Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Risk prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

Surveillance and Control of Malaria Transmission in Thailand using Remotely Sensed Meteorological and Environmental Parameters

These slides address the use of remote sensing in a public health application. Specifically, this discussion focuses on the of remote sensing to detect larval habitats to predict current and future endemicity and identify key factors that sustain or promote transmission of malaria in a targeted geographic area (Thailand). In the Malaria Modeling and Surveillance Project, which is part of the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program, we have been developing techniques to enhance public health's decision capability for malaria risk assessments and controls. The main objectives are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species; 2) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity; 3) implementation of a dynamic transmission model to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission. The potential benefits are: 1) increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to malaria outbreaks; 2) optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis; 3) reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance; and 4) reduced damage to environment. !> Environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. The NASA Earth science data sets that have been used for malaria surveillance and risk assessment include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP, and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of the remotely sensed parameters. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Discrete event simulations are used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results are in good agreement with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired by Coleman et al. over 4.5 years in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in western Thailand. Application of our models is not restricted to the Greater Mekong Subregion. Our models have been applied to malaria in Indonesia, Korea, and other regions in the world with similar success.

Kiang, Richard K.↗

Evaluation of Human and Anthropomorphic Test Device Finite Element Models under Spaceflight Loading Conditions

In an effort to develop occupant protection standards for future multipurpose crew vehicles, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has looked to evaluate the test device for human occupant restraint with the modification kit (THOR‐K) anthropomorphic test device (ATD) in relevant impact test scenarios. With the allowance and support of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, NASA has performed a series of sled impact tests on the latest developed THOR‐K ATD. These tests were performed to match test conditions from human volunteer data previously collected by the U.S. Air Force. The objective of this study was to evaluate the THOR‐K finite element (FE) model and the Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS) FE model with respect to the tests performed. These models were evaluated in spinal and frontal impacts against kinematic and kinetic data recorded in ATD and human testing. Methods: The FE simulations were developed based on recorded pretest ATD/human position and sled acceleration pulses measured during testing. Predicted responses by both human and ATD models were compared to test data recorded under the same impact conditions. The kinematic responses of the models were quantitatively evaluated using the ISO‐metric curve rating system. In addition, ATD injury criteria and human stress/strain data were calculated to evaluate the risk of injury predicted by the ATD and human model, respectively. Results: Preliminary results show well‐correlated response between both FE models and their physical counterparts. In addition, predicted ATD injury criteria and human model stress/strain values are shown to positively relate. Kinematic comparison between human and ATD models indicates promising biofidelic response, although a slightly stiffer response is observed within the ATD. Conclusion: As a compliment to ATD testing, numerical simulation provides efficient means to assess vehicle safety throughout the design process and further improve the design of physical ATDs. The assessment of the THOR‐K and THUMS FE models in a spaceflight testing condition is an essential first step to implementing these models in the computational evaluation of spacecraft occupant safety. Promising results suggest future use of these models in the aerospace field.

Putnam, Jacob P.↗

Assessing Malaria Risks in Greater Mekong Subregion based on Environmental Parameters

At 4,200 km, the Mekong River is the tenth longest river in the world. It directly and indirectly influences the lives of hundreds of millions of inhabitants in its basin. The riparian countries - Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and a small part of China - form the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). This geographical region has the misfortune of being the world's epicenter of falciparum malaria, which is the most severe form of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. Depending on the country, approximately 50 to 90% of all malaria cases are due to this species. In the Malaria Modeling and Surveillance Project, we have been developing techniques to enhance public health s decision capability for malaria risk assessments and controls. The main objectives are: 1) identifying the potential breeding sites for major vector species; 2) implementing a malaria transmission model to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) implementing a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. The potential benefits are: 1) increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to malaria outbreaks; 2) optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis; 3) reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance; and 4) reduced damage to environment. Environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. The NASA Earth science data sets that have been used for malaria surveillance and risk assessment include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP, and SIESIP. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Socioeconomic factors that may influence malaria transmissions will also be incorporated into the predictive models.

