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At least 271 records · Page 15

Impact of distributed power electronics on the lifetime and reliability of PV systems: Impact of distributed power electronics

Here, this paper quantifies the impact of distributed power electronics in photovoltaic (PV) systems in terms of end-of-life energy-capture performance and reliability. The analysis is based on simulations of PV installations over system lifetime at various degradation rates. It is shown how module-level or submodule-level power converters can mitigate variations in cell degradation over time, effectively increasing the system lifespan by 5-10 years compared with the nominal 25-year lifetime. An important aspect typically overlooked when characterizing such improvements is the reliability of distributed power electronics, as power converter failures may not only diminish energy yield improvements but also adversely affect the overall system operation. Failure models are developed, and power electronics reliability is taken into account in this work, in order to provide a more comprehensive view of the opportunities and limitations offered by distributed power electronics in PV systems. Lastly, it is shown how a differential power-processing approach achieves the best mismatch mitigation performance and the least susceptibility to converter faults.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Data Driven Approach to Analyzing The Impact of Power Plant Cycling on Air Preheater Degradation and Remaining Useful Life

Due to the increased penetration of renewable energy generation sources, and fluctuations of the oil and gas prices, modern coal burning power plants deal with increased variability in the demand for power generation. These varying demands result in their intermittent under-capacity operation (cycling). Periodical ramping down and back up to follow the daily power demands causes damages to the plant components reducing its operational life. In this paper we analyze the impact of cycling on a rotary Ljungstrom air preheater (APH) unit installed at a coal fire power plant in the US. An inefficient air preheater can significantly impact boiler performance. Due to the repeated boiler’s hot-cold start, the APH experiences fluctuating operating conditions that result in accelerated degradation mechanisms, such as dew-point corrosion, fouling/deposition plugging, and air heater leakage. The analysis in this paper utilizes field data related to APH basket replacement, and the number of cycles experienced by the boiler to model the life expectancy of the baskets. The data-driven model enables preventive maintenance strategies for the APH by predicting how long the APH baskets will last in a probabilistic sense. Furthermore, the analysis showed that an increase in cycling for a fixed operation time can reduce the APH basket remaining useful life by about 30%.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Analysis of human performance differences between students and operators when using the Rancor Microworld simulator

Here, from within the umbrella of the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) framework, this paper analyzes human performance differences between professional and student operators when using a simplified simulator (i.e., Rancor Microworld). This paper represents a crucial step in understanding the fidelity of the simplified simulators and student operators within the SHEEP study. This paper explores a randomized factorial experimental design that features two independent variables: participant type and event class. Six human performance measurements are considered in the experiment. The experiment is conducted using 20 professional reactor operators employed at actual nuclear power plants (NPPs), along with 20 trained students. The experimental data are analyzed via statistical analysis methods. Finally, this paper examines the differences in human performance between actual operators and students when using Rancor Microworld.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Systematic Approach to Applying Lean Techniques to Optimize an Office Process at the Y-12 National Security Complex

This capstone offers the introduction of Lean concepts to an office activity to demonstrate the versatility of Lean. Traditionally Lean has been associated with process improvements as applied to an industrial atmosphere. However, this paper will demonstrate that implementing Lean concepts within an office activity can result in significant process improvements. Lean first emerged with the conception of the Toyota Production System. This innovative concept was designed to improve productivity in the automotive industry by eliminating waste and variation. Lean has also been applied to office environments, however the limited literature reveals most Lean techniques within an office are restricted to one or two techniques. Our capstone confronts these restrictions by introducing a systematic approach that utilizes multiple Lean concepts. The approach incorporates: system analysis, system reliability, system requirements, and system feasibility. The methodical Lean outline provides tools for a successful outcome, which ensures the process is thoroughly dissected and can be achieved for any process in any work environment.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Colorimetric-Luminance Readout for Quantitative Analysis of Fluorescence Signals with a Smartphone CMOS Sensor

