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At least 271 records · Page 15

Middle and high latitude Southern Hemispheric oscillations on the 35-60 day time scale

The low-frequency geopotential height fluctuations in the Southern Hemisphere were examined on the basis of one-point correlation maps. Results indicate that the 35-60 day fluctuations in the Southern-Hemisphere geopotential heights exhibit wavetrainlike characteristics. Correlations between a midlatitude reference point and tropical microwave temperature data were found to be weak, suggesting that the midlatitude wavetrain is not strongly coupled to the Madden and Julian (1971) 40-50 day oscillation.

Graves, Charles E.↗

Physical properties and evolutionary time scales of disks around solar-type and intermediate mass stars

Recent observations of circumstellar disks and their evolutionary timescales are reviewed. It is concluded that disks appear to be a natural outcome of the star-formation process. The disks surrounding young stars initially are massive, with optically thick structures comprised of gas and micron-sized grains. Disk masses are found to range from 0.01 to 0.2 solar masses for solar-type PMS stars, and from 0.01 to 6 solar masses for young, intermediate mass stars. Massive, optically thick accretion disks have accretion rates between 10 exp -8 and 10 exp -6 solar masses/yr for solar type PMS stars and between 10 exp -6 and 10 exp -4 solar masses/yr for intermediate stars. The results suggest that a significant fraction of the mass comprising the star may have passed through a circumstellar accretion disk.

Strom, Stephen E.↗

GCM Studies on the Interactions Between Photosynthesis and Climate at Diurnal to Decadal Time Scales

Transpiration, a major component of total evaporation from vegetated surfaces, is an unavoidable consequence of photosynthetic carbon fixation. Because of limiting soil moisture and competition for solar radiation plants invest most of their fixed carbon into structural and hydraulic functions (roots and stems) and solar radiation absorption (leaves). These investments permit individuals to overshadow competitors and provide for transport of water from the soil to the leaves where photosynthesis and transpiration occur. Often low soil moisture or high evaporative demand limit the supply of water to leaves reducing photosynthesis and thus transpiration. The absorption of solar radiation for photosynthesis and dissipation of this energy via radiation, heat, mass and momentum fluxes represents the link between photosynthesis and climate. Recognition of these relationships has led to the development of hydro/energy balance models that are based on the physiological ecology of photosynthesis. We discuss an approach to study vegetation-climate interactions using photosynthesis-centric models embedded in a GCM. The rate at which a vegetated area transpires and photosynthesizes is determined by the physiological state of the vegetation, its amount and its type. The latter two are specified from global satellite data collected since 1982. Climate simulations have been carried out to study how this simulated climate system responds to changes in radiative forcing, physiological capacity, atmospheric CO2, vegetation type and variable vegetation cover observed from satellites during the 1980's. Results from these studies reveal significant feedbacks between the vegetation activity and climate. For example, vegetation cover and physiological activity increases cause the total latent heat flux and precipitation to increase while mean and maximum air temperatures decrease. The reverse occurs if cover or activity'decreases. In general climate response of a particular region was dominated by local processes but we also find evidence that plausible climate-vegetation scenarios lead to changes in global atmospheric circulation and strong non-local influences in some cases.

Collatz, G. James↗

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian Summer Monsoons on the Intraseasonal Time Scale Based on 10 AMIP2 Model Runs

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian summer monsoons is examined using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, and 100 two-year simulations with ten different Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). We focus on the intraseasonal variations of the south Asian summer monsoon associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows a clear coupling between SST anomalies and upper level velocity potential anomalies associated with the MJO. We analyze several MJO events that developed during the 1997 and 1998 focusing of the coupling with the SST. The same analysis is carried out for the model simulations. Remarkably, the ensemble mean of the two-year AGCM simulations show a signature of the observed MJO events. The ensemble mean simulated MJO events are approximately in phase with the observed events, although they are weaker, the period of oscillation is somewhat longer, and their onset is delayed by about ten days compared with the observations. Details of the analysis and comparisons among the ten AMIP2 (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) models will be presented in the conference.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

Are US Great Plains Droughts Predictable on Seasonal and Longer Time Scales?

The United States has experienced numerous episodes of unusually dry conditions lasting anywhere from months to several years. In this talk, I will examine the predictability of such episodes and the physical mechanisms controlling the variability of the summer climate of the continental United States. The analysis is based on ensembles of multi-year simulations and seasonal hindcasts generated with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) General Circulation Model.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Are Droughts in the United States Great Plains Predictable on Seasonal and Longer Time Scales?

The United States Great Plains has experienced numerous episodes of unusually dry conditions lasting anywhere from months to several years, In this presentation, we will examine the predictability of such episodes and the physical mechanisms controlling the variability of the summer climate of the continental United States. The analysis is based on ensembles of multi-year simulations and seasonal hindcasts generated with the NASA Seasonal to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) General Circulation Model.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

Role of Satellite Rainfall Information in Improving Understanding of the Dynamical Link Between the Tropics and Extratropics Prospects of Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Sub-Seasonal Time Scales

