 1, pp. 1-s – 8-s (1971). F.N. Michael and J.W. Sowards. NASA/TM-20230002218 (2023). R. Otis and Z.-K. Liu. (2017) http://doi.org/10.5334/jors.140. A. Van de Wallle et. al. (2018) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.calphad.2018.04.003.

pycalphad↗
NASA NTRS2008

Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight, enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling and thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. However, these materials are brittle and show degradation with time at high operating temperatures due to creep as well as cyclic mechanical and thermal loads. In addition, these materials are heterogeneous in their make-up and various factors affect their properties in a specific design environment. Most of these advanced composites involve two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and require a complex multi-step high temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these in addition to the variability in the constituent material properties, the observed behavior of composite materials exhibits scatter. Traditional material failure analyses employing a deterministic approach, where failure is assumed to occur when some allowable stress level or equivalent stress is exceeded, are not adequate for brittle material component design. Such phenomenological failure theories are reasonably successful when applied to ductile materials such as metals. Analysis of failure in structural components is governed by the observed scatter in strength, stiffness and loading conditions. In such situations, statistical design approaches must be used. Accounting for these phenomena requires a change in philosophy on the design engineer s part that leads to a reduced focus on the use of safety factors in favor of reliability analyses. The reliability approach demands that the design engineer must tolerate a finite risk of unacceptable performance. This risk of unacceptable performance is identified as a component's probability of failure (or alternatively, component reliability). The primary concern of the engineer is minimizing this risk in an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Canopy Cover Predictions using Ground Observations and Remotely Sensed Data

Maps of vegetation status are needed at many scales, from the field level to monitor ecosystem condition to the global level to understand the carbon cycle. Status is quantified by such variables as leaf area index, biomass, and fraction of canopy cover. Current methods of predicting vegetation variables use remote sensing data to provide a spatially exhaustive data source. In a study in western Montana, several hundred ground observations made by the US Forest Service on tenth-acre conifer plots were used to develop aspatial regression and geostatistical prediction models. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values from Landsat Thematic Mapper images were used as ancillary data. These models were then used to predict canopy cover at unsampled locations in a 97 square kilometer region on the boundary of the Flathead National Forest and the Bob Marshall Wilderness. Independent data from two dates six years apart were used for validation. Given the assumption that actual canopy cover remained relatively unchanged within this time period, partial validation can be achieved by measuring the correspondence of the two maps. This criterion results in ranking the aspatial regression maps as less accurate than the geostatistically generated maps. The geostatistical approach emphasizes ground measurements more heavily than does aspatid regression. Geostatistical simulations of canopy cover also provide a means of describing uncertainty about the patterns of canopy cover.

Dungan, Jennifer L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

LPV Modeling of a Flexible Wing Aircraft Using Modal Alignment and Adaptive Gridding Methods

One of the earliest approaches in gain-scheduling control is the gridding based approach, in which a set of local linear time-invariant models are obtained at various gridded points corresponding to the varying parameters within the flight envelop. In order to ensure smooth and effective Linear Parameter-Varying control, aligning all the flexible modes within each local model and maintaining small number of representative local models over the gridded parameter space are crucial. In addition, since the flexible structural models tend to have large dimensions, a tractable model reduction process is necessary. In this paper, the notion of s-shifted H2- and H Infinity-norm are introduced and used as a metric to measure the model mismatch. A new modal alignment algorithm is developed which utilizes the defined metric for aligning all the local models over the entire gridded parameter space. Furthermore, an Adaptive Grid Step Size Determination algorithm is developed to minimize the number of local models required to represent the gridded parameter space. For model reduction, we propose to utilize the concept of Composite Modal Cost Analysis, through which the collective contribution of each flexible mode is computed and ranked. Therefore, a reduced-order model is constructed by retaining only those modes with significant contribution. The NASA Generic Transport Model operating at various flight speeds is studied for verification purpose, and the analysis and simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling approach.