Smartphones have shown promise as an enabling technology for portable and distributed point-of-care diagnostic tests. The CMOS camera sensor can be used for detecting optical signals, including fluorescence for applications such as isothermal nucleic acid amplification tests. However, such analysis is typically limited mostly to end point detection of single targets. In this paper, we present a smartphone-based image analysis pipeline that utilizes the CIE xyY (chromaticity-luminance) color space to measure the luminance (in lieu of RGB intensities) of fluorescent signals arising from nucleic acid amplification targets, with a discrimination sensitivity (ratio between the positive to negative signals), which is an order of magnitude more than traditional RGB intensity based analysis. Furthermore, the chromaticity part of the analysis enables reliable multiplexed detection of different targets labeled with spectrally separated fluorophores. We apply this chromaticity-luminance formulation to simultaneously detect Zika and chikungunya viral RNA via end point RT-LAMP (Reverse transcription Loop-Mediated isothermal amplification). We also show real time LAMP detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae samples down to a copy number of 3.5 copies per 10 μL of reaction volume in our smartphone-operated portable LAMP box. Finally, our chromaticity-luminance analysis is readily adaptable to other types of multiplexed fluorescence measurements using a smartphone camera.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A fast and reliable readout method for quantitative analysis of surface-enhanced Raman scattering nanoprobes on chip surface

Surface-enhanced Raman scattering techniques have been widely used for bioanalysis due to its high sensitivity and multiplex capacity. However, the point-scanning method using a micro-Raman system, which is the most common method in the literature, has a disadvantage of extremely long measurement time for on-chip immunoassay adopting a large chip area of approximately 1-mm scale and confocal beam point of ca. 1-μm size. Alternative methods such as sampled spot scan with high confocality and large-area scan method with enlarged field of view and low confocality have been utilized in order to minimize the measurement time practically. In this study, we analyzed the two methods in respect of signal-to-noise ratio and sampling-led signal fluctuations to obtain insights into a fast and reliable readout strategy. On this basis, we proposed a methodology for fast and reliable quantitative measurement of the whole chip area. The proposed method adopted a raster scan covering a full area of 100 μm × 100 μm region as a proof-of-concept experiment while accumulating signals in the CCD detector for single spectrum per frame. One single scan with 10 s over 100 μm × 100 μm area yielded much higher sensitivity compared to sampled spot scanning measurements and no signal fluctuations attributed to sampled spot scan. This readout method is able to serve as one of key technologies that will bring quantitative multiplexed detection and analysis into practice.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

An Experimental Analysis on the CNS Simulator Comparing Human Performance between Operators and Students

This study, as a previous study of the SHEEP project, aims to identify differences in human performance data through experiments with students and operators using CNS (Compact Nuclear Simulator). To achieve this goal, this experiment seeks to analyze the correlation of measured human performance between students and operators through a randomized factorial experiment design. Five human performances are measured. In addition, several scenarios and related procedures have been developed for the CNS experiments.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The importance of capturing power system operational details in resource adequacy assessments

Traditional methods for assessing the resource adequacy (RA) of a power system are becoming obsolete due to emerging trends such as the increasing deployment of variable renewable energy and storage. Consequently, analysts are recommending that RA be assessed using a Monte Carlo simulation approach that models chronological power system operations over many instances of possible operating conditions. However, this approach is necessarily more complex and computationally demanding, which is an obstacle to real-world implementation. Here, in this study, we investigate which operational details of power systems are important to capture in order to accurately evaluate a system's RA, versus details that add complexity but do not meaningfully affect RA results. To do so, we develop a probabilistic RA assessment framework by adapting an existing production cost model and apply it to a case study based on the IEEE Reliability Test System. Our results indicate that multi-year data, storage dispatch, and transmission limits are key details to incorporate. Accurate RA results can be obtained using non-economic dispatch strategies as long as they are coordinated with detailed operational strategies. We also demonstrate how popular expectation-based RA metrics can mask important differences in the characteristics of loss of load events.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A method for the estimation of p-mode parameters from averaged solar oscillation power spectra

A new fitting methodology is presented that is equally well suited for the estimation of low-, medium-, and high-degree mode parameters from m-averaged solar oscillation power spectra of widely differing spectral resolution. This method, which we call the “Windowed, MuLTiple-Peak, averaged-spectrum” or WMLTP Method, constructs a theoretical profile by convolving the weighted sum of the profiles of the modes appearing in the fitting box with the power spectrum of the window function of the observing run, using weights from a leakage matrix that takes into account observational and physical effects, such as the distortion of modes by solar latitudinal differential rotation. We demonstrate that the WMLTP Method makes substantial improvements in the inferences of the properties of the solar oscillations in comparison with a previous method, which employed a single profile to represent each spectral peak. We also present an inversion for the internal solar structure, which is based upon 6366 modes that we computed using the WMLTP method on the 66 day 2010 Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/MDI Dynamics Run. To improve both the numerical stability and reliability of the inversion, we developed a new procedure for the identification and correction of outliers in a frequency dataset. We present evidence for a pronounced departure of the sound speed in the outer half of the solar convection zone and in the subsurface shear layer from the radial sound speed profile contained in Model S of Christensen-Dalsgaard and his collaborators that existed in the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24 during mid-2010.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Intrepid MCMC: Metropolis-Hastings with exploration

