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At least 271 records · Page 15

Iowa’s agriculture is losing its Goldilocks climate

The Iowa landscape is endowed with rich, deep, dark soils that have high water-holding capacity. Because most of the state’s land is flat or gently rolling, agriculture can be practiced with large, efficient machinery. Historically, Iowa’s average climate is characterized by a growing season of about five to six months with favorable sunshine and warm temperatures. Its crop-dormant season has low enough temperatures to prevent overwintering of detrimental pests and pathogens. The seasonal cycle of precipitation has a spring–summer maximum and a winter minimum that generally provide a sufficient and timely supply of water to support high crop densities without the need for irrigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Use of the negative binomial-truncated Poisson distribution in thunderstorm prediction

A probability model is presented for the distribution of thunderstorms over a small area given that thunderstorm events (1 or more thunderstorms) are occurring over a larger area. The model incorporates the negative binomial and truncated Poisson distributions. Probability tables for Cape Kennedy for spring, summer, and fall months and seasons are presented. The computer program used to compute these probabilities is appended.

Cohen, A. C.↗

Mars atmosphere during the Mariner 9 extended mission: Television results

Data from the Mariner 9 extended mission provide a record of seasonally varying processes from mid-spring to early summer in the Northern Hemisphere of Mars. Atmospheric phenomena observed by the television cameras during this period are: (1) A faint shelf of brightness near 20 km in height; (2) condensate clouds over Hellas in the early morning, (3) wave clouds over the south polar region indicating strong west to east winds; (4) faint wave clouds over the north polar cap indicating northeast to southwest flow off the cap; and (5) clouds over the major vocanos and Tithonius Lacus which show remarkable repeatability, strong topographic control, and, in some cases, evidence for convective structure.

Leovy, C. B.↗

Variability of ozone near the tropopause from GASP data

The first 22 months of ozone data from the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program are summarized. Variations in space and time were examined at nearly all scales permitted by the data. Case studies in the tropics suggest that local ozone maxima may be found in or near clouds. Preliminary seasonal mean maps of ozone during spring are presented for the Northern Hemisphere. In the troposphere over the United States during summer there is a distinct midcontinental ozone maximum. There is a diurnal variation in ozone in the upper troposphere and the daily range is about 5 ppbv. Correlations between ozone and other variables are given for the synoptic-scale and on a hemispheric scale. The possible bearing of these results on ozone transport computations is discussed.

Nastrom, G. D.↗

Global optical climatology of the free tropospheric aerosol from 1.0-micron satellite occultation measurements

Measurements of the aerosol/molecular extinction ratio at 1-micron wavelength, obtained from the SAGE I, SAGE II, and SAM II solar occultation satellite experiments between 1978 and 1986, have been used to study the global-scale behavior of the upper tropospheric aerosol. The distribution of extinction ratio values shows a pronounced mode between about 0.5 and 5 in all data subsets, regardless of latitude and season. Within a given latitude band and season with mode value is nearly constant over the altitude range from about 5 km above the earth's surface to 3 km below the tropopause. The mode shows a distinct seasonal variation, with maxima in local spring and summer, and is significantly enhanced following vlocanic injection of material into the stratosphere. South of latitude 20-deg N, mode values in the absence of volcanic contamination are normally between 0.5 and 1.0 north of 20-deg N, values up to about 5 are observed, probably associated with aerosol derived from surface dust or anthropogenic sources. A secondary mode, with extinction ratios of 30 or greater and little or no variation of extinction with wavelength, is apparent just below the tropopause. This mode is believed to be associated with thin cloud along the ray path from the sun to the satellite.

Kent, G. S.↗

Application of a planetary wave breaking parameterization to stratospheric circulation statistics

The planetary wave parameterization scheme developed recently by Garcia is applied to statospheric circulation statistics derived from 12 years of National Meteorological Center operational stratospheric analyses. From the data a planetary wave breaking criterion (based on the ratio of the eddy to zonal mean meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients), a wave damping rate, and a meridional diffusion coefficient are calculated. The equatorward flank of the polar night jet during winter is identified as a wave breaking region from the observed PV gradients; the region moves poleward with season, covering all high latitudes in spring. Derived damping rates maximize in the subtropical upper stratosphere (the 'surf zone'), with damping time scales of 3-4 days. Maximum diffusion coefficients follow the spatial patterns of the wave breaking criterion, with magnitudes comparable to prior published estimates. Overall, the observed results agree well with the parameterized calculations of Garcia.

