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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerothermal Analysis and Environment Predictions for the Mars Sample Retrieval Lander (SRL)

Mars Sample Retrieval Lander (SRL) is the next mission to Mars, and an integral part of the proposed Mars Sample Return (MSR) Program. Aerothermal Analysis of the SRL capsule takes advantage of the design and analysis of the Mars Science Laboratory and the Mars 2020 missions, findings from the MEDLI and MEDLI2 heatshield instrumentation campaigns, and developments in predictive capabilities over the last 20 years. In particular, SRL is being designed to enter the Mars atmosphere at velocities as high as 8 km/s, which would be the highest for a Mars entry, and is expected to encounter additional shock layer radiation physics compared to previous missions to Mars. This paper presents the status of analysis including the overall methodology, models and assumptions of the aerothermal environment predictions, with a focus on differences from the approaches and modeling used for Mars 2020 and MSL.

Mars↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Prevalence of Precipitation From Polar Supercooled Clouds

Supercooled clouds substantially impact polar surface energy budgets, but large-scale models often underestimate their occurrence, which motivates accurately establishing metrics of basic processes. An analysis of long-term measurements at Utqiaġvik, Alaska, and McMurdo Station, Antarctica, combines lidar-validated use of soundings to identify supercooled cloud layers and colocated ground-based profiling radar measurements to quantify cloud base precipitation. We find that more than 85 % (75 %) of sampled supercooled layers are precipitating over the Arctic (Antarctic) site, with more than 75 % (50 %) precipitating continuously to the surface. Such high frequencies can be reconciled with substantially lesser spaceborne estimates by considering differences in radar hydrometeor detection sensitivity. While ice precipitation into supercooled clouds from aloft is common, we also find that the great majority of supercooled cloud layers without ice falling into them are themselves continuously generating precipitation. Such sustained primary ice formation is consistent with continuous activation of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particles (INPs), suggesting that supercooled cloud formation is a principal gateway to ice formation at temperatures greater than ∼−38 ∘C over polar regions. The prevalence of weak precipitation fluxes is also consistent with supercooled cloud longevity and with well-observed and widely simulated case studies. An analysis of colocated microwave radiometer retrievals suggests that weak precipitation fluxes can be nonetheless consequential to moisture budgets for supercooled clouds owing to small liquid water paths. The results here also demonstrate that the observed abundance of mixed-phase clouds can vary substantially with instrument sensitivity and methodology. Finally, we suggest that these ground-based precipitation rate statistics offer valuable guidance for improving the representation of polar cloud processes in large-scale models.

Supercooled clouds↗

NASA NTRS2022

Updated Trends of the Stratospheric Ozone Vertical Distribution in the 60°S-60°N Latitude Range Based on the LOTUS Regression Model

This study presents an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60°S - 60°N latitude range over the 2000 - 2020 period using an updated version of the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere (LOTUS) regression model that was used to evaluate such trends up to 2016 for the last WMO Ozone Assessment (2018). In addition to the derivation of detailed trends as a function of latitude and vertical coordinates, the regressions are performed with the data sets averaged over broad latitude bands, i.e., 60°S–35°S, 20°S–20°N and 35°N–60°N. The same methodology as in the last Assessment is applied to combine trends in these broad latitude bands in order to compare the results with the previous studies. Longitudinally resolved merged satellite records are also considered in order to provide a better comparison with trends retrieved from ground-based records, e.g., lidar, ozone sondes, Umkehr, microwave and Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometers at selected stations where long-term time series are available. The study includes a comparison with trends derived from the REF-C2 simulations of the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). This work confirms past results showing an ozone increase in the upper stratosphere, which is now significant in the three broad latitude bands. The increase is largest in the northern and southern hemisphere midlatitudes, with ~2.2%/decade at ~2.1 hPa, and ~2.1%/decade at ~3.2 hPa respectively, compared to ~1.6%/decade at ~2.6 hPa in the tropics. New trend signals have emerged from the records, such as a significant decrease of ozone in the tropics around 35 hPa and a non-significant increase of ozone in the southern midlatitudes at about 20 hPa. Non-significant negative ozone trends are derived in the lowermost stratosphere, with the most pronounced trends in the tropics. While a very good agreement is obtained between trends from merged satellite records and the CCMI-1 REF-C2 simulation in the upper stratosphere, observed negative trends in the lower stratosphere are not reproduced by models at southern and, in particular, at northern midlatitudes, where models report an ozone increase. However, the lower stratospheric trend uncertainties are quite large, for both measured and modelled trends. Finally, 2000-2020 stratospheric ozone trends derived from the ground-based and longitudinally resolved satellite records are in reasonable agreement over the European Alpine and tropical regions, while at the Lauder station in the southern hemisphere mid-latitudes they show some differences.

