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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Observational Evidence of a Hemispheric-wide Ice-ocean Albedo Feedback Effect on Antarctic Sea-ice Decay

The effect of ice-ocean albedo feedback (a kind of ice-albedo feedback) on sea-ice decay is demonstrated over the Antarctic sea-ice zone from an analysis of satellite-derived hemispheric sea ice concentration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) atmospheric data for the period 1979-2001. Sea ice concentration in December (time of most active melt) correlates better with the meridional component of the wind-forced ice drift (MID) in November (beginning of the melt season) than the MID in December. This 1 month lagged correlation is observed in most of the Antarctic sea-ice covered ocean. Daily time series of ice , concentration show that the ice concentration anomaly increases toward the time of maximum sea-ice melt. These findings can be explained by the following positive feedback effect: once ice concentration decreases (increases) at the beginning of the melt season, solar heating of the upper ocean through the increased (decreased) open water fraction is enhanced (reduced), leading to (suppressing) a further decrease in ice concentration by the oceanic heat. Results obtained fi-om a simple ice-ocean coupled model also support our interpretation of the observational results. This positive feedback mechanism explains in part the large interannual variability of the sea-ice cover in summer.

Nihashi, Sohey↗
NASA NTRS2011

Observations of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Volume Loss and Its Impact on Ocean-Atmosphere Energy Exchange and Ice Production

Using recently developed techniques we estimate snow and sea ice thickness distributions for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and a snow depth model. These data are used with meteorological data and a thermodynamic sea ice model to calculate ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and ice volume production during the 2003-2008 fall and winter seasons. The calculated heat fluxes and ice growth rates are in agreement with previous observations over multiyear ice. In this study, we calculate heat fluxes and ice growth rates for the full distribution of ice thicknesses covering the Arctic basin and determine the impact of ice thickness change on the calculated values. Thinning of the sea ice is observed which greatly increases the 2005-2007 fall period ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes compared to those observed in 2003. Although there was also a decline in sea ice thickness for the winter periods, the winter time heat flux was found to be less impacted by the observed changes in ice thickness. A large increase in the net Arctic ocean-atmosphere heat output is also observed in the fall periods due to changes in the areal coverage of sea ice. The anomalously low sea ice coverage in 2007 led to a net ocean-atmosphere heat output approximately 3 times greater than was observed in previous years and suggests that sea ice losses are now playing a role in increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic.

Kurtz, N. T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Intersensor Calibration Between F13 SSMI and F17 SSMIS for Global Sea Ice Data Records

An intercalibration between F13 Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) and F17 Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) sea ice extents and areas for a full year of overlap was undertaken preparatory to extending the 1979-2007 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) NASA Team algorithm time series of global sea ice extents and areas. The 1979- 2007 time series was created from Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and SSMI data. After intercalibration, the yearly mean F17 and F13 difference in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extents is -0.0156%, with a standard deviation of the differences of 0.6204%, and the yearly mean difference in Northern Hemisphere sea ice areas is 0.5433%, with a standard deviation of 0.3519%. For the Southern Hemisphere, the yearly mean difference in sea ice extents is 0.0304% +/- 0.4880%, and the mean difference in sea ice areas is 0.1550% +/- 0.3753%. This F13/F17 intercalibration enables the extension of the 28-year 1979-2007 SMMR/SSMI sea ice time series for as long as there are stable F17 SSMIS brightness temperatures available.

Cavalieri, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Intersensor Calibration Between F13 SSMI and F17 SSMIS for Global Sea Ice Data Records

An intercalibration between F13 Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) and F17 Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) sea ice extents and areas for a full year of overlap was undertaken preparatory to extending the 1979-2007 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) NASA Team algorithm time series of global sea ice extents and areas. The 1979- 2007 time series was created from Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and SSMI data. After intercalibration, the yearly mean F17 and F13 difference in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extents is -0.0156%, with a standard deviation of the differences of 0.6204%, and the yearly mean difference in Northern Hemisphere sea ice areas is 0.5433%, with a standard deviation of 0.3519%. For the Southern Hemisphere, the yearly mean difference in sea ice extents is 0.0304% 0.4880%, and the mean difference in sea ice areas is 0.1550% 0.3753%. This F13/F17 intercalibration enables the extension of the 28-year 1979-2007 SMMR/SSMI sea ice time series for as long as there are stable F17 SSMIS brightness temperatures available.