Randel, William J.↗

Water Ice Cloud Opacities and Temperatures Derived from the Viking IRTM Data Set

The degree to which water ice clouds play a role in the Mars climate is unknown. Latent heating of water ice clouds is small and since most hazes appeared to be thin (tau less than or = 1) their radiative effects have been neglected. Condensation likely limits the vertical extent of water vapor in the water column and a lowering of the condensation altitude, as seen in the northern spring and summer, could increase the seasonal exchange of water between the atmosphere and the surface. It has been suggested that water ice cloud formation is more frequent and widespread in the aphelic hemisphere (currently the northern). This may limit water to the northern hemisphere through greater exchange with the regolith and through restricted southward transport of water vapor by the Mars Hadley circulation. In addition, it has been suggested that water ice cloud formation also controls the vertical distribution of atmospheric dust in some seasons. This scavenging of dust may Continuing from the IRTM cloud maps, derived cloud opacities and cloud temperatures for several locations and seasons will be presented. Sensitivities to cloud particle sizes, surface temperature, and dust opacity will be discussed.

TamppariL. K.↗

Phytoplankton Assemblage Patterns in the Southern Mid-Atlantic Bight

As part of the Wallops Coastal Oceans Observing Laboratory (Wa-COOL) Project, we sampled a time-series transect in the southern Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) biweekly. Our 2-year time-series data included physical parameters, nutrient concentrations, and chlorophyll a concentrations. A detailed phytoplankton assemblage structure was examined in the second year. During the 2-year study, chlorophyll a concentration (and ocean color satellite imagery) indicated that phytoplankton blooms occurred in January/February during mixing conditions and in early autumn under stratified conditions. The chlorophyll a concentrations ranged from 0.25 microgram 1(exp -1) to 15.49 microgram 1(exp -1) during the 2-year period. We were able to discriminate approximately 116 different species under phase contrast microscopy. Dominant phytoplankton included Skeletonema costatum, Rhizosolenia spp., and Pseudo-nitzschia pungens. In an attempt to determine phytoplankton species competition/succession within the assemblage, we calculated a Shannon Weaver diversity index for our diatom microscopy data. Diatom diversity was greatest during the winter and minimal during the spring. Diatom diversity was also greater at nearshore stations than at offshore stations. Individual genera appeared patchy, with surface and subsurface patches appearing abruptly and persisting for only 1-2 months at a time. The distribution of individual species differed significantly from bulk variables of the assemblage (chlorophyll a ) and total phytoplankton assemblage (cells), which indicates that phytoplankton species may be limited in growth in ways that differ from those of the total assemblage. Our study demonstrated a highly diverse phytoplankton assemblage throughout the year, with opportunistic species dominating during spring and fall in response to seasonal changes in temperature and nutrients in the southern MAB.

Mid-Atlantic↗

Comparison of OMI NO2 Observations and Their Seasonal and Weekly Cycles with Ground-Based Measurements in Helsinki

We present the comparison of satellite-based OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) NO2 products with ground-based observations in Helsinki. OMI NO2 total columns, available from standard product (SP) and DOMINO algorithm, are compared with the measurements performed by the Pandora spectrometer in Helsinki in 2012. The relative difference between Pandora 21 and OMI SP retrievals is 4 and 6 for clear sky and all sky conditions, respectively. DOMINO NO2 retrievals showed slightly lower total columns with median differences about 5 and 14 for clear sky and all sky conditions, respectively. Large differences often correspond to cloudy autumn-winter days with solar zenith angles above 65. Nevertheless, the differences remain within the retrieval uncertainties. Furthermore, the weekly and seasonal cycles from OMI, Pandora and NO2 surface concentrations are compared. Both satellite- and ground-based data show a similar weekly cycle, with lower NO2 levels during the weekend compared to the weekdays as result of reduced emissions from traffic and industrial activities. Also the seasonal cycle shows a similar behavior, even though the results are affected by the fact that most of the data are available during spring-summer because of cloud cover in other seasons. This is one of few works in which OMI NO2 retrievals are evaluated in an urban site at high latitudes (60N). Despite the city of Helsinki having relatively small pollution sources, OMI retrievals have proved to be able to describe air quality features and variability similar to surface observations. This adds confidence in using satellite observations for air quality monitoring also at high latitudes.

