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DOE OSTI2021

Experimental workflow to estimate model parameters for evaluating long term viscoelastic response of CO2 storage caprocks

Understanding the time-dependent behavior of reservoir and sealing formations is critical to assessing risks associated with geological carbon storage since time-dependent deformation strongly influences mechanical responses of some rock types. Many studies have evaluated the risk of CO2 leakage and induced seismicity by assuming poroelastic rheology in sealing formations. Few have considered viscoelastic or other time-dependent responses, where the existing literature adopts 1D models to represent long-term time-dependent responses. This is primarily because to date, the general form of a reasonable 3D time-dependent model for rocks remains unclear. In this paper, we address this unclear issue by proposing a new workflow to select constitutive modeling parameters to evaluate if a 3D viscoelastic model is reasonable using several-hour-long experimental data and a power-law response to extrapolate to the decades-long time frames of interest in geologic carbon storage. To provide experimental data, we conducted multi-level loading/unloading triaxial relaxation tests with four rock types. The experimental results showed that the maximum load relaxation observed is approximately 49%, with some rock types showing as little as 1.4%. Using a simple linear viscoelastic model, parameters were chosen such that a maximum deviation of 1.5 MPa in axial stress and 7 MPa in radial stress was attained with the extrapolated 30-year data. We found that a reasonable parameter range for the normalized elastic modulus is 0.1~2 for rocks with significant time-dependent responses and 0.01~0.06 for those with small time-dependent responses. No matter how significant time-dependent responses are for rocks considered, our results showed that the relaxation time has a general range of 1~10^10 s, whose time scale can be one or two orders higher than a time frame typically envisioned for CO2 injection projects.

Stress relaxation, 3D time-dependent model, viscoe↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian-based response expansion and uncertainty quantification using sparse measurement sets

Systems subjected to dynamic loads often require monitoring of their vibrational response, but limitations on the total number and placement of the measurement sensors can hinder the data-collection process. Here, we present an indirect approach to estimate a system’s full-field dynamic response, including all uninstrumented locations, using response measurements from sensors sparsely located on the system. This approach relies on Bayesian inference that utilizes a system model to estimate the full-field response and quantify the uncertainty in these estimates. By casting the estimation problem in the frequency domain, this approach utilizes the modal frequency response functions as a natural, frequency-dependent weighting scheme for the system mode shapes to perform the expansion. This frequency-dependent weighting scheme enables an accurate expansion, even with highly correlated mode shapes that may arise from spatial aliasing due to the limited number of sensors, provided these correlated modes do not have natural frequencies that are closely spaced. Furthermore, the inherent regularization mechanism that arises in this Bayesian-based procedure enables the utilization of the full set of system mode shapes for the expansion, rather than any reduced subset. This approach can produce estimates when considering a single realization of the measured responses, and with some modification, it can also produce estimates for power spectral density matrices measured from many realizations of the responses from statistically stationary random processes. A simply supported beam provides an initial numerical validation, and a cylindrical test article excited by acoustic loads in a reverberation chamber provides experimental validation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimising response to an introduction of African swine fever in wild pigs

African swine fever virus (ASFv) is a virulent pathogen that threatens domestic swine industries globally and persists in wild boar populations in some countries. Persistence in wild boar can challenge elimination and prevent disease-free status, making it necessary to address wild swine in proactive response plans. In the United States, invasive wild pigs are abundant and found across a wide range of ecological conditions that could drive different epidemiological dynamics among populations. Information on the size of the control areas required to rapidly eliminate the ASFv in wild pigs and how this area should change with management constraints and local ecology is needed to optimize response planning. We developed a spatially explicit disease transmission model contrasting wild pig movement and contact ecology in two ecosystems in Southeastern United States. We simulated ASFv spread and determined the optimal response area (reported as the radius of a circle) for eliminating ASFv rapidly over a range of detection times (when ASFv was detected relative to the true date of introduction), culling capacities (proportion of wild pigs in the culling zone removed weekly) and wild pig densities. Large radii for response areas (14 km) were needed under most conditions but could be shortened with early detection (≤ 8 weeks) and high culling capacities (≥ 15% weekly). Under most conditions, the ASFv was eliminated in less than 22 weeks using optimal control radii, although ecological conditions with high rates of wild pig movement required higher culling capacities (≥ 10% weekly) for elimination within 1 year. The results highlight the importance of adjusting response plans based on local ecology and show that wild pig movement is a better predictor of the optimal response area than the number of ASFv cases early in the outbreak trajectory. Furthermore, our framework provides a tool for determining optimal control plans in different areas, guiding expectations of response impacts, and planning resources needed for rapid elimination.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning-based fast frequency response control for a VSC-HVDC system

