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At least 271 records · Page 15

A Bayesian Machine Learning Model for Estimating Building Occupancy from Open Source Data

Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian based informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000ft2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian model and informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000 ft 2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Projection Microstereolithography for Architected Materials

Stereolithography (SL) is a prominent paradigm in the realm of additive manufacturing (AM) technologies, which refers to fabrication approaches that build “bottom up” by adding material. Pioneered in 1984 by Chuck Hull, SL relies on light-activated solidification of a liquid photosensitive resin in a layer-by-layer fashion, with the geometry of each layer defined by sectioning a three-dimensional (3D) computer model by closely-spaced parallel planes. The maturation of the technology over nearly three subsequent decades has resulted in the wide availability of commercial SL products, such as the ProJet series from 3D Systems, Inc. (which uses the proprietary acronym SLA to refer to SL technology), which routinely produces parts with 50-100 µm resolution in all three axes, and overall dimensions of 0.25-0.5 m. In the most general terms, advancements in SL technology have generally been aimed at achieving four goals: decreasing (1) system cost and (2) minimum feature size (i.e. improving resolution), while (3) increasing overall part size and (4) build speed. SL systems can be broadly categorized into two classes, by the way in which they deliver illumination to produce the shape of each object layer to be fabricated: laser-scanning and mask projection approaches. Commercially-available SL systems incorporate the laser-scanning approach, following the original scheme described by Hull, since digital image projection technology has only emerged relatively recently as a viable alternative. A significant limitation of laser scanning is the relatively slow speed of rastering the laser to form each layer’s pattern, highlighting the need for a dynamic mask-based approach to polymerize larger areas in a single exposure. The recent proliferation of digital display technologies (referred to as spatial light modulators or SLMs) has enabled the implementation of such “dynamic masking,” increasing system throughput by allowing a complete image layer to be cross-linked simultaneously. These mask projection SL systems are gaining greater prominence, and the landscape of some of the parameters available for system design, as implemented in recent work by a variety of investigators, has been reviewed by Lambert et al.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Sim-SEQ Project: Comparison of Selected Flow Models for the S-3 Site

Sim-SEQ is an international initiative on model comparison for geologic carbon sequestration, with an objective to understand and, if possible, quantify model uncertainties. Model comparison efforts in Sim-SEQ are at present focusing on one specific field test site, hereafter referred to as the Sim-SEQ Study site (or S-3 site). Within Sim-SEQ, different modeling teams are developing conceptual models of CO2 injection at the S-3 site. In this paper, we select five flow models of the S-3 site and provide a qualitative comparison of their attributes and predictions. These models are based on five different simulators or modeling approaches: TOUGH2/EOS7C, STOMP-CO2e, MoReS, TOUGH2-MP/ECO2N, and VESA. In addition to model-to-model comparison, we perform a limited model-to-data comparison, and illustrate how model choices impact model predictions. We conclude the paper by making recommendations for model refinement that are likely to result in less uncertainty in model predictions.

Carbon sequestration↗

An incompressible Eulerian method for fluid–structure interaction with mixed soft and rigid solids

Here, we present a general simulation approach for incompressible fluid–structure interactions in a fully Eulerian framework using the reference map technique. The approach is suitable for modeling one or more rigid or finitely deformable objects or soft objects with rigid components interacting with the fluid and with each other. It is also extended to control the kinematics of structures in fluids. The model is based on our previous Eulerian fluid–soft solver [Rycroft et al., “Reference map technique for incompressible fluid–structure interaction,” J. Fluid Mech. 898, A9 (2020)] and generalized to rigid structures by constraining the deformation-rate tensor in a projection framework. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the capability of the method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Self-consistent redshift estimation using correlation functions without a spectroscopic reference sample

