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Expected Improvements in VLBI Measurements of the Earth's Orientation

Measurements of the Earth s orientation since the 1970s using space geodetic techniques have provided a continually expanding and improving data set for studies of the Earth s structure and the distribution of mass and angular momentum. The accuracy of current one-day measurements is better than 100 microarcsec for the motion of the pole with respect to the celestial and terrestrial reference frames and better than 3 microsec for the rotation around the pole. VLBI uniquely provides the three Earth orientation parameters (nutation and UTI) that relate the Earth to the extragalactic celestial reference frame. The accuracy and resolution of the VLBI Earth orientation time series can be expected to improve substantially in the near future because of refinements in the realization of the celestial reference frame, improved modeling of the troposphere and non-linear station motions, larger observing networks, optimized scheduling, deployment of disk-based Mark V recorders, full use of Mark IV capabilities, and e-VLBI. More radical future technical developments will be discussed.

Ma, Chopo

Fabrication of Buried Nanochannels From Nanowire Patterns

A method of fabricating channels having widths of tens of nanometers in silicon substrates and burying the channels under overlying layers of dielectric materials has been demonstrated. With further refinement, the method might be useful for fabricating nanochannels for manipulation and analysis of large biomolecules at single-molecule resolution. Unlike in prior methods, burying the channels does not involve bonding of flat wafers to the silicon substrates to cover exposed channels in the substrates. Instead, the formation and burying of the channels are accomplished in a more sophisticated process that is less vulnerable to defects in the substrates and less likely to result in clogging of, or leakage from, the channels. In this method, the first step is to establish the channel pattern by forming an array of sacrificial metal nanowires on an SiO2-on-Si substrate. In particular, the wire pattern is made by use of focused-ion-beam (FIB) lithography and a subsequent metallization/lift-off process. The pattern of metal nanowires is then transferred onto the SiO2 layer by reactive-ion etching, which yields sacrificial SiO2 nanowires covered by metal. After removal of the metal covering the SiO2 nanowires, what remains are SiO2 nanowires on an Si substrate. Plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) is used to form a layer of a dielectric material over the Si substrate and over the SiO2 wires on the surface of the substrate. FIB milling is then performed to form trenches at both ends of each SiO2 wire. The trenches serve as openings for the entry of chemicals that etch SiO2 much faster than they etch Si. Provided that the nanowires are not so long that the diffusion of the etching chemicals is blocked, the sacrificial SiO2 nanowires become etched out from between the dielectric material and the Si substrate, leaving buried channels. At the time of reporting the information for this article, channels 3 m long, 20 nm deep, and 80 nm wide (see figure) had been fabricated by this method.

Choi, Daniel

Land Surface Phenology from MODIS: Characterization of the Collection 5 Global Land Cover Dynamics Product

Information related to land surface phenology is important for a variety of applications. For example, phenology is widely used as a diagnostic of ecosystem response to global change. In addition, phenology influences seasonal scale fluxes of water, energy, and carbon between the land surface and atmosphere. Increasingly, the importance of phenology for studies of habitat and biodiversity is also being recognized. While many data sets related to plant phenology have been collected at specific sites or in networks focused on individual plants or plant species, remote sensing provides the only way to observe and monitor phenology over large scales and at regular intervals. The MODIS Global Land Cover Dynamics Product was developed to support investigations that require regional to global scale information related to spatiotemporal dynamics in land surface phenology. Here we describe the Collection 5 version of this product, which represents a substantial refinement relative to the Collection 4 product. This new version provides information related to land surface phenology at higher spatial resolution than Collection 4 (500-m vs. 1-km), and is based on 8-day instead of 16-day input data. The paper presents a brief overview of the algorithm, followed by an assessment of the product. To this end, we present (1) a comparison of results from Collection 5 versus Collection 4 for selected MODIS tiles that span a range of climate and ecological conditions, (2) a characterization of interannual variation in Collections 4 and 5 data for North America from 2001 to 2006, and (3) a comparison of Collection 5 results against ground observations for two forest sites in the northeastern United States. Results show that the Collection 5 product is qualitatively similar to Collection 4. However, Collection 5 has fewer missing values outside of regions with persistent cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols. Interannual variability in Collection 5 is consistent with expected ranges of variance suggesting that the algorithm is reliable and robust, except in the tropics where some systematic differences are observed. Finally, comparisons with ground data suggest that the algorithm is performing well, but that end of season metrics associated with vegetation senescence and dormancy have higher uncertainties than start of season metrics.

