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At least 271 records · Page 15

Global Simulation of Electron Cyclotron Harmonic Wave Instability in a Storm-Time Magnetosphere

Electron cyclotron harmonic (ECH) waves are electrostatic emissions between the ECHs and play a dominant role for precipitating energetic electrons in the magnetotail. Statistically, the ECH wave intensity is stronger at nightside and dawnside than at dayside and duskside. In this study, we, for the first time, simulate the global ECH wave evolution during a geomagnetic storm event using Ring current Atmosphere interactions Model with Self-Consistent Magnetic field (RAM-SCB) combined with a linear growth rate solver.We find that the simulation results are generally consistent with the statistical and real-time observations. The ECH wave instability is much stronger at nightside and dawnside, compared to the instability at dayside and duskside. Before a geomagnetic storm (quiet time), the unstable regions of the ECH waves lie beyond $5R_E$ with a weak instability level. During the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, the unstable regions can extend to a lower altitude $(3R_E)$ with a strong instability level. Finally, during the recovery phase, the unstable regions return to $5$ ~ $6R_E$. We also find that the inner boundary of unstable ECH wave regions is coincident with the plasmapause location during the whole geomagnetic storm event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Contribution of Electron Pressure to Ring Current and Ground Magnetic Depression Using RAM-SCB Simulations and Arase Observations During 7–8 November 2017 Magnetic Storm

Understanding the physical processes that control the dynamics of energetic particles in the inner magnetosphere is important for both space-borne and ground-based assets essential to the modern society. The storm time distribution of ring current particles in the inner magnetosphere depends strongly on their transport in the evolving electric and magnetic fields along with particle acceleration and loss. Here, we investigated the ring current particle variations using observations and simulations. We compared the ion (H + , He + , and O + ) and electron flux and plasma pressure variations from Arase observations with the self-consistent inner magnetosphere model: Ring current Atmosphere interactions Model with Self Consistent magnetic field (RAM-SCB) during the 7–8 November 2017 geomagnetic storm. We investigated the contribution of the different species (ions and electrons) to the magnetic field deformation observed at ground magnetic stations (09°–45° MLat) using RAM-SCB simulations. The results show that the ions are the major contributor with ~88% and electrons contribute ~12% to the total ring current pressure. It is also found that the electron contribution is non-negligible (~18%) to the ring current in dawn-side during the main phase of the storm. Thus, the electron contribution to the storm time ring current is important and should not be neglected.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

(abstract) Using GPS Measurements to Identify Global Ionospheric Storms in Near Real-Time

The solar wind interacts with the Earth's magnetosphere, eventually dissipating energy into the ionosphere and atmosphere. As a terminator, the ionosphere responds to magnetic storms, which is very important in understanding the energy coupling process between the Sun and the Earth and in forecasting space weather changes.The worldwide GPS network, for the first time, makes near real-time global ionospheric TEC measurements a possibility. Based on these measurements, global ionospheric TEC maps are generated with time resolution of from 5 minutes to hours. Using these maps, we can analyze the global evolution of ionospheric storms on temporal and spatial scales, which have been dificult to study before. We find that for certain types of storms (such as TID-driven), it is possible to identify them near onset and issue warning signals during the early stages. Main attention has been paid on northern hemispheric winter storms. Their common features and physical mechanisms are being investigated.

solar wind magnetospheres GPS ionosphere atmospher↗

Comparison of Dst Forecast Models for Intense Geomagnetic Storms

We have compared six disturbance storm time (Dst) forecast models using 63 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst <=100 nT) that occurred from 1998 to 2006. For comparison, we estimated linear correlation coefficients and RMS errors between the observed Dst data and the predicted Dst during the geomagnetic storm period as well as the difference of the value of minimum Dst (Delta Dst(sub min)) and the difference in the absolute value of Dst minimum time (Delta t(sub Dst)) between the observed and the predicted. As a result, we found that the model by Temerin and Li gives the best prediction for all parameters when all 63 events are considered. The model gives the average values: the linear correlation coefficient of 0.94, the RMS error of 14.8 nT, the Delta Dst(sub min) of 7.7 nT, and the absolute value of Delta t(sub Dst) of 1.5 hour. For further comparison, we classified the storm events into two groups according to the magnitude of Dst. We found that the model of Temerin and Lee is better than the other models for the events having 100 <= Dst < 200 nT, and three recent models (the model of Wang et al., the model of Temerin and Li, and the model of Boynton et al.) are better than the other three models for the events having Dst <= 200 nT.

