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DOE OSTI2021

The many-body expansion for aqueous systems revisited: III. Hofmeister ion – water interactions

We report a Many Body Energy (MBE) analysis of aqueous ionic clusters containing anions and cations at the two opposite ends of the Hofmeister series, viz. the kosmotropes Ca2+, SO42- and chaotropes NH4+ and ClO4- with 9 water molecules to quantify the how these ions in altering the interaction between the water molecules in their immediate surrounding. The current results are contrasted to the ones reported earlier for water clusters as well as for alkali metal and halide ion aqueous clusters of the same size, which lie in the middle of the Hofmeister series. Through this analysis, noteworthy differences between the MBE of kosmotropes and chaotropes were identified. The MBE of kosmotropes is dominated by ion-water interactions that extends beyond the 4-body term, the point at which the MBE of pure water converges. The percentage contribution of the 2- B to the total cluster binding energy is noticeably larger. The disruption due to the dominant ion results in weak, unfavorable water-water interactions. The MBE for chaotropes, on the other hand, was found to converge more quickly as it more closely resembles that of pure water clusters. Chaotropes exhibit weaker overall binding energies and ion-water interactions with more favorable water-water interactions, somewhat recovering the pattern of the 2-4 body terms exemplified by pure water clusters. More importantly, both kosmotropic and chaotropic ions exhibit an anticorrelation between the 2-B ion-water (I-W) and water-water (W-W) interactions as well as between the 3-B (I-W-W) and (I-W) interactions. The consideration of two different structural arrangements (ion inside and outside of a water cluster) suggests that fully solvated (ion inside) chaotropes disrupt the hydrogen bonding network in a similar manner as partially solvated (ion outside) kosmotropes and offer useful insights into the modeling requirements of bulk vs. an interface. Finally, the 2-B contribution to the total Basis Set Superposition Error (BSSE) correction for the kosmotropic and chaotropic ions follows the previously reported erf profile vs. intermolecular distance. When scaled for the corresponding dimer energies and distances, a single profile fits the current results together with all previously reported ones for the pure water and halide water clusters.

Herman, Kristina M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ligand efficacy shifts a nuclear receptor conformational ensemble between transcriptionally active and repressive states

Abstract Nuclear receptors (NRs) are thought to dynamically alternate between transcriptionally active and repressive conformations, which are stabilized upon ligand binding. Most NR ligand series exhibit limited bias, primarily consisting of transcriptionally active agonists or neutral antagonists, but not repressive inverse agonists—a limitation that restricts understanding of the functional NR conformational ensemble. Here, we report a NR ligand series for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ) that spans a pharmacological spectrum from repression (inverse agonism) to activation (agonism) where subtle structural modifications switch compound activity. While crystal structures provide snapshots of the fully repressive state, NMR spectroscopy and conformation-activity relationship analysis reveals that compounds within the series shift the PPARγ conformational ensemble between transcriptionally active and repressive conformations that are natively populated in the apo/ligand-free ensemble. Our findings reveal a molecular framework for minimal chemical modifications that enhance PPARγ inverse agonism and elucidate their influence on the dynamic PPARγ conformational ensemble.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Automated Shift Detection in Sensor-Based PV Power and Irradiance Time Series: Preprint

PV power and irradiance sensor-based measurements are prone to error, resulting in issues such as abrupt time series data shifts. These shifts, which are usually unintentional, may be caused by software or hardware configuration changes on a PV system, and do not reflect an actual change in overall system performance. Locating these shifts and segmenting the associated time series aids in more accurate future PV analysis. In this research, an offline changepoint detection (CPD) algorithm that automatically detects these abrupt data shifts in sensor-based time series is introduced. Data shift periods in 101 daily PV power and irradiance time series were labeled manually by two solar experts. These data streams represent sensor-based measurements, and display a variety of data shift behaviors. A changepoint detection algorithm was tuned using the 101 labeled data streams, with each model configuration's ability to detect labeled changepoints benchmarked using metrics such as F1-score, recall, and Rand Index. Best performing models on seasonality-corrected data streams include the Pruned Exact Linear (PELT) method, the Binary Segmentation method, and the Bottom-Up method, all scoring an average F1-score of 0.76 or greater at detecting labeled changepoints within a 30-day window for the labeled data sets. To promote further research in this space, we are releasing the labeled data shift sets on U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) DuraMAT Data Hub, and the associated algorithm in the Python PVAnalytics package.