Land cover dynamics

Content and Representation of Information Needed to Support Time-Constrained Problem Solving

NASA’s current mission-operations paradigm originated with Project Mercury and endured with minimum evolution through the Apollo Program, Space Shuttle Program, and ISS missions. At its foundation is a near-complete real-time dependence on a ground team to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew. Utilizing many engineers and operators with broad and deep expertise; large, distributed datasets including extensive telemetry; and expansive analytical and computing power, this ground team has served as the safety net for crewed spaceflight missions over the past 60 years. This approach must change to address challenges associated with missions beyond low Earth orbit (BLEO), including infrequent resupply, reduced ability to evacuate, and delayed communications that prohibit real-time operational support. We anticipate that a necessary part of this change will be increased independence for the crew, as roles and responsibilities traditionally performed by ground teams move on board the vehicle. While many risks are associated with Earth-independent operations, one particular concern is ensuring that the crew will have adequate onboard support to perform urgent problem solving when communication with the ground is delayed or intermittent. A key resource that enables the ground team to respond to anomalies quickly and effectively is the extraordinary expertise and experience it possesses. It is comprised of 80+ experts on at any given time, with a combined 600+ years of system-specific experience across 22 unique console disciplines. A small crew will face the unprecedented challenge of independently responding to anomalies that have historically been handled by a team 20 times their size. Another important resource upon which the ground heavily relies to support procedure execution and anomaly response is data. The amount of telemetry data that each flight controller monitors is extensive. In addition, as the ground team works to further assess impacts, trouble shoot, identify workarounds, and oversee procedure execution, it accesses and synthesizes engineering and procedure information, as well as system build, test, and configuration documentation. It is not feasible nor useful to put all these data onboard as crews become more Earth independent. Each member of a small Mars mission small crew will have multiple roles beyond monitoring telemetry and data gathering, and multiple roles within anomaly resolution processes, thereby limiting their capacity for copious amounts of information. Moreover, while access is necessary, it alone is insufficient. Information will need to be compiled, refined, and represented appropriately to support the crew’s reduced attention and expertise. This work seeks to understand the content and representation of information needed to support time-constrained problem solving and decision making by the crew without real-time ground support. To build this understanding, we first surveyed the literature, focusing on how expert problem solvers construct and manipulate their mental models. Next, we interviewed expert problem solvers in spaceflight and analogous domains and surveyed industry solutions for data presentation. Finally, we analyzed current spaceflight operations by investigating flight controller anomaly resolution processes during ISS training simulations and real operational events. These methods led to creating a problem-solving framework that details common themes and features of attending to, assessing, analyzing, and acting on problems in complex, time-constrained domains. Using this framework and the results of our analysis, we identified conceptual data representations needed for crew-led problem-solving. Preliminary onboard user interface concepts to meet identified needs will be presented.

anomaly response

Evaluation of Navier-Stokes and Euler solutions for leading-edge separation vortices

Extensive study on the numerical simulation of the vortical flow over a double delta wing is carried out using the thin layer Navier-Stokes and Euler equations. Two important flow characteristics, vortex interaction and vortex breakdown, are successfully simulated. Grid resolution is one of the most important factors associated with the vortex problem. Computations were performed on a series of grids with various levels of refinement, coarse, medium, and fine. Computations using either the coarse or medium grids fail to capture the proper physical phenomena. The computed result using a fine grid shows flow unsteadiness once the vortex breakdown takes place. The C sub L - alpha characteristics are well predicted up to the breakdown angle of attack for all the grid distributions. The Euler solutions show fairly good agreement with the experiment on the C sub L - alpha characteristics. However, other aspects of the solution at each angle of attack, such as the locus of the leading edge separation vortex, are not consistent with the experiment. Even for the fine grid Navier-Stokes computations, further grid resolution is required to obtain good quantitative agreement with the experiment.

Fujii, K.