Cavalieri, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Sensitivity of African Easterly Waves to Eastern Tropical Atlantic Sea-Surface Temperatures

The results of two regional atmospheric model simulations are compared to assess the influence of the eastern tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature maximum on local precipitation, transient easterly waves and the West African summer monsoon. Both model simulations were initialized with reanalysis 2 data (US National Center for Environmental Prediction and Department of Energy) on 15 May 2006 and extended through 6 October 2006, forced by synchronous reanalysis 2 lateral boundary conditions introduced four times daily. One simulation uses 2006 reanalysis 2 sea-surface temperatures, also updated four times daily, while the second simulation considers ocean forcing absent the sea-surface temperature maximum, achieved here by subtracting 3 K at every ocean grid point between 0 and 15 N during the entire simulation. The simulation with 2006 sea-surface temperature forcing produces a realistic distribution of June-September mean precipitation and realistic westward propagating swaths of maximum rainfall, based on validation against Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. The simulation without the sea-surface temperature maximum produces only 57% of the control June-September total precipitation over the eastern tropical Atlantic and about 83% of the Sahel precipitation. The simulation with warmer ocean temperatures generates generally stronger circulation, which in turn enhances precipitation by increasing moisture convergence. Some local precipitation enhancement is also attributed to lower vertical thermal stability above the warm water. The study shows that the eastern tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature maximum enhances the strength of transient easterly waves and broadens the spatial extent of associated precipitation. However, large-scale circulation and its interaction with the African continent, and not sea-surface temperatures, control the timing and trajectories of the waves.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Ultra-Wideband, Microwave Radar for Measuring Snow Thickness on Sea Ice and Mapping Near-Surface Internal Layers in Polar Firn

Sea ice is generally covered with snow, which can vary in thickness from a few centimeters to >1 m. Snow cover acts as a thermal insulator modulating the heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, and it impacts sea-ice growth rates and overall thickness, a key indicator of climate change in polar regions. Snow depth is required to estimate sea-ice thickness using freeboard measurements made with satellite altimeters. The snow cover also acts as a mechanical load that depresses ice freeboard (snow and ice above sea level). Freeboard depression can result in flooding of the snow/ice interface and the formation of a thick slush layer, particularly in the Antarctic sea-ice cover. The Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) has developed an ultra-wideband, microwave radar capable of operation on long-endurance aircraft to characterize the thickness of snow over sea ice. The low-power, 100mW signal is swept from 2 to 8GHz allowing the air/snow and snow/ ice interfaces to be mapped with 5 c range resolution in snow; this is an improvement over the original system that worked from 2 to 6.5 GHz. From 2009 to 2012, CReSIS successfully operated the radar on the NASA P-3B and DC-8 aircraft to collect data on snow-covered sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic for NASA Operation IceBridge. The radar was found capable of snow depth retrievals ranging from 10cm to >1 m. We also demonstrated that this radar can be used to map near-surface internal layers in polar firn with fine range resolution. Here we describe the instrument design, characteristics and performance of the radar.

Snow Cover↗
NASA NTRS2019

Local and Downstream Relationships Between Labrador Sea Water Volume and North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability

While it has generally been understood that the production of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) impacts the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), this relationship has not been explored extensively nor validated against observations. To explore this relationship, a suite of global ocean and ocean–sea-ice models forced by the same interannually-varying atmospheric dataset, varying in resolution from non-eddy permitting to eddy-permitting (1°–1/4°), is analyzed to investigate the local and downstream relationships between LSW formation and the MOC on interannual to decadal time scales. While all models display a strong relationship between changes in the LSW volume and the MOC in the Labrador Sea, this relationship degrades considerably downstream of the Labrador Sea. In particular, there is no consistent pattern among the models in the North Atlantic subtropical basin over interannual to decadal time scales. Furthermore, the strong response of the MOC in the Labrador Sea to LSW volume changes in that basin may be biased by the overproduction of LSW in many models compared to observations. This analysis shows that changes in LSW volume in the Labrador Sea cannot be clearly and consistently linked to a coherent MOC response across latitudes over interannual to decadal time scales in ocean hindcast simulations of the last half-century. Similarly, no coherent relationships are identified between the MOC and the Labrador Sea mixed layer depth or the density of newly formed LSW across latitudes or across models over interannual to decadal time scales.