An HVDC system can realize a very fast frequency response to the disturbed system under a contingency because its active power control is decoupled from the frequency deviation. However, most of existing HVDC frequency control strategies are coupled with system primary frequency control and secondary frequency control. Since the traditional system frequency control is dominated by the thermal generators, the advantage of the fast response of the HVDC system is not made fully used. The development of a frequency response estimation based on a machine learning algorithm provides another approach to improve the frequency response capability of the HVDC system. Different from other frequency deviation tracking strategies, a machine learning based HVDC frequency response control can directly increase the power flow of a HVDC system by estimation of the system generator or load lost. In this paper, a fast frequency response control using a HVDC system for a large power system disturbance based on the multivariate random forest regression (MRFR) algorithm is proposed. The simulation is carried out with an integrated power system model based on the North American interconnections. The simulation results indicate that the proposed MRFR based frequency response control can significantly improve the frequency low point during an event, while stabilizing the frequency in advance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) - Beta Version [Slides]

Due to high fossil fuel imports, high electricity rates, an unreliable electricity grid, and 100% renewable electricity goals, demand response can play a crucial role for the Puerto Rico electricity grid. The Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) is a spreadsheet-based tool in which users can estimate the potential impacts of demand response, energy efficiency, and VRE and storage adoption in Puerto Rico from 2021 through 2040. The tool includes projections for solar, wind, and battery adoption based on released RFPs and energy targets (including Act-17 2019) to generate a projected net load profile for each hour through 2040. Based on user inputs and default assumptions, the tool also projects load profile impacts of demand response and energy efficiency, and is specifically focused on highlighting projected demand response technical potential. This demand response technical potential can be used by local utilities, regulators, program administrators, or researchers to help design demand response programs for larger impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1987

Enhancement of phototropic response to a range of light doses in Triticum aestivum coleoptiles in clinostat-simulated microgravity

The phototropic dose-response relationship has been determined for Triticum aestivum cv. Broom coleoptiles growing on a purpose-built clinostat apparatus providing gravity compensation by rotation about a horizontal axis at 2 rev min-1. These data are compared with data sets obtained with the clinostat axis vertical and stationary, as a 1 g control, and rotating vertically to examine clinostat effects other than gravity compensation. Triticum at 1 g follows the well-established pattern of other cereal coleoptiles with a first positive curvature at low doses, followed by an indifferent response region, and a second positive response at progressively increasing doses. However, these response regions lie at higher dose levels than reported for Avena. There is no significant difference between the responses observed with the clinostat axis vertical in the rotating and stationary modes, but gravity compensation by horizontal rotation increases the magnitude of first and second positive curvatures some threefold at 100 min after stimulation. The indifferent response is replaced by a significant curvature towards the light source, but remains apparent as a reduced curvature response at these dose levels.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Flight Research Overview of WSPR, a Pilot Project for Sonic Boom Community Response

In support of NASAs ongoing effort to bring supersonic commercial travel to the public, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center and NASA Langley Research Center, in cooperation with other industry organizations, conducted a flight research experiment to identify the methods, tools, and best practices for a large-scale quiet (or low) sonic boom community human response test. The name of the effort was Waveforms and Sonic boom Perception and Response. Such tests will go towards building a dataset that governing agencies like the Federal Aviation Administration and International Civil Aviation Organization will use to establish regulations for acceptable sound levels of overland sonic booms. Until WSPR, there had never been an effort that studied the response of people in their own homes and performing daily activities to non-traditional, low sonic booms.WSPR was a NASA collaborative effort with several industry partners, in response to a NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate Research Opportunities in Aeronautics. The primary contractor was Wyle. Other partners included Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, Pennsylvania State University, Tetra Tech, and Fidell Associates, Inc.A major objective of the effort included exposing a community with the sonic boom magnitudes and occurrences expected in high-air traffic regions with a network of supersonic commercial aircraft in place. Low-level sonic booms designed to simulate those produced by the next generation of commercial supersonic aircraft were generated over a small residential community. The sonic boom footprint was recorded with an autonomous wireless microphone array that spanned the entire community. Human response data was collected using multiple survey methods. The research focused on essential elements of community response testing including subject recruitment, survey methods, instrumentation systems, flight planning and operations, and data analysis methods.This paper focuses on NASAs role in the efforts logistics and operations including human response subject recruitment, the operational processes involved in implementing the surveys throughout the community, instrumentation systems, logistics, flight planning, and flight operations. Findings discussed in this paper include critical lessons learned in all of those areas. The paper also discusses flight operations results. Analysis of the accuracy and repeatability of planning and executing the unique aircraft maneuver used to generate low sonic booms concluded that the sonic booms had overpressures within 0.15 pounds-per-square-feet of the planned values for 76 of t he attempts. Similarly, 90 of the attempts to generate low sonic booms within the community were successful.

