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DOE OSTI2023

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2022

Utilizing Sensitivity and Correlation Coefficients from MCNP and Whisper to Guide Microreactor Experiment Design

When designing experiments for full-scale reactor systems, MCNP®* and Whisper can be used to create neutronic models and compare the similarity of two nuclear systems via correlation coefficients for κ eff , effective multiplication factor. This thesis applies this framework to a conceptual heat-pipe, yttrium-hydride moderated microreactor system and experiments. The framework is intended as a supplement to other neutronics/thermal/multiphysics analyses and provides a concrete method to measure the neutronic similarity of two systems. By analyzing the shared nuclear data uncertainty, as well as sensitivity to nuclear data over all neutron energies, highly informative experiments can be designed to aid in the development of microreactor and other advanced reactor technologies and systems.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Wood Decomposition: Understanding Processes Regulating Carbon Transfer to Soil Carbon Pools Using FACE Wood at Multiple Scales

Dead wood comprises approximately 20% of forest biomass. While it is widely recognized for its role in ecosystem functions relative to habitat and nutrient cycling, there are considerable uncertainties associated with its role in the forest carbon (C) cycle. The principal uncertainty is whether dead wood contributes to the soil C pool. With little supporting evidence, the presumption is that C in wood is respired back to the atmosphere through decomposition processes. The inability to attribute forest soil C to its source components has been a barrier to addressing this important forest carbon cycle question. The U.S. Dept. of Energy’s Free Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment produced wood that has a distinct δ 13 C signature that can be used to trace its fate through organic matter decomposition processes. Using two hardwood species (aspen, birch) from the Rhinelander FACE site and pine from the Duke FACE site, the FACE Wood Decomposition Experiment (FWDE) was established in 2011 to provide the foundation for addressing wood decomposition and its associated processes at the continental scale. Plots were installed on nine experimental forests representing a range in bioclimatic forest conditions within the continental U.S. Each identical plot has logs of the three species incubating on the soil surface and pine logs suspended in the air, representing standing dead wood. Abiotic conditions are monitored continuously, and soil and forest conditions characterized. Logs on the sites have been measured every two years to assess decay. This project was initiated in 2016 with specific objectives to: (a) determine whether dead wood C contributes to the soil C pool, (b) assess the fungal community composition mediating the decay, (c) assess the interactions of termites with microbial decay, and (d) develop a mechanistic model to simulate wood decomposition. The principal field sampling was conducted in 2017; correspondingly, the results reported here represent six years of decomposition. Wood decomposition varied from 13 to 75 % loss across the bioclimatic gradient. Sites in the southeastern U.S. coastal plain and piedmont had fastest decomposition rates for each of the species. In contrast sites in the Rocky Mountains had the slowest decay rates, which were associated with cold temperatures. Standing deadwood decomposes at a much slower rate than logs on the soil surface; a response due to differences in wood moisture content. Wood carbon was measured in the mineral soil across each of the sites; accordingly, this is the first study to affirm that a portion of the wood C does become part of the soil C pool. Averaged across the FWDE sites, approximately 1.4% of the soil C in the upper 10 cm of the mineral soil directly beneath the log was derived from the deadwood; within 50 cm of the log, wood C accounted for an average of 2.1%. These results demonstrate that the contribution of deadwood to the soil C pool is a soil volume surrounding the log; and it’s likely a larger volume than what we sampled. We also hypothesized that there would be more wood C in the mineral soil when termites were present. However, that hypothesis wasn’t supported by measurements on the Santee Experimental Forest termite exclusion (SEF-TX) plots under FACE logs that incubated for 6 years. Across all the sites, the majority of the wood C was transferred to the atmosphere. Approximately 7,000 fungal species were sequenced. The fungal communities were different among each of the sites suggesting local colonization; interestingly, within sites the three species also exhibited differences in fungal community composition. White rot was the dominant fungal form in pine and hardwood, which yields less lignin in the wood residue. Brown rot occurred in approximately 20% of the pine and aspen logs, and it did not occur in birch logs. The occurrence of brown rot was only weakly correlated to site factors. We conducted two additional experiments to assess the effects of termites on wood decomposition and the associated interactions with the fungal community. Pine and birch logs were incubated on the Santee Experimental Forest termite exclusion plots in upland and riparian settings. There was no difference in decay between areas where termites were able colonize and plots where they had been excluded. Highly variable foraging by termites was a primary contributor the result. Correspondingly, fungal communities did not vary on logs incubated among the two treatments, but they did reflect site and species differences. The second experiment was conducted on each of the nine FWDE sites where pine and birch wood blocks were incubated for two years with and without a wrapping designed to exclude termites and other arthropods. The effects of termites on wood decomposition could be confirmed on two of the four sites known to have subterranean termites. On the two southeastern sites, termites contributed approximately 8% to mass loss in pine blocks over two years. A major factor clouding the role of termites in wood decomposition is the inability to assess the time, duration, and intensity of the foraging with the logs. Another uncertainty is related to whether a piece of wood will be foraged. A process-based wood decomposition model was developed representing biological processes mediated by fungi, bacteria, termites, beetles, as well as physical and chemical processes. The Coarse Wood Decomposition Model (CWDM) was parameterized based on a thorough review of the literature and it was validated using data from the FWDE. In the initial setup, the model considers softwoods and hardwoods groups, as opposed to individual species. Sensitivity analyses incorporating climate data from 89 locations in North America demonstrated that CWDM was stable from the tropics to the boreal zone. Model calibration and validation showed it to perform very well. The CWDM is poised for additional testing with subsequent FWDE data as well as other data sets, and it is available for incorporation into forest biogeochemical models or DOEs Earth System Modeling framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Kinetic and temperature sensitivity properties of soil exoenzymes through the soil profile down to one-meter depth at a temperate coniferous forest (Blodgett, CA)