ABSTRACT We present a new method to estimate redshift distributions and galaxy-dark matter bias parameters using correlation functions in a fully data driven and self-consistent manner. Unlike other machine learning, template, or correlation redshift methods, this approach does not require a reference sample with known redshifts. By measuring the projected cross- and auto-correlations of different galaxy sub-samples, e.g. as chosen by simple cells in colour–magnitude space, we are able to estimate the galaxy-dark matter bias model parameters, and the shape of the redshift distributions of each sub-sample. This method fully marginalizes over a flexible parametrization of the redshift distribution and galaxy-dark matter bias parameters of sub-samples of galaxies, and thus provides a general Bayesian framework to incorporate redshift uncertainty into the cosmological analysis in a data-driven, consistent, and reproducible manner. This result is improved by an order of magnitude by including cross-correlations with the cosmic microwave background and with galaxy–galaxy lensing. We showcase how this method could be applied to real galaxies. By using idealized data vectors, in which all galaxy-dark matter model parameters and redshift distributions are known, this method is demonstrated to recover unbiased estimates on important quantities, such as the offset Δz between the mean of the true and estimated redshift distribution and the 68 per cent, 95 per cent, and 99.5 per cent widths of the redshift distribution to an accuracy required by current and future surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Binary pseudo-random array standard for extreme ultraviolet lithography tool characterization

Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) imaging tools play a crucial role in EUV lithography. Achieving high accuracy in EUV metrology is essential for advanced semiconductor manufacturing. A thorough characterization of the instrumentation in use is required. Binary pseudo-random arrays (BPRAs) are an established standard for calibrating and characterizing optical instruments in the frequency domain. Here, we expand the BPRA standard to applications in EUV imaging. To extend the technology to the EUV spectral range, a high-resolution BPRA target with the smallest feature size of 40 nm is developed. The EUV BPRA target establishes an in situ and portable calibration and alignment standard for EUV imaging. The target is patterned by means of electron-beam lithography, using a nickel absorber with a thickness of 39 nm. The substrate is a 4″ silicon wafer with a molybdenum/silicon multilayer coating. To demonstrate the efficacy of the target and develop the instrument calibration protocol, the target is imaged on the Sharp Hyper-NA Actinic Reticle Review Project EUV mask microscope. Power spectral density (PSD) data are presented. The characteristics of the imaging system are imprinted on the PSD. The modulation transfer function is extracted from the PSD data. A partially coherent imaging model is used as a reference to the experimental results.

BPRA↗

Report on High-Fidelity Dynamic Modeling of a Coal-Fired Steam Power Plant

As a result of the growth of renewables including solar and wind energy with fluctuating production, fossil fuel power plants are being required to cycle between high and low power production. This cycling is both at a greater frequency and over a wider range than in the past. In many cases, power plants are not designed for this type of cycling operation but can nonetheless endure these challenging operation requirements under the right conditions. In this project, optimal solution for enhanced flexible operations are being investigated using model based estimation and control techniques. To support the development of model-based estimator and model-based controls at GE Global Research, GE Steam Power configured a dynamic model using a reference steam plant design including the boiler, turbine, and water/steam conditioning systems as well as the controls needed for plant cycling with stability and reliability. The dynamic model was built using the APROS® software from VTT, and then calibrated to multiple load conditions from full load (100%TMCR) to partial loads (75%TMCR, 50%TMCR and 25%TMCR) based on internally developed steady state heat balance models at the unit level. These internal heat balance models are based on first principles and extensive engineering experiences from GE Steam Power as an OEM and a services provider. This topical report presents the structure of the unit level dynamic model, the tuning process, and representative simulation results from typical load cycling simulations using the dynamic model.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study

To better understand distributed wind opportunities in the United States, researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory explored cost, performance, and valuation benchmarks necessary for distributed wind to achieve widespread commercial viability in the United States by 2035. Building on DOE's prior benchmark report "Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects", the new Distributed Wind Futures Study employs higher-resolution data and new modeling techniques to highlight geographic trends in technical and economic potential and to compare the cost and performance of distribution-connected, megawatt-scale wind applications (referred to as "front-of-the-meter" applications) and behind-the-meter systems, thereby informing the case for investment. The report identifies the best locations and sectors for behind-the-meter and front-of-the-meter applications and provides data to inform the trade-offs consumers face when deciding between distributed wind and solar photovoltaic (PV).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study [Slides]

