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At least 271 records · Page 15

Using Supra-Arcade Downflows as Probes of Electron Acceleration During Solar Flares

Extracting information from coronal features above flares has become more reliable with the availability of increasingly higher spatial and temporal-resolution data in recent decades. We are now able to sufficiently probe the region high above long-duration flaring active regions where reconnection is expected to be continually occurring. Flows in the supra-arcade region, first observed with Yohkoh/SXT, have been theorized to be associated with newly-reconnected outflowing loops. High resolution data appears to confirm these assertions. Assuming that these flows are indeed reconnection outflows, then the detection of those directed toward the solar surface (i.e. downflowing) should be associated with particle acceleration between the current sheet and the loop footpoints rooted in the chromosphere. RHESSI observations of highly energetic particles with respect to downflow detections could potentially constrain electron acceleration models. I will discuss measurements of these supra-arcade downflows (SADs) in relation to reconnection model parameters and present preliminary findings comparing the downflow timings with high-energy RHESSI lightcurves.

Savage, Sabrina L.↗

Determining Trends in Impervious Cover for the Mobile Bay, AL Region for 1974-2008, Based on a Landsat Time Series

This presentation will discuss the development and use of Landsat-based impervious cover products in conjunction with land use land cover change products to assess multi-decadal urbanization across the Mobile Bay region at regional and watershed scales. This nationally important coastal region has undergone a variety of ephemeral and permanent land use land cover change since the mid-1970s, including gradual but consequential increases in urban surface cover. This urban sprawl corresponds with increased regional percent impervious cover. The region s coastal zone managers are concerned about the increasing percent impervious cover, since it can negatively influence water quality and is an important consideration for coastal conservation and restoration work. In response, we processed multi-temporal Landsat data to compute maps of percent impervious cover for multiple dates from 1974 through 2008, roughly at 5-year intervals. Each year of product was classified using one single date of leaf-on and leaf-off Landsat data in conjunction with Cubist software. We are assessing Landsat impervious cover product accuracy through comparisons to available reference data, including available NLCD impervious cover products from the USGS, raw Landsat data, plus higher spatial resolution aerial and satellite data. In particular, we are quantitatively comparing the 2008 Landsat impervious cover products to those from QuickBird 2.4-meter multispectral data. Initial visual comparisons with the QuickBird impervious cover product suggest that the 2008 Landsat product tends to underestimate impervious cover for high density urban areas and to overestimate impervious cover in established residential subdivisions mixed with forested cover. Landsat TM and ETM data appears to produce more accurate impervious cover products compared to those using lower resolution Landsat MSS data. Although imperfect, these Landsat impervious cover products have helped the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program visualize basic urbanization trends for multiple HUC-12 watersheds of concern to them and their constituents

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Impact of Emissions and Long-Range Transport on Multi-Decadal Aerosol Trends: Implications for Air Quality and Climate

We present a global model analysis of the impact of long-range transport and anthropogenic emissions on the aerosol trends in the major pollution regions in the northern hemisphere and in the Arctic in the past three decades. We will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model to analyze the multi-spatial and temporal scale data, including observations from Terra, Aqua, and CALIPSO satellites and from the long-term surface monitoring stations. We will analyze the source attribution (SA) and source-receptor (SR) relationships in North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, and the Arctic at the surface and free troposphere and establish the quantitative linkages between emissions from different source regions. We will discuss the implications for regional air quality and climate change.

Chin, Mian↗

Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage into a Land Surface Model: Evaluation 1 and Potential Value for Drought Monitoring in Western and Central Europe