Geomagnetic Storms↗

STORM: Scrape-off layer turbulence in tokamak fusion reactors

The scrape-off layer of a tokamak fusion reactor carries the plasma exhaust from the hot core plasma to the material surfaces of the reactor vessel. The heat loads imposed by the exhaust are a critical limit on the performance of fusion power plants. Turbulent transport of the plasma regulates the width of the scrape-off layer plasma and must be modelled to understand the intensity of these heat loads. STORM is a plasma turbulence code capable of simulating three dimensional turbulence across the full scrape-off layer of a tokamak fusion reactor, using a drift reduced, collisional fluid model. STORM uses mostly finite difference schemes, with a staggered grid in the direction parallel to the magnetic field. We describe the model, geometry and initialisation options used by STORM, as well as the numerical methods, which are implemented using the BOUT++ plasma simulation framework. BOUT++ has been enhanced alongside the development of STORM, providing better support for staggered grid methods. We summarise these enhancements, including a detailed explanation of the parallel derivative methods, which underwent a major update for version 4 of BOUT++.

BOUT++↗

Long-term effects of thinning and woody control on longleaf pine plantation development, understory abundance, and tree damage from an ice storm

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) plantations have been established across the southeastern United States as the first step in restoring the declining savanna ecosystem, yet their long-term stability and development to open canopied woodlands may depend on early density and vegetation management treatments. Commercial thinning (CT) was applied in 2012 (year 18) to a long-term study of longleaf pine community restoration at the Savannah River Site near Aiken, SC to increase abundance of herb species. Although precommercial thinning (PCT) and woody vegetation control increased herb species cover during the first five years of the study, measurements from years 17 to 22 indicated a continuing decline in their cover since year 9 despite application of CT in year 18. Herb species richness, however, increased from 21 to 43 species per 100 m2 area during the last six years of the study, likely a result of disturbances associated with CT and an ice storm in year 20. Application of PCT in 1994, when the plantations were 8–11 years old, reduced their susceptibility to stem bending and breakage from the ice storm, which occurred 20 years later in 2014. Measured 5 months before the storm, pine height: dbh ratio (HD) averaged 78 and 90 for trees growing with and without PCT, respectively, and stem breakage (% of trees) from the ice storm increased linearly (r2 = 0.53) with HD. Pine mortality from the combined effects of glaze ice and wind differed with (28%) versus without (45%) PCT, indicating that long-term stability of longleaf pine plantations depends on early density management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi‐Species Energy‐Banded Ions in the Ionosphere During the 21 January 2005 Magnetic Storm: Low‐Altitude Edge of the Warm Plasma Cloak

During the 21–22 January 2005 magnetic storm, the FAST satellite observed warm (< few keV) ions in discrete energy bands on the dayside at ∼3,000 km altitude for more than 6.5 hr. We suggest that the ionospheric energy-banded ions represent the low-altitude edge of the warm plasma cloak observed simultaneously by magnetospheric satellites. This is a clear example of the multi-species ion energy bands (10 eV to several keV) observed during strong magnetic storms by the FAST satellite, stretching from the diffuse auroral region to the plasmapause with lifetimes up to 12 hr. The close association of these energy-banded ions with magnetic storms, their broad latitudinal extent, and the presence of multiple ion species in the same energy band, rather than at the same velocity, indicate that this is a distinct phenomenon from other types of energy-banded ions. During the 21–22 January 2005 magnetic storm, the dayside ion energy band structures, centered at 10 eV (H + ), 40 eV (H + and He + ), and 160 eV (H + , He + , and O + ), were consistent with a “time-of-flight and velocity filter” formation process acting on a near-cusp, impulsive outflow of a <200 eV multi-species ion-source population, poleward and in the same hemisphere as FAST. Understanding the sources and dynamics of warm energy-banded ions and their linkage to the warm plasma cloak is important because during superstorms these ions are transported to L values as low as L ∼ 1.2 in the dawn sector, significantly altering the energetics of the mid-latitude ionosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating Extreme Storm Events in an Ensemble of High‐Resolution Projections