Evaluation of Navier-Stokes and Euler solutions for leading-edge separation vortices

Extensive study on the numerical simulation of the vortical flow over a double delta wing is carried out using the thin layer Navier-Stokes and Euler equations. Two important flow characteristics, vortex interaction and vortex breakdown, are successfully simulated. Grid resolution is one of the most important factors associated with the vortex problem. Computations were performed on a series of grids with various levels of refinement, coarse, medium, and fine. Computations using either the coarse or medium grids fail to capture the proper physical phenomena. The computed result using a fine grid shows flow unsteadiness once the vortex breakdown takes place. The C sub L - alpha characteristics are well predicted up to the breakdown angle of attack for all the grid distributions. The Euler solutions show fairly good agreement with the experiment on the C sub L - alpha characteristics. However, other aspects of the solution at each angle of attack, such as the locus of the leading edge separation vortex, are not consistent with the experiment. Even for the fine grid Navier-Stokes computations, further grid resolution is required to obtain good quantitative agreement with the experiment.

Fujii, K.

An Overview of LANDSAT-4 and the Thematic Mapper

The LANDSAT 4 satellite and its orbit, the Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor design, and the ground processing of TM data are discussed. The design of LANDSAT 4 incorporates several technological advancements which include the TM. The TM offers refinements over the familiar Multispectral Scanners (MSS's) aboard all of the LANDSAT satellites in terms of spatial, spectral, and radiometric resolutions. The TM data undergo radiometric and geometric corrections on the ground to provide investigators with pictorial and digital image data products.

Irons, J. R.

Optical Imaging of Flow Pattern and Phantom

Time-resolved optical imaging technique has been used to image the spatial distribution of small droplets and jet sprays in a highly scattering environment. The snake and ballistic components of the transmitted pulse are less scattered, and contain direct information about the sample to facilitate image formation as opposed to the diffusive components which are due to multiple collisions as a light pulse propagates through a scattering medium. In a time-gated imaging scheme, these early-arriving, image-bearing components of the incident pulse are selected by opening a gate for an ultrashort period of time and a shadowgram image is detected. Using a single shot cooled CCD camera system, the formation of water droplets is monitored as a function of time. Picosecond time-gated image of drop in scattering cells, spray droplets as a function of let speed and gas pressure, and model calcification samples consisted of calcium carbonate particles of irregular shapes ranging in size from 0. 1 to 1.5 mm affixed to a microscope slide have been measured. Formation produced by an impinging jet will be further monitored using a CCD with 1 kHz framing illuminated with pulsed light. The desired image resolution of the fuel droplets is on the 20 pm scale using early light through a highly scattering medium. A 10(exp -6)m displacement from a jet spray with a flow speed of 100 m/sec introduced by the ns grating pulse used in the imaging is negligible. Early ballistic/snake light imaging offers nondestructive and noninvasive method to observe the spatial distribution of hidden objects inside a highly scattering environment for space, biomedical, and materials applications. In this paper, the techniques we will present are time-resolved K-F transillumination imaging and time-gated scattered light imaging. With a large dynamic range and high resolution, time-gated early light imaging has the potential for improving rocket/aircraft design by determining jets shape and particle sizes. Refinements to these techniques may enable drop size measurements in the highly scattering, optically dense region of multi-element rocket injectors. These types of measurements should greatly enhance the design of stable, and higher performing rocket engines.

Galland, Pierre A.

Detection of Objects Hidden in Highly Scattering Media Using Time-Gated Imaging Methods

Non-intrusive and non-invasive optical imaging techniques has generated great interest among researchers for their potential applications to biological study, device characterization, surface defect detection, and jet fuel dynamics. Non-linear optical parametric amplification gate (NLOPG) has been used to detect back-scattered images of objects hidden in diluted Intralipid solutions. To directly detect objects hidden in highly scattering media, the diffusive component of light needs to be sorted out from early arrived ballistic and snake photons. In an optical imaging system, images are collected in transmission or back-scattered geometry. The early arrival photons in the transmission approach, always carry the direct information of the hidden object embedded in the turbid medium. In the back-scattered approach, the result is not so forth coming. In the presence of a scattering host, the first arrival photons in back-scattered approach will be directly photons from the host material. In the presentation, NLOPG was applied to acquire time resolved back-scattered images under the phase matching condition. A time-gated amplified signal was obtained through this NLOPG process. The system's gain was approximately 100 times. The time-gate was achieved through phase matching condition where only coherent photons retain their phase. As a result, the diffusive photons, which were the primary contributor to the background, were removed. With a large dynamic range and high resolution, time-gated early light imaging has the potential for improving rocket/aircraft design by determining jets shape and particle sizes. Refinements to these techniques may enable drop size measurements in the highly scattering, optically dense region of multi-element rocket injectors. These types of measurements should greatly enhance the design of stable, and higher performing rocket engines.