In engineering examples, one often encounters the need to sample from unnormalized distributions with complex shapes that may also be implicitly defined through a physical or numerical simulation model, making it computationally expensive to evaluate the associated density function. For such cases, MCMC has proven to be an invaluable tool. Random-walk Metropolis Methods (also known as Metropolis-Hastings (MH)), in particular, are highly popular for their simplicity, flexibility, and ease of implementation. However, most MH algorithms suffer from significant limitations when attempting to sample from distributions with multiple modes (particularly disconnected ones). Here, in this paper, we present Intrepid MCMC - a novel MH scheme that utilizes a simple coordinate transformation to significantly improve the mode-finding ability and convergence rate to the target distribution of random-walk Markov chains while retaining most of the simplicity of the vanilla MH paradigm. Through multiple examples, we showcase the improvement in the performance of Intrepid MCMC over vanilla MH for a wide variety of target distribution shapes. We also provide an analysis of the mixing behavior of the Intrepid Markov chain, as well as the efficiency of our algorithm for increasing dimensions. A thorough discussion is presented on the practical implementation of the Intrepid MCMC algorithm. Finally, its utility is highlighted through a Bayesian parameter inference problem for a two-degree-of-freedom oscillator under free vibration.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

srlife : A software tool for estimating the life of high temperature concentrating solar receivers. Part II – Ceramic receivers

As Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies aim for higher operating temperatures to enhance efficiency and meet industrial process heat demands, high-temperature metallic materials, including nickel-based superalloys, face challenges in maintaining structural integrity. Advanced ceramics offer a promising alternative due to their superior high-temperature strength. However, accurately assessing the performance of ceramic components requires a fundamentally different approach from that used for metallic components. This Part II of a two-part paper describes the integration of ceramic statistical failure models within srlife – an open-source tool for predicting the life of high-temperature CSP receivers. These models account for the inherent variability in ceramic strength, as well as the effects of subcritical crack growth (SCG) under high temperature cyclic loads. Here, the paper includes an example problem that demonstrate the process of evaluating ceramic receivers using srlife. Part I details the life estimation process for metallic receivers (i.e. creep-fatigue life) along with input and output data structure, thermohydraulic analysis, and structural analysis. The complete tool is available as open-source software at https://github.com/srlife-project/srlife and can be installed via the PyPi package manager (https://pypi.org). By supporting both ceramic and metallic receiver analyses, srlife facilitates fair comparisons between competing metallic and ceramic designs, enabling accurate evaluations of plant efficiency and the economic benefits of ceramic solar receivers and other components.

High temperature ceramic receivers↗

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

A recovery action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. It generally indicates a kind of countermeasure performed in response to a failure of human action. The recovery actions especially play an important role in complex systems like nuclear power plants (NPPs), which consist of highly sophisticated controllers to ensure that desired performance and safety must be achieved and maintained. This is because a combination of human error and its recovery failure may be able to cause a catastrophic effect on a system. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part of HRA, which is a technique to evaluate human errors and provide human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If recovery actions are not adequately analyzed and applied to PSA models, the PSA results may be under-estimated or be not able to reasonably account for the failure of human actions in the context of PSA. For this reason, some regulatory documents such as ASME/ANS RA-Sb-2013 by the American Society for Mechanical Engineers and the American Nuclear Society and NUREG-1792 by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission have emphasized the importance of recovery analysis within the HRA. A couple of existing HRA methods, such as the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT), and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA), have respectively suggested their own approaches to the HRA recovery analysis. However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. The biggest limitation is that the existing recovery analysis does not explicitly consider a variety of recovery action types and recovery sequences as they occur in actual NPPs. To handle the limitations of existing recovery analysis, this study proposes a simulation-based recovery analysis method using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. The EMRALD software is a dynamic simulation tool for PSA. It supports realistic and dynamic modeling of human actions as they would be performed at NPPs. It is also favorable to simultaneously model the specific moment at which an action is performed, the time it takes to perform the action, and the failure probability of that action. In this paper, a detailed methodology for modeling recovery actions in the simulation platform is proposed with a couple of examples. Then, outputs from the simulation are discussed as reviewing if this novel approach can complement the challenges of existing recovery analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

SU-G-201-14: Is Maximum Skin Dose a Reliable Metric for Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation with Brachytherapy?

