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DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Optimization Workflow Status Update

Economically optimal and safe operation of integrated energy systems (IES) requires optimization at many different time scales. A real-time optimization (RTO) workflow will attempt to maximize revenue and minimize operational costs on a time scale of minutes to hours. Such a workflow requires the use of a digital twin (DT), which is a virtual representation of a physical system. The DT is updated using real-time data from the physical system, and serves as a model in an optimization framework. The optimization results are then sent back to the physical system to complete the loop. This report details the progress made in developing building blocks for a DT/RTO framework. The Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) platform within the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite can perform many of the tasks required for building a DT and performing RTO. The first item of this report details RAVEN enhancements that enable RAVEN workflows to be run in various environments. Data communication between the physical system and its DT is essential for successful RTO. This includes preprocessing real-time data, loading data into a data warehouse, and querying the stored data. The second section of this report describes the progress made in implementing an adapter in Python in order for Deep Lynx to handle the data communication. Typical dispatch optimization frameworks are built on linear programming (LP). The prototype RTO workflow developed in this report uses an LP problem as a part of a receding-horizon- or economic model predictive control (EMPC) based optimization. The third section of this report details the framework of an RTO workflow in which the system consists of a simple electrical storage device. A DT can be built from a reduced-order model (ROM). Integrating a ROM into a typical LP optimization framework has been challenging because most optimization packages require the user to write algebraic expressions for the system model. The final section of this report shows how an externally built RAVEN ROM can be integrated in an RTO framework by using the Python package Pyomo. This demonstrates the RTO workflow capability from a software-only perspective and is an important step in demonstrating the capability to implement an RTO workflow for a physical system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

ClimGen: Learning the Forcing-Response Relationship in Climate System

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is emerging as a potential geoengineering strategy to address the anthropogenic impact on climate, but its effective implementation requires an iterative and large ensemble of highly accurate and efficient climate projections. Traditional climate projections rely on executing computationally demanding and time-consuming numerical climate models. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) aim to enhance these approaches by emulating traditional methods. In this work, we propose a novel framework for directly learning the relationship between solar radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere and the corresponding surface temperature response. To evaluate the feasibility of this direct ML-based projection, we developed a dataset using an intermediate complexity model, incorporating a comprehensive suite of different forcing patterns and evaluation metrics to rigorously assess the ML model’s performance. We introduce a Conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (cDDPM) for this task, which demonstrates encouraging skill in representing climate statistics under previously unseen forcing patterns. This approach provides a promising pathway for direct climate projections by accurately learning the forcing-response relationship, with a wide range of applications in impact mitigation, emissions policy design, and SRM strategies.

Chen, Tse-Chun [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)] (ORCID:↗

DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Waveform Estimation at the Fundamental Quantum Limit

Although measuring the deterministic waveform of a weak classical force is a well-studied problem, estimating a random waveform, such as the spectral density of a stochastic signal field, is much less well understood despite it being a widespread task at the frontier of experimental physics. State-of-the-art precision sensors of random forces must account for the underlying quantum nature of the measurement but the optimal quantum protocol for interrogating such linear sensors is not known. We derive the fundamental precision limit: the extended-channel quantum Cramér-Rao bound. In the experimentally relevant regime in which losses dominate, we prove that non-Gaussian-state preparation and measurement are required to achieve this fundamental limit and we determine numerically the optimal non-Gaussian protocol. We discuss how this scheme could accelerate searches for signatures of quantum gravity, stochastic gravitational waves, and axionic dark matter.

Axions↗

DOE OSTI2018

Sensing and Sampling of Trace Contaminations by a Dexterous Hexrotor UAV at Nuclear Facilities - 18600