LPV Modeling↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Parametric Geometry Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Study Utilizing Design of Experiments (DOE)

Design of Experiments (DOE) techniques were applied to the Launch Abort System (LAS) of the NASA Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) parametric geometry Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) study to efficiently identify and rank the primary contributors to the integrated drag over the vehicles ascent trajectory. Typical approaches to these types of activities involve developing all possible combinations of geometries changing one variable at a time, analyzing them with CFD, and predicting the main effects on an aerodynamic parameter, which in this application is integrated drag. The original plan for the LAS study team was to generate and analyze more than1000 geometry configurations to study 7 geometric parameters. By utilizing DOE techniques the number of geometries was strategically reduced to 84. In addition, critical information on interaction effects among the geometric factors were identified that would not have been possible with the traditional technique. Therefore, the study was performed in less time and provided more information on the geometric main effects and interactions impacting drag generated by the LAS. This paper discusses the methods utilized to develop the experimental design, execution, and data analysis.

Rhew, Ray D.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Passive Method for Detecting Vegetation Stress from Orbit: Chlorophyll Fluorescence Spectra from Fraunhofer Lines

Solar-stimulated chlorophyll fluorescence measured with the Fraunhofer line depth method has correlated well with vegetation stress in previous studies. However, the instruments used in those studies were limited to a single solar absorption line (e.g. 656.3 nm), obviating the red/far-red ratio (R/FR) method. Optics and detector technology have reached the level whereby multiple, very narrow Fraunhofer lines are resolvable. Thirteen such lines span the visible spectrum in the red to far-red region where chlorophyll fluorescence occurs. Fluorescence intensities at the 13 Fraunhofer line wavelengths were used to model emission spectra. The source data were collected for summer and fall bean crops (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) subjected to various levels of nitrogen fertilization. The intensities were adjusted to account for Fraunhofer line depth and atmospheric transmittance. Multiple R/FR fluorescence ratios, calculated from the modeled fluorescence spectra, correlated strongly with leaf chlorophyll concentration and well with applied nitrogen. The ratio yielding the best correlation with chlorophyll utilized red fluorescence at the 694.5 nm Fraunhofer line and farred fluorescence at the 755.6 nm Fraunhofer line. Twenty R/FR ratios, each evaluated for the maximum differential between low and high (optimal) nitrogen treatments, ranked higher in some cases and lower in others, possibly related to the time of year the crops were grown and the stage of growth of the crops. Ratios with 728.9 nm and 738.9 nm in the denominator consistently ranked in the lowest and next lowest quartile, respectively. Ratios of the 656.3 nm Fraunhofer line and the 755.6 nm line consistently ranked highest for the summer crop. Ratios with 755.6 nm in the denominator ranked in the upper quartile for 10 out of 12 measurement dates. Differences in ratio ranking indicate that physiological conditions may be estimated using selected ratios of Fraunhofer lines within the context of R/FR analysis. A passive instrument designed to monitor R/FR chlorophyll fluorescence (i.e. vegetation stress) from orbit could be built today.

Theisen, Arnold F.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Collaborative Research: Atlantic Ocean Tropical/Subtropical Processes from Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales: Model/Data, Model/Model Comparison and Model/Data Synthesis Through Assimilation

The effort of this first year of research has been focused on the assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetric data into a primitive equation model of the Atlantic tropical/subtropical circulation. A reduced-rank, stationary Kalman filter has been constructed to assimilate the altimetric sea surface height anomaly (SHA) into the model. The goal is to assess how the inter-hemispheric transports between the Atlantic subtropics and tropics are affected by the assimilation and how the subsurface thermocline structure , and its variability ,is dynamically constrained by the SHA. The model is a reduced-gravity primitive equation GCM of the upper Atlantic Ocean between 30 S and 30 N. The assimilation scheme is an approximation to the extended Kalman filter in which the error covariances of the state estimates are calculated only in a reduced- dimension subspace. The subspace is defined by the leading empirical orthogonal functions calculated from an unconstrained model calculation. Both an identical twin experiment using simulated SHA observations and assimilation of the real TOPEX data were performed. Results from the twin experiments demonstrate the ability of the method to constrain the ocean circulation and the subsurface temperature structure. The impact on the subsurface temperature structure of TOPEX assimilation was assessed using data from expandable bathythermographs. This showed a substantial improvement in the estimated temperature variability only within 13 degrees in latitude around the equator. The impact of TOPEX SHA assimilation on zonally integrated meridional transport across different latitudes was also estimated. Again within 13 degrees from the equator both the mean amplitude and interannual variability of the surface and subsurface transports were significantly enhanced, while the transports were insensitive to the assimilation in the subtropics.