changepoint detection↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Large-Scale Data Management Platform for Photovoltaic Power Conversion Equipment (PCE) Reliability Data

To meet the demand for accuracy and real-time capability of PV system degradation evaluation, massive volume data is needed to run high-fidelity and high-efficiency simulations and perform advanced data analysis. However, PV farm operators have a series of difficulties with PV inverter data, such as data collection from multiple channels, massive data storage, data management and massive data analysis. To address these challenges, we developed an integrated data management platform capable of data acquisition, processing, storage, query, and performing big data analysis utilizing AI algorithms. The platform can also achieve data correctness verification and provide an effective distributed data management solution to retrieve massive data and establish a connection to distributed computational frameworks.

data management platform↗

DOE OSTI2022

Automated Shift Detection in Sensor-Based PV Power and Irradiance Time Series

changepoint detection↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Large-Scale Data Management Platform for Photovoltaic Power Conversion Equipment (PCE) Reliability Data: Preprint

data management↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating alternative steam generation pathways in the food industry

Steam generation in the food sector requires substantial energy and cost expenditures, requiring nearly half of its energy intake. Here, we used life cycle assessment and life cycle cost assessment to investigate the cost and energy impacts of steam generating alternatives: NG, biomass and hydrogen boilers and grid-supplied and self-generated electric steam generation systems (electric boilers, renewable thermal energy storage and industrial heat pumps). The analysis starts with a set of average U.S. conditions, where biomass boilers are the most cost-competitive alternative to NG. In a series of scenarios beyond average conditions, the analysis shows energy procurement costs dominate the total life cycle cost for all technologies and, unfortunately, are highly variable geographically and temporally, significantly affecting the viability of the alternatives. Results show that site-energy consumption ranges from 0.3 MMBtu/klb for industrial heat pumps to 1.6 MMBtu/klb for biomass boilers, with heat pumps achieving up to 78% lower energy use compared to natural gas systems. For the steam costs, the results show a range between $\$$8 and $\$$50/klb for NG, with biomass following closely ($\$$11 – $\$$44/klb) and grey hydrogen and IHP next ($\$$13 – $\$$33/klb and $\$$6 - $\$$78/klb), with cost reductions if IHP's cooling is utilized. Factors like operating hours, the need for cooling, and the ability to negotiate utility rates complicate the decision, making site-specific analyses critical. Therefore, we present a decision-making matrix to help manufacturers identify which steam generating technology is the best business decision for their situation. Overall, these results highlight the importance of steam generation for the facility's organizational goals, as well as the criticality of conducting individual site analyses.

Biomass boilers↗

DOE OSTI2026

Monitoring of Liquid Metal Reactor Heater Zones with Recurrent Neural Network Learning of Temperature Time Series

Advanced high-temperature fluid reactors (ARs), such as sodium fast reactors (SFRs) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCRs) utilize high-temperature fluids at ambient pressure. To melt the fluid during reactor startup and prevent fluid freezing during cooldown, the thermal–hydraulic systems of such ARs include heater zones consisting of specific heaters with controllers, temperature sensors, and thermal insulation. The failure of heater zones due to insulation material degradation or improper installation, resulting in parasitic heat losses, can lead to fluid freezing. The detection of faults using a heat-transfer model is difficult because of a lack of knowledge of the experimental details. Data-driven machine learning of heater zone temperature time series offers a viable alternative. In this study, we benchmarked the performance of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in an analysis of heat-up transient temperature time series of heater zones installed on a liquid sodium vessel. The RNN models include long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks, as well as their bi-directional variants, BiLSTM and BiGRU. Anomalous temperature points were designated using a percentile-based threshold applied to residual fluctuations in the detrended temperature time series. Additionally, the impact of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method on detection accuracy was examined. The RNN models’ performance was assessed using precision, recall, and F 1 score metrics. Results demonstrated that RNN models effectively detect anomalies in temperature time series with the best models for each heater zone achieving F 1 scores of over 93%. To explain the variations in RNN model performance across different heater zones, we used Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence to quantify the relative entropy between training and testing data, and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to assess long-range temporal correlations. For datasets with strong long-range correlations and minimal relative entropy between training and testing data, GRU is the best-performing model. When the data exhibits weaker long-term correlations and a significant relative entropy between training and testing distributions, BiGRU shows the best performance. For the data sets with intermediate values of both KL divergence and DFA, the best performance is obtained with LSTM and BiLSTM, respectively.