A land surface model s ability to simulate states (e.g., soil moisture) and fluxes (e.g., runoff) is limited by uncertainties in meteorological forcing and parameter inputs as well as inadequacies in model physics. In this study, anomalies of terrestrial water storage (TWS) observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission were assimilated into the NASA Catchment land surface model in western and central Europe for a 7-year period, using a previously developed ensemble Kalman smoother. GRACE data assimilation led to improved runoff correlations with gauge data in 17 out of 18 hydrological basins, even in basins smaller than the effective resolution of GRACE. Improvements in root zone soil moisture were less conclusive, partly due to the shortness of the in situ data record. In addition to improving temporal correlations, GRACE data assimilation also reduced increasing trends in simulated monthly TWS and runoff associated with increasing rates of precipitation. GRACE assimilated root zone soil moisture and TWS fields exhibited significant changes in their dryness rankings relative to those without data assimilation, suggesting that GRACE data assimilation could have a substantial impact on drought monitoring. Signals of drought in GRACE TWS correlated well with MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data in most areas. Although they detected the same droughts during warm seasons, drought signatures in GRACE derived TWS exhibited greater persistence than those in NDVI throughout all seasons, in part due to limitations associated with the seasonality of vegetation.

Li, Bailing↗

Using Supra-Arcade Downflows as Probes of Particle Acceleration in Solar Flares

Extracting information from coronal features above flares has become more reliable with the availability of increasingly higher spatial- and temporal-resolution data in recent decades. We are now able to sufficiently probe the region high above long-duration flaring active regions where reconnection is expected to be continually occurring. Flows in the supra-arcade region, first observed with Yohkoh/SXT, have been theorized to be associated with newly-reconnected outflowing loops. High resolution data appears to confirm these assertions. Assuming that these flows are indeed reconnection outflows, then the detection of those directed toward the solar surface (i.e. downflowing) should be associated with particle acceleration between the current sheet and the loop footpoints rooted in the chromosphere. RHESSI observations of highly energetic particles with respect to downflow detections could potentially constrain electron acceleration models. We provide measurements of these supra-arcade downflows (SADs) in relation to reconnection model parameters and present preliminary findings comparing the downflow timings with high-energy RHESSI lightcurves.

Savage, Sabrina↗

Evaluating an Automated Approach for Monitoring Forest Disturbances in the Pacific Northwest from Logging, Fire and Insect Outbreaks with Landsat Time Series Data

Forests are the largest aboveground sink for atmospheric carbon (C), and understanding how they change through time is critical to reduce our C-cycle uncertainties. We investigated a strong decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 1991 in Pacific Northwest forests, observed with the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRRs). To understand the causal factors of this decline, we evaluated an automated classification method developed for Landsat time series stacks (LTSS) to map forest change. This method included: (1) multiple disturbance index thresholds; and (2) a spectral trajectory-based image analysis with multiple confidence thresholds. We produced 48 maps and verified their accuracy with air photos, monitoring trends in burn severity data and insect aerial detection survey data. Area-based accuracy estimates for change in forest cover resulted in producer's and user's accuracies of 0.21 +/- 0.06 to 0.38 +/- 0.05 for insect disturbance, 0.23 +/- 0.07 to 1 +/- 0 for burned area and 0.74 +/- 0.03 to 0.76 +/- 0.03 for logging. We believe that accuracy was low for insect disturbance because air photo reference data were temporally sparse, hence missing some outbreaks, and the annual anniversary time step is not dense enough to track defoliation and progressive stand mortality. Producer's and user's accuracy for burned area was low due to the temporally abrupt nature of fire and harvest with a similar response of spectral indices between the disturbance index and normalized burn ratio. We conclude that the spectral trajectory approach also captures multi-year stress that could be caused by climate, acid deposition, pathogens, partial harvest, thinning, etc. Our study focused on understanding the transferability of previously successful methods to new ecosystems and found that this automated method does not perform with the same accuracy in Pacific Northwest forests. Using a robust accuracy assessment, we demonstrate the difficulty of transferring change attribution methods to other ecosystems, which has implications for the development of automated detection/attribution approaches. Widespread disturbance was found within AVHRR-negative anomalies, but identifying causal factors in LTSS with adequate mapping accuracy for fire and insects proved to be elusive. Our results provide a background framework for future studies to improve methods for the accuracy assessment of automated LTSS classifications.