Galland, Pierre A.

Refinement of Protocols for Measuring the Apparent Optical Properties of Seawater

Ocean color satellite missions, like the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) or the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) projects, are tasked with acquiring a global ocean color data set, validating and monitoring the accuracy and quality of the data, processing the radiometric data into geophysical units using a set of atmospheric and bio-optical algorithms, and distributing the final products to the scientific community. The long-standing requirement of the SeaWiFS Project, for example, is to produce spectral water-leaving radiances, LW(lambda), to within 5% absolute (lambda denotes wavelength) and chlorophyll a concentrations to within 35% (Hooker and Esaias 1993), and most ocean color sensors have the same or similar requirements. Although a diverse set of activities are required to ensure the accuracy requirements are met (Hooker and McClain 2000), the perspective here is with field observations. The accurate determination of upper ocean apparent optical properties (AOPs) is essential for the vicarious calibration of ocean color data and the validation of the derived data products, because the sea-truth measurements are used to evaluate the satellite observations (Hooker and McClain 2000). The uncertainties with in situ AOP measurements have various sources: a) the sampling procedures used in the field, including the environmental conditions encountered; b) the absolute characterization of the radiometers in the laboratory; c) the conversion of the light signals to geophysical units in a processing scheme, and d) the stability of the radiometers in the harsh environment they are subjected to during transport and use. Assuming ideal environmental conditions, so this aspect can be neglected, the SeaWiFS ground-truth uncertainty budget can only be satisfied if each uncertainty is on the order of 1-2%, or what is generally referred to as 1% radiometry. In recent years, progress has been made in estimating the magnitude of some of these uncertainties and in defining procedures for minimizing them. For the SeaWiFS Project, the first step was to convene a workshop to draft the SeaWiFS Ocean Optics Protocols (hereafter referred to as the Protocols). The Protocols initially adhered to the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) sampling procedures (JGOFS 1991) and defined the standards for optical measurements to be used in SeaWiFS calibration and validation activities (Mueller and Austin 1992). Over time, the Protocols were revised (Mueller and Austin 1995), and then recurringly updated on essentially an annual basis (Mueller 2000, 2002, and 2003) as part of the Sensor Inter-comparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) project. 98

Hooker, Stanford B.

Cool, Evolved Stars: Results, Challenges, and Promises for the Next Decade

Cool, evolved stars are the main source of chemical enrichment of the interstellar medium (ISM), and understanding their mass loss and structure offers a unique opportunity to study the cycle of matter in the Universe. Pulsation, convection, and other dynamic processes in cool evolved stars create an atmosphere where molecules and dust can form, including those necessary to the formation of life (e.g. Carbon-bearing molecules). Understanding the structure and composition of these stars is thus vital to several aspects of stellar astrophysics, ranging from ISM studies to modeling young galaxies and to exoplanet research. Recent modeling efforts and increasingly precise observations now reveal that our understanding of cool stars photospheric, chromospheric, and atmospheric structures is limited by inadequate knowledge of the dynamic and chemical processes at work. Here we outline promising scientific opportunities for the next decade that can provide essential constraints on stellar photospheres, chromospheres, and circumstellar envelopes (CSE), and tie together analyses of the spectra and interferometric and imaging observations of evolved stars. We identify and discuss the following main opportunities: (1) identify and model the physical processes that must be included in current 1D and 3D atmosphere models of cool, evolved stars; (2) refine our understanding of photospheric, chromospheric, and outer atmospheric regions of cool evolved stars, their properties and parameters, through high-resolution spectroscopic observations, and interferometric observations at high angular resolution; (3) include the neglected role of chromospheric activity in the mass loss process of red giant branch (RGB) and red super giant (RSG) stars and understand the role played by their magnetic fields; (4) identify the important shaping mechanisms for planetary nebulae (PNe) and their relation with the parent Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars.

