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At least 271 records · Page 15

Martian seismicity through time from surface faulting

An objective of future Mars missions involves emplacing a seismic network on Mars to determine the internal structure of the planet. An argument based on the relative geologic histories of the terrestrial planets suggests that Mars should be seismically more active than the Moon, but less active than the Earth. The seismicity is estimated which is expected on Mars through time from slip on faults visible on the planets surface. These estimates of martian seismicity must be considered a lower limit as only structures produced by shear faulting visible at the surface today are included (i.e., no provision is made for buried structures or non-shear structures); in addition, the estimate does not include seismic events that do not produce surface displacement (e.g., activity associated with hidden faults, deep lithospheric processes or volcanism) or events produced by tidal triggering or meteorite impacts. Calibration of these estimates suggests that Mars may be many times more seismically active than the Moon.

Golombek, M. P.↗

Scientific Rationale and Requirements for a Global Seismic Network on Mars

Following a brief overview of the mission concepts for a Mars Global Network Mission as of the time of the workshop, we present the principal scientific objectives to be achieved by a Mars seismic network. We review the lessons for extraterrestrial seismology gained from experience to date on the Moon and on Mars. An important unknown on Mars is the expected rate of seismicity, but theoretical expectations and extrapolation from lunar experience both support the view that seismicity rates, wave propagation characteristics, and signal-to-noise ratios are favorable to the collection of a scientifically rich dataset during the multiyear operation of a global seismic experiment. We discuss how particular types of seismic waves will provide the most useful information to address each of the scientific objectives, and this discussion provides the basis for a strategy for station siting. Finally, we define the necessary technical requirements for the seismic stations.

Solomon, Sean C.↗

Grail Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

To probe a planet's interior, seismology provides the most direct constraints on the variables that govern the dynamic properties of the body. However, the GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) mission's high-resolution measurements of the lunar gravity field provide constraints on crustal thickness, mantle structure, core radius and stratification, and core state (solid vs. molten). These data complement seismic investigations, and joint interpretation permits improved constraints on the Moon's internal structure. Joint interpretation of disparate geophysical datasets helps reduce drawbacks that can result from analyzing them individually. The Apollo seismic network was situated on the lunar nearside surface in a roughly equilateral triangle having sides approximately 1000 km long, with stations 12/14 nearly co-located at one corner. Due to this limited geographical extent, near-surface ray coverage from moonquakes is low, but increase with depth. In comparison, gravity surveys and their resulting gravity anomaly maps have traditionally offered optimal resolution at crustal depths. Gravimetric maps and seismic data sets are therefor well suited to joint inversion, since the complementary information reduces inherent model ambiguity. We will perform a joint inversion of Apollo seismic delay times and gravity data collected by GRAIL lunar gravity mission, in order to recover seismic velocity and density as a function of latitude, longitude and depth within the Moon. We will relate density (rho) to seismic velocity (v) using a linear relationship that is allowed to be depth-dependent. The corresponding coefficient (B) can reflect a variety of material properties that vary with depth, including temperature and composition. The inversion seeks to recover the set of rho, v, and B perturbations that minimize (in a least-squares sense) the difference between the observed and calculated data.

Weber, Renee C.↗

Assessment of Saturation Changes Around Cavities and the Impact on Seismic Waves.

According to theory, seismic methods should be able to identify cavities. The high impedance contrast between the rock (fast velocity, high density) and the air (slow velocity, low density) should produce strong reflections and refractions off cavity walls. In practice, however, cavities are not always easily detected. Changes in pore saturation, fracturing, and stress near the wall of the cavity may decrease the impedance contrast and diffuse the rock/air interface. To determine the impact of these effects on seismic waves, we first aim to understand the hydrological processes in the medium surrounding the cavity, a tunnel in this case. We simulate flow through the vadose zone to provide insight into how a cavity alters saturation. Next we examine how this saturation affects seismic velocities. Finally, we use a wave propagation code to simulate seismic waves through the saturation models. Results are presented from hydrology models for three cases: the tunnel far above the water table, the tunnel just above the water table and within the capillary fringe, and the tunnel below the water table with the tunnel being drained. We also present the results of seismic wave propagation through these models to determine the impact these effects have on seismic waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Locating underground features with seismic data processing