Stratospheric ozone trends↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Expanding the Time Dimension of Hyperspectral Infrared Sounding Observations: Designing the NUCAPS-Forecast System

Low Earth orbit (LEO) hyper-spectral infrared (IR) sounders have significant yet untapped potential for characterizing thermodynamic environments of convective initiation and ongoing convection. While LEO soundings are of enormous value to weather forecasters, they cannot provide the temporal resolution needed to resolve the rapidly evolving thermodynamics of the convective environment. A novel methodology was developed to extend snapshots of LEO soundings forward in time up to six hours into the future and has been made available within the NOAA National Weather Service Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) for testing in a quasi-operational setting. This methodology is based on parcel forward-trajectory calculations from the satellite observing time to recreate future soundings of temperature and moisture at regularly gridded intervals in space and time. The soundings are based on NOAA-Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) retrievals from the Suomi NPP and NOAA-20 satellite platforms to allow for rapid near-real time product processing. Science code was transitioned to operational production in 2019 and the product, NUCAPS-Forecast, was tested at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment in 2019 and 2021. Forecaster feedback has led to improving the product and processing system to address product limitations and improve its applicability for pre-convective forecasting. This presentation highlights the design of the NUCAPS-Forecast system. Solutions were tested and implemented to remove excess moisture and conjoin forward-trajected parcels into vertical profiles for calculating grids of stability indices. Additionally, use cases that explore the tendencies of derived convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) were investigated. When evaluated against gridded, hourly accumulated rainfall obtained from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) observational data set areas with elevated CAPE (reduced CIN) are shown to be associated with areas of precipitation and increase confidence the LEO soundings advected forward in time physically represent atmospheric processes. These results suggest that adiabatic parcel advection of LEO satellite sounding snapshots forward in time exhibits skill in discriminating locations and times that are more likely to lead to convective initiation. Leveraging trajectory modeling to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of LEO IR sounding observations today demonstrates the value of these observations from the future constellation of JPSS satellites and GeoXO mission.

weather↗

NASA NTRS1989

Detecting and diagnosing SSME faults using an autoassociative neural network topology

An effort is underway at the University of Tennessee Space Institute to develop diagnostic expert system methodologies based on the analysis of patterns of behavior of physical mechanisms. In this approach, fault diagnosis is conceptualized as the mapping or association of patterns of sensor data to patterns representing fault conditions. Neural networks are being investigated as a means of storing and retrieving fault scenarios. Neural networks offer several powerful features in fault diagnosis, including (1) general pattern matching capabilities, (2) resistance to noisy input data, (3) the ability to be trained by example, and (4) the potential for implementation on parallel computer architectures. This paper presents (1) an autoassociative neural network topology, i.e. the network input and output is identical when properly trained, and hence learning is unsupervised; (2) the training regimen used; and (3) the response of the system to inputs representing both previously observed and unkown fault scenarios. The effects of noise on the integrity of the diagnosis are also evaluated.

Ali, M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tracking the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption Stratospheric Aerosol and Trace Gas Plumes Using Machine Learning

On January 15, 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (hereafter, Hunga Tonga) submarine volcano had an explosive eruption that thrusted ash, gases, and water vapor through the troposphere into the stratosphere and mesosphere. Previous studies manually tracked the aerosol and trace gas plumes over time across different positions in the southern hemisphere. Using data retrieved from low earth orbiting satellite instruments (e.g., OMPS, OMI, and CALIPSO), this research demonstrates how open-source machine learning (ML) models, like Meta’s Segment Anything Model (SAM), with prompt engineering can perform automatic plume tracking following the Hunga Tonga eruption. This extensible methodology, and modular data processing and modeling pipeline using NASA Earthdata and Openscapes, establishes a framework for systematically and rapidly studying extreme events, including volcanic eruptions and large-scale wildfires. By combining advanced machine learning techniques, such as SAM’s zero-shot learning, with large volumes of remote sensing data, this work demonstrates how AI and open science can accelerate research and generate actionable results. The tools and technologies presented here can help translate earth science to action from NASA’s current and future Earth observing satellite missions (e.g., the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS)), and assist researchers and stakeholders in understanding, mapping, and responding to natural disasters and extreme events in a changing world.