To better understand distributed wind opportunities in the United States, researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory explored cost, performance, and valuation benchmarks necessary for distributed wind to achieve widespread commercial viability in the United States by 2035. Building on DOE's prior benchmark report "Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects", the new Distributed Wind Futures Study employs higher-resolution data and new modeling techniques to highlight geographic trends in technical and economic potential and to compare the cost and performance of distribution-connected, megawatt-scale wind applications (referred to as "front-of-the-meter" applications) and behind-the-meter systems, thereby informing the case for investment. The report identifies the best locations and sectors for behind-the-meter and front-of-the-meter applications and provides data to inform the trade-offs consumers face when deciding between distributed wind and solar photovoltaic (PV).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Regulatory Testing of WTP HL W Glasses for Compliance with Delisting Requirements, VSL-03R3780-1, Rev. 1

(Part of the data collected for this work and discussed in this report was subject to data quality and bias issues. All the affected tests have subsequently been repeated, as directed by the Waste Treatment Plant Project, and new statistical analyses have been performed on the revised data set. A subsequently-issued report supercedes this report and describes the revised data, together with the revised composition-property models (Kot et al. 2004). The reader should refer to the new report for discussion of the revised data set and composition-property (TCLP cadmium release) models. None of the data for the spike glasses, designed for Case 1 and Case 2 COPCs testing, were affected by this issue.)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Definition of the IEA Wind 22-Megawatt Offshore Reference Wind Turbine

This technical report describes the design of a new 22 Megawatt reference wind turbine (RWT). The turbine model was designed collaboratively by two teams at the Denmark Technical University and at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory within the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Technology Commercialization Programme (TCP) Task 55 on Reference Wind Turbines and Farms. RWTs serve an important purpose in the wind energy community, since they provide openly available data for models representative of current wind turbine technology, which can be used by practitioners for a variety of modeling purposes, ranging from aerodynamic, structural, and aeroelastic turbine modeling to wind farm flow modeling, across a range of fidelities. The IEA 22 RWT aims to model machines with projected installation in the 2025-2030 time frame. The turbine has a rotor diameter of 284 meters and a hub height of 170 meters. It is a class 1-B machine with a rotor specific power nearing 350 W m -2 and it is mounted on either a fixed-bottom offshore foundation or a semi-submersible floating platform.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Towards Energy-Positive Buildings through a Quality-Matched Energy Flow Strategy

Current strategies for net-zero buildings favor envelopes with minimized aperture ratios and limiting of solar gains through reduced glazing transmittance and emissivity. This load-reduction approach precludes strategies that maximize on-site collection of solar energy, which could increase opportunities for net-zero electricity projects. To better leverage solar resources, a whole-building strategy is proposed, referred to as “Quality-Matched Energy Flows” (or Q-MEF): capturing, transforming, buffering, and transferring irradiance on a building’s envelope—and energy derived from it—into distributed end-uses. A mid-scale commercial building was modeled in three climates with a novel Building-Integrated, Transparent, Concentrating Photovoltaic and Thermal fenestration technology (BITCoPT), thermal storage and circulation at three temperature ranges, adsorption chillers, and auxiliary heat pumps. BITCoPT generated electricity and collected thermal energy at high efficiencies while transmitting diffuse light and mitigating excess gains and illuminance. The balance of systems satisfied cooling and heating demands. Relative to baselines with similar glazing ratios, net electricity use decreased 71% in a continental climate and 100% or more in hot-arid and subtropical-moderate climates. Total EUI decreased 35%, 83%, and 52%, and peak purchased electrical demands decreased up to 6%, 32%, and 20%, respectively (with no provisions for on-site electrical storage). Decreases in utility services costs were also noted. These results suggest that with further development of electrification the Q-MEF strategy could contribute to energy-positive behavior for projects with similar typology and climate profiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Milestones for Selection, Characterization, and Analysis of the Performance of a Repository for Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste at Yucca Mountain.