This study uses different downscaling techniques and reference observations to investigate the characteristics of extreme storm events over the conterminous United States in historical and a projected future scenario. While previous studies agree on the projected changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes, there is a lack of consensus regarding how their size will change in response to an increase in radiative forcing. Moreover, the influence of different downscaling techniques on their characteristics has not been thoroughly examined. This study employs an ensemble of high‐resolution projections derived from six CMIP6 GCMs, using dynamical, statistical and artificial intelligence based downscaling techniques and two reference observations. Overall, we find noticeable differences in the size, average depth, and total precipitation volume of these storms among the climate ensembles in the historical period. Despite these differences in the historical period, we find consistent future changes across various ensembles. We find a robust projected increase in storm size during Winter and Spring but a decrease in size during Summer in the East. Nevertheless, irrespective of changes in their size, extreme storms are projected to intensify across all the ensembles and seasons.

Rastogi, Deeksha [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming

Abstract Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A database of global storm surge reconstructions

Storm surges are among the deadliest coastal hazards and understanding how they have been affected by climate change and variability in the past is crucial to prepare for the future. However, tide gauge records are often too short to assess trends and perform robust statistical analyses. Here we use a data-driven modeling framework to simulate daily maximum surge values at 882 tide gauge locations across the globe. We use five different atmospheric reanalysis products for the storm surge reconstruction, the longest one going as far back as 1836. The data that we generate can be used, for example, for long-term trend analyses of the storm surge climate and identification of regions where changes in the intensity and/or frequency of storms surges have occurred in the past. It also provides a better basis for robust extreme value analysis, especially for tide gauges where observational records are short. The data are made available for public use through an interactive web-map as well as a public data repository.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Using Engineered-Synthetic Storms and a Physics-Based Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model

In this study, we design a statistical method to couple observations with a physics-based tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall model (TCR) and engineered-synthetic storms for assessing TC rainfall hazard. We first propose a bias-correction method to minimize the errors induced by TCR via matching the probability distribution of TCR-simulated historical TC rainfall with gauge observations. Then we assign occurrence probabilities to engineered-synthetic storms to reflect local climatology, through a resampling method that matches the probability distribution of a newly proposed storm parameter named rainfall potential (POT) in the synthetic dataset with that in the observation. POT is constructed to include several important storm parameters for TC rainfall such as TC intensity, duration, and distance and environmental humidity near landfall, and it is shown to be correlated with TCR-simulated rainfall. The proposed method has a satisfactory performance in reproducing the rainfall hazard curve in various locations in the continental United States; it is an improvement over the traditional joint probability method (JPM) for TC rainfall hazard assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convective-storm environments in subtropical South America from high-frequency soundings during RELAMPAGO-CACTI

During the RELAMPAGO-CACTI field experiments in 2018-19, an unprecedented number of balloon-borne soundings were collected in Argentina. Radiosondes were launched from both fixed and mobile platforms, yielding 2712 soundings during the period 15 October 2018-30 April 2019. Approximately 20% of these soundings were collected by highly mobile platforms, strategically positioned for each intensive observing period, and launching approximately once per hour. The combination of fixed and mobile soundings capture both the overall conditions characterizing the RELAMPAGO-CACTI campaign, as well as the detailed evolution of environments supporting the initiation and upscale growth of deep convective storms, including some that produced hazardous hail and heavy rainfall. Episodes of frequent convection were characterized by sufficient quantities of moisture and instability for deep convection, along with deep-layer vertical wind shear supportive of organized or rotating storms. Eleven soundings showed most-unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE) exceeding 6000 J kg-1, comparable to the extreme instability observed in other parts of the world with intense deep convection. Parameters used to diagnose severe-storm potential showed that conditions were often favorable for supercells and severe hail, but not for tornadoes, primarily owing to insufficient low-level wind shear. High-frequency soundings also revealed the structure and evolution of the boundary layer leading up to convection initiation, convectively generated cold pools, the South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ), and elevated nocturnal convection. This sounding dataset will enable improved understanding and prediction of convective storms and their surroundings in subtropical South America, as well as comparisons with other heavily studied regions such as the central United States that have not previously been possible.

Schumacher, Russ S.↗

Geomagnetic storm particles in the high-latitude magnetotail.