This dataset contains data on kinetic and temperature sensitivity parameters of the exoenzymes β-glucosidase (BG), leucine/leucyl aminopeptidase (LAP) and acid phosphatase (AP) across a soil profile down to 90 cm depth at Blodgett forest, CA, USA. These data were generated to determine if kinetic and thermal properties of microbial exoenzymes involved in organic matter decomposition varied with soil depth, following variation in soil properties and microbial communities, as part of the study: Alves et al. (2021). Kinetic Properties of Microbial Exoenzymes Vary with Soil Depth but Have Similar Temperature Sensitivities Through the Soil Profile. Frontiers in Microbiology 12:3618. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2021.735282. This research was performed within the framework of the TES Belowground Biogeochemistry SFA project, in particular association with a long-term field warming experiment of the whole soil profile at Blodgett forest. Samples for this work were collected from locations representative of the field experimental plots. Potential enzyme activity rates were measured using laboratory fluorometric assays with soils collected at 0-10, 10-20, 30-40, 50-60, 60-70 and 80-90 cm deep in biological triplicates (i.e., three soil cores collected at different representative locations). Assays with each soil were conducted over a gradient of eight substrate concentrations per enzyme, and incubated at 4, 10, 16, 25, 35 or 50°C. Enzyme Michaelis-Menten kinetics were modeled over the eight substrate concentrations at each temperature, and the temperature sensitivity of the kinetic parameters was modeled over the six temperatures using linear Arrhenius/Q10 and non-linear Macromolecular Rate Theory (MMRT) models. The dataset includes the fully processed enzyme activity rate data used to model Michaelis-Menten kinetics, calculated kinetic and temperature sensitivity parameters, and basic soil and microbial biomass chemistry for each sample. All data is provided for each individual biological replicate, and kinetic and temperature sensitivity parameters are also provided as means of the biological replicates. The dataset also includes all raw measurement data and code used to parse, combine and perform the analyses described by Alves et al. (2021). For file descriptions, see the file-level metadata files: “enzymes_dataProcessed_flmd.xlsx” (processed data); “enzymes_dataRaw_flmd.xlsx” (compressed raw data and metadata); and “enzymes_code_flmd.xlsx” (compressed code). The experimental design, list of parameters measured, soil and microbial biomass chemistry data, and means of biological replicates for kinetic and temperature sensitivity parameters are also provided as human-readable tables in file “enzymeTraits_design_results_tables.xlsx”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Energy-dependent optimization of the prompt fission neutron spectrum with CGMF