Malannotte-Rizzoli, Paola↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Use of Probabilistic Methods to Evaluate the Systems Impact of Component Design Improvements on Large Turbofan Engines

Probabilistic Structural Analysis (PSA) is now commonly used for predicting the distribution of time/cycles to failure of turbine blades and other engine components. These distributions are typically based on fatigue/fracture and creep failure modes of these components. Additionally, reliability analysis is used for taking test data related to particular failure modes and calculating failure rate distributions of electronic and electromechanical components. How can these individual failure time distributions of structural, electronic and electromechanical component failure modes be effectively combined into a top level model for overall system evaluation of component upgrades, changes in maintenance intervals, or line replaceable unit (LRU) redesign? This paper shows an example of how various probabilistic failure predictions for turbine engine components can be evaluated and combined to show their effect on overall engine performance. A generic model of a turbofan engine was modeled using various Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools (Quantitative Risk Assessment Software (QRAS) etc.). Hypothetical PSA results for a number of structural components along with mitigation factors that would restrict the failure mode from propagating to a Loss of Mission (LOM) failure were used in the models. The output of this program includes an overall failure distribution for LOM of the system. The rank and contribution to the overall Mission Success (MS) is also given for each failure mode and each subsystem. This application methodology demonstrates the effectiveness of PRA for assessing the performance of large turbine engines. Additionally, the effects of system changes and upgrades, the application of different maintenance intervals, inclusion of new sensor detection of faults and other upgrades were evaluated in determining overall turbine engine reliability.

Packard, Michael H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Machine Learning-Derived Microbiological and Immune Signatures: Applications in Adaptive Risk Assessment of Infectious Disease During Spaceflight

Infectious diseases represent an urgent risk for spaceflight with consequences ranging from loss in crew performance to crew incapacitation or loss of life should an outbreak occur. The resident environmental microbiome on the International Space Station has been monitored through routine surveillance over almost twenty years, beginning with culture-based microbial detection which has advanced to molecular methods in recent years. This has created a wealth of data that we have begun mining to define the microbial ecology of the ISS. Summarized here is our analysis of data from the historical microbial population defined by culture-based monitoring from the past two decades, organized by their likelihood to cause disease into clinical categories. As expected, many residents of the normal microflora in environments where people work and live were detected. However, some known pathogens were also detected. As the spaceflight environment can predispose humans to infection, crew health records were used to source additional data for the set to uncover clinical relevance. Data mining was performed on crew health records to capture adverse health events that may be related to infectious disease. Machine learning, specifically Random Forest analysis, was used to analyze the microbial and crew health datasets. The symptom categories were not explained by the ranked bacteria, due to lack of sufficient data for some categories and due to poor ranking of the pathogens for others. Poor ranking of the bacteria could be due to the clinical symptoms being linked to other disease-causing factors, such as allergy or viral infection. These findings suggest a lack of relationship between bacteria detected on surfaces in the ISS and historical health events experienced by astronauts.

Kristyn Hoffman↗
NASA NTRS2005

Faster Evolution of More Multifunctional Logic Circuits

A modification in a method of automated evolutionary synthesis of voltage-controlled multifunctional logic circuits makes it possible to synthesize more circuits in less time. Prior to the modification, the computations for synthesizing a four-function logic circuit by this method took about 10 hours. Using the method as modified, it is possible to synthesize a six-function circuit in less than half an hour. The concepts of automated evolutionary synthesis and voltage-controlled multifunctional logic circuits were described in a number of prior NASA Tech Briefs articles. To recapitulate: A circuit is designed to perform one of several different logic functions, depending on the value of an applied control voltage. The circuit design is synthesized following an automated evolutionary approach that is so named because it is modeled partly after the repetitive trial-and-error process of biological evolution. In this process, random populations of integer strings that encode electronic circuits play a role analogous to that of chromosomes. An evolved circuit is tested by computational simulation (prior to testing in real hardware to verify a final design). Then, in a fitness-evaluation step, responses of the circuit are compared with specifications of target responses and circuits are ranked according to how close they come to satisfying specifications. The results of the evaluation provide guidance for refining designs through further iteration.