Safe and efficient cleanups are a priority for decontamination and decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The contaminations of byproducts and wastes in such nuclear facilities pose a serious problems while decommissioning, to both the operators and public. Sensing these contaminations and cleaning them is an essential part of the safety procedures. The contaminations might range from low-energy to high-energy byproducts. Sensing these byproducts would require contact based or non-contact based sensing, based on its energy levels. Byproducts such as americium, are low-energy which makes it difficult to sense and sample without contact. Therefore, the workers need to physically swab the surfaces to collect the samples of these contaminations. These tasks pose a great danger for the safety of the human workers which includes the risk to reach greater heights, exposure to the radiation and sampling the entire building. A robotic solution is much more desirable in these cases, where the worker can safely handle the contaminations from a safe area. Use of robotic technologies inside these hazardous environments ensures the safety and enhances the performance. The more suitable robotic solution for reaching great heights and covering large areas of nuclear facilities, are aerial vehicles. Multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) are chosen for their ability to hover at a position and also fly around in confined spaces. Quadrotors are a common choice of multi-rotor UAVs both research and industry because of its ease to fly and commercial availability. For the applications during the cleanups we need the UAV to not only hover and fly in confined spaces, but also interact with the physical world. Despite of quadrotor's advantages, they are not a best suit as they can't interact with the physical world. The tasks involving physical interactions would require the UAV to apply arbitrary forces and torques in all six degrees of freedom (DOF). As quadrotors are under-actuated and non-holonomic in motion, they cannot exert all the required forces. At Collaborative Robotics Lab, Purdue University, we developed a novel multi-rotor UAV solution, Dexterous Hexrotor, which can exert arbitrary forces and torques in all six DOF, independently and instantaneously. This enables the UAV platform to quickly respond to the external disturbances and precisely hold its position during the mission. The Dexterous Hexrotor serves as a robotic tool for the workers to perform sensing and sampling during the cleanups. Workers can operate Dexterous Hexrotor manually and/or semi-autonomously with human intervention. Manual control requires the worker to fly the Dexterous Hexrotor using a remote control. So the workers should possess knowledge on flying the UAV and to perform physical interaction. A semiautonomous Dexterous Hexrotor requires human input to some extent and requires very less knowledge of flying. The autonomy is designed to operate in flight mode and sampling mode. In flight mode, Dexterous Hexrotor takes off from a 'safe' area, reaches the desired altitude, and fly autonomously towards a sampling point. This sampling point is the target position specified on the 2D reference map. This mode also includes navigation towards the sampling point, avoiding the obstacles in the constrained environment. After reaching a stopping point, Dexterous Hexrotor waits for the human input for a target location to swab and collect samples. The Dexterous Hexrotor is now in sampling mode and waits for the human input. The human operator selects the swabbing location through the live streaming video from onboard camera. Through visual servoing, aided by the map, the UAV will move closer towards the target position. It then transitions to the impact control scheme to perform physical interaction with the wall and collects samples. Once the sample is collected, it autonomously returns back to the takeoff position in 'safe' area for the analysis by mass spectrometry. In this paper, we majorly focus on the physical interaction strategy and the required components which enables the autonomy. Decommissioning of nuclear facilities requires decontamination inside the entire buildings. Decontamination of nuclear facilities involves sensing and sampling the huge buildings, long shafts, etc. Sampling the entire facility is not possible due to the limitation in Dexterous Hexrotor's flight time. But this can be achieved by using a swarm of Dexterous Hexrotors to cover larger areas. The onboard robotic arm can be designed based on the applications such as cleaning, applying sealants, etc. The modularity of the design allows us to switch components as per the requirements of the task. These kind of robotic solutions functioning as tools for the workers, aims to make the work environment safer and playful. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