Throughout the course of FY21, significant effort was put into investigating models within the LANL developed Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay code, CGMF, to understand and potentially solve the long-standing challenge of a too-soft prompt fission neutron spectrum, PFNS. Several inputs and models to CGMF were investigated, including the discrete nuclear levels, the optical model potential, level densities, and the fission fragment initial conditions. Some of the global models within CGMF led to a slight hardening of the neutron spectrum—particularly the likely incomplete discrete levels in through which γ-rays decay—but none of the changes where large enough for the tail of the PFNS to reproduce experimental data. A significant hardening of the spectrum tail was observed when the fission fragment initial conditions were optimized based on their sensitivities to the PFNS data for thermal incident neutrons. In this way, the parameters for the CGMF mass and total kinetic energy distributions, along with the spin cutoff factor were adjusted to better reproduce the experimental PFNS measurements. This optimization hardened the tail of the PFNS slightly but led to unphysical mass distributions for the fission fragments before neutron emission. It was clear from the above that we do not expect to be able to produce an evaluation-quality PFNS with CGMF in the near future. Challenges at thermal will persist–and possibly worsen–with increasing incident energy, where more models are needed to completely describe the fission. Basic-science research funding exceeding the amount available and scope of our NCSP funds would be needed to tackle this decade-long challenge impacting many fission-fragment event generator. And, in fact, Amy Lovell won LDRD ECR funding to do so over the next few years. Therefore, we focused in FY22 on extending evaluation capabilities beyond thermal incident neutrons, to take into account the incident energy dependence of the PFNS and fission fragment initial condition distributions in CGMF. We chose to set up the evaluation methodology to perform PFNS evaluations with CGMF across incident-neutron energies, in order to have it readily available for future NCSP evaluations when the PFNS from CGMF has improved. In this report, we outline the evaluation methodology, along with the results of the optimization, including full model calculations with CGMF using the evaluated parameters.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven surrogate modeling of hPIC ion energy-angle distributions for high-dimensional sensitivity analysis of plasma parameters' uncertainty

In this work, we present a data-driven strategy for effective construction of a surrogate model in high-dimensional parameter space for the ion energy-angle distribution (IEAD) output of hPIC simulations of plasma-surface interactions. The methodology is based on a bin-by-bin least-squares fitting of the IEAD in the parameter space. The fitting is performed in a transformed coordinate system to normalize the IEAD, and it employs sparse grids for sampling the parameter space to overcome sampling challenges in high dimensions. The surrogate model is significantly cheaper computationally than direct hPIC simulations yet maintains high fidelity to them, providing a fast emulator for hPIC simulations. Sensitivity analysis based on the surrogate model is utilized to characterize the dependence of the ion impact angle and energy moments on the physical parameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A phase-field study of stainless-steel oxidation from high-temperature carbon dioxide exposure

An electrochemical phase-field model has been developed to investigate the oxidation mechanisms of the 21-2N valve stainless steel alloy exposed to carbon dioxide at 973 K. Three oxide phases observed in oxidation experiments are included in the model: Mn 3 O 4 , Cr 2 O 3 , and MnCr 2 O 4 . Local charge neutrality and the conserved current condition are assumed to include the impact of the electric potential on oxidation, though it is found to be negligible when the system is electrically isolated. The sensitivity of the oxidation processes to the values of the diffusion mobilities is examined, and the oxidation rate is calibrated against experimental data by modifying the sensitive mobilities. We find that both inward oxygen and outward metal diffusion are important for oxidation. Furthermore, by investigating the impact of the order of the initial oxide layers, we find that Cr 2 O 3 serves as a barrier to outward Mn diffusion. Moreover, controlling the initial oxide layer order can be used to limit oxidation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Soft Data Into Geostatistical Simulation of Categorical Variables

Uncertain or indirect “soft” data, such as geologic interpretation, driller’s logs, geophysical logs or imaging, offer potential constraints or “soft conditioning” to stochastic models of discrete categorical subsurface variables in hydrogeology such as hydrofacies. Previous bivariate geostatistical simulation algorithms have not fully addressed the impact of data uncertainty in formulation of the (co) kriging equations and the objective function in simulated annealing (or quenching). This paper introduces the geostatistical simulation code tsim-s, which accounts for categorical data uncertainty through a data “hardness” parameter. In generating geostatistical realizations with tsim-s, the uncertainty inherent to soft conditioning is factored into both 1) the data declustering and spatial correlation functions in cokriging and 2) the acceptance probability for change of category in simulated quenching. The degree or sensitivity to which soft data conditions a realization as a function of hardness can be quantified by mapping category probabilities derived from multiple realizations. In addition to point or borehole data, arrays of data (e.g., as derived from a depth-dependency function, probability map, or “prior realization”) can be used as soft conditioning. The tsim-s algorithm provides a theoretically sound and general framework for integrating datasets of variable location, resolution, and uncertainty into geostatistical simulation of categorical variables. A practical example shows how tsim-s is capable of generating a large-scale three-dimensional simulation including curvilinear features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Privacy First Path Analysis using Clickstream Data