Stoica, Adrian↗
NASA NTRS1989

An algorithm for the solution of dynamic linear programs

The algorithm's objective is to efficiently solve Dynamic Linear Programs (DLP) by taking advantage of their special staircase structure. This algorithm constitutes a stepping stone to an improved algorithm for solving Dynamic Quadratic Programs, which, in turn, would make the nonlinear programming method of Successive Quadratic Programs more practical for solving trajectory optimization problems. The ultimate goal is to being trajectory optimization solution speeds into the realm of real-time control. The algorithm exploits the staircase nature of the large constraint matrix of the equality-constrained DLPs encountered when solving inequality-constrained DLPs by an active set approach. A numerically-stable, staircase QL factorization of the staircase constraint matrix is carried out starting from its last rows and columns. The resulting recursion is like the time-varying Riccati equation from multi-stage LQR theory. The resulting factorization increases the efficiency of all of the typical LP solution operations over that of a dense matrix LP code. At the same time numerical stability is ensured. The algorithm also takes advantage of dynamic programming ideas about the cost-to-go by relaxing active pseudo constraints in a backwards sweeping process. This further decreases the cost per update of the LP rank-1 updating procedure, although it may result in more changes of the active set that if pseudo constraints were relaxed in a non-stagewise fashion. The usual stability of closed-loop Linear/Quadratic optimally-controlled systems, if it carries over to strictly linear cost functions, implies that the saving due to reduced factor update effort may outweigh the cost of an increased number of updates. An aerospace example is presented in which a ground-to-ground rocket's distance is maximized. This example demonstrates the applicability of this class of algorithms to aerospace guidance. It also sheds light on the efficacy of the proposed pseudo constraint relaxation scheme.

Psiaki, Mark L.↗
NASA NTRS1981

High temperature cyclic oxidation furnace testing at NASA Lewis Research Center

A standardized method of testing the cyclic oxidation resistance of various alloys in static air to 1200 C was developed and is routinely used at NASA Lewis Research Center. Test samples are automatically raised and lowered into a resistance wound furnace for a series of fixed interval heating and cooling cycles. Spall catchers collect the accumulated spall from each sample. The samples are weighed intermittently to generate specific weight change/time data. At various test times the samples and the accumulated spall are analyzed by X-ray diffraction. A computer program uses this gravimetric and X-ray data as input to print out the oxidation curves and specific weight change/time and X-ray results in a published format, organizes, and indexes the data. So far, several hundred Fe, Ni, and Co base alloys were tested using this same basic procedure and results form the basis of a series of cyclic oxidation handbooks to be published by NASA. Such specific weight change/time data were used to estimate the oxidative metal consumption by several computer modeling techniques to rank alloys and for use in life testing estimates.

Barrett, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Colonoscopy Screening in the US Astronaut Corps