gated recurrent unit↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of the Cu oxidation state from EELS and XAS spectra using supervised machine learning

Abstract Electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) and X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) provide detailed information about bonding, distributions and locations of atoms, and their coordination numbers and oxidation states. However, analysis of XAS/EELS data often relies on matching an unknown experimental sample to a series of simulated or experimental standard samples. This limits analysis throughput and the ability to extract quantitative information from a sample. In this work, we have trained a random forest model capable of predicting the oxidation state of copper based on its L-edge spectrum. Our model attains an R 2 score of 0.85 and a root mean square error of 0.24 on simulated data. It has also successfully predicted experimental L-edge EELS spectra taken in this work and XAS spectra extracted from the literature. We further demonstrate the utility of this model by predicting simulated and experimental spectra of mixed valence samples generated by this work. This model can be integrated into a real-time EELS/XAS analysis pipeline on mixtures of copper-containing materials of unknown composition and oxidation state. By expanding the training data, this methodology can be extended to data-driven spectral analysis of a broad range of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Resurgence, conformal blocks, and the sum over geometries in quantum gravity

In two dimensional conformal field theories the limit of large central charge plays the role of a semi-classical limit. Certain universal observables, such as conformal blocks involving the exchange of the identity operator, can be expanded around this classical limit in powers of the central charge c. This expansion is an asymptotic series, so — via the same resurgence analysis familiar from quantum mechanics — necessitates the existence of non-perturbative effects. In the case of identity conformal blocks, these new effects have a simple interpretation: the CFT must possess new primary operators with dimension of order the central charge. This constrains the data of CFTs with large central charge in a way that is similar to (but distinct from) the conformal bootstrap. We study this phenomenon in three ways: numerically, analytically using Zamolodchikov’s recursion relations, and by considering non-unitary minimal models with large (negative) central charge. In the holographic dual to a CFT2, the expansion in powers of c is the perturbative loop expansion in powers of ћ. So our results imply that the graviton loop expansion is an asymptotic series, whose cure requires the inclusion of new saddle points in the gravitational path integral. In certain cases these saddle points have a simple interpretation: they are conical excesses, particle-like states with negative mass which are not in the physical spectrum but nevertheless appear as non-manifold saddle points that control the asymptotic behaviour of the loop expansion. This phenomenon also has an interpretation in SL(2, R) Chern-Simons theory, where the non-perturbative effects are associated with the non-Teichmüller component of the moduli space of flat connections.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of Digital Twin Predictive Model for PWR Components: Updates on Multi Times Series Temperature Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Network, DMW Fatigue Tests, System Level Thermal-Mechanical-Stress Analysis