Nearly monoenergetic positive ions flowing outward along magnetic-field lines in the high-latitude magnetotail, outside the plasma sheet, have been observed with Vela satellites. These ions, probably mainly protons, are detected only during geomagnetic storms. The ?storm particles' have average energies per charge ranging from about 0.3 to 3 kV, but at any instant the energy distribution is quite narrow, sometimes less than 10%. Their angular distribution is usually narrow, sometimes about 6 deg. Particles with storm-particle characteristics are not observed in the plasma sheet. Possible sources of the storm particles are considered, including the solar wind, magnetosheath, polar cusps, polar wind, or ionosphere, plasma sheet, solar neutral hydrogen streams, reconnection transfer of plasma into the magnetotail from the polar cusps, polar wind, or polar ionosphere, and parallel electric-field acceleration of the polar wind or ionosphere ions along the polar-cap magnetic-field lines. Of these possibilities, the electric-field acceleration is favored.

Bame, S. J.↗

The responses of the thermosphere due to a geomagnetic storm: A MHD model

A magnetohydrodynamics theory was used to study the dynamic response of the neutral atmosphere to a geomagnetic storm. A full set of magnetohydrodynamic equations appropriate for the present problem is derived and their various orders of approximation are discussed in some detail. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of this theoretical model, the May 1967 geomagnetic storm data were used in the resulting set of nonlinear, time dependent, partial differential magnetohydrodynamic equations to calculate variations of the thermosphere due to the storm. The numerical results are presented for wind speeds, electric field strength, and amount of joule heating at a constant altitude for the data recorded. Data show that the strongest thermospheric responses are at the polar region becoming weaker in the equatorial region. This may lead to the speculation that a thermospheric wave is generated in the polar region due to the geomagnetic storm which propagates towards the equator.

Wu, S. T.↗

Mars - Clearing of the 1971 dust storm

A semiquantitative analysis of clearing in the 1971 great dust storm on Mars is presented as a function of time and altitude, using Mariner 9 orange- and visual-light photos. Steady settling of dust approximately accounts for the decline of the storm after Dec. 22, 1971. Continuous settling cannot be invoked prior to that date; injection of dust into the atmosphere, i.e., a storm resurgence, occurred in mid-December 1971. Theoretical models of optical depth vs time are developed for various distributions of particles in the atmosphere. By interpreting settling in terms of Stokes' law, estimates of the maximum radii of dust particles throughout the atmosphere have been obtained. Models which best account for the dust-storm decline indicate particles less than 5 microns in diameter high in the atmosphere, with a concentration of larger particles near the ground in the lowest parts of Mars.

Hartmann, W. K.↗

Plasmaspheric hiss intensity variations during magnetic storms

The storm time intensity variations of ELF electromagnetic emissions have been studied by using the Ogo 6 search coil magnetometer. Low-latitude signals exhibit a sharp low-frequency cutoff and are identified as plasmaspheric hiss. Such waves show pronounced intensification during the recovery phase of magnetic storms but remain close to background levels during the storm main phase. This behavior is consistent with cyclotron resonant generation within the plasmasphere as the latter expands into the intensified belt of outer zone electrons during the storm recovery.

Smith, E. J.↗

Solar radio continuum storms

Radio noise continuum emission observed in metric and decametric wave frequencies is discussed. The radio noise is associated with actively varying sunspot groups accompanied by the S-component of microwave radio emissions. It is shown that the S-component emission in microwave frequencies generally occurs several days before the emission of the noise continuum storms of lower frequencies. It is likely that energetic electrons, 10 to 100 Kev, accelerated in association with the variation of sunspot magnetic fields, are the sources of the radio emissions. A model is considered to explain the relation of burst storms on radio noise. An analysis of the role of energetic electrons on the emissions of both noise continuum and type III burst storms is presented. It is shown that instabilities associated with the electrons and their relation to their own stabilizing effects are important in interpreting both of these storms.

Source record↗

The 1973 dust storm on Mars: Maps from hourly photographs

The hourly progress of the 1973 major Martian storm was mapped using photographic images from the International Planetary Patrol. Two series of 20 daily maps show the semi-hourly positions of the storm brightenings in red light and blue light. The maps indicate that the 1973 storm had many similarities to the 1971 storm.

Martin, L. J.↗