BACKGROUND: Historically, colonoscopy screenings for astronauts have been conducted to ensure that astronauts are in good health for space missions. Recently this historical data has been identified as being useful for developing an occupational surveillance requirement. It can be used to assess overall colon health and to have a point of reference for future tests in current and former astronauts, as well as to follow-up and track rates of colorectal cancer and polyps. These rates can be compared to military and other terrestrial populations. In 2003, the active astronaut colonoscopy requirements changed to require less frequent colonoscopies. Since polyp removal during a colonoscopy is an intervention that prevents the polyp from potentially developing into cancer, the procedure decreases the individual's risk for colon cancer. The objective of this study is to evaluate the possible effect of increased follow-up times between colonoscopies on the number and severity of polyps identified during the procedures among both current and former NASA astronauts. Initial results and forward work regarding astronaut colonoscopy screenings will be presented. METHODS: A retrospective study of all colonoscopy procedures performed on NASA astronauts between 1962 and 2015 (both during active career and retirement) was conducted by review of the JSC Clinic Electronic Medical Record and Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) database for colonoscopy screening procedures and pathology reports. The timeframe of interest was from the time of selection into the Astronaut Corps through May 2015 or death. For each colonoscopy report, the following data were captured: date of procedure, age at time of procedure, reason for procedure, quality of bowel prep, completion of procedure and/or reason for termination of procedure, findings of procedure, subsequent treatment (if any), recommended follow-up interval, actual follow up interval, family history of polyps or colon cancer, and other significant items or discrepancies. The population consisted of 338 astronauts: 52 females, 286 males. Of these, 56 were deceased, and 11 astronauts had no record of any colonoscopies. Because of a screening requirement change in 2003, analyses were conducted to determine if there were differences between the two time periods. One-sided Wilcoxon rank sum tests were used to identify statistically significant differences between the two time periods. RESULTS: There was a combined total of 1,964 colonoscopy screenings identified. The average follow-up intervals between colonoscopies were indeed longer after the screening requirement change than before the change. The mean follow-up interval pre -2003 was 3.59 years, while post-2003 it increased to 4.35 years. The statistical significance of this difference was confirmed using a one sided Wilcoxon rank sum test which yielded p<.001. Colonoscopies performed after the requirement change tended to have a higher incidence and greater severity of polyps. From pre-2003 to post-2003 the percentage of colonoscopy procedures yielding no polyps decreased from 83.77% to 74.70%. Not only did post-2003 procedures yield more polyp findings, but the polyps recorded were more often of severe pathology. Before 2003 3.62% of colonoscopy findings were polyps of the hyperplastic type (the least severe polyp type) and only 3.35% were of greater severity. Post-2003, 4.21% of findings were hyperplastic polyps while 11.44% were of greater severity. Upon the investigation of other possible contributing factors to these results, we also found that mean age post-2003 was 54.55 years which was significantly higher than during the pre-2003 timeframe (47.32 years). This was observed with a one-sided Wilcoxon rank sum test, resulting in a p<0.001. The increased average age of astronauts could also be a contributing factor to the greater number of polyps found since the risk of developing polyps increases with age. Further work is needed to better understand the increased incidence and greater severity of polyps found in astronaut colonoscopy outcomes.

Masterova, K.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Machine Learning for the Prediction of Local Asteroid Damages

Risk assessment studies of local asteroid hazards traditionally simulate the physics of meteors with engineering models tailored to analyze tens-of-millions of scenarios. However, these simplified approaches still need to solve time-dependent ODEs to model the entry process and the resulting ground damage. With a computational cost of O(0.01 CPU.s) per scenario, simulating these large numbers of potential entry conditions in risk assessment studies can take several days on local computers. To improve computational efficiency, we propose in this paper an orthogonal approach based on machine learning models to predict the size of damaged areas given a list of entry parameters. We train 5 machine learning methods and compare the predictions to the outputs of the PAIR model, first only with primitive entry condition variables, and then with more advanced features. We find that complex models like neural networks are well-suited to estimate blast hazards, while simpler linear models can accurately assess thermal damage. For both types of hazards, the radii of damaged areas can be predicted with around 10% average errors and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99. The CPU time is decreased by a factor O(10 3 ) compared to the PAIR model, which enables the simulation of millions of scenarios in minutes, on a local computer. We then use the same machine learning approaches for a classification task where the models are trained to predict if an asteroid will produce a given level of damage. Results show that complex models like the gradient boosting classifier and the neural network can perform this task with 98% accuracy. Beyond surrogate models, we finally incorporate the machine learning algorithms to the state-of-the-art Shapley sensitivity analysis and present a ranking of the entry parameters based on their contributions to ground damages.

SMD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cleanroom Microbes Survive Drying, Vacuum, and Proton Irradiation