Kiang, Richard↗

Test and Simulation of a Fokker F28 Crash Landing

Test and Simulation of a Fokker F28 Crash Landing – Jacob B. Putnam 1, Justin D. Littell 1, Karen E. Jackson 2; 1 NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, 2 National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA. In June of 2019, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) conducted a full-scale crash test of a Fokker F28 MK1000 aircraft. Aircraft crash-worthiness is typically evaluated through component level tests (i.e. vertical drops of fuselage subsections or isolated seat tests). Finite Element Models (FEMs) are also used to bridge the gap between component testing and full-scale crash prediction. The full-scale crash test performed in conjunction with previous subsection testing of a Fokker F28 fuselage provided the opportunity to evaluate differences in crash-worthiness predictions between full- and sub-scale testing and to quantify the predictive capability of FEMs in the aerospace crash environment. In this study vehicle crash-worthiness was quantified through anthropometric test devices (ATDs) included in both the full-scale crash test as well as fuselage section drop tests previously performed at NASA LaRC. A FEM of the Fokker F28 aircraft was developed and simulated within the tested environment. Vehicle and ATD response predictions were compared between test and simulation. The International Organization for Standardization ISO/TR 16250 curve comparison methodology was used to provide a quantitative assessment of predictive accuracy for both the vehicle and ATD FEMs. Determination of aircraft crash-worthiness made between the three evaluations methodologies (full-vehicle crash test, component test, and FEM simulation) were then compared. Structural differences as well as the more complex loading environment achieved within the full-vehicle test resulted in increased injury risk compared to that predicted within the component level tests. The FEM simulations were found to produce a more realistic prediction of injury risk within the full-vehicle crash environment than the component level testing. Limitations of both component testing and FEM simulation within aerospace crash environment were identified.

impact testing↗

CHP-PRA: Sensorimotor Countermeasures Proof of Concept

The capabilities included in Crew Health and Performance (CHP) systems are designed to keep the crew healthy, happy, and productive. In doing so, the CHP system allows reductions in human related risks to be realized. All human missions, though particularly future Artemis and Mars missions, have constraints on the mass and volume allocated to the CHP system. Thus, trades must be made on how to best buy down risk while still meeting other requirements. Understanding how different CHP capabilities influence medical, performance, and long-term health risks is key to making informed choices among these trades. To address this, an integrated CHP Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) model is being developed. Much like how IMPACT is designed to allow medical resource trades informed by medical risks, CHP PRA will enable analogous trades in human system risks across all CHP functions and capabilities. There are 29 Human System Risk Board (HSRB) risk areas to consider for model implementation. This effort focused solely on the implementation of countermeasures associated with sensorimotor risk. The framework and lessons learned from this proof of concept will benefit the implementation of other risks and countermeasures. Astronauts experience sensorimotor changes when entering or exiting a microgravity environment. While most sensorimotor issues are resolved within a few days, they pose a serious risk to crew health and performance during the adaptation period. This adaptation period aligns with gravity transitions and key mission phases where the crew members may be required to complete challenging tasks ideally with an undisturbed sensorimotor system. Countermeasures such as training or pharmaceuticals can be used to mitigate risk. This effort began by identifying physiological changes to the sensorimotor system that could lead to functional performance decrements or medical conditions and potential countermeasures, so that the overall effect of sensorimotor disturbance on human risk could be captured. We then selected example countermeasures, mapped relationships between countermeasures and outcomes, and used results from existing sensorimotor investigations to define the relationship between a sensorimotor countermeasure and subsequent performance of a sensorimotor-affected task. Specifically, using shuttle landing performance data, we compared the use or absence of inflight training capabilities to yield a relative performance change that can be applied to the prediction of the risk associated with manual control performance in future missions, as depicted in the figure. This sensorimotor proof of concept demonstrates how HRP research information can be transformed into quantifiable relationships to describe changes in HSRB medical and performance risks.