Landsat↗

The Large-Scale Current System During Auroral Substorms

We present an empirical model of the equivalent current system in the ionosphere during the peak of a classical bulge-type auroral sub storm. This model is derived from measurements made by ~110 ground magnetometer stations during 116 substorms. The data are temporally and spatially organized using global auroral images obtained by the Polar Visible Imaging System Earth Camera. The empirical equivalent current system displays three key features: a poleward shift of the westward electrojet connecting the postmidnight and premidnight components; a polar cap swirl; and significantly different magnitudes of the postmidnight and premidnight westward electrojets. This leads us to propose a two-wedge current system linking the ionosphere to the magnetosphere. The bulge current wedge is located in the premidnight region just equatorward of the open-closed field line boundary while another three-dimensional current system is located in the postmidnight region well within the auroral oval. We use Biot and Savart calculations and Tsyganenko mapping and show that this new model is a likely solution for the large-scale current system.

magnetic storms↗

Toward a Satellite-Derived Climatology of Blowing Snow Over Antarctica

Satellite lidar remote sensing of the atmosphere has been ongoing for more than a decade providing the opportunity to study atmospheric processes in great detail. Here we use 12 years of Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization measurements to derive a climatology of blowing snow layer height, optical depth, and frequency over Antarctica for the period 2006–2017. Limited to the vertical resolution of the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization data, our climatology includes all blowing snow layers greater than about 30 m in thickness for clear or optically thin cloud regions. Our results show that blowing snow occurs over 50% of the time over large regions with frequencies often exceeding 70%. The overall pattern of blowing snow frequency is fairly consistent from year to year, but there are regional differences. We examined the data for temporal trends in blowing snow properties and found significant trends only in blowing snow frequency. A small area of East Antarctica with generally low blowing snow frequency shows a statistically significant increase in blowing snow frequency ranging from 10% to 100% per decade. No significant trends in frequency were found in regions of high (>50%) blowing snow frequency, and only isolated small areas exhibited a decrease in frequency through the study period.

Palm, Stephen P.↗

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Optimal Landsat Data for Burn Severity Index Calculations: Implications for High Northern Latitudes Wildfire Research

Satellite remote sensing has been widely used for the evaluation of wildfire burn severity in various ecosystems. While a variety of remote sensing-based burn severity indices have been developed, the Landsat-based differ-enced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) presents the most widely-used approach to burn severity assessment for fire research and management. Although dNBR-based approaches have been continuously updated, including the development of the relative dNBR (RdNBR) and the Relativized Burn Ratio (RBR), one key obstacle for the reliable applications of the burn severity indices in the high northern latitudes has not been adequately addressed. Specifically, optimal Landsat image pairs are very rarely available for the calculation of the burn severity indices in certain regions of the high northern latitudes (HNL), resulting in the burn severity index outputs calculated for a large number of wildfires being considerably affected by non-fire-related factors. The suboptimal selection of image pairs may have partially contributed to the lack of consistency in the performance of the burn severity indices in the HNL regions. In this paper, we systematically evaluated the impacts of sub-optimal image pairs on signal stability through two sets of analyses conducted at different spatial scales. First, at the regional scale, we examined the burn severity indices calculated for a selection of wildfires in Alaska. Here, we demonstrate the inconsistent performance of the same index calculated based on Landsat data that are typically considered as “optimal”. In addition, we show that the calculated indices may be more prone to the negative impacts of these inconsistencies, thus leading to reduced reliability, when there is limited Landsat data availability. Second, at the continental scale, we show that certain areas in the HNL, especially Alaska during the pre-2000 era, are subject to the potentially strong negative impact associated with the limited data availability. Through systematically analyzing this issue, we hope to not only divert more attention to it but also to provide potential solutions, based on which further improvements that may be of particular importance for research on Arctic wildfires could be made.