sonic booms↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Flight Research Overview of WSPR, a Pilot Project for Sonic Boom Community Response

In support of the ongoing effort by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to bring supersonic commercial travel to the public, the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center and the NASA Langley Research Center, in cooperation with other industry organizations, conducted a flight research experiment to identify the methods, tools, and best practices for a large-scale quiet (or low) sonic boom community human response test. The name of the effort was Waveforms and Sonic boom Perception and Response (WSPR). Such tests will be applied to building a dataset that governing agencies such as the Federal Aviation Administration and the International Civil Aviation Organization will use to establish regulations for acceptable sound levels of overland sonic booms. The WSPR test was the first such effort that studied responses to non-traditional low sonic booms while the subject persons were in their own homes and performing daily activities.The WSPR test was a NASA collaborative effort with several industry partners, in response to a NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate Research Opportunities in Aeronautics. The primary contractor was Wyle (El Segundo, California). Other partners included Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation (Savannah, Georgia); Pennsylvania State University (University Park, Pennsylvania); Tetra Tech, Inc. (Pasadena, California); and Fidell Associates, Inc. (Woodland Hills, California).A major objective of the effort included exposing a community to the sonic boom magnitudes and occurrences that would be expected to occur in high-air traffic regions having a network of supersonic commercial aircraft in place. Low-level sonic booms designed to simulate those produced by the next generation of commercial supersonic aircraft were generated over a small residential community. The sonic boom footprint was recorded with an autonomous wireless microphone array that spanned the entire community. Human response data were collected using multiple survey methods. The research focused on essential elements of community response testing including subject recruitment, survey methods, instrumentation systems, flight planning and operations, and data analysis methods.This paper focuses on the NASA role in the logistics and operations of the effort, including human response subject recruitment, the operational processes involved in implementing the surveys throughout the community, instrumentation systems, logistics, flight planning, and flight operations. Findings discussed in this paper include critical lessons learned in all of the above-mentioned areas, as well as flight operations results. Analysis of the accuracy and repeatability of planning and executing the unique aircraft maneuver used to generate low sonic booms concluded that the sonic booms had overpressures within 0.15 lbft2 of the planned values for 76 percent of the attempts. Similarly, 90 percent of the attempts to generate low sonic booms within the community were successful.

community response↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-response Curves

NASA will soon be collecting noise-annoyance community survey data as the X-59 aircraft flies supersonically over several communities in the USA. Sparse measurements of the X-59 sonic thumps will be used together with physics-based simulations to estimate noise doses at survey participant locations. These dose estimates have associated error that affects the accuracy of modeled dose-response curves, which can result in misestimation of annoyance. The precision in dose-response curves is also a consideration in selecting the number of survey participants. To enable pretest studies of dose error and precision, simulated dose-response data were generated based on NASA’s Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 test. The data included various degrees of dose error and sample size. Frequentist multilevel logistic regression models were fit to the true and perturbed dose-response data. Simple proportional relationships were identified between the model parameters and the perturbation standard deviation. The summary dose-response curves illustrate the impact on accuracy if dose error is not accounted for in the model. The precision in the dose-response curves is also shown as the number of participants and degree of participation is varied. Finally, sampling variability is illustrated by showing the dose-response curves for several replicates with random draws of participants and errors.