Methods are presented for determining the location of underground features (e.g., CO 2 ). One method includes capturing, by sensors distributed throughout a region, seismic traces associated with seismic signals generated by a seismic source. For multiple sensors, active noise is identified or passive noise is measured within each seismic trace and values for attributes associated with the active or passive noise are determined. Further, an unsupervised machine-learning model, based on the values of the attributes, is utilized to determine noise characteristics for multiple sensors. The sensors are grouped in clusters based on the noise characteristics for each sensor. For multiple clusters, a noise filter is created based on the noise characteristics of the sensors in the cluster, and the noise filter of the cluster is applied, for multiple sensors, to the seismic traces of the sensor. Additionally, the filtered seismic traces are analyzed to determine a location of CO 2 underground.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Current challenges in monitoring, discrimination, and management of induced seismicity related to underground industrial activities: A European perspective

Due to the deep socioeconomic implications, induced seismicity is a timely and increasingly relevant topic of interest for the general public. Cases of induced seismicity have a global distribution and involve a large number of industrial operations, with many documented cases from as far back to the beginning of the twentieth century. However, the sparse and fragmented documentation available makes it difficult to have a clear picture on our understanding of the physical phenomenon and consequently in our ability to mitigate the risk associated with induced seismicity. This review presents a unified and concise summary of the still open questions related to monitoring, discrimination, and management of induced seismicity in the European context and, when possible, provides potential answers. Lastly, we further discuss selected critical European cases of induced seismicity, which led to the suspension or reduction of the related industrial activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Experimental and numerical studies of seismic fluid-structure interaction in a base-supported cylindrical vessel

Seismic design and qualification of advanced reactors will rely heavily on the use of verified and validated numerical models capable of capturing the interaction of the vessel, its contained fluid, and the internal equipment: fluid-structure interaction (FSI) analysis. Analytical solutions can be used for preliminary sizing and design of such vessels but their application is limited to simple geometries and boundary conditions, and small amplitude, translational (and rotational) inputs. To validate numerical models for seismic FSI analysis in finite element codes, a comprehensive set of experiments was performed on a liquid-filled cylindrical vessel, using a 6 degree-of-freedom earthquake simulator. Results in terms of sloshing frequency, damping ratio in sloshing modes, and hydrodynamic responses (wave height, hydrodynamic pressure, base shear, and base moment) for multi-directional earthquake simulator inputs are reported and compared with analytical solutions for liquid-filled vessels. The impact of seismic (base) isolation on hydrodynamic responses was studied using earthquake simulator inputs generated using a virtual isolation system. Data from the experiments are used to validate a numerical model of the fluid-filled vessel using the Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) solver in the commercial finite element program LS-DYNA. Validation studies are presented for multi-directional seismic inputs, including rocking motions. Lagrangian modeling approaches using an elastic material formulation for the fluid are also investigated and their limitations and possible applications are identified. Here, the results are broadly applicable to the seismic response of base supported, liquid-filled vessels.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Integrating HPC simulations and physical experiments to characterize the effects of gamma radiation on seismic protective devices

Seismic protective systems, composed of seismic isolators and dampers, can substantially reduce the effects of earthquake shaking on nuclear power plants and components therein. To enable the use of these devices to protect equipment inside a plant and close to a source of radiation, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a project at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the University at Buffalo to characterize the effects of absorbed gamma dose on their mechanical properties. An early task in the project was to determine the exposure time required in the INL Foss Therapy Services (FTS) 60 Co gamma irradiator to achieve a target absorbed dose in the materials used to construct isolators and dampers, including fluids, polymers, composites, and metals. This task required the novel integration of high-performance computing (HPC), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) simulations, and irradiation experiments using Fricke dosimetry. An MCNP model of the FTS irradiator at INL was developed and validated using Fricke dosimetry. Simulations of three experiments in the irradiator, two with Fricke vials only and one with Fricke vials and a large-size isolator, predicted the Fricke-measured absorbed dose rate to within 15% in all three cases, providing high confidence in the calculation of the gamma dose absorbed in the materials comprising the seismic protective devices. The simulations demonstrated that the effects of photon scattering on absorbed dose rate in the FTS irradiator are negligible for test articles installed close to the cobalt sources and near the rear of the irradiator. The validated MCNP model of the FTS irradiator is being used to support ongoing DOE-funded experiments on seismic protective devices and could be applied to future, non-seismic-related experiments. In conclusion, the novel validation process successfully deployed for the FTS irradiator at INL could be applied to other irradiators, requiring new MCNP models and simulations, and irradiation experiments using dosimeters.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Identifying geological structures through microseismic cluster and burst analyses complementing active seismic interpretation