matsim-agents v1.0

matsim-agents is a multi-agent AI framework for atomistic materials simulation and discovery. It orchestrates large language models (LLMs), machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs), and DFT codes into a single agentic loop running on laptops and DOE leadership-class supercomputers. MULTI-AGENT ORCHESTRATION A LangGraph state machine with three nodes: a Planner that converts a natural-language research objective into structured tasks; an Executor that dispatches atomistic tools and loops until the queue is empty; and an Analyst that summarizes results into a human-readable report. State is checkpointed after every step and human-in-the-loop gates can be inserted at any edge. HYPOTHESIS-DRIVEN DISCOVERY CHAT An interactive REPL (matsim-agents chat) that couples LLM dialogue with atomistic simulation. Chemical formulas are automatically detected in conversation turns and trigger a full crystal-phase exploration: structure generation → relaxation → stability scoring → result injection back into the conversation, creating a closed hypothesis-refinement loop. CRYSTAL PHASE ENUMERATION Given a composition, the phase explorer enumerates prototypes by stoichiometry: elemental (fcc/bcc/hcp/sc/diamond), binary 1:1 (rocksalt/CsCl/zincblende/ wurtzite/fluorite/rutile), ternary 1:1:3 (cubic perovskite), ternary 1:2:4 (perovskite + spinel), quaternary 1:1:2:6 (Fm-3m double perovskite). 2-D prototypes (graphene, h-BN, MoS2 2H/1T) and multilayer stacking are also supported via --include-2d and --num-layers. SUPERCELL GENERATION AND SITE DECORATION Auto-tiling to a minimum atom count (--min-atoms), explicit NxNxN tiling (--supercell), symmetry-distinct site decorations (--n-orderings), and isotropic lattice-scale sweeps (--lattice-scales) for volume bracketing. MLFF RELAXATION AND STABILITY SCORING HydraGNN (multi-headed GNN) drives structure relaxation via ASE with FIRE, BFGS, or BFGSLineSearch. Stability output: delta-E/atom ranking across phases and a max-residual-force dynamical-stability proxy. Other MLIPs (MACE, NequIP, Orb) can be plugged in through the same interface. DFT BACKENDS Quantum ESPRESSO pw.x and VASP 6.6 are first-class labellers. Both have validated GPU builds and SLURM/PBS launchers for three DOE platforms: Frontier (AMD MI250X, ROCm), Aurora (Intel PVC, oneAPI), Perlmutter (NVIDIA A100, CUDA). QE produces ~100 binaries (pw.x, ph.x, epw.x, ...). VASP supports scf, relax, vc-relax, and vc-relax-shape run types. ACTIVE-LEARNING LOOP matsim-agents al run CONFIG.yaml drives an iterative HydraGNN-DFT loop: MD generates candidates → ensemble/MC-dropout uncertainty selects the most informative → DFT labels them in parallel inside one allocation → dataset grows → HydraGNN retrains → repeat. DFT backend is a single YAML toggle (dft.backend: vasp | qe). LLM-generated seed structures are supported (no curated POSCAR library needed). Config uses ${VAR}, ${VAR:-default}, ${VAR:?msg} shell-style substitution for cross-user/cross-site portability. LLM BACKENDS Ollama (local, default), vLLM (HPC multi-GPU serving), OpenAI, Anthropic, HuggingFace Transformers+Accelerate. Selected at runtime via flag or env var with no code changes. HPC PORTABILITY Same Python entry points run on Frontier (ROCm 7.2), Aurora (oneAPI), and Perlmutter (CUDA 12). DFT and ML stacks are never co-loaded in the same shell; they couple through the scheduler and filesystem. Advanced multi-node launchers (serve, discovery-chat, single-relaxation, active-learning, QE warm-start) are provided for all three platforms. CODABENCH COMPETITION BUNDLE A self-contained benchmark: 159 atomistic test structures across 11 material classes, 5 tasks (formation energy, forces, ML relaxation, AI-DFT relaxation, phase stability ranking), public/private leaderboard split (30/70), and four ready-to-run baselines: MACE-MP-0, HydraGNN, UMA, AllScAIP.

Lupo Pasini, Massimiliano [Oak Ridge National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2020

Flat-histogram extrapolation as a useful tool in the age of big data

In this work, we review recent work by the authors to revisit the concept of extrapolating thermodynamic properties of classical systems using statistical mechanical principles. Specifically, we discuss how the combination of these principles with biased sampling techniques enables the prediction of free energy landscapes and other detailed information, such as structural properties, of the system in question. Remarkably accurate estimates of physical properties across a broad range of conditions have been achieved using this approach, greatly reducing the number of simulations needed to explore a given system's behaviour. While approximate, these extrapolations significantly amplify the amount of reasonably accurate information that can be extracted from simulations enabling a small set of them to feed data-intensive regression algorithms such as neural networks. Thus, this extrapolation methodology represents a useful tool for performing tasks such as high-throughput screening of physical properties, optimising force field parameters, exploring equilibrium phase behaviour, and enabling theory-guided data science for these systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Charge Condensation and Lattice Coupling Drives Stripe Formation in Nickelates

Revealing the predominant driving force behind symmetry breaking in correlated materials is sometimes a formidable task due to the intertwined nature of different degrees of freedom. This is the case for La 2–x Sr x NiO 4+δ , in which coupled incommensurate charge and spin stripes form at low temperatures. Here, we use resonant x-ray photon correlation spectroscopy to study the temporal stability and domain memory of the charge and spin stripes in La 2–x Sr x NiO 4+δ . Although spin stripes are more spatially correlated, charge stripes maintain a better temporal stability against temperature change. More intriguingly, charge order shows robust domain memory with thermal cycling up to 250 K, far above the ordering temperature. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the pinning of charge stripes to the lattice and that charge condensation is the predominant factor in the formation of stripe orders in nickelates.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2016