Feili Li↗
NASA NTRS2019

Sea Surface Salinity Distribution in the Southern Ocean as Observed from Space

Large-scale spatial and temporal variabilities of sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Southern Ocean from 2011 to 2017 were studied using products derived from microwave sensors on board Aquarius, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) satellites. Four products, three from Aquarius and one from SMOS, were evaluated and shown to be generally consistent within 0.3 to 0.6 psu and agree favorably with in situ measurements. However, although the Aquarius products show consistent seasonality of SSS with high values of 34.45 psu in October and low values of 33.40 psu in May, theSMOS and SMAP products lack such seasonal variations. This may be caused by larger uncertainties in the SMOS and SMAP data due in part to the lack of concurrent scatterometer measurements that is used to correct for roughness effects. The four products provide similar spatial distributions of SSS with root mean square difference from 0.25 to 0.58 psu. Differences among Aquarius products are mainly due to varying salinity retrieval algorithms, smoothing, and masking of sea ice, while the SMOS product showed the highest SSS deviation that is likely due to the bias adjustment done on the data set. Our analyses show that SSS in the Southern Ocean region has significant meridional variations with the lowest SSS near the ice edge and highest at lower latitudes. The SSS is also lowest in summer indicating the predominant influence of sea ice and glacial melt, but it stays low near ice edges even during the growth season. Salinity together with temperature is the key parameters that control the state and circulation of the World's oceans. The large‐scale distribution of the sea surface salinity of the Southern Ocean is quantified for the first time using Aquarius, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, and Soil Moisture Active and Passive satellite microwave data. Seasonal and interannual changes in the distribution as affected by the sea ice cover, surface temperature, and precipitation are evaluated. Comparative studies were done, using four different products that are publicly available, in conjunction with in situ observations to gain insights into the true nature of the distribution and how consistently the sea surface salinity is depicted by the different products. There are general consistencies in the products, and discrepancies are attributed to different algorithms, smoothing techniques, and sea ice masking. Aquarius data are shown to have higher accuracy than Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity and Soil Moisture Active and Passive products in part because of having concurrent scatterometer that provides accurate correction to roughness effects.

Garcia-Eidell, Cynthia↗
NASA NTRS2020

Direct and Semi-Direct Radiative Forcing of Biomass-Burning Aerosols Over the Southeast Atlantic (SEA) And Its Sensitivity to Absorbing Properties: A Regional Climate Modeling Study

Simulations are performed for the period 2000–2015 by two different regional climate models, ALADIN and RegCM, to quantify the direct and semi-direct radiative effects of biomass-burning aerosols (BBAs) in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) region. Different simulations have been performed using strongly absorbing BBAs in accordance with recent in situ observations over the SEA. For the July–August–September (JAS) season, the single scattering albedo (SSA) and total aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by the ALADIN and RegCM models are consistent with the MACv2 climatology and MERRA-2 and CAMS-RA reanalyses near the biomass-burning emission sources. However, the above-cloud AOD is slightly underestimated compared to satellite (MODIS and POLDER) data during the transport over the SEA. The direct radiative effect exerted at the continental and oceanic surfaces by BBAs is significant in both models and the radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere indicate a remarkable regional contrast over SEA (in all-sky conditions), with a cooling (warming) north (south) of 10 ∘S, which is in agreement with the recent MACv2 climatology. In addition, the two models indicate that BBAs are responsible for an important shortwave radiative heating of ∼0.5–1 K per day over SEA during JAS with maxima between 2 and 4 km a.m.s.l. (above mean sea level). At these altitudes, BBAs increase air temperature by ∼0.2–0.5 K, with the highest values being co-located with low stratocumulus clouds. Vertical changes in air temperature limit the subsidence of air mass over SEA, creating a cyclonic anomaly. The opposite effect is simulated over the continent due to the increase in lower troposphere stability. The BBA semi-direct effect on the lower troposphere circulation is found to be consistent between the two models. Changes in the cloud fraction are moderate in response to the presence of smoke, and the models differ over the Gulf of Guinea. Finally, the results indicate an important sensitivity of the direct and semi-direct effects to the absorbing properties of BBAs. Over the stratocumulus (Sc) region, DRE varies from +0.94 W m−2 (scattering BBAs) to +3.93 W m−2 (most absorbing BBAs).