At the Decatur carbon capture and storage site (IL, USA) CO 2 has been injected from 2011–2014 and from 2017 to present near the base of the Lower Mt. Simon Sandstone saline reservoir, resulting in microseismicity. Microseismicity is mainly located in the basement and distributed in distinct spatial clusters. The lack of significant impedance contrasts within the basement makes the interpretation of active-source seismic reflection data challenging, however, recent reprocessing allowed to resolve faults above and at the top of the basement. These faults generally do not coincide with the location of microseismic events and their continuation to the general depth of the seismic events cannot be assumed. This paper shows how the interpretation of the microseismicity can complement structural interpretations of active-source seismic reflection data. In particular, we analyze clusters and bursts (abrupt increases) of microseismicity, identify unresolved, smaller-scale weaknesses and extract statistical parameters. These parameters allow comparisons with the interpreted faults, and with fracture sets intercepted by boreholes. During injection at the Decatur site, the injection pressure was kept far below fracture pressure, nevertheless, seismic events were induced and spread far beyond the expected extent of the CO 2 plume. We argue that local stress transfers related to the CO 2 injection reactivated pre-existing fractures within the critically stressed basement. Finally, we conducted a slip tendency analysis for faults interpreted from active seismic, selected cluster, bursts and nodal planes from focal mechanisms to determine if the interpreted structures are optimally oriented with respect to the stress regime. Our results suggest that the orientation of fractures close to the injection well, generally shows slight deviations from the optimal orientation for slip. This might indicate either slight local deviations of the maximum horizontal stress azimuth from the average direction used in the analysis, or the lack of optimally oriented fractures at this location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic Survey 2016 Data at San Emidio Nevada

In December 2016, 1301 vertical-component seismic instruments were deployed at the San Emidio Geothermal field in Nevada. The first record starts at 2016-12-05T02:00:00.000000Z (UTC) and the last record ends at 2016-12-11T14:00:59.998000Z (UTC). Data are stored in individual files in one-minute increments in SEGD and MSEED formats. See the metadata in GDR submission (linked below as "Seismic Survey 2016 Metadata at San Emidio Nevada") for details about the seismic station locations, seismic data logger specifications, instrumentation specifications, descriptions of data, a fracture finding summary, and the final report for the 2016 seismic survey done in San Emidio, Nevada.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A Project Lifetime Approach to the Management of Induced Seismicity Risk at Geologic Carbon Storage Sites

The geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one method that can help reduce atmospheric CO 2 by sequestering it into the subsurface. Large-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage, however, may be accompanied by induced seismicity. We present a project lifetime approach to address the induced seismicity risk at these geologic storage sites. This approach encompasses both technical and nontechnical stakeholder issues related to induced seismicity and spans the time period from the initial consideration phase to postclosure. These recommendations are envisioned to serve as general guidelines, setting expectations for operators, regulators, and the public. They contain a set of seven actionable focus areas, the purpose of which are to deal proactively with induced seismicity issues. Although each geologic carbon storage site will be unique and will require a custom approach, these general best practice recommendations can be used as a starting point to any site-specific plan for how to systematically evaluate, communicate about, and mitigate induced seismicity at a particular reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

ORION: Operational FoRecastIng Of INduced Seismicity

The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity toolkit “ORION” (ORION) is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit which is geared towards helping operators understand the seismic hazard (i.e., probabilistic assessment of the magnitude and frequency of induced seismic events) at a site. ORION analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection and suggests possible mitigation strategies to employ if an earthquake that exceeds certain threshold is observed. Through its ensemble modeling approach, ORION leverages the benefits of statistical-, physics-, and machine learning-based forecasting methodologies, while reducing the impact of each model’s respective limitations. The ORION toolkit consists of an easy-to-use GUI interface that affords a user as much or as little interaction as desired. Advanced capabilities allow the user to upload local, high-precision earthquake catalogs, projected injection profiles and/or spatiotemporal estimates of pressure/stress, and to tune various model parameters. ORION will then provide a spatial and temporal ensemble forecast of seismicity defined as the probability of exceedance of a given earthquake magnitude over a forecast period. Additionally, ORION will provide probability distribution of the statistically derived maximum possible earthquake magnitude that may be expected. Finally, ORION will provide suggested operational management strategies (e.g. reduce injection volumes at specific wells) based on the level of hazard.

NRAP,NRAP Tools,ORION,Operational Forcasting of In↗

THMC Modeling of EGS Reservoirs -- Continuum through Discontinuum Representations. Capturing Reservoir Stimulation, Evolution and Induced Seismicity