The long-term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plant (NPP) beyond their original design life of 40 years, can lead to more material damage associated with cyclic fatigue under thermal-mechanical loading cycles and associated long-term exposure of reactor material to the deleterious reactor-coolant environments. However, under this LTO condition the reactor components can still safely operate but may require more frequent Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) of reactor components. Frequent NDE requirement may lead to frequent shutdown of the NPP. This in turn can lead to power outage and additional NDE-inspection-cost related economic loss. The economic loss can be minimized by reducing uncertainty in life estimation of safety-critical pressure boundary components and by implementing more digital approach such as by using upcoming digital-twin (DT) technology for predicting the structural states (e.g., time and location dependent inside/outside thickness temperature, stress, strain, plastic deformation, etc.) and associated fatigue life of a component in real time. Towards this goal Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program is working on the development of a DT framework that can be used for real time environmental fatigue prediction of reactor components. The DT framework is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics such as finite element (FE) based modeling tools. Towards this overall goal, following are some of the major contributions made during the FY21: 1) Multiple 82/182 dissimilar metal weld (DMW) specimens (both solid-weld and joint-weld representing the actual reactor multi-metal nozzles) were fatigue tested. The resulting fatigue lives were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. Additionally, the results of 52/152 DMW fatigue specimens (which were recently tested at Republic of Korea under the sponsorship of International Nuclear Energy Research Initiative - INERI program) were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. From the comparison of 82/182 and 52/152 DMW test data with NUREG-6909 best-fit curve, most of the reported test data fall way away from the NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit or mean curve. The NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit curve is the best-fit curve of austenitic stainless steel and due to lack of enough data on Nickel-based welds, this is currently being used for predicting the life of Nickel-alloy-based welded components. However, the above observation may require higher scaling factor (e.g., ASME suggested factor of 20 on cycles rather than the current NUREG-6909 suggested factor of 12 on cycles) for scaling the austenitic-stainless-steel best-fit-curve for estimating the design or safe-life of a welded component. Accordingly, for example, if a DMW component experience a strain amplitude of 0.6% the PWR-water life of the component would be 52 cycles instead of 85 cycles. However, more DMW tests are required to further ascertain the above-mentioned observations. 2) A system level CAD and finite element model were developed which consists of reactor pressure vessel (RPV), part of steam generator (SG), part of pressurizer (PRZ), hot leg (HL), and surge line (SL). This is with detailed nozzle geometry and thermal-mechanical material properties of different metals to simulate realistic thermal-mechanical stress under connected system global thermal-mechanical boundary conditions. 3) Different system level heat transfer analyses were performed with estimation of relevant heat transfer coefficients. The resulting data were used in subsequent system level thermal-mechanical stress analysis and for generating spatial-temporal training and validation data for a system level digital-twin based temperature predictor. Transient heat transfer analyses were performed considering thermal boundary condition under design-basis (DB) loading and EDF (Électricité de France) data-based grid-load-following (EDF-GLF) loading cycles. 4) System level thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed for identifying damage-prone hotspots and for future extension of the model for cyclic state prediction. From the system-level model simulation under DB loading cycle it is found that HL and the SL nozzle that connect to the HL can experience significant stress and strain and could be one of the weakest links in the overall reactor coolant system (RCS). 5) An AI/ML based DT model was developed for multi-time-series temperature prediction at any inside/outside thickness locations of PWR pressure boundary components. This is by using Recurrent-neural-network (RNN) and keras machine learning libraries. The RNN model was validated against two laboratory test-based data sets with one obtained through ANL’s in-air fatigue test system and other through PWR-water test loop. The experimentally validated DT model further validated against FE model results to predict thermal scarification related spatialtemporal temperatures at random locations of a component. The well validated DT model was then used for demonstrating spatial-temporal temperature prediction under 100+ years of reactor operation subjected to combined DB, EDF-GLF and randomized grid-load-following (RANDOMGLF) loading Cycles. The expert-elicitation DT model framework was developed assuming field/input/process measurements can be available from a few existing plant sensors and can readily be used by the NPP operators. The above temperature prediction model will feed to the next-step stress analysis model based on which the life of a component can be predicted in realtime, which is one of our future works.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Square Kilometre Array Science Data Challenge 1: analysis and results

ABSTRACT As the largest radio telescope in the world, the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will lead the next generation of radio astronomy. The feats of engineering required to construct the telescope array will be matched only by the techniques developed to exploit the rich scientific value of the data. To drive forward the development of efficient and accurate analysis methods, we are designing a series of data challenges that will provide the scientific community with high-quality data sets for testing and evaluating new techniques. In this paper, we present a description and results from the first such Science Data Challenge 1 (SDC1). Based on SKA MID continuum simulated observations and covering three frequencies (560, 1400, and 9200 MHz) at three depths (8, 100, and 1000 h), SDC1 asked participants to apply source detection, characterization, and classification methods to simulated data. The challenge opened in 2018 November, with nine teams submitting results by the deadline of 2019 April. In this work, we analyse the results for eight of those teams, showcasing the variety of approaches that can be successfully used to find, characterize, and classify sources in a deep, crowded field. The results also demonstrate the importance of building domain knowledge and expertise on this kind of analysis to obtain the best performance. As high-resolution observations begin revealing the true complexity of the sky, one of the outstanding challenges emerging from this analysis is the ability to deal with highly resolved and complex sources as effectively as the unresolved source population.

Bonaldi, A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Impact of a Smart Battery Sorting System