Dong Chen↗

Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data

Growing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted interventions. Motivated by this, we study the problem of prediction of vaccine hesitancy at the ZIP Code level, referred to as the VaxHesitancy problem. A significant challenge for this problem is the lack of high-resolution data that indicates hesitancy. Here, we develop a hybrid VaxHesSTL framework that combines a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to address the VaxHesitancy problem. The GNN uses a ZIP Code-level network to capture spatial signals from neighboring areas, while the RNN models the temporal dynamics present in the data. We train and evaluate VaxHesSTL using a large dataset, namely the All-Payer Claims Databases (APCD), for Virginia, consisting of insurance claims from over five million individuals for six years. We find that an aggregated contact network or graph, developed from a detailed activity-based population network, plays an important role in the performance of VaxHesSTL, compared to graph models based solely on spatial proximity. Experiments demonstrate that VaxHesSTL outperforms a range of state-of-the-art baselines, which rely solely on historical time series data without accounting for spatial relationships. Since hesitancy data at higher spatial resolution is often unavailable or hard to get, we incorporate an active learning approach with our VaxHesSTL framework to optimize the training set without compromising the prediction performance. We find that hesitancy data for only 18% of ZIP Codes selected by active learning allows us to forecast hesitancy for all the ZIP Codes in the Virginia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

BATSE flare observations in Solar Cycle 22

The Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) group at GSFC has developed and is maintaining a quick-look analysis system for solar flare hard x-ray data from the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on the recently launched Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory (GRO). The instrument consists, in part, of 8 large planar detectors, each 2025 sq cm, placed on the corners of the GRO spacecraft with the orientation of the faces being those of a regular octahedron. Although optimized for the detection of gamma-ray bursts, these detectors are far more sensitive than any previous spacecraft-borne hard x-ray flare instrumentation both for the detection of small microflares and the resolution of fine temporal structures. The data in this BATSE solar data base are from the discriminator large area (DISCLA) rates. From each of eight detectors there are hard x-ray data in four energy channels, 25-50, 50-100, 100-300, and greater than 300 keV with a time resolution of 1.024 seconds. These data are suitable for temporal correlation with data at other wavelengths, and they provide a first look into the BATSE and other GRO instrument flare data sets. The BATSE and other GRO principle investigator groups should be contacted for the availability of data sets at higher time or spectral resolution or at higher energies.

Schwartz, R. A.↗

Earth Science Data Analytics: Preparing for Extracting Knowledge from Information

Data analytics is the process of examining large amounts of data of a variety of types to uncover hidden patterns, unknown correlations and other useful information. Data analytics is a broad term that includes data analysis, as well as an understanding of the cognitive processes an analyst uses to understand problems and explore data in meaningful ways. Analytics also include data extraction, transformation, and reduction, utilizing specific tools, techniques, and methods. Turning to data science, definitions of data science sound very similar to those of data analytics (which leads to a lot of the confusion between the two). But the skills needed for both, co-analyzing large amounts of heterogeneous data, understanding and utilizing relevant tools and techniques, and subject matter expertise, although similar, serve different purposes. Data Analytics takes on a practitioners approach to applying expertise and skills to solve issues and gain subject knowledge. Data Science, is more theoretical (research in itself) in nature, providing strategic actionable insights and new innovative methodologies. Earth Science Data Analytics (ESDA) is the process of examining, preparing, reducing, and analyzing large amounts of spatial (multi-dimensional), temporal, or spectral data using a variety of data types to uncover patterns, correlations and other information, to better understand our Earth. The large variety of datasets (temporal spatial differences, data types, formats, etc.) invite the need for data analytics skills that understand the science domain, and data preparation, reduction, and analysis techniques, from a practitioners point of view. The application of these skills to ESDA is the focus of this presentation. The Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP) Federation Earth Science Data Analytics (ESDA) Cluster was created in recognition of the practical need to facilitate the co-analysis of large amounts of data and information for Earth science. Thus, from a to advance science point of view: On the continuum of ever evolving data management systems, we need to understand and develop ways that allow for the variety of data relationships to be examined, and information to be manipulated, such that knowledge can be enhanced, to facilitate science. Recognizing the importance and potential impacts of the unlimited ways to co-analyze heterogeneous datasets, now and especially in the future, one of the objectives of the ESDA cluster is to facilitate the preparation of individuals to understand and apply needed skills to Earth science data analytics. Pinpointing and communicating the needed skills and expertise is new, and not easy. Information technology is just beginning to provide the tools for advancing the analysis of heterogeneous datasets in a big way, thus, providing opportunity to discover unobvious scientific relationships, previously invisible to the science eye. And it is not easy It takes individuals, or teams of individuals, with just the right combination of skills to understand the data and develop the methods to glean knowledge out of data and information. In addition, whereas definitions of data science and big data are (more or less) available (summarized in Reference 5), Earth science data analytics is virtually ignored in the literature, (barring a few excellent sources).