Purpose: To evaluate the reliability of the maximum point dose (Dmax) to the skin surface as a dosimetric constraint, we investigated the correlation between Dmax at the skin surface and dose metrics at various definitions of skin thickness. Methods: 42 patients treated with APBI using a Strut Adjusted Volume Implant (SAVI) applicator between 2010 and 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Target (PTV-EVAL) and organs at risk (OARs: skin, lung, and ribs) were delineated on a CT following NSABP B-39 guidelines. Six skin structures were contoured: a rind 3cm external to the body surface and 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5mm thick rinds deep to the body surface. Inverse planning simulated annealing optimization was used to deliver 32–34Gy in 8-10 fractions to the target while minimizing OAR doses. Dmax, D0.1cc, D1.0cc, and D2.0cc to the various skin structures were calculated. Linear regressions between the metrics were evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R{sup 2}). Results: The average±SD PTV-EVAL volume and cavity-to-skin distances were 71.1±28.5cc and 6.9±5.0mm. The target V90 and V95 were 97.3±2.3% and 95.1±3.2%. The Dmax to the skin structures were 78.7±10.2% (skin surface), 82.2±10.7% (skin-1mm), 89.4±12.6% (skin-2mm), 97.9±15.4% (skin-3mm), 114.1±32.5% (skin-4mm), and 157.0±85.3% (skin-5mm). Linear regression analysis showed D1.0cc and D2.0cc to the skin 1mm and Dmax to the skin-4mm and 5mm were poorly correlated with other metrics (R{sup 2}=0.413±0.204). Dmax to the skin surface was well correlated (R{sup 2}=0.910±0.047) and D1.0cc to the skin-3mm was strongly correlated with all subsurface skin layers (R{sup 2}=0.935±0.050). Conclusion: Dmax to the skin surface is a relevant metric for breast skin dose. Contouring discontinuities in the skin with a 1mm subsurface rind and the active dwells in the skin 4 and 5mm introduced significant variations in skin DVH. D0.1cc, D1.0cc, and D2.0cc to a 3mm skin rind are more robust metrics in breast brachytherapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Uncertainty quantification for evaluating the impacts of fracture zone on pressure build-up and ground surface uplift during geological CO₂ sequestration

A series of numerical test cases reflecting broad and realistic ranges of geological formation and preexisting fault properties was developed to systematically evaluate the impacts of preexisting faults on pressure buildup and ground surface uplift during CO₂ injection. Numerical test cases were conducted using a coupled hydro-geomechanical simulator, eSTOMP (extreme-scale Subsurface Transport over Multiple Phases). For efficient sensitivity analysis and reliable construction of a reduced-order model, a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling method was applied to effectively sample a high-dimensional input parameter space to explore uncertainties associated with hydrologic, geologic, and geomechanical properties. The uncertainty quantification results show that the impacts on geomechanical response from the pre-existing faults mainly depend on reservoir and fault permeability. When the fault permeability is two to three orders of magnitude smaller than the reservoir permeability, the fault can be considered as an impermeable block that resists fluid transport in the reservoir, which causes pressure increase near the fault. When the fault permeability is close to the reservoir permeability, or higher than 10⁻¹⁵ m² in this study, the fault can be considered as a conduit that penetrates the caprock, connecting the fluid flow between the reservoir and the upper rock.