Caroline R Austin↗

Gaussian Kernel Methods for Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of Mid-Rise Buildings

Seismic fragility functions can be evaluated using the cloud analysis method with linear regression which makes three fundamental assumptions about the relation between structural response and seismic intensity: log-linear median relationship, constant standard deviation, and Gaussian distributed errors. While cloud analysis with linear regression is a popular method, the degree to which these individual and compounded assumptions affect the fragility and the risk of mid-rise buildings needs to be systematically studied. This paper conducts such a study considering three building archetypes that make up a bulk of the building stock: RC moment frame, steel moment frame, and wood shear wall. Gaussian kernel methods are employed to capture the data-driven variations in the median structural response and standard deviation and the distributions of residuals with the intensity level. With reference to the Gaussian kernels approach, it is found that while the linear regression assumptions may not affect the fragility functions of lower damage states, this conclusion does not hold for the higher damage states (such as the Complete state). In addition, the effects of linear regression assumptions on the seismic risk are evaluated. For predicting the demand hazard, it is found that the linear regression assumptions can impact the computed risk for larger structural response values. However, for predicting the loss hazard with downtime as the decision variable, linear regression can be considered adequate for all practical purposes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Preliminary study of radio frequency waves in hypervelocity impact plasma

Orbital debris and meteoroids can cause mechanical and electrical anomalies by impacting spacecraft. Although mechanical damage tends to occur only from particles with masses >10 –3 g, electrical damage can be a result of hypervelocity (> 10 km/s) impacts (HVI) even with smaller particles. In HVI, the projectile speed exceeds the speed of sound in the material and has enough energy to create plasma by ionizing the material near the surface, which can then emit radio frequency (RF) waves. In this paper, we conduct a preliminary study on the characteristics of impact-generated RF emission with the ultimate goal of building an RF predictive model for risk assessment of HVI electrical effects that can damage spacecraft. First, we introduce wavelet analysis as a method for denoising and quantifying the total RF signal energy. An appropriate mother wavelet and the number of decomposition levels are selected using a synthetic signal. Second, the total energy of the RF emission is calculated using Parseval’s theorem. Results suggest that the total RF signal energy is proportional to the energy flux of the impactor. Lastly, spectrograms of the RF emission are analyzed to characterize features that can be used in the future to predict impacts that can cause electrical damage to satellites.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Effect of Natural Disasters and Extreme Weather on Household Location Choice and Economic Welfare

Natural disasters have increased in the United States in recent decades. At the same time, there has been a shift in population away from the states in the Northeast and Midwest to areas in the Sun Belt, many of which face increased risks from natural disasters. Spatial equilibrium theory predicts that households trade off risk for income in making location decisions. This study estimates a spatial equilibrium model of household location choice to understand these trade-offs. The results show that households require as much as 0.40% of annual household income to endure an additional disaster over the course of a decade. They also show that these values differ substantially depending on household skill level with higher-skill, higher-income households willing to pay three times more in annual income to avoid an additional natural disaster. Furthermore, these results have important implications for policymakers thinking about climate change adaptation and environmental justice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Space Radiation Risk from Galactic Cosmic Rays at the International Space Station Relates to Nuclear Cross Sections

Space radiation risk to astronauts is a major obstacle for long term human space explorations. Space radiation transport codes have thus been developed to evaluate radiation effects at the International Space Station (ISS) and in missions to the Moon or Mars. We study how nuclear fragmentation processes in such radiation transport affect predictions on the radiation risk from galactic cosmic rays. Taking into account effects of the geomagnetic field on the cosmic ray spectra, we investigate the effects of fragmentation cross sections at different energies on the radiation risk (represented by dose-equivalent) from galactic cosmic rays behind typical spacecraft materials. These results tell us how the radiation risk at the ISS is related to nuclear cross sections at different energies, and consequently how to most efficiently reduce the physical uncertainty in our predictions on the radiation risk at the ISS.

