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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Assay-based background projection for the Majorana Demonstrator using Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation

The background index (BI) is an important quantity to project and calculate the half-life sensitivity of neutrinoless double-𝛽 decay (0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽) experiments. An analysis framework is presented to calculate the BI using the specific activities, masses, and simulated efficiencies of an experiments components as distributions. This Bayesian framework includes a unified approach to combine specific activities from assay. Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation is used to build a BI distribution from the specific activity, mass, and efficiency distributions. This method is applied to the M AJORANA D EMONSTRATOR , which deployed arrays of high-purity Ge detectors enriched in 76 Ge to search for 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽. The original assay-based projection is requantified in the new framework, using the as-built geometry of the Demonstrator and additional assay information. While 47% higher than the original projection, the resulting BI of [8.95±0.36]×10 −4 cts/(keVkgyr) from the 232 Th and 238 U decay chains does not account for the higher-than-expected BI observed by the D EMONSTRATOR . Finally, this method enables us to demonstrate the statistical incompatibility between the D EMONSTRATOR 's observed background and the assay results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamical Large Deviations of Two-Dimensional Kinetically Constrained Models Using a Neural-Network State Ansatz

We use a neural-network ansatz originally designed for the variational optimization of quantum systems to study dynamical large deviations in classical ones. We use recurrent neural networks to describe the large deviations of the dynamical activity of model glasses, kinetically constrained models in two dimensions. We present the first finite size-scaling analysis of the large-deviation functions of the two-dimensional Fredrickson-Andersen model, and explore the spatial structure of the high-activity sector of the South-or-East model. These results provide a new route to the study of dynamical large-deviation functions, and highlight the broad applicability of the neural-network state ansatz across domains in physics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

First Observation of the β3αp Decay of 13 O via β-Delayed Charged-Particle Spectroscopy

The β-delayed proton decay of 13 O has previously been studied, but the direct observation of β-delayed 3⁢α⁢p decay has not been reported. Rare 3⁢α⁢p events from the decay of excited states in 13 N* provide a sensitive probe of cluster configurations in 13 N*. To measure the low-energy products following β-delayed 3⁢αp decay, the Texas Active Target (TexAT) time projection chamber was employed using the one-at-a-time β-delayed charged-particle spectroscopy technique at the Cyclotron Institute, Texas A&M University. A total of 1.9 × 10 5 13 O implantations were made inside the TexAT time projection chamber. Furthermore, a total of 149 3⁢αp events were observed, yielding a β-delayed 3⁢αp branching ratio of 0.078(6)%. Four previously unknown α-decaying excited states were observed in 13 N at 11.3, 12.4, 13.1, and 13.7 MeV decaying via the 3⁢α + p channel.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low-Energy Backgrounds in Solid-State Phonon and Charge Detectors

Solid-state phonon and charge detectors probe the scattering of weakly interacting particles, such as dark matter and neutrinos, through their low recoil thresholds. Recent advancements have pushed sensitivity to eV-scale energy depositions, uncovering previously unseen low-energy excess backgrounds. While some arise from known processes such as thermal radiation, luminescence, and stress, others remain unexplained. This review examines these backgrounds, their possible origins, and parallels to low-energy effects in solids, an understanding of which is essential for interpreting particle interactions at and below the eV scale.

coherent neutrino–nucleus scattering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Array-Based Seismic Measurements of OSIRIS-REx’s Re-Entry

The return home of the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft in September 2023 marked only the fifth time that an artificial object entered the Earth’s atmosphere at interplanetary velocities. Although rare, such events serve as valuable analogs for natural meteoroid re-entries; enabling study of hypersonic dynamics, shock wave generation, and acoustic-to-seismic coupling. Here, in this study, we report on the signatures recorded by a dense (100 m scale) 11-station array located almost directly underneath the capsule’s point of peak atmospheric heating in northern Nevada. Seismic data are presented, which allow inferences to be made about the shape of the shock wave’s footprint on the surface, the capsule’s trajectory, and its flight parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45–52 °N, 119–123 °W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 °C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850–1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 °C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 °C of global warming (0.8 °C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of weather and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising from different combinations of climate variables across space and time, here we illustrate that robust analyses of compound events — such as frequency and uncertainty analysis under present-day and future conditions, event attribution to climate change, and exploration of low-probability-high-impact events — require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required sample is much larger than that needed for analyses of univariate extremes. We demonstrate that Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations from multiple climate models, which provide hundreds to thousands of years of weather conditions, are crucial for advancing our assessments of compound events and constructing robust model projections. Combining SMILEs with an improved physical understanding of compound events will ultimately provide practitioners and stakeholders with the best available information on climate risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Kangaroo’s First Hop: The Early Fast Cooling Phase of EP250108a/SN 2025kg