David M. Giles↗

NASA NTRS2001

Use of Remotely-Sensed Rainfall Data in Global Modeling and Data Assimilation

Precipitation observations derived from microwave sensors available from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the proposed Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) can provide crucial information needed for improving global modeling, data assimilation, and numerical weather prediction. New methodologies are being developed at NASA to make effective use of this new data type in these applications. Currently, global analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation, especially in the tropics. We show that assimilating 6-h averaged TRMM rainfall retrievals improves not only the hydrological cycle but also key climate parameters such as clouds, radiation, and the upper tropospheric moisture in the analysis produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System. The improved analysis also leads to improved short-range forecasts in the tropics. The above results were obtained using a variational assimilation procedure that uses rainfall observations to derive moisture and temperature tendency corrections every 6 hours to compensate for errors arising from imperfect initial conditions and deficiencies in the model physics. We will describe a developmental path towards using space-borne rainfall data to empirically estimate and correct for state-dependent systematic errors in parameterized model physics. The study provides a demonstration of the potential of using remote-sensed rainfall data from microwave instruments to improve the 4-dimensional global datasets for climate analysis and numerical weather prediction.

Hou, Arthur↗

NASA NTRS2012

The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) seeks to improve short-term, regional weather forecasts using unique NASA products and capabilities SPoRT has developed a unique, real-time configuration of the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)WRF (ARW) that integrates all SPoRT modeling research data: (1) 2-km SPoRT Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Composite, (2) 3-km LIS with 1-km Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVFs) (3) 45-km AIRS retrieved profiles. Transitioned this real-time forecast to NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) as deterministic model at Experimental Forecast Program (EFP). Feedback from forecasters/participants and internal evaluation of SPoRT-WRF shows a cool, dry bias that appears to suppress convection likely related to methodology for assimilation of AIRS profiles Version 2 of the SPoRT-WRF will premier at the 2012 EFP and include NASA physics, cycling data assimilation methodology, better coverage of precipitation forcing, and new GVFs

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS2023

A Nowcasting Approach for Low Earth Orbit Hyperspectral Infrared Soundings Within the Convective Environment

North America↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Impact of Pixel Size on the Characterization of Deep Convective Clouds for Calibration

The NASA CERES project provides the scientific community the observed TOA SW and LW fluxes for climate monitoring and climate model validation. CERES utilizes hourly geostationary imager derived broadband fluxes, which rely on the channel radiances and associated cloud retrievals, to estimate the broadband fluxes between CERES observations. This requires stable imager visible channel calibration, which the CERES project verifies by utilizing deep convective clouds (DCC) as an invariant Earth target. GSICS, which is an international collaboration, is also evaluating the DCC invariant target calibration methodology to provide consistent calibration coefficients across geostationary imagers anchored to the Aqua-MODIS calibration reference. Tropical DCC are the brightest, coldest, most Lambertian, top of the atmosphere Earth targets. The DCC invariant target calibration methodology relies on a large ensemble of tropical DCC-identified pixel-level reflectances, which are histogrammed to find the mode reflectance of the probability density function (PDF). The imager stability is monitored by tracking the monthly DCC PDF mode reflectance over time. Radiometric scaling is accomplished by ratioing the GEO and VIIRS DCC mode reflectance values. The PDF shape and mode dependency on sensor pixel resolution, which varies among sensors, is unknown. This study will characterize the impact of pixel resolution on the DCC PDFs by aggregating Landsat 30-m pixel reflectances into various coarser pixel resolutions ranging from 100-m to 4-km, and comparing the corresponding PDF statistics. This analysis will assist in improving the uncertainty in a DCC-based intercalibration between instruments with different pixel resolutions.

Conor Haney↗

DOE OSTI2026

From Rules to Reasoning: A Survey of Large Language Model-Based Approaches to Scientific Hypothesis and Idea Generation

Scientific hypothesis generation represents a fundamental challenge in contemporary research due to exponentially expanding literature volumes and increasing disciplinary specialization. Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as transformative tools for automated scientific discovery, moving beyond traditional rule-based and literature-mining approaches. Four paradigmatic approaches define current LLM-driven hypothesis generation: direct prompting and fine-tuning methods, knowledge-enhanced frameworks integrating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), multi-agent collaborative systems simulating research teams, and reasoning-focused approaches implementing cognitive architectures. Domain-specific applications demonstrate statistical equivalence to human expert performance in social psychology, experimental validation in biomedical research, and near-expert quality in astronomy. Evaluation methodologies encompass human expert assessment, LLM-as-judge frameworks, and comprehensive benchmarking systems. Technical challenges include hallucination management, knowledge integration limitations, and balancing novelty with feasibility. Future directions emphasize hybrid neural-symbolic architectures and sophisticated human-AI collaboration models for responsible scientific discovery acceleration.