Gioia Rau

Geotail MCA plasma wave data analysis

NASA Grant NAG 5-2346 supports the data analysis effort at The University of Iowa for the GEOTAIL Multi-Channel Analyzer (MCA) which is a part of the GEOTAIL Plasma Wave Instrument (PWI). At the beginning of this reporting period we had just begun to receive our GEOTAIL Sirius data on CD-ROMs. Much programming effort went into adapting and refining the data analysis programs to include the CD-ROM inputs. Programs were also developed to display the high-frequency-resolution PWI Sweep Frequency Analyzer (SFA) data and to include in all the various plot products the electron cyclotron frequency derived from the magnitude of the magnetic field extracted from the GEOTAIL Magnetic Field (MGF) data included in the GEOTAIL Sirius data. We also developed programs to use the MGF data residing in the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) GEOTAIL Scientific Data Base (SDB). Our programmers also developed programs and provided technical support for the GEOTAIL data analysis efforts of Co-lnvestigator William W. L. Taylor at Nichols Research Corporation (NRC). At the end of this report we have included brief summaries of the NRC effort and the progress being made.

Anderson, Roger R.

Assessment of an Euler-Interacting Boundary Layer Method Using High Reynolds Number Transonic Flight Data

Flight-measured high Reynolds number turbulent-flow pressure distributions on a transport wing in transonic flow are compared to unstructured-grid calculations to assess the predictive ability of a three-dimensional Euler code (USM3D) coupled to an interacting boundary layer module. The two experimental pressure distributions selected for comparative analysis with the calculations are complex and turbulent but typical of an advanced technology laminar flow wing. An advancing front method (VGRID) was used to generate several tetrahedral grids for each test case. Initial calculations left considerable room for improvement in accuracy. Studies were then made of experimental errors, transition location, viscous effects, nacelle flow modeling, number and placement of spanwise boundary layer stations, and grid resolution. The most significant improvements in the accuracy of the calculations were gained by improvement of the nacelle flow model and by refinement of the computational grid. Final calculations yield results in close agreement with the experiment. Indications are that further grid refinement would produce additional improvement but would require more computer memory than is available. The appendix data compare the experimental attachment line location with calculations for different grid sizes. Good agreement is obtained between the experimental and calculated attachment line locations.

Bonhaus, Daryl L.

Analysis of High Order Difference Methods for Multiscale Complex Compressible Flows

Accurate numerical simulations of complex multiscale compressible viscous flows, especially high speed turbulence combustion and acoustics, demand high order schemes with adaptive numerical dissipation controls. Standard high resolution shock-capturing methods are too dissipative to capture the small scales and/or long-time wave propagations without extreme grid refinements and small time steps. An integrated approach for the control of numerical dissipation in high order schemes with incremental studies was initiated. Here we further refine the analysis on, and improve the understanding of the adaptive numerical dissipation control strategy. Basically, the development of these schemes focuses on high order nondissipative schemes and takes advantage of the progress that has been made for the last 30 years in numerical methods for conservation laws, such as techniques for imposing boundary conditions, techniques for stability at shock waves, and techniques for stable and accurate long-time integration. We concentrate on high order centered spatial discretizations and a fourth-order Runge-Kutta temporal discretizations as the base scheme. Near the bound-aries, the base scheme has stable boundary difference operators. To further enhance stability, the split form of the inviscid flux derivatives is frequently used for smooth flow problems. To enhance nonlinear stability, linear high order numerical dissipations are employed away from discontinuities, and nonlinear filters are employed after each time step in order to suppress spurious oscillations near discontinuities to minimize the smearing of turbulent fluctuations. Although these schemes are built from many components, each of which is well-known, it is not entirely obvious how the different components be best connected. For example, the nonlinear filter could instead have been built into the spatial discretization, so that it would have been activated at each stage in the Runge-Kutta time stepping. We could think of a mechanism that activates the split form of the equations only at some parts of the domain. Another issue is how to define good sensors for determining in which parts of the computational domain a certain feature should be filtered by the appropriate numerical dissipation. For the present study we employ a wavelet technique introduced in as sensors. Here, the method is briefly described with selected numerical experiments.