Fast X-ray transients are a rare and poorly understood population of events. Previously difficult to detect in real time, the launch of the Einstein Probe with its Wide-field X-ray Telescope has led to a rapid expansionof the sample and allowed the exploration of these transients across the electromagnetic spectrum. EP250108a is a recently detected example linked to an optical counterpart, SN 2025kg, or “the kangaroo.” Together with a companion Letter we present our observing campaign and analysis of this event. In this letter, we focus on the early evolution of the optical counterpart over the first 6 days, including our measurement of the redshift of z = 0.17641. We compare to other supernovae and fast transients showing similar features, finding significant similarities with SN 2006aj and SN 2020bvc, and show that the source is well modelled by a rapidly expanding cooling blackbody. We show the observed X-ray and radio properties are consistent with a collapsar-powered jet that is low energy (≲10 51 erg) and/or fails to break out of the dense material surrounding it. While we examine the possibility that the optical emission emerges from the shock produced as the supernova ejecta expand into a dense shell of circumstellar material, due to our X-ray and radio inferences, we favour a model where it arises from a shocked cocoon resulting from a trapped jet. This makes SN 2025 one of the few examples of this currently observationally rare event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grid resolution requirement for resolving rare and high intensity wall-shear stress events in direct numerical simulations

Turbulent signals are intermittent with large instantaneous fluctuations. Such large fluctuations lead to small Kolmogorov scales that are hard to resolve in numerical simulations [P. K. Yeung, K. R. Sreenivasan, and S. B. Pope, Effects of finite spatial and temporal resolution in direct numerical simulations of incompressible isotropic turbulence, Phys. Rev. Fluids 3, 064603 (2018)]. Here, the present paper follows the above basic logic, but instead of dissipation events in isotropic turbulence, we study wall-shear stress events in plane channel flow. Wall-shear stress fluctuations are increasingly more intermittent as the Reynolds number increases. Hence, one has to employ higher grid resolutions as the Reynolds number increases in order to resolve a given percentage of wall-shear stress events. The objective of this paper is to quantify effects of the grid resolutions on the rare and high intensity wall-shear stress events. We find that the standard grid resolution resolves about 99% of the wall-shear stress events at Re τ = 180. A slightly higher grid resolution has to be employed in order to resolve 99% of the wall-shear stress events at higher Reynolds numbers, and if the standard grid resolution is used for, e.g., a Re τ = 10000 channel flow, one resolves about 90%–95% wall-shear stress events.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards a Robust Sampling Approach: A Computational Review and Design

As pointed out in several other works, the estimation of the reliability of the electrical grid can not be conducted without the estimation of the stochastic phenomena of electicity demand and electricity production by variable renewable sources. Therefore, sampling procedures have become integral in the design of engineering structures and analysis. Commonly referred to as Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis or integration, the general objective of these procedures is to establish specifics about the uncertainty of an output characteristic of such an engineering system, given uncertainty about its input characteristics. These sampling procedures are applied in a context in which establishing such specifics cannot be performed through other means. Variance-reduction techniques are designed to lessen the variability among estimators to estimate statistics of those output uncertainties. Importance-sampling techniques, on the other hand, are designed to reduce the number of samples needed to estimate a particular statistic—e.g., a tail probability. The combination of these approaches can reduce the computational burden considerably for a particular estimator and statistic. Importance sampling—geared and designed as it is toward improving a particular estimator—suffers, unfortunately, from the unintended consequence of reducing the performance of other estimators in terms of their variance. The objective of this paper is to offer an alternative sampling procedure where this variance does not grow unacceptably large for a suite of estimators. Moreover, it is anticipated that, with additional knowledge of how an engineering output characteristic responds to its input characteristics, tuning parameters of the input’s sampling procedure can be set to improve the output characteristic’s estimation. This work proves the effectiveness of the suggested alternative approach. Such positive outcome will lead to a decrease of the computational burden of performing stochastic optimization of integrated energy systems (e.g., components dispatch, and portfolio composition). In particular, capturing the contribution to the overall system cost of rare and unlikely events and patterns of the electricity demand and production will become less computationally expensive. This is due to the fact that the approach demonstrated here will allow the sampling of those rare occurrences more frequently without misrepresenting their probabilistic impacts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Counter Data Paucity through Adversarial Invariance Encoding: A Case Study on Modeling Battery Thermal Runaway