This work has investigated the roles of effective stress induced by changes in fluid pressure, temperature and chemistry in contributing to the evolution of permeability and induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs. This work has developed continuum models [1] to represent the progress or seismicity during both stimulation [2] and production [3]. These methods have been used to resolve anomalous observations of induced seismicity at the Newberry Volcano demonstration project [4] through the application of modeling and experimentation. Later work then focuses on the occurrence of late stage seismicity induced by thermal stresses [5] including the codifying of the timing and severity of such responses [6]. Furthermore, mechanistic linkages between observed seismicity and the evolution of permeability have been developed using data from the Newberry project [7] and benchmarked against field injection experiments. Finally, discontinuum models [8] incorporating the roles of discrete fracture networks have been applied to represent stimulation and then thermal recovery for new arrangements of geothermal wells incorporating the development of flow manifolds [9] in order to increase thermal output and longevity in EGS systems.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Utah FORGE: 2D and 3D Seismic Data

This set of data contains raw and Initially-processed 2D and 3D seismic data from the Utah FORGE study area near Roosevelt Hot Springs. Reprocessed versions of these data can be accessed at the linked submission in the Resources section titled "Reprocessed Seismic Reflection Data." The zipped archives numbered from 1-100 to 1001-1122 contain 3D seismic uncorrelated shot gatherers SEG-Y files. The zipped archives numbered from 1-100C to 1001-1122C contain 3D seismic correlated shot gatherers SEG-Y files. Other data have intuitive names.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The importance of earthquake interactions for injection-induced seismicity: Retrospective modeling of the Basel Enhanced Geothermal System

We explore the role of earthquake interactions during an injection-induced seismic sequence. We propose a model, which considers both a transient pressure and static stress redistribution due to event interactions as triggering mechanisms. By calibrating the model against observations at the Enhanced Geothermal System of Basel, Switzerland, we are able to reproduce the time behavior of the seismicity rate. We observe that considering earthquake interactions in the modeling leads to a larger number of expected seismic events (24% more) if compared to a pressure-induced seismicity only. The increase of the number of events is particularly evident after the end of the injection. Finally, we conclude that implementing a model for estimating the static stress changes due to mutual event interactions increases significantly the understanding of the process and the behavior of induced seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimating Fault Friction From Seismic Signals in the Laboratory

Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any time, from the continuous seismic signal. In a classic laboratory experiment of repeating earthquakes, we find that the seismic signal follows a specific pattern with respect to fault friction, allowing us to determine the fault's position within its failure cycle. Using machine learning, we show that instantaneous statistical characteristics of the seismic signal are a fingerprint of the fault zone shear stress and frictional state. Further analysis of this fingerprint leads to a simple equation of state quantitatively relating the seismic signal power and the friction on the fault. Finally, these results show that fault zone frictional characteristics and the state of stress in the surroundings of the fault can be inferred from seismic waves, at least in the laboratory.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 1. Tomography

Abstract A function of global monitoring of nuclear explosions is the development of Earth models for predicting seismic travel times for more accurate calculation of event locations. Most monitoring agencies rely on fast, distance-dependent one-dimensional (1D) Earth models to calculate seismic event locations quickly and in near real-time. RSTT (Regional Seismic Travel Time) is a seismic velocity model and computer software package that captures the major effects of three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure on regional seismic travel times, while still allowing for fast prediction speed (milliseconds). We describe updates to the RSTT model using a refined data set of regional phases (i.e., Pn, Pg, Sn, Lg) using the Bayesloc relative relocation algorithm. The tomographic inversion shown here acts to refine the previous RSTT public model ( rstt201404um ) and displays significant features related to areas of global tectonic complexity as well as further reduction in arrival residual values. Validation of the updated RSTT model demonstrates significant reduction in median epicenter mislocation (15.3 km) using all regional phases compared to the iasp91 1D model (22.1 km) as well as to the current station correction approach used at the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (18.9 km).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A modular methodology for time-domain stochastic seismic wave propagation

Presented here is a modular methodology for time-domain stochastic seismic wave propagation analysis. Presented methodology is designed to analyse uncertain seismic motions as an input, propagating through uncertain material. Traditional approach for uncertain wave propagation relies on models that include deep bedrock, local soil site, and their random process and random field information. Such models can become quite large and computationally intractable. The modular approach proposed herein features two step approach that allows separate consideration of the deep bedrock and local site along with corresponding random field information. In this work, the first step considers an auxiliary stochastic motions problem in the bedrock. Stochastic local site response can then be simulated in a reduced domain within certain depth from the surface. Application of uncertain seismic motions at depth, for local uncertain site response is done using stochastic effective forces developed through the Domain Reduction Method. By using Hermite polynomial chaos expansion to represent the non-Gaussian random field of material parameters and non-stationary random process of seismic motion, the proposed modular methodology is formulated using intrusive stochastic Galerkin approach, as seen in the Stochastic Elastic–Plastic Finite Element Method (SEPFEM). Developed modular methodology is illustrated using a 1-D stochastic seismic wave propagation analysis with three cases, and simulation results are also verified with results from conventional approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