data analytics↗

Comparison of multi-temporal NOAA-AVHRR and SPOT-XS satellite data for mapping land-cover dynamics in the West African Sahel

Multi-resolution and multi-temporal remote sensing data (SPOT-XS and AVHRR) were evaluated for mapping local land-cover dynamics in the Sahel of West Africa. The aim of this research was to evaluate the agricultural information that could be derived from both high and low spatial resolution data in areas where there is very often limited ground information. A combination of raster-based image processing and vector-based geographical information system mapping was found to be effective for understanding both spatial and spectral land-cover dynamics. The SPOT data proved useful for mapping local land-cover classes in a dominantly recessive agricultural region. The AVHRR-LAC data could be used to map the dynamics of riparian vegetation, but not the changes associated with recession agriculture. In areas where there was a complex mixture of recession and irrigated agriculture, as well as riparian vegetation, the AVHRR data did not provide an accurate temporal assessment of vegetation dynamics.

Marsh, S. E.↗

Filling data analysis gaps in time-resolved crystallography by machine learning

There is a growing understanding of the structural dynamics of biological molecules fueled by x-ray crystallography experiments. Time-resolved serial femtosecond crystallography (TR-SFX) with x-ray Free Electron Lasers allows the measurement of ultrafast structural changes in proteins. Nevertheless, this technique comes with some limitations. One major challenge is the quality of data from TR-SFX measurements, which often faces issues like data sparsity, partial recording of Bragg reflections, timing errors, and pixel noise. To overcome these difficulties, conventionally, large volumes of data are collected and grouped into a few temporal bins. The data in each bin are then averaged and paired with the mean of their corresponding jittered timestamps. This procedure provides one structure per bin, resulting in a limited number of averaged structures for the entire time interval spanned by the experiment. Therefore, the information on ultrafast structural dynamics at high temporal resolution is lost. This has initiated research for advanced methods of analyzing experimental TR-SFX data beyond the standard binning and averaging method. To address this problem, we use a machine learning algorithm called Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis (NLSA), which has emerged as a promising technique for studying the dynamics of complex systems. In this work, we demonstrate the power of this algorithm using synthetic x-ray diffraction snapshots from a protein with significant data incompleteness, timing uncertainties, and noise. Our study confirms that NLSA is a suitable approach that effectively mitigates the effects of these artifacts in TR-SFX data and recovers accurate structural dynamics information hidden in such data.

Trujillo, Justin (ORCID:0000000285505360)↗

State Identification for Planetary Rovers: Learning and Recognition

A planetary rover must be able to identify states where it should stop or change its plan. With limited and infrequent communication from ground, the rover must recognize states accurately. However, the sensor data is inherently noisy, so identifying the temporal patterns of data that correspond to interesting or important states becomes a complex problem. In this paper, we present an approach to state identification using second-order Hidden Markov Models. Models are trained automatically on a set of labeled training data; the rover uses those models to identify its state from the observed data. The approach is demonstrated on data from a planetary rover platform.

Aycard, Olivier↗

Code for the manuscript "Mori-Zwanzig Modal Decomposition"

We would like to create an open source repository in LANL's github on code written in Julia, in which we implement and extend the data-driven Mori-Zwanzig method for extracting large-scale spatio-temporal structures from data, which we call MZMD. This method is an extension of Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) in which Mori-Zwanzig memory kernels are included into the associated companion matrix. In the code we would like to release, we apply MZMD to a flow over a cylinder with Reynolds number 100 rather than the much larger data set used in the associated manuscript. DMD is used extensively in the fluid dynamics community mainly for extracting large scale spatio-temporal structures (patters) from flow data. This is useful for understanding the key mechanisms that generate certain complex dynamical process relevant in engineering design. In MZMD, we improve upon DMD by adding the Mori-Zwanzig memory kernels, and show this improvement is especially important in strongly nonlinear regions of the flow.

Woodward, Michael↗