Validation↗

Life Cycle Analysis of Growing Canola for Biofuel Production in the United States

This study quantifies and compares the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of renewable diesel (RD), sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and biodiesel (BD) produced from two U.S. canola production systems: 1) emerging intermediate winter canola, typically grown in double- or relay-cropping systems between the growing seasons of main crops, and 2) main canola, mostly spring canola but also including winter canola, which are grown as primary crops occupying the field for a full growing season. Using the Research and Development version of the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model and the most up-to-date life cycle inventory data─field trial data for intermediate winter canola (>37,000 acres) and recent national survey data for spring canola─this life cycle analysis (LCA) estimates the direct emissions from canola cultivation and harvest, the conversion of canola into fuels, fuel transportation, and combustion. In addition, we account for market-mediated emissions associated with a scenario of 0.5 billion gallons per year of spring canola-based biofuels, including induced land use change (ILUC), induced other crop (nonfeedstock) production changes, and induced livestock production changes. For intermediate winter canola, these market-mediated effects were not modeled, as ILUC is expected to be negligible due to its integration into existing rotations, and data are currently insufficient to reliably quantify other market-mediated changes. The estimated life cycle direct emissions of RD/SAF derived from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 32 and 33 g of CO2-equivalent per megajoule of fuel (g CO 2 e/MJ), respectively. Corresponding emissions for BD from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 30 and 31 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. Farming is the dominant emissions source for both canola systems, with intermediate winter canola and main spring canola emitting about 19 and 20 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. ILUC and other induced changes increase emissions of main spring canola-derived RD/SAF and BD by about 18 and 17 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. These results indicate that the GHG emissions of biofuels produced from the two canola systems may differ substantially due to the different land use dynamics of the systems.

biodiesel↗

Recent increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme methane fluxes driven by changes in climate and vegetation in boreal and temperate wetland ecosystems

Climate warming is expected to increase global methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wetland ecosystems. Although in situ eddy covariance (EC) measurements at ecosystem scales can potentially detect CH 4 flux changes, most EC systems have only a few years of data collected, so temporal trends in CH 4 remain uncertain. Here, we use established drivers to hindcast changes in CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) since the early 1980s. We trained a machine learning (ML) model on CH 4 flux measurements from 22 [methane-producing sites] in wetland, upland, and lake sites of the FLUXNET-CH 4 database with at least two full years of measurements across temperate and boreal biomes. The gradient boosting decision tree ML model then hindcasted daily FCH 4 over 1981-2018 using meteorological reanalysis data. We found that, mainly driven by rising temperature, half of the sites (n = 11) showed significant increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme FCH 4 , with increases in FCH 4 of ca. 10% or higher found in the fall from 1981–1989 to 2010–2018. The annual trends were driven by increases during summer and fall, particularly at high-CH 4 -emitting fen sites dominated by aerenchymatous plants. We also found that the distribution of days of extremely high FCH 4 (defined according to the 95th percentile of the daily FCH 4 values over a reference period) have become more frequent during the last four decades and currently account for 10–40% of the total seasonal fluxes. The share of extreme FCH 4 days in the total seasonal fluxes was greatest in winter for boreal/taiga sites and in spring for temperate sites, which highlights the increasing importance of the non-growing seasons in annual budgets. Our results shed light on the effects of climate warming on wetlands, which appears to be extending the CH 4 emission seasons and boosting extreme emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wind ramp events validation in NWP forecast models during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) using the Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M)