AI-driven discovery↗

NASA NTRS1989

Comparison of rainfall profiles retrieved from dual-frequency radar and from combined radar and passive microwave radiometric measurements

Precipitation profiles retrieved from a dual frequency X- and Ka-band radar and from an X-band radiometer are analyzed. Profiles from combined radar and microwave radiometer measurements are compared to those from dual frequency radar measurements to study the performance of the combined radar-radiometer retrievals. A method for the retrieval of rainfall rate profiles from attenuated radar returns and passive radiometric data is presented. The results suggest that the operation of a single frequency radar with multifrequency passive radiometers may provide cost-effective spaceborne measurements of global tropical rainfall distributions. The possible use of this methodology for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission is considered.

Weinman, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Integrated Path Differential Absorption Lidar Optimizations Based on Pre-Analyzed Atmospheric Data for ASCENDS Mission Applications

In this paper a modeling method based on data reductions is investigated which includes pre analyzed MERRA atmospheric fields for quantitative estimates of uncertainties introduced in the integrated path differential absorption methods for the sensing of various molecules including CO2. This approach represents the extension of our existing lidar modeling framework previously developed and allows effective on- and offline wavelength optimizations and weighting function analysis to minimize the interference effects such as those due to temperature sensitivity and water vapor absorption. The new simulation methodology is different from the previous implementation in that it allows analysis of atmospheric effects over annual spans and the entire Earth coverage which was achieved due to the data reduction methods employed. The effectiveness of the proposed simulation approach is demonstrated with application to the mixing ratio retrievals for the future ASCENDS mission. Independent analysis of multiple accuracy limiting factors including the temperature, water vapor interferences, and selected system parameters is further used to identify favorable spectral regions as well as wavelength combinations facilitating the reduction in total errors in the retrieved XCO2 values.

Pliutau, Denis↗

NASA NTRS2012

Iterative Atmospheric Correction Scheme and the Polarization Color of Alpine Snow

Characterization of the Earth's surface is crucial to remote sensing, both to map geomorphological features and because subtracting this signal is essential during retrievals of the atmospheric constituents located between the surface and the sensor. Current operational algorithms model the surface total reflectance through a weighted linear combination of a few geometry-dependent kernels, each devised to describe a particular scattering mechanism. The information content of these measurements is overwhelmed by that of instruments with polarization capabilities: proposed models in this case are based on the Fresnel reflectance of an isotropic distribution of facets. Because of its remarkable lack of spectral contrast, the polarized reflectance of land surfaces in the shortwave infrared spectral region, where atmospheric scattering is minimal, can be used to model the surface also at shorter wavelengths, where aerosol retrievals are attempted based on well-established scattering theories. In radiative transfer simulations, straightforward separation of the surface and atmospheric contributions is not possible without approximations because of the coupling introduced by multiple reflections. Within a general inversion framework, the problem can be eliminated by linearizing the radiative transfer calculation, and making the Jacobian (i.e., the derivative expressing the sensitivity of the reflectance with respect to model parameters) available at output. We present a general methodology based on a Gauss-Newton iterative search, which automates this procedure and eliminates de facto the need of an ad hoc atmospheric correction. In this case study we analyze the color variations in the polarized reflectance measured by the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies Research Scanning Polarimeter during a survey of late-season snowfields in the High Sierra. This insofar unique dataset presents challenges linked to the rugged topography associated with the alpine environment and a likely high water content due to melting. The analysis benefits from ancillary information provided by the NASA Langley High Spectral Resolution Lidar deployed on the same aircraft. The results obtained from the iterative scheme are contrasted against the surface polarized reflectance obtained ignoring multiple reflections, via the simplistic subtraction of the atmospheric scattering contribution. Finally, the retrieved reflectance is modeled after the scattering properties of a dense collection of ice crystals at the surface. Confirming that the polarized reflectance of snow is spectrally flat would allow to extend the techniques already in use for polarimetric retrievals of aerosol properties over land to the large portion of snow-covered pixels plaguing orbital and suborbital observations.