The tropics and extratropics are two dynamically distinct regimes. The coupling between these two regimes often defies simple analytical treatment. Progress in understanding of the dynamical interaction between the tropics and extratropics relies on better observational descriptions to guide theoretical development. However, global analyses currently contain significant errors in primary hydrological variables such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and clouds, especially in the tropics. Tropical analyses have been shown to be sensitive to parameterized precipitation processes, which are less than perfect, leading to order-one discrepancies between estimates produced by different data assimilation systems. One strategy for improvement is to assimilate rainfall observations to constrain the analysis and reduce uncertainties in variables physically linked to precipitation. At the Data Assimilation Office at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we have been exploring the use of tropical rain rates derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments in global data assimilation. Results show that assimilating these data improves not only rainfall and moisture fields but also related climate parameters such as clouds and radiation, as well as the large-scale circulation and short-range forecasts. These studies suggest that assimilation of microwave rainfall observations from space has the potential to significantly improve the quality of 4-D assimilated datasets for climate investigations (Hou et al. 2001). In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007. Continued improvements in assimilation methodology, rainfall error estimates, and model parameterizations are needed to ensure that we derive maximum benefits from these observations.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Collaborative Research: Atlantic Ocean Tropical/Subtropical Processes from Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales: Model/Data, Model/Model Comparison and Model/Data Synthesis Through Assimilation

The effort of this first year of research has been focused on the assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetric data into a primitive equation model of the Atlantic tropical/subtropical circulation. A reduced-rank, stationary Kalman filter has been constructed to assimilate the altimetric sea surface height anomaly (SHA) into the model. The goal is to assess how the inter-hemispheric transports between the Atlantic subtropics and tropics are affected by the assimilation and how the subsurface thermocline structure , and its variability ,is dynamically constrained by the SHA. The model is a reduced-gravity primitive equation GCM of the upper Atlantic Ocean between 30 S and 30 N. The assimilation scheme is an approximation to the extended Kalman filter in which the error covariances of the state estimates are calculated only in a reduced- dimension subspace. The subspace is defined by the leading empirical orthogonal functions calculated from an unconstrained model calculation. Both an identical twin experiment using simulated SHA observations and assimilation of the real TOPEX data were performed. Results from the twin experiments demonstrate the ability of the method to constrain the ocean circulation and the subsurface temperature structure. The impact on the subsurface temperature structure of TOPEX assimilation was assessed using data from expandable bathythermographs. This showed a substantial improvement in the estimated temperature variability only within 13 degrees in latitude around the equator. The impact of TOPEX SHA assimilation on zonally integrated meridional transport across different latitudes was also estimated. Again within 13 degrees from the equator both the mean amplitude and interannual variability of the surface and subsurface transports were significantly enhanced, while the transports were insensitive to the assimilation in the subtropics.

Malannotte-Rizzoli, Paola↗

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

The following summarizes the most important, results of our research: (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability; (2) Demonstration of an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU)) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000); (3) Identification of a possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations; (4) Exploration of natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model; (5) Presentation of a review of the sun's coronal influence on the terrestrial space environment; (6) Quantification of stellar variability as an influence on the analysis of periodic radial velocities that imply the presence of a planetary companion.

Baliunas, Sallie L.↗

Short Time Scale Evolution of Microbiolites in Rapidly Receding Altiplanic Lakes: Learning How to Recognize Changing Signatures of Life

As part of the exploration of high altitude lakes as analogs to Martian paleolakes environment, we are investigating a remarkably large and diverse field of lacustrine stromatolites located at 4,365m in the Bolivian Altiplano (22 deg 47 00 min S and 67 deg 47.00 min W).The field is composed of both early Holocene fossil structures located on paleoshorelines and present-day active cyanobacterial communities on the shore and at the bottom of the current Laguna Blanca and Verde. Its physical environment, broad diversity of morphologies, and their associated spatial heterogeneity, origin, and scale offer a unique opportunity to explore microbiolites in conditions reminiscent of early Earth and Mars. At this altitude and latitude, UV radiation levels are enhanced (40% higher than sea level) and harmful to microorganisms living in shallow waters which provide only minimal protection from UV. Similar conditions prevailed on early Earth when the ozone layer had yet to be formed in the atmosphere. Compared to those studied at sea levels, these stromatolites could yield new insights about the earliest terrestrial forms of life. Moreover, the combination of physical and geological environment of this site is exceptionally analogous to conditions believed to be prevalent on Mars at the end of the Noachian (3.5 Ga ago), allowing to test the potential for forming stromatolites in martian paleolakes and learn how to identify their fossil record remotely. Our overarching goal is to generate new astrobiological information on high-altitude stromatolites as clues to early biospheres with implications for Earth and Mars. Our two central objectives are: (1) characterize the biological, geological, and mineralogical features and significance of this field, and to identify geo-signatures such as morphology, geology, chronostratigraphy, mineralogy and biosignatures, and (2) to facilitate remote-sensing and ground robotic detection capabilities for future astrobiological missions to Mars.

Cabrol, N. A.↗

Modeling and Observational Framework for Diagnosing Local Land-Atmosphere Coupling on Diurnal Time Scales

Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Further, uncoupled systems or experiments (e.g., the Project for Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes, PILPS) may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during field experiments in the U. S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to the Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. Within this framework, the coupling established by each pairing of the available PBL schemes in WRF with the LSMs in LIS is evaluated in terms of the diurnal temperature and humidity evolution in the mixed layer. The co-evolution of these variables and the convective PBL is sensitive to and, in fact, integrative of the dominant processes that govern the PBL budget, which are synthesized through the use of mixing diagrams. Results show how the sensitivity of land-atmosphere interactions to the specific choice of PBL scheme and LSM varies across surface moisture regimes and can be quantified and evaluated against observations. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which will serve as a testbed for future experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