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a multi-agency field campaign held in the Columbia Gorge area (October 2015 - March 2017). The main goal of the project is to understand and improve the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in complex terrain, particularly beneficial for the wind energy industry. This region is well-known for its excellent wind resource. One of the biggest challenges for wind power production is the accurate forecasting of wind ramp events (large changes of generated power over short periods of time). Poor forecasting of the ramps requires large and sudden adjustments in conventional power generation, ultimately increasing the costs of power. A Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) was developed during the first WFIP experiment, held in the U.S. Great Plains (September 2011 - August 2012). The RT&M was designed to explicitly measure the skill of NWP models at forecasting wind ramp events. Here we apply the RT&M to 80-m (turbine hub-height) wind speeds measured by 19 sodars and 3 lidars, and to forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), 3-km, and from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST), 750-m horizontal grid spacing, models. The diurnal and seasonal distribution of ramp events are analyzed, finding a noticeable diurnal variability for spring and summer but less for fall and especially winter. Also, winter has fewer ramps compared to the other seasons. The model skill at forecasting ramp events, including the impact of the modification to the model physical parameterizations, was finally investigated.

Djalalova, Irina V.↗

Atmospheric Ozone Response to the Disrupted 2015-2016 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) - a quasi-periodic alternation between easterly and westerly zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere - is a main driver of inter-annual ozone variability in the stratosphere. During the late-2015 through 2016 time period, the QBO experienced a major disruption unlike any observed since wind measurements began in 1953. We examined the ozone response to this QBO disruption using profile ozone measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler and total column measurements from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) Merged Ozone Data Set (MOD). Positive anomalies in stratospheric equatorial O3 developed between 50 and 30 hPa in May-September of 2016, and negative ozone anomalies were observed in the subtropics of both hemispheres. As a consequence of this QBO disruption, extratropical total ozone values during the spring-summer 2016 were at or near seasonal record lows over the more than 40 years of the total ozone record, resulting in an increase of surface UV index during northern hemisphere summer. We found very consistent responses in all considered ozone observations in terms of time, amplitude and spatial patterns. We will show the ozone changes associated with this disrupted QBO throughout the winter and spring 2017.

Kramarova, N. A.↗

Transport Pathways for Asian Pollution Outflow Over the Pacific: Interannual and Seasonal Variations

The meteorological pathways contributing to Asian pollution outflow over the Pacific are examined with a global three-dimensional model analysis of CO observations from the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft mission (February-April 2001). The model is used also to place the TRACE-P observations in an interannual (1994-2001) and seasonal context. The major process driving Asian pollution outflow in spring is frontal lifting ahead of southeastward-moving cold fronts (the leading edge of cold surges) and transport in the boundary layer behind the cold fronts. Orographic lifting over central and eastern China combines with the cold fronts to promote the transport of Chinese pollution to the free troposphere. Outflow of seasonal biomass burning in Southeast Asia during spring takes place mostly by deep convection but also by northeastward transport and frontal lifting, mixing with the anthropogenic outflow. Boundary layer outflow over the western Pacific is largely devoid of biomass burning influence. European and African (biomass burning) plumes in Asian outflow during TRACE-P were weak (less than 60 ppbv and 20 ppbv CO, respectively) and were not detectable in the observations because of superposition of the much larger Asian pollution signal. Spring 2001 (La Nina) was characterized by unusually frequent cold surge events in the Asian Pacific rim and strong convection in Southeast Asia, leading to unusually strong boundary layer outflow of anthropogenic emissions and convective outflow of biomass burning emissions in the upper troposphere. The Asian outflow flux of CO to the Pacific is found to vary seasonally by a factor of 3-4 (maximum in March and minimum in summer). The March maximum results from frequent cold surge events and seasonal biomass burning emissions.