Marc Mallet↗
NASA NTRS2024

Sea Ice Deformation Is Not Scale Invariant Over Length Scales Greater Than A Kilometer

In March and April 2021, buoys were deployed in the Beaufort Sea, Arctic Ocean, to measure sea-ice horizontal deformation over spatial scales that had not been previously achieved. Geodetic-quality position measurements allowed measurements of strain-rate over lengths from about 200 m to 2 km. Conventional ice-drifters extended spatial coverage up to about 100 km. Past studies find there is multi-fractal behavior for horizontal sea-ice deformation from 10 to 1000 km. Our results demonstrate that such behavior does not hold when including spatial scales below 10 km. We find that sea-ice deformation is not scale in variant between the scale of individual sea-ice floes and aggregates of floes. Therefore, we cannot expect the same physical laws or forcing to describe sea-ice kinematics over these regimes, nor can we assume log-log linear behavior for mean deformation. Using this scaling behavior as a metric to validate models that resolve sea ice floes and their interactions is hence not recommended.

Jennifer K. Hutchings↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unprecedented Beaufort Sea ice loss in late summer 2021 and its relationship to an extended period of unusually stormy weather

Previous case studies have linked cyclone-induced atmospheric forcing and/or upper-ocean processes to notable Arctic sea ice loss events in the summers of 2012 and 2016. This study examines a more recent and noteworthy case in late summer 2021 in which substantial sea ice loss followed a period of surface meteorological extremes in the Beaufort Sea region of the Arctic. We focus on the period from mid-August to mid-September 2021 that coincided with the Office of Naval Research THINICE Pilot Field Campaign and investigate stormy and windy conditions with respect to air-sea processes impacting sea ice conditions. We find that during the stormy first half of the campaign, cyclone-induced energy fluxes into the marginal ice zone and surrounding waters preconditioned the ice pack for more rapid melt later in the campaign. The second half of the campaign, in contrast, was marked by non-cyclone wind events that enhanced turbulent (namely sensible) heat fluxes into the ice and upper ocean that increased melt. Moreover, this latter period had enhanced advection of the Beaufort Sea ice pack into above-freezing waters, increasing bottom melt to >1 cm d −1 over the remainder of the campaign. While findings are shown to vary by surface type and at relatively small (i.e. ice-floe) scales, insights are offered on the roles of late summer coupled processes on rapid ice loss events in today’s Arctic environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmogenic surface exposure ( 10 Be) dating of raised beaches in Marguerite bay, Antarctic Peninsula: Implications for relative sea-level history

Understanding the dynamics of ice mass loss in polar regions is crucial for deciphering climate change and Glacio Isostatic Adjustment patterns. This study focuses on Marguerite Bay, located in the south-central Antarctic Peninsula. We dated raised beaches to investigate relative sea-level changes using the cosmogenic surface exposure ( 10 Be) method. Previous studies have provided valuable insights into the region's glacial history, but limitations in dating techniques and age estimates necessitate further investigation. By analysing raised shingle beaches in Gaul Cove of Horseshoe Island and the southern coast of Calmette Bay, this research aims to contribute relative sea-level change history for these areas. In Horseshoe Island's Gaul Cove, raised beaches clustered on prominent steps reveal a 15 m relative sea-level change over the last 3.31 ka. Differently, Calmette Bay exhibits a 36 m relative sea-level fall over the last 7.29 ka. Finally, these findings indicate significant and differential glacial-isostatic adjustments in both regions during the middle and late Holocene. Additionally, our data reveal accelerated sea-level fall periods corresponding to Holocene deglaciation and glacial advance events, indicating the shorelines' relative sea-level change sensitivity to climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unsteady Land-Sea Breeze Circulations in the Presence of a Synoptic Pressure Forcing

Unsteady land-sea breezes (LSBs) that result from time-varying surface temperature contrasts Δθ(t) are explored in the presence of a constant synoptic pressure forcing, M g , oriented from sea to land (α = 0°) or land to sea (α = 180°). Large eddy simulations reveal the development of four distinctive regimes, depending on the joint interaction between M g , α, and Δθ(t) in modulating the fine-scale dynamics. Time lags, computed as the shifts that maximize correlation coefficients of the velocity between the unsteady and the corresponding steady scenarios at Δθ = Δθ max , are found to be significant and to extend 2 hr longer for α = 0° compared to α = 180°. These diurnal dynamics result in nonequilibrium conditions that are significantly affected by the flow history, and that behave differently over the two patches for the different α’s. Turbulence is found to be out of equilibrium with the mean flow, and the mean itself is found to be out of equilibrium with the thermal forcing. The sea surface heat flux is consistently more sensitive than its land counterpart to the time-varying external forcing Δθ(t), and more so for synoptic forcing from land to sea (α = 180°). Hence, although the land reaches equilibrium faster, the sea patch is found to exert a stronger control on the turbulence-mean flow equilibrium response. Finally, the vertical velocity profile at the shore and shore-normal velocity transects at the first grid level are shown to encode the multiscale regimes of the LSBs evolution and can thus be used to identify these regimes using k-means clustering.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Models