X-59↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-Response Curves

X-59↗

NASA NTRS2024

Forced Response Aeromechanics Analysis in MATLAB®-Based Environment Code With Application to Distortion-Tolerant Fan R24 Blade Geometry

Researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center have developed a research-level code for forced response analysis for turbomachinery that provides a streamlined framework for aeromechanics analysis, as well as for generating Goodman diagrams. The Forced Response Aeromechanics Analysis in a MATLAB-Based Environment (FRAAME, Version 1) code is designed to accept blade surface unsteady pressure time histories generated by three-dimensional (3D) Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) code TURBO and modal displacements, modal stresses, and static stresses generated via expanded ANSYS® (Ansys, Inc.) cyclic symmetry analysis. The code’s looping structure allows for largescale analyses, including many blade surface pressure files, modal displacements, and modal stress files for full annulus forced response analysis, including a modal summation method for multiple engine orders and modes. This code is applied to the R24 fan geometry for the Boundary Layer Ingesting Inlet/Distortion-Tolerant Fan (BLI2DTF) project, a propulsion system being developed to increase the fuel efficiency of future aircraft, to serve as validation of experimental data as well as external simulation results. This tool’s functional, modular form is intended to allow users to make modifications easily. Those modifications can include requests for information for any step in the analysis process, as well as adding various functions to compute additional information of interest. It is also written, given sufficient input information, as a general blade geometry forced response solver that is not necessarily specific to the R24 geometry but is used here for verification of code functionality and accuracy. Although forced response analysis tools are also available in commercially available code packages, the post-processing FRAAME code offers reliable, fast, and scalable forced response analysis and Goodman diagram generation for large cases utilizing, specifically, TURBO and ANSYS® results information in an effort to streamline forced response and high cycle fatigue analyses.

Aeromechanics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Shading contributes to Sphagnum decline in response to warming

Experimental warming of an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota has caused a rapid decline in the productivity and areal cover of Sphagnum mosses, affecting whole-ecosystem carbon balance and biogeochemistry. Direct effects of elevated temperature and the attendant drying are most likely the primary cause of the effects on Sphagnum, but there may also be responses to the increased shading from shrubs, which increased with increasing temperature. To evaluate the independent effects of reduction in light availability and deposition of shrub litter on Sphagnum productivity, small plots with shrubs removed were laid out adjacent to the warming experiment on hummocks and hollows in three blocks and with five levels of shading. Four plots were covered with neutral density shade cloth to simulate shading from shrubs of 30%–90% reduction in light; one plot was left open. Growth of Sphagnum angustifolium/fallax and S. divinum declined linearly with increasing shade in hollows, but there was no response to shade on hummocks, where higher irradiance in the open plots may have been inhibitory. Shading caused etiolation of Sphagnum—they were thin and spindly under the deepest shade. A dense mat of shrub litter, corresponding to the amount of shrub litter produced in response to warming, did not inhibit Sphagnum growth or cause increases in potentially toxic base cations. CO 2 exchange and chlorophyll-a fluorescence of S. angustifolium/fallax from the 30% and 90% shade cloth plots were measured in the laboratory. Light response curves indicate that maximal light saturated photosynthesis was 42% greater for S. angustifolium/fallax grown under 30% shade cloth relative to plants grown under 90% shade cloth. The response of Sphagnum growth in response to increasing shade is consistent with the hypothesis that increased shade resulting from shrub expansion in response to experimental warming contributed to reduced Sphagnum growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Caught in headlights: Captive white-tailed deer responses to variations in vehicle lighting during imminent collision scenarios