Sjoegreen, Bjoern

Highly Accurate Potential Energy Surface, Dipole Moment Surface, Rovibrational Energy Levels, and Infrared Line List for (32)S(16)O2 up to 8000 cm(exp -1)

A purely ab initio potential energy surface (PES) was refined with selected (32)S(16)O2 HITRAN data. Compared to HITRAN, the root-mean-squares error (RMS) error for all J=0-80 rovibrational energy levels computed on the refined PES (denoted Ames-1) is 0.013 cm(exp -1). Combined with a CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pV(Q+d)Z dipole moment surface (DMS), an infrared (IR) line list (denoted Ames-296K) has been computed at 296K and covers up to 8,000 cm(exp -1). Compared to the HITRAN and CDMS databases, the intensity agreement for most vibrational bands is better than 85-90%. Our predictions for (34)S(16)O2 band origins, higher energy (32)S(16)O2 band origins and missing (32)S(16)O2 IR bands have been verified by most recent experiments and available HITRAN data. We conclude that the Ames-1 PES is able to predict (32/34)S(16)O2 band origins below 5500 cm(exp -1) with 0.01-0.03 cm(exp -1) uncertainties, and the Ames-296K line list provides continuous, reliable and accurate IR simulations. The Ka-dependence of both line position and line intensity errors is discussed. The line list will greatly facilitate SO2 IR spectral experimental analysis, as well as elimination of SO2 lines in high-resolution astronomical observations.

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)

Aeroacoustic Simulations of a Nose Landing Gear with FUN3D: A Grid Refinement Study

A systematic grid refinement study is presented for numerical simulations of a partially-dressed, cavity-closed (PDCC) nose landing gear configuration that was tested in the University of Florida's open-jet acoustic facility known as the UFAFF. The unstructured-grid flow solver FUN3D is used to compute the unsteady flow field for this configuration. Mixed-element grids generated using the Pointwise (Registered Trademark) grid generation software are used for numerical simulations. Particular care is taken to ensure quality cells and proper resolution in critical areas of interest in an effort to minimize errors introduced by numerical artifacts. A set of grids was generated in this manner to create a family of uniformly refined grids. The finest grid was then modified to coarsen the wall-normal spacing to create a grid suitable for the wall-function implementation in FUN3D code. A hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes/large eddy simulation (RANS/LES) turbulence modeling approach is used for these simulations. Time-averaged and instantaneous solutions obtained on these grids are compared with the measured data. These CFD solutions are used as input to a FfowcsWilliams-Hawkings (FW-H) noise propagation code to compute the farfield noise levels. The agreement of the computed results with the experimental data improves as the grid is refined.

Vatsa, Veer N.

The Martini 3 Lipidome: Expanded and Refined Parameters Improve Lipid Phase Behavior

Lipid membranes are central to cellular life. Complementing experiments, computational modeling has been essential in unraveling complex lipid-biomolecule interactions, crucial in both academia and industry. The Martini model, a coarse-grained force field for efficient molecular dynamics simulations, is widely used to study membrane phenomena but has faced limitations, particularly in capturing realistic lipid phase behavior. Here, we present refined Martini 3 lipid models with a mapping scheme that distinguishes lipid tails that differ by just two carbon atoms, enhancing the structural resolution and thermodynamic accuracy of model membrane systems including ternary mixtures. The expanded Martini lipid library includes thousands of models, enabling simulations of complex and biologically relevant systems. These advancements establish Martini as a robust platform for lipid-based simulations across diverse fields.

Lipids

Using multiple high-resolution datasets to benchmark the energy exascale earth system model (E3SM) for renewable resource assessment

The United States is accelerating its shift toward a renewable energy system. However, renewable resources, which harness energy from the Earth system, are susceptible to both present-day climate variability and future climate change. For example, variations in regional climate can alter renewable energy production patterns and site viability. The use of high-resolution climate model projections can therefore facilitate and may be critical to long-term planning of renewable energy investments. However, climate models must first be validated for renewable resource assessment. This research employs multiple high-spatiotemporal-resolution datasets to assess the capability of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 North American Regionally Refined Model (E3SMv2-NARRM) for predicting multi-year climatological values of solar and wind energy capacity factors in the continental U.S., with a focus on regional and seasonal variability. Present-day E3SMv2-NARRM simulations are compared with reported utility-scale production data obtained from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition, E3SMv2-NARRM data are evaluated against non-climate benchmark models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, including the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit and the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), as well as three wind energy datasets from PLUSWIND. Our analysis indicates that solar capacity factors from E3SM closely match those from the NSRDB dataset. However, both datasets tend to overestimate values by 10% in comparison to EIA data. Furthermore, biases in wind capacity factors within E3SM are notably pronounced in the West Coast regions, where the seasonal cycle diverges from EIA data.

Energy forecasting, Capacity factor, Renewable ene