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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Machine Learning-Derived Microbiological and Immune Signatures: Applications in Adaptive Risk Assessment of Infectious Disease During Spaceflight

Infectious diseases represent an urgent risk for spaceflight with consequences ranging from loss in crew performance to crew incapacitation or loss of life should an outbreak occur. The resident environmental microbiome on the International Space Station has been monitored through routine surveillance over almost twenty years, beginning with culture-based microbial detection which has advanced to molecular methods in recent years. This has created a wealth of data that we have begun mining to define the microbial ecology of the ISS. Summarized here is our analysis of data from the historical microbial population defined by culture-based monitoring from the past two decades, organized by their likelihood to cause disease into clinical categories. As expected, many residents of the normal microflora in environments where people work and live were detected. However, some known pathogens were also detected. As the spaceflight environment can predispose humans to infection, crew health records were used to source additional data for the set to uncover clinical relevance. Data mining was performed on crew health records to capture adverse health events that may be related to infectious disease. Machine learning, specifically Random Forest analysis, was used to analyze the microbial and crew health datasets. The symptom categories were not explained by the ranked bacteria, due to lack of sufficient data for some categories and due to poor ranking of the pathogens for others. Poor ranking of the bacteria could be due to the clinical symptoms being linked to other disease-causing factors, such as allergy or viral infection. These findings suggest a lack of relationship between bacteria detected on surfaces in the ISS and historical health events experienced by astronauts.

Kristyn Hoffman↗
NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Steinberg, S. L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cumulative Distribution Overlap Technique for Artemis Mission Public Entry Risk Assessment

The Artemis missions use a skip-entry profile to accomplish a recovery near the western US coastline, however, the service module debris must still be disposed of safely. For certain contingency return scenarios, the expected dispersed entry profile is biased from the well-analyzed corridor. A novel method is presented for assessing the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of these biased results to ensure they do not contribute additional probabilistic risk to the public. More specifically, the weight of the flight path angle dispersion "tail" of the CDF needs to remain below the well-assessed region. The details of how this method was actually used to screen and plan entry profiles for specific launch windows during the Artemis I mission are shown. This method has potential applicability in other problems where a biased distribution needs to be assessed against a well-defined "core" region.

Reentry↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cumulative Distribution Overlap Technique for Artemis Mission Public Entry Risk Assessment

The Artemis missions use a skip-entry profile to accomplish a recovery near the western US coastline, however, the service module debris must still be disposed of safely. For certain contingency return scenarios, the expected dispersed entry profile is biased from the well-analyzed corridor. A novel method is presented for assessing the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of these biased results to ensure they do not contribute additional probabilistic risk to the public. More specifically, the weight of the flight path angle dispersion "tail" of the CDF needs to remain below the well-assessed region. The details of how this method was actually used to screen and plan entry profiles for specific launch windows during the Artemis I mission are shown. This method has potential applicability in other problems where a biased distribution needs to be assessed against a well-defined "core" region.

Reentry↗
NASA NTRS1999

On The Development of Biophysical Models for Space Radiation Risk Assessment

Experimental techniques in molecular biology are being applied to study biological risks from space radiation. The use of molecular assays presents a challenge to biophysical models which in the past have relied on descriptions of energy deposition and phenomenological treatments of repair. We describe a biochemical kinetics model of cell cycle control and DNA damage response proteins in order to model cellular responses to radiation exposures. Using models of cyclin-cdk, pRB, E2F's, p53, and GI inhibitors we show that simulations of cell cycle populations and GI arrest can be described by our biochemical approach. We consider radiation damaged DNA as a substrate for signal transduction processes and consider a dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF) for protein expression.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Vehicle Shield Optimization and Risk Assessment for Future Human Space Missions

As the focus of future human space missions shifts to destinations beyond low Earth orbit such as Near Earth Objects (NEO), the moon, or Mars, risks associated with extended stay in hostile radiation environment need to be well understood and assessed. Since future spacecrafts designs and shapes are evolving continuous assessments of shielding and radiation risks are needed. In this study, we use a predictive software capability that calculates risks to humans inside a spacecraft prototype that builds on previous designs. The software uses CAD software Pro/Engineer and Fishbowl tool kit to quantify radiation shielding provided by the spacecraft geometry by calculating the areal density seen at a certain point, dose point, inside the spacecraft. Shielding results are used by NASA-developed software, BRYNTRN, to quantify organ doses received in a human body located in the vehicle in case of solar particle event (SPE) during such prolonged space missions. Organ doses are used to quantify risks on astronauts health and life using NASA Space Cancer Model. The software can also locate shielding weak points-hotspots-on the spacecraft s outer surface. This capability is used to reinforce weak areas in the design. Results of shielding optimization and risk calculation on an exploration vehicle design for missions of 6 months and 30 months are provided in this study. Vehicle capsule is made of aluminum shell that includes main cabin and airlock. The capsule contains 5 sets of racks that surround working and living areas. Water shelter is provided in the main cabin of the vehicle to enhance shielding in case of SPE.

Nounu, Hatem N.↗
NASA NTRS2022

How NASA decided Webb was ready: Inside the risk assessment

Every do-it-yourselfer knows how hard it can be to declare a project complete. Will another turn of the bolt or brushstroke make things better or worse? That was roughly the choice NASA faced a year before the Dec. 25 launch of the James Webb Space Telescope. Would more testing close more technical risks in the nearly $10 billion project or create new ones? In the end, NASA decided against more testing. NASA’s Jesse Leitner and Tupper Hyde describe the assessment they performed.