Polarized BRDF↗

NASA NTRS2013

Interpreting SBUV Smoothing Errors: an Example Using the Quasi-biennial Oscillation

The Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) observing system consists of a series of instruments that have been measuring both total ozone and the ozone profile since 1970. SBUV measures the profile in the upper stratosphere with a resolution that is adequate to resolve most of the important features of that region. In the lower stratosphere the limited vertical resolution of the SBUV system means that there are components of the profile variability that SBUV cannot measure. The smoothing error, as defined in the optimal estimation retrieval method, describes the components of the profile variability that the SBUV observing system cannot measure. In this paper we provide a simple visual interpretation of the SBUV smoothing error by comparing SBUV ozone anomalies in the lower tropical stratosphere associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to anomalies obtained from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). We describe a methodology for estimating the SBUV smoothing error for monthly zonal mean (mzm) profiles. We construct covariance matrices that describe the statistics of the inter-annual ozone variability using a 6 yr record of Aura MLS and ozonesonde data. We find that the smoothing error is of the order of 1percent between 10 and 1 hPa, increasing up to 15-20 percent in the troposphere and up to 5 percent in the mesosphere. The smoothing error for total ozone columns is small, mostly less than 0.5 percent. We demonstrate that by merging the partial ozone columns from several layers in the lower stratosphere/troposphere into one thick layer, we can minimize the smoothing error. We recommend using the following layer combinations to reduce the smoothing error to about 1 percent: surface to 25 hPa (16 hPa) outside (inside) of the narrow equatorial zone 20 S-20 N.

ozone profile retrievals↗

NASA NTRS2022

Unique NISTAR-Based Climate GCM Diagnostics of the Earth’s Planetary Albedo and Spectral Absorption Through Longitudinal Data Slicing

Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) measurements of Earth’s reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation permit a unique model/data comparison perspective that is not readily available from other satellite data. The key factor is the unique Lissajous orbital viewing geometry from the Lagrangian L1 point, which enables a continuous view of Earth’s sunlit hemisphere. The National Institute of Standards and Technology Advanced Radiometer (NISTAR) is the DSCOVR Mission energy budget instrument, which views the reflected and emitted radiation of the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere by means of single pixel active cavity full-spectrum (Band-A, 0.2–100 μm) and filtered solar wavelength (Band-B, 0.2–4.0 μm; and Band-C, 0.7–4.0 μm) radiometer measurements. An additional solar wavelength photodiode channel (0.3–1.1 μm) provides a calibration reference. The objective of this study is the assessment of climate GCM performance via direct model/data comparisons. Such comparisons are difficult due to quasi-chaotic natural variability present in real-world observational data and in climate GCM simulations. This is where the unique DSCOVR viewing geometry makes possible the longitudinal data slicing methodology for more direct model/data comparison. The key point of the longitudinal slicing approach is that data integration over the entire sunlit hemisphere eliminates the quasi-chaotic meteorological weather-scale noise, while preserving intra-seasonal and planetary-scale variability. The rotation of the Earth that retrieves this climate-style, large-scale longitudinal and seasonal variability. The hemispheric averaging is accomplished automatically in NISTAR measurements with its single-pixel view of the Earth. For climate GCMs, this requires implementing the Sunlit Hemisphere Sampling (SHS) scheme to operate on the GCM run-time output data, utilizing the DSCOVR Satellite Ephemeris data to assure precise viewing geometry between NISTAR measurements and GCM output data, while averaging out the meteorological weather noise. However, GCM generated data are radiative fluxes, while NISTAR (and EPIC) measurements are near-backscattered radiances. Conversing NISTSR measurements into radiative fluxes cannot be accomplished using NISTAR data alone, even with detailed support from conventional satellite data. But the identical viewing geometry of Earth’s sunlit hemisphere, and synergistic analyses of EPIC data make it feasible for this conversion of NISTAR near-backscatter radiances into radiative fluxes.

deep space climate observatory↗

NASA NTRS1972

Teleoperator system man-machine interface requirements for satellite retrieval and satellite servicing. Volume 1: Requirements

Requirements were determined analytically for the man machine interface for a teleoperator system performing on-orbit satellite retrieval and servicing. Requirements are basically of two types; mission/system requirements, and design requirements or design criteria. Two types of teleoperator systems were considered: a free flying vehicle, and a shuttle attached manipulator. No attempt was made to evaluate the relative effectiveness or efficiency of the two system concepts. The methodology used entailed an application of the Essex Man-Systems analysis technique as well as a complete familiarization with relevant work being performed at government agencies and by private industry.

Malone, T. B.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Radarclinometry of the earth and Venus from Space-Shuttle and Venera-15 imagery

A project to develop a line-integral approach to two-dimensional radarclinometry and to bring it to the status of producing topographic maps from real radar images is presented. Details of the methodology are discussed along with the specific areas where observations were taken. It is concluded that photoclinometry will never be as accurate as stereophotoclinometry, but is (by comparison) economical, rapid, and, when multiscopic paralactic images are not available, the only source of topographic information. The present technique is able to retrieve useful topographic information from even poor images. Furthermore, in future applications of photogrammetry, even when it is operating at the peak of its potential, photoclinometry will be utilized to provide the highest spatial frequencies in a topographic map.

Wildey, Robert L.↗