Lin, Zi-Wei↗

What Threats to Human Health Does Space Radiation Pose in Orbit

The Space Shuttle program spanned more than the entire length of a solar cycle. Investigations aimed towards understanding the health risks of the astronauts from exposures to space radiation involved mostly physical measurements of the dose and the linear energy transfer (LET) spectrum. Measurement of the dose rate on the Shuttle provided invariable new data for different periods of the solar cycle, whereas measurement of the LET spectrum using the tissue equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) produced the most complete mapping of the radiation environment of the low Earth orbits (LEO). Exposures to the Shuttle astronauts were measured by the personal dosimeter worn by the crewmembers. Analysis of over 300 personal dosimeter readings indicated a dependence on the mission duration, the altitude and inclination of the orbit, and the solar cycle, with the crewmembers on the launch and repair of the Hubble telescope receiving the highest doses due to the altitude of the mission. Secondary neutrons inside the Shuttle were determined by recoil protons or with Bonner spheres, and may contribute significantly to the risks of the crewmembers. In addition, the skin dose and the doses received at different organs were compared using a human phantom onboard a Shuttle mission. A number of radiobiology investigations wer e also performed. The biological doses were determined on six astronauts/cosmonauts on long-duration Shuttle/Mir missions and on two crewmembers on a Hubble repair mission by analyzing the damages in the chromosomes of the crewmembers? white blood cells. Several experiments were also conducted to address the question of possible synergistic effects of spaceflight, microgravity in particular, on the repair of radiation-induced DNA damages. The experimental design included exposure of cells before launch, during flight, or after landing. These physical and biological studies were invaluable in predicting the health risks for astronauts on ISS and future exploration missions. Educational Objectives: A group of high school students flew color negative films on tw o Shuttle missions to detect the radiation environment in orbit. This and other experiments onboard of the Shuttle were aimed at educating the general public of the space program.

Wu, Honglu↗

Developing a Dashboard Interface to Display Assessment of Hazards and Risks to sUAS Flights

The Supplemental Data Services Provider-Consolidated Dashboard (SDSP-CD) is a graphical user interface (GUI) that displays the results of predictive tools in a single location. It is intended to be used in the preflight planning phase of an operation to allow users to proactively assess predicted flight hazards off-line; expanding an operator’s overall situational awareness of a flight plan and providing an opportunity for decision making and assessing the associated risks prior to flight. Hazard data and risk predictions are informative but can be complex to read and understand. However, presented visually and in relation to flight parameters (such as flight path), the nature and significance of hazards become much more evident. The SDSP-Consolidation Dashboard interface was designed to offer a means to present the results of hazard services in an easy to-use format. Two usability studies were run to explore what features might make a suite of hazard assessment services easy to use, and to assess the SDSP-CD interface. The first study evaluated the presentation of information on the GUI and the second evaluated users’ ability to understand and use the information. The studies gathered valuable information about how users approach a hazard assessment task and interpret information from the interface. Many suggestions were given for improving the interface’s information display, to allow users to more quickly understand and interpret the information being presented.

UAV display↗

Developing a Dashboard Interface to Display Assessment of Hazards and Risks to sUAS Flights

The Supplemental Data Services Provider-Consolidated Dashboard (SDSP-CD) is a graphical user interface (GUI) that displays the results of predictive tools in a single location. It is intended to be used in the prefight planning phase of an operation to allow users to proactively assess predicted flight hazards off-line; expanding an operator’s overall situational awareness of a flight plan and providing an opportunity for decision making and assessing the associated risks prior to flight. Hazard data and risk predictions are informative but can be complex to read and understand. However, presented visually and in relation to flight parameters (such as flight path), the nature and significance of hazards become much more evident. The SDSP-Consolidation Dashboard interface was designed to offer a means to present the results of hazard services in an easy to-use format. Two usability studies were run to explore what features might make a suite of hazard assessment services easy to use, and to assess the SDSP-CD interface. The first study evaluated the presentation of information on the GUI and the second evaluated users’ ability to understand and use the information. The studies gathered valuable information about how users approach a hazard assessment task and interpret information from the interface. Many suggestions were given for improving the interface’s information display, to allow users to more quickly understand and interpret the information being presented