Six Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project model simulations are compared with estimates of sea ice thickness derived from pan-Arctic satellite freeboard measurements (2004-2008); airborne electromagnetic measurements (2001-2009); ice draft data from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea, and the Beaufort Sea (1992-2008) and from submarines (1975-2000); and drill hole data from the Arctic basin, Laptev, and East Siberian marginal seas (1982-1986) and coastal stations (1998-2009). Despite an assessment of six models that differ in numerical methods, resolution, domain, forcing, and boundary conditions, the models generally overestimate the thickness of measured ice thinner than approximately 2 mand underestimate the thickness of ice measured thicker than about approximately 2m. In the regions of flat immobile landfast ice (shallow Siberian Seas with depths less than 25-30 m), the models generally overestimate both the total observed sea ice thickness and rates of September and October ice growth from observations by more than 4 times and more than one standard deviation, respectively. The models do not reproduce conditions of fast ice formation and growth. Instead, the modeled fast ice is replaced with pack ice which drifts, generating ridges of increasing ice thickness, in addition to thermodynamic ice growth. Considering all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observations are from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II and Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System models.

sea ice↗
NASA NTRS2013

Sea Ice Thickness, Freeboard, and Snow Depth products from Operation IceBridge Airborne Data

The study of sea ice using airborne remote sensing platforms provides unique capabilities to measure a wide variety of sea ice properties. These measurements are useful for a variety of topics including model evaluation and improvement, assessment of satellite retrievals, and incorporation into climate data records for analysis of interannual variability and long-term trends in sea ice properties. In this paper we describe methods for the retrieval of sea ice thickness, freeboard, and snow depth using data from a multisensor suite of instruments on NASA's Operation IceBridge airborne campaign. We assess the consistency of the results through comparison with independent data sets that demonstrate that the IceBridge products are capable of providing a reliable record of snow depth and sea ice thickness. We explore the impact of inter-campaign instrument changes and associated algorithm adaptations as well as the applicability of the adapted algorithms to the ongoing IceBridge mission. The uncertainties associated with the retrieval methods are determined and placed in the context of their impact on the retrieved sea ice thickness. Lastly, we present results for the 2009 and 2010 IceBridge campaigns, which are currently available in product form via the National Snow and Ice Data Center

sea ice thickness↗
NASA NTRS2014

A New Study of Sea Spray Optical Properties from Multi-Sensor Spaceborne Observations

Retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) satellite sensor require the assumption of an extinction-to-backscatter ratio, also known as the lidar ratio. This paper evaluates a new method to calculate lidar ratio of sea spray aerosol using two independent sources: the AOD from Synergized Optical Depth of Aerosols (SODA) and the integrated attenuated backscatter from CALIOP. The method applied in this study allows particulate lidar ratio to be calculated for individual CALIOP retrievals of single aerosol layer columns over the ocean. Analyses are carried out using CALIOP level 2, 5km sea spray aerosol layer products and collocated SODA nighttime data from December 2007 to December 2009. The global mean lidar ratio for sea spray aerosols was found to be 26 sr, roughly 30 higher than the one prescribed by CALIOP. Data analysis also showed considerable spatiotemporal variability in calculated lidar ratio over different parts of the remote oceans. The calculated aerosol lidar ratios are shown to be inversely related to the mean ocean surface wind speed: increase in ocean surface wind speed (U10) from 0 to 15 ms-1 reduces the mean lidar ratios for sea spray particles from 32 sr (for 0 U10 4 ms-1) to 22 sr (for U10 15 ms-1). Such changes in the lidar ratio are expected to have a corresponding effect on sea spray AOD. The outcomes of this study are relevant for future improvements of the SODA and CALIOP operational product and could lead to more accurate retrievals of sea spray AOD.

aerosol optical depth↗
NASA NTRS2013

Teleconnections, Midlatitude Cyclones and Aegean Sea Turbulent Heat Flux Variability on Daily Through Decadal Time Scales

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958-2001, and identify four distinct cyclone states, corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc), and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deep water formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern (NCP), showing that the area of influence of large scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.

cyclones↗