Vehicle collisions with deer (Odocoileus spp.) cause billions of dollars in damages and injure thousands of drivers every year in the United States, and few mitigation methods have proven effective. However, recent research suggests that vehicle lighting might influence white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; hereafter, deer) responses to oncoming vehicles. Most new vehicles are manufactured with light emitting diode (LED) headlights which differ in total radiance and wavelength of light emitted compared to the previous industry standard of tungstenhalogen (halogen) headlights. Also, frontal vehicle illumination through rear-facing lighting has shown promise in enhancing deer responses to vehicles, but its effectiveness has not been tested under various headlight conditions (headlight type or intensity). As such, it remains unclear how these aspects of vehicle lighting affect deer responses to an approaching vehicle. We used 23 captive, wild-type deer to investigate how variations in vehicle lighting affect deer responses to an approaching vehicle at night, when most collisions occur. We released deer into a 95 m long, 3 m wide chute and approached them from the opposite end with an electric golf cart outfitted with two versions of stock 2017–2020 Ford Fusion headlights (LED and halogen) and a 51 cm rear-facing lightbar to test how vehicle lighting affected deer avoidance behaviors in an imminent, head-on collision scenario. Each deer received eight lighting treatments consisting of unique combinations of headlight type (LED vs. halogen), light intensity (low vs. high beam), and rear-facing lighting (lightbar off vs. on). We measured deer alert and flight behavior using infrared videography. We found that the halogen, high beam, lightbar off treatment had the greatest probability of evoking an alert response. Furthermore, when the lightbar was off, high beams appeared to increase alert probability for halogen headlights. Also, we found evidence that high beam, halogen headlights tend to increase alert probability over high beam, LED headlights, when the lighbar was off. We found no effect of our lighting treatments on deer alert distance, flight probability, or flight initiation distance. Across all behavioral responses, the random effect deer ID explained 0.86–9.19 × more variation than our lighting treatments, reflecting large differences in responses among deer. Overall, we found that vehicle lighting can impact deer behavior during an imminent, head-on collision scenario, although lighting was ineffective at increasing favorable flight behaviors. Future research should investigate how vehicle lighting treatments affect free-ranging, wild deer in a variety of real-world scenarios and at longer approach distances.

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) Deer be↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dendritic cells focus CTL responses toward highly conserved and topologically important HIV-1 epitopes

During early HIV-1 infection, immunodominant T cell responses to highly variable epitopes lead to the establishment of immune escape virus variants. Here we assessed a type 1-polarized monocyte-derived dendritic cell (MDC1)-based approach to selectively elicit cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses against highly conserved and topologically important HIV-1 epitopes in HIV-1-infected individuals from the Thailand RV254/SEARCH 010 cohort who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) during early infection (Fiebig stages I-IV). Autologous MDC1 were used as antigen presenting cells to induce in vitro CTL responses against HIV-1 Gag, Pol, Env, and Nef as determined by flow cytometry and ELISpot assay. Ultra-conserved or topologically important antigens were respectively identified using the Epigraph tool and a structure-based network analysis approach and compared to overlapping peptides spanning the Gag proteome. MDC1 presenting either the overlapping Gag, Epigraph, or Network 14-21mer peptide pools consistently activated and expanded HIV-1-specific T cells to epitopes identified at the 9-13mer peptide level. Interestingly, some CTL responses occurred outside known or expected HLA associations, providing evidence of new HLA-associated CTL epitopes. Comparative analyses demonstrated more sequence conservation among Epigraph antigens but a higher magnitude of CTL responses to Network and Gag peptide groups. Importantly, CTL responses against topologically constrained Gag epitopes contained in both the Network and Gag peptide pools were selectively enhanced in the Network pool-initiated cultures. Our study supports the use of MDC1 as a therapeutic strategy to induce and focus CTL responses toward putative fitness-constrained regions of HIV-1 to prevent immune escape and control HIV-1 infection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using taxa-based approaches to delineate stream macroinvertebrate assemblage responses to stressor gradients in modified alluvial agroecosystems

Alluvial plain landscapes are some of the most agriculturally productive lands in the world but often have modified stream ecosystems due to cultivation history. This context requires consideration when establishing water quality management goals. We analyzed state water quality databases to demonstrate that Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) ecoregion streams have elevated specific conductivity (SC) and nutrients and lower macroinvertebrate local and regional taxa pools compared to streams in other ecoregions, potentially reducing the efficacy of traditional biomonitoring approaches within the region. To overcome these challenges, we used threshold indicator taxa analysis (TITAN) to compare macroinvertebrate assemblage responses to water quality gradients among ecoregions in Mississippi. We identified individual taxa and assemblage-level responses to increasing water quality degradation in MAP streams. Observed responses occurred at higher concentrations for SC, total organic carbon (TOC) and total phosphorus (TP), but not total nitrogen (TN) relative to other ecoregions. These responses appeared to be driven by a large proportion of indicator taxa considered tolerant or unresponsive in other ecoregions, responding negatively to increasing water quality stressors in MAP streams. Our observed assemblage-level stressor responses to WQ gradients in MAP streams demonstrate shifting tolerance in highly altered ecosystems may require adjustments to recovery expectations but also provide useful measures for monitoring improvements in regional water quality. For example, our observed macroinvertebrate assemblage response to increasing TP identified a management goal similar to guidance based on distributional analysis of water quality data within the MAP ecoregion (0.11 vs 0.128 mg L –1 ) and thus provide some biological basis for previously identified nutrient goals for the region. Our approach can guide and monitor success of nutrient reduction efforts in MAP watersheds and other alluvial plain agroecosystems where reference conditions do not exist, and local and regional taxa pools are less diverse and may not support full recovery of ecological assemblages. While our results are promising, they should also be compared with more sensitive and less habitat-limited biological assemblages (e.g., algae or bacteria) to better understand complex ecological responses to best management practices designed to increase sustainability of high production agricultural regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Leaf Trait Plasticity Alters Competitive Ability and Functioning of Simulated Tropical Trees in Response to Elevated Carbon Dioxide