Introduction : The goal of planetary protection at NASA is to mitigate the risk of contaminating sensitive target bodies with biological life. While many cleaning procedures have been put in place to reduce bioburden on spacecraft, microbes are experts at evolving to survive harsh conditions. Specifically, the dry, low-nutrient environment of a cleanroom (commonly used for assembly of spacecraft) can represent an environment where extremophiles can survive. Methods : Scientists at NASA MSFC wished to gather a snapshot of the microbial population within a variety of cleanrooms on site. A study was undertaken to collect air, surface, and floor samples from clean-rooms and isolate unique morphologies. From this study, 95 isolates were collected and saved in a microbial library. About 86% of these were identified at least to a genus level. Following identification, 24 microbes were selected, based on a literature review, as potential extremophiles. These were grown in liquid cultures, diluted to a set optical density, washed with water, and then applied to a sterilized Kapton coupon. Droplets were allowed to dry overnight in a biosafety cabinet. Coupons were then installed in a pelletron and pumped down to high vacuum (~1E-6 Torr). Samples were then subjected 100 keV protons at a fluence of 2x10 15 p+/cm 2 up to 4x10 15 p+/cm 2 . Following exposure, samples were returned to the microbiology lab where they were pro-cessed by submerging in water, vortexing, and then plating either droplets or spread plates. Recovery data collected was qualitative with a ranking or +, minor, or – for growth. Some selected radiotolerant strains were sequenced using the Illumina sequencing platform. The resulting genomes were annotated with the Rapid Annotations using Subsystems Technology (RAST) server and analyzed for conserved and unique stress response relevant genomic signatures to identify clues related to specific tolerances. Results and Discussion : After five rounds of proton radiation, we narrowed our isolates to five, non-spore forming bacteria that demonstrated survival: Arthrobacter koreensis, Paenarthrobacter nitroguajacolicus, Mycetocola manganoxydans , and an Erwinia sp. Furthermore, we exposed these four microbes to 254 nm wavelength light at an intensity of 80 W/m 2 at a distance of ~18 cm for 10 minutes. Only A. koreensis demonstrated survival following UV exposure. Finally, we performed whole genome sequencing on the four strains to look for genetic markers of stress resistance. When we compared the genomes of the four strains, we found that genes coding for GGDEF and EAL domains with PAS/PAC sensors were only found in A. koreensis . These domains, modulated by PAS/PAC sensors, are hypothesized to facilitate survival under drying, desiccation, and proton irradiation. Drying and Desiccation : PAS domains sense hydration changes and modulate GGDEF and EAL domain activity to adjust c-di-GMP levels, enhancing resistance to desiccation. For instance, in Pseudomonas aeruginosa , the PAS domain of RbdA modulates activity under varying hydration conditions, affecting stress responses [1]. Proton Irradiation : Proton irradiation causes oxidative stress, leading to ROS generation. PAS domains detect this stress and modulate GGDEF and EAL domains to manage oxidative stress responses. In Shewanella , EAL domain proteins modulated by PAS sensors help bacteria adapt to extreme conditions [2]. These genes upregulate other stress response genes, protecting membrane function, protein stability, DNA repair, and antioxidant defenses. The modulation of c-di-GMP by PAS domains is crucial for bacterial adaptation to stress conditions, enabling dynamic physio-logical adjustments [3]. Understanding these mechanisms provides insights into bacterial stress responses and strategies for controlling bacterial growth [4]. Conclusions : These findings indicate that clean-rooms harbor extremophile microbes that may be able to survive conditions in deep space. Furthermore, while we identified certain stress-response genes that may be at least partly responsible for the phenotypes observed in this study, there are likely unidentified genes or characteristics about A. koreensis , and other bacteria, that may allow them to survive in harsh environments. Future studies will focus on identifying these unknown genes and characteristics, further elucidating the mechanisms of extremophile survival and potentially informing the development of new biotechnologies for space exploration and other extreme environments.

Chelsi Cassilly↗
NASA NTRS1981

High temperature cyclic oxidation furnace testing at NASA Lewis Research Center

A standardized method of testing the cyclic oxidation resistance of various alloys in static air up to 1200 C has been developed and routinely used at the NASA Lewis Research Center. Test samples are automatically raised and lowered into a resistance wound furnace for a series of fixed-interval heating and cooling cycles. Spall catchers collect the accumulated spall from each sample. The samples are weighed intermittently to generate specific weight change with time data. At various test times the samples and the accumulated spall are analyzed by X-ray diffraction. A computer program is used to print out the specific weight change versus time data and the X-ray data in tabular form and to plot the specific weight change versus time data in a publishable format. The data are also organized and indexed. So far several hundred Fe-, Ni-, and Co-base alloys have been tested using this basic procedure and will form the basis of a series of cyclic oxidation handbooks to be published by NASA. Such specific weight change/time data have been used to estimate the oxidative metal consumption by several computer modeling techniques both to rank alloys and to estimate life.

Barrett, C. A.↗