Create analytical framework to capture costs and benefits of the automated sorting into battery recycling including the development and deployment of various types of battery recycling technologies such as pyrometallurgical, hydrometallurgical, and direct recycling. Li Industries, Inc. is a Virginia startup company focused on reinventing how lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are recycled. Li Industries is focused on developing direct LIB recycling and automated battery sorting technologies in order to reduce the environmental impact of the LIB lifecycle. This work is to be conducted in support of the American-Made Challenges Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling Prize. Li Industries and NREL will work together to understand how novel technologies, such as those being developed by Li Industries, can impact the development and economics of the battery recycling industry. This voucher is being used to evaluate the profitability of an automated sorting system developed by Li Industries and the potential effect this increased value could have on the domestic lithium-ion battery (LIB) recycling industries in the United States. NREL has developed the Lithium-Ion Battery Resources Assessment (LIBRA) system dynamics model to project the future viability of the US LIB manufacturing and recycling industries under varying technoeconomic conditions and battery adoption scenarios over the coming decades. Additional logic was added to LIBRA to analyze the role automated sorting of recycling feedstock could play in the buildout of the industry and the impacts it has on the recovery of end-of-life (EOL) battery materials. This report summarizes the outcomes of this modeling analysis in the US context through a series of sensitivity analyses run for a range of values of a given input dimension and compared across the unsorted or automated sorting cases for LIB recycling feedstock. For greater detail on the process and analysis, the researchers are publishing a forthcoming journal article titled Techno-Economic Impact of a Smart Battery Sorting System for Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling and Mineral Recovery in the United States by Weigl, et al. In the event the article is not accepted by any currently seeking publication in academic or industry journal, it may be published by NREL. CRADA benefit to DOE, Participant, and US Taxpayer: assists laboratory in achieving programmatic scope competencies, uses the laboratory's core competencies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fluidized Bed Gasification For Conversion of Biomass and Waste Materials to Renewable Hydrogen

This project was undertaken in order to study the potential for hydrogen production, at low cost, from mixtures of biomass and municipal solid waste (MSW). This approach allows for the production of hydrogen with a very low fossil carbon burden, while taking advantage of tipping fees (associated with MSW) to improved process economics. The team sourced three primary feedstocks (wood, MSW, and waste plastics) and characterized them comprehensively using established techniques with a long track record in the field of gasification. All three primary feedstocks were highly reactive and lost most of their mass during initial devolatilization. The production of tars, including heavy tars, was quite high, and was most problematic in the case of the MSW and Waste Plastics feedstocks. Little practical difference was identified between the MSW and Waste Plastics materials, and the addition of bed-forming materials (dolomite and brown alumina) to the feedstocks was found to reduce production of tars during devolatilization under thermogravimetric analysis and/or Fischer Assay conditions. A series of four tests in a lab-scale bubbling-fluidized-bed gasifier, at 50 psig of pressure and about 825 C, confirmed these findings. Pellet feedstocks, broken into fragments, were used for these tests, and pellets comprised of 50% MSW and 50% biomass were found to be the best option in terms of fossil carbon burden, economic potential, and gasification characteristics. Tests were then undertaken in a pilot-scale gasifier facility based on the GTI U-Gas fluidized-bed gasification technology. The feedstock handling train of the 20 TPD U-Gas pilot-scale gasifier located in Des Plaines, IL, was operated under simulated gasification conditions, and the 50/50 pellets were found to be very robust and unproblematic. An improved design for the forward end of the feedstock injection screw of the gasifier was developed and installed. The design approach was based on improved passive cooling of the front-most shroud at the end of the screw, since this approach was found in comprehensive modeling studies to be more than sufficient to accomplish the project objectives associated with this phase of the work, while also avoiding thermal gradients that could have caused heat-stress-induced damage to the refractory around the feedstock inlet if an active cooling approach had been applied. Careful technoeconomic analysis (TEA) of two possible 1000 TPD facilities was carried out. The TEA of conversion of MSW with corn stover in one case, and MSW with woody feedstock in the other case, showed that both had the potential to provide hydrogen at about $1/kg (minimum selling price, 2018 dollar basis). Of the two TEA cases, the one that was based on the conversion of wood in the southeastern USA was found to have slightly better economic potential. The other TEA case was based on a real location in Nebraska and called for corn stover feedstock conversion along with MSW. An underserved communities outreach program plan was developed in cooperation with personnel from the Nebraska Public Power District.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating an executive summary of a time series: the tendency

In this paper, we revisit the problem of decomposing a signal into a tendency and a residual. The tendency describes an executive summary of a signal that encapsulates its notable characteristics while disregarding seemingly random, less interesting aspects. Building upon the Intrinsic Time Decomposition (ITD) and information-theoretical analysis, we introduce two alternative procedures for selecting the tendency from the ITD baselines. The first is based on the maximum extrema prominence, namely the maximum difference between extrema within each baseline. Specifically this method selects the tendency as the baseline from which an ITD step would produce the largest decline of the maximum prominence. The second method uses the rotations from the ITD and selects the tendency as the last baseline for which the associated rotation is statistically stationary. We delve into a comparative analysis of the information content and interpretability of the tendencies obtained by our proposed methods and those obtained through conventional low-pass filtering schemes, particularly the Hodrik–Prescott (HP) filter. Our findings underscore a fundamental distinction in the nature and interpretability of these tendencies, highlighting their context-dependent utility with emphasis in multi-scale signals. Through a series of real-world applications, we demonstrate the computational robustness and practical utility of our proposed tendencies, emphasizing their adaptability and relevance in diverse time series contexts.