Bayesian calibration of coarse-grained forces: Efficiently addressing transferability

Generating and calibrating forces that are transferable across a range of state-points remains a challenging task in coarse-grained (CG) molecular dynamics. In this work, we present a coarse-graining workflow, inspired by ideas from uncertainty quantification and numerical analysis, to address this problem. The key idea behind our approach is to introduce a Bayesian correction algorithm that uses functional derivatives of CG simulations to rapidly and inexpensively recalibrate initial estimates f{sub 0} of forces anchored by standard methods such as force-matching. Taking density-temperature relationships as a running example, we demonstrate that this algorithm, in concert with various interpolation schemes, can be used to efficiently compute physically reasonable force curves on a fine grid of state-points. Importantly, we show that our workflow is robust to several choices available to the modeler, including the interpolation schemes and tools used to construct f{sub 0}. In a related vein, we also demonstrate that our approach can speed up coarse-graining by reducing the number of atomistic simulations needed as inputs to standard methods for generating CG forces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2016

INTEGRATION OF PARTICLE-GAS SYSTEMS WITH STIFF MUTUAL DRAG INTERACTION

Numerical simulation of numerous mm/cm-sized particles embedded in a gaseous disk has become an important tool in the study of planet formation and in understanding the dust distribution in observed protoplanetary disks. However, the mutual drag force between the gas and the particles can become so stiff—particularly because of small particles and/or strong local solid concentration—that an explicit integration of this system is computationally formidable. In this work, we consider the integration of the mutual drag force in a system of Eulerian gas and Lagrangian solid particles. Despite the entanglement between the gas and the particles under the particle-mesh construct, we are able to devise a numerical algorithm that effectively decomposes the globally coupled system of equations for the mutual drag force, and makes it possible to integrate this system on a cell-by-cell basis, which considerably reduces the computational task required. We use an analytical solution for the temporal evolution of each cell to relieve the time-step constraint posed by the mutual drag force, as well as to achieve the highest degree of accuracy. To validate our algorithm, we use an extensive suite of benchmarks with known solutions in one, two, and three dimensions, including the linear growth and the nonlinear saturation of the streaming instability. We demonstrate numerical convergence and satisfactory consistency in all cases. Our algorithm can, for example, be applied to model the evolution of the streaming instability with mm/cm-sized pebbles at high mass loading, which has important consequences for the formation scenarios of planetesimals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Mechanochemical coupling and bi-phasic force-velocity dependence in the ultra-fast ring ATPase SpoIIIE

Multi-subunit ring-shaped ATPases are molecular motors that harness chemical free energy to perform vital mechanical tasks such as polypeptide translocation, DNA unwinding, and chromosome segregation. Previously we reported the intersubunit coordination and stepping behavior of the hexameric ring-shaped ATPase SpoIIIE (Liu et al., 2015). Here we use optical tweezers to characterize the motor’s mechanochemistry. Analysis of the motor response to external force at various nucleotide concentrations identifies phosphate release as the likely force-generating step. Analysis of SpoIIIE pausing indicates that pauses are off-pathway events. Characterization of SpoIIIE slipping behavior reveals that individual motor subunits engage DNA upon ATP binding. Furthermore, we find that SpoIIIE’s velocity exhibits an intriguing bi-phasic dependence on force. We hypothesize that this behavior is an adaptation of ultra-fast motors tasked with translocating DNA from which they must also remove DNA-bound protein roadblocks. Based on these results, we formulate a comprehensive mechanochemical model for SpoIIIE.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Biosafety Level 3 Recon Training

The Biosafety Level 3 Recon training is a 3D virtual tool developed for the Counter WMD Analysis Cell (CWAC) and the Asymmetric Warfare Group (AWG) by the Application Modeling and Development Team within the NEN-3 International Threat Reduction Group. The training simulates a situation where friendly forces have secured from hostile forces a suspected bioweapons development laboratory. The trainee is a squad member tasked to investigate the facility, locate laboratories within the facility, and identify hazards to entrants and the surrounding area. Before beginning the 3D simulation, the trainee must select the appropriate MOPP level for entering the facility. The items in the simulation, including inside and outside the bioweapon facility, are items that are commonly used by scientists in Biosafety Level (BSL) laboratories. Each item has clickable red tags that, when activated, give the trainee a brief description of the item and a controllable turn-around view. The descriptions also contain information about potential hazards the item can present. Trainees must find all tagged items in order to complete the simulation, but can also reference descriptions and turn-around view of the items in a glossary menu. Training is intended to familiarize individuals whom have little or no biology or chemistry background with technical equipment used in BSL laboratories. The revised edition of this simulation (Biosafety Level 3 Virtual Lab) changes the trainee into a investigator instead of a military combatant. Many doors now require a virtual badge swipe to open. Airlock doors may come in sets such that the open door must be closed before the next door in the set can be opened. A user interface was added so that the instructor can edit the information about the items (the brief descriptions mentioned above) using the simulation software instead of the previous method of manually entering the material in xml settings files. Facility labels, such as "No Parking" and "Men's room", were changed from Korean, into English. No other changes were made.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Teleoperation for Nuclear Applications Considering Communication Delay and Uncertainty - 18205