In the modern digital economy, data-driven decision making is crucial for effectively meeting the ever-evolving demands of consumer engagement and satisfaction. Clickstream data has become invaluable for understanding customer behavior, yet concerns over privacy and security persist, especially with some internet service providers profiting from its sale. This article introduces an innovative methodology that blends experiential learning with advanced cryptographic techniques, including differential privacy and graph analytics. The core objective of this methodology is to estimate Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) by analyzing clickstream data, achieving an average prediction accuracy of 92.4% in user engagement levels while ensuring user anonymity through Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) analysis. Our study introduces the concept of a “data depositor” and a privacy manager, employing the composition theorem to merge non-adaptive queries effectively. Privacy budgets (? = 1.0, d = 10-5), sensitivity-specific techniques, and data partitioning were applied. Randomization and noise addition protect data integrity, with special handling for categorical values. This approach, differing from prior studies, offers a 12.6% improvement in privacy-preserving targeting accuracy while maintaining strict confidentiality, presenting a novel path forward in data-driven decision-making.

Frequency and Monetary (RFM) analysis↗

DOE OSTI2026

Unified and Consistent Structure Growth Measurements from Joint ACT, SPT, and Planck CMB Lensing

We present the tightest cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing constraints to date on the growth of structure by combining CMB lensing measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), the South Pole Telescope (SPT), and Planck. Each of these surveys individually provides lensing measurements with similarly high statistical power, achieving signal-to-noise ratios of approximately 40. The combined lensing band powers represent the most precise CMB lensing power spectrum measurement to date with a signal-to-noise ratio of 61 and an amplitude of A lens recon = 1.025 ± 0.017 with respect to the theory prediction from the best-fit CMB Planck-ACT cosmology. The band powers from all three lensing datasets, analyzed jointly, yield a 1.6% measurement of the parameter combination S 8 CMBL ≡ σ 8 ( Ω m / 0.3 ) 0.25 = 0.82 5 - 0.013 + 0.015 . Including dark energy spectroscopic instrument baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data improves the constraint on the amplitude of matter fluctuations to σ 8 = 0.829 ± 0.009 (a 1.1% determination). When combining with uncalibrated supernovae from Pantheon+, we present a 4% sound-horizon-independent estimate of H 0 = 66.4 ± 2.5 km s - 1 Mpc - 1 . The joint lensing constraints on structure growth and present-day Hubble rate are fully consistent with a Λ CDM model fit to the primary CMB data from Planck and ACT. While the precise upper limit is sensitive to the choice of data and underlying model assumptions, when varying the neutrino mass sum within the Λ CDM cosmological model, the combination of primary CMB, BAO, and CMB lensing drives the probable upper limit for the mass sum towards lower values, comparable to the minimum mass prior required by neutrino oscillation experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Thermal Scattering Law on Similarity Assessment in Light-Water or Polyethylene-Moderated Systems [Slides]

This presentation found validation efforts revealed noticeable differences in c k for light-water and polyethylene moderated systems when compared to PST-002-001. Additionally, although 1 H-H 2 O and 1 H-poly use the same cross section and covariance data, the treatment of TSLs in SCALE lead to no contribution to ck between polyethylene application and benchmark experiment. When H 2 O contribution were removed the difference in c k appears to come from 239 Pu chi. Sensitivity profiles and data-induced uncertainty confirmed that the polyethylene application was more closely resembling the benchmark experiment. Specific differences between similar systems can be accounted for and examined to help understand differences in similarity (c k ) between systems was a conclusion reached by this presentation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Value-of-Information Analysis of a Fracture Prediction Method