This report presents a concise history in tabular form of events leading up to site identification in 1978, site selection in 1987, subsequent characterization, and ongoing analysis through 2009 of the performance of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high - level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain in southern Nevada. The tabulated events generally occurred in five periods: (1) commitment to mined geologic disposal and identification of sites; (2) site selection and analysis, based on regional geologic characterization through literature and analogous data; (3) feasibility analysis demonstrating calculation procedures and importance of system components, based on rough measures of performance using surface exploration, waste process knowledge, and general laboratory experiments; (4) suitability analysis demonstrating viability of disposal system, based on environment - specific laboratory experiments, in - situ experiments, and underground disposal system characterization; and (5) compliance analysis, based on completed site - specific characterization . The current sixth period beyond 2010 represents a new effort to set waste management policy in the United States. Because the relationship is important to understanding the evolution of the Yucca Mountain Project , the tabulation also shows the interaction between the policy realm and technical realm using four broad categories of events : (a) Regulatory requirements and related federal policy in laws and court decisions, (c) Presidential and agency directives, (c) technical milestones of implementing institutions, and (d) critiques of the Yucca Mountain Project and pertinent national and world events related to nuclear energy and radioactive waste. Preface The historical progression of technical milestones for the Yucca Mountain Project was originally developed for 10 journal articles in a special issue of Reliability Engineering System Safety on the performance assessment for the Yucca Mountain license application [1-10]. The listing of mile stones, a distinct feature of those articles, has been collected and tabulated here. A lthough a brief description is presented here (based on the summaries in the 10 journal articles), the emphasis remains on the tabulation because of its usefulness in providing a comprehensive but concise history of the Yucca Mountain Project. The tabulation presented here is more elaborate than originally presented in that many of the interactions that occurred between the technical realm and policy realm can be depicted in separate columns. The usefulness of the milestones table is due in part to L.A. Connolly, for editorial and reference support, and S.K. Best, Raytheon, and L. Mays, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), for illustration support. Reviewers P.N. Swift, SNL, and K. Gupta, University of Oklahoma, helped improve the discussion. The historical perspective presented is that of the author and is not necessarily held by reviewers, Sandia National Laboratories , and the US Department of Energy. As a historic perspective, the author is reporting on the work of others; however, any interpretative error s of the documentation are those of the author alone. The characterization and modeling of the Yucca Mountain disposal system required numerous participants with expertise in many areas of science and technology, as evident from the extensive reference list. Their diligent efforts are generally acknowledged here and through the many references to their impressive work, but the 10 journal articles acknowledge by name many of the numerous participants that contributed to the Yucca Mountain Project .

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Building the Scale Model TELBOT Master Arm - 19585

For centuries, the art and science of modeling have gone hand in hand with the advancements of technology. Among the most impressive examples of the past modeling were ship models constructed for the British Royal Navy. Referred to as Admiralty models, they were principally constructed during the 18. and 19. centuries to depict proposed warship design. To this day, models are important in the field of engineering, where analytical modeling of a new design needs to be verified. In our project the old practice of building models will be fortified by the most advanced software and 3-D printing technology and used to manufacture a fully working Telbot Master Arm scaled down to 0.4-0.5 of its original size. The Telbot is a robotic arm used in different fields like the nuclear and chemical industry, often in combination with other products of our company. The main features of the Telbot's sleek construction are: 1) the high load capacity design; 2) unlimited rotation of all axes; 3) no external or internal wiring of the arm; 4) unlimited, fast and precise arm movements; 5) smooth and sealed arm bodies and joints; 6) high repeat accuracy; 7) resistance to radiation, and it can handle precise loads from 5 kg to 150 kg. Presently, to demonstrate such impressive design features and movement possibilities to its customers, HWM has to build a 3-D virtual reality simulation of the environment where Telbot is proposed to be used and then the arm simulates its movement in this environment. In addition, though HWM does have a showroom for Telbot, due to its weight and size it is not possible to take the full size Telbot on the road to show off its capabilities to customers. The challenge is to build a scaled down full working version of the Telbot robotic arm that can be moved in every direction and angle. The model will be based on the redeveloped T300 Telbot, with 3 joints and 7 free to move pivots. It will be at a 0.4 or 0.5 scale. The outer shell will be 3D printed. The sensors will forward the position and angle to HWM virtual reality software. With these features, any changes made on the model would get displayed in the software one-to-one. The result will be a Telbot Master arm model which can be easily transported; Waellischmiller would be able to present the Telbot not just virtually, but as a real product with all its functions and versatility and show it all over the world. The extensive construction of the virtual 3-D stimulation can be eliminated and the course of movement to reach specific positions could get simulated faster and easier. It can also be used internally and externally for training. This paper will address the challenges, materials used and manufacturing process of building a fully-working scaled-down version of the Telbot Master Arm. (authors)