Lithium-ion batteries, widely used for their durability and high energy storage, face the risk of internal short circuits leading to catastrophic thermal runaway events. These events, triggered by external stimuli like mechanical loads, pose safety concerns in applications such as electric vehicles. Detecting and understanding thermal runaway events is crucial, but physics-driven models struggle to explain the non-linear evolution of battery temperature during these events, considering factors like material composition and state-of-charge. Due to the rarity of these events and the cost of data collection, we propose a deep learning (DL) model to predict battery temperature responses during thermal runaway. The challenge lies in the scarcity of data, making traditional DL models prone to overfitting and learning low-quality representations of the complex process.Our approach introduces a novel few-shot architecture that incorporates an adversarially governed invariant encoding process. This architecture aims to distill "invariant" relationships by addressing distributional shifts in data across various battery properties, facilitating the detection of thermal runaway events. Specifically, our results demonstrate that deep learning models conditioned on these "invariant" representations outperform state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a remarkable 96.8% performance improvement in terms of the popular metric MAPE. This framework presents a promising direction for enhancing battery safety modeling, particularly in the context of rare and complex events like thermal runaway. Our code and code and dataset used for the paper are public1.

Tabassum, Anika [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000254600955)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for NC Delta Radiative Decay Single Photon Events In MicroBooNE

MicroBooNE, a liquid argon time projection chamber at Fermilab, is investigating the MiniBooNE anomaly, which consists of an excess of low-energy electromagnetic showers in a neutrino beam. Recent results from MicroBooNE have ruled out a 3+1 sterile neutrino explanation of the anomaly, leaving the single photon-like explanation as the most likely possibility. In this poster, we describe results of a new expanded search for the neutral current Delta radiative decay topology, a rare type of event which is by far the largest expected source of neutrino-induced single photons. Using two different reconstruction paradigms simultaneously, we study in detail events both with and without visible hadronic activity; either category of event could explain the MiniBooNE anomaly, but the two could have very different implications for underlying physics. We find that events with visible protons are excluded as an explanation of the MiniBooNE anomaly, but events without visible protons remain a possible explanation requiring further study.

Hagaman, Lee [Nevis Labs, Columbia U.] (ORCID:0000↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and code for Daily and Multi-Day Extreme Rainfall Analysis Under Future Climates Using Stochastic Storm Transposition and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Over CONUS

This data package provides inputs, codes, and outputs for a comprehensive analysis of projected changes in extreme precipitation across 10 regions of the continental United States, using 34 downscaled Earth System Models (ESMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset. These models are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a coordinated climate modeling framework widely used to assess climate change impacts. The analysis applies a stochastic storm transposition method to quantify changes in extreme rainfall under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios—SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions)—compared to historical conditions (1995–2014 vs. 2081–2100). The dataset includes rainfall depth estimates for extreme events with return periods from 2 to 500 years across multiple storm durations (1, 3, and 5 days) for each of the 10 U.S. regions. Weighted ensemble statistics are derived from individual ESM performance against historical precipitation patterns, enabling robust uncertainty quantification through both sign-based and permutation-test-based model agreement assessments. Key analyses address: (1) relative changes in extreme precipitation for each climate scenario, (2) differences between SSP scenarios (SSP5-8.5 vs. SSP2-4.5), (3) contrasts between rare and frequent events, and (4) variations between multi-day and daily storm durations. The workflow produces ensemble statistics—median, 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles—along with model agreement metrics that identify regions and event types with robust climate change signals. The dataset includes: processed rainfall depth outputs (netCDF format) from the RainyDay Python package, ESM weights from historical performance evaluation using DayMet observations, ensemble statistics across all storm dimensions, and figures summarizing key findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Multimodal Event Catalog and Waveform Data Set That Supports Explosion Monitoring from Nevada, U.S.A.

Multimodal, curated data sets and nuisance event catalogs remain rare in the explosion monitoring community relative to curated seismic data sets. The source of this relative absence is the difficultly in deploying multimodal receivers that sense the seismic, acoustic, and other modalities from multiphysics sources. We provide such a data set in this study that delivers seismic, infrasound, and electromagnetic (magnetometer) sensor records collected over a two–week period, within 255 km of a 10 ton buried chemical explosion called DAG–4 that was located at 37.1146°, –116.0693° on 22 June 2019 21:06:19.88 UTC. This catalog includes 485 seismic, seismoacoustic, and infrasound–only events that an expert analyst manually built by reviewing waveforms from 29 seismic and infrasound sensors. Our data release includes waveforms from these 29 seismic, infrasound, and seismoacoustic stations and two magnetometer stations and their station metadata. We deliver these waveforms in NNSA KB Core CSS.w format (i4) with a corresponding wfdisc table that provides the header information. Here, we expect that this data set will provide a valuable, benchmark resource to develop signal processing algorithms and explosion monitoring methods against manual, human observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Loosely Conditioned Emulation of Global Climate Models With Generative Adversarial Networks