The response of tropical ecosystems to elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) remains a critical uncertainty in projections of future climate. Here, we investigate how leaf trait plasticity in response to elevated CO 2 alters projections of tropical forest competitive dynamics and functioning. We use vegetation demographic model simulations to quantify how plasticity in leaf mass per area and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio alter the responses of carbon uptake, evapotranspiration, and competitive ability to a doubling of CO 2 in a tropical forest. Observationally constrained leaf trait plasticity in response to CO 2 fertilization reduces the degree to which tropical tree carbon uptake is affected by a doubling of CO 2 (up to -14.7% as compared to a case with no plasticity; 95% confidence interval [CI95%] -14.4 to -15.0). It also diminishes evapotranspiration (up to -7.0%, CI95% -6.4 to -7.7), and lowers competitive ability in comparison to a tree with no plasticity. Consideration of leaf trait plasticity to elevated CO 2 lowers tropical ecosystem carbon uptake and evapotranspirative cooling in the absence of changes in plant-type abundance. However, “plastic” responses to high CO 2 which maintain higher levels of plant productivity, many of which fall outside of the observed range of response, are potentially more competitively advantageous, thus, including changes in plant type abundance may mitigate these decreases in ecosystem functioning. Models that explicitly represent competition between plants with alternative leaf trait plasticity in response to elevated CO 2 are needed to capture these influences on tropical forest functioning and large-scale climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric River Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project

The atmospheric river (AR) response to Arctic sea ice loss in the Northern hemisphere winter is investigated using simulations from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Results have shown that the midlatitude responses are dominated by dynamic effects. Poleward of around 60°N, the dynamic and thermodynamic effects cancel each other, resulting in relatively small responses. The response uncertainty can be characterized by leading uncertainty modes, with the responses over the Pacific and Atlantic projecting onto the northeastward extension and equatorward shift mode, respectively. In addition, the responses seem to be mean state-dependent: under the same forcing, models with more poleward-located climatological ARs tend to show stronger equatorward shifts over the Atlantic; over the Pacific, models with more westward-located climatological AR core tend to show stronger northeastward extensions. Finally, these relationships highlight the importance of improving the AR climatology representation on reducing the response uncertainty to Arctic sea ice loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cross-platform analysis of public responses to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence on Twitter and Reddit

Online social networks (OSNs) have become a powerful tool to study collective human responses to extreme events such as earthquakes. Most previous research concentrated on a single platform and utilized users’ behaviors on a single platform to study people’s general responses. In this study, we explore the characteristics of people’s behaviors on different OSNs and conduct a cross-platform analysis of public responses to earthquakes. Our findings support the Uses and Gratification theory that users on Reddit and Twitter are engaging with platforms that they may feel best reflect their sense of self. Using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes as our study cases, we collected 510,579 tweets and 45,770 Reddit posts (including 1437 submissions and 44,333 comments) to answer the following research questions: (1) What were the similarities and differences between public responses on Twitter and Reddit? (2) Considering the different mechanisms of Twitter and Reddit, what unique information of public responses can we learn from Reddit as compared with Twitter? By answering these research questions, we aim to bridge the gap of cross-platform public responses research towards natural hazards. Our study evinces that the users on the two different platforms have both different topics of interest and different sentiments towards the same earthquake, which indicates the necessity of investigating cross-platform OSNs to reveal a more comprehensive picture of people’s general public responses towards certain disasters. Our analysis also finds that r/conspiracy subreddit is one of the major venues where people discuss the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes on Reddit and different misinformation/conspiracies spread on Twitter and Reddit platforms (e.g., “Big one is coming” on Twitter and “Nuclear test” on Reddit).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