CO₂ geological sequestration↗

Comparison of Mutual Awareness in Analog vs. Digital Control Rooms

Control rooms in nuclear power plants are complex, collaborative working environments rife with potential for human error. As control rooms evolve from analog to digital interface environments, crew communication strategies must change as well. Operators in the analog control room operate the plant and communicate with each other with the help of control boards with large control panels, meters, and switches. Reactor operators could choose a particular set of controls on the particular control board which corresponds to the part of the system of interest. Visual display units (VDU), which became a fixture in the control rooms with the shift to digital human-machine interfaces (HMI), bring benefits for safety and flexibility combining information from various sources. With the increase in automation and the use of digital HMIs operators received their personal sitting workstations where they are able to navigate and operate the plant. The amount of information increased as well as the complexity of monitoring and analyzing the system states. Also computerized systems cause operators to get absorbed by their personal screens and reduce interaction between the crew members. Therefore, the collaboration and coordination of task demands requires vigilance and mutual awareness. The level of automation has an influence on the level of mutual awareness experienced by operators in the control rooms. Teams function to carry out highly interdependent tasks, requiring synthesis and sharing of information to achieve common goals. Improving the performance of the team necessitates the operators to focus on the system, the surrounding environment, and situational awareness about the system states. Collaboration of team members is critical when employing the digital operating systems as the acute awareness of the overall progress of the group and individual activities of the operators drives the team to the desired end-states of the plant operations. Out-of-the loop (OOTL) performance problems can be referred to as the lack of supervisory control, system monitoring, and information processing in the digital HMIs. Under some circumstances Senior Reactor Operators (SRO) struggle to follow the actions of other Reactor Operators (RO) because with the new digital interfaces SROs lose track of how the procedures are carried out by ROs, which results in the loss of three way communication. Mutual awareness plays a significant role in keeping the SROs in the loop of plant operations. This paper will investigate, through literature review and expert interviews, the impact and human errors attributed to the increasing complexity of new digital main control rooms. Comparison of the new digital interfaces with the analog interfaces in nuclear power plants has the potential to shed light on increasing mutual awareness and three way communications between the SROs and ROs. Further, identification of the human errors and human actions can provide beneficial information, suggesting significant and critical improvements that can be implemented in the main control rooms to increase safety and reliability of new technology. Additionally, insights on mutual awareness for analog vs. digital control rooms can serve to improve human reliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Holistic modeling framework of demand response considering multiti-mescale uncertainties for capacity value estimation

Demand response (DR) is regarded as an effective tool to mitigate the operational uncertainties and enhance the reliability of power supply in smart grids. However, with the time-varying attribute, to what extent DR could be committed is a major concern for utilities. This paper proposes a new approach to assess the capacity value (CV) of DR with a methodological framework developed for the uncertainty modeling of DR. The novelty of this framework is its inclusion of both physical and human-related analyses in DR programs, which allows the characterization of DR variability to be accurate for the CV estimation. To achieve this, the demand-side activities in DR are disaggregated into several modules as load usage, contract selection and actual performance. Based on their intrinsic properties, different parametric models are proposed to represent the impact of each technical/social factor on the availability of DR. The parameters of these models are determined using learning based algorithms to adapt to various behavior patterns of consumers. The outputs of the framework will serve as the quantifiers of DR capability and are integrated into reliability-based CV evaluation. The results of case studies verify the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Capacity value↗

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Persistent global greening over the last four decades using novel long-term vegetation index data with enhanced temporal consistency

Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite observations have provided the longest global daily records from 1980s, but the remaining temporal inconsistency in vegetation index datasets has hindered reliable assessment of vegetation greenness trends. To tackle this, we generated novel global long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Near-Infrared Reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) datasets derived from AVHRR and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We addressed residual temporal inconsistency through three-step post processing including cross-sensor calibration among AVHRR sensors, orbital drifting correction for AVHRR sensors, and machine learning-based harmonization between AVHRR and MODIS. After applying each processing step, we confirmed the enhanced temporal consistency in terms of detrended anomaly, trend and interannual variability of NDVI and NIRv at calibration sites. Our refined NDVI and NIRv datasets showed a persistent global greening trend over the last four decades (NDVI: 0.0008 yr -1 ; NIRv: 0.0003 yr -1 ), contrasting with those without the three processing steps that showed rapid greening trends before 2000 (NDVI: 0.0017 yr -1 ; NIRv: 0.0008 yr -1 ) and weakened greening trends after 2000 (NDVI: 0.0004 yr -1 ; NIRv: 0.0001 yr -1 ). These findings highlight the importance of minimizing temporal inconsistency in long-term vegetation index datasets, which can support more reliable trend analysis in global vegetation response to climate changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