A core-based fracture prediction method is used to illustrate a Value of Information (VOI) decision-analysis protocol to inform completion decisions in tight-gas sandstones. The ratio of late host-rock cement to available pore volume or degradation index uses petrographic observations of cement distributions in core (including sidewall cores) to predict whether nearby but unsampled fractures (widths > 0.5 to 1 mm) are sealed (non-conductive) or open (conductive). Measurements from four sandstone plays suggest that the index correctly predicts open vs. sealed fractures with an accuracy in excess of 80%. The value added is calculated using Bayesian inference in which accuracy of the index serves as the likelihood of the prior distribution of open fractures to assess the posterior probability that data represent a useful predictor of producibility. VOI of the prediction method is more than three times the cost to acquire the data. VOI is most sensitive to play-specific geologic and cost parameters including cost to drill, expected revenue from a successful well, cost of completion, cost of acquiring data for the index, and fracture probability distributions. The approach provides a way to value acquiring fracture data and points to a need for zone-specific production data in tight-gas sandstones.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implications of first neutrino-induced nuclear recoil measurements in direct detection experiments: Probing nonstandard interaction via CE ν NS

PandaX-4T and XENONnT have recently reported the first measurement of nuclear recoils induced by the B 8 solar neutrino flux, through the coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering ( CE ν NS ) channel. As long anticipated, this is an important milestone for dark matter searches as well as for neutrino physics. This measurement means that these detectors have reached exposures such that searches for low mass, ≲ 10 GeV dark matter cannot be analyzed using the background-free paradigm going forward. It also opens a new era for these detectors to be used as neutrino observatories. In this paper we assess the sensitivity of these new measurements to new physics in the neutrino sector. We focus on neutrino nonstandard interactions (NSI) and show that—despite the still moderately low statistical significance of the signals—these data already provide valuable information. We find that limits on NSI from PandaX-4T and XENONnT measurements are comparable to those derived using combined COHERENT CsI and LAr data. Furthermore, they provide sensitivity to pure τ flavor parameters that are not accessible using stopped-pion or reactor sources. With larger exposures and consequently improvements of statistical uncertainties, forthcoming data from these experiments will provide important, novel results for CE ν NS -related physics. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Sierra, D. Aristizabal↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Methane Monitoring Platform Extension, Volume I: Final Technical Report

The IMMPE project, DE-FE0032284, was to enhance methane monitoring technologies and their applications across various natural gas asset classes. The scope included deploying advanced methane detection and monitoring technologies to identify and mitigate fugitive methane emissions, measuring emission rates, and assessing impacts. The findings included the successful mitigation of identified emissions and quantification of emission rates. A key outcome was the development of a comprehensive template and summary of recommendations for methane emissions monitoring, which is replicable for both upstream and downstream applications. Furthermore, the project emphasized the importance of education by providing training opportunities for technicians and regulators, thereby fostering awareness and promoting the adoption of cost-effective methane emissions monitoring and management techniques.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Perovskite- and Dye-Sensitized Solar-Cell Device Databases Auto-generated Using ChemDataExtractor

The number of scientific publications reporting cutting-edge third-generation photovoltaic devices is increasing rapidly, owing to the pressing need to develop renewable-energy technologies that address the climate-change crisis. Consequently, the field could benefit from a central repository where photovoltaic-performance metrics, such as the power-conversion efficiency (η) are recorded. We present two automatically generated databases that contain photovoltaic properties and device material data for dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) and perovskite solar cells (PSCs), totalling 660,881 data entries representing 57,678 photovoltaic devices. The databases were generated by applying the text-mining toolkit ChemDataExtractor on a corpus of 25,720 articles. A multi-faceted evaluation, incorporating manual and automatic methods, was applied to ensure that the data contained therein were of the highest quality, with precision metrics ranging from 73.1% to 95.8%. The DSC database contains 475,045 entries representing 41,680 devices, and the PSC database contains 185,836 entries representing 15,818 devices. The databases are available in MongoDB and JSON formats, which can be queried in Python, R, Java and MATLAB for data-driven photovoltaic materials discovery.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