Teleoperation in remote environment is of great interest in robotics. Advancement in communication technology has enabled safe execution of complex and life threatening tasks in network environment in teleoperation. Using bilateral teleoperation, the operator receives force feedback from the slave which provides an interactive feel of forces and smoother coordination. However, time delay across the communication link in sending the command signal from the master to the slave may cause instability to the system. In this research, we use the continuous pole placement method to address the time delay problem in teleoperation. Compared to approximation based and prediction based methods, this method shows improved robustness. Simulations and experiments show a stable and well synchronized control. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

APHiD: Hierarchical Task Placement to Enable a Tapered Fat Tree Topology for Lower Power and Cost in HPC Networks

The power and procurement cost of bandwidth in system-wide networks has forced a steady drop in the byte/flop ratio. This trend of computation becoming faster relative to the network is expected to hold. In this paper, we explore how cost-oriented task placement enables reducing the cost of system-wide networks by enabling high performance even on tapered topologies where more bandwidth is provisioned at lower levels. We describe APHiD, an efficient hierarchical placement algorithm that uses new techniques to improve the quality of heuristic solutions and reduces the demand on high-level, expensive bandwidth in hierarchical topologies. We apply APHiD to a tapered fat-tree, demonstrating that APHiD maintains application scalability even for severely tapered network configurations. Using simulation, we show that for tapered networks APHiD improves performance by more than 50% over random placement and even 15% in some cases over costlier, state-of-the-art placement algorithms.

Michelogiannakis, George↗

DOE OSTI2016

Contact Control, Version 1

The contact control code is a generalized force control scheme meant to interface with a robotic arm being controlled using the Robot Operating System (ROS). The code allows the user to specify a control scheme for each control dimension in a way that many different control task controllers could be built from the same generalized controller. The input to the code includes maximum velocity, maximum force, maximum displacement, and a control law assigned to each direction and the output is a 6 degree of freedom velocity command that is sent to the robot controller.

von Sternberg, Alex↗

DOE OSTI2016

Contact Control, Version 1

von Sternberg, Alex↗

DOE OSTI2024

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty) is a technique for estimating the uncertainty in a model's predictions for any regression task by approximating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the model's errors over the course of training. The approximated CDF, combined with a similarity search algorithm in the model's descriptor space, can then be used to estimate the likelihood that the model's predictions on any given test point will fall below a chosen threshold. LTAU-FF (LTAU in atomistic Force Fields) is the application of LTAU specifically for use with atomistic force fields.

Vita, JoshuaA↗

DOE OSTI2017

Simultaneous Estimation of Electromechanical Modes and Forced Oscillations

Over the past several years, great strides have been made in the effort to monitor the small-signal stability of power systems. These efforts focus on estimating electromechanical modes, which are a property of the system that dictate how generators in different parts of the system exchange energy. Though the algorithms designed for this task are powerful and important for reliable operation of the power system, they are susceptible to severe bias when forced oscillations are present in the system. Forced oscillations are fundamentally different from electromechanical oscillations in that they are the result of a rogue input to the system, rather than a property of the system itself. To address the presence of forced oscillations, the frequently used AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is adapted to include sinusoidal inputs, resulting in the AutoRegressive Moving Average plus Sinusoid (ARMA+S) model. From this model, a new Two-Stage Least Squares algorithm is derived to incorporate the forced oscillations, thereby enabling the simultaneous estimation of the electromechanical modes and the amplitude and phase of the forced oscillations. The method is validated using simulated power system data as well as data obtained from the western North American power system (wNAPS) and Eastern Interconnection (EI).

Electromechanical modes↗