Climate models encapsulate our best understanding of the Earth system, allowing research to be conducted on its future under alternative assumptions of how human-driven climate forces are going to evolve. An important application of climate models is to provide metrics of mean and extreme climate changes, particularly under these alternative future scenarios, as these quantities drive the impacts of climate on society and natural systems. Because of the need to explore a wide range of alternative scenarios and other sources of uncertainties in a computationally efficient manner, climate models can only take us so far, as they require significant computational resources, especially when attempting to characterize extreme events, which are rare and thus demand long and numerous simulations in order to accurately represent their changing statistics. Here we use deep learning in a proof of concept that lays the foundation for emulating global climate model output for different scenarios. We train two "loosely conditioned" Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) that emulate daily precipitation output from a fully coupled Earth system model: one GAN modeling Fall-Winter behavior and the other Spring-Summer. Our GANs are trained to produce spatiotemporal samples: 32 days of precipitation over a 64x128 regular grid discretizing the globe. We evaluate the generator with a set of related performance metrics based upon KL divergence, and find the generated samples to be nearly as well matched to the test data as the validation data is to test. We also find the generated samples to accurately estimate the mean number of dry days and mean longest dry spell in the 32 day samples. Our trained GANs can rapidly generate numerous realizations at a vastly reduced computational expense, compared to large ensembles of climate models, which greatly aids in estimating the statistics of extreme events.

climate emulation, extreme climate, impacts, machi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven prediction of α IIb β 3 integrin activation paths using manifold learning and deep generative modeling

The integrin heterodimer is a transmembrane protein critical for driving cellular process and is a therapeutic target in the treatment of multiple diseases linked to its malfunction. Activation of integrin involves conformational transitions between bent and extended states. Some of the conformations that are intermediate between bent and extended states of the heterodimer have been experimentally characterized, but the full activation pathways remain unresolved both experimentally due to their transient nature and computationally due to the challenges in simulating rare barrier crossing events in these large molecular systems. An understanding of the activation pathways can provide new fundamental understanding of the biophysical processes associated with the dynamic interconversions between bent and extended states and unveil new putative therapeutic targets. In this work, we apply nonlinear manifold learning to coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations of bent, extended, and two intermediate states of αI I b β3 integrin to learn a low-dimensional embedding of the configurational phase space. We then train deep generative models to learn an inverse mapping between the low-dimensional embedding and high-dimensional molecular space and use these models to interpolate the molecular configurations constituting the activation pathways between the experimentally characterized states. Furthermore, this work furnishes plausible predictions of integrin activation pathways and reports a generic and transferable multi-scale technique to predict transition pathways for biomolecular systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of unirradiated and irradiated AGR-2 TRISO fuel particle oxidation response

The silicon carbide (SiC) coating in a tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle acts as a barrier to fission product release during reactor operation and accident scenarios. Oxidation and subsequent failure of the SiC layer during a rare air ingress event is a proposed mechanism for fission product release in a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). Although previous oxidation studies have analyzed unirradiated TRISO particle response, this study compared the oxidation behavior of irradiated and unirradiated TRISO particles from the second Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program irradiation experiment (AGR-2). Particles with exposed SiC were subjected to six varying oxidizing tests in the Furnace for Irradiated TRISO Testing (FITT), examined for failure fraction with the Irradiated Microsphere Gamma Analyzer (IMGA) and characterized with focused ion beam and scanning/transmission electron microscopy techniques to analyze the oxide layer. Uncorrelated unirradiated particle failures throughout the series of exposures suggests that external factors inherent to the experiment increased particle failure sensitivity. However, irradiated particle observations indicated an increased failure response at 400 h 1400 °C in both 2% and 21% O 2 atmospheres above failure associated with external factors. Oxide thickness measurements after 400 h at 1400 °C revealed a greater oxidation rate than predicted by parabolic growth, which was attributed to the increased complexity of the oxide structure at longer exposure times. Altering the atmosphere from 21% to 2% O 2 reduced the average oxide thickness by approximately 12%–14% in both irradiated and unirradiated particles at 400 h 1400 °C. Altogether, the minor variations observed between irradiated and unirradiated particles in this study led to the conclusion that unirradiated TRISO particles can be used to approximate irradiated TRISO oxidation kinetics.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ultra long-term cosmology and astrophysics

In this work, we examine astronomical observations that would be achievable over a future timeline corresponding to the documented history of human civilization so far, ~ 10 4 years. We examine implications for measurements of the redshift drift, evolution of the CMB, and cosmic parallax. A number of events that are rare on the scale of centuries will become easily observable on a timescale ~ 10 4 years. Implications for several measurements related to gravity are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