Global Solar Activity Forecast using AI/ML and Data Assimilation
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The impact of solar radiation dramatically increases at high altitudes in the Earth’s atmosphere and in space. Therefore, continuous monitoring of the radiation environment is critical for the safety of aircraft and spacecraft crews and passengers. Addressing the problem requires a complex approach of integration of different data sources and enhancement of the visualization and search capabilities. The Radiation Portal Database represents an interactive web-based application for convenient search and visualization of in-flight radiation measurements and exploration of various properties related to the radiation environment. The primary element of the Radiation Portal back-end is a MySQL relational database that currently contains the radiation measurements obtained from the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS)device, and soft X-ray and proton fluxes from Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite (GOES). The developed Application Programming Interface (API) and related Python routines allow a user to retrieve the database records directly and efficiently, without interaction with the web interface. As a use case of the Radiation Portal, we examine the properties of the ARMAS flights taken during the enhanced Solar Proton (SP) fluxes and compare them to the flights of similar time and location taken during SP-quiet periods.
An accurate interpretation of observed solar dynamics with different instruments requires modeling solar magnetoconvection indifferent regimes, as well as taking into account center-to-limb effects, magnetic fields, and turbulence. Realistic 3D radiative MHD modeling of the solar magnetoconvection and atmosphere allows us to generate synthetic observables that directly link the physical properties of the solar plasma to spectroscopic and helioseismic observables. In this work, we investigate the influence of the center-to-limb effects for a wide range of wavelengths, which correspond to the operational lines of HMI/SDO, Hinode, DKIST, and other instruments. In particular, we discuss the wavelength-dependency of the center-to-limb helioseismic observations of acoustic travel times that are used for diagnostics of the deep meridional circulation, as well as 'concave' Sun effect. The presented study will support interpretation of helioseismic inversion results by taking into account realistic coupling of subsurface and atmosphere, and geometry-related effects. In particular, it allows us to improve accuracy of solar subsurface measurements from the SoHO and SDO missions, and resolve the long-standing problem of the meridional circulation and evolution with the solar cycle.
The next decade will be an exciting period for solar astrophysics, as new ground- and space-based instrumentation will provide unprecedented observations of the solar atmosphere and heliosphere. The synergy between modeling effort and comprehensive analysis of observations is crucial for the understanding of the physical processes behind the observed phenomena. However, the unprecedented wealth of data on one hand, and the complexity of the physical phenomena on the other, require the development of new approaches in both data analysis and numerical modeling. In this white paper, we summarize recent numerical achievements to reproduce structure, dynamics, and observed phenomena from the photosphere to the low corona and outline challenges we expect to face for the interpretation of future observations.
The team has developed a Radiation Data Portal – an interactive web-based application for convenient search and visualization of in-flight radiation measurements and exploration of various properties related to the radiation environment.
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A method of fine pointing of laser beams by using laser arrays has been developed. The telescope system combines a lens system and a VCSEL/Photodetector Array. It does not use moving parts. In computer simulations, it is applied to CubeSats that use body pointing. Body pointing was used by the Aerospace Corporation for CubeSats in LEO in NASA’s Optical Communications and Sensors Demonstration (OCSD) program. Computer simulations of this fine pointing capability have been applied previously to CubeSats in the OCSD program. In this paper, computer simulations of laser pointing using this telescope design are applied to CubeSats in LLO, at 100 km. These CubeSats could form part of the LunaNet, the lunar communications and navigation network, part of the NASA ARTEMIS Program. With more accurate pointing, a laser beam with smaller divergence can be used. For the case of the AeroCube-7B vehicle that was used in the OCSD program, computer simulations will show, for example, that the divergence of the output beam can be reduced from approximately 0.06° FWHM to 0.014°. For the proposed electro-optical system, reaction times to pointing changes and vibrations are on a nanosecond time scale, much faster than those for fine pointing systems that use moving parts such as fast steering mirrors, including MEMS, or that use quad-cell photodetectors to improve the body pointing of the CubeSat. Other possible applications are to Optical Multiple Access (OMA)for simultaneously communicating with ground stations at different locations and to Wavelength-Division Multiplexing (WDM)for increasing data rate transmission.
Current state-of-the-art computer simulations allow us to build 3D dynamical and radiative models of stars from physical first principles with a high degree of realism. The radiative 3D dynamical stellar models obtained with the StellarBox code take into account the effects of turbulence, stellar abundances, a realistic equation of state, and radiative energy transport. In this talk, I will discuss the effects of rotation on the turbulent dynamics and surface structure for a 1.47Msun star for rotational periods of 1 and 14 days. The simulations are performed with the computational domain at various latitudes. The models reproduce stellar granulation, the subsurface shear layer, structural changes in convection, and the tachocline, which is the interface between the inner radiative zone and the outer convection zone and plays a crucial role in stellar variability. In particular, the model results reveal the formation of differential rotation and meridional circulation.
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In this study we extract the deep features and investigate the compression of the MgII k spectral line profiles observed in quiet Sun regions by NASA’s IRIS satellite. The data set of line profiles used for the analysis was obtained on April 20th, 2020, at the center of the solar disc, and contains almost 300,000 individual MgII k line profiles after data cleaning. The data are separated into train and test subsets. The train subset was used to train the autoencoder of the varying embedding layer size. The early stopping criterion was implemented on the test subset to prevent the model from overfitting. Our results indicate that it is possible to compress the spectral line profiles more than 27 times (which corresponds to the reduction of the data dimensionality from 110 to 4) while having a 4DN average reconstruction error, which is comparable to the variations in the line continuum. The mean squared error and the reconstruction error of even statistical moments sharply decrease when the dimensionality of the embedding layer increases from 1 to 4 and almost stop decreasing for higher numbers. The observed occasional improvements in training for values higher than 4 indicate that a better compact embedding may potentially be obtained if other training strategies and longer training times are used. The features learned for the critical four-dimensional case can be interpreted. In particular, three of these four features mainly control the line width, line asymmetry, and line dip formation respectively. The presented results are the first attempt to obtain a compact embedding for spectroscopic line profiles and confirm the value of this approach, in particular for feature extraction, data compression, and denoising.
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Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.
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