UAV display↗

Bayesian Approach for Reliability Assessment of Sunshield Deployment on JWST

Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications, for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a Bayesian approach for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This approach was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the observatory's telescope and science instruments. In order to collect the prior information on deployable systems, detailed studies of "heritage information", were conducted extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Spacecraft Operational Anomaly and Reporting System (SOARS) data were then used to estimate the parameters of the conjugative beta prior distribution for anomaly and failure occurrence, as the most consistent set of available data and that could be matched to launch histories. This allows for an emperical Bayesian prediction for the risk of an anomaly occurrence of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, using prior deployment data and test information.

Kaminskiy, Mark P.↗

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America

Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.

Climate change↗

Genetic program activity delineates risk, relapse, and therapy responsiveness in multiple myeloma

Despite recent advancements in the treatment of multiple myeloma (MM), nearly all patients ultimately relapse and many become refractory to multiple lines of therapies. Therefore, we not only need the ability to predict which patients are at high risk for disease progression but also a means to understand the mechanisms underlying their risk. Here, we report a transcriptional regulatory network (TRN) for MM inferred from cross-sectional multi-omics data from 881 patients that predicts how 124 chromosomal abnormalities and somatic mutations causally perturb 392 transcription regulators of 8549 genes to manifest in distinct clinical phenotypes and outcomes. We identified 141 genetic programs whose activity profiles stratify patients into 25 distinct transcriptional states and proved to be more predictive of outcomes than did mutations. The coherence of these programs and accuracy of our network-based risk prediction was validated in two independent datasets. We observed subtype-specific vulnerabilities to interventions with existing drugs and revealed plausible mechanisms for relapse, including the establishment of an immunosuppressive microenvironment. Investigation of the t(4;14) clinical subtype using the TRN revealed that 16% of these patients exhibit an extreme-risk combination of genetic programs (median progression-free survival of 5 months) that create a distinct phenotype with targetable genes and pathways.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Initiation-promotion model of tumor prevalence in mice from space radiation exposures

Exposures in space consist of low-level background components from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), occasional intense-energetic solar-particle events, periodic passes through geomagnetic-trapped radiation, and exposure from possible onboard nuclear-propulsion engines. Risk models for astronaut exposure from such diverse components and modalities must be developed to assure adequate protection in future NASA missions. The low-level background exposures (GCR), including relativistic heavy ions (HZE), will be the ultimate limiting factor for astronaut career exposure. We consider herein a two-mutation, initiation-promotion, radiation-carcinogenesis model in mice in which the initiation stage is represented by a linear kinetics model of cellular repair/misrepair, including the track-structure model for heavy ion action cross-sections. The model is validated by comparison with the harderian gland tumor experiments of Alpen et al. for various ion beams. We apply the initiation-promotion model to exposures from galactic cosmic rays, using models of the cosmic-ray environment and heavy ion transport, and consider the effects of the age of the mice prior to and after the exposure and of the length of time in space on predictions of relative risk. Our results indicate that biophysical models of age-dependent radiation hazard will provide a better understanding of GCR risk than models that rely strictly on estimates of the initial slopes of these radiations.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Preparing for Mars: the physiologic and medical challenges