IM3 Data Center Driven Grid Stress Dataset for the U.S. Western Interconnection

This dataset provides projected grid stress and reliability results (including all model inputs and outputs from an open-source grid operations modeling framework - GO), for the Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project, under varying levels of data center demand growth between 2025 and 2035 in the U.S. Western Interconnection. The scenarios and sensitivity experiments are combinations of different data center demand growth rates and energy, weather, population and economic pathways. Data center demand growth projections were sourced from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The data center demand growth projection names are: Low (3.71% annual data center demand growth) Moderate (5% annual data center demand growth) High (10% annual data center demand growth) Higher (15% annual data center demand growth) Energy, weather, population and economic pathways are informed by two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) following the hotter general circulation model (GCM) forcing group from a set of perturbed thermodynamics simulations. The resulting pathway names are: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The main scenarios and sensitivity experiments are detailed below. Reference scenario: The projected grid stress and reliability results for the U.S. Western Interconnection from a previous study. This scenario does not consider data center demand growth explicitly. Data center scenario: Building on the reference scenario, this scenario considers various data center growth rates and how they impact the U.S. Western Interconnection. Data center loads are modeled as flat 8760-hr profiles. This scenario does not consider new generation and transmission capacities specifically designed to meet the new data center demands. The related folder is named "flat". Delayed generator retirements sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different levels of natural gas and nuclear generator retirement delays. The resulting scenario names are: (1) postponing 100% nuclear retirements; (2) postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements; (3) postponing only 50% natural gas retirements; (4) postponing 100% nuclear and 50% natural gas retirements; (5) postponing 100% nuclear and 75% natural gas retirements; and (6) postponing 100% nuclear and 100% natural gas retirements. The related folder names are: no_gen_retire_0_gas, no_gen_retire_25_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas_only, no_gen_retire_75_gas, and no_gen_retire_100_gas. Demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different participation and compensation levels of data center demand response. The resulting scenario names are: (1) 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (2) 5% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; (3) 5% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation; (4) 15% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (5) 15% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; and (6) 15% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation. The related folder names are: dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5, and dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_15. Combination of delayed generator retirements and demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: The impact of combining postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements with 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation is simulated. The related folder is named "dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5_nuc_100_gas_25". Please refer to the README file for a detailed description of the dataset including individual files and references.

Artificial Intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nucleon isovector axial form factors

We present results for the isovector axial vector form factors obtained using thirteen 2 + 1 + 1 -flavor highly improved staggered quark (HISQ) ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The calculation of nucleon two- and three-point correlation functions has been done using Wilson-clover fermions. In the analysis of these data, we quantify the sensitivity of the results to strategies used for removing excited state contamination and invoke the partially conserved axial current relation between the form factors to choose between them. Our data driven analysis includes removing contributions from multihadron N π states that make significant contributions. Our final results are g A = 1.292 ( 53 ) stat ( 24 ) sys for the axial charge; g S = 1.085 ( 50 ) stat ( 103 ) sys and g T = 0.991 ( 21 ) stat ( 10 ) sys for the scalar and tensor charges; ⟨ r A 2 ⟩ = 0.439 ( 56 ) stat ( 34 ) sys fm 2 for the mean squared axial charge radius, g P * = 9.03 ( 47 ) stat ( 42 ) sys for the induced pseudoscalar charge; and g π N N = 14.14 ( 81 ) stat ( 85 ) sys for the pion-nucleon coupling. We also provide a parametrization of the axial form factor G A ( Q 2 ) over the range 0 ≤ Q 2 ≤ 1 GeV 2 for use in phenomenology and a comparison with other lattice determinations. We find that the various lattice data agree within 10% but are significantly different from the extraction of G A ( Q 2 ) from the ν -deuterium scattering data. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nucleon Isovector Axial Form Factors

We present results for the isovector axial vector form factors obtained using thirteen 2 + 1 + 1-flavor highly improved staggered quark (HISQ) ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The calculation of nucleon two- and three-point correlation functions has been done using Wilson-clover fermions. In the analysis of these data, we quantify the sensitivity of the results to strategies used for removing excited state contamination and invoke the partially conserved axial current relation between the form factors to choose between them. Our data driven analysis includes removing contributions from multihadron $Nπ$ states that make significant contributions. Our final results are $g_A$ = 1.292(53) stat (24) sys for the axial charge; $g_S$ = 1.085(50) stat (103) sys and $g_T$ = 0.991(21) stat (10) sys for the scalar and tensor charges; $\langle{r^2_A}\rangle$ = 0.439(56) sta t(34) sys fm 2 for the mean squared axial charge radius, $g^*_P$ = 9.03(47) stat (42) sys for the induced pseudoscalar charge; and $g_{πNN}$ = 14.14(81) stat (85) sys for the pion-nucleon coupling. We also provide a parametrization of the axial form factor $G_A(Q^2)$ over the range 0 ≤ $Q^2$ ≤ 1 GeV 2 for use in phenomenology and a comparison with other lattice determinations. We find that the various lattice data agree within 10% but are significantly different from the extraction of $G_A(Q^2)$ from the $ν$-deuterium scattering data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