Liu, Hong-Yu↗

[Analysis of Multiplatform CO (Carbon Monoxide) Measurements During Trace-P Mission]

Carbon monoxide is considered mission critical (TRACE-P NRA) because it is one of the gases involved in controlling the oxidizing power of the atmosphere and, as a tracer gas, is valuable in interpreting mission data sets. Carbon monoxide exhibits interannual differences, suggesting relatively short-term imbalances in sources and sinks. Sources of CO are dominated by fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning, and the photochemical oxidation of CH4 and nonmethane hydrocarbons while reaction with OH is believed to be the major sink for atmospheric CO, with additional losses due to soil uptake. Uncertainties in the magnitude and distribution of both sources and sinks remain fairly large however, and additional data are required to refine the global budget. Seasonal changes and a northern hemispheric latitudinal gradient have been described for a variety of Pacific basin sites through long-term monitoring of surface background levels. Latitudinal variations have also recently been described at upper tropospheric altitudes over a multi-year period by. TRACE-P will provide an aircraft survey of CO over the northern Pacific in the northern spring when CO concentrations are at their seasonal maximum in the northern hemisphere (NH) and at their seasonal minimum in the southern hemisphere (SH). Previous GTE missions, Le., PEM West-B and PEM Tropics-B, ground-based, and satellite observations (MAPS, April 1994) give us a general picture of the distribution of CO over the northern Pacific during this season. Based on these measurements, background CO levels over remote ocean areas are anticipated to be in the range of 110 - 180 ppbv, while those closer to the Asian continent may rise as high as 600 ppbv. These measurements also reveal high spatial variability (both horizontal and vertical) as well as temporal variations in CO over the area planned for the TRACE-P mission. This variability is a result of multiple CO sources, the meteorological complexity of transport processes, and the photochemical aging of air masses. The influence of biomass burning in the southern Pacific should be relatively small since the mission coincides with the southern tropical wet season when agricultural burning is at its seasonal low. The proposed CO measurements taken during TRACE-P should therefore largely be a function of the impact of various NH sources, primarily Asian and predominantly fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning. These processes are also major sources of many other atmospheric pollutants, consequently making accurate and precise CO measurements is one of the highest TRACE-P priorities [TRACE-P NRA]. The TRACE-P mission emphasizes the dual objectives of assessing the magnitude of the transport of chemically and radiatively important gases such as CO from Asia to the western Pacific, and determining how emissions change and are modified during this transport.

Pougatchev, Nikita S.↗

Interannual consistency of migration phenology is season- and breeding region-specific in North American Golden Eagles

Abstract Interannual consistency (an indicator of the strength of adjustments) in migration phenology of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in North America is most strongly associated with the breeding region, the season, and with late-season temperature on breeding and wintering grounds. Consistency was greatest in boreal spring migration and the breeding regions of eastern Canada. Using multi-year GPS tracks of 83 adults breeding in 3 spatially distant regions (Alaska, northeast Canada, and southeast Canada), we quantified the interannual consistency of migration phenology and wintering latitude within and among individuals tracked across multiple years and the repeatability (r) by breeding regions and seasons. By comparing regions and seasons, we found that consistency was highest (r > 0.85) for boreal spring migration in eastern Canada while Alaska had the lowest value (r < 0.15). Because seasonal consistency of migration phenology was only detected in eastern Canada, we conclude that seasonal features are not a primary constraint. While regional differences in consistency were not related to differences in migratory distances, they could be the result of genetic or habitat differences. We also found that temperatures warmer than the decadal average at the region of departure delayed the start of boreal spring migration by ~10 days and advanced boreal autumn migration by ~20 days. These results suggest that warmer temperatures would reduce residence time on breeding grounds, contrary to expectations and trends found in other studies. Wide variations in migratory strategies across a species distribution can add to the list of challenges for conservation but may give migrants the capacity to acclimate to environmental changes.

Zoology↗

In situ measurements of NO and O3 in the lower stratosphere

Early results of an ongoing program to measure seasonal and geographic variations in lower stratosphere NO are reported. The data show the expected spring maximum and winter minimum for mid-latitudes. A possible seasonal variation in NO is indicated, and it may explain discrepancies between previous NO measurements. The spread of numbers obtained here from January to June tends to overlap all the NO measurements at approximately 21 km reported to date by other workers.

Savage, H. F.↗