As the twentieth century closes, retrospectives cite the Apollo moon missions as one of the important events of the past 100 years. A trip to Mars, however, would be even more challenging and significant. A round-trip Mars journey would require nearly three years away from Earth, a significant leap in complexity compared to the two week long Moon trips or the record-breaking fourteen-month flight on Mir. What would be the physiologic and medical challenges of a Mars flight? Two key areas of physiology present the greatest potential problems--calcium metabolism and radiation exposure. Data from Mir missions show that bone loss continues in space despite an aggressive countermeasure program. Average losses were 0.35% per month, but some load bearing areas lost >1% per month. A 1% loss rate, if it continued unabated for 30 months, could produce osteoporosis. Smaller losses could still increase fracture risk. Some bone loss can be well tolerated, particularly if the bone can be regained after the mission. But the effectiveness of post-flight rehabilitation to restore the density and quality of bone after spaceflight is not well known. Bone loss estimates are based on continuous weightlessness exposure, but this is not a requirement for a Mars trip. Most of the time on a Mars trip will be spent in the 1/3 Earth's gravity environment on Mars, and either intermittent or continuous artificial gravity can be provided for the transit between planets (although at an engineering cost). The dosing of the gravity exposure (e.g. the level and duration), however, has not been established. Radiation protection also requires a balance between engineering cost and human health. Excessive shielding could add billions of dollars to the cost of a mission. Trips in interplanetary space, however, expose the crew to heavy high-energy particles from cosmic rays (HZE particles), which have a high linear energy transfer. This high energy leads to significant biological damage (e.g. chromosomal aberrations, cancer induction). A recent report from the Committee on Space Biology and Medicine notes that only one systematic study of cancer induction from high-energy particles has been conducted (using the mouse Harderian gland). Predictions of cancer risk and acceptable radiation exposure in space are extrapolated from minimal data. Other areas of physiology also present problems, such as muscle loss, cardiovascular deconditioning, and vestibular adaptation. Despite all the issues, however, a focussed, aggressive research program that uses the resources of the International Space Station should pave the way for mankind's greatest adventure--a trip to Mars.

STS-90 Shuttle Project↗

Non-DNA radiosensitive targets that initiate persistent behavioral deficits in rats exposed to space radiation

Predicting future CNS risks for astronauts during deep-space missions will rely substantially on ground-based rodent data with space-relevant ions and behaviors. For rats, the accumulated evidence indicates that less densely ionizing radiation, such as 4 He and 12 C ions, induce behavior deficits at lower doses than densely ionizing ions, such as 48 Ti and 56 Fe. However, this observation conflicts with standard somatic radiobiology, in which densely ionizing ions are generally more effective than less densely ionizing ions, and where the DNA/nucleus is the accepted target for radiation-induced tumorigenesis, cytogenetic aberrations, genetic mutations, and reproductive cell death. To gain deeper insight into the subcellular nature of the radiation targets for behavior risks, we compared the effects of dose, fluence, and linear energy transfer (LET) of 4 He and 56 Fe particles using existing datasets for four distinct behavioral outcomes in rats: elevated plus maze (EPM-anxiety), novel object recognition (NOR-memory), operant responding (OR-response to environmental stimuli), and attentional set-shifting (ATSET-cognitive flexibility). We confirmed that less densely ionizing particles (except protons) showed ~100-fold lower threshold doses than densely ionizing particles for behavioral deficits (0.1–1 cGy for 4 He vs. 15–100 cGy for 56 Fe). However, when analyzed by fluence the behavioral responses converged, indicating that 4 He and 56 Fe were equally effective on a per-track basis. When analyzed by LET, there were ~100-fold differences in the LET for maximum effectiveness for behavioral deficits and DNA endpoints (~1 vs ~100 keV/μm, respectively). These unique features of radiation-induced behavioral deficits (high sensitivity to particles in the 1-keV/μm range, insensitivity to protons in the 0.2 keV/μm range, and isofluence dependence for particles with LET>1 keV/μm) provide evidence in support of a new hypothesis of sub-micron sized radiosensitive targets for behavioral effects consistent with the thickness of plasma membranes and/or small subcellular structures, smaller than a whole synapse. Like our behavior findings, mouse immature oocyte killing which is known to have a plasma membrane target was also better explained by fluence, rather than dose. In contrast, fluence analyses for DNA/nuclear endpoints in somatic cells (e.g., tumor induction, chromosome aberrations) showed opposite results, suggesting that behavior targets are not DNA. Our findings raise questions regarding the identity of subcellular targets and the multi-cellular functional unit for behavior risks, low-dose susceptibility, and generalizability from rat to other species and astronauts.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