Time series analysis↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncovering a CF 3 Effect on X‐ray Absorption Energies of [Cu(CF 3 ) 4 ] − and Related Copper Compounds by Using Resonant Diffraction Anomalous Fine Structure (DAFS) Measurements**

Abstract Understanding the electronic structures of high‐valent metal complexes aids the advancement of metal‐catalyzed cross coupling methodologies. A prototypical complex with formally high valency is [Cu(CF 3 ) 4 ] − (1), which has a formal Cu(III) oxidation state but whose physical analysis has led some to a Cu(I) assignment in an inverted ligand field model. Recent examinations of1by X‐ray spectroscopies have led previous authors to contradictory conclusions, motivating the re‐examination of its X‐ray absorption profile here by a complementary method, resonant diffraction anomalous fine structure (DAFS). From analysis of DAFS measurements for a series of seven mononuclear Cu complexes including1, here it is shown that there is a systematic trifluoromethyl effect on X‐ray absorption that blue shifts the resonant Cu K‐edge energy by 2–3 eV per CF 3 , completely accounting for observed changes in DAFS profiles between formally Cu(III) complexes like1and formally Cu(I) complexes like (Ph 3 P) 3 CuCF 3 (3). Thus, in agreement with the inverted ligand field model, the data presented herein imply that1is best described as containing a Cu(I) ion with d n count approaching 10.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

Past fires and post-fire impacts reconstructed from a southwest Australian stalagmite

Speleothem records of past environmental change provide an important opportunity to explore fire frequency and intensity in the past, and the antecedent climatic conditions leading to fire events. Here, fire sensitive geochemical signals in a stalagmite from Yonderup Cave, a shallow cave in Western Australia, are compared to well-documented wildfire events that occurred in recent decades. The results are extended to identify wildfires during the growth interval of the speleothem (1760 CE–2005 CE). Principal component analysis of the stalagmite time-series revealed distinct peaks in a combination of phosphorus and metal (aluminium, zinc, copper and lead) concentrations in response to known fire events, which are interpreted to have come from ash. Varying responses in the geochemical signal in the pre- and post-European colonisation period are likely linked to changes in land management, fire frequency and fire intensities. Of note is what we infer to be a particularly intense fire event concluded to have occurred in 1897 ± 5 CE, which climate sensitive proxies (δ18O and bedrock-derived elements) indicate was preceded by a multi-decadal dry period that began in the late 1860s. The intensity of the deduced fire event is supported by a peak in P that is 6.3 times higher than elsewhere in the speleothem, accompanied by a peak in Zn. It was also inferred that changes to the surface-cave hydrology occurred as a result of this event, indicated by increased input of colloidal organic material onto the stalagmite that was interpreted to be caused by shallow karst bedrock fracturing from the heat-induced deformation that is observed after intense fires. These findings show the potential for speleothems to provide dated records of fire intensity and recurrence intervals. Further development could lead to a better understanding of the climate-fire relationship and the effects of land-management practices on wildfire frequency and intensity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity analysis of a parameterization of coagulation in an aqueous transport model

A three-dimensional aqueous transport model, ALGE, was developed at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) as a tool for emergency response. Recently, coagulation and break-up of sediment and particulate (contaminant adhered to sediment) matter has been added as a new model capability, representing both processes as functions of salinity and turbulence. A sensitivity analysis was performed by comparing time series of sediment and particulate concentrations at various locations when the model’s parameters (particle size and density) are altered. The results show significant differences between experiments in both freshwater and saltwater systems parameters vary (P-values < 0.05). From this sensitivity study, we have concluded the importance of incorporating both salinity and turbulent effects, as they have a large role in the physical process of coagulation and breakup of sediment. By accounting for these physical processes, we have made the ALGE model a more robust tool for emergency response.

Aqueous fate and transport↗