JWST↗
NASA NTRS2011

L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

Zelkin, Natalie↗
NASA NTRS1991

A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Risk Assessment of Physiological Effects of Atmospheric Composition and Pressure in Constellation Vehicles

To limit the risk of fire and reduce denitrogenation time to prevent decompression sickness to support frequent extravehicular activities on the Moon, a hypobaric (PB = 414 mmHg) and mildly hypoxic (ppO2 = 132 mmHg, 32% O2 - 68% N2) living environment is considered for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM). With acute change in ppO2 from 145-178 mmHg at standard vehicular operating pressure to less than 125 mmHg at desired lunar surface vehicular operating pressures, there is the possibility that some crewmembers may develop symptoms of Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS). The signs and symptoms of AMS (headache plus nausea, dizziness, fatigue, or sleeplessness), could impact crew health and performance on lunar surface missions. An exhaustive literature review on the topic of the physiological effects of reduced ppO2 and absolute pressure as may contribute to the development of altitude symptoms or AMS was performed. The results of the nine most rigorous studies were collated, analyzed and contents on AMS and hypoxia symptoms summarized. There is evidence for an absolute pressure effect per se on AMS, so the higher the altitude for a given hypoxic alveolar O2 partial pressure (PAO2), the greater the AMS response. About 25% of adults are likely to experience mild AMS near 2,000 m altitude following a rapid ascent from sea level while breathing air (6,500 feet, acute PAO2 = 75 mmHg). The operational experience with the Shuttle staged denitrogenation protocol at 528 mmHg (3,048 m) while breathing 26.5% O2 (acute PAO2 = 85 mmHg) in astronauts adapting to microgravity suggests a similar likely experience in the proposed CEV environment. We believe the risk of mild AMS is greater given a PAO2 of 77 mmHg at 4,876 m altitude while breathing 32% O2 than at 1,828 m altitude while breathing 21% O2. Only susceptible astronauts would develop mild and transient AMS with prolonged exposure to 414 mmHg (4,876 m) while breathing 32% O2 (acute PAO2 = 77 mmHg). So the following may be employed for operational risk reduction: 1) develop procedures to increase PB as needed in the CEV, and use a gradual or staged reduction in cabin pressure during lunar outbound; 2) train crews for symptoms of hypoxia, to allow early recognition and consider pre-adaptation of crews to a hypoxic environment prior to launch, 3) consider prophylactic acetazolamide for acute pressure changes and be prepared to treat any AMS associated symptoms early with both carbonic anhydrase inhibitors and supplemental oxygen.

Scheuring, Richard A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Time Safety Assessment & Risk Prediction for Unmanned Aerial Systems

One of the critical challenges in emerging autonomous systems is timely mitigation of hazards encountered during operation which may not be known or accounted for at the time of design. Efficient execution of unmanned systems therefore demands a paradigm shift from scheduled periodic maintenance to predictive risk analysis that includes condition-based-monitoring, real-time reliability assessment and hazard mitigation. Particularly, the state-of-health parameters needs to be computed at the component level, unit level as well as the integrated system level. While in the former two levels, the physics of health propagation may be based on underlying electro-mechanical properties, system level prognostics often relies on data-driven models. Further, uncertainty from model, measurements and input sources should be accurately quantified to generate meaningful prediction results that can be fed into reliable decision making processes. Finally, the expected risk and time to failure has to be computed based on the current state-of-health of the overall system. This talk presents a conceptual design of such an in-time safety assurance approach for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) operating at low altitudes near and over populated areas. Typical in-flight hazard incidents include unplanned detour, proximity to obstacles, mid-flight component faults, limited battery life and poor quality of GPS measurements. Safety assessment therefore comprises trajectory generation and re-plan, battery RUL computation, distributed fault diagnostics and uncertainty management of predicted trajectory based on GPS measurement noise. The entire monitoring framework will be demonstrated on simulated as well as real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center. This tutorial will therefore guide the audience through a step-by-step tracking of an autonomous system with focus on in-time risk prediction in the presence of unforeseen hazards and uncertain environment.

diagnostics↗
NASA NTRS2014

International Space Station (ISS) Orbital Replaceable Unit (ORU) Wet Storage Risk Assessment

The International Space Station (ISS) Program requested the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to evaluate the risks posed by the practice of long-term wet storage of ISS Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) regeneration system orbital replacement units (ORUs). The ISS ECLS regeneration system removes water from urine and humidity condensate and converts it into potable water and oxygen. A total of 29 ORUs are in the ECLS system, each designed to be replaced by the ISS crew when necessary. The NESC assembled a team to review the ISS ECLS regeneration system and evaluate the potential for biofouling and corrosion. This document contains the outcome of the evaluation.

Squire, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Failure risk assessment by analysis and testing

The sources of information on which to base an evaluation of reliability or failure risk of an aerospace flight system are (1) experience from tests and flights and (2) engineering analysis. It is rarely feasible to establish high reliability at high confidence by testing aerospace systems or components. Moreover, failure prediction by conventional, deterministic methods of engineering analysis can become arbitrary and subject to serious misinterpretation when uncertain or approximate information is used to establish analysis parameter values and to calibrate the accuracy of engineering models. The limitations of testing to evaluate failure risk are discussed, and a statistical approach which incorporates both engineering analysis and testing is presented.

Moore, N.↗