3D PRINTING↗

Investigation of the Reactor Antineutrino Anomaly with CeLAND (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this project has been to investigate reactor antineutrino anomaly by searching for the oscillation signature of the hypothesized 4th neutrino flavor. The 4th neutrino flavor is often referred to as sterile, not interacting with matter and can be only observed via disappearance of standard model neutrino flavors. It is also anticipated to be heavy and therefore disappearance due to sterile neutrino oscillations is expected to happen within few meters from the neutrino source. As such, the effect can be investigated with either reactor antineutrinos few meters from the reactor core or with the dedicated strong antineutrino source close to a large liquid scintillator detector to detect antineutrinos coming from the source.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Design Methods, Tools, and Data for Ceramic Solar Receivers Year 1 Continuation Report

This report describes the first year of work on a project to develop the methods, tools, and data required to analyze high temperature ceramic Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) components. This first year focused on developing the methods and data required for a time-independent assessment of potential components, focusing in particular on ceramic solar receivers. The report describes both model development and testing work focused on accomplishing this goal. Our overall conclusion is that high temperature ceramic CSP components are viable and could provide a means to overcome the expected low reliability and short service life for equivalent components constructed from Ni-based superalloys. Based on the results reported here, we recommend the project continue to Phase II which will develop more sophisticated, realistic models for time-dependent failure of ceramics operating in expected CSP component conditions and develop the time-dependent ceramic test data needed to parameterize these models, using commercial SiC as a reference material.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NREL Stratus - Enabling Workflows to Fuse Data Streams, Modeling, Simulation, and Machine Learning

Integrating cloud services into advanced computing facilities provides significant new capabilities over focusing solely on traditional high performance computing (HPC) workloads. This brings complementary capabilities as well as enabling new focused roles for HPC. They are especially potent for workflows that fuse data streams, modeling and simulation ('modsim') and machine learning. A key challenge to adopting a hybrid edge-cloud-HPC model is to align optimal capability, data, and user intent on the right resources for each step in a workflow.?The NREL Stratus service provides a basis for this: Stratus layers capabilities needed to make?cloud services accessible to a lab-based scientific community on commercial offerings, and; currently supports upwards of 200 projects ranging from IOT integration to traditional modeling and simulation. This provides a real-world inventory of scientific workflow elements. A growing knowledge base enables placing these elements appropriately between the edge, cloud, and traditional HPC. This paper outlines a vision via reference architecture and the application of that architecture in a typical workflow highlighting multiple components: sensor data intake, cleaning and transforming (edge/cloud suitable); generation of synthetic data through modsim, computationally heavy ML training and hyperparameter optimization (HPC suitable), and; inference and deployment (cloud ideal). Every step in such a workflow involves a cost-benefit analysis regarding the data movement, computational efficiency, availability, latency, and resource capabilities. The reference architecture and examples outlined allow for understanding new opportunities in the context of emerging workflows that combine IOT, cloud, and HPC to bolster scientific